← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL Week 10 Bets: Eagles-Packers, Giants-Bears, Patriots-Bucs, Bills-Dolphins, Rams-49ers and more
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
PayPal Sponsor
This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app.
- [00:37]
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- [00:50]
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- [01:49]
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- [02:23]
Total Wireless Sponsor
This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. When you're streaming the fight or sharing those Takedown highlights. You need a wireless provider that keeps you close to the action. With Total Wireless, you're covered by the Verizon 5G network, so you don't have to worry about your connection being knocked out at the biggest moments. It's not something you can usually say about a wireless provider, but Total Wireless really does have your back. They're in your corner every second of the day, so you never miss a thing. Visit totalwireless.com or visit your local Total Wireless store to learn more about how Total Wireless can be in your corner. 5G access requires a 5G capable device and a 5G service area. Additional terms apply. See website for details.
- [03:14]
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- [03:42]
Chad Millman
That'S odoo.com welcome to Sharp or Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.
- [04:05]
Simon Hunter
How we doing, my brother?
- [04:07]
Chad Millman
I am rocking the Indiana University hoodie today because, man, my alma mater did all of us proud. We had our first ever Indiana football Gus Johnson moment. It was brilliant. It was ecstatic. It was glorious. I cannot believe it actually happened. Heisman doza mania is real. This is what it's like to be a college football fan, my friend. To have graduated from a college football school.
- [04:38]
Simon Hunter
Mendoza in trouble. It's out. That's down a rock. Unbelievable. It was incredible game I had. Penn State didn't want to text you beforehand and letting you know, hey, this might be a trap spot for your team. I was glad I didn't because I did. Halftime, you guys were up 10 and lamenta. Felt like it was going your way, but it's. It's always funny watching these games. Is it Gus Johnson, the guy's name that calls the games?
- [05:09]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah, that's. Yeah.
- [05:10]
Simon Hunter
He cracks me up because he is this. I mean everyone knows he's the. He goes insane and goes crazy. He also does these like Non sequiturs that are just hilarious to me. He'd be like, this guy was homeless, eating trash just nine months ago. He is now has an interception in this game. What an amazing story. What a proud parent his parents must be. And it's like, so.
- [05:29]
Chad Millman
And then. And then it's third and two and it's like.
- [05:32]
Simon Hunter
It's like the most insane thing. These little.
- [05:34]
Chad Millman
I. I watched the clips of Gus Johnson again and again and again and again because he literally lost his breath. He. It was. It was so wonderful. As an Indiana football fan, you didn't need to tell me it was a trap game. My Indiana text chain. The last comment from, like, a group of 13 people from one of my buddies who went to IU with me was like, I'm not liking the metrics here. I don't like the way this looks. And I didn't want to say to him, it's gonna be okay. And then I'm glad I didn't because it got ugly there for a second. But then, you know, we Hoosiered. That's what we do.
- [06:10]
Simon Hunter
Hoosier.
- [06:11]
Chad Millman
I. You. This is the strip down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We're going to make some final picks. Going to make our final five. Now that some injuries have been reported, lines have moved, you know, quickly. We debated the Broncos heavily. Fortunately, we did not put them in. I thought we were going to go there. You thought we were going to go there. We had a quick conversation. We decided it was not the way to go. So we got a full slate of 5. We got a pick. Are you ready, my brother?
- [06:38]
Simon Hunter
Yes, sir.
- [06:39]
Chad Millman
All right, so Minnesota, Baltimore. We've been talking about this one back and forth, back and forth on the show and, like, felt like the number was getting too high, and now it's come back down to three and a half and it's three and a half everywhere we'd want to play it. That's super hard not to be tempted by Baltimore at minus three and a half. And even. Even though I know the wise guys are chirping about Minnesota and it's kind of moved in Minnesota's way the last 24 hours.
- [07:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, this will be our biggest public bet of the week. No doubt. Both love the Ravens. Can't believe it's come back down to where it is. Maybe we're missing something here. Right. With this Ravens defense and their problems aren't fixed and this is going to be a good match over koc, But I just. You're betting on. I Feel like you're betting on lightning to strike twice if you're back in JJ McCarthy, this Vikings team after last week in lines and we see these things happen in football time, right? The, these professionals lock on the teams that go on these little runs and they get in these little streaks and I think that's what they're looking for here with JJ joining back this Vikings team and maybe getting a little role here. We're. I think we're in sync. On the flip side, it just feels like this is a great spot for this Ravens team. The line doesn't make sense. We're getting great value on it at four and a half. I think we both were avoiding this one, but now minus three and a half, it's just too good to pass on that opportunity.
