← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - FINAL AFC & NFC Conference Championship NFL Playoff Bets: Rams-Seahawks, Patriots-Broncos
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- [00:00]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
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- [00:33]
Simon Hunter
That'S odoo.com new year same extra value meals at McDonald's.
- [00:39]
Commercial Voice
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- [00:43]
Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska and California.
- [00:49]
Gronk
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- [01:21]
Simon Hunter
Boom.
- [01:21]
Commercial Voice
Hydration done right?
- [01:24]
Gronk
I'm assuming you guys will be tuning into the game, so remember to keep an eye out for Liquid IV while you watch. Stay Hydrated. Stock up on liquid IV@liquid-iv.com and use the code nuthouse for 20% off for a first time purchase.
- [01:42]
Public Investing Advertiser
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member finra, SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures welcome.
- [02:53]
Chad Millman
To Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [03:15]
Simon Hunter
Chad. We made the game day. I. I love these type of moments because it's, it's the moment before the moment. Will we have the historical moments that we remember forever? You know the catch, the helmet catch.
- [03:27]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [03:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. The, you know, it's, it's. I honestly, I was, I was joking the buddy. If, if the Bears had won and obviously gone through, what would we have called Caleb Williams play? I said the throw because I'm trying to think is there anything else even comparable? When you say did you see that Caleb throw? For now, for the next couple years, I feel like everyone's going to mention that fourth down play. The throw might stick. Obviously we'll move on because it's, it didn't lead to anything but it's like the Immaculate Reception. All these amazing names we have for football. I know that Caleb play so far these playoffs, that's the only one I could think of that was like historical name that play type of play.
- [04:05]
Chad Millman
Simon, as an editor I would make one adjustment to what you're calling it, which I think is brilliant. I would call it that throw.
- [04:14]
Simon Hunter
That throw.
- [04:15]
Chad Millman
That throw, that Caleb throw. Well, unfortunately we don't get the Bears. We, we get an aging quarterback off of an overtime game and short rest against a quarterback who is taking painkilling shots for an oblique. We get a backup quarterback against a second year quarterback who is trying to take his team to the super bowl and revive an entire community here in New England. It is time to get into it, my friend. It's the conference championship version of the semi strip down in the room. Sharper Square in which Simon and I are going to nail down the five picks. A lot of injury talk, a lot of line move talk. If you're in the contest, you can track us at chat at. Simon. Chad Simon. BFFs. Are you ready Simon?
- [05:05]
Simon Hunter
Let's go, buddy.
- [05:07]
Chad Millman
All right. So this first game is just fascinating, right? The New England Patriots visiting the Denver Broncos. Huge line move. The line is now three and a half four at Hard Rock. But Three and a half and a lot of other places. Total is 43 and a half. Simon says was Denver at plus five and a half. The line move has been so big that I got an alert from ESPN yesterday that it is down to three and a half at most places. Also, the total has come up from 40 and a half. Huge, huge move on the Broncos professionals. Just buying in on Jared Stidham that basically they're realizing, wait a second, there's just not a big enough difference between Bonix and Jared stidham. We have 100% put the Broncos into our play in the contest because they were at four and a half in the contest. So we're invested. We're just invested in the Broncos in every way.
- [06:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's. It's nice. Obviously we didn't win on Pittsburgh in the first round, but, you know, gave out Pittsburgh three and a half. You only time you could ever got that number last week, gave out Denver plus one and a half. Only time you could ever get that number in this week, Denver five and a half. So, you know, hopefully we can get another win here on Denver at a good number. But this is, this is what you dream of when you make those type of bets. Right. I went really heavy on Denver. Thank God it didn't go up the other way. Right. That's always scary when it goes up to the six and six and a half. Another way it went, complete opposite. Right now it's down to three and a half, four, which is exactly what we predicted and we hope to see. And I think people are like us, right. They're starting to see the matchup isn't that bad for Denver is as much as they might struggle the quarterback position here. Right. The rest of the team is so complete, you expected to carry them. And just for one game, the guys round around the quarterback here feels like the type of game where it could easily happen. And I'm happy to see that I wasn't total off when I said this number probably should be three. Three and a half. The books have finally come around their senses and reflected that. And even our futures we talked about you could have got Denver 13 to 1, 14 to 1. It's basically 10 to 1 now at every book, right?
