The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL Week 2 Bets
Date: September 14, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Theme:
A deep-dive, behind-the-scenes discussion as professional sports bettors Chad Millman and Simon Hunter lock in their FINAL five NFL Week 2 ATS (Against The Spread) bets for their contest entry—an unfiltered, "you’re in the room" eavesdrop on how wise guys finalize their picks, break down line moves, injury news, and navigate the tension between sharp and square sides.
Main Episode Theme & Purpose
This episode provides listeners a candid look at how seasoned pro bettors approach their most important weekly decisions, blending sharp (professional) and square (public-leaning) perspectives. Chad and Simon discuss odds, injury reports, line movement, and market psychology, settling on their final five picks for NFL Week 2. For bettors and NFL fans alike, it's an educational masterclass in sports wagering process and mindsets.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Rams at Titans (+5.5)
Timestamps: [03:39] - [06:41]
- General Take: Fifth “brass balls” bet, confirmed despite O-line uncertainty.
- Injury Factor: Rams' O-line less depleted than feared (only left guard Avila out), which slightly increases risk but doesn't deter them.
- Market Read: Number is flat; 5.5 isn't the best but is acceptable (prefer 6+).
- Public vs. Sharp Money: Heavy public Rams action; pros leaning Titans.
- Football Logic: “I love Cam Ward. I love this matchup…Tennessee’s defense…Jeffrey Simmons, I don’t think it matters how many O-linemen are out, he’s that dominant.” – Simon Hunter [05:30]
- Concerns: “Scary spot taking the rookie here but I love this Tennessee team.” – Simon [06:02]
2. Bills at Jets (+6.5)
Timestamps: [07:54] - [12:17]
- General Take: Love Jets at +6.5, more even if it won't touch +7. “No fear on the Jets at six and a half.” – Chad Millman [09:03]
- Game Breakdown: Praise for Jets' Week 1 “incredible game” and offensive spark, despite the loss.
- Matchup Matrix: Bills in emotional letdown spot after dramatic late game; defensive concerns in the Buffalo secondary.
- Sharpest Pick Label: “This is definitely our sharpest pick, most likely.” – Simon [09:14]
- Stat Angle: “This Jets offense—Ravens lite. Mobile QB, outside zone, not same output as Ravens, but the run concept works vs. Bills, just like last week.” – Simon [09:43]
- Market Movement: Books moving toward +5.5 (public money on Bills, pros on Jets).
3. Giants at Cowboys (-5.5)
Timestamps: [12:20] - [18:26]
- General Take: Comfortable taking Dallas as a "good QB vs a bad QB at home on a dead number" spot.
- Injury News: Andrew Thomas (Giants OT) expected out—“That's key to the bet.” – Chad [13:46]
- Rostering Woes: Giants can't protect the quarterback/run consistently; Wondale Robinson hobbled.
- Professional Disagreement: “Pros came in on Giants every time it touched 6, but I just can’t buy into Russ (Wilson) and this Giants team two weeks in a row.” – Simon [16:42]
- Dak Strength: “Healthy Dak with confidence pushing the ball is a dying art, and that's the difference here.” – Simon [17:43]
- Possible Blind Spot Acknowledgment: “One of our blind spots is not playing favorites in our final five…good quarterback against a bad quarterback at home…that’s the ball game.” – Chad [16:26]
4. Eagles (-1.5) at Chiefs
Timestamps: [18:26] - [24:53]
- Changing Market: Early Eagles dog, flipped to a small favorite. Money beginning to come in on the Chiefs game-day morning.
- Debate: Simon justifies a “courageous” pick despite line movement—prefers losing with Hurts than with lesser QBs.
