The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharp or Square: NFL Week 1 Best Bets with Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Date: September 2, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Feed: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts/The Volume)
Featured Segment: Sharp or Square – NFL Week 1 Best Bets

Overview

This episode kicks off the premier of "Sharp or Square," a show designed to make novice betters sharper while drawing the attention of seasoned professionals. Chad Millman (veteran journalist & gambling expert) and Simon Hunter (professional bettor) break down their top NFL Week 1 bets and leans, dissecting line moves, public vs. professional action, and betting principles. The duo debates, supports, and occasionally ridicules each other as they narrow down their favorite spreads for contest picks, focusing particularly on line value and the importance of discipline.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Show Introduction & Format (02:08–04:30)

• New show launch: They’re energized by the transition from their previous outlet (Action Network/The Favorites) to the independent "Sharp or Square."
• Show format: Explains how Tuesday covers the whole slate, Thursday zeros in on picks after injury info and line movement, and Sunday features a live “finalize five picks” chat.
• Philosophy: A mix of different handicapping approaches—journalism-driven and professional betting edge.

2. Big Line Movement: Cowboys (+8.5) at Eagles (06:55–10:03)

• Background: Millman describes taking early Cowboys positions (+7, ML +240). The line balloons to +8.5 due to Micah Parsons' absence/trade.
• Simon’s analysis: Sharp/pro money forced the book to move to 8.5, mainly to protect teasers and because “Parsons is worth two points.” (07:36)
• Consensus: Despite Eagles’ upgrades and public hype, line inflation creates rare value on Dallas as a big dog.
  • Simon: "It’s Dak as an eight and a half point dog… that's a lot of wiggle room for a back door." (08:56)
  • Chad: “I don’t know how we don’t back the Cowboys here. Like this number’s kind of gotten out of control.” (08:38)
• Leaning: Both tilt toward betting Cowboys at +8.5, but not sure about a contest pick yet.

3. Chiefs (-3) vs. Chargers: Brazil Game (10:03–12:49)

• Chad: No strong opinion; would only bet Mahomes as a dog, but reluctant due to Chargers’ D and unknowns with KC OL.
• Simon’s stance: Likes Herbert as a big dog (3.5+); "11-2-1 ATS as a 3.5+ dog… it's been a cash cow." (11:14)
  • Advises to wait for +3.5 before playing Chargers, warning public money will likely push it there.
  • Quote: "If you have a contest that you can get three and a half, feel like this might have to be an auto play." (11:01)

4. Raiders (+2.5) at Patriots (13:00–17:30)

• Market: Early pro money pushed line from +3 to +2.5.
• Simon’s caution: “We’re too close to it… this one feels too easy. I had it at +3, but 2.5 is not enough.”
  • Raiders at +3 or higher for contest, but not to force it at 2.5.
• Chad’s discipline: Reflects on winning as “not forcing” bets when value isn’t there.
  • “The best way to make money is to not lose money… I want the 3.” (16:14)

5. Browns (+5.5) vs. Bengals – “Chad Loves Love” (17:30–21:47)

• Simon’s pick: "Give me the Browns. Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 23–7 ATS since 2010." (19:08)
• Rationale: Browns match up well—they’re healthy, and Bengals’ OL still bad. Line inflated by Burrow factor/public hype.
• Chad’s take: “They think they can be papered over with Burrow, Chase, and Higgins and they can’t.”
• Verdict: Top consensus play; both love the Browns as home divisional dogs.

6. Lightning Rounds/Leans on Other Games

Cardinals (+6.5) at Saints (26:11–28:10)

• Both think the number is too big but lack faith in Cardinals to win; prefer to monitor line movement or play Saints if number hits 7+.

Giants (+6) at Commanders (28:10–31:58)

• Commanders' regression expected, but Giants' roster is so poor, even as divisional dogs, tough to back.
• Simon: Actually likes Commanders at -5.5, but surprised by pro money on Giants. Would play at -5.5, pending more info.

Panthers (+3.5) at Jaguars (32:03–34:46)

• Historically a “Panthers Podcast,” but unsure if Carolina can exploit Jaguars' weaknesses. Value exists, but no confidence.