- [08:00]
Chad Millman
Lamar against the blitz against the blitz against the blintz. It's not Sunday morning at the deli. Lamar against the blitz has been brilliant the past couple years. Best in football and in his limited time this year, absolutely beyond brilliant. So I like the matchup, all the.
- [08:20]
Simon Hunter
Matchups, like even diving into it, like all the numbers. It's great run. I just like the floor is the name the defensive game. Floors is going to need here and the coaching that KFC's need. Offensively they're going to need to be perfect. That's what we're fading them being perfect here where it's. It's gonna be the most public side we're gonna be on this week. No doubt.
- [08:41]
Chad Millman
Great. Baltimore minus three and a half. That is in New England at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay. Dude, this was Chad's choice. I cannot believe it's still sitting at two and a half. It. It frustrates me to no end. The more I think about this game, the more I feel like the Bucks are the side here. I know you're with me.
- [09:03]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm with you. Tons of pushback this week about this line for us. The pros are obviously on the other side. They love the Patriots, all of them catching points here. They actually view these two teams as equals, which is shocking to me. I just have such a higher grade on this book. So yeah, we, we could be missing it here maybe what their view is that the Bucks will come out slow. This is a bad spot for them coming out of the bye week against a new one team that's just been a well oiled machine these last couple weeks. Right. Even when they play bad, they're still squeaking out wins. So I guess the pro C. Hey, really good competitive, variable team here. Catch it two and a half points. We should, we should take it. But I think we're aligned. It's like this Bucks team, the veterans they are, they're easily going to make this a one sided game. They're going to make Drake may beat them. Right. We already know Vita Veg taking away that run game, it's going to be the number one priority here. So our biggest question is do we get Baker after you know, two, three weeks, did he get his body right? And that's what we, we're betting into the unknown year. That's probably the only fear for me is we just don't know the full health of Baker and we know he was banged up heading into this. He just did not look right two games heading into the spy week. So under a field goal, like you said, it's, it's, it's too tempting not to pass this one. So yeah, two favorites for us this week, Ravens. Bucks love them both.
- [10:18]
Chad Millman
Well, look also Ramondre Stevenson is out, K Sean Booty is out and Booty's been Drake Mays down the field security blanket even more than Stefan Diggs for this Patriots offense going deep, deep downfield. So we'll see how much of an impact that has on the game and the Patriots as well. All right, our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock bet was the Arizona Cardinals at +6 and/2 at Seattle. We're still in it. We're still in this game. There are actually sevens, even some seven and a halfs out there on Arizona. I would recommend you take those. We're both going to be on Arizona here. We like the Cardinals plus six and a half in this spot at Seattle.
- [11:09]
Simon Hunter
And like we keep saying, sharpest book Hard Rock only book right now with the minus six and or plus six and a half for the Cardinals in Jersey. Every other book is seven. Like Chad said, there's one book out there still seven and a half but they're going out of business so they're trying to get as much money as they can at this point. It's interesting though, like we talked about, I, I thought this would be seven, seven and a half once it was Jacoby Brissette. Just because it's a love affair with the Seahawks team. This whole week it's just been like I joke to Chad there, people are loving the DVOA score of this Seahawks team. They're the highest rated team in like 10 years or 20 years in the top five. It's, it's just all love for this team and people are gonna see a theme here. We think this division, NFC west, all these divisional games will be close. It just feels like that's gonna be the pattern for the season. And we're banking out of here. We're taking a dog here in a matchup that, you know, defensively, this is actually a great matchup scheme wise for this Seahawks team. So I'm really excited to see if Jacoby Brissette can keep doing what he's been doing, which is really attacking the middle of the field. That's the Seahawks biggest weakness. They don't have many defensive. That is a weakness for them in their secondary. You can attack the middle of the field. So reset. Come on, buddy, don't fail us here. Big, big bet on him this week. At six and a half, there is.