- [07:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [07:12]
Simon Hunter
The pros have kind of watched a tape on Cinem this week. Stitty is what everyone's calling them. It's come way down. And that's. That's the dream for us. Right. So I won't bore people with all the numbers once again. I mean, since 1950s dogs home dogs of four. Four points or more at home since 1950s. People 90 against the spread. So hoping that continues for us. Chad, we love the number here and we're just really into Patriots. They are a good team. They do deserve to be here. They're. They're a tad bit overrated by the general public. The line reflected that. The number went up too high too quick. The books, just like I am, are very happy in their position. Right. Can we lose this bet? Of course. It's. It's a coin flip. You never know what can happen, right? It's. It's sports. But I feel like our early read was right here with back in this Denver team and just the fact that this is a good matchup for them at home. You know, Sean Payton, once again, everyone's seen these numbers with backup quarterbacks. He's one of the best coaches ever against the spread. Right. He's 13 and 6 against the spread with a backup quarterback. So we, we remember the days with Teddy Bridgewater. Came in after Drew Brees. Got banged up and played really well and kept covering. And it's just, they kind of the MO here with Sean Payton. He gets the guys to rally around the quarterback play. So unfortunately for us, Chad, I, I did bank on Franklin being back. I don't know if he'll play. He's been limited all week with the hamstring. The big one that hurt to me is the Dobbins. I really thought Domino was gonna make a run at it. The running back for Denver, which again, not the biggest deal. Like you said, it wasn't like he was going to play a ton of snaps anyway. To me it was just a big deal because he is just a leader of that team. Everyone on the team loves Dobbins, so at least you'll be on the sideline. But a big miss for them with not getting diamonds back. On the flip side, looks like Mac Mac Hollins might be back here for the Patriots, which is a big deal for them as well. And you know, as much as that hurts us on the spread, I think that helps us with the total, which we also like here. So nothing's wavered for me, Chad. Still really confident this Broncos team and still my favorite bet this week.
- [09:04]
Chad Millman
I have also heavily invested in Jared Stidham. Props. I'm over his 31 and a half passing attempts.
- [09:14]
Simon Hunter
Okay.
- [09:15]
Chad Millman
I think I did an alt over his 260 passing yards. I also did a. A single game. I'm going like every rule that I, that I have for myself during the regular season. I am breaking during the playoffs just because just for this game. Specifically for this game.
- [09:36]
Simon Hunter
It's fun getting action. I mean honestly it doesn't come compare like this is probably gonna be my biggest bet of the season this Denver on this number. But I'm like you I did some props. I would say the prop I'd give on this show. I think he's over rushing yards.
- [09:49]
Chad Millman
I mean that's I took drake may over 40 rushing. Let me just finish because the parlay I did that yes GP I did was stid him over 260 passing yards. Stid him over 30. It's 32 plus passing attempts and Drake may 40 plus rushing yards. Because I don't think we talked about this on the show with J.K. dobbins out. I think that Sean Payton builds a game plan where he's just leaning into Jared stidham. He had 11 rushing attempts called 11 rushing attempts in that overtime game against the Bills. The Patriots rushing defense is dominant. It lines up for Stidham who has never had fewer than 32 pass attempts in his four starts to just sling the ball.
- [10:33]
Simon Hunter
And it could just be what they go back to which is Champagne's offense of if they don't run it they're happy champions happy at three or four three or four yard completion. This is Drew Brady, Drew Brees days that's been his like.
- [10:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah that's right.
- [10:46]
Simon Hunter
If he doesn't like the look with the run he'll have the QB check out it and just take the 3 yard 4 yard completion. Just keep the sticks moving. So I don't hate that bet by you at all.
- [10:57]
Chad Millman
We're also on the over. We had bettered at 42 and a half in the contest. That's what's been available. It's now at 43 and a half. Do you have a strong opinion? 43 is a key number. So do you have a strong opinion now that it's over 43 and a half.
- [11:12]
Simon Hunter
No still on it. Like you I, I, I wish I had hammered this one on Tuesday. Sure it was 40 or 40 and a half and my, my feeling was though it was right that most guys will look at this game that there could be turnovers by both these quarterbacks. Right. These are both inexperienced quarterbacks. One's making his first playoffs or the ones making his first road playoff start. There's got to be some nerves and some jitter. So we expect short fields. And we've seen Drake May been really good in the red zone. He tends to score touchdowns. And on the flip side, you've seen Sean Payton scheming up that his teams get in the red zone. They tend to score as well. So I haven't wavered on the total at all. It's the type of game too, where it feels like if it's even 16, 14 head into the fourth quarter, you could see a ton of points.
- [11:56]
Chad Millman
Totally.
