The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square – Final NFL Week 10 Bets

Episode Air Date: November 9, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Main Theme:
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter finalize their picks for NFL Week 10, breaking down sharp (“wise guy”) versus square (“public”) betting angles, debating key injuries and line moves, and explaining which sides landed in their contest “Final Five.” The show offers strategies for contest play and a humorous, candid look at the week’s NFL lines.

Overview

• Purpose: Finalize five best NFL bets for the week, weighing sharp/public dynamics, injury reports, and line moves.
• Tone: Informal, lively, and banter-driven, with a mix of betting strategy and personal sports anecdotes.
• Highlighted Games: Eagles-Packers, Giants-Bears, Patriots-Bucs, Bills-Dolphins, Rams-49ers, Cardinals-Seahawks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Recap & Opener (03:42–06:11)

• Chad raves about Indiana University’s big football moment, highlighting the personal highs of college sport fandom and legendary broadcaster Gus Johnson’s wild commentary.
  • Chad: “Heisman doza mania is real. This is what it's like to be a college football fan.” (04:11)
  • Simon: “Gus Johnson ... goes insane and goes crazy. He also does these like Non sequiturs that are just hilarious to me.” (05:09)

2. NFL Week 10 Final Five Picks Discussion (06:11–31:43)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Ravens -3.5

• Reasoning: Number dropped to an irresistible three and a half; both love the Ravens despite line movement toward Minnesota.
• Simon: “You're betting on lightning to strike twice if you're back in JJ McCarthy ... it just feels like this is a great spot for this Ravens team.” (07:09)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots

Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

• Reasoning: Despite sharp action on Patriots, hosts lean on Tampa’s veteran experience and question Drake Maye’s ability to keep up minus key pieces.
• Chad: “The more I think about this game, the more I feel like the Bucs are the side here. I know you're with me.” (08:41)
• Simon: “[Pros] view these two teams as equals ... I just have such a higher grade on this Bucs team ... it's too tempting.” (09:03)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Cardinals +6.5

• Segment: "Brass Balls Bet of the Week"
• Reasoning: Line value against a Seattle team getting love in public metrics; Jacoby Brissett expected to exploit Seattle’s soft middle.
• Simon: “We think this division, NFC West, all these divisional games will be close … we’re banking on it here.” (11:08)
• Chad: “Defensive line for the Cardinals has been getting much, much better ... they are not the kind of team that ... has let games get away from them.” (12:24)

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Pick: (Debate)

• Key Segment: "Rock in a Hard Place Bet of the Week"
• Line movement: 3.5 up to 6.
• Injury angle: Mac Jones named SF starter, Purdy questionable; hosts debate whether to stick with a now-bad contest number.
• Simon: “We would be taking them in a bad line. Our contest, unfortunately, it is three and a half.” (28:30)
• Chad: “I was surprised by [the line move] because I thought this was already a Mac Jones line... I expected Mac Jones to be starting.” (15:22)

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Pick: Dolphins +9.5

• Debate: Chad hesitant; Simon pushes for it despite negative angles, citing line value and historical trends with Tua as a dog.
• Simon: “It's what we do. It's a long-term winner. We know the data backs it up ... I just love this line so much.” (17:05)

New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears

Pick: (Considered, not in final five)

• Analysis: Weather and injury impacts; Bears offense vs. Giants poor run defense; debate whether conditions will favor Giants to keep close.
• Simon: “As much hate as we like to give Caleb, he is good at pushing the ball down the field ... you guys just have so many weapons.” (20:17)
• Chad: “This is shaping up to be the kind of game where the expectation is ... two teams trying to run the ball a lot.” (19:52)

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Final Pick Decision: Eagles +2.5 (Contest number)

• Debate: Hosts consider picking 49ers but realize contest line is stale; pivot to Eagles, noting injury returns and getting best of number in contest.
• Simon: “We could be taking the Philly Eagles here at a good number and that number is moving ... So that's tough, to ... take a good one here in the Eagles.” (29:13)
• Chad: “We’re doing the Eagles because we’re getting a much better number in the contest… I can’t believe 2 minutes ago I did not see us putting the Eagles in.” (31:43)

Final Five Bets for Contest

1. Baltimore Ravens -3.5
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
3. Arizona Cardinals +6.5
4. Miami Dolphins +9.5
5. Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (contest line—actual market line was moving lower)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On emotional hedging (Chad):
  “I’m going to be rooting against myself and you're going to be rooting against yourself.” (30:00)
• On live betting angst (Chad):
  “I might have to put a fucking paperclip in my, you know, coaxial cable line ... I don't even know if I'll be able to watch the game.” (32:31)
• On betting ugly dogs (Simon):
  “Could we easily get rolled here by 40 points, Chad? Yes. That's life. Betting these ugly gross dogs.” (17:05)
• On Gus Johnson’s broadcasting (Simon):
  “He also does these like Non sequiturs that are just hilarious to me. He'd be like, this guy was homeless, eating trash just nine months ago.” (05:09–05:29)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Start | End | |------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|--------| | Podcast main show starts: College football banter | 03:42 | 06:11 | | Ravens vs. Vikings discussion | 06:38 | 07:59 | | Patriots vs. Bucs discussion | 08:41 | 10:18 | | Cardinals vs. Seahawks discussion (“Brass Balls Bet”) | 10:18 | 12:24 | | Rams vs. 49ers injury/line debate (“Rock in a Hard Place Bet”) | 13:28 | 16:28 | | Bills vs. Dolphins debate | 16:28 | 18:44 | | Giants vs. Bears weather/side debate (NOT in final five) | 18:44 | 21:00 | | Final five contest lineup decision | 28:05 | 31:43 |

Conclusion

Chad and Simon provided a full transparency view into their handicapping and contest strategy, wrestling with line moves, injury updates, and “public vs. sharp” positions. The final five reflects both conviction bets (Ravens, Bucs) and sharp (sometimes uncomfortable) line grabs (Cards, Dolphins, Eagles). The show is a blend of actionable advice and relatable, sometimes hilarious, betting agony—perfect for football and betting enthusiasts alike.