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Simon Hunter
This is an I Heart podcast.
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Mangesha Teegular
I'm Mangesha Teegular and I'm back with a new season of my podcast, Skyline Drive. This time I talk to scientists, biopunks, curmudgeons, blue zoners, super seniors, and Goa's top cryotherapy lab to try to understand this obsession with living forever and what it means for all of us. And I get into a bit of trouble along the way.
Nora Jones
I'd say probably start bone smashing.
Mangesha Teegular
That doesn't work.
Simon Hunter
To make it look more defined.
Nora Jones
They say it works.
She's Birdie Sponsor
I don't know.
Mangesha Teegular
Listen to Skyline Drive how to Live Forever on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
Good Mom's Bad Choices Host
New school year, same beautiful mess. Good Mom's Bad Choices is back to talk. Back to school realness, the guilt, the giggles, and the choices no other show is brave enough to admit.
Good Mom's Bad Choices Guest
Mom Life is calling and I have my last mother volleyball tournament of IRI's club team volleyball and I cannot wait for it to be over because I don't like participating and having to drive far distances. Shout out to the moms and my mom who made it happen.
Good Mom's Bad Choices Host
Listen to Good Mom's Bad Choices from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
Nora Jones
I am talking to a felon right now with face tattoos and I cannot decide if I like him or not.
Therapy Gecko Host
That was a caller from my podcast Therapy Gecko where I speak with anonymous callers about their problems, relationships and anything else in the depths of their mind. It all happens on my show, Therapy Gecko.
Chad Millman
So.
Therapy Gecko Host
So if you're trying to get out of your own head and into someone else's, this is the podcast for you. Listen to Therapy gecko on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharp or Square, part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman and I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
Simon Hunter
Chad, how we doing?
Chad Millman
Dude? Massive, massive news today. Are you ready? I have mentioned, I have mentioned on this show many, many times in the past 18 months that I've been working on a new book about the world of sports betting for Penguin Press. Today on this show with our beloved community, we are officially announcing that the number chasing the biggest edge in sports will be out on January 12, 2027. Matt Mitchell is throwing up a look at the COVID For those who are watching it on YouTube right now, you can go to read the number to check out more. You can pre order the book@readthenumber.com I'm going to tell you about all the cool stuff you get if you pre order. I wanted to announce it on the show because our audience has been with us for a very, very long time and kind of inspired a lot of the ideas for the book. It goes inside the high stakes world of sports books, prediction markets. Everybody who is chasing this ultimate edge of sports betting has become more and more relevant in all of our lives. It reveals how gambling is changing not just sports, but the way we think about risk, probability, the future. I would say. Simon, over the course of about 18 months I did more than 30 trips reporting this book. I was in Costa Rica spending time with a guy who I tracked over the course of a baseball season. He's one of the biggest baseball betters in the world. I know when I was talking to Simon once I I told him how much this guy was betting on his own of his own money and he was pretty blown away. I went to the sticks of Pennsylvania. I spent time with the guys who uncovered the Jontay Porter gambling scandal and sort of tracked how they do their jobs. I was with a guy who over the past year has become one of the highest volume traders of sports on Kalshit. He's done half a billion in volume on Kalshi trading on sports. He's always atop the leaderboards for Kalshi Trading and then I spent a lot of time with a guy who has been over the past decade one of the biggest NFL prop bettors in the country and we talked a lot about how he's achieved what he's achieved. Listen, I loved reporting this book. I loved getting even deeper into the sports betting world that I didn't think I could get even deeper into. I would love it if you all pre ordered this book between now and when it comes out in January 2027. The hardest part of doing a book isn't writing the book, it's letting people know the book exists and then getting momentum like the pre orders mean so much. So I appreciate anyone who can dive in. Go to readthenumber.com preorder if you do a lot of bonuses. Number one, a special extra chapter, a bonus chapter that won't be in the book. Simon has read it. Matt Mitchell has read it. It is about my a day that I spent with Simon where we talked about the glory of what he does, the sacrifices of what he does. It was a blast of a day roaming around Philly and going to a Phillies game. So there's a lot of stuff to unpack there about how Simon and I first got together and as well. So you'll get that, which you're not going to get unless you pre order the book. And all season long you're going to get an invite to a pre order only Discord. We'll talk betting. We'll talk picks, all that good stuff. Every week during the NFL season, the Discord is going to choose a bet that we are going to make on the show. It's going to be voted for in the Discord. I'm going to use comments from people in the Discord. They're going to become a real part of the show over the course of the season. And then I'll make the bets with my own money. Whatever we win, we're donating to charity. And before everyone says, well what if you lose, I'm donating five grand to charity regardless, in honor of this Discord, every book that I get, every dollar, every Pre order over 5,000 is just another dollar into the kitty. Plus whatever we win over the course of the year, it's all going to charity. So go pre order. Let's hit that 5,000 number. I hope everyone will check it out. Join the Discord conversation. That conversation will carry into the show. Get the details on the Discord. Receive the bonus chapter. Go to read the number. Thank you very much for your indulgence Simon, thanks for listening, buddy.
