← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Patriots-Titans, Bucs-Lions, Falcons-49ers, Texans-Seahawks, Raiders-Chiefs
00:26:06
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
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- [00:36]
Simon Hunter
Limu Emu and Doug.
- [00:39]
Liberty Mutual Narrator
Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.
- [00:54]
Doug
Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
- [00:57]
Liberty Mutual Narrator
Cut the camera. They see us.
- [00:58]
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Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. Liberty Savings. Very underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company affiliates. Excludes Massachusetts.
- [01:07]
Doug
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- [01:39]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock that we are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman and I'm joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:04]
Simon Hunter
Good morning, Chad.
- [02:06]
Chad Millman
Dude. I always feel like on Sunday mornings, I get up, I'm fresh as a daisy. I shower, I shave, I'm stretched, I'm ready to go. And you are looking for the nearest way to collapse after God knows how many hours of being awake.
- [02:23]
Simon Hunter
I know I don't want to. I don't want to complain too much because I'm sure people are sick of it. But yeah, this is. I like doing this because we honestly do this and I take a power nap after. So I'm like, this is the best. I'm very excited for the next hour because I get 30 minutes of sleep before heading down to Atlanta City and Oceans.
- [02:38]
Chad Millman
Well, let's get into it. This is the stripped down in the room. Eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going to try to nail down our final five picks now that we know about injuries of which there are many lineups have been set. Lines are moving. Simon. Here we go. These are the games that we zeroed in on the other day. Plus we're going to have to get to the Rock and the hard place. I think we got four we like. We're going to have to find one that we can throw in. First one up Miami Dolphins visiting the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are 2 1/2.3 favorites. Look, this line is. Is kind of stayed steady all week. I loved it early in the week. On Tuesday it was Chad's choice. I still loved it on Thursday even though I started to waver. You. You talked me off the ledge. It's inching towards three. I don't know, man. Like Joe Flacco lighting up the Steelers on on Thursday night just makes me realize how much more incompetent this Browns team is is and the management is than we even thought. But we still got to put it in. That's my take. Unless you feel like, oh my God, everything I'm here in the past 48 hours is walk away from this brownsteam because sometimes when we are so confident we end up having some blind spots.
- [04:07]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm. I'm honestly ashamed I didn't give up the under that was. That was a bad miss by me just because I love a good wind weather under especially weather is affected by the Great Lakes. It's like unique spots. They're saying it's not supposed to be as bad. That's my hesitation. Your chat is you want to bet a rookie as a favorite in 40 per mile, wind gust, potential rainstorm, not ideal. And you know, we can lie to ourselves and say we're simply betting the Browns defense here, but we're going to need points. We are going to need this rookie to make plays in this bad weather.
- [04:42]
Football Enthusiast
I'll tell you this. This is NFL football. I mean this is football in the. In the pits in the Midwest. This what it's all about. That's the worst thing. Those guards boxes up there and dome stadiums and stuff. We don't need that.
- [04:54]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [04:55]
Football Enthusiast
If you can't get out the elements, you shouldn't even go to the game.
- [04:58]
Simon Hunter
Historically, this has not been a good spot for TUA on the road in bad weather.
- [05:03]
Chad Millman
Terrible.
- [05:03]
Simon Hunter
Like I, I want to be on the Browns, but it's hard not to see you throw your model out the window there you're not really betting into something that could be predicted here because of the randomness. That is highly, highly, highly windy. Games like this is. They're saying there's gonna be 40 per hour wind gust in this matchup. So we can still do it. It's just you're throwing a huge variable here and it's. That's, that's the little bit of nerve wracking here where it's like I felt confidence because we had the defense. This is a great matchup for the Browns offense because this Miami defense is so bad. But we could, we could get unlucky with the weather here. This, that's my only fear with this one.
- [05:39]
Chad Millman
All right. Well, it sounds like we're both trying to talk ourselves out of this game and I don't know why. I don't know what's going on, but we haven't even talked since Thursday and we're both feeling the anxiety juju right now. So we're going to come back to it. We're going to put a pin in it. We don't know if it's going to make the final five yet. Philadelphia at Minnesota. Minnesota was plus two and a half. It's now down to two. We've been betting it at two and a half. This was your Simon says. Even when we didn't know who the quarterback was going to be, we were hoping it would be Carson Wentz. We got a little nervous when we heard it might be JJ McCarthy. It is Carson Wentz. That's, I think, why it has moved because professionals like the idea of Wentz more than jj. We're getting it at two and a half in the contest. We've been betting it at two and a half. I'm feeling pretty confident about this one right now.
