The Herd with Colin Cowherd — Sharper Square: FINAL NFL Week 7 Bets

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Date: October 19, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
Episode Theme:
An in-depth, no-frills analysis of the final NFL Week 7 bets: which “square” picks align with sharp betting, which lines offer value after injury info and line movement, and how to build the best five bets for contest and personal wagering. Expect honest self-doubt, sharp-vs-square talk, and a behind-the-scenes look at betting logic as Chad and Simon lock in their final card.

Episode Overview

Chad and Simon revisit their shortlist of NFL Week 7 games, factoring in late-breaking injury news, sharp-vs-public money, and dramatic line moves. Their goal: fill out the final five picks for the contest, analyzing whether prior confidence holds or last-minute nerves are justified. Expect candid discussion about betting psychology and plenty of real-time decision-making.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins

• Line: Browns -2.5
• Initial Lean: Both were confident early in the week due to Miami’s weak defense and doubts about Tua Tagovailoa’s play in poor weather.
• Concerns: Significant weather (40 mph gusts). Rookie QB for Browns a risk.
• Debate: Is it smart to bet on a rookie QB as a favorite in harsh conditions, even with a strong defense?

  "You want to bet a rookie as a favorite in 40 per mile, wind gust, potential rainstorm, not ideal… We're simply betting the Browns defense here, but we're going to need points." — Simon Hunter [04:06]

• Verdict: Reluctant but ultimately locked in for value and matchup.
• Notable Quote:

  "Historically, this has not been a good spot for TUA on the road in bad weather." — Simon Hunter [04:58]

2. Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

• Line: Vikings +2.5
• Early Week: Loved at +2.5 (contest line) when QB was uncertain; pros liked Wentz starting.
• Shifts: Key Eagles defenders likely to play (Carter, Mitchell), moving line down to 2.
• Handicap: Still like Vikings at +2.5 but less confident as injury news makes Eagles stronger.

  "We were about to have a huge advantage… it's not ideal. We were going to be in a really nice spot." — Simon Hunter [06:38]

• Decision: On short list, ultimately NOT in final 5.

3. Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

• Line: Chargers -1.5 (moved from -1)
• Reasoning: Chargers undervalued; Colts overvalued as a "public dog". Focus on LAC secondary vs Colts’ O-line issues.
• Confidence: High, despite LAC's O-line worries.

  "I just think the Chargers are undervalued against a Colts team that, how can we not sell this team? They've. They've been beating up on bad teams." — Simon Hunter [09:02]

• Matched Against Public:

  "I like being against the public in this game. I like fading a very public dog." — Chad Millman [11:04]

• Verdict: IN final five.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (Monday Night)

• Line: Lions -4.5 (now up to -6)
• Value: Early market move strongly in favor of Detroit; hosts have closing line value.
• Concerns: Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka injury returns for Bucs, and potential Bucs backdoor cover with Baker Mayfield.
• Sharp/Square Dynamics: Pros came in heavy on Detroit despite Bucs getting healthier.

  "This line movement… all it does is give me more confidence because there's pros on both sides. The pros that are really invested are coming in on Detroit rather than the books." — Simon Hunter [14:42]

• Verdict: IN final five due to line value and matchups.

5. Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (Monday Night)

• Line: Texans +3.5 (contest; market at 3)
• Rationale: Value in the “hook”; Seahawks shaky at home, Texans strong defensively and good schematic matchup.

  "We got the value in the Texans. We want to maintain that value… Going from 3.5 to 3 and getting the hook… is massive." — Chad Millman [17:09]

• Scheme Notes: Even with Seattle’s Witherspoon back, Houston offense matches up well.
• Confidence: Very high with the +3.5.
• Verdict: IN final five.

6. Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (Rock and a Hard Place Bet)

• Line: Cowboys +2.5 early, now -1 favorite (huge movement)
• Reason: Line flip due to injury news (no McLaurin, no Deebo Samuel for Washington; Diggs out for Dallas).