Simon Hunter
No, I'm excited, Chad. I honestly, I couldn't, didn't even remember you actually interviewing me for the book. That's how good you are at your job. I just remember we went to a game, we hung out for a day. I think you had a notepad or I don't know if you're on your phone. Whatever it was. You're so good at your job. I never thought this was an interview until after the fact. We were like, thanks again for doing that for me. Like, what did I just do? Then we just, just hang out and go to Philly's game. So
Chad Millman
thank you very much and thanks for doing it with me. I appreciate it. Simon's the only person in who I interviewed who I actually let read the chapter about him just because we're good buddies and I want to make sure he saw it. But I hope everyone checks it out. You can pre order the book@readthenumber.com let's get down to some business, buddy, because it's part four of our annual eight part division by division NFL betting previews. Moving on to the AFC West. I think it's the most intriguing division in football because like as you've said, are people sleeping on the chiefs? Is Mike McDaniel going to change Justin Herbert and that Chargers offense like Fernando Mendoza mania. When will it take effect in Las Vegas? And then of course the Broncos a game away from the Super Bowl. Maybe they would have made it if Bo Nix hadn't been injured. So there is a lot, a lot to unpack. Let's set the stage here a little bit. Chiefs 10 and a half season win totals minus 150 to the under. Chargers 9 and a half minus 145 to the over. Broncos 9 and a half minus 120 to the over. Raiders 5 and a half minus 145 to the Over. A lot of steam on the Raiders. Simon, let's start with the Chiefs. I'm not even going to ask you a question at this point. I think you and I are aligned, but we've been talking about the Chiefs so much during the offseason and Patrick Mahomes, clearly it's trending towards him expecting to be able to play in week one. Have you started to see movement that represents expectations that he's going to be playing and healthy for this team?
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it felt like, what was it, three, two, three months ago when the week one lines came out? That's when people not started checking in on my homes. But it felt like up to that point, it was all just Chargers talk, right? The Chargers were the favorite for this division. They had the highest win total. I mean, I could go on a whole another rant about. I don't know if you saw our guy. Bill Barnwell had an article that blew up.
Chad Millman
I was gonna. I texted with Burnwell about it this morning and I used it as a reference in the YouTube comments that I was responding to from some people yesterday and today. I thought it was brilliant, Absolutely brilliant. Oh, my God. Do you not agree? Do you want to explain the story or do you want me to do it?
Simon Hunter
You could explain it because you talked to the man.
Chad Millman
All right. So Barnwell did a column that came out yesterday, and I loved it. I thought it was like the epitome of how sports should be covered. Barnwell looked at the teams with the biggest super bowl preseason odds to win, meaning the delta between them and the team behind them was bigger than anyone else. He did the 15 biggest in the past 25 years. Only two of those 15 teams went on to win the Super Bowl. A bunch of them didn't even make the playoffs. And if you look at the. I think it was seven or eight before you got to a team that actually won the super bowl. In terms of how short, I guess, or how much their expectation was that they were going to win. They were a super team. Everyone believed it. The first seven or eight teams didn't win the Super Bowl. It was all around the context of the Rams being the super team, which we've been talking about all off season. Like there's just no value there. And chances are better that they won't win than they will win. And then people get mad at us because they point out that they have this great team. But shit happens, injuries happen, mistakes happen, teams crater. Like, anyways, I thought it was great.
Simon Hunter
So even before that, he had a little, A little offhand comment to someone online of an article he had written. And basically he'd said that Josh Allen to him was going to be the quarterback of the all decade team. So this past decade, so from 2021, obviously, till 2029, he said, right now you can make an argument for Mahomes or Lamar, but he would have Josh Allen as his all decade quarterback. So someone like me, who I try not to lose my mind on the show, but I have to defend Mahomes. That, that's. I have to defend Mahomes on the show. I hate it. I hate it, but I have to be the reason of insanity. And I feel like I was on an island, right? I had a fantasy football guy and Rich on the show talking Josh Allen number one. I had Josh Allen everywhere being number one. Even Chad said he was number one. I was losing my mind a little bit. But thank God the masses came down on Bill Barnwell and they were just like, in what world is Mahomes, who's gone to three Super Bowls, one, two, not on the all, all decade, quarterback over Josh Allen. So it was just good. Where I feel like fantasy football's kind of ruined society again. We all, we all agree it matters what you do between September and December, but Joe Montana, Tom Brady, no one talks about these guys. Regular seasons, it's Super Bowls, it's January and February that matter. So I think people have left Mahomes for dead. It's starting to come back a little bit. A little bit. Chad. It feels like a public servant. Come back to the Chiefs team now and they are, like you said, the highest win total in this division. Mahomes has been in practice. He's looking good, which is, I mean, the Daniel Jones Mahomes. All these quarterbacks are coming off major injuries which even 10 years ago would have taken a year to get right. They're, they're in practice early, working out. Who knows if it's the stem cell stuff. I have no idea what's happening with modern medicine, but it's incredible. Mahomes, yeah, there's little moments where you're like, okay, he's got a giant knee brace on, but he's out there doing what Mahomes does, which is off angle, tough throws, just incredible pocket presence. And you look at this Chiefs team, this might be the best offensive line he's had in the last five years. I mean, that's crazy to think what he's done. But it's always been where they've gone cheap. They've gone cheap at the offensive line. This year they're not doing it. The D line is incredible. Where they've gone cheap is obviously their defense. So I think we're unison with at this point, this Chiefs team, it's like, okay, do you believe in Mahomes? You believe in him being healthy with Andy Reid, you have them in a weaker, you know, the fact that they're a division, they were in third place. It's an easier schedule. How do you not throw a bet on this chief's team? It's just a minus 10 and a half, minus 150 to the owner. Okay, I'm getting a positive number though. I'm getting a Plus number taking the over. I'm going to bet my homes get 11 wins. So you know the books. Yes. We could be walking right into it. I have them projected 11 and a half wins. I have them a full game over. This win total they're going to. People are going to figure out pretty quick. There's two teams. I really like this division. The Chiefs are one of them. It's just you're betting on Mahomes, you're betting on Kenneth Walker. This run game really changing things. And you know, again me and Chad are the biggest fantasy guys. Cyrus Allen, he's going to be a name the general public is going to learn. This is a wide receiver that just looks the part right now for this team. So worthy is missing time. Rice man missing time for injury. They might have found a stud in this past draft. And that's, that's what Mahomes is going to do, right? He's going to find a guy. If this guy could stay healthy, he's gonna become Mahomes guy. He just cannot keep going through Travis Kelsey, who's what year 30, 36 years old now. So I just look at this team as. People are kind of like this might be an in between year. I feel like last year was that. I feel like last year was the year from hell. The year before they were 15 one and one score games. Last year they were one in ten Chad and one score games and Mahomes got injured. So yeah, like I think we're in unison here where it's like it's the Mahomes factor.
