The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 15 BETS

Date: December 14, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square," a weekly segment on The Herd, features hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter breaking down their final NFL Week 15 betting picks for their contest, analyzing line movements, public and professional money, and, as always, wrestling with late-breaking injury news and line value. The primary focus is on picking the best five games for their contest entry, debating square vs. sharp sides, and navigating an especially chalk-heavy week. Chad and Simon provide their signature honest, sometimes comedic banter, actionable insight, and market analysis flavored by the challenges of a high-stakes NFL betting contest.

Note: Ad reads and non-content segments omitted for clarity.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Contest Strategy & the Importance of Line Value

[03:05–04:42]

• Chad frames the episode as a "stripped down, in-the-room eavesdropping version" where listeners can hear their final debates.
• Both stress the contest lines are "dynamic," so beating the market is crucial—lock in lines early when possible.

"If you look like some lines, it's always better to put your picks in early. I did. We got Kansas City minus four and a half. I think we love the luck factor here..." — Chad [03:32]

2. Game-by-Game Debates

A. Chargers at Chiefs

[03:48–06:25]

• Line Movement: Chiefs line soared from -3.5 to as high as -6 due to sharp (professional) action and injury/weather considerations.
• Both are aligned on Chiefs as the pick if locked in at favorable early-week numbers.
• Weather (frigid KC), "luck factors," and a battered Chargers O-line are key drivers.

"You can only, only overcome so much. So it'll be interesting to see how this Chargers team tries to take advantage of a Chief's banged up offensive line..." — Simon [05:17]

"If you were able to get in the Chiefs, that's a really nice spot to be in like we're in right now." — Simon [06:23]

B. Bills at Patriots (Rock and a Hard Place Game)

[06:25–09:31]

• Bills recently became 1-point favorites. Notably "Rock and a Hard Place" pick thanks to professional disagreement.
• Weather (snow/cold), injury status for the Patriots' line, and Josh Allen's clutch off-field planning (baby due in offseason) discussed.
• Simon emphasizes willingness to "pay and lose" with the Bills given New England's injuries.
• Patriots’ defense is deteriorating; Bills’ strength in controlling ground game is key.

"I'm happy to pay and lose money on the Bills, as simple as that. Like, I make number three. I get the public sentiment for this Patriots team..." — Simon [07:39]

"New England's rush defense has just been getting worse and worse as the season's gone on because of the injuries. And we know that the Bills, they're going to want to run the ball." — Chad [09:31]

C. Lions at Rams

[10:45–13:45]

• Line jumped from -4.5 to -6 for the Rams; Chad and Simon secured -5.5.
• Detroit’s secondary and O-line are both decimated by injury; Rams offense is humming, especially with Stafford motivated against his former team.
• Public money is heavily on Detroit, yet line moves in favor of Rams—telling for Simon.

"It's too many injuries to overcome now ... It's a lot to ask against the MVP who's in cruise control right now in Stafford playing against his former team." — Simon [12:04]

"Most bookmakers I've talked to, most books I've seen. It's been pretty heavy Detroit money... the number ... has gone from four and a half to five and a half now to six. So I'm confident Ram side._" — Simon [13:23]

D. Packers at Broncos

[13:45–17:14]

• Market movement is volatile: line fluctuated between Packers -2.5 and -1 due to pro money on Denver and potential Josh Jacobs absence.
• Chad confesses anxiety over having "the worst number" in the contest.
• Simon sees the Packers' defense as the best path to victory; Jordan Love’s ability against pressure and the Broncos’ limited pass rush depth examined.
• Both like the Packers if defense can contain Bo Nix, less so if it becomes a shootout.

