The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square — FINAL NFL Week 11 Bets: Seahawks-Rams, Bucs-Bills, Lions-Eagles, Ravens-Browns, Cowboys-Raiders & More

Date: November 16, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

In this week’s “Sharp or Square,” hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down their final NFL Week 11 betting picks, revealing how late week line movement, injury updates, and the latest sharp/public betting splits have colored their five favorite contest plays. The episode is all about practical, actionable gambling advice—transparently discussing which sides are sharp, which bets make them nervous, and how to sniff out the real value in a tricky NFL slate. “This is the stripped down, in-the-room, eavesdropping version,” Chad laughs, as they finalize selections for their betting contest and debate the most controversial picks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers [+5.5]

Timestamp: 04:36–06:46

• Line Analysis:
  • Hard Rock Bet line is 5, but consensus is 5.5; Chad is surprised the line hasn't moved down given money coming in on Cincinnati.
• Reasoning:
  • Neither defense impresses this year; Bengals’ offense should thrive against a struggling Steelers’ secondary.
  • Both agree they're “betting against the Steelers defense” and trusting Bengals’ weapons.
  • Simon admits, “I never understood this number all week. Like I always say that the books aren't giving us extra free points, but feels like in this game they are.” (05:03)
• Concerns:
  • Both feel wary; aware it could be a “backdoor cover” situation.
  • Weather (wind) could be a factor but may add volatility that helps the dog.

2. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans [Texans -5.5]

Timestamp: 06:46–07:37

• Line Movement:
  • Opened at 7.5, dropped to 5.5 despite public money on Houston.
• Host Sentiment:
  • Both puzzled by movement toward Tennessee, but ultimately back Houston.
  • Simon: “There’s something here I’m missing because clearly, the books and professionals have taken a stand on this Tennessee team.” (06:46)
• Logic:
  • Titans’ offense appears incapable of exploiting Houston’s defense.
  • “Even Davis Mills against this defense has a better chance to me than Cam Ward against the Texans defense.” — Chad (07:37)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

Timestamp: 09:32–10:45

• Market Dynamics:
  • Line moved from 5.5 to 6 (even 6.5 at some books).
  • Chad hasn’t bet it, “I want to be on the Bucs. Maybe I’ll just wait and see if it gets to six and a half.”
• Baker Mayfield Uncertainty:
  • Simon: “Something we’re missing on the Baker injury. I ended up not taking a big position.”
• Not a Contest Play:
  • Both hesitating; not confident enough to play it big this week.

4. Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams [-3]

Timestamp: 10:45–13:02

• The “Brass Balls Bet” of the Week:
  • Both back the Rams, even as Stafford becomes a media darling.
  • Simon: “It’s our biggest public play of the week. But I think you gotta stick to what we love. We love this matchup for them.” (11:48)
• Public vs. Sharps:
  • More public and sharp support for the Rams than expected.
  • Noting heavy resistance when line moved above 3; important to get the best number (prefer 2.5 or 3).
• Line Discipline:
  • “We love them at three. Even better, we get a two and a half in our contest.” — Simon (13:02)

5. Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns [+8]

Timestamp: 13:02–16:18

• Home/Road Splits:
  • Chad highlights Browns’ defense at home (20 points per game vs. 30 on road; stronger run and pass defense at home).
• Why Take Cleveland:
  • Size of the number and home field advantage outweigh ugly quarterback play.
  • Simon: “We’re just trying to play the number situationally. Doesn’t feel like it’s a great spot for the Ravens.” (14:09)
• Health Watch:
  • Question marks in Browns’ running back group; crucial for covering the spread.

6. Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles [-2.5]

Timestamp: 16:18–20:11

• “Rock in a Hard Place Bet” of the Week:
  • Eagles are slight home favorites; Chad feels Detroit is the public dog of the week.
  • Chad: “This is exactly functional for the Eagles. This is just how they operate.” (20:11)
• Injury Impact:
  • Detroit’s defensive injuries could make a big difference; Simon expects this to be a “get right” spot for Hurts, especially with favorable weather.
• Betting Psychology:
  • Both shocked the number hasn’t hit 3; suggest professionals coming in on Philly.

7. Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders [+3.5]

Timestamp: 20:11–22:36

• Monday Night Football Dilemma:
  • Simon liked the Raiders with the hook (+3.5), wary about Dallas overestimation due to returning defensive players.
• Offensive Matchup:
  • “This is the exact spot you bounce back after extended rest of that Denver team against a putrid Dallas team that just cannot stop the run, can't stop passes up the seam and that's literally all the Raiders want to do.” — Simon (21:43)
• Contest Reluctance:
  • Chad is hesitant, considering alternative dogs.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Professional Betting Frustration:
  • “There’s certain games I’m just missing and I’m over-reading. There’s things I’m not looking at right. And this must be one of those.” — Simon (06:46)
• On Betting Into Market Movement:
  • “I feel like if there’s something holding me back, there’s no reason for me to pull the trigger because I get antsy on Sunday.” — Chad (10:45)
• On Contest Play Realities:
  • “I just do not believe in. To be favored in.” — Simon (32:45, referencing Carolina as live underdogs)
• Wry self-awareness about betting NFL underdogs:
  • “Life and you’re betting really bad quarterbacks with bad teams. But like we say all the time, we’re just trying to play the number.” — Simon (14:09)
• On the Eagles’ Style:
  • “I don’t think the Eagles are dysfunctional. I think this is exactly functional for the Eagles. This is just how they operate.” — Chad (20:11)

Final Five Consensus Plays for The Contest

(Timestamp: 28:39–35:22)

1. Cincinnati Bengals +5.5
2. Los Angeles Rams -2.5
   (Bet at up to -3 as available)
3. Cleveland Browns +8.5
4. Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
   (Bet at up to -2.5 as available)
5. Carolina Panthers +3.5
   (Preferred over Raiders after debate)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening and Context: 04:44–05:03
• Bengals vs. Steelers Breakdown: 04:36–06:46
• Texans vs. Titans Deep Dive: 06:46–07:37
• Buccaneers-Bills Confusion: 09:32–10:45
• Seahawks-Rams (Brass Balls Bet): 10:45–13:02
• Ravens-Browns (Home Dog Logic): 13:02–16:18
• Lions-Eagles Public/Sharp Reads: 16:18–20:11
• Cowboys-Raiders (Monday Sweats): 20:11–22:36
• Contest Picks and Summary: 28:39–35:22

Language & Tone

• Direct and self-deprecating: Chad and Simon regularly acknowledge their nerves, uncertainties, and the absurdities of NFL betting (“I’m not here to force in Denver…” “We’re both kind of grossed out by those dogs…”).
• Conversational and collaborative: Most decisions are made through dialogue and constant rechecking (“If you feel that strongly about the Raiders, we can go with it… I have no opinion on it…”).
• Sharp-focused: Clear explanations for why the sharps or public love a side, how line movement matters, and admissions when they’re “missing something.”

Takeaways for Listeners

• The hosts are transparent about both their process and indecision, providing a realistic look into what real bettors face each week.
• Identifying sharp-vs-square sides, line value, and contest strategy are more important than “hot takes” or calling winners.
• Weather, injuries, market movement, and contest numbers all matter—a bet at +3.5 is not the same as +2.5.
• Listener participation is encouraged: “Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.” (35:22)

Summary Table: Final Five Picks

| Game | Bet | Contest Line | Logic / Comment | |---------------------|----------------------|--------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Bengals @ Steelers | Bengals +5.5 | +5.5 | Bengals' O vs. weak Steelers D; line value | | Rams vs Seahawks | Rams -2.5/-3 | -2.5 | Best matchup; both sharp and public support | | Browns vs Ravens | Browns +8.5 | +8.5 | Big home/road split; home dog with value | | Eagles vs Lions | Eagles -1.5/-2.5 | -1.5 | Market stubbornly at 2.5; Lions public dog | | Panthers vs Falcons | Panthers +3.5 | +3.5 | Faded Raiders; prefer Panthers as live ugly dog |

For listeners who missed the show:
The episode is a masterclass in NFL betting psychology, walking you through the “why” on every side (including the nerves), with practical advice on timing, line value, and contest strategy—plus a healthy dose of humor and humility.