Good Mom's Bad Choices Host
He.
Simon Hunter
He's not calculable to most people's models. It's going to skew things where. Well, if he gets 12 or 13 wins, no, I would not be shocked. But it's like my model can't predict those one score type of games. What we're looking at is just a law of averages here. So to me this just feels like a team that you know, at worst case, Mahomes goes eight and five in one score games. You just. We just don't see him having an insanely horrible losing record. Last year was a year from hell. Me and Chad, I feel like we're in the same unison as we usually fade those type of seasons the next year. If you have a good quarterback with a good scheme, a good head coach and a good organization, you always bounce. Always been on the bounce back. So yeah, I don't know if I'm going to go heavy on their division odds like I have in the previous year's dad. But definitely taking that over right now at a plus number.
Chad Millman
Plus 170 to win the division, plus 650 to win the conference, 13 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. You know, it's been years since the Chiefs were longer than 10 to 1 to win the super bowl and they weren't one of the top two or three teams in terms of the shortest odds. You started the conversation asking about Barnwell's story, which I absolutely loved. But I, I, you didn't. You commented on one of his tweets. You didn't comment on the story. Did you have to?
Simon Hunter
No. It's in the story. He's breaking down the Bills. He has a little, that's what people cut out. Chad. It was a big, big deal where it's like again, it was just an offhand comment by him where he's, he's just breaking down why he likes the Bills and how great Josh Allen is and then he just throws in there and Josh Allen is probably going to be on my all decade team as the number one quarterback. You can make the argument from Homes or Lamar. I think everyone to me took a one deep breath were like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. There is no argument here.
Chad Millman
I got to reread the beginning of that story because we might be talking about two different stories because I don't remember that from the story yesterday. Whatever it is, just go read Bill Barnwell because he's brilliant and does things that are controversial and challenge your thoughts on football. And that's the whole point. And if it riles people up, all the better. More importantly, he made a very clear point. There's no value on betting the Los Angeles Rams and there is no value on betting super teams. So anyone who's saying you have to do this or has been listening to the show about the NFC west and saying you guys are crazy, there is evidence, there is math to back it up.
Simon Hunter
We did say there is value chat. He said there is value in betting them to miss like what we did to miss the playoffs.
Chad Millman
To miss the playoffs.
Simon Hunter
There is value, but it's not the value these people are thinking of. So I know exactly right, People than us backing us up. I'll definitely agree with you on that.
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Emily Oster
I'm Emily Oster. I'm an economist and data expert.
Perry Wilson
And I'm Perry Wilson.
Simon Hunter
I'm a medical doctor.
Emily Oster
And this is our new podcast, Wellness actually.
Perry Wilson
Because you're getting a staggering amount of health and wellness information nowadays, and some
Emily Oster
of it is awesome and some of it is, well, actually, bull. Fortunately, we're both people who know how to read studies, parse data, and can tell you what's worth trying out and what you can safely ignore.
Perry Wilson
Each episode we tackle the health news of the week and then take a deeper dive into a misunderstood health and
Chad Millman
wellness topic like what's the deal with Peptides?
Mangesha Teegular
What's the deal with GLP1?
Emily Oster
What's the deal with creatine?
Perry Wilson
What's the deal with cupping?
Emily Oster
What's the deal with sleep?
Perry Wilson
So join us for a weekly dose of sanity. Might actually be just what the doctor
Emily Oster
or the economist ordered.
Perry Wilson
Listen to wellness actually on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Nora Jones
Hey, I'm Nora Jones and I love playing music with people so much that my podcast called Playing along is back. I sit down with musicians, all musical styles, to play songs together in an intimate setting. Every episode's a little different, but it all involves music and conversation with some of my favorite musicians. Over the past two seasons, I've had special guests like Dave Grohl, Levy, Mavis Staples, Remy Wolf, Jeff Tweedy. Really too many to name. And this season I've sat down with Joshua Hamee, Sarah McLachlan, John Legend, and more. Check out my new episode with Phineas.
Billie (Guest on Playing Along)
So I went home and I asked Billie if she wanted to sing it. She immediately made it her own thing. You really know how to make me cry when you give me those oceans.
Nora Jones
So come hang out with us in the studio and listen to Playing along on the iHeartRadio app. Apple Podcasts or. Or wherever you get your podcasts.
Chelsea Handler
It's Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. This season we've got some awesome guests ready to dole out advice. Guests like Tiffany Haddish kind of slide into people's DMs.
Chad Millman
I like Bumble. Also girl. Farmersonly.com Estate sales, funerals, auctions are usually good. There's a lot of good men there. Grocery stores near gyms.
Chelsea Handler
Darcy Carden and I remember being like,
Simon Hunter
I know this is good advice, but like, I really don't want to do that.
Chelsea Handler
So you didn't take her advice?
Simon Hunter
I didn't take her advice.
Chelsea Handler
Are you still friends with that woman?
Billie (Guest on Playing Along)
No.
Simon Hunter
She actually was kind of toxic.
Chelsea Handler
Neil DeGrasse Tyson I spent my whole life looking up.
Simon Hunter
I was a geek kid. I had a telescope at age 12.
Chad Millman
And so.
Chelsea Handler
So you didn't have sex for a long time. Cherry O. Terry Were you a soap opera person?
Chad Millman
Young and restless?
Chelsea Handler
Okay, well, first of all, you should know it's the Young and the Restless. I can't even believe you're mispronouncing the Most of us abbreviate it because we've been so loyal for so many years. T.S. madison, are you into poly?
Nora Jones
No.
Simon Hunter
No, I don't think so.
Therapy Gecko Host
No.
Chelsea Handler
I could have told you no on that girl. It's a poly just based on what she's wearing and the way her hair is styled. She is not into poly girl.
Simon Hunter
Try poly.
Chelsea Handler
Anna Faris, Dave Franco, Madeline Cline, Hannah Gadsby, Adam Scott, Wanda Sykes and more. Listen to Dear Chelsea on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
Chad Millman
LA Chargers. They were the team everyone is psyched about before Mahomes came back and started looking like he would be able to play in week one. Second consecutive year they lose the season, they lose in the wild card round. They looked terrible against the Patriots. Justin Herbert again flailing in the playoffs. Plus 185 to win the division, 8 to 1 to win the conference, 17ish to 1 to win the Super Bowl. It's Justin Herbert's seventh season in the NFL. You could argue that the thing they did most to improve his chances wasn't on the field. It was bringing in Mike McDaniel. And we have seen so much about the way he's adjusted his footwork and we've heard so much about how they are adjusting the offense for him to get the ball out quicker. At the end of the day, do we believe these things can actually come to fruition or does Justin Herbert Become the guy who's six' six, built like an Adonis, and has his fiance playing with his hair on the field. And he's just going to believe that because of who he is, old habits will come back and he will hold the ball too long, try to make plays, and this team fails in the playoffs.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's. It's an. It's a really fun team. A fun team to debate. And I think it's very telling. The books have moved them down to nine and a half at the wind, at the win total, because they were. And they have adjusted, even though I would say they're. The charges are immediate. Darling.
Chad Millman
Right.
Simon Hunter
I think a lot of people right now are, are drinking the Kool Aid. The, the Herbert hype is hitting a crucial point here where people are tugging him for mvp. And it is back to what you just talked about, the upgrade they have at oc. They might have gone from one of the worst run blocking schemes to now one of the best in all the NFL. Right. And he could be a great coach, too, because he's going to challenge Justin Herbert where, you know, not that Justin Herbert doesn't get challenged. I think Harlow challenges in some ways, but he needed someone to work on his footwork. He did need somebody to be in his ear being like, hey man, it's. You do throw a beautiful pass downfield, but that check down, that you don't take on third and six and you're just bombing it downfield. Now we're punting. He needs to correct those mistakes. Herbert. No one doubts his arm skill. It's him always trying to do too much. He's always in that survival mode, which is, yes, something's happened to him just throughout his career. It's what he's had to do to make this team work. So if they're in another division, I really would like to start this team. My biggest issue is they feel like a fantasy team if you're doing best ball, whatever type of teams. I, I love building out the Chargers, right? Get the running backs, get the wide receivers, get the tight ends. I mean, they have three good tight ends. Like Najoku left Cleveland. He went there to be a tight end. Like, they have a really deep wide receiver room, really deep running back room, really deep receivers. Our question is just going to be that offensive line and what that defense is going to be like without Mentor. And, you know, I've made it no secret. I, I think Mentor is one of the best coaches. The fact that the Ravens got him, it's made me really high on this Ravens team.
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
It's also made me lower on this Chargers team because I think it's gonna be a big deal. I think his defense is gonna be very affected. I don't. I. I believe people put too much stock into Harbaugh. I do think Harbaugh is a great coach. He always gets 10 wins out of his teams. He's just, he's one of those guys that does that. But it's gonna be interesting what he's like losing what he's lost on defense, what he's gaining offense here. So I think it'd be a really fun fantasy team. Just, you know, betting wise long term, I feel like it's the year before. I think I'll be much higher next year on the starters team than I am going to be on this year. I just, I'm more confident if they had a year two in this offense and this defense was able to improve without a mentor because there's just like their D line. Is little Mack really scaring you? Like they just don't have guys in their D line that really scare you. And a division that we haven't even talked about Bo Nicks yet, but there's really good quarterbacks division. You need guys up front to get pressure on these guys or they're going to beat you. I mean, the Chiefs to me just an even team as this Chargers team that I think Broncos on paper are much better team. So I hate to be the guy to say it, but it's. Do we think this is going to be a team better than the wild card? I just don't. I just can't. I can't put money this team to this division. There's another team this division that's better value to me in the Broncos. So senior right now if you want to bet they're over win total at nine and a half, I don't have a problem with it. I lean to them being 9 and 8. I go towards the under. So for me it's no, no bet there. But this feels like another year of media hype for Justin Herbert. End of the season it's just another 9, 8, 10, 7 type of season where I'm not going to be too hard on. But it's just the division's brutal and it's just really hard to see them becoming the one or two seed which is what they need to do to win this division.
Chad Millman
The Chargers are a fascinating team. I think last year we were talking about the Chargers and Harbaugh and Barnwell might have said it feels like the Chargers. If you're betting the Chargers last year in 2025, you're betting on them, excuse me, a year early. Now you're saying it's a year early partly because of the new offense and Justin Herbert getting comfortable. And your point about them being a fantasy team is fascinating because that's been their rep for 45 years. Go back to when they were in San Diego and it was Dan Fouts and Kellen Winslow and James Lofton and then when it's Philip Rivers and Ladanian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. And now they got another all world quarterback who's going to put up the type of numbers that have him contend for the hall of Fame. And he's going to do it with some fabulous weapons when he had Keenan Allen and some developing weapons. But is he going to win anything? And I think that's why you're starting to see some of these numbers come down. And all of this is about psychology and perception and what the market is doing. And I think the more people are seeing Patrick Mahomes, the less people are inclined to buy into Justin Herbert. I think that's, that's what the market is telling us right now. And I agree, by the way, like sometimes you find clarity in your thoughts and your opinions. And I think we're both finding clarity on the Chargers right now.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I just couldn't believe people are actually betting them. Like you're really betting them at 1701 to win the Super Bowl. That feels like horrible, horrible odds to be taking this Charger scene. Like, I'm pretty sure The Eagles are 20 to one just a couple weeks ago. It's. Wouldn't you much rather bet a team who's been there before in easier division than a team that's never won a playoff game in a really hard division at 17 to 1? So that's what I mean where it's like public reception just made them unbettable. It's like they slowly becoming the Cowboys, the media darling. The Cowboys were right. The Cowboys never had value because they've just been bet up so much. Same here for the Chargers. They were just a normal team in this division. 25 to 1, 30 to 1 makes a ton of more sense. 17 to 1 makes zero sense. They were at 14 to 1. So once again they've been dropping because other money's been going other places for betters and I still don't think there's value there. So like I said, I just, I, I don't, I don't want to bet that at this point. And you know, we'll. We'll see about this Charger team. It's. I'm excited for them because they're such a fun team, but it's like, I think we all rightly so have our doubts about them for many reasons. And it all goes back to, you know, can they support Herbert? Can they keep those offensive linemen healthy? Because, you know, we saw last year he did so much with so little. They have the weapons, they have the offensive line. If everyone's taking and stay healthy, it really is going to fall back to that defense, in my opinion.
