Sharp or Square - AFC SOUTH BETTING PREVIEW: Jaguars, Texans, Titans & Colts Predictions

Summary

The Herd with Colin Cowherd — "Sharp or Square": AFC South Betting Preview

Date: August 5, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume — Sharper Square

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Episode Overview

This episode is part two of Sharper Square's eight-part NFL division preview series, focusing on the AFC South. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter bring their betting expertise to breakdown the division's win totals, playoff odds, and Super Bowl bets for the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans. The tone is lively and opinionated, with plenty of personal insights and friendly banter.

Main Theme:
Where is the betting value in the AFC South? Are the Texans legit favorites, can the Jaguars repeat, will the Colts recover, and do the Titans have dark horse potential with their new regime?

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Listener Feedback & Quarterback Rankings Criteria

(Timestamp: 02:16–08:17)

• Chad defends his "most feared quarterbacks in final two-minute situations" list amid feedback for leaving off Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and others.
• Simon underscores his evaluation emphasizes career accomplishments, especially Super Bowls:

  “Super Bowls do matter, right?... Dan Marino, greatest pass I’ve ever seen... Would we ever put him above Peyton Manning? No. Peyton has the ring.” (06:55 – Simon)

• Both hosts discuss recency bias regarding young QBs like Jaden Daniels and caution against overvaluing "one great year."
• Simon explains lingering skepticism with newcomers:

  “I need more time with guys. Jaden Daniels, no one's doubting the talent... but I can't put him over a guy like Sam Darnold right now.” (08:08 – Simon)

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2. Houston Texans: "It's Their Division to Lose"

(Timestamp: 12:42–17:24)

• Chad is bullish:

  “It’s Texans division, easily to win… There are far and above to me, the best team in this division.” (12:42 – Chad)

• Highlights:
  • Returned all 11 defensive starters (“I can’t bang people over the head enough about how crazy that is,” 13:38 – Simon)
  • Defensive line is elite after adding Danielle Hunter.
  • Uncertainty surrounds CJ Stroud’s regression and lackluster “swag” in camp.
  • Offensive line has been rebuilt with multiple new pieces; growing pains expected early.
  • Genuine Super Bowl upside if CJ Stroud returns to form.
• Betting Analysis:
  • Over 9.5 wins strongly endorsed.
  • +120 division odds seen as real value.
  • Main threat: O-line and CJ Stroud’s stagnation.

Quotable Moment

“CJ just settling for field goals. He could not move or advance the ball… he’s played that poor in such important games. So huge year for CJ.” (17:24 – Chad)

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3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tempting But “Feels Like a Trap”

(Timestamp: 25:18–30:56)

• Spotlight on OC Liam Coen’s work “turning around” Trevor Lawrence, and their roller-coaster 2025 season that ended with a division title.
• Trevor’s inconsistency and lack of O-line upgrades are big red flags.
• Defense had some turnover luck, which suggests likely regression.
• Loss of RB Travis Etienne is non-trivial; replacement Toon brings a different style.
• Simon warns:

  “There are too many questions… Not just defensively, but they had a lot of Bears to them, a lot of turnover luck… I’m not going to fall for the trap.” (28:37 – Simon)

• Betting Analysis:
  • +210 for the division is “juicy” but suspiciously high.
  • Books “begging” you to take the Jaguars—sometimes a bad sign.

  “It’s a trap.” (30:54 – Chad)

• No bets placed; possible mild consideration for win total “over” closer to season.

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4. Indianapolis Colts: The Year Before the Year

(Timestamp: 30:56–37:33)

• Daniel Jones returning from Achilles injury; expectations tempered.
• Team suffered epic collapse in 2025 after 8–2 start, missing playoffs, and losing key WR Michael Pittman.
• GM Chris Ballard’s job status and failed “win-now” trades (notably for Sauce Gardner) come under scrutiny.
• Simon:

  “This feels like the year before the year… Everything on this team screams under.” (32:45 – Simon)

• Shane Steichen praised as a play caller, but talent and health worries run too deep for optimism.
• Betting Analysis:
  • Under on win total favored.
  • Possible last-place finish in division.
  • Lament for local Indy sports fans; “What a bad run for Indianapolis sports since June of 2025…” (36:06 – Simon)

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5. Tennessee Titans: Year Before the Year—But Intriguing Longshot

(Timestamp: 39:46–45:56)

• New regime: Robert Saleh (HC), Brian Daboll (OC), Gus Bradley (DC).
• 3–14 in 2025, but invested in youth with Cam Ward (QB) and drafted Carnell Tate (WR).
• Saleh importing former Jets; massive contracts to defensive linemen.
• Simon’s hot take:

  “I am tempted here… I did place a little bet at +800 to win the division. The number is too big. I think they’re not going to be as bad as they were last year.” (42:17 – Simon)

• Cam Ward flashed as a rookie but struggled with turnovers; Saleh’s approach expected to be much tougher.
• Offense’s success hinges on Tate, RB Tony Pollard, and a better O-line.
• Betting Analysis:
  • +800 to win division is “just too big” not to take a flyer.
  • Over 6.5 wins considered, but “division bet has better value.”
• Both hosts see clear hierarchy: Houston > Jaguars > Titans/Colts.