- [06:39]
Simon Hunter
I'm still into it, but not as confident because the Eagles did get, unfortunately get cleared. A bunch of guys like Carter, I read this morning, probably gonna play Quinon, Mitchell, probably gonna play. That's. That is a big deal because we were about to have a huge advantage on that back end with this Vikings team. So I'm still on Minnesota, still bet into it. Like Chad said, a couple books have popped back to two and a half. Hard Rock is still sitting at the plus two. So you can shop around five. Minnesota plus two and a half. I'm still on it. If it makes it be one of our five, I'm okay with that. But yeah, it's, it's not ideal. We were going to be in a really nice spot. There was no Carter, no Quinine, Mitchell against this Vikings offense. But yeah, now it's, it's interesting spot. Like we talked about, it's going to be the biggest, one of the biggest public sides in Philadelphia. So we already know we're going to be on the side. The books need getting a decent number. The question is, are, are we, are we selling this Eagles team at their lowest point? And that's the fear here. But like I said, it's. You're looking at the splits right now. It is all Philly money. So pretty interesting that this number, like you said, a couple books hasn't budged. They're still, there's still a plus one and a half, minus one and a half on this Eagles team, even after all the news came out of them getting Carter back and Quinon Mitchell. So I like it still. But again, it's not going as perfectly as we were hoping it was going to go for us in this matchup.
- [08:04]
Chad Millman
All right, 0 for 2 on the games. We were dead set on Tuesday. Tuesday that we're now wavering on. On Sunday, Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Chargers. Another one we felt great about. And look, the line has moved in our direction. It took a while, but the money, professional money has finally come in on the Chargers. It was one and a half. Now it's too. Look, the offensive line issues for the Chargers, I think are so significant. We know we're sort of doing this because we think there has to be regression for Daniel Jones and we want to get ahead of that. We think the Colts are overvalued. That's what we're playing here. We're not playing that. We love the Chargers. I feel a little bit more confident that the line has moved in the Chargers direction because we know that the Colts are going to be the public dog this week.
- [09:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and that's, that's been interesting to watch. This line movement, like Chad said, it's shockingly moved towards us, which I thought was going to go the way I thought this was going to be one of the games I would flip because the public is just so in love with this cold steam. And not that it's lazy being like, well, they're the 5 and 1 team. Why are they the dog here? But I think it's the classic case of they don't look at the matchups they played, the teams they've beaten. We talked about, to me, the biggest advantage for the Chargers here is the secondary of this Colts team. Like they just got lit up by Burset and backups like he didn't Have Marvin Harris in that game. I'm looking at the, I'm looking at the injury report right here. They should have everyone I know Joe Alt might not play here, but Johnston should be back. He should have Ladd Keenan Allen and Johnston as his wide receivers. That's a huge deal for Herbert. So I don't know, is there a guy I'm missing on the Colts that can give us problems in the pass rush? Like, you know, they do have some guys with some sex here and they have been able to get pressure, but there is no Max Crosby type here. So I might, I might have a blind spot here. Might be too invested in this Chargers team and just, just overvaluing them in this matchup. But I've talked about, I just horrible losing four straight against the spread. I did go back and look Chad. It's never happened in his NFL professional career. This number being under three. I think it's a good number. Like, I just think the Chargers are undervalued against a cold steam that how can we not sell this team? They've. They've been beating up on bad teams. This is a well coached, good team. I know it's not a big name. He's an old man. But Khalil Mack is coming back as well. Those things do matter. Like that's another pass rush for this Chargers team against Daniel Jones, who we've seen the stats. He's incredible against the blitz. So we're going to need them to get pressure with four. I got to do it. I got. I got to stay on this Charger side so we can force this one in. I'm with it. Like I said, there's a lot of games. I really like this this week. They're minus one and a half in our contest yet. So we're getting a good number. It's a good matchup. I do like the Chargers.