Chad Millman
So let's play a fun game for a second because we're going to talk about the Broncos. Obviously, the Broncos had the number one seed. They had a 143 season. They beat Buffalo in that dramatic game in overtime in the divisional round and then they lost in a really ugly game to the Patriots in the AFC title game where Bo Nicks didn't play. And you could argue if he's playing, that is an entirely different game going both ways. Right. The Patriots would have had to adjust so it wouldn't be a 10, 10, 7 slug fest. They're plus 210 to win the division, 10 to 1 to win the conference, 21, 20 to 1 to win the super bowl. And that's outside the top 10. Simon, what the actual fuck? Like, this team that was number one seed in the conference last year is now considered to be the third best team by the odds in the division. I can accept aggression. I can accept there were some miracle comebacks. I can accept that there will be an ability to adjust to what Bonix is good at. But come on, you got like one of the best coaches in the league. A team that you could argue overachieved and might actually be. That might have been a year early. Everything for them is third best in the AFC West. Are you kidding me? That is insane. Insane comment. And then I got a question for you.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And we were both stunned, right? When we first talked opening lines, we couldn't believe when they came out. I think their original win total was nine. So the books opened them at nine. And we were both in shock of like, what are we missing? Are we stepping into something? And you know, the more guys I talk to other professionals are just like, well, look at their one score record. Right? We just talked about Mahomes. What was he 1 in 10 and 1 score games. This team did something that never had been done in NFL history. They were 14 and one in games. They were trailing in the fourth quarter. So last year, they had this incredible stretch with Bo Knicks kept winning games in the fourth quarter. And we remember those games. A couple of those games we were betting against them where, yeah, we would take the ugly dog, and all of a sudden, Bo Knicks would just have these incredible fourth quarters and have these comebacks, and he wouldn't always cover, but they were finding ways to win. It was truly incredible. And it's just, you look at this Denver team and, you know, top five offensive line, top five defense, and then they bring in Waddle. So now you have Waddle, you have Sutton, Bryant might be a stud. This other receiver they have, you look at the running back room with J.K. dobbins, it's like, okay, even if he goes down, we have RJ Harvey. We have this kid named Coleman who could step up and be a running back. So, you know, Sean Payton's really put his fingerprint on this team, and they keep building it out that way where they have the defense. They really didn't attack the defense that much the offseason. The Waddle part is such a huge upgrade. We're not talking enough about where it's like, okay, if you're believing in Bo, Nick's taking the next step. You went out there and got him a number one receiver. That's what Waddle is. Waddle is tons of time.
Chad Millman
But what's interesting about Waddle is he's a number one receiver who's a really good, for lack of a better term, possession receiver. Right. He can be complimentary to what Sutton can do, and a lot of times, that's what. That's what Bo Nix was missing last year. Like, someone who he can be comfortable with when he doesn't have to unleash it and can throw those shorter routes. So great pickup.
Simon Hunter
Great pickup, and just another way of pick your poison. Like, if you take him away, Sean Payne will have a chess piece. Another move against the counter there, and then when you slide that protection over to Sutton again, he'll burn you with Waddle, you just can't deny Waddle's speed. And that's what I'm so excited to see in this offense where it's like. Like, okay, we saw Waddle did Miami, and with, you know, Tyreek Hill, and, you know, it was really impressive. But the big thing haunted him was he was just inconsistent game to game with either soft to issue soft to issue issues, where he was like, okay, I got a bad hamstring, and then he leaves in the middle of the second quarter, plays Plays a bunch of games, but he just kept leaving the middle of games. That's always gonna be a question with Waddle. So that, that, that would be definitely a hesitation. But look at the seam. Overall, it's, do you believe in Bo Nicks or not? We had the same conversation last, do you believe in Bo? And both of us were like, we see it, but how can you go against Mahomes in this division? We just, we just were never going to pick Denver and put a lot of money into it. And this year, how do you not bet them the division odds? Like, just looking at them, you know this is the best value in this division, right? I don't know if they can duplicate being the 1 seed once again, but should they have the 3rd worst odds in this division behind Mahomes and Herbert?
Chad Millman
It makes no sense. Well, that's what I was going to ask you. If you could line up the Chiefs division odds. Chiefs super bowl odds. Chargers division odds. Chargers super bowl odds. Broncos division odds. Broncos super bowl odds. So don't Forget Broncos. Basically 2 to 1 to win the division. 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Chargers plus 185 to win the division. 17 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. And then Chiefs plus 170 to win the division. 13 to 1 to win Super Bowl. If you're drafting those six odds, how do you draft them? Because I wonder if you and I would be on the same page about number one. Because I, I feel like I have a lean that's different than yours for number one.
Simon Hunter
I'm still gonna, I'm still gonna bet the Chiefs just because that's. To me, that's good.
Chad Millman
Which one? 13 one.