Quotable Moment

“Our dream scenario would be it’s week 16, 17… Tennessee’s a game behind Houston and we can hedge.” (47:49 – Chad)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On CJ Stroud:

  “He looks like a seventh grader getting dropped off at school… what has happened to CJ?” (13:01 – Simon)

• On Jaguars O-coordinator Liam Coen:

  “He would not even bail Trevor Lawrence out… he’d just be like, screw you, we’re taking the five yard penalty… come over here, I’m going to yell at you.” (24:23 – Chad)

• On the Colts:

  “Everything on this team screams under. Not from a season from hell because they still have talent, but if you have a QB coming back too early, that’s going to create turmoil…” (34:23 – Simon)

• On Titans Betting:

  “If I were doing this, I would take the flyer on the +800… just better value…” (47:49 – Chad)

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Important Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------|---------------| | QB List, Listener Feedback | 02:16–09:28 | | Texans Analysis | 12:42–18:24 | | Jaguars Analysis | 24:55–30:56 | | Colts Analysis | 30:56–37:33 | | Titans Analysis | 39:46–47:49 |

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Episode Takeaways

• Texans: Return all defensive starters, revamped O-line; heavy favorite for hosts. Over 9.5 wins and +120 division are best bets.
• Jaguars: Tempting at +210 but regression likely; hosts recommend caution.
• Colts: Talent drained, injury woes; strong “under” sentiment.
• Titans: New coach, new hope, long odds; sprinkle longshot division bet (+800) as a fun hedge.
• AFC South Outlook: “It’s Houston, clearly, and then everyone else.”

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Final Note
Hosts will be back next episode to preview the NFC West. “Until next time. Love you. Duuvaaal.”

Transcript

[Chad Millman]

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human. With the American Express Platinum card, you

[Simon Hunter]

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[Simon Hunter]

down to kill us.

[Chad Millman]

And now they're hunting down immigrants to deport them.

[Simon Hunter]

This is First America, the true story

[Chad Millman]

of how the United States came to

[Simon Hunter]

be and how we got to this present moment. Listen to First America on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Bill, why is my eye twitching? Does this mean I'm in perimenopause? Where's my phone?

[Chad Millman]

Juliana, maybe we can ask an actual human.

[Simon Hunter]

Yes, because I have questions and I bet you do too. Like, is it normal to sleep in separate bedrooms?

[Chad Millman]

We do that.

[Simon Hunter]

And I still need to know why my poop's been green.

[Chad Millman]

We've got actual people answering these exact questions. Listen to Bill and Juliana, the podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts.

[Simon Hunter]

Paul Verze here, and I wanna talk to you about Paul's best podcast, Will Ferrell's Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio. I sit down each week with a special guest and we discuss the absol. Absolute best of things.

[Chad Millman]

It's that and then there's everything else. Dude, his whole life has sounded like

[Simon Hunter]

the first drop of a roller coaster.

[Chad Millman]

I mean, I can't even tell you, Paul, how crazy it was. It was insane.

[Simon Hunter]

Listen to Paul's best podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock that we are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always. Bye. My co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Diamond Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Chad Millman]

Chad, how much hate or love did you receive for your top 10 list?

[Simon Hunter]

You know, it's so interesting, Simon, because I like to go into the YouTube comments and I'll. I'll reply to people. And so I was doing that.

[Chad Millman]

Real sicko. Chad is here.

[Simon Hunter]

I know I like to engage. So I was doing that yesterday and. Or not yesterday. What was I doing? I can't remember. Anyways, and I was replying to people. It's interesting. A lot more love for Jared Goff than I expected. And Sam Darnold fans or Seahawks fans, just apoplectic that he was not on the list. And I, you know, in a reasonable way, tried to explain my list from my point of view, as I said on the show, is really about what quarterbacks am I most afraid to have bet against in the final two minutes of the game or who am I most excited that I bet on against in the final two minutes of a game. That's my criteria. That's why it's a different list and a different point of view. We're on a betting show. I'm not trying to go on, get up and say, these are the most talented quarterbacks. These are the best quarterbacks statistically. These are the quarterbacks who in the final two minutes of a game either want to be all in on or I am super upset that I did not go all in on them. Sam Darnold isn't on that list for me. Jared Goff isn't on that list for me. That, that, that was interesting to me. I don't know what kind of response

[Chad Millman]

you've gotten, you know, but, yeah, I, I agree with that.

[Simon Hunter]

People don't like that. You, you people are really against you. And Jalen Hurts. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Again, I could defend them more. I don't want to take up too much of Rich's time. Right. I, I, as much as me and Chad loved hearing our own voices, we did have a guest on, so I could spend, you know, time, tons of time on it. I know Matt Mitchell threw a conniption about it, which I get. Right. He's a Bills guy. He's got to defend his guy. And my viewpoint, though, which means I talk about we do our list differently. My viewpoint is it's all about what you've accomplished in your career. No one's saying Josh Allen hasn't accomplished a ton in his career. Adam literally ranked as the fourth best quarterback in all football right now. But Jalen Hurts has accomplished more career than any quarterback in Bill's history. I mean, what are we doing here? For real, people, like Super Bowls do matter, right? Sam Darnold, we give him respect about his Super Bowl. Is he in our top 10 list? He led the league in turnovers. Did he lead that team? No. Now Sandon makes it back to another super bowl and gets outplayed by Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson or Mahomes. Yeah. I would say me and Chad would have a different view of him. He beat a banged up Patriots team. So I feel your paint, Seahawks fan. I just I couldn't get there with it. And between the Josh Allen and Hertz thing, I've said it a million times. No one doubts the talent level of Josh Allen. What I'm doubting is which Rich even put it out there. Rich said he has the most playoff wins in whatever it is last 5 years NFL, more wins than Mahomes, more wins than Hurts. That's damning. That's not a good thing. Like him and McDermott had the record for most wins without a Super bowl appearance. NFL history. That's not a good thing. The league, the Super Bowl's been around for 60 years. So that's just my point that I just, I get where they're coming from. It's just I think we're going to look back in 10 years differently at Jalen Hurts than people look at him right now. He's, he's too controversial. Where this is a man that we've been waiting for a running quarterback to take the NFL to another level. You have that in Hertz. The man literally went to the NFL super bowl, set the record for most rushing yards and then broke it his next appearance. So it's like we're in a weird stage where people still want him. This six, five, blonde haired white guy dropping back and throwing the ball 80 yards. Hertz can still throw that ball 80 yards. He just doesn't look as sexy as Herbert doing it. It's just we're really weird about our eye test here. So yeah, it's, it's my job to defend his honor. And I just, I had Stafford above him because what Stafford's more accomplished than Hurts. That's my whole point here, people. I'm not trying to ding these people. It's just my viewpoint of who's accomplished more in this league and the day Super Bowls matter. Dan Marino, greatest pass I've ever seen in the football. Would we, any of us ever put him above Peyton Manning? No. Spade Manning has the ring. So that's just my whole point. I just, I, I, People were very upset, Chad, not just our fans. I had professional better saved me up. Being like, you're too disrespectful to Josh Allen. It's like, am I though? I had him in the top five and I think one year me and you both had him over Mahomes. This is when mom's only had one super bowl ring and I felt dirty doing it. So I love doing those lists. It's fun hearing from people. Oh yeah, yeah. I definitely agree with people. The Sam Darnold one He did slip my mind, honestly. Like I probably would have had him in that 13, 14 range. But I think we're in agreement. I don't think either of us will have them in our top 10.

[Simon Hunter]

No. The other one that stood out to me, a couple comments was Jaden Daniels. And my comment to folks who were asking about Jaden Daniels was there's probably a little bit of recency bias there and that he, you know, he wasn't in top form last year. He was injured a lot last year. And so, you know, I, in preparation for this, I mentioned this in the comments. Nate Tice Football 301 podcast he had on Bill Barnwell and Greg Rosenthal a couple months ago and they did sort of a snake draft of top quarterbacks. They went through one through 18 and Jaden Daniels, I think someone chose him to be in their top 10 and I could see the argument because when he was healthy he was so good. But I don't want to. I actually give more credence to a quarterback who was terrible one year like Caleb Williams and then improved markedly in the second year than a quarterback who came from nowhere, had an incredibly great year. We've seen it with CJ Stroud and then there's regression. So I don't know what we're getting from Jaden Daniels yet. And so I do feel confident with Caleb Williams and there being progress versus the jury is still out with Jaden Daniels.

[Chad Millman]

So he burned us too though, right? Chad? We both had our top 10 last year and we said they're going to regress this year. He totally fell on his face. You can say you can blame all the injuries you want but when he was playing, he was, wasn't playing that well either. So that's why I didn't have Drake May. Like when I heard a lot from Drake May haters. It's one year I need. I can't keep doing this thing where I buy guys after one year. I need, I need to start being more firm on. I need more time with guys. And again that goes back to my Jalen hurts argument. Five years as a five year starter. He's top three in touchdowns, wins and rushing yards. That stuff matters. It's like being healthy on the field, being available. It matters. So Jane Daniels, me and Chad are. No one's down the talent level. But that's a great point, Chad. It's like I just, I came and put him over a guy like Sam Darnold right now. Like, it's just Sam Darnold is consistently available for his teams. He's played now multiple seasons for multiple different teams, doesn't miss games. That's, that's important. You see why that's important. He led his team to a Super bowl. So. Jaden Daniels. Yeah, that's, that's what I didn't hear too many people complaining about. That's definitely one in the back of my mind now, next year where it's like, is that another guy that we could see bounce back or is that just a one, one hit wonder?

[Simon Hunter]

Yep. I also liked in the comments, Dak was getting some love also. And again, I read all the comments. I try to respond as many as possible. A lot of comments about our conversation on the Odyssey and whether or not we loved it too much. For the record, I tried to be clear. I thought the filmmaking was incredibly ambitious. I'm not sold on the story. And for the record, also, the person who wrote the translation of the Odyssey that Christopher Nolan based on, based the movie on thinks the movie is terrible. So it's starting to generate after sort of all the glory and love and you know, deification of Nolan and Matt Damon, starting to get a little bit of, little bit of blowback on the Odyssey. So I'm excited.

[Chad Millman]

You need haters in life, Chad. You know the deal. We need doubters, we need haters. That's just part of the course.

[Simon Hunter]

Also, one more comment, which I love. The first comment was someone saying amidst all the media chaos in the world, I like that Chad and Simon will still be doing the same show for however long they can do it. And I said in the comments, oh my God. Simon and I just talked about this on the phone yesterday. Anyways, keep the comments coming. I'll be in there. I will be in there. Listen, we're doing part two of our annual eight part Division by Division Info Betting preview moving into the AFC south today. Big, big topic, Simon. Obviously Trevor Lawrence wasn't on our list. Some people asking about that. Can we see Liam Cohen take Trevor Lawrence to the next level? What the hell is going on with CJ Stroud? Is he gonna take a next step? Is he going to further regress? Is Robert Salah going to save the Titans? Is the window closed for the Colts? Setting the table. Betting markets show a very even division. Top to bottom. Houston win totals nine and a half, minus 120 to the over. Jacksonville eight and a half, minus 140 to the over. Again from Hard Rock bet. Indianapolis Colts seven and a half minus 135 to the over. Tennessee minus six and a half, minus 110 on both sides. All right. Simon Hunter, Houston Texans. This team did not start strong and then they had a defense that did not quit and a coach and Demico Ryan's who keeps them playing at a very high level and is really a guy that a lot of people would want to play for. So they finish 12 and 5. They crush Aaron Rodgers in the Steelers in the wild card before losing New England in the divisional round. Tough, tough game for them in the divisional round. Plus 120 to win the division. They are the favorites 9 to 1 to win the conference, 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Look, I think we need to have a conversation about the Jaguars on the upswing and the Texans plateauing. Where is your head right now?