- [11:05]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I don't think we're forcing it in. We got to find five. We've been on the Chargers all week in the contest. It's the best number. I'm feeling, I guess most comfortable about the Chargers given the injury status and the matchup. My biggest concern is the offensive line. It's a concern everywhere. But I like being against the public in this game. I like fade. I like fading. A very public dog. So right now the Chargers are in. We're still wavering on the Vikings and the Browns. The two Monday night games we were feeling very confident about all week and the numbers have moved aggressively in our direction. We are getting what they like. To say is closing line value right now. Let's talk about Tampa Bay and Detroit. Detroit is now a six point favorite in this game. We got him at four and a half. They are four and a half in the contest. This is after the news that Mike Evans is back for the Bucks after the news that Emeka Buka is likely to play for the Bucs. So what we are betting on here is Dan Campbell and Jared goff basically being 70% against the spread in this situation. You can name it. Coming off a loss, playing in a dome, playing at home, playing in prime time, you name it. This is a spot where you're back in this team. We're getting great line value. I have seen no reason to talk ourselves out of this game.
- [12:41]
Simon Hunter
I see a few. I, I was not expecting a Mecca Buka to be in this game. That's a huge deal when you're missing basically 2/3 of your secondary, like Detroit is against Baker here, that's not good. So I hate it. I can't believe he might actually play this game. This guy's supposed to have a hamstring injury, so, I mean, he's just a mega book as a freak. So I'm hoping they're just trying to scare us off and, you know, making Dan Campbell prepare for a guy that's not even going to play. That could just be what Tampa's doing here, right? A little game and ship, but yeah, I just. As soon as I heard he might play in this game, I'm just like, why did I make this my favorite bet on Thursday? And like, there's so many of the games I like this week. But like Chad said, I. I don't know how we avoid it. It's minus four and a half. I've bet heavily into this one. Not a four and a half, a five and a half. So, you know, you could say it's not that big of a deal. It's just a point. It's a. It's crossing key numbers. It is a big deal. You know, this might not be in our biggest public play of the week. It is. Everybody's just coming on Detroit with us, which I'm shocked by. I thought Tampa would be a really big public dog. You know, some books, they still are, right? Some books do need Detroit, but yeah, I'm. I'm shocked. This number has gone up to 6. Like Chad said, they. They gave up the info. These guys might play a couple books, jumped to six and a half. So it's you. It's very bizarre where the professionals Come in heavy on the lines even though they know a Mecca Buka might play. Mike Evans is definitely going to play. You know, I just expected people to love Baker at this back door. It's going the other way. Like you said, Detroit, it's, it's moving their direction. A bunch of books. A pop. Six and a half. There's one book out there still five and a half, so can't deny it. Like, I like it. I'm on it. I'm just. Again, we've been so well, I'm trying to see if I can avoid these traps we're walking into because we're going to step into a couple of them. It's just.
- [14:40]
Chad Millman
Here with the Chargers multiple times.
- [14:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So it's tough where it's like I'm trying to. I'm not trying to think myself, but it's like this, this line movement, all, all it does is give me more confidence because it's. There's pros on both sides. This one, the pros obviously that are really invested are coming in on Detroit rather than the books. Like the pros that are betting the books, they're just betting small amounts. The guys who like Detroit, they're coming in pretty heavy on this side, so I'll stay with it. Like you said, it's four and a half in the contest. We love line value. That's. That's a lot of line value right there.
- [15:12]
Chad Millman
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- [16:41]
Simon Hunter
Limu emu and Doug.
- [16:44]
Liberty Mutual Narrator
Here we have the limu emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.
- [16:58]
Doug
Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
- [17:01]
Liberty Mutual Narrator
Cut the camera. They see us.
- [17:03]
Liberty Mutual Ad Voice
Only pay for what you need@liberty mutual.com Liberty Liberty, Liberty. Liberty Savings Ferry Unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates.
- [17:10]
Chad Millman
Excludes Massachusetts, Houston at Seattle. Another one that has moved in the direction. I've loved it all week. I haven't really found a reason to walk away from it. The line is three and a half in the contest. We're getting a half point of value. I don't think it's going to. To me, you know, going from three and a half to three and getting the hook at three is as big as getting a point and a half in other scenarios. This, to me is massive. I think it's going to be a close game. The Seahawks have not been as good at home. The Texans have been off. The Seahawks just had a massive win on the road in which they lit up the Jags. This feels to me like we are. We got the value in the Texans. We want to maintain that value. Even though I won't be able to watch this game, which is probably better for me, I still feel like the Texans are the side and we can't talk ourselves out of it.
