The Herd with Colin Cowherd

"Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL Week 6 Bets"

October 12, 2025 | The Volume | Hosted by Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square," part of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, sees veteran betting analyst Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down their final NFL Week 6 picks for the contest. They dissect significant line movements, injury data, public vs. sharp action, and contest strategy, aiming to make listeners sharper bettors while teasing out where the wiseguys are planting their flags.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Evolving Lines & Injuries: Why Sunday Mornings Matter

• Chad and Simon stress the importance of late-week injury reports and drastic line moves that often alter their betting approach and contest selections.
• "I love that we're getting a chance to review and make decisions after we have full clarity of the entire field." – Chad Millman (02:01)

2. Cowboys at Panthers (+3.5 in contest)

• Consensus: Both prefer Carolina with the points due to line inflation, improving health, and underrated Bryce Young.
• Wise Guy Lean: Sharps on Carolina all week, but line holding at 3/3.5 due to public Cowboys love and perceived kicker edge for Dallas.
• Weather Factor: Potential for a low-scoring, wind-impacted game further justifies underdog appeal.
• Quote:
  "Try not to get hyper focused on the quarterbacks here... I think this is a number that's a little overvalued and at three and a half in the contest, I gotta take it, brother."
  – Simon Hunter (05:29)

3. Chargers at Dolphins (Chargers +3.5, but contest at -4.5)

• Movement: Moved against Chargers; public on LA but sharp money entering on Miami.
• Contest Strategy: Drop from favorites in final five due to poor contest value vs. current market.
• Quote:
  "If you want to take the Chargers three and a half, take the Chargers... I just don't like the value that we're getting in the contest."
  – Chad Millman (08:16)

4. Browns at Steelers (Steelers -4.5 in contest, market up to 6+)

• Advantage: Sticking with Pittsburgh due to rested squad and an excellent number versus market line.
• Rare Spot: Tomlin as a home favorite of more than 3—usually a fade, but not this week.
• Quote:
  "If you're terrified of it, I get it... you have to at least take the Steelers money line here."
  – Simon Hunter (09:25)

5. Lions at Chiefs (-1.5 in contest, market up to -2.5)

• Sharp vs Square: Public all over the Lions, but line not reaching 3—notable.
• Why Chiefs: Home field, Mahomes historical trends, Detroit's weak recent schedule, and injury concerns for Lions.
• Pro’s Joe’s Game: Classic divide between professional and recreational bettors.
• Quote:
  "We've been betting the Chiefs since it was at one and a half... This is a pros Joe's game. It's probably one of the most pros Joe's games on the board this week."
  – Chad Millman (10:55)
  "This is peak, peak, peak value for them [Lions] this season, I believe."
  – Simon Hunter (13:22)

6. Cardinals at Colts (Colts -6.5 in contest, current line -9.5)

• Why Indy: Early line grab before it ballooned due to Kyler Murray news. Trend: teams off three straight, close losses falter ATS and SU.
• Contest Edge: Enormous value with original contest line.
• Quote:
  "It's all about the number—six and a half, no brainer, gotta put in the contest."
  – Simon Hunter (21:27)

7. Final Spot Debates: Saints, Raiders, Bears

• Saints (-3.5) vs. Patriots:
  • Simon’s "Simon Says" pick, citing professional action on both sides but personal lean toward Saints.
  • Chad less convinced, prefers other options.
• Raiders (-4) vs. Titans:
  • Chad's "gross" bet of the week; line movement sharp but some pro money on Titans.
  • Simon reluctantly agrees, noting it's out of favor with his own approach but defers due to Chad’s conviction.
  • "The trends also point to it being, yes, technically a good spot for this Raiders team... but this Raiders team just seems dreadful in so many ways." – Simon Hunter (26:59)
• Bears (+4.5) at Commanders:
  • Both mystified by lack of line movement despite Chicago's improved health.
  • Red flag: market not budging makes them nervous to include.
  • "It's weird that this thing has not budged..." – Chad Millman (24:13)

8. Final Five Contest Picks

(all contest lines, not market)

• Carolina Panthers +3.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
• Indianapolis Colts -6.5
• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
• Las Vegas Raiders -4.5

Quote:
"Our final picks are Carolina plus three and a half, Steelers minus four and a half, Colts minus six and a half, Chiefs minus one and a half, Raiders minus four and a half. Don't forget all these contest lines. Sometimes they move. That's why we're taking them."
– Chad Millman (27:22)

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On Lions-Chiefs:
  "It is a pros Joe's game. It's probably one of the most pros Joe's games on the board this week for sure."
  – Chad Millman (10:55)

• Simon on Contest Strategy:
  "So right now, two very public plays. We're on Colts, Pittsburgh: both are very good numbers if we want to just go with the professional side. Carolina, Saints, Chiefs—that's basically where we're at with those; we're trusting the number, we're with the pros."
  – Simon Hunter (24:27)

• Colts' Value Snapshot:
  "If you did miss it, even though we talked why you should have taken on Thursday show... once the Schefter tweet came out that [Kyler] has a really high chance of missing, like Chad said, it shot all the way up to nine and a half."
  – Simon Hunter (20:04)

• On Red-Flag Games:
  "That really worries me. I'm not gonna lie, because, like, it just. This game never should have been four and a half. It should have been three."
  – Chad Millman (24:20)

Timestamps by Key Segment

• [03:28] Cowboys at Panthers Breakdown
• [06:45] Chargers at Dolphins Market Movement
• [08:17] Browns at Steelers: Tomlin as Favorite
• [10:31] Lions at Chiefs – Pros/Joe’s Breakdown
• [18:46] Colts at Cardinals: Grabbing Pre-Injury Value
• [21:27] Saints, Raiders, Bears: Last Spot Debate
• [27:22] Final Recap of Five Contest Picks

Conclusion

This episode offers sharp, actionable NFL contest betting advice. Chad and Simon’s dialogue balances public vs. professional sentiment, late injury intel, classic betting theory, and contest-specific tactics. The hosts' transparent debate and candid red-flag warnings make the episode especially valuable for both casual and competitive NFL bettors.

Final Five Picks (Contest Lines):

• Carolina Panthers +3.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
• Indianapolis Colts -6.5
• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
• Las Vegas Raiders -4.5

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