The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square – BEST NFL Week 1 Bets"

Date: September 5, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
Network: The Volume Podcast Network

Overview

In this action-packed episode, betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return with "Sharp or Square," a deep dive into the best NFL Week 1 bets. Now part of The Volume Podcast Network and sponsored by Hard Rock Bet, the duo shares contest picks, wise guy chatter, and a blend of sharp trends, insider opinions, and honest debate. They break down their favorite and least favorite lines, highlight notable market moves, and reveal their strategy for the season's first NFL Sunday.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. "Wise Guy Hotline" Insights

(03:53)

• The guys start by checking in on professional betting community feedback.
• Giants vs. Commanders:
  • Wiseguys "hate" the hosts' lean to Washington, backing the Giants as a sharp divisional dog play.
• Packers vs. Lions:
  • Heavy public money on Green Bay but Simon calls them overrated.

    “Too much smoke's being pumped up their asses. On the flip side, too much hate is being thrown at those Lions team." (05:20, Simon)

• Ravens:
  • Universal pro love for Baltimore; line flipped from dog to favorite.
• Browns:
  • Pros are not scared off by Flacco; see value in inflated line versus Bengals.
• Jets:
  • Initially hesitant, but the “boys love it.” Wise guys expect them to be gritty underdogs vs the Steelers.
• Falcons vs. Bucs:
  • Atlanta money driving line down, but public loves the Falcons.

2. Game-by-Game Analysis

a. Patriots vs. Raiders

(07:53)

• Chad calls discipline here key, warning against blindly taking the tempting underdog Raiders unless at +3.

  "If we are doing our Sunday morning show and we are talking ourselves into betting the Raiders at plus two and a half, shame on us." (07:57, Chad)

• Simon likes the value at +3, citing overhyped Patriots buzz and key injury (Christian Gonzalez).

b. Bengals vs. Browns

(10:53)

• Contest pick “almost locked.”
• Favorite trend: Since 2009, home divisional dogs are 247-77 ATS (77%).
• Simon highlights Browns’ D-line vs Bengals’ O-line mismatch and historic trends.

  “It's a huge discrepancy between the D line and the O line of this Cleveland Browns defense compared to this Cincinnati Bengals offensive line.” (12:23, Simon)

c. Giants vs. Commanders

(14:48), (16:09)

• Debate over sharp move from +6 to +5 on the Giants.
• Commanders’ edge with mobile QB Jaden Daniels (can exploit Giants’ over-aggressive pass rush).
• Injuries to Giants’ O-line key (Andrew Thomas).

d. Panthers vs. Jaguars

(19:22)

• Both agree: extreme uncertainty keeps them away from betting this week.
• Carolina's WR depth, defensive injuries flagged as issues.

e. Colts vs. Dolphins

(24:50)

• Line moving towards Miami, but Chad questions value and resists the public side.
• Simon leans Miami, especially as Colts’ offense likely can’t expose Dolphins’ defensive weaknesses.

f. Steelers vs. Jets

(27:43), (30:16)

• Line dropped from Jets +3 to +2.5 after pro action.
• Both hosts consider the Jets a strong play at +3, less so at +2.5, but agree it shouldn’t be taken off the board.

g. Titans vs. Broncos

(33:22), (35:18)

• The “Brass Balls Bet of the Week.”
• Line moved from DEN -8.5 to -8/-7.5.
• Major sharp trend: large underdogs (+8 to +10) are 73% ATS in Week 1 over 20 years.

  “It might feel gross, it looks gross, but it's how I make a living. Long term winners.” (35:18, Simon)

• Counter: rookie QB trend is negative, but Simon pushes for trusting the foundational numbers.

  “It's week one, brother. Shit's about to get weird. That's what you need to lean into here.” (37:00, Simon)

h. 49ers vs. Seahawks

(40:42), (41:43)

• Market flipping between SF -2.5 and -2; wiseguys pushing on Seattle.
• Kubiak’s run scheme and home dog trend for Seahawks highlighted.
• Simon shares sharp action: "A guy I really respect hit the Seahawks for 50k."

  “Once again, the home divisional dog trends 24 and 7 in week one that backs up the Seahawks this exact spot…” (44:17, Simon)

i. Packers vs. Lions

(45:34), (46:36)

• Chad’s “Chad Loves Love” bet: Lions.
• Public likes Packers—hosts argue line moved too much due to injury speculation.

  “I just think Detroit, defensively, they have the athletes, they have the talent. Maybe arguably the best safety tandem in all football.” (48:56, Simon)

j. Bills vs. Ravens

(50:35), (51:47)

• “Rock and a Hard Place Bet of the Week” (sponsored, naturally).
• Massive line move: Ravens move from +1.5 to -1.
• Simon details Lamar’s record as a dog and especially on turf: 19-3 ATS.

  “Turf is fast and that's Lamar's greatest strength. And that's what this offense wants to be.” (52:44, Simon)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon’s legendary trend:

  “247 against the spread, 77% since 2009 home divisional dogs.” (12:23)

• On betting ugly dogs:

  “It might feel gross, it looks gross, but it's how I make a living. Long term winners.” (35:18, Simon)
  “It's week one, brother. Shit's about to get weird.” (37:00, Simon)

• On bankroll discipline:

  “Money management is literally 50% of the battle. That’s why you don't become a professional unless you have really strict money management.” (56:18, Simon)

Hosts’ Contest Picks & Leans

Top Locks (as of Thursday)

• Detroit Lions (plus the points) – Both strong on this as the lead dog pick.
• Cleveland Browns (as a divisional home dog vs. Bengals) – Trend & matchup play.
• Baltimore Ravens (pick or -1 at Buffalo) – LOVE, even after line moved.
• Tennessee Titans (big underdog vs. Denver) – “Brass Balls Bet of the Week” (Simon’s insistence, Chad joins for the drama).
• Fifth spot: Up for grabs, likely between the Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Seahawks, depending on closing line value and Sunday-morning injury/news updates.

Additional Noted Bets

• Moneyline Round Robin: Saints, Panthers, Jets, Lions, Browns.
• Survivor Pick: Broncos.
• Sharp vs. Square Head-to-Head: Chad – Miami, Simon – Ravens.

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:53 – Wise Guy Hotline Segment
• 07:53 – Patriots-Raiders breakdown
• 10:53 – Bengals-Browns analysis
• 14:48 – Giants-Commanders market movement
• 19:22 – Panthers-Jaguars (passing on the game)
• 24:50 – Colts-Dolphins leanings
• 27:43 – Steelers-Jets and contest value
• 33:22 – Titans-Broncos (Brass Balls Bet)
• 40:42 – Niners-Seahawks sharp money reveal
• 45:34 – Packers-Lions (Chad’s favorite dog)
• 50:35 – Bills-Ravens, closing as the Hard Rock featured pick
• 56:00 – Betting volume, money management, and how the pros approach Week 1

Tone & Style

Chad and Simon bounce between playful (“shame on us...”), irreverent (“Brass Balls Bet of the Week”), and dead serious betting advice (“money management…do not force five ATS bets in NFL”). Listeners get a blend of sharp analytics, actionable trends, behind-the-counter bookmaker chatter, and the duo’s trademark banter.

Summary Table: Key Week 1 Bets

| Game | Pick | Rationale/Notes | |--------------------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------------| | Ravens @ Bills | Ravens (+1.5 / -1)| Market/wiseguys heavy, Lamar trends | | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks (+2.5) | Home dog, sharp action, early season O-line | | Packers @ Lions | Lions (+2 / +2.5) | Overreact to Parsons news, chemistry/balance| | Bengals @ Browns | Browns (+5) | Divisional dog trend, OL/DL mismatch | | Titans @ Broncos | Titans (+8) | Brass Balls Bet; big dog Week 1 trend | | Patriots @ Raiders | Raiders (+3) | Inflated NE hype, injury edge if at 3 | | Steelers @ Jets | Jets (+3 if available)| Value at key number |

Final Takeaways

• Best Bets: Focus on divisional home dogs, inflated lines, and capitalizing on market overreactions—especially in unpredictable Week 1.
• Disciplined Action: Key theme is restraint; even the pros are cautious early in the season.
• Listen Sunday morning: Final betting card drops at 11am (YouTube/Podcast) as they react to latest moves, injury news, and wise guy whispers.

For regular listeners and sports bettors alike, this episode is as instructive as it is entertaining—a mix of peerless data, honest debate, and high-stakes handicapping that sets the stage for an exhilarating NFL betting season.