Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square – EARLY 2026 NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS – Part 1
Date: March 4, 2026
Host: Chad Millman
Guest/Co-host: Simon Hunter
Episode Overview
This episode of "Sharp or Square," presented by Hard Rock Bet and part of The Volume Podcast Network, dives into the earliest 2026 NFL season win totals, focusing on the teams with an opening line of 10.5 wins and notable outliers. Host Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down initial reactions to these early numbers, share leanings (over/under, pass, strong bet), and articulate where sharp bettors may see value—even before free agency and the NFL Draft kick off in earnest. The show blends common fan curiosities, wiseguy logic, and some comedy, making it accessible but informative for both seasoned bettors and casual NFL fans.
Key segments include:
- Revisiting the Cleveland Browns' outlook and betting contradiction
- Rapid-fire opinions on NFL teams lined at 10.5 wins
- Notable disagreements and consensus picks
- Breakdown of potential traps and value plays, especially in relation to public perception and recent offseason changes
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. The Cleveland Browns Betting Dilemma (06:04)
Chad Millman opens with an email questioning their prior Super Bowl longshot recommendation on the Browns, juxtaposed against their negative view of Cleveland's win total for 2026 (set at 6.5).
- Simon Hunter: Recalls giving out Browns at 130:1 due to perceived value if "Watson still has any talent."
- Points out market pessimism (last year, season win total fell throughout the offseason, mainly on defense concerns and Watson's uncertainty).
- Quote:
"I think the market is telling you that they think it's gonna be another terrible year...the 6.5 feels pretty high and we don't know how that defense is going to be with the new DC." (06:47, Simon Hunter)
- Takeaway: Simon is not betting either side now, advises patience; if anything, doesn’t recommend rushing to bet the over.
2. Run-Through of Teams at 10.5 wins (Starts at 07:13)
Chad and Simon go team by team, quickly stating "over" or "under" and then discussing rationale and immediate leanings on early Numbers:
Baltimore Ravens (10.5) – Under
- Both agree: Take the under.
- Simon: "A tough division with unknown at the quarterback position, unknown at the head coaching position, the safe play is the under." (08:23)
- Cites Lamar's injury history, new coach uncertainty, and defensive inconsistency.
Buffalo Bills (10.5) – Disagreement, Simon on Over
- Chad: Leans under.
- Simon: Pounds the over—"way, way over...I have this graded over 11.5."
- Rationale: Belief in Josh Allen and Joe Brady, AFC East is weak, 4 auto wins vs Jets and Dolphins.
- Quote:
"If they still had McDermott, this is probably 11.5. Maybe the public feels more confident about it on the other way...I think this is a way, way over." (09:47, Simon Hunter)
Detroit Lions (10.5) – Under, Big Bet for Simon
- Both agree: Under, with Simon having substantial exposure.
- Offensive line injuries/attrition cited as key—"That O line is done...If Goff doesn't have an O line...that's going to be a problem."
- Simon: Argues the line is based on prior years' success, not current realities.
- Quote:
"This feels like a line from the past...I really like this under on this Detroit team." (12:13, Simon Hunter)
Green Bay Packers (10.5) – Over
- Both lean over for similar reasons—great coach-QB duo, last year’s injury luck, relatively weak division.
- Chad: "I'm glad they're bringing Leflore back. The Bears are the biggest challenge but...this is a very, very talented team." (13:03)
Kansas City Chiefs (10.5) – Under (with Caveat)
- Both caution: Caveat is Patrick Mahomes’ health.
- Simon refuses to bet either way this early due to injury risk.
- Simon: "I wouldn't put money on over this early on this type of team." Compares line to past expectation, believes books are treating it as a "pass number." (14:04)
LA Chargers (10.5) – Pass/Lean Over
- Chad: Skeptical; wants proof of durability and consistent offense.
- Simon: Slight lean over if fully healthy, but not making a real bet until more information on defense and adaptation to new coaching staff.
Denver Broncos (9.5) – Strong Over
- Simon sees huge value, calls it "one of the worst lines by the books."
- Prediction: Expect a move to 10.5 as market catches up.
- Believes Payton’s coaching, strong offensive line, and QB progression offer plenty of upside.
- Quote:
"That's a highly, highly motivated team in Denver. So, to me, that is a bad, bad number." (16:17, Simon Hunter)
3. Other 10.5 Win Total Teams (Begins 21:39)
LA Rams (10.5) – Under
- Both: Under.
- Rationale: Stafford unlikely to stay healthy/play at MVP level again, last year "everything broke their way" but not enough.
Philadelphia Eagles (10.5) – Over
- Both: Over, based on division weakness and roster construction.
- Simon: "Howie's just drafted so well. That step back still feels like 11, 10 wins...If it all clicks...easily a 13-win team." (23:19)
San Francisco 49ers (10.5) – Split
- Chad: Over (health caveat).
- Simon: Under, citing division strength and possible loss of Trent Williams.
- Quote:
"They're about to lose Trent Williams. It might be getting real ugly fast. We'll find out pretty quick how good is Purdy dealing with pressure." (28:44, Simon Hunter)
Seattle Seahawks (10.5) – Split
- Chad: Over, betting on defense to "win them six or seven games even if Darnold is shaky."
- Simon: Under—concerned about typical post–Super Bowl regression, doubts Darnold's consistency, sees hangover effect coming.
- Quote:
"We've seen this league just chew up these teams that win the super bowl the previous year...I do lean to the under on that number." (30:29, Simon Hunter)
4. Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On Football Obsession:
"We talked about football sitting by the pool...eating dinner...We talked about football so freaking much." (24:00, Chad Millman)
-
On Football as an Escape:
"When the rest of the world's falling apart, I really lean into football...It's the great equalizer." (25:31, Simon Hunter)
-
On Card Collecting:
"That's why Pokemon, One Piece, much safer. You never have to worry about a cartoon ever getting a DUI or sexual harassment." (27:30, Simon Hunter, after Chad's story about buying a Deshaun Watson rookie card)
5. Chad's Choice: The Carolina Panthers (6.5) (32:24)
- Chad's "sharp or square" pick is OVER 6.5 wins for the Panthers, based on an "open" NFC South, support for Bryce Young, defensive improvement, and coaching continuity.
- Simon immediately calls it a "trap," but with a laugh, says he'll ride with Chad "because we're a Carolina podcast."
- Quote:
"Trap, trap, trap. That's why I love you, Chad. You walked right into it. They got you. They got you good." (33:14, Simon Hunter)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Cleveland Browns Dilemma: 06:04
- Win Totals Rundown Starts: 07:13
- Baltimore Ravens: 08:10
- Buffalo Bills: 09:47
- Detroit Lions: 11:10
- Green Bay Packers: 12:37
- Kansas City Chiefs: 13:52
- LA Chargers: 14:44
- Denver Broncos: 16:00
- LA Rams: 21:39
- Philadelphia Eagles: 22:53
- San Francisco 49ers: 28:07
- Seattle Seahawks: 29:27
- Football as Life: 24:00, 25:31
- Chad's Choice (Panthers): 32:24
Summary Table: Early Season Win Totals Leanings
| Team | Line | Chad | Simon | Notes (Betting Stance) | |---------------------|--------|------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------| | Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | Under| Under | Uncertainty, injuries, coaching change | | Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | Under| Over | Simon’s 2nd strongest play (over), weak division | | Detroit Lions | 10.5 | Under| Under | Simon’s top under, O-line/injury regression | | Green Bay Packers | 10.5 | Over | Over | Healthy, best division value | | KC Chiefs | 10.5 | Under| Under | Only due to Mahomes injury possibility | | LA Chargers | 10.5 | Pass | Lean O| Not betting, needs proof of consistent health | | Denver Broncos | 9.5 | Over | Over | Simon’s favorite R.O.I play, expects line to move up | | L.A. Rams | 10.5 | Under| Under | Past peak, too reliant on Stafford health | | Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | Over | Over | Division weakness, deep roster | | San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | Over | Under | Chad (over, health dependent), Simon under, loss of LT | | Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 | Over | Under | Chad (defensive upside), Simon (Super Bowl hangover) | | Panthers | 6.5 | Over | "Trap"| Chad's pick, Simon says a "trap" but will join for fun |
Memorable Moments:
- Baltimore/Detroit/Denver Value Calls: Simon identifies where he believes books have left exploitable numbers, contrasting professional vs. public perception.
- Camaraderie and banter: Multiple references to their friendship and “compadres” role, linking their chemistry to famous media duos for comedic effect.
- Personal betting stories: Both bring up real-money plays, including prior wins and misses around the Browns and anecdotes about collecting (and losing on) sports memorabilia.
- Discussion of football's importance: Warm moment as they share how fandom and year-round football discussion bring people together, even outside the NFL season.
Conclusion
Chad and Simon provide a sharp square-off on the earliest 2026 NFL win totals, laying out actionable logic, sharp-vs-square thinking, and real-world betting context even before the market crystallizes post–free agency and draft. The episode solidifies key early value opinions (Detroit UNDER, Denver OVER, Buffalo OVER), and teases further breakdowns for teams outside the 10.5 threshold in next week's part two.
For more insights, rate, review, and subscribe to "Sharp or Square" via Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube. Listen next week for deeper dives on lower-win teams and more contrarian takes.