- [11:57]
Simon Hunter
It seems like both these teams could turn it on at any point. So we just got to keep an arm's reach. If it's ten, three and a half, I'm not gonna be lying. I'll be a little worried about this total if it's at the beginning because again, either of these quarterbacks we talked about it could lay an easily lay an egg. Right. It's two defenses that have been playing really well, especially, you know, down the stretch for Denver and in the playoffs for this Patriots team. So I can't wait to see what happens. 1. But yeah, nice to see the pros are with us. Right. This number has been bent up all week.
- [12:23]
Chad Millman
Los Angeles Rams at the Seattle Seahawks. The line is still two and a half. The totals come down just a touch, 45 and a half. This was our biggest debate of the week, to the point where you and I chatted yesterday and had a long conversation about it. I think we're still a little bit split, but on the call yesterday, you had some really compelling arguments about the Seattle Seahawks. And that is why the Seattle Seahawks at minus two and a half are going to be our brass ball. Better the week presented by Hard Rock. Bet you know what it takes.
- [13:12]
Wasabi Advertiser
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- [13:16]
Chad Millman
The Seattle Seahawks going in the contest at minus two and a half share with everybody. Simon, what you told me yesterday to convince me that it was time to pull the trigger on the Seahawks, at least for the contest.
- [13:33]
Simon Hunter
I mean, there's a lot of things I feel like at the end of the day, what we've talked about, when both these teams are so evenly matched, when you talk about how they played two games this year and both decided by two points and one point, that it's been that close of a margin, what was going to be the difference in this matchup? Right. If these two teams know each other so well, I ship trying to beat your head over the rest. The rest to me is gonna be the big deciding factor in this game and how these teams hold up, especially in the second half. And what I brought up the Chad was if he saw that clip, I don't know if any anyone else has seen it of Caleb Williams at the Blackhawks game walking up the stairs to leave the Blackhawks game and he basically looked like a 50 year old man or I shouldn't even say that. 80 year old man walking up the stairs.
- [14:15]
Chad Millman
I was gonna say 50 year old men, they can be spry.
- [14:18]
Simon Hunter
They can but they can look beat up after getting hit. Hit up, hit around a couple couple rounds. But he just looked so broken like he basically was holding the handrail all the way up and just looked like every step was aching pain. Okay. Caleb Williams is what, 23, 24 years old. Go to the flip side, go to Stafford who threw the ball more, take more hits in that game and is now on a short week on the road once again playing a Seahawks team that was is basically well rested. Basically have played three quarters in three weeks. Like you couldn't have dreamed a better scenario for this Yog steam and it's like that static keep giving out to people underdogs in this exact spot, 9 and 25 straight up in the history of the NFL. It just. If you're in overtime in the playoffs and you're on the road now and you have worse rest than your team you're playing against, it's a death sentence. It's just so much overcome. So Ken Stafford overcome it? Of course. I mean he, if any quarterback can play well against Seahawks defense has been Stafford. He has lit them up. On the flip side, Darnold has struggled against this Seahawks team but I think people are reading way too much into it like these teams are not, not the same teams they were last time they played. They've changed so much not just because of health wise but just their identity where I really think the Seahawks team has found something in the sense that they know they just need to lean into the defense. They just know that. Like it just feels like they've totally shifted that way where it's. They've kind of taken the ball out of Sandrano's hands. I don't see them going for it on 4th and twos, 4th and threes. I think they're going to punt, play it safe. On the flip side I think McVeigh goes for every fourth down. I think he's highly aggressive. I once again think that plays in the Seahawks hands like this defense they will get stopped. So yeah, this was a tough one. Like you said a lot of background. I would say whatever confidence you did have in the Rams, I have much more in the Seahawks and that kind of won the battle in our argument. And yeah this, that's where I know it's kind of boring picking both one seeds here, but picking them both for such different unique situations and reasoning. And the biggest win here for this Seahawks team is I, I just feel like they are going to really pay dividends to what they did at the end of the season, which was winning that game against 49ers. Now they've rested well. This, this, you know, this Rams team, they blew that game against the Seahawks, they blew that game against the Eagles and we knew eventually it'd come back and bite them. I think this is the end to come back. Some bite them. Like this is just such a horrible spot to be in and they have no one to blame themselves. Right? They could have been at home in this exact scenario themselves. Instead, they're on their fourth straight road game going into a hostile environment. And to me, a game. Something we haven't talked enough about was the special teams match up. The Rams, oh yeah, my model, they've been in the bottom 25 all year.