"We're really heavily relying [on] this Green Bay's defense to show up ... the Packers have so many ways to attack them offensively..." — Simon [16:39]

"Jordan Love has just been great against pressure and we know that the Broncos don't necessarily need to bring blitz pressure...." — Chad [17:14]

E. Vikings at Cowboys (Looking for a Live Underdog)

[23:28–26:07]

• Minnesota is a 5.5-point underdog, line briefly touched +6.5; both agree number is inflated.
• Betting less on J.J. McCarthy (Vikings QB), more on the Vikings defense and O'Connell's ability to manufacture offense.
• Cowboys’ offense after losses is formidable, but their defense is "atrocious."
• Both note public and teaser money is overloaded on Dallas, making Minnesota a stingy contrarian dog with "moneyline sprinkle" potential.

"It's a tough week, honestly, for me with the dogs... The Cowboys, this feels a little inflated for what they're going to be facing here defensively..." — Simon [24:20]

"If you're a hater, a contrarian like I am, you have to throw a little on Minnesota's money line. I know it sounds crazy, but this is just going to be such a hammered game..." — Simon [25:38]

3. Other Honorable Mention Games

[26:07–30:57]

• Panthers at Saints: Carolina's surge for NFC South makes them tempting, line touching NO -3, but Simon has waning confidence. Saints are better on the road.
• Commanders at Giants: Simon feels Washington should be closer to a pick—Giants are "just so bad."
• Both hosts ultimately stick with Minnesota +5.5 as their fifth contest game, considering line value and which unit (Vikings defense) they can trust most.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Finalizing Picks:
  "I'm trying not to overthink it and keep like you said, we have good contest lines... The only bad number we have is Green Bay, but... I don't think the two and a half is going to affect us that much... The only one I really want to take out is honestly Minnesota and it's like these other dogs. It's no different. I'm not that much more confident [in] these other dogs either. So it's a weird week, honestly." — Simon [30:07]

• About Following the Market:
  "Most books, bookmakers I talked to, most books I've seen. It's been pretty heavy Detroit money and we always talk it's pretty noticeable when a ton of money is coming on one side, especially the dog. And the number... has gone from four and a half to five and a half now to six. So I'm confident ram side." — Simon [13:23]

• Chad’s Realist Contest Strategy:
  "Let's not overthink it. That's what we always do and then we make a mistake. So our official contest picks: Kansas City minus four and a half... Minnesota plus five and a half... Buffalo minus one and a half... the Rams minus five and a half... Green Bay minus two and a half. That's what we're running with today." — Chad [31:05]

Final Picks for the Contest

[31:05]

1. Chiefs -4.5
2. Vikings +5.5
3. Bills -1.5
4. Rams -5.5
5. Packers -2.5

Tone & Style Highlights

• The episode retains Chad and Simon’s "buddies talking shop" style—teasing, supportive banter, and genuine indecision on a tough NFL week.
• Simon’s “contrarian” ethos and willingness to “pay and lose” on his numbers stands out.
• Chad is methodical, confident in his early line grabs, and quick to admit anxieties about fading dogs or holding poor contest numbers.
• Both stay honest about market moves and admit where their contest entry is most vulnerable—Minnesota being the "least comfortable" pick.
• Light-hearted asides (e.g., “Josh Allen’s offseason baby timing”) and playful ribbing—especially about contest mistakes—add personality.

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:05] — Episode setup, contest background
• [03:48] — Chiefs vs Chargers breakdown
• [06:25] — Bills at Patriots (Rock and a Hard Place)
• [10:45] — Lions at Rams
• [13:45] — Packers at Broncos
• [23:28] — Vikings at Cowboys; underdogs discussion
• [26:07–28:45] — Saints, Panthers, and Commanders honorable mentions
• [30:57] — Final picks, closing thoughts, contest strategy

Useful Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode gives listeners an inside look at sharp contest betting: how professional and square money shapes the odds, what to make of late-week injury reports and big line moves, and where to find value even in a week full of favorites. There’s plenty here for sports bettors or NFL fans wanting to understand not just “who to pick,” but why bets are made and what the professional process sounds like, warts and all.

Memorable takeaway: In a week long on chalk, Chad and Simon still embrace the pressure, weigh market and injury info in real time, and ultimately decide not to “overthink”—settling on five sides that balance number value and realistic expectations.