The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "Sharpe or Square" NFL Week 8 Betting Finalists
Episode Date: October 26, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Theme: Finalizing top five NFL Week 8 bets, with in-depth analysis on key matchups, injury impacts, line movements, and sharp vs. square betting decisions.
Episode Overview
This episode of "Sharpe or Square" is dedicated to making the final picks for Week 8 in the NFL, wrestling with the latest injury reports and line movements to determine their top five contest sides. Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter take listeners through their decision-making, highlighting which bets are "sharp" (favored by professional bettors) or "square" (popular with the public). They bring a mix of honest self-reflection, betting education, sharp data, and personal conviction to the conversation.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Baltimore Ravens Drama: Injury Reporting & Market Impact
- Topic: The evolving Lamar Jackson situation, injury report controversy, and line movement.
- Details:
- The Ravens initially listed Lamar as a full participant, causing the line to move from -6.5 to -7. After he practiced with third-stringers and was ruled out, the line collapsed to -2/-2.5.
- The NFL is now investigating the Ravens for injury report manipulation.
- Quote:
"What a tone deaf, stupid, arrogant thing to do by John Harbaugh. And I feel like this is the week of stupid, arrogant things from NFL coaches." – Chad Millman (03:25)
- Conclusion:
- The hosts decide to pass on betting the Ravens, citing both injury chaos and a loss of trust in the organization.
2. Top Contest Picks Evaluated and Locked In
Houston Texans (+1 → -2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Reasoning:
- Texans have home-field advantage, a defense that matches up well, and CJ Stroud can function even without key receivers if he has time.
- Niners missing defensive playmakers.
- Quote:
"It's a bet on their defense at home in this matchup and a bet on CJ... You could give him no names. He made Nico Collins into a name. So that's the thing with CJ—he can take guys you haven't heard of, make it work as long as he has time." – Simon Hunter (07:47)
- Verdict:
- Houston is played at anything under a field goal.
Denver Broncos (-3 / -3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Reasoning:
- Broncos can generate pressure on Dak Prescott, and Dallas struggles on the road, especially outside controlled environments.
- Public is attracted to Dak as an underdog, but hosts feel the line is off by 1–2 points.
- Quote:
"We love those types of spots where people think this number is too good to be true. I still think this number is off by one or two points. So I love that you're still getting under four." – Simon Hunter (10:27)
- Verdict:
- Confident in backing Denver at -3 or -3.5.
New England Patriots (-6.5/-7) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Reasoning:
- Browns are coming off a big win and are vulnerable on the road, especially with QB concerns.
- Patriots in a favorable matchup at home; pros are waiting for line movement to get the best number.
- Quote:
"How am I not pulling the trigger? Against a Browns defense that we know we like to bet against when they're on the road off of a big win..." – Chad Millman (14:00)
- Verdict:
- Wait for -6.5 if possible; strong lean to New England.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5/3) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Reasoning:
- Contest line offers a hook at +3.5. Steel City bounce-back after a bad loss, while Packers' record may exaggerate their perceived strength.
- Game should be close; key is getting the full three points.
- Quote:
"We always feel better on the three... We want that three, so especially in this type of matchup that could easily come down to Green Bay last second field goal to win it." – Simon Hunter (26:49)
- Verdict:
- Take Steelers +3.5; three points are key.
New York Giants (+7/+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
- Reasoning:
- Eagles missing A.J. Brown and other starