The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL WEEK 12 BETS"

Date: November 23, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter (Volume Podcast Network)

Episode Overview

This week's episode of "Sharp or Square" is a deep-dive into Week 12 NFL bets, where betting pros Chad Millman and Simon Hunter collaborate on their contest picks. The show’s signature is eavesdropping-style, letting listeners hear their real-time thought processes, second-guessing, and sharp-vs-square logic. Their conversation focuses on key matchups including Eagles-Cowboys, Steelers-Bears, Vikings-Packers, Browns-Raiders, Bucs-Rams, and more.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Philosophy & Approach to the Week

• Reluctance with Big Favorites: Early on, Chad and Simon stress that they're cautious about high spreads:
  "We don't like betting such big numbers like this. So if we're gonna put one big number favorite in there, I think you know where I'm gonna go..." (05:20)

• Emphasis on Line Movement: The hosts pay close attention to where professional money is moving the lines, often betting in anticipation or in reaction to these moves.

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown

a) Seattle Seahawks (-13) at Tennessee Titans

• Both Lean Seahawks but Hesitant: They like Seattle, yet acknowledge pros are coming in on the Titans, especially with line movement dropping from -13 to as low as -11.5 at some books.
• Why Not the Titans?
  Simon: "This is the best team that the Titans have played in the past few weeks... I still like the Seahawks here."
• Final Take: Prefer not to force it; will consider for side bets, but not for contest pick due to the big number.

b) New York Giants at Detroit Lions

• Love Detroit, Hated the Confusion Over Giants QBs: They've been on Detroit all week as the line swelled.
  Chad: “It never made sense to me... You’re really betting heavy into [Jackson] Dart coming off a head injury...”
• Key Angle: Jameis Winston at QB doesn't scare them off, and Detroit's offense far outclasses the undermanned Giants.
• Betting Advice: Play the Lions if you can grab the number before it climbs too high.

c) New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5 / +8.5 in contest)

• Sharp Play on Bengals (with Joe Flacco): Despite defensive woes and the uncertainty at QB, Simon calls this their "rock in a hard place" bet.
• Analysis:
  Chad: “Cincy's defense is atrocious. If Flacco throws a pick six, we're probably going to be burned... But this is actually a really good matchup for Cincinnati. Offensively, it's just all about can Joe Flacco keep up with this scoring race?” (10:14)
• Noted Trend: New England winning eight straight, making them "due" for a letdown.
• Final Decision: Bengals stay as one of the contest picks.

d) Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)

• Chad's Choice: Strong love for the Cardinals, especially with Jacoby Brissett at QB, regardless of star WR Marvin Harrison Jr.’s absence.
• Key Reasoning: Arizona’s offense is quietly effective, and Jags’ record overstates their capabilities.
• Memorable Moment:
  Simon: "Liam Cohen is trying to diminish the impact Trevor Lawrence can have on this game."

e) Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

• Brass Balls Bet: Simon terms this pick as betting against Atlanta (and Kirk Cousins) more than betting on the Saints. Both worry about Saints QB Tyler Shuck’s NFL readiness but believe it’s mitigated by Atlanta’s loss of Drake London.
• Interesting Observation:
  Chad: “Drake London, who accounts for something like 40% of the team's passing yards... I just—I can't get behind this Atlanta team." (14:43)
• Line Movement: Late pro money is on the Falcons, but both agree on the Saints if they’re forced to pick.

f) Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5 / +3)

• Pros Love Dallas: Heavy "smart money" on the Cowboys; injuries (notably Lane Johnson and potentially Devonta Smith) are huge negatives for the Eagles.
• Style Clash: distrust of the Eagles' offense, and the Cowboys’ offensive matchups line up well against Philly’s weaknesses.
• Notable Quotes:
  Simon: “There’s something terribly wrong with this Eagles offense… I just think it’s totally dysfunctional right now on this Eagles side…” (19:57)
• Contest Lock-in: Cowboys make the cut for the contest, especially at +3.5.

g) Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) [vs. Chiefs]

• Debate Over Last Spot: Both like the Colts more than Saints for their road underdog upside, especially with returning defensive players.
  Chad: “...it’s a huge matchup... Jonathan Taylor’s gonna get his, I think, run wise, he'll be able to get his against a Chiefs defense...” (21:29)
• Final Pick: Colts round out the top five.

3. Five Favorite Contest Picks (Finalized)

At multiple points, they debate and finalize, going with road teams and trusting the numbers over their gut:

1. Colts +3.5
2. Dallas +3 (+3.5 in contest)
3. Arizona +2.5
4. Cincinnati +7.5 (+8.5 in contest)
5. Detroit -10.5 (try for -12.5 if you can find it)

“The final five will be Colts plus three and a half. Dallas plus three and a half in the contest, but we still love him at three. The Cards plus two and a half. Cincy’s at seven and a half, but they're eight and a half in the contest. We like them at both numbers and Detroit. They're at ten and a half in the contest. If you can find the twelve and a half for Detroit, you still want to get the twelve and a half.” — Simon Hunter (27:08)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Contemplating Risks & Regret:
  Chad: “We are human. We make decisions we regret. I have no doubt that will happen today.” (04:09)
• On Betting All Home Teams:
  Chad: “It just doesn't look right to have all five of our picks be home teams. I know it sounds stupid, but these little things, these little quirks on my Chad saves us...” (25:57)
• Stat Watch:
  Simon: “Does it scare you at all that in the Hard Rock BET Stats hub, Kansas City has won 15 in a row as a home favorite?”
  Chad: “Not really. All right, again, they can win the game. I just. We need to cover brother.” (33:49)
• About Public vs. Pro Money:
  Chad: “The pros keep betting doing, they keep getting burned and they keep saying, well, no, it’s this week. So I'm not gonna let the professional money scare me off.” (21:29)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Seattle-Tennessee Analysis: [04:37]–[06:32]
• Giants-Lions Deep Dive: [06:32]–[08:44]
• Patriots-Bengals Discussion: [08:44]–[11:32]
• Cardinals-Jaguars Debate: [12:31]–[14:00]
• Falcons-Saints (Brass Balls Bet): [14:00]–[16:15]
• Eagles-Cowboys Critical Insights: [16:15]–[20:14]
• Colts as Fifth Pick – the Debate: [20:41]–[27:08]
• Final Five Confirmed: [27:08], [34:09]

Summary Flow & Takeaways

• Natural Conversation & Betting Candor: Chad and Simon’s banter lays bare the real pressure and fun in professional betting, revealing not just the "what" but the "why" behind each bet.
• Behind-the-Scenes of Contest Picking: Listeners pick up key learnings about line shopping, injury impact, and trusting instincts over betting trends.
• Actionable Consensus: The show's structure leaves listeners with clear, actionable picks for the week and a deeper understanding of sharp-vs-square logic in NFL betting.

Final Recommendations

• Contest Picks: Colts, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bengals, Lions.
• Shop for the Best Number: Always check line movement before betting, as key numbers (3, 7, 10) are critically important.
• Fade Public Narratives: Don’t get swayed by headlines or recent betting trends if the math and insight tell a different story.

Chad’s closing remark: “We gotta put something together. Back to back. Let's go.” (35:14)

For casual and serious bettors alike, this episode is a masterclass in decision-making under pressure—every line, every lean, every regret dissected in real time.