- [16:56]
Chad Millman
And special, they fired their coach like at the end of the season, before.
- [16:59]
Simon Hunter
The season was over and got rid of their kicker because he kept missing field goals. And on the flip side, Seahawks, they're my number three graded special teams. And once again we talk about how small these margins are going to be. These things keep adding up and it's just like how this is not all this favor the Seahawks team. So yeah, I'm obviously nowhere near as confident I am in the Broncos compared to Seahawks team. But I love this bet. I'm happy we're getting this one. The contest.
- [17:23]
Chad Millman
All right, let's take a quick listen to a word from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet, Florida's sportsbook. I've been using it a bunch these past couple of days. These playoffs have been crazy so far and the best way to cash in on those unexpected moments is with Hard Rock that this weekend two teams will punch their tickets to the big game. Which means we've got two huge games perfect for building same game parlays. And if you miss kickoff, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting, so you're never too late to get to the action, find a winner or grab the player prop you missed before kickoff. You can even live bet between snaps in just a few easy taps. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets between same game parlays, live betting, a can't miss welcome offer and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. So download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable in Bonus Bet is not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia support for the show.
- [19:04]
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- [20:13]
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- [22:58]
Chad Millman
We've talked about the size and the totals in the contest that we're playing. There are props that are some of the choices just because we need to make five picks and there's only two sides and two totals. So in the contest the props include for the Patriots and Broncos, Jared Stidham over or under half an interception. So Will here won't he throw an interception? Drake May over under I think it was a touchdown. And for this, because we expect Stidham, who hasn't played obviously in a couple of years, to be slinging it. We like Stidham over the half an interception. So we like him to throw an interception. In the Rams and the Seahawks, the options were Stafford over under 39 and a half yards for his longest path and Jackson Smith and Jigma and Jigba over, under half a touchdown. We decided to go with, with Jackson Smith in Jigba under half a touchdown, basically no touchdown. Simon, I thought you just had really good logic on why we were making that choice. I want you to explain it to everybody sort of mathematically because you're thinking about it as professional better, not just sort of as what might happen on the field.
- [24:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we, we love steady. It's just we're playing the math like Chad just said. It's. It's now up to minus 140 in the throw pick. So we're getting that. And JSN, another guy where, you know, anytime touchdown. Minus 110. Sure, that's fair. If you go through it okay, he has 10 touchdowns this season, four in four games. He scored two touchdowns. So, I mean, I'm no mathematician. You guys can do the math. It's, it's less than 50 chance that he's going to score a touchdown. These games, if you just go based off this season, he's being priced as if it's, you know, basically better than 50. And if you look at the math as well, it's minus 150 for a no touchdown in our contest. Like you, Chad said, we're getting minus 110. So it's, it's a good, it's two, two really logical good bets. And yeah, I just, you know, as much as we love Seattle and we think JSN has a possibility to score, there's other pieces on their team. They're going to focus on here and where you think the Rams, that'll be the guy they'll be focused on and take away. So I love both our props. And one more thing, I'll get out of here. I forgot to mention our guy, Evan Abrams. Just one more stat I'll give out before we give out here. Teams of overtime wins in the playoffs, 6 and 13 straight up in the next round when they're off overtime and at a rest disadvantage, 1 and 8 straight up in the NFL playoffs history. It's just once again a brutal, brutal spot for this Rams team.
- [25:43]
Chad Millman
All right, so our final five, we're going with the Denver Broncos. We got them at four and a half in the contest. They're at three and a half. We still like them at three and a half. We are, we are much more invested in the Broncos and the Broncos success today and try to find the four though than any. Yeah, you can get some fours. We are much more invested across the board in the Broncos success. We're also on this game. Over 42 and a half in the contest. It's a 43 and a half. Most places still like the total. There we are on the Seahawks. That's our brass balls. Better the week at minus two and a half. The rest advantage for the Seahawks was the ultimate deciding factor for us choosing that. And then we put in two props into the contest. Jared Stidham to throw an interception and Jackson, Smith and Jigba to not score a touchdown. Those are the five. We will be back later tonight, our final Sunday show. Sunday evening show of the year. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast network. The show will come on after after the Rams Seahawks game. We're going to recap all the glory and misery of the day. Should be an exciting day. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want until tonight. Love you.
- [27:07]
Simon Hunter
The road to the super bowl is like a mythic quest. It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes.
- [27:20]
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- [29:20]
Simon Hunter
Get started this is an iHeart podcast.
- [29:23]
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