The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 14 BETS

Date: December 7, 2025

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This "Sharp or Square" episode, hosted by Chad Millman with professional bettor Simon Hunter, dissects final NFL Week 14 bets, centering on which games to target and avoid in both betting contests and personal plays. Using a back-and-forth, conversational style, Chad and Simon provide sharp professional perspectives, contest tactics, contest line analysis, and weather and injury-related angles for each significant matchup. They highlight where public perception and professional betting diverge, guiding listeners on identifying sharp opportunities in a crowded slate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Tangent: Indiana’s Ascendancy

• Chad and Simon open with Chad’s emotional reflection on Indiana football’s unlikely success—a rare, sentimental moment that sets a casual, relatable tone.

  • Chad Millman (03:22): “To see this team that has been so historically bad...that there is a generation of people right now who are going to grow up thinking Indiana football is an exciting thing to experience...it’s insanity to me.”

• Simon attributes such turnarounds to NIL, the transfer portal, and hiring proven coaches.

  • Simon Hunter (05:00): “You get the right coach with the right NIL money...anything is possible in college football.”

Transition:

Chad quickly redirects: “But it’s not what we’re talking about today, Simon...” (06:14)

2. Contest Logistics

• First Sunday with the new “Pick 'Em” contest; everyone has equal lines.
• Chad: “Because that’s who we are. Are you ready, my BFF, my brother, to get into it for today, Sunday, week 14?” (07:15)

3. Game-Breakdowns and Betting Angles

a. Colts at Jaguars

• Leaning Jags but Weather Cautions:
  • Chad: Likes Jacksonville on the moneyline due to Colts’ defensive injuries, but worries about weather and Trevor Lawrence’s history in rain (07:41).
  • Simon: Agrees but expresses discomfort betting Lawrence in bad weather, referencing a previous fumble-heavy game (08:06).

Notable quote:
“If it’s going to be one of our five, we kind of want it to be perfect scenario...this kind of gives us the out here.” — Simon Hunter (08:06)

b. Browns vs. Titans

• On Browns -3.5; Defense-Driven:
  • Chad: Line moving towards Cleveland, with professional and public money aligning on the Browns (09:55).
  • Simon: Purely a defensive play for Cleveland; questions how often they’ve failed against the Titans, but sees this as a strong spot (09:58).

Notable quote:
“If we believe in it, Chad, we’re simply betting a good number...and we’re banking on this defense in this weather at home, it just feels like a unique spot.” — Simon Hunter (11:15)

• Consensus: Locking in Browns -3.5 as a contest pick (12:05).

c. Dolphins at Jets

• Sharp Play: Jets +2.5.
  • Chad: All in on the Jets, questioning why the line is the same as Week 4 despite changes (12:47).
  • Simon: Weather neutralizes some advantages, but professional money is on the Jets while public chases Miami; praises Tyrod Taylor’s performance against the spread (13:18-14:52).

Notable quote:
“It’s a pros, pros game. It’s truly all...pro money on the Jets.” — Simon Hunter (13:49)

d. Saints at Buccaneers

• Dog of the Week: Saints +8.5
  • Chad: Came around to the Saints after Simon’s case; bets on spread and moneyline (15:11).
  • Simon: Saints routinely outperform expectations as road division dogs; references their 8-0 ATS run (16:08, 16:19, 16:17).
  • Both agree the previous blowout was misleading due to fluky plays (17:13).

Notable quote:
“These are the gross ugly dogs I like betting...” — Simon Hunter (16:19)

e. Texans at Chiefs

• Split Opinion: Houston +3.5
  • Chad: Snagged Texans at +4.5 due to the hook, citing KC’s injuries and Houston’s defense (18:30).
  • Simon: Sees suspicious line movement (despite injuries, line rising for KC), so prefers Chiefs and warns listeners to be wary (19:36-21:11).
  • Mutual: Not a strong enough consensus to be an official pick.

f. Other Considerations & Contest Calculations

• Atlanta Falcons: Sharps love Atlanta at +6.5, but Simon isn’t buying due to injuries (21:42).
• Bills at Bengals: Interest in Bengals at +6.5, with more confidence than Atlanta or others (22:09).
• Ravens at Steelers: Ravens are tempting but Pittsburgh’s historical underdog metrics scare them off (22:32).
• Rams at Cardinals: Despite a bad contest number (-9.5), the hosts opt for L.A., predicting a blowout (25:55-26:13).
• Bears at Packers: Discusses contrarian fishy line in favor of Packers, despite public money flowing for Chicago (24:18-25:29).