Simon Hunter
Super bet. Yeah. I bet my home super bowl odds.
Chad Millman
Just because. You know what, you know what?
Simon Hunter
Anything. I'm going to 10 to 1 or better on my homes, I'm going to take that bet.
Chad Millman
Then we're on the same page. Because if I were drafting, I would take the Chiefs 13 to 1, first of those six numbers.
Simon Hunter
And it's no disrespect to, you know, Bo Nixon, just every team. It's just we're thinking long term. And, you know, if it's Bo Nix versus Mahomes in the AFC championship game, me chatty betting. We ain't betting Bo Nicks. We're gonna take Mahomes there every time. So it's not, it's not so much we're against him, it's just. It's hard to believe him showing up in that moment, outplaying a guy Like Mahomes where we've seen guys like Josh Allen or Lamar falter and they have much more skill than Bo Nick. So you know, looking at this year, it's just I, I can't get over the Denver Bronco disrespecting the fact that they're the 13th Division. I really feel like they should be tied with the Chiefs at the top of this division. I get what pros are saying here, that they're like oh we're built, we're building in the regression. No doubt we're all doing the same thing. But at nine and a half wins at minus 120, Chad, I mean come on. I mean we gotta bet they're over win total. It's just if Bonix is healthy, if this team plays the way we think they should play, it's not a guarantee of 10 wins, but pretty damn close to it. Like Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in this league and you give them this much talent on this deep of a team, if they can just stay healthy, there's no doubt they'll be in the playoffs and even maybe potentially win this division. So yeah, I felt like again every division has an easy bet. This one felt like the easy bet to me. Just take their over win total. You don't have to bet any other ones. You can stay away from homes with injuries if you want. Bo Nicks looks fully healthy. Good to go. I think it was Albert Breer was in their camp just talking about how you would never know he's had any type of issues with his legs after what was it, a foot surgery last year. I think it was only an 8 week to like 10 week heel process. So he's been doing their off season programs. He's been good to go. No restrictions on bone Nick. So I'd be very excited if I was a Denver Broncos fan. And when you have a team that loses in the AFC championship game because their quarterback was hurt, that is an amazing motivator. Entire offseason headed to the season because they feel like they were wrong, they were unlucky. I would be very excited if I was a Denver Bronco fan. This just feels like a great team that's not being talked about that has all the motivation in the world that a lot of these teams have as well. They weren't there, they didn't taste it, they weren't that close and felt like something was taken away from them. So yeah, this is everything I've read. A highly, highly motivated team this year.
Chad Millman
Way too much regression on this Broncos team. Way too much hype on the Chargers, way too much regression on the Broncos. I have one bone to pick with the media community. You talked about Albert Brear doing it. Our guy Ben Solak did it. Colin Cowherd did it. All these guys who go to training camps and come out saying about players that he lost 15 pounds, he looks amazing. He's streaking across the field or he doesn't look like he even had a torn Achilles or his foot looks fine. None of us are doctors. None of us can watch and really understand anything that's going on in practice field in training camp with 20 minutes of observation. I feel like I get all these alerts from ESPN about, from beat reporters that are hyping up their team and none of it matters, none of it fucking matters until the season starts. It's all irrelevant.
Simon Hunter
It doesn't. But at the same time, not going to say the quarterback who was a Chicago. I think people, people know who I'm talking about. I'll never forget a guy who I work with who said he went to a practice and he'll never forget he's talking to this quarterback and he could just smell the booze coming out of his skin and that hot sun and just how like those are like. I think back to those days where you would never have that nowadays you don't go to practice and a quarterback smells like Sunday morning. How things have just changed where back in the day I think it is thinking back to like, these guys wouldn't work out in the off season. They would get in shape in camp. Now these guys never get out of shape. They are working.
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
It's just, it's just so different now. So I'm with you. Where it's like everyone's in the best shape of their life. No one takes a day off. It's just the, the league has changed and it was 20 years ago where guys could come smelling, come smell like Sunday morning. Now these guys are all professionals. They wear their wristbands, they know their sleep schedule, what they've ate, what they've like, you know, they drank the day before. It's all down to a science now. So I'm with you. You don't gain much going to these practices like you used to.
Chad Millman
Simon, the news is when someone looks shitty, not when someone looks great. That's my point. Anyone looks great.
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Emily Oster
I'm Emily Oster. I'm an economist and data expert.
Perry Wilson
And I'm Perry Wilson.
Simon Hunter
I'm a medical doctor.
Emily Oster
And this is our new podcast, Wellness
Perry Wilson
actually, because you're getting a staggering amount of health and wellness information nowadays, and some of it is awesome and some
Emily Oster
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Perry Wilson
Each episode, we tackle the health news of the week and then take a deeper dive into a misunderstood health and
Chad Millman
wellness topic like what's the deal deal with Peptides?
Mangesha Teegular
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Emily Oster
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Perry Wilson
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Emily Oster
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Perry Wilson
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Emily Oster
or the economist ordered.
Perry Wilson
Listen to Wellness actually on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Nora Jones
Hey, I'm Nora Jones and I love playing music with people so much that my podcast called Playing along is Back. I I sit down with musicians from all musical styles to play songs together in an intimate setting. Every episode's a little different, but it all involves music and conversation with some of my favorite musicians. Over the past two seasons, I've had special guests like Dave Grohl Levy, Mavis Staples, Remy Wolf, Jeff Tweedy. Really too many to name. And this season I've sat down with Joshua Hamee, Sarah McLachlan, John Legend, and more. Check out my new episode with Phineas.
Billie (Guest on Playing Along)
So I went home and I asked Billie if she wanted to sing it she immediately made it her own thing. No fair. You really know how to make me cry when you give me those oceans.
Nora Jones
So come hang out with us in the studio and listen to playing along on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Chelsea Handler
It's Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. This season we've got some awesome guests ready to dole out advice. Guests like Tiffany Haddish kind of slide into people's DMs.
