Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square - FINAL AFC & NFC Conference Championship NFL Playoff Bets: Rams-Seahawks, Patriots-Broncos
Date: January 25, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

In this high-stakes edition of "Sharp or Square," Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down their favorite bets and strategy for the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games: Patriots at Broncos and Rams at Seahawks. The pair give listeners a rare behind-the-scenes look at professional betting logic, share their contest picks (both sides and props), and highlight the most meaningful line movement, injuries, and matchups, all while infusing their signature camaraderie and wit.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Art of Naming Football Plays & Memorable Moments

• (03:15–04:14)
  The episode opens with playful banter about the iconic naming of football plays, referencing "the catch," "the helmet catch," and Chicago's Caleb Williams' famous but ultimately insufficient playoff throw, which Simon pitches as "that throw."
  • Quote:
    • Simon Hunter: "I'm trying to think—Is there anything else comparable? When you say, did you see that Caleb throw? For now, for the next couple years, everyone's going to mention that fourth down play. The throw might stick." (03:27)
  • Chad Millman: Suggests refining the name to simply "that throw."

2. Patriots at Broncos: Dissecting the Line Movement and Matchups

• (05:06–11:56)
  Extensive discussion on why the betting market moved dramatically in favor of the Broncos, the implications of injuries, and why both hosts agree Denver is the sharp side.

  Market and Injury Insights

  • The line moved from Denver +5.5 to +3.5/+4, reflecting sharp money backing the Broncos due to the minimal perceived difference between Bo Nix and Jared Stidham.
  • Missing Denver RB J.K. Dobbins hurts from a leadership perspective, but not gameplay. Mac Hollins's possible return for New England improves their offense.

  Rationale for Denver

  • Simon:
    • "I went really heavy on Denver. Thank God it didn’t go up the other way. That’s always scary... But this is what you dream of when you make those types of bets." (06:04)
    • "The rest of the [Denver] team is so complete, you expect it to carry them." (06:41)
    • Points out Sean Payton’s record ATS with backup QBs (13–6), referencing past success with Teddy Bridgewater (08:10).
  • Historical Trends: Since 1950, home dogs of 4+ points are 90% against the spread (07:11).
  • Futures Movement: Broncos' odds have dropped from 13–1/14–1 to 10–1 amid professional betting activity.

  Prop Bets & Playoff Betting Philosophy

  • Chad:
    • Took Stidham overs (passing attempts, passing yards) citing the likely game plan with Dobbins out.
      • "I am breaking all my rules during the playoffs just for this game." (09:13)
  • Simon:
    • Likes Stidham over rushing yards, foresees a pass-heavy attack (09:36).
  • Both agree turnovers (by both inexperienced QBs) could create scoring opportunities and favor the over on total points.

  Betting the Total

  • Both liked the over at 42.5, and still lean over at 43.5, citing expected short fields and red zone strength (11:12).
    • Simon: "My feeling was... these are both inexperienced quarterbacks... so we expect short fields." (11:17)

3. Rams at Seahawks: Rest, Injuries, and the “Brass Balls” Bet

• (12:22–17:22)

  Game Context & Betting Challenge

  • Spread at Seahawks -2.5.
  • Both hosts initially split; ultimately, Simon convinces Chad to make Seattle their "brass balls" contest pick due to the rest advantage.

  Key Factors

  • Rest Disparity:
    • Rams come off an OT game and are on their fourth straight road game.
    • Simon: "Underdogs in this exact spot, 9 and 25 straight up in NFL history. If you’re in overtime in the playoffs and you’re on the road now... it’s a death sentence." (14:18)
    • Caleb Williams and Matthew Stafford both look battered; Stafford faces a significant disadvantage on the road with short rest.
  • Special Teams Edge:
    • Rams' special teams have been bottom 25 all year (16:55); Seahawks are 3rd best, another small but significant edge.

  Game Style & Coaching

  • Predicts Seahawks will lean into defensive, conservative play; Rams (under McVay) will be aggressive but may get punished.
  • Simon: "I think McVay goes for every fourth down. I once again think that plays in the Seahawks' hands." (15:35)
  • Seahawks’ approach has changed—more defensive, less reliant on QB heroics.

4. Props and Mathematical Angles

• (22:58–25:42)

  • Patriots-Broncos Props:

    • Jared Stidham over 0.5 interceptions: Both like the over; Stidham’s style plus expected volume make this likely.
    • Chad: "We like Stidham over the half an interception." (23:25)

  • Rams-Seahawks Props:

    • Jackson Smith-Njigba under 0.5 touchdowns: Simon does the math, noting he’s only scored in 4 of 16 games; contest price is -110 when it should be longer.
    • Simon: "If you go through it, okay, he has 10 touchdowns this season—four in four games. So, I mean, I'm no mathematician... It's less than 50% chance that he's going to score." (24:14)

5. Notable Stats and Historical Angles

• Sean Payton with Backup QBs:
  13–6 against the spread (08:10)
• Post-Overtime Playoff Teams with Rest Disadvantage:
  Teams coming off playoff overtime losses and at a rest disadvantage are 6–13 straight up all time, but just 1–8 in this exact rest scenario (25:25, via Evan Abrams).
  • Simon: “It’s just once again a brutal, brutal spot for this Rams team.” (25:42)

Final Picks Recap (25:42–25:57)

Full contest slate:

• Side: Denver Broncos (+4.5 in contest, still like at +3.5 or +4)
• Total: Patriots-Broncos over 42.5 (like up to 43.5)
• Side: Seattle Seahawks –2.5 (“brass balls” pick)
• Prop: Jared Stidham to throw an interception
• Prop: Jackson Smith-Njigba to NOT score a touchdown

Chad: “We are much more invested in the Broncos and the Broncos’ success today than any... across the board in the Broncos’ success.” (25:45)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [03:15] Historic NFL play names and playoff nostalgia
• [05:06] Patriots at Broncos—market movement, injuries, line analysis
• [09:03] Stidham prop discussion and playoff betting approach
• [11:12] Total points—analysis of the over
• [12:22] Rams at Seahawks—side selection, rest, special teams
• [14:18] Why short rest for OT road teams is a “death sentence”
• [16:55] Special teams breakdown
• [22:58] Contest prop picks and mathematical reasoning
• [25:42] Recap of all contest picks and final thoughts

Memorable Quotes

• Simon Hunter:
  • "This is what you dream of when you make those type of bets." (06:04)
  • “The rest of the team is so complete, you expect it to carry them.” (06:41)
  • “This is probably gonna be my biggest bet of the season, this Denver on this number.” (09:36)
  • “If you’re in overtime in the playoffs and you’re on the road now and you have worse rest than your team you’re playing against, it’s a death sentence.” (14:18)
• Chad Millman:
  • “I am breaking every rule that I have for myself during the regular season. I am breaking during the playoffs just because—just for this game.” (09:36)

Overall Tone

• Engaged, enthusiastic, and analytical, with a camaraderie that reflects mutual respect and friendly debate.
• Clear, confident betting logic but always with humility (“It’s sports—anything can happen.”).
• Plenty of actionable insights for bettors and fans alike.

Summary Table: Final Picks & Why

| Type | Pick | Reasoning | |-----------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Side | Broncos (+4.5, like at +3.5/+4) | Sharp line movement, Payton’s record with backups, Broncos undervalued, good matchup | | Total | Over 42.5 (now 43.5) | Expected turnovers, short fields, strong red zone offense, both QBs in new situations | | Side | Seahawks –2.5 (brass balls pick) | Major rest advantage, Rams’ rough travel/OT spot, special teams edge, Seahawks' defensive form | | Prop | Stidham Over 0.5 INT | Likely high volume, playoff pressure, sharp price | | Prop | Smith-Njigba Under 0.5 TD | Statistical value vs implied odds, not his usual scoring range |

For Listeners

This episode balances big-picture betting strategies, contest-specific analysis, statistical trends, and fun, memorable football talk. Even if you haven’t listened, you’ll walk away with a clear understanding of both games, the rationale behind each selection, and the kind of professional logic applied by sharp bettors ahead of the Conference Championships.