- [18:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, just a good game. I probably could find a way. But no, I'm just. It's. There's not. Not much to say. We're getting a great number, great defense, great matchup. Scheme wise. They match up well against the Seahawks team and you know, Witherspoon might be back for the Seahawks. That is a big deal. You know, they. You're going against a pastor that wants to push the ball downfield. That's. That's what C.J. likes to do. So, yeah, it's an interesting matchup. Like Chad said, it's all about the hook. We're getting three and a half. I probably would still take Houston, our contest, if it was three. That's that's how confident I am just in having that key number in this match above two teams that I think it's gonna be defensive battle. I mean, last time I looked, the total was like 40, so. Yep. Can't. Can't avoid it. Two Monday night games. Here we go.
- [19:02]
Chad Millman
I know. It's. It's gonna be brutal. All right. Our Rock in a hard place. Hard Rock better the week. I wanna rock the Washington Commanders at the Dallas Cowboys. I'm highlighting this basically because, again, people know we play in a contest. Those lines lock midweek in the contest. This line is Cowboys plus two and a half at Hard Rock. The Cowboys are currently one point favorites. So it is flipped. Three and a half points across zero. Cowboys from underdogs, two favorites. Part of that, I think, is because wise guy money has been coming in on the Cowboys all week. And now we've got confirmation from Yesterday. No Terry McLaurin, no Debo Samuel. Look, Matt Eberfluss is a terrible defensive coordinator who does not make adjustments, no matter who he's playing. And he plays a soft zone defense which plays to Jaden Daniels strengths. I just want to be devil's advocate here for a second about the scheme in the matchup, but from a numbers point of view, it's basically flipped. It's three and a half points according to Hard Rock, four points in other places. You like the Commanders all week. I. I feel like I need your take on this because the CLV is. Is extraordinary.
- [20:34]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I should listen to pros. Didn't. Didn't realize Debo was going to miss as well as Terry. That's just. I don't know. That has to be a big deal when your number one now has become Luke McCaffrey. Can't act like that doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. And sure, you know, Diggs hurt himself, so he won't be in this game as well. For Dallas, like, their secondary is just atrocious.
- [20:55]
Chad Millman
Doesn't matter. Like, you know, it doesn't matter who's playing that secondary. Their scheme is so bad. Like, who cares?
- [21:04]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. I think it does matter. But you've seen the total come down. Like, again, even though all the money is coming on the over, it's come down. I gave it out. I think it was 50, 55 and a half.
- [21:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [21:14]
Simon Hunter
Some books are down to 53 at this point. So, yeah, like you said, there's value on Dallas here. I'm in a weird spot where I haven't taken any position on we're strictly betting it because the line value and it being plus two and a half. So at the end of the day, that would have to be your call. I just, I don't have a read on it. We're simply playing it because it is a good number. And like we said, the professionals, that's the side they were on. I said that on Thursday. I believe that the pros were coming in on Dallas. They knew something and I just didn't have good info and I obviously missed that number.
- [21:47]
Chad Millman
All right, so right now we're locked in on Detroit, we're locked in on Houston, and we're locked in on the Chargers. The last game I want to raise. And then we got to find two games from. I think a choice of four is New England at Tennessee. This was our big balls bet of the week. The line is 7. Do we have enough balls to put it in the final five? It is seven and a half in the contest.
- [22:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Autoplay waiting for you to bring it up. There's not much to talk about here. You can go back, listen to our shows. Tennessee seven and a half. Got it. Gotta be in one of our five.
- [22:21]
Chad Millman
All right, so then that's great. We got four, is it? We got four.
- [22:30]
Simon Hunter
So let's talk about the games you're avoiding here. Jets plus one and a half. You know, you're supposed to bet it. I don't want to bet it either. So I'm okay if we avoid it.
- [22:39]
Chad Millman
But you're going to bring up the Bears and the Saints.
- [22:41]
Simon Hunter
You got to bring up the Bears and the Saints. Saints are plus five and a half. I mean, you can look at the live lines, I believe.
- [22:47]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's four and a half.
- [22:49]
Simon Hunter
Down to three and four.
- [22:50]
Chad Millman
Actually, there's some places it's three and a half.
