The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square – FINAL Divisional Round NFL Bets: Rams-Panthers, Packers-Bears, Niners-Eagles, Chargers-Patriots
Date: January 17, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Overview
This Divisional Round edition of Sharp or Square is all about finalizing the hosts’ five favorite NFL bets for this playoff weekend. Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down four divisional round matchups, analyze betting angles, public vs. professional betting trends, injuries, and historical playoff data, and ultimately lock in their “final five” contest picks. Authentic, banter-heavy, and loaded with betting insight, the episode gives listeners both expert breakdowns and a peek into the emotional rollercoaster of betting and fandom.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Season Context & Emotional Set-Up
- Personal/Fan Angles: Simon shares excitement about a personal sports weekend—traveling to Miami to watch both his Bears and Indiana Hoosiers (03:18). Chad and Simon both acknowledge how rare and joyful these playoff moments are for die-hard fans.
“It is... the best time of year if you love good football, right? It’s the highest level being played...” – Chad Millman (03:18)
2. Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers: Total (Under 45.5)
Segment Start: 05:57
Pick: Under 45.5
- Stat & Trend Logic:
- Historically, when two teams go under in both prior meetings, the third game leans over ~57% of the time—caution to bettors.
- Significant injuries for San Francisco (Sam Darnold’s health status, no George Kittle/Trent Williams), the public heavily on the under, while pros target the over and the Seahawks.
- Play Style Analysis: Both offenses expected to lean heavily on the run and ball control due to personnel/injuries.
- Market Movement: Line ticking down (started at 46, some books now as low as 44.5), signaling uncertainty over Darnold’s status.
Notable Quote:
“I still really like the under plain just about both—I see these offenses playing right, I think they're both going to try to lean heavy into the run for this matchup on ball control.”
— Simon Hunter (08:16)
3. Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Side and Total
Start: 08:53
Patriots -3.5
Total: Under 41 (some books 40.5)
Patriots -3.5
- Patriots as Favorites: Simon and Chad like the Patriots at -3.5, buoyed by trends of playoff favorites and the struggles of teams (like Houston) who’ve won 10+ games and are dogs in the Divisional round.
- Key Trends:
- Drake Maye (Pats QB) as a favorite of 3+ points is 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS.
- Teams with 10 straight wins becoming underdogs in this round: 0-14 SU, 1-3 ATS.
- Analysis: New England's ability to exploit Houston’s main defensive weakness (deep ball) and Houston’s potentially depleted offense with Nico Collins and OL injuries.
Notable Quotes:
“If that's the only real weakness, this Houston defense, you expect him to exploit it like that?”
— Chad Millman (11:31)
Under 41 (or 40.5)
- Weather & Defense: Expect low scoring, noting both teams’ defenses and possible weather. Any injury or weather could drop the line; recommend under at 41 if still available.
- CFJ Stroud Analysis: Worry about Houston’s offense without Collins against a full-strength Patriots secondary, especially Christian Gonzalez.
4. San Francisco 49ers +7.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Start: 15:07
- Betting Trends & Angles:
- The majority of respected pro and public money on the 49ers.
- Historical stat: Teams that missed playoffs last year but are a dog in the divisional round are 29-14 ATS since 2003 (67%).
- But: Underdogs in the wild card round who stay dogs for divisional are just 3-22 SU in the next round—potential caveat on outright winner.
- Injury Angle: Niners are banged up but historically cover; third head-to-head game means likely tightly contested matchup.
Notable Quote:
“Everything went wrong the last time they played… at the end of the day, we’re getting a great number here. Let’s take it.”
— Simon Hunter (17:22)
5. LA Rams -4 at Chicago Bears
Start: 19:42
- Weather Factor & Historical Context: Chad recalls attending the last Rams-Bears playoff game 40 years ago; points out current icy, snowy conditions in Chicago.
- Rams Betting Preference: Chad prefers the Rams for full game and even more so the 1st half -2.5, plus the first half under (23.5). Bears have repeatedly rallied late—seven comebacks with less than two minutes left this season (NFL record).
- Emotional Hedge: Simon acknowledges emotional risk; as a Bears fan, if the bet loses, at least his fandom wins.
Notable Quote:
“They've come back with two minutes down, two minutes left in the game seven times. NFL record.”
— Simon Hunter (21:32)
6. Official “Rock and a Hard Place” Bet & Final Five
Segment Start: 21:45 & 27:39
- Rock and a Hard Place Bet (First Half Under 23.5 Rams-Bears):
“We liked it at 25.5. On Tuesday, it’s at 23.5. We’re still recommending you take the under at 23.5.”
— Simon Hunter (21:51)
The Final Five Picks (for Sharper Square Contest)
- Seahawks-49ers UNDER 45.5
- 49ers +7.5
- Patriots -3.5
- Patriots-Texans UNDER 40.5
- Rams -4.5
Discussion on Final Pick:
- Considered but passed on Buffalo-Denver. Both don’t love betting against Josh Allen or on Bo Nix, so stuck with Rams.
Notable Quote:
“At the end of the day, I won’t hate myself if I lose on Stafford against Caleb. Where if we lose in the contest because I took Bo Nix over Josh Allen… terrible.”
— Chad Millman (29:28)
Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)
- “It’s the best time of year if you love good football...”
— Chad Millman (03:18) - “I still really like the under... I think they're both going to try to lean heavy into the run for this matchup...”
— Simon Hunter (08:16) - "We've seen CJ [Stroud] struggle on the road. I think losing Nico [Collins] is gonna be too much for him to overcome here.”
— Chad Millman (12:58) - “They've come back with two minutes down... seven times. NFL record.”
— Simon Hunter (21:32) - “We’re still recommending you take the under at 23.5 [Rams-Bears 1st half].”
— Simon Hunter (21:51) - “At the end of the day, I won’t hate myself if I lose on Stafford against Caleb. Where if we lose in the contest because I took Bo Nix over Josh Allen... terrible.”
— Chad Millman (29:28)
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Time | Segment/Topic | |---------|--------------------------------------| | 02:06 | Intro, show set-up | | 05:57 | Seahawks-49ers total (under) | | 08:53 | Patriots-Texans, side and total | | 12:59 | Patriots-Houston in-depth breakdown | | 15:07 | 49ers-Seahawks spread | | 19:42 | Rams-Bears match-up | | 21:45 | Rock and a Hard Place Bet | | 27:39 | Final Five Bets / Contest Picks | | 30:51 | Official submission recap |
Episode Tone and Style
True to The Herd's analytical yet conversational tone, Millman and Hunter combine genuine fan passion with professional betting acumen. The banter and mutual ribbing are present, but every angle discussed is data-driven—sometimes highlighting the anxiety and psychology of both betting and being a fan.
Summary: What Listeners Should Take Away
For bettors and fans, this episode arms you with:
- Betting trends and playoff context crucial for divisional round wagers
- Injury and weather impacts on lines and totals
- The “final five” side/total contest plays from two sharp minds—complete with reasoning, stats, and caveats
- A reminder that fandom and betting heartache are never far apart this time of year
Whether you’re trying to sharpen up your own picks or just want to understand the betting mindset as playoffs peak, this episode is your divisional round cheat sheet.