[Chad Millman]

It's Texans division, easily to win. And that's if I, if I'm putting my money heavily invested into a team in this division. It's got to be Houston. It's a team that's returned all 11 other defensive starters. And I mean we, we can talk announcement about it. Dimiko Ryan's how smart he is. Defensive mind, the talent they have.

[Simon Hunter]

Defensive so good.

[Chad Millman]

Oh my God, they might have two top five, top seven, depending on your grades. The ends for this team, right? And you know, it's when they got Hunter, I was like, okay, that's, that's a big deal, right? Because now they're gonna have one, one of them's gonna one on one matchups on the edges. You saw last year, I think they both had double digit sacks. Like they were just so dominant. And you know, I don't want to say he's lost all his aura, but CJ Strout, I don't know if you saw that video of him walking into camp the other day, Chad. And if you have anyone out there, you need to go look it up. He looks like a seventh grader getting dropped off at school. The way he walks style, the way, yeah, the mannerisms. It's so bizarre where it's like, what has happened to cj? He does not have the swag or the confidence or whatever it was that he had after that first year. Oh my God, I hope you can find it. Because this is such a talented team. And our questions are the offensive line. And this has been what, Chad, you're now, this is your four of us being like, we think they have the talent, do they have the offensive line? And we've seen every year CJ has gotten worse since that rookie year. And that's just the accumulation of hits and bad coaching in My opinion offensively and you know, is David Montgomery the answer for them? I think he's going to help. I do think he's going to help though. I know he's not the exact answer looking for but this is a veteran that's consistent and that's something they're going to need. Where their defense gives them short fields, that's what was so impressive last year was just felt like every time they needed to, they had the ball in their opponent's 30 or 40. But CJ just settling for field goals. He could not move or advance the ball. And it was just, I mean I don't remember their kicker felt like every game it was getting like five field goals. It was just bizarre award where they just could not score offensively and that cost them early in the year. Would they start. Oh and three. Chad was zero and four. It was something crazy like that. And they obviously turned it around and still made the playoffs. But they didn't win their division because of it. Right. That's why Jacksonville did so just projecting out. We expect them to have a better season. They did last year. Right. Not to start as poor. The, the bringing back the 11 starters. I can't bang people over the head enough about how crazy that is. Like this is already a top three defense. The continuity now of having those guys back with d' Ameco again, it's just, it's all on CJ So just value wise, I like it. I have them at 11 wins, so nine and a half. No problem betting that over if you want to. Divisionally, they're plus 120. No issue betting that either. And we'll obviously get these other teams, but it's just, it's all lined up for Houston. They're. They're far and above to me, the best team in this division. The question would be their offensive line obviously in CJ but when I look at both those obstacles right now, I, I do think their offensive line is going to be better than it has been years previously, which isn't saying much.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, look, that's where they put their, that's where they put their money. And there's a lot of questions right now and there's been a lot of speculation during the off season did they do enough? Did they pay attention to it? It's not where. It's just, it's not where anyone feels like it should be yet. But they did spend a first round pick on it. Keelan Rutledge from the Guard from Georgia Tech. They added Braden Smith from the Colts they added Wyatt Teller from the Browns, they added Evan Brown from the Cards. Like, they're basically giving CJ a brand new offensive line. So part of that. Okay, they're recognizing part of that is everyone knows how important it is for an offensive line to be coordinated and play well together. So is that going to be a hindrance early in the year? And again, it's also about the offense. Like he, they continue to change offensive coordinators on this team and how are they going to find an offense that plays to CJ's strengths. His ability to throw the ball downfield was always something that separated him and be accurate with those. And that's been getting increasingly worse. Like, it's weird to be thinking that we're talking about CJ Stroud as the reason why this team might not win the division, but it kind of is all on him at this point. He is the difference between this team being a Super bowl contender in an incredibly competitive conference and this team, again, needing to rely on, you know, their field goal kicker and their defense. That's what it is. That's it.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. And it's. And like you said, it's cj. As they've gotten tape on him, we said he's regressed in many ways, but that's, that's the way the league is. Right. They're going to keep attacking your strengths and try to expose your weaknesses. And we've seen that over the years. I mean, that. Those playoff games against Pittsburgh and New England, I can't get them out of my mind. That's why me and you don't even bat an eye thinking about him as a top 10 guys. He's not even a top 15. Maybe potentially top 20. Yeah, he's played that poor in such important games. So huge year for cj. And obviously contract wise, they. He, if he had done what he needed to do, he had been paid right now.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, yeah.

[Chad Millman]

He knows obviously what, what's going on as well. So, yeah, it's. It's all there for Houston. It's all lined up for them. And I obviously love the fact they won the division last year because it helps them with an easier schedule. But we'll see. It's the way the league is. The new year, it's. There's not that big of a difference between the two or the one in your division. Right. Instead of playing the Patriots, they play Josh Allen now like that. That actually does kind of matter. So, yeah, it's. It's all there for Houston.

[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

I'm Mangish Chitigarh and I'm back with

[Simon Hunter]

a new season of the podcast Skyline Drive. This time I'm diving into a rabbit

[Chad Millman]

hole of peptides, organoids, blood, boys, blue zones and brain replacement.

[Simon Hunter]

To try to understand what this longevity obsession is all about and what it really means to live forever for all

[Chad Millman]

of us,

[Simon Hunter]

I learned about some rad science.

[Chad Millman]

I can make a brain for you and then we can test what drug

[Simon Hunter]

is the best for your brain as opposed to his brain. Here are some hard truths.

