The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square – Final NFL Week 13 Bets

Date: November 30, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This episode of Sharper Square, recorded post-Thanksgiving, hones in on the sharpest and “squarish” NFL Week 13 sides and totals, focusing on bets, contest picks, and the lines the hosts think public and professional bettors are targeting. Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down significant injury news, market line movements, and offer candid, in-the-weeds handicapping for key games, culminating in their contest “final five” picks and recommended Moneyline parlays.
Tone: Confident, energetic, betting-savvy, occasionally self-deprecating.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Colts vs. Texans: Injury News & Market Shifts

• Big Story: Daniel Jones playing potentially on a fractured fibula.
• Line Move: Texans from +4.5 to +3 underdogs.
• Contesting Dilemma:
  • “You’re telling me I gotta back a quarterback playing on a potentially broken leg…” (Simon, 05:53)
  • Simon dislikes trusting a wounded Daniel Jones and favors Houston but highlights that Houston has become a very “public dog.”
  • Betting Angle: If you can get Houston at +4.5, play it; otherwise, probably a pass as the value has evaporated.
  • Chad: Small buy on Texans +3, cites love for their defense and worries about Jones’ diminished mobility.

2. 49ers at Browns: Myles Garrett Impact & the Weather Angle

• Chad’s Pick: Browns +5.5
• Market Observations:
  • He loved Browns at 6.5 and continues to bet into them; sees value even as weather worries abate.
  • “He has 14 sacks in the last five games…” (Chad, 08:03)
• Simon: Points out market movement was driven by weather predictions, now correcting; still likes Browns due to defensive matchup and 49ers’ injury issues.

3. Falcons at Jets: Brass Balls Play

• Bravado Bet: Jets +3 (now +2.5 in contest).
• Chad: “Rah rah. Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets.” (11:05)
• Simon: Likes the pick but admits Jets aren’t in his top five, citing need for “every point” with the Jets in close games. Prefers best possible number.

4. Jaguars at Titans: Respecting Sharp Money

• Line: Titans +6 (down from +6.5).
• Simon: Titans are a “very sharp side” due to increased backdoor covers and pro money.
  • “This is either Tennessee or nothing at all for either of us.” (Simon, 14:05)
• Chad: Notes the Titans’ frequent backdoor covers were as much luck as market underestimation; expresses skepticism Jags are respected by pros.

5. Vikings at Seahawks: Quarterback Unknowns

• Line: Vikings +12 at Seattle.
• Simon: Discomfort backing unknown QB Max Brosmer, no strong opinion, only sees Flores’ defense as an angle.
  • “If you’re making this bet… this is a Brian Flores bet.” (Simon, 16:36)

6. Bills at Steelers: Injuries Rule the Market

• Line: Steelers +3 (was +3.5); heavy public betting on Bills.
• Simon: Despite missing the best number, still likes Steelers (pro money on PIT).
  • “This is the definition of pros versus Joes.” (Simon, 20:14)
  • Market “split”: 70–80% of tickets on Bills, ~80% of money on Steelers.

7. Giants at Patriots: Hard Rock Bet of the Week

• Line: Giants +7.5 (Monday Night Football).
• Chad: Heavily invested at +7.5, sees edge due to Patriots’ O-line injuries and Giants’ new aggressive DC.
• Simon: “The pros have been over the Giants all season even though they’re not winning, right? 2-10, but they've been a covering machine.” (22:11)
  • Cites “luck rankings” and expects Giants’ bad luck to turn.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Daniel Jones’ Injury (“Colts vs. Texans”):
  • Simon Hunter (05:53): “You’re telling me I have to back a quarterback playing on potentially a broken leg… That’s a big weapon of his game. So I hate this. Feel so bad for this Colts team.”
• On Browns’ Defensive Edge:
  • Chad Millman (08:03): “Myles Garrett, I think, has 14 sacks in like the last five games. Something crazy like that. I’m not even exaggerating.”
• On Pros vs. Public in Bills-Steelers:
  • Simon Hunter (20:14): “This is the definition of pros vs. Joes. 70–80% of tickets on Bills, 70–80% of the money on the Pittsburgh Steelers.”
• On Giants’ ATS Value:
  • Simon Hunter (22:11): “The pros have been over the Giants all season even though they’re not winning, right? 2–10, but they've been a covering machine.”
• On betting week fatigue:
  • Simon Hunter (31:10): “I woke up today and I was like, ‘Oh my God, it’s still Sunday… It’s still week 13.’”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Start of true content, banter and intro: 03:09
• Colts-Texans breakdown: 05:15–07:29
• 49ers-Browns discussion: 07:29–10:36
• Falcons-Jets “brass balls” play: 10:36–12:24
• Jags-Titans sharp call discussion: 12:34–15:17
• Vikings-Seahawks longshot angle: 16:00–17:29
• Bills-Steelers pros vs. Joes: 17:29–21:00
• Giants-Patriots “Hard Rock Bet of the Week”: 21:00–24:57
• Biggest bets recap and Moneyline dog parlay ideas: 30:42–33:37
• Final five contest picks reveal: 34:50–36:20

Final Contest Picks & Moneyline Parlays

Final Five ATS Picks

(Note: Lines reflect their contest; may be different in markets)

• Giants +7.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (contest)
• Cleveland Browns +5.5
• Houston Texans +4.5 (contest)
• New York Jets +2.5

Rationale is strongest on key numbers/value, often leaning into pro-vs-public disparities and injury mismatches.

Moneyline Dog Parlay Suggestions

• Pittsburgh
• Cleveland
• Jets
• Houston
• Tennessee
  (Chad notes more dog sides he likes than favorites this week; Simon also notes heavy betting on these dogs)

Favorites for ML Parlay

• Seattle
• Chargers
• Miami
• Tampa Bay
  (Rams noted, but with caveats due to Carolina’s injuries/bad spot for Panthers)

Overall Tone & Takeaways

• Public Sides to Fade: Jags, Bills
• Sharps Backing: Giants, Browns, Steelers, Titans
• General Approach: Leaning hard on the underdogs, market inefficiencies, and sharp-vs-square analysis.
• Vibe: Both hosts are transparent about their discomfort, highlight key injury and weather news, and reinforce contest strategy logic for the "final five" picks.

For Those Who Missed the Episode

This episode provides not only a meticulous look at where pro and public betting diverge, but also strong opinions backed by recent news, team trends, and market context. It’s loaded with practical contest advice, warnings about chasing steam after line moves, and candid debate on injury impacts—making it highly actionable for contest and recreational NFL bettors alike.