Dolphins at Colts (-1.5) (35:04–37:55)

• Chad likes Miami due to Tua’s health and Colts’ awful week one record (2-14 ATS last 16 years).
• Simon only likes Miami as a teaser leg; calls the spot “too public” otherwise.

Steelers at Jets (+3) (38:44–42:20)

• Simon leans Jets, following the principle of fading Tomlin as a road favorite. But calls it “an ugly home dog spot” typical for him.

Buccaneers (+2.5) at Falcons (46:47–49:40)

• Simon: Happy to take Bucs under +3; Falcons (as divisional home dogs) have strong trends but concerns over rookie Michael Penix’s ability when under pressure.

Titans (+7.5) at Broncos (49:40–55:06)

• Chad tempted to back Broncos’ elite D vs. rookie Cam Ward, but Simon strongly advocates Titans based on inflated line and underdog trends against rookie QBs.
  • “Since the 1970 merger, rookie QBs are 8–21 outright in this spot, but 13–4 ATS in week one as dogs.” (53:40)

Lions (+2.5) at Packers (56:58–62:24)

• Major line move from Lions -1.5 to Lions +2.5 after Micah Parsons trade.
• Chad’s love: “Chad loves the Detroit Lions at plus two and a half.” (58:16)
• Simon: Quotes Dan Campbell/Goff’s September ATS dominance; despite pro money on Packers, sides with Chad, calls it “trappy,” but supports the value.

Ravens at Bills (-1.5) (62:32–64:42)

• Both prefer Baltimore, citing superior roster and revenge factor from playoff loss. Will revisit after additional info.

Vikings (-1.5) at Bears (64:42–67:49)

• Shock at line’s disrespect to Bears. Simon sees “overhype” on J.J. McCarthy (Vikings), with Chad noting home rookie dog in primetime is an automatic spot for Chicago.

7. Process, Philosophy, and Betting Wisdom

• Chad’s Self-Review: “The best way to make money is to not lose money. Trying to be really disciplined… not getting too excited if the number isn’t matching." (16:14)
• Simon on Home Dogs: “Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 23 and 7 against the spread since 2010.” (19:08)

8. Notable Quotes & Moments

• On value after a major trade:
  “The line has steamed two points. It’s freaking nuts. I can’t see any other reason other than the Parsons news… Normally, we’d be even more encouraged to play the Cowboys.”
  — Chad Millman (07:07)

• Herbert as underdog:
  “Any time he’s a 3.5 point dog against competition people view better, he covers. He’s a cover machine in this exact spot… 11-2-1 ATS.”
  — Simon Hunter (11:14)

• Home divisional dogs:
  “Since 2010, 23 and 7 against the spread for week 1 home dogs.”
  — Simon Hunter (19:08)

• On not forcing bets:
  “The best way to make money is not to lose money… don’t force it here on the 2.5.”
  — Chad Millman (16:14)

• Favorite play signal:
  “Chad loves love. Everyone knows I’m a romantic… I wanted to marry this bet.”
  — Chad Millman (18:16)

9. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Cowboys/Eagles line move: 06:55–08:56
• Chargers as dogs discussion: 10:56–12:49
• Browns-Bengals breakdown: 17:30–21:47
• Lions-Packers debate: 56:58–62:24
• Philosophy on betting discipline: 16:14–17:30

Actionable Bets & Contest Shortlist

The hosts’ favorites (subject to injury/news changes before Thursday):

• Strong Bets/Contest Leans:

  • Browns +5.5 (vs. Bengals)
  • Cowboys +8.5 (at Eagles)
  • Lions +2.5 (at Packers)
  • Bears +1.5 (vs. Vikings)
  • Chargers +3.5 (if line available, vs. Chiefs)
  • Ravens +1.5 or better (at Bills)

• Teaser/Monitor:

  • Dolphins as a tease (at Colts)
  • Broncos as Survivor pick (vs. Titans)
  • Washington -5.5 (vs. Giants; monitor line move)

Tone & Takeaways

Millman and Hunter bring a friendly, smart, and somewhat contrarian tone, focusing on early line value, disciplined contest entries, and fading consensus public narratives. There’s a blend of sharp number analysis and football handicapping—the pair is transparent about evolving their five contest picks based on midweek news and sharper market bets.

This summary provides all substantive NFL discussion; all ad breaks, intros, and non-content promos have been omitted.