Chad Millman
I like Bumble.
Therapy Gecko Host
Also.
Chad Millman
Girlfarmersonly.com Estate sales, funerals, auctions are usually good. There's a lot of good men there. Grocery stores near gyms.
Chelsea Handler
Darcy Carden and I remember being like,
Simon Hunter
I know this is good, good advice, but, like, I really don't want to do that.
Chelsea Handler
So you didn't take her advice?
Simon Hunter
I didn't take her advice.
Chelsea Handler
Are you still friends with that woman?
Billie (Guest on Playing Along)
No.
Simon Hunter
She actually was kind of toxic.
Chelsea Handler
Neil DeGrasse Tyson.
Simon Hunter
I spent my whole life looking up. I was a geek kid. I had a telescope at age 12.
Chad Millman
And so.
Chelsea Handler
So you didn't have sex for a long time. Cherry O. Terry, were you a soap opera person? Young and restless. Okay, well, first of all, you should know it's the Young and the Restless. I can't even believe you're mispronouncing that.
Simon Hunter
Some of us abbreviate it because we've
Chelsea Handler
been so loyal for so many years. T.S. madison, are you into poly? No.
Emily Oster
No.
Therapy Gecko Host
I don't think so.
Billie (Guest on Playing Along)
No.
Chelsea Handler
I could have told you no on that girl into poly just based on what she's wearing and the way her hair is styled. She is not into poly.
Simon Hunter
Retra Poly.
Chelsea Handler
Anna Faris, Dave Franco, Madeline Cline, Hannah Gadsby, Adam Scott, Wanda Sykes and more. Listen to Dear Chelsea on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or. Or wherever you get your podcasts.
Chad Millman
Las Vegas Raiders. Terrible season with Pete Carroll. Terrible season with Gino Smith. Missed the playoffs for the 21st time in 23 seasons. I can run through the odds. There's no value in any of them. 20 to 1 to win the division. 75 to 1 to win the conference. 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. They added Clint Kubiak as their new head coach his first season. They added Mike McCoy. They added a new defensive coordinator, Kirk Cousins. Probably going to start. It's really about, when is Fernando Mendoza going to play. The one thing I would say here and what I'm hearing people talk about, and this could just be, you know, training camp. Euphoria, optimism. Everybody Wants to root for something, right? The over five and a half, people seeing Brock Bowers, people seeing Kirk Cousins one more year removed from an injury, people seeing Ashton Genty, people seeing that offensive line being healthier than it was last year. Should anybody be thinking about the over five and a half?
Simon Hunter
No. If you want to bet they're over five and a half, just bet them week one. Like, bet their moneyline week one. I think they played Miami week one. Make that bet. Because if they don't win that game, there ain't no way they're getting the six wins. So to me, that would. That would be the game I. I'd take, but I honestly, I wouldn't do it because I actually Love Miami Week 1. I think they're a three and a half point dog against this Vegas team, but, yeah, I'd be excited if I was a Vegas team. But it's the same thing where it's like you guys are two, three years away. You're a horrible, horrible rant organization. Everything, everything you guys do, it always ends up wrong. Can Fernanda Mendoza change all that? That's the hope. We love this kid. We think he has a credible amount of talent. He's got the personality. That's proof for Vegas. Like, I. I think it was yesterday I saw something about. It was Max Crosby, how he begged his owner, or maybe he's begged his GM to take Jaylen Carter. Jaylen Carter would be dead if he got drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders. That never would have worked. They're like the exact opposite organization to draft in Jalen Carter. Yeah, let's put Jaylen Carter in Sin City with Max Crosby as his mentor. That would have been a disaster. So they're in a really unique situation where it's like they have to find the right personalities to be able to thrive in that city. Because Chad knows, like, if you. If you don't know what you're stepping into, Vegas can literally swell you up. Like, it's got every. Every bad temptation you can possibly have in life. They got it times a thousand beautiful women, parties, you know, temptations, all these things that, you know during a season you don't want your players dealing with. It's all there. So the fact that they got Fernando Mendoza, Kirk Cousins, two guys that like,
Chad Millman
you love it, it's the last thing
Simon Hunter
you think of as them at the club at 1am on a Sunday after a loss. Right? These are two guys that they'll be in the building after a loss. They'll be either hitting lifts or watching film like these are the two exact quarterbacks, Brady's drum dub leading this team. So the pillars are there, the building, the building blocks are there. But win total wise, I'm. I'm happy to take that under just in this division in the AFC Conference. Like they don't really have easy games. Like people think Miami's an easy game. You're. It's the thing I always talk about. You're the easy game to Miami. Well, Miami fans are going through their schedule. They have this as a win for them. Just like Vegas think they're going to roll this Miami team. So it's like we talk a time two bad teams, you really don't know you're going to get. I usually trust the veteran quarterback there. So you know Kirk, they say in all the right thing is Kirk's going to be their starter. I have a hard time thinking if Ferman Mendoza comes out and he's just grading camp, you play him. We have the data. Like number one picks don't sit. They just do not sit. Even going back to the 90s, right. That's when things started really changing. That before then if you're a number one pick, it didn't matter they were going to sit you. I mean, I think Troy Aikman played for the Cowboys and went like 1 in 15. Yeah. Start his career. That was the outlier. They just do not really. These do not play number one picks. Now they're just like, okay, we're one in seven. Let's put the kid in. At some point you just kind of put him in. So I'm really excited to see what they do with Mendoza. You know, everything I've read, him and Kubiak are in sync, totally locked in. You know, basically their whole offense is schemed around Brock Bowers, which it should be like that guy. Probably the best tight end of football already. Tons of talent. I love it. Like scheme qbx, scheme your whole offense around the kid. And you know Genty, he, he could be a great complimentary piece. I know they, they get Lindenbaum. I know they went out and got a center. Yeah, you know that's, that's a big deal like that you have the highest paid center of football now. You have a young quarterback, you have a young running back, a really great young tight end. The pieces are all there. I think we all agree like what Gruden did. Like that defense, draft wise, you just go through all their drafts. They have nothing defensively. Their defense is so bad. I know they try to address some of them for agency but just in this division, you look at, they're just, they're so far behind these other three teams, and I, I, I just can't find a reason to tell people to bet this year. I mean, 75 to 1 to win the conference, that's just such a waste of money. There's just no world. Those odds are still too short to me what this team's built up to be. So, yeah, it's not a fun pick, it's a boring pick, but I am going to be on the run under, I have this team of four wins. So, you know, a game and a half is pretty big discrepancy. So I will be betting it, but I get what the books are doing here. They're kind of hedging it here where if it is Kirk, you could get them to six wins like Kirk's a good veteran quarterback that at the end of games, they're going to be close games. Like they're not a horrible team that's gonna be getting blown out. Can Kirk steal a couple wins here and there? Yeah, I'm just really betting on Fernande Mendoza becoming their starter. That's really what this bet is. And once he does come in there in November, December, when all these teams are at peak performance, him getting one or two wins would be a pretty big stretch to me for Fernando Mendoza. So I feel pretty comfortable taking this under right now.