[Chad Millman]

I would expect Indians to age faster,

[Simon Hunter]

but I did not expect it to be almost a four to five year acceleration and get myself into a world of trouble. I'd say probably start bone smashing. That doesn't work.

[Chad Millman]

Make it look more defined.

[Simon Hunter]

They say it Works? I don't know. Listen to Skyline Drive, how to Live Forever on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

[Chad Millman]

or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Jake Brennan, and on my podcast

[Simon Hunter]

Hollywoodland, I revisit some of the biggest

[Chad Millman]

stories from Hollywood history, separating the myths people want to believe from the reality underneath them. Like how the story of Marilyn Monroe isn't just the story of a Hollywood icon.

[Simon Hunter]

Marilyn Monroe has become so iconic that

[Chad Millman]

her death can only be explained through conspiracy theories. And for some fans who can't let

[Simon Hunter]

go, these stories have metastasized from conjecture to accepted fact. So on August 4, 1962, Marilyn Monroe died.

[Chad Millman]

Then the rumors started and she died again.

[Simon Hunter]

And now we're going to set the record straight and learn about the way Marilyn Monroe actually died.

[Chad Millman]

The third way. Learn more about what happens when fame,

[Simon Hunter]

media obsession, and conspiracy collide.

[Chad Millman]

Listen to Hollywoodland on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We've all been there. We've had seasons that have shaken everything. The question is, what remains when the shaking stops? Hi, I'm Gary Valenciano, and on my podcast Unshaken with Gary Vee, I sit

[Simon Hunter]

down with amazing personalities and we talk

[Chad Millman]

about the seasons that nearly broke them,

[Simon Hunter]

the lows that carried them to their highs. Listen to Unshaken with Gary Vee on

[Chad Millman]

the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or.

[Simon Hunter]

Or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

The Declaration, which is full of these beautifully rendered, you know, sentences and paragraphs about enlightenment ideals, does also have this darker history to it. Why is it important for the darker part of the Declaration of Independence and the American Revolution? Why is it important that Americans know about it? Well, if we don't understand the full context in which our nation was founded, we won't understand the full context in which our nation now finds itself. I'm Rebecca Nagle. Gohin Tawa Don Jaleka Yitli Gay la citizen of Cherokee Nation.

[Simon Hunter]

Are you guys big Chiefs fans? Hell, yeah. This is First America, the true story of how the United States came to be and how we got to this present moment. Listen to First America on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Speaking of Florida Sun, Jacksonville Jaguars Liam Cohn. I think we both. We both agree we love this guy. Huge, huge Liam Cohn fans. And one of our favorite conversation points last year was Liam Cones facial expressions when Trevor Lawrence made an idiotic, boneheaded mistake. Or the way he would not even bail Trevor Lawrence out When it was getting so late in the play clock and he was clearly in the wrong play and was trying to get out of it, meeting Trevor Lawrence and Liam Kong would not call a timeout. He would just be like, screw you, we're taking the five yard penalty. You're going to come over here, I'm going to yell at you, I'm going to explain to you what you're supposed to do and hopefully at some point it gets into your pretty little head. So what happens this year? They go 13 and 4 last year they win the division, can they run it back? Is Trevor Lawrence smarter? Is this a team that has the talent? Because like I think their defense is pretty good and I do think that like offensively there are moments where Trevor Lawrence is clearly the best quarterback in the division. So why don't I want to bet on this team?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, right. And it's a team that come into this year. I was shocked to see that they weren't the favorite over Houston. And maybe you could say, well that is because of the first by schedule and all that. But yeah, that it's a team in the second half of the season. You could say they were probably the best team in football. I mean that's hard argument Liam Cohen

[Simon Hunter]

did last year to get this team turned around was, was amazing.

[Chad Millman]

And they just were so well coached offensively. Like, you know, me and Chad were giving Trevor Lawrence hard time because he looked like an idiot. He looked totally lost for the first six, seven weeks, which that makes sense in a new offense. But we were really based our opinion of how Liam was treating him like how we both envisioned that. And obviously the second half, Trevor was what we've all expected to be, right? This number one pick, this guy who's, you know, one of the top rated players ever come out of high school, dominated college and then came the league and in that draft class, he's only honestly the only one left standing. He really was a tier above everyone else in many ways. And just watching him play, we see the talent. It's just so inconsistent. And I mean Chad said their defense was improved last year. Now to me, the interesting thing I they didn't improve the offensive line, which I thought was really interesting. You know they have a ton of talent receiving wise. Right. We already know, you know, Hunter, I believe now they've seen he's going to be a cornerback, which I agree with. I don't think they need another receiver. They're, they're good in that position. But the fact that they're going to Just what we said from the get go. There's a reason there aren't two way players in this league. The body can't hold up. His first season, he didn't even last. Now you can say that was a fluke injury, but it's what we've been preaching. It's just, it's different than college football. This is growing men hitting you consistently in this league. It's really hard to have your body hold up, let alone taking hits and delivering hits. Thank God Hunter is now going to play one position which I think is going to be better for this Jaguars team. I think as a corner I much prefer him than I do as wide receiver, especially footwork wise. So, you know, the, the reason I'm not crazy about betting this team is just because I do think they're gonna have regression. I do think as much I love Liam Cohen's offense, I think giving these other teams an offseason to look at what they did with Trevor Lawrence, they're going to attack that. Can he adjust that? You know, to be seen. But it's just when I look at in this whole division who has the most dominant group, I do put Houston way above everyone else with that defense. I just think that is such a dominant group. I know exactly what I'm getting. I have too many questions still about this Jaguars team. Not just defensively, you know, not that they weren't lucky last year, but they had a lot of Bears to them, a lot of turnover luck. Where the Bears, as bad as their defense might have been, what was it a 33, 35 year old safety of yours, Chad, was it? I forget who it was, but he had like five picks, I feel like. And, and it was like four games in a row. A lot of things bounced their way. Bears wise defensively feels the same way with the Jaguars. Now it's, it's good coaching, right, Putting your guys in the right position, but we talk all the time when you look at those charts, you have to bet regression on certain sides of the ball and I think there'll be aggression defensively on the turnover look. And offensively, I know they're trying to say it's not a big deal losing ETN and having Toon step in there, but that's gotta be somewhat of a downgrade. I mean, ETN was a different player. The tune, I know tunes run through your type, run through your face type of running back, but he doesn't have the finesse that ETN had. So that's gonna be another adjustment that seems we have to make. So they're right there with Houston. Obviously, I know professional betters have taken position on Jaguars just because you're getting plus 210 plus 220 books right now divisionally. But I think the books are telling themselves a little bit. Right. That's such a huge delta between these two. Even though I think public perception is these teams are pretty close to each other. Well, they're really not like my model has, obviously, Houston way above this Jaguars team. So I'm not going to fall for the trap. I might. I might look a little towards the over on their win totals as we get closer to the season. Just because this division, I mean, we're not. We're about to get in the Colts into a minute. It's just. It feels like there's wins to be having this division this upcoming year. So I don't hate that. But divisionally, something's off. I just don't. I don't trust those odds at plus 210. I. I think they're trying to suck me in here on this, on this Jaguars team to bet their divisional odds.