- [12:25]
Chad Millman
One fear is that the. The Cardinals secondary is still pretty depleted. They're missing a couple of key players and that's a real opportunity for Sam Darnold, who's just been lighting teams up and taking advantage of weaknesses defensively. But the flip side is the defensive line for the Cardinals has been getting much, much better. And they have been a physical team that has been keeping games close all year long. So that's another reason why they're we're on the Cardinals side is they are not the kind of team that so far this year has let games get away from them, especially with Jacoby Brissette playing quarterback now and sort of entrenched as the starter on that team. All right. Los Angeles Rams at the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are now six point underdogs at Hard Rock bet. The San Francisco 49ers are going to be our rock in a hard place. Hard Rock bet of the week.
- [13:28]
Simon Hunter
I want to rock.
- [13:34]
Chad Millman
I've been informed by our producer Matt Mitchell that our Hard Rock rocking a hard place bet of the week has won six straight this game. Simon. It's gone from three and a half to four to four and a half to five to five and a half to six. We're. We're betting on the. The team that the line is going away from where we would like it to be going to show how good we think this number is because six scares me. The fact that so much money is coming in on the Rams.
- [14:10]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, because it is about looking at the matchups. Right. When you, when you're really breaking it down for this Rams team defensively, you expect them to be able to get after Mac Jones. This should be a really good matchup for the front. They're really Good against the run, which. That's another thing. If they can take that away, that's a huge deal. And offensively, Stafford's playing at MVP level. So I. I get why professionals in the public are coming in on this Rams team. I mean, we talked earlier in the week. I couldn't believe where it opened at three, but I said at three and a half, that's when you start making a 49ers feels true right now. I don't know if you saw the news. Mac Jones was named the start of this week and Brock Purdy was questionable.
- [14:50]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [14:50]
Simon Hunter
You want to eat some crow chat or no? You are so sure of yourself and just ripping me for my Mac Jones take, which again, isn't my take. I was getting from other people. I don't want to believe a Mac Jones, but my God, I couldn't. When as soon as I saw. I go, my God, don't text Chad. Save it for the show.
- [15:09]
Chad Millman
It's so fun. It's so funny you say that because I did see the news. And by the way, the number moved off of the Mac Jones announcement. I couldn't find any other reason for the number to move. Like it moved literally that second.
- [15:22]
Simon Hunter
That's right.
- [15:23]
Chad Millman
And I was surprised by it because I thought this was already a Mac Jones line. Like, to me, I saw the news and I thought of you and I was like, but this isn't really news to me. Like, I expected Mac Jones to be starting. I think they've said this injury with Purdy has been lingering. To me, I'm still seeing it at face value. You're seeing it as a Kyler Murray situation, which is different to me than Brock Purdy is all of a sudden going to be on the bench because they'd rather play. Be playing Mac Jones.
- [15:51]
Simon Hunter
I just threw the tenant full hat on because I thought this was a possibility and people told me it. I was shocked that Shanahan just put it out there so nonchalantly that, like, they're both practicing. Purdy's questionable. Regardless. The starter is Mac Jones this week. But it's also. It could be like we always say, the. The hens to the wolves. Right. They're just. Rather than putting Purdy out in a horrible spot.
- [16:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [16:14]
Simon Hunter
And him getting demolished, maybe let Mac Jones go out there look terrible. So now you don't have to question the team. Can't question you now. Giving the job back to Purdy. And yeah. Again, we have a. We'll come back around. We go to our final five. I have another opinion on this game.
- [16:29]
Chad Millman
Oh, interesting. All right. Buffalo at Miami. Dude, this one's moving down a little bit. It's nine and a half in a lot of places, but it's nine at Hard Rock. Bet. You've been trying to convince me on this game all week. I know Miami is the right side. I'll be honest. I still have not bet it. I have like I just. I've. Every single day I go and I look at the lines and I go to bet this game and I cannot get my thumb to press accept on the button when I finally have to make a decision.
- [17:05]
Simon Hunter
I hate it too. But it's what we do. It's a long term winner. We know the data backs it up when you dive into the matchups. It's a good matchup and I think we just both have the same fear where we just do not like this Miami team. We don't trust this Miami team. We don't trust to were worried they've simply quit on this team in the season and they are just terrible in every out. So I, I get why you're scared. And we haven't even mentioned it. Their whole secondary is like injured as well and they just gave away their number one pass rusher, Miami. So there's a lot to be negative here. But it's again all about trusting the line. It's just a big, big number and Josh Allen tends to not cover them, especially in a letdown spot after such an emotional game the previous week. But could we easily get rolled here by 40 points? Chad? Yes. That's. That's life. Betting these ugly gross dogs. I've come to terms with it, but I just love this line so much and like you said, it's luckily moving with us. So if this got to 10, I would be honestly scared because that would be mean. That would mean there's a lot of professional love on this Bills team. Luckily this is a couple books in Jersey have already moved to eight and a half. So this seems like this is really a pros versus Joe's line which I thought it would be. It a long term feels like we're on the right side here. I know that scares you with contest plays because you're trying to just live for this week, but I just love this, this spot for Miami. We just seen time and time again TUA on these homesteads. He bounces back and I gave you that crazy stat and I know it's a small sample in his career on the second back to back game after a loss when he's underdog once again, 30 straight up, 3 and 30 against the spread. So don't know if he's going to win this one, but I think they keep it close and that backdoor opportunity is always going to be there against this suspect Bills defense.