Chad Millman
All right, so for the AFC West, I think we're in agreement. We really like the Chiefs 13 to 1. That value for them to win the Super Bowl. I think we're also in agreement that we think that the Broncos are way undervalued. Take the over nine and a half. We think the Chiefs are way overvalued. Probably a pass on their win total, but also a pass just on the value of their super bowl odds at 17 to 1. Simon. That's for sure. We're going to come. Oh, yeah, go ahead.
Simon Hunter
I was going to say if you're just, if you don't like those odds we're giving out, I always say if you want to go way longer. Chiefs to beat the Eagles 100 to 1. So you bet a $100 right now on just the super bowl matchup with the Chiefs to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. That one, you know, if you want to go really chalk, I think it's 60 to 1 still. Chiefs beat the Rams in the super bowl, which, and we already talked about there's no value betting the ramp straight up, but if you want to throw them in a couple of these bets, right? Rams versus Chiefs. There's some value there. So yeah, 60 to 1 if you want to do that. Chiefs to beat the Rams, it's your role. But I, I really like that Eagles, but I think both them and the Eagles are just the bottom of the value you're going to find on these two teams coming off the years they had before. So yeah, if you don't like 13 1, obviously for Mahomes, coming off a major knee injury, 1001 to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
Chad Millman
I love that bet, Simon. It's on my list and I made it. I like the Rams one too. It's a really good idea. We've talked about that a few times, so be listening. Don't do what I did last year and Tyler shucked this where Simon says, hey, Tyler, Shuck201win Rookie of the year and then the rest of the season you're sweating it because you didn't make the bet as you see it go down to like, you know, two to one. Just take a little taste. All right, we're going to come back with our next NFL Division betting preview. It'll be the AFC North. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Don't forget pre order the number. I'm super proud of the book. Worked really hard on it. It's really, really fun. I hope people will give it a look. Pre order@readthenumber.com join the invite only Discord when you do it, get the free bonus chapter. The exclusive bonus chapter. Readthenumber.com like this video? Subscribe to the channel. Download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
Simon Hunter
I think I've been like all the investment that's been made, right? Just like putting money in the bank. Now it's time to start withdrawing.
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Simon Hunter
That's she'sbirdie.com I'm Mangesha Teeguder and I'm
Mangesha Teegular
back with a new season of my podcast Skyline Drive. This time I talk to scientists, biopunks, curmudgeons, blue zoners, super seniors, and Goa's top cryotherapy lab to try to understand this obsession with living forever and what it means for all of us. And I get into a bit of trouble along the way.
Nora Jones
I'd say probably start bone smashing.
Mangesha Teegular
That doesn't work.
Simon Hunter
Make it look more defined.
Nora Jones
They say it works.
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Mangesha Teegular
Listen to Skyline Drive how to Live Forever on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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New school year, same beautiful mess. Good Mom's Bad Choices is back to talk Back to school realness, the guilt, the giggles, and the choices no other show is brave enough to admit.
Good Mom's Bad Choices Guest
Mom Life is calling and I have my last motherf ing volleyball tournament of IRI's club team volleyball and I cannot wait for it to be over because I don't like participating and having to drive far distances. Shout out to the moms and my mom who made it happen.
Good Mom's Bad Choices Host
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Nora Jones
Hey, it's Nora Jones and my podcast Playing along is back with more of my favorite musicians. Check out my newest episode with Finneas.
Billie (Guest on Playing Along)
So I went home and I asked Billie if she wanted to sing it. She immediately made it her own thing. You really know how to make me cry when you give me those ocean
Nora Jones
so come hang out with us in the studio and listen to Playing along on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
Date: August 12, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
This episode is the fourth installment in the annual eight-part NFL division betting preview series, focusing on the AFC West. Hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders from a bettor's perspective. They analyze win totals, playoff odds, Super Bowl futures, recent team changes, and the psychology behind line movements—offering actionable insights for both sharp bettors and NFL fans.
| Team | Potential Bet | Hosts’ Take | Odds/Notes | |------------|-----------------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------------------------| | Chiefs | Super Bowl Futures | Strong value, take 13-1 | High upside if Mahomes healthy | | Chiefs | Win Total (Over 10.5) | Slight lean, plus number | Positive regression expected | | Broncos | Win Total (Over 9.5) | Best value in division | Motivated, talented, top coaching | | Broncos | Division Odds | Undervalued @ +210 | Should be closer to Chiefs | | Chargers | Pass/Lean Under Win Total | No real value | Too much hype, offense in transition | | Raiders | Under Win Total (5.5) | Foundation, but weak team | Fade: Too many holes, rebuilding |
Next division preview: AFC North.