  "A big deal when your number one now has become Luke McCaffrey." — Simon Hunter [20:33]

• Scheme Concern: Dallas secondary bad, but also Washington depleted. Both hosts uneasy, agree pick is basically for the contest line value, not strong conviction.
• Final Decision: Not in final five, but strong consideration for value.

7. New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (“Big Balls Bet of the Week”)

• Line: Titans +7.5 (contest; market at 7)
• Handicap: Automatic play given the number. No need for a deep dive.

  "Yeah. Autoplay waiting for you to bring it up. There's not much to talk about here…Gotta be in one of our five." — Simon Hunter [22:13]

• Verdict: IN final five.

8. Other Considered Games

• Jets vs. [Opponent]: Both want to avoid.
• Bears vs. Saints: Discussed at length for line value (Bears +5.5 contest, down to +3.5 market), bad weather, and the Bears’ character test as a franchise.

  "Are the Bears a good team that can manage their emotions and come back from a stirring victory and beat a team that they're supposed to beat, or are they a team that is still up and down…?" — Chad Millman [23:48]

• Ultimately, both passed.

Final Five Bets (with contest lines)

1. Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
2. LA Chargers -1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
3. Tennessee Titans +7.5 vs. New England Patriots
4. Detroit Lions -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday Night)
5. Houston Texans +3.5 at Seattle Seahawks (Monday Night)

All lines are from the contest as of Sunday morning; actual market movement is discussed throughout.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Simon Hunter on Weather as a Wildcard:

  "You're not really betting into something that could be predicted here because of the randomness. That is highly, highly, highly windy games…" [05:03]

• Chad Millman on Betting Psychology:

  "I always feel like on Sunday mornings, I get up, I'm fresh as a daisy… and you are looking for the nearest way to collapse after God knows how many hours of being awake." [02:05]

• On the Public Trend:

  “It's got to come back around. The public has been getting killed.” — Simon Hunter [25:25]

• On Intuition vs. Data:

  "I like trusting on my early week picks because it's before I get all this in my head, all this noise from the weekend." — Simon Hunter [25:25]

• On Finalizing Picks:

  "Let's do it. I just feel so much better betting a good defense against a terrible Miami team and a two quarterback who doesn't travel." — Chad Millman [26:25]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:37 | “Strip down, in the room, eavesdropping” Sharper Square intro & approach | | 03:30–06:00 | Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins deep dive (weather, QB, confidence) | | 06:38–08:04 | Philly at Minnesota discussion | | 08:04–11:04 | Colts at Chargers in-depth breakdown | | 11:04–12:41 | Chargers public fade affirmation | | 12:41–15:11 | Tampa Bay at Detroit, unexpected injury news, line movement analysis | | 17:09–18:18 | Houston at Seattle, focusing on the "hook" | | 19:01–21:46 | Dallas at Washington, contest line value debate | | 21:46–22:21 | Tennessee “Big Balls bet” solidifying the card | | 22:29–23:48 | Bears vs. Saints line value and franchise “moment of truth” discussion | | 25:05–26:25 | Final five self-scout: Should they swap Dallas for Cleveland? | | 26:25–27:00 | Final five revealed |

Tone & Style

• Candid and conversational, filled with open uncertainties, real-time logic, and sharp-vs-square betting shop talk.
• Chad: Methodical, polling Simon, openly processing nerves and perceptions.
• Simon: Analytical, focused on contests, injury info, weather, and his own ‘early week read’ discipline.
• Plenty of friendly ribbing and “should we or shouldn’t we?” introspection for listeners to share their process.

Summary

This episode pulls back the curtain on “Sharps vs. Squares” NFL betting decisions in the crucial hours before Sunday kickoff. Chad and Simon offer listeners an honest, in-the-trenches look at how line moves, late injury news, and second-guessing shape final picks, ultimately producing a contest card heavy on early-closing line value and sharp side logic—even as nerves persist about possible traps. If you want to understand real-world betting psychology and what separates sharp from square, this is appointment listening.