- Narrative Crush: “Everyone’s saying, ‘It’s Mahomes, you think he’s going 0-2?’ But that’s not this year’s Chiefs. The market is pricing it like November, but it’s September and they’re banged up.” – Simon [21:24]
- Sharp vs. Square: “This is our squares bet of the week for sure.” – Simon [23:19]
- Emotional Moment: “You sound like you are in agony right now talking about this.” – Chad [23:31]
- Value Emphasis: “I make the line two and a half. It's one. Crazy good value on Eagles.” – Simon [21:18]
5. Final Pick Deliberation: Colts (+2.5) at Broncos
Timestamps: [30:52] - [39:32]
- Other Games Considered: Seattle/Pittsburgh (number moved/bad value), Saints/49ers (backup + Shanahan factor), Bengals/Jags (market uncertainty).
- Colts-Broncos Rationale: Broncos were summer “hype team”; Colts impressive but potentially fluky Week 1. Indy’s secondary injuries a concern, but prefer number and spot for contest purposes.
- Final Decision: “If it’s between that and the Colts at 2.5, I’m going to take the Colts in our contest.” – Simon [39:04]
- Honest Admissions: Both nervous about overreacting to Colts’ Week 1, but confident in the spot compared to alternatives.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On Betting Against Mahomes:
“All you can think of is Mahomes Magic. There’s no other reason to take the Chiefs team.” – Simon Hunter [24:18] -
On Cowboys-Giants:
“One of our blind spots is not playing favorites in our final five…good quarterback against a bad quarterback at home—that’s the ball game.” – Chad Millman [16:26] -
On Blocking Out the Noise:
“Block out the noise. Let’s focus on us. That’s true, right? Like any healthy relationship, Simon. Focus on you and me.” – Chad Millman [07:54] -
On Market Movement/Sharp Sides:
“It’s still all public money right now on this Ram side, so feeling pretty good about this Tennessee.” – Simon Hunter [05:52] -
Simon’s Sleep-Deprived Admission:
“If it sounds like I’ve been awake for 36 hours and I went to a wedding in between that…it’s true. That is factual.” – Simon [06:50]
Final Five Picks (Contest Lines)
- Tennessee Titans +5.5
- Market overvalues Rams, defensive mismatch, good number for contest entry.
- New York Jets +6.5
- Sharpest side, mobile QB and run game against depleted Bills defense, pros backing Jets despite heavy Bills teasers.
- Dallas Cowboys -5.5
- Good QB, healthy roster at home; Giants missing key OL, offense sputtering.
- Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
- Market over-corrects toward Chiefs on Mahomes legacy; value on healthy Eagles squad.
- Indianapolis Colts +2.5
- Contest number and spot attractive; Denver overly hyped preseason, Colts’ Week 1 success legit enough to trust.
Survivor Pool Decision
- Primary Pick: Dallas Cowboys – “You come around. All right, well, the fans took a vote…they were on Dallas with us…” – Simon [40:15]
- Alternative Considered: Cardinals and Ravens were discussed, but hesitant to burn Ravens early.
Timestamps for Segment Reference
- [02:25] Show proper begins – context for this season's contest, philosophy
- [03:39] Rams-Titans bet discussion
- [07:54] Bills-Jets breakdown
- [12:20] Cowboys-Giants, quarterback and injury talk
- [18:26] Eagles-Chiefs deliberation
- [30:52] Removing Steelers-Seahawks, pivoting to Colts/Broncos
- [39:39] Final five confirmed
- [40:03] Survivor pick discussion
Tone & Language
Chad and Simon balance humor, self-deprecation, and actionable betting logic. They reveal their process transparently, debate each game in plain language, and cite industry sentiment, “wise guy” positions, and personal anxieties in real time. Listeners get the feel of experienced bettors working out the hardest parts of contest and real-money NFL betting, being honest about nerves, market uncertainty, and the agony/ecstasy of their business.
Summary Useful For: Anyone looking to understand sharp NFL betting dynamics, last-minute line shopping, and how professional bettors sift through noise vs. signal to land on their best contest entries—plus a peek at the human side of high-stakes gambling.