[Simon Hunter]

It is a very juicy number when I look at it, getting over plus 200 on the Jags in a division they won last year with a coach that we really believe in. I agree with you about etn. They also lost Devin Lloyd, who sort of had that career year at the exact moment he needed to have it. He's gone. We talked about that on the NFC south episode. What they really did was they just invested in resigning some of their best players. At the, at the top of that is Trayvon. Trayvon Walker, and they gave him $110 million. You know, former number one overall pick, the guy famously taken right before Aiden Hutchinson. And he's been good, but not dominant. I think what he's really been is sort of a really good balance for the other side of that defensive line. So you really got to believe in Trevor Lawrence if you're going to take a shot at the +210 here. That that's what really gives me the biggest pause. Because I want to take it. I want to take it so badly. It just feels like too much of a difference, like you said, between plus 120 for the Texans and plus 210 for the Jaguars. Too much? Too much. They're begging me. They're kind of begging me to do it.

[Chad Millman]

It's a trap.

[Simon Hunter]

That's why I'm not going to do it. I didn't even make a note on it. I'm not going to do it. You mentioned the Colts. What a bummer, right? Like they were crushing it. Daniel Jones was on fire. You know I mentioned in the QB episode quarterbacks who were in top 10 in both EPA per drop back and success rate. And the list included the luminaries, you know like Matthew Stafford. Hold on, I want to look at the exact list here for a second because it was Stafford, Drake, May Jordan, love, Brock Purdy, but also on that list, Mac Jones. Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones didn't get a sniff for top 10 quarterback even though if you had asked anybody before he was injured last year would he have qualified as a top 10 quarterback? Of course. Because he was playing at an MVP level. So they start off 8 and 2 finish, you know what do they finish? 8 and 9. And I'm sorry, they start off 6 and 2. What was it 8 and 2 or 6 and 2? Let me look at my notes here. Yeah, started 8 and 2 and then they missed the playoffs for the fifth straight season. SAS Gardner. They give up their first round picks for him. He was not great. Daniel Jones is now recovering from a torn Achilles plus 375 to win the division. I don't think this team got better Simon like they added their biggest additions were Arden Key, a defensive end from the Titan from the Titans and they got rid of Michael Pittman in favor of Alec Pierce who's now injured. This team did not get better. I feel, I feel badly for them because I felt like they had a shot last year.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah and this feels like it's the year before the year in my opinion. You have Daniel Jones coming off a major injury and this isn't Mahomes type. This is Daniel Jones coming off a major injury. We don't expect him to step right in and be an elite level quarterback. Last year he was building to be an elite level quarterback. Right. And I mean we made the running joke. I've never in my life ever had a team hit my win total which they weren't total was seven and a half last year like Chad said they were eight and two. They'd hit their win total what was the end of October or early November. They didn't win another game the rest of the year. Like you just. That just doesn't happen. Right. And the, the thing. Yeah the mentality of this team. I just, I have major questions heading this season. I mean I know Matt Mitchell's in our chat somewhat. Chris Ballard who apparently said he turned down. He turned down a contract to start the year because he wants to win before signing a new deal. I feel like the fans are in the same boat as me. They just, they need something different in there. I hope the owners listen to their fans. They just. As much as he's tried, I do not fault Chris. He's. Every year he's trying to get a different quarterback. Remember that whole run we had the Matt Ryan, the Philip Rivers, every year trying to find a guy. Carson Wentz, no one faults him. Right. It was just a lot to put on a guy's plate after Andrew Luck retired on him. And they just never found their way. And last year was the way they had the team. I felt like, right. They had the offense, you know, that we're not even talking about Alec Pierce, how big of a deal that is. This kid might start on the pup like that's their by far number one receiver. Especially now they got rid of Pittman. You know, it's just, it feels like next year we'll be all in on the Colts. That's honestly how I feel like get, get Daniel Jones back. I know he's trying to rush back right now. I hate it. It's like, dude, you had an Achilles tear. You're a mobile quarterback. Please take your time. I mean, you don't want to see Anthony Richardson going there and potentially steal your job. I think we think most of us agree you're safe. Like that kid. He's just not going to figure out like that. What he needs to figure out is going to take years to figure out. So I just. From my standpoint, how do you bet anything into the over everything? Everything on this team screams under it. Just not from a season from hell. Because they still have talent, right? They still have Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren on offense. And if it is Anthony Rich and I think Shane's talking about scheming up. This is one of the great best schemers ever. I mean, we've seen what he's done since he's been in the Colts. He always finds a way to make get the most out of town he has on offense. But Chad said it like they didn't really add much. Right. Because they're kind of handcuffed because they just tried to go so big. The Sauce Gardner trade might be one of the worst trades ever, like giving up multiple first round picks for that guy. And we've seen the trademark in other players. You know, would you rather have him or Miles Garrett? It's not even a contest. So it is tough with this Colts team. I want to be positive. I want to like them. But I could easily see them being fourth place in this division this year. It's, it's going to be really close to the Tennessee. I know it doesn't feel like it's them, but this feels like a five win team. If you have a quarterback coming back too early off injury, I think it's going to lack a lot of confidence in the locker room and that's just going to create turmoil where as much as I respect Shane Steichen, I don't know if he can overcome all that drama and you know this is going to be a tougher division. It's been a few this year is like that Jaguars, Houston team. You know, as much as we like to think Colts can split it with them, I, I could easily see both those teams sweeping this Colts team. So it's, it's dark right now for my view on this cold steam this upcoming season.

