Podcast Summary: "Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL Week 4 Bets"
The Herd with Colin Cowherd – The Volume (September 28, 2025)
Episode Overview
This episode of "Sharp or Square," hosted by Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter, focuses on their final NFL Week 4 picks for their exclusive betting contest. They deliver an inside look at the thought process behind each selection, considering injury updates, line movement, and public versus professional sentiment. The goal is to help both "sharps" (professional gamblers) and "squares" (casual bettors) make more informed bets and avoid common pitfalls.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Chargers (-5.5) at Giants [03:10–05:56]
- Main Debate: Both hosts acknowledge the riskiness of backing a big road favorite, especially with the unproven Jackson Dart as the new Giants QB. Despite every professional bettor being on the Giants, Chad and Simon decide to stick with their initial read.
- Rationale:
- Chad: "It's so freaking chalky to be taking a big favorite... I still like him at six and a half. I've bet him at six and a half. I am not walking away from that." [03:38]
- Simon notes the lack of tape on Dart may benefit Giants offensively, but stands by the pick: "We're just playing the number here...If this was six and a half, I could probably talk us out of it. But a five and a half with that little bit of wiggle room, I can lie to myself and say at least we're getting a good number." [04:14]
- Memorable Quote:
- "Chalk does win. Hopefully on this, this is the right time we pick it." — Simon Hunter [05:41]
- Tension: Both express discomfort given how "square" this pick looks, emphasizing trust in their process over crowd sentiment.
2. Eagles at Buccaneers (+3.5) [05:56–08:59]
- Situation:
- Eagles are road favorites against an injury-riddled Bucs team, but the Bucs also have crucial players returning.
- Analysis:
- Simon: "I can't believe they're giving us the hook still...This is the Sharp side for sure. The square side is the Eagles, but the Sharps are on the Eagles as well." [06:54]
- Chad believes it's a solid spot to fade the Eagles, despite not "loving" the pick, and highlights important Tampa injury news: "I like that Tristan Wirfs...is back. Considering the other injuries on Tampa Bay. I like that Godwin is back considering Evans is out. I never worry about Baker and injuries because Baker just balls no matter what." [08:59]
- Matchup Note:
- Simon argues the Bucs match up well against the Eagles’ offense.
- Caution: Pick is more about market value and fades rather than pure conviction.
3. Browns at Lions (-9.5) [09:59–12:29]
- Context: Line movement from 8.5 to 10, landing at 9.5 in contest; some sharps on Cleveland.
- Confident Endorsement:
- Simon: "Love the Lions. Nothing's changed...Probably one of my bigger bets is this line side in this spot." [10:34]
- Chad: "I'm trying to figure out why I don't love it. I'm trying to talk myself out of it because it's a big number and it's chalky...It keeps moving in the Lions direction." [11:08]
- Analysis:
- Both agree Detroit’s health and home/turf setting are strong advantages, especially after observing what happened to the injured opponent (Packers) last week.
- Quote:
- "This is the most confident play we have so far of the three games we've talked about." — Chad Millman [11:08]
4. Rams (-3.5) vs. Colts [12:29–15:48]
- Situation: The line has not budged despite action, and the contest line is 3.5.
- Approach:
- Chad is hesitant due to contest line but agrees the matchup favors the Rams’ offense: "I will not lie. I have not bet the Rams yet. I'm still hoping as we get closer to kickoff, if I got to eat it and I miss the number and I get the four, I'll live with it." [12:29]
- Simon is more bullish: "This is just another team. I think they're being undervalued...I just think the Colts are overrated a little bit here, a little inflated on the line and that the Rams have the weapons to attack this team." [14:06]
- Concerns: Colts’ competitive grit and market sharpness, but confidence is slightly higher on the Rams than some alternatives.
5. Raiders (+1.5) vs. Bears [22:51–25:25]
- Why Considered: Market movement throughout the week presents solid line value in the contest.
- Matchup Belief:
- Simon: "It's really just about the matchup. Like, I just think there's many ways for this defense on the Raiders to attack. You know, Caleb Williams, that's really good when he has no pressure. When he does have pressure, he seems to struggle." [23:25]
- Contest Strategy:
- Locked-in line gives rare value; pick is bolstered by public’s overreaction to Bears’ previous win.
- "This is a good spot for this Raiders team. It's two bad teams and the public really believes in one bad team. And it's clear...It's all Bears money...I think we're starting to learn that's when you want to back this Bears team, not when they're coming off a huge win and everyone's blowing smoke up their ass for a week." — Simon [24:17]
- Quote:
- "If they lose this game...your season is officially over, Vegas.” — Simon Hunter [25:09]
Other Games Briefly Debated [19:39–22:51]
- 49ers (-3.5) vs. Jaguars: Both hosts have mild interest but less conviction than previous picks. Simon: “This is probably my least bet of all these four o' clock games.” [20:30]
- Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Ravens: Simon personally loves the Chiefs, citing model and pro consensus, but both hosts express some discomfort. “Unfortunately for me, this is probably going to be one of my three biggest bets of the week. I just, I really, really love this, this Chief side and this number.” — Simon [22:16]
- Survivor Pool: Both recommend Houston as the desperately needed “hold your nose” survivor pick: “Nothing's changed around Houston for Survivor people. I know. It's gross, it's risky, it's by far the riskiest pick you can make this week. But...we got to trust the situation.” — Simon [27:26]
Final Five Contest Picks (Summary) [26:32–27:26]
- Chargers -5.5 (now -6.5 in market)
- Buccaneers +3.5
- Lions -9.5
- Rams -3.5
- Raiders +1.5 (special contest line)
Quote:
“These are the contest lines. Chargers minus five and a half...Bucs plus three and a half...Lions minus nine and a half...Rams minus three and a half...Raiders plus one and a half. We're taking advantage of the contest that we play in...these are the final five.” — Chad Millman [26:33]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On embracing “chalk”:
- “Chalk does win. Hopefully on this, this is the right time we pick it.” — Simon, emphasizing it’s okay to take favored sides [05:41]
- On injury narratives:
- “I never worry about Baker and injuries because Baker just balls no matter what.” — Chad [08:59]
- On contest psychology:
- “These contests try to scare you off when these lines do flip like this..." — Simon, referencing the importance of not overreacting to late line swings and staying disciplined [23:25]
- On public versus professional action:
- “Every Pro I know is on the other side. And me and Chad know this...So try not to overthink it. Try to stay true to ourselves...” — Simon [04:14]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [03:10] – Chargers at Giants analysis
- [05:56] – Eagles at Bucs debate
- [09:59] – Browns at Lions pick
- [12:29] – Rams at Colts breakdown
- [22:51] – Raiders at Bears value play
- [26:33] – Final Five Picks Recap
- [27:26] – Survivor Pool Advice (Texans)
Tone and Style
- Conversational, candid, and self-aware: Hosts openly acknowledge nerves, biases, and the difficulty of certain decisions.
- Balanced approach: While relying on data and market intelligence, they also stress gut feel and experience—"trust the number," but don't blindly follow the crowd.
Conclusion
This episode gives listeners a real-time look into the minds of seasoned bettors making high-stakes NFL contest picks. Chad and Simon offer not just selected sides, but the nuance and second-guessing involved in professional sports betting—making it both educational and relatable, especially for those seeking to sharpen their own process.