- [22:52]
Simon Hunter
Just like Cleveland. It's a bad weather game. So could that benefit this Saints team that's an indoor team? And is Caleb gonna struggle in this weather worse than Spencer Rattler again? How does anyone know that? Like, there's just no. No predictive analysis with that one. But like me and Chad said earlier in the week, this was a Saints number, this was a Saint side. The Bears are not good enough to be a 5 1/2 point favorite over a Saints team that's just not that much worse than them. So I'm not checked for the line movement. I just thought it was really interesting that in our contest that they were plus five and a half. That talk about line value, they are down to three and a half. But it's Another game where it's like, you know, obviously if I'm betting it, I feel much more comfortable taking the dog, especially with bad weather in this matchup. But is it one of my five favorite bets? Chad?
- [23:46]
Chad Millman
I don't know.
- [23:47]
Simon Hunter
I just. I had to bring it up just because of the line movement.
- [23:49]
Chad Millman
No, no, I get it. And I, I saw it this morning, too, and I. I knew we were going to discuss it. My take on the Bears right now is this. This, to me, thinking about this as a Bears fan, may be one of the post most important games they've had probably in five years. And I'll tell you why this is the moment. Are the Bears a good team that can manage their emotions and come back from a stirring victory and beat a team that they're supposed to beat, or are they a team that is still up and down, good coaching, good talent, but undisciplined, still making mistakes that can't move on in a short week and. And really be a highly competitive, scrappy team? That. That's it. That's the narrative for this game. We don't know that yet. So how comfortable are we betting one side or the other? I'm not comfortable betting either. I think we're have. I think we're having a conversation right now about Cleveland, Minnesota and Dallas, and I still think it's Cleveland.
- [25:04]
Simon Hunter
Okay. I'll tell you what.
- [25:06]
Chad Millman
I.
- [25:06]
Simon Hunter
The five I put in early in the week, even though I did say I was on Washington, it was Houston plus three and a half, it was Detroit plus four and a half or minus four and a half. Surprisingly, I did put Dallas in early in the week at +2 and a half.
- [25:19]
Chad Millman
Interesting.
- [25:19]
Simon Hunter
Chargers +1 and a half and then obviously Tennessee +7 and a half. So.
- [25:24]
Chad Millman
So it's really coming down to if.
- [25:25]
Simon Hunter
You do want to switch out Dallas for Cleveland, like, that could be the one we dodged because right now The Cowboys, they're catching 70, 73 of the money. 86 of the money is on the Chargers. I. I am shocked. That much money is coming in on that Charger side. So people say we don't bet with the public. Those are two very public sides we're on right there. It's got to come back around. The public has been getting killed. I mean, yesterday I think they went.05 once again against the top five teams for college football, which was getting the most amount of money. So it's just been professionals who have been going against the public. It's just been cash and huge. So we could be stepping into it. Here. But I like trusting on my early week picks because it's before I get all this in my head, all this noise from the weekend of all these different teams. And yeah, if you want to switch Dallas for Cleveland again, I'm betting to Cleveland way more than I have any money invested in the Cowboys. If you want to own that one, I am happy to make that switch.
- [26:25]
Chad Millman
Let's do it. I just feel so much better betting a good defense against a terrible Miami team and a two quarterback who doesn't travel. We're going for Cleveland. I feel good about it. All right, our final five. Cleveland minus two and a half the LA Chargers minus one and a half the Tennessee Titans. That's right, the Tennessee Titans plus seven and a half. Those are the three games we got on Sunday. And then we're betting into the Monday Night Football double header. We got Detroit in the contest. We play, they're at minus four and a half. That is our line. They are now at six and we're playing Houston. We get them at three and a half. They're at three. I think we'd both still be comfortable playing them at plus three. That is the final list. One more time. Cleveland minus two and a half. Tennessee plus seven and a half. Chargers minus one and a half. Detroit minus four and a half. Houston plus three and a half. We got there, brother. I don't know. It's going to be hard. It's going to be really. It's going to be a really tough day. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight live at 7:30. To recap all the misery and glory of the day, watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until tonight. Love you.
- [28:13]
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- [28:47]
Liberty Mutual Narrator
And Doug, here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.
- [29:03]
Doug
Uh, Limu. Is that guy with the binoculars watching us?
- [29:05]
Liberty Mutual Narrator
Cut the camera. They see us.
- [29:07]
Liberty Mutual Ad Voice
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- [29:10]
Chad Millman
Liberty, Liberty, Liberty Savings.
- [29:13]
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- [29:15]
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- [29:23]
Simon Hunter
There it is again.
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- [29:45]
Simon Hunter
This is an I heart podcast.