[Simon Hunter]

What a bad run for Indianapolis Sports since June of what year was it? 2025. Tyrese Haliburton has an epic run taking the Pacers to the finals. Teresa Achilles. The Colts come out looking like world beaters 8 and 2. Shane Steichen finally gets to be in his bag. We both love Shane Steichen. I think he's amazing. I think what he's done with that team, various quarterbacks, you know, transitioning non stop from Anthony Richardson to Gardner Minshu to Daniel Jones, like he has found ways to make that team competitive. Really impressive. Stoic, really stoic. Daniel Jones tears his Achilles, they go all in for Sauce Gardener and it all falls apart. So now they don't have draft picks. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers, they go in for the center from the Clippers whose name I can't remember or pronounce appropriate properly right now. And they give up the chance to get one of the four players coming out of college basketball this year in the draft because they lose their lottery position with the trade they made with the Clippers. That is just an epically bad run in lacking new talent. And your best player is Terry McKillies.

[Chad Millman]

You get. No, you got Signetti and the Hoosers going to be fine.

[Simon Hunter]

Indiana, well, you know, it's, it's funny. I was in Indie last week and my Uber driver, we were talking and all we did was talk about the IU football team. He was in the playoffs last year. I went to the playoffs last year. It was so freaking glorious. Most people could probably see the IU wins poster over my shoulder. But that's true. We did get Indiana football. It's too bad for the Colts and the Pacers. Though I think I might be the only one who cares about indie sports outside of Indianapolis. Okay, I guess that's all I got to say about that. Let's do a quick word from Zbiotics. Matt. Summer's almost here. You know what that means. Beautiful weather, long days, cocktails on the patio. Also, we both know that after a few stiff drinks, we don't bounce back like we used to. Sometimes we've had to choose between a great night or a great next day. But that was before Matt. We tried Pre alcohol zbiotics. Pre Alcohol Probiotic drink is the world's first. First genetically engineered probiotic invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this byproduct. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Matt, as long as we've been talking about Zbiotics and pre alcohol, you've been a big fan, isn't that right? That's right. I'm spending my own money on this product. It is lovely. Highly recommend it.

[Chad Millman]

Whether you live in the drink, in

[Simon Hunter]

the state, in the Union, like Wisconsin, or anywhere else, highly recommend it.

[Chad Millman]

It's these little bottles, you knock them

[Simon Hunter]

back, you feel your best the next day. Couldn't recommend it more. All right, well listen, go to zebiotics.com sharpersquare to learn more and get 15 off your first order. When you see when you use Sharper Square at checkout, ZBiotics is backed with 100 money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zebiotics.com/sharp or square and use the code sharp or square at checkout for 15 off Simon. The team that we have been completely misaligned with for the past two seasons, the Tennessee Titans. When it was time to bet against them, we couldn't do it. We wouldn't do it. When it was time to bet on them, we couldn't do it, we wouldn't do it. This year, it's a brand new ballgame. Robert Sala is the new coach. Brian Daboll is the new offensive coordinator after his stint with the Giants. Gus Bradley Longtime defensive coordinator, former head coach is now the defensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans. Cam Ward. We saw a lot of potential with Cam ward. They finished 3 and 14 plus 800 to win the division. 60 to 1 to win the conference, 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Here's what I thought was interesting. So they got Carnell tape from Ohio State in the first round. They also drafted Keldrick Falk from Auburn and the edge they gave Jeffrey Simmons a massive new deal. Their biggest wide receiver, free agent signing Wondale Robinson, Brian Dabel favorite with the Giants. They signed former Jet John Franklin Myers to a big deal and they traded for former Jet Jermaine Johnson. Is Robert Sala just trying to reconstitute the New York jets in the middle of Nashville? What is happening here?

[Chad Millman]

I love our fans. We talk way too much about the Odyssey. I had someone DM me a meme of when you were going to talk about Tennessee and it's of Matt Damon tied to the bow of the ship screaming when the sirens that it should honestly be mean, Chad. We should be just screaming the top of our lungs. Tied to the bows, not able to swim away to our Tennessee Titans, who we love.

[Simon Hunter]

No. It's so true.

[Chad Millman]

I am tempted here. Plus 800 to win the division. I'm not gonna lie. I. I did. Why place a little bet? Because we talk all the time about the new coach Bump and the year two bump. Right. Do I really believe Ken Moore is going to take this giant step? No, because he just had a lost season. But the potential is there. We see it time and time again. NFL, like, the talent level of these quarterbacks is so high. If you can just get it in between before these defenses can figure you out, you can steal a season. That's just how it is in this league where it's like, well, look at

[Simon Hunter]

Drake May and look at Caleb Williams.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, exactly. It's like, would any of us had seen them becoming the 1 and 2 seeds last year? No. Or 2 seeds for both divisions? No, it's, you know, the conferences, you just don't see these things coming. So why I look at this team, it's like I still see major holes, major weaknesses, consolidate. Correct that stuff on defense. Sure. Offensively, is. Is Tate really gonna be that guy? You know, is Pollard gonna be the number one back? Do they need to step up and be a workhorse for them? Because you can't put it all on Cam. We saw last year right when Cam. How many bets did we lose, Chad, in the final three Minutes of the fourth quarter because Cam Ward tried to do too much. And we don't fault him for that. He's a rookie making rookie mistakes. But Salah, I don't know if you watch a QB show, it felt like they were very gentle to him last year. Cam Ward, Salah is not that guy. Sal is, I think is going to be in his face being like, you're losing me games, you're costing me games. I'm not going to waste my time in another quarterback like this. Like this really would be a true test year to me for Cam Ward. Maybe they give him another year after this. But the draft class is so good upcoming. If they're number two, number three pick in this upcoming draft, it would be really hard as a GM to pass on this draft class. As much as I love Cam Ward and I think he has a ton of talent, you just have to do what's best for organization. That's restart over. And I, I really do think Cam. They've supported him, they've put pieces around him. Will the offensive line be better than it was last year? They need to be because he was too much pressure in his face consistently. And you know, I, I look at this team where I can see, I can see the talent there. And if solid does come in and changes this whole mentality, this team, there is something to build off of it. Am I going to tell people on our. That listen this. To bet this team over Houston? No, I have much more faith in Houston. Better value in my opinion. Houston, a lot of that stuff. So I just, I, I think the number's too big. A plus 800 is too big. I have said plus 600. The, the numbers thrown off too much. I think the Colts is getting too much love from the sports book. And I think that's why, in my opinion, you're getting free value here on this, on this Tennessee team. They're not gonna be as bad as they were last year. I'm telling you guys, it's just as much as we think. Well, okay, maybe they'll steal one or two games that they didn't steal last year. I agree with that sentiment, but I think, you know, what are they at? Six wins. That's what their win total is this year. Six and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, six and a half.

[Chad Millman]

I could see him getting the seven or eight wins, Chad. It's just that big of a bump, I think from Salah and Cam Ward. So I am higher in this team winning this division though. It's just you would need so many Things to break your way. You need. A lot of things go wrong in Houston. Not only injury luck, but you need their defense to fall apart. And then we've already talked at nauseam about the Jaguars and you know, even if they regress a little bit, I still think Liam could get that team to 10 wins. Like that's how good of a coach I think Lian Cohen is. So it's just, it's hard for me to see this team be a playoff team to win this division. But if you want to take their win total, I don't hate that I think I can see them getting seven or eight wins. It's just, you know, for me to be all on the Titans team, I'm going to wait another year. I'm going to be patient here. But I'm excited. The fact that they did go get a new coach, they are trying to support Cam Warden. It's, it's, it's what you want to see organizationally. If you're a fan of the Tennessee Titans. It's, it's, it feels like it's the year before the year.

[Simon Hunter]

The parallels, now that I think about it, between the Bears, Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and the Patriots, Mike Vrabel, Drake May and the Titans, Robert Sala, Cam Ward are interesting, right? New coach, new energy, second year quarterback who showed flashes, opportunity to improve. Now if you. And you know, the Bears got lucky, right? They, they had great sort of fortuitous opportunities between Micah Parsons getting injured and the Lions offensive line being in shambles and JJ McCarthy not being the answer. And the Patriots had a really great run with their schedule and some tough losses by the, by the Bills. So, you know, if you both played

[Chad Millman]

the fourth by schedule, right. Chad, something we recognize about it does matter.

[Simon Hunter]

It does matter. Like if you squint, you can see it now the difference is, is Robert Salah, Ben Johnson, like, is that a match? No. Is Robert Salla, did he have the same kind of success and aura that Mike Vrabel had before he went to New England? No. So it's not a perfect comparison, but superficially it's there. And then it's like you got to believe that Brian Daboll can do for Cam Ward what a lot of people allege he did for Josh Allen and that's how he ended up getting the Giants job. Now you could also say, did he really do that much in the end? Was he that great of a coach? We don't know. So there's also ways in which the comparison completely falls apart. But if I were doing this. I would take the flyer on the Plus 800. I would not take the flyer on over their season win total. Just better value. Like take a little bit smaller taste and have a little more upside.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. And our dream scenario would be it's week 1617 and Tennessee's a game behind Houston and we can find a position to hedge. So I, I totally agree with that's why I threw a little on the eight plus 800. I just, I bet Houston at plus 120 didn't touch the Jaguars, didn't touch the Colts. I put a little bet on this Tennessee team. I just, I think we should have the same mentality that new coach year two quarterback bump. It sounds crazy here in August, but you know, it just happens time and time again in the NFL.

[Simon Hunter]

Little, little tiny taste. All right, listen. That's the AFC south preview. We're going to continue with our next episode. We're doing the NFC west coming out on Thursday. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Duvall.

[Chad Millman]

Duvall. Duvall. This is an iHeart podcast.

[Simon Hunter]

Guaranteed Human.