- [18:45]
Chad Millman
All right, so I, I'm having a hard time finding a fifth, to be honest. We also talked a little bit about the Giants and the Bears. That game had gotten up to four and a half. Giants plus four and a half at Chicago. It's going to be clear for the game. Snow right now, but it's supposed to clear up for the game. It's going to be very cold, 34 degrees. It's going to feel much colder because winds are going to be 15 miles an hour. And this is shaping up to be the kind of game where the expectation is it's going to be two teams trying to run the ball a lot. And obviously the Bears rush offense has been so good, amongst the best in the NFL and the Giants rush defense is literally the worst in the NFL. So that's what worries me. But the Bears defense is so bad that I do think Jackson Dart will find opportunities to keep this game close. I can't get this one out of my head. Like the weather is not going to be something that I think scares us. In fact, it could just play to an advantage for both teams and not making stupid mistakes through the year.
- [19:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you're right. And I talked, you know, I think on Thursday show just to take a position on the under. I believe it was 47 or 46 and a half at that point. And you said it's come down now it's up, it's down to 45 and a half. So still some value there in my opinion if those wins are going to be what it is. And my biggest issue with the Giants is their secondary has their own rash of injuries. Another secondary I couldn't afford to have a ton of injuries.
- [20:18]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [20:18]
Simon Hunter
And as much hate as we like to give Caleb, he is good at pushing the ball down the field and like when he plays within the offense, you have a coach that schemes it up that the first read is usually wide open. Whether it be your tight end streaking down the middle or room of dunes or you know, DJ more like. There's you guys just have so many weapons. I mean it's why you're a top five top ten offense right now. So I, I get where you're coming from. I, if this was no bad weather, I honestly would be on the Giants here. I would take a position on, but I just can't get there. And you're on the side of the professionals. I'm kind of on the side of the public area. I'm, I'm liking the Bears.
- [20:54]
Chad Millman
All right, let's, let's take a quick word from Hard Rock, and then we got a make our final five decision here. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're not sure what to place your first bet on, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie, and neither does the data in there. Here's one that stood out to me. Green Bay's Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games against NFC opponents. Check out the Stats Hub now. Get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida. And it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states, too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what yout've Got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 18 in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem? Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia.
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- [23:59]
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- [24:33]
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- [25:45]
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- [26:26]
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This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc, so when you're streaming the fight or sharing those takedown highlights, you need a wireless provider that keeps you close to the action. With Total Wireless, you're covered by the Verizon 5G network, so you don't have to worry about your connection being knocked out at the biggest moments. It's not something you can usually say about a wireless provider, but Total Wireless really has your back. They're in your corner every second of the day, so you never miss a thing. They keep you covered for just $25 a month with four lines without sacrificing the essentials like speed. With Total, you get unlimited 5G data so you can stay ahead of the action and keep up with every knockout. Total Wireless understands you can't afford surprise blows any more than your favorite fighter can. That's why the price is guaranteed for five years, taxes and fees included. The best fighters don't make it to the Octagon alone. They have all in support along the way, and it shouldn't be any different for you. So visit totalwireless.com or visit your local Total Wireless store to learn more about how Total Wireless can be in your corner. 5G access requires a 5G capable device and a 5G service area. Monthly rate on the Total Base 5G Unlimited plan for new subscribers applies only to the monthly rate for your plan. Additional terms apply. See website for details.
- [28:05]
Chad Millman
All right, so we know we like Baltimore minus three and a half. We know we like the Bucks minus two and a half. We know we like Arizona plus six and a half. I'm leaving it up to you with Miami plus Nine and a half. So that's four in. So what did you want to say about San Francisco? That's going to make me feel uncomfortable.
- [28:30]
Simon Hunter
So we would be taking them in a bad line. Our contest, unfortunately it is three and a half. So that's, that's a tough one. We already on very, two very public sides in the Bucks and the Ravens. Even though after last week I swore we wouldn't be on super public sides again. At least we don't have the Lions. And even though I do love the lion spot, there's one more very public dog we haven't talked about and that is the Eagles. The Eagles, which we both have been on Green Bay. We like it as a Green Bay spot. We like to match for Green Bay. But it does matter. Injuries do matter. No Tucker Craft, a couple injuries to their defense. Golden is a game time decision.
- [29:11]
Chad Millman
A.J. brown is playing for the Eagles.
- [29:14]
Simon Hunter
Phillips, a big ass that they just traded for Brandon Graham. Like they got a bunch of guys back to that defensive line. Nolan Smith, you said A.J. brown's back. Saquon's fully healthy. The only guy that's missing is her center, which again hasn't been that big of a deal. The guy that's replaced him has actually played pretty well. It's an interesting spot. Like, we Both like the 49ers. We like the number, but it's a bad number where we could be taking the Philly Eagles here at a good number and that number is moving to one one and a half or minus a half now on the Eagles. So that's, that's, that's tough to. In a week. We're taking a lot of bad lines. We could take a good one here in the Eagles or are we, are we doing. Are we sucking ourselves in here, taking these three chalky, chalky lines? We know they're chalk.
- [30:01]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Look, this is why the show is so hard, like on a Sunday morning in real time, trying to make this decision right now. When it's against. I'm on the packers at minus two and a half. Like I gotta. I got a bad line on the packers, so. And I didn't buy out of it. So I'm going to be rooting against myself and you're going to be rooting against yourself. And we know we're getting the better line with the Eagles and we know it's probably the rational thing to do versus just wanting it to be the Niners.
- [30:35]
Simon Hunter
I know we're dug in here on the Niners. That's my, that's what I'm trying to ward us off. Like, last week I didn't ward us off enough, and this week I'm trying.
- [30:42]
Chad Millman
To do it, so. But what does that mean?
- [30:46]
Simon Hunter
What?
- [30:46]
Chad Millman
Us off? Is that like. All right, here's the warning.
- [30:48]
Simon Hunter
We're on the 49ers. No problem. We're telling people to take them five and a half and get to six. But is it really smart of us to put him in a three and a half in this contest?
- [30:56]
Chad Millman
No. It's stupid, right?
- [30:58]
Simon Hunter
So that's what I'm saying. I'm trying to protect us from that. And even if it hits again, good, we've all won money, we've all taken the 49ers year. I'm just trying to play devil's advocate that the Eagles, that's a good number. And when we talked about them, I didn't think AJ we back. I thought they would have injuries and, you know, getting guys back like Dolan Smith and trading for a guy like Phillips, that's a huge upgrade. We've seen the line reflect that. Despite it being such a pro spot for Green Bay, the lines moved a point and a half, two points. So, again, I just wanted to bring that one up because I'm not here to for. I'm not trying to force the Lions in. If I'm going to force a game in, even though I'm against it, betting wise, I guess it's the Eagles.
- [31:39]
Chad Millman
All right, let's do the Eagles.
- [31:41]
Simon Hunter
Doing the Eagles.
- [31:43]
Chad Millman
We're doing the Eagles because we're getting a much better number in the contest. That's really what we're talking about here. So the final five. Jesus, I can't believe that's such a shock to me. I can't believe 2 minutes ago I did not see us putting the Eagles in. Baltimore, minus three and a half bucks, minus two and a half. Arizona, six and a half. Miami, nine and a half. It's on you, brother. Philadelphia plus two and a half. That's on Monday night. So we're going to have to torture ourselves and wait for Monday Night Football. I don't even know if I'll be able to watch the game. It might take me 85 tries and four different passwords and God knows how I'm going to be able to watch this game on espn. But we're gonna have to figure out a way. I might have to.
- [32:30]
Simon Hunter
You have to watch your iPad. NFL.
- [32:32]
Chad Millman
I'm gonna have to put a fucking paperclip in my, you know, coaxial cable line or whatever. All right. That's where we're at. This has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight at 11 or at 11 at 7:30 Eastern. We're gonna recap all the misery and glory of the day. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download from Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate Review Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift until tonight. Love you.
- [33:04]
Simon Hunter
Hey.
- [33:06]
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- [35:25]
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