Memorable Exchange:
Chad [on his Bears shirt]: “Dad’s showing me his nipples, people." — (25:29)

4. Final Contest Picks Recap

Announced at (32:39) and restated near close (38:30):

Official Five Picks (as entered in contest):

• Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
• Cleveland Browns -3.5
• New York Jets +2.5
• New Orleans Saints +8.5
• LA Rams -9.5
  (38:30)

5. Bonus Segment: Soccer Futures

• Chad asks Simon about summer soccer tournament futures and group winners on Hard Rock Bet (33:07–38:30).
• Simon’s “group of death” pick is Norway (Group I, alongside France and Senegal), with Erling Haaland as star. See value at Norway +280 (to win group), and a longshot tournament play at 25-30/1.
• USA's group’s weak competition means plus odds (+120) to win Group D are valuable; pro estimates U.S. as a true -200 favorite.

Notable quote:
“For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity in the next 200 years to win this tournament just because at home for us.” — Simon Hunter (36:45)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “The Saints...are 8-0 against the spread as a division road dog the last few years...the public continues to undervalue this Saints team.” — Simon Hunter (16:17)
• “We cannot catch the falling knife on this [Titans] team. But we have a lot of rhythm with the Browns.” — Chad Millman (11:44)
• “It’s a pros, pros game. It’s truly all...pro money on the Jets.” — Simon Hunter (13:49)
• *“I root for champions”—Chad Millman on supporting both Bears and Indiana (25:37)
• *“These are the gross ugly dogs I like betting...”—Simon Hunter (16:19)
• *Comedic moment: Chad flashing his Bears shirt under his hoodie, Simon: “Dad’s showing me his nipples, people.” (25:29)
• Soccer analogies: “USA is in group D...plus 120 right now at Hard Rock. I talked to a pro. That makes us minus 200 in this group. That's how bad...that's just how easy our group is.” — Simon Hunter (36:40)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Indiana Football Reflection: 03:12 – 06:14
• Contest Opening & Logistics: 06:14 – 07:18
• Colts at Jaguars Discussion: 07:18 – 09:13
• Browns vs Titans Placement: 09:13 – 12:06
• Jets-Dolphins Analysis: 12:06 – 14:52
• Saints–Bucs “Rock and a Hard Place” Pick: 15:11 – 18:26
• Texans-Chiefs Discussion: 18:30 – 21:11
• Rams Final Inclusion: 25:55 – 26:13
• Full Picks Recap: 32:39, 38:30
• Soccer Futures and Group Analysis: 33:09 – 38:30

Tone & Style

• Conversational, self-deprecating, and honest: Both hosts are open about uncertainty, changing philosophies on contest lines, and why some bets (“gross ugly dogs”) may not feel good but hold value. The ribbing and BFF camaraderie lightens tense handicapping discussion.

• Sharp vs. Square Dynamic: Emphasizes where public sentiment may be wrong and seeks value by embracing professional, data-driven, and often unpopular angles.

Summary Table: Final Bets

| Game | Side | Contest Line | |-------------------------------|------------------|--------------| | Jacksonville @ Jacksonville | Jaguars | +2.5 | | Browns vs. Titans | Browns | -3.5 | | Dolphins @ Jets | Jets | +2.5 | | Saints @ Buccaneers | Saints | +8.5 | | Rams @ Cardinals | Rams | -9.5 |

For New Listeners

If you missed the episode:

• The heart of this week’s “Sharp or Square” is debate and analysis around which NFL Week 14 lines offer value in a national pick ‘em contest format, with an emphasis on where pro bettors are taking positions in contrast to public consensus.
• Emotional color and personal touches (from Indiana football to Bears hoodies) make the breakdown both informative and entertaining.
• Listeners gain insight into contest strategies, the value of contest line shopping, and how sharps handle late-breaking weather and injury news in their handicaps.
• Bonus international soccer futures content rounds out the show, giving cross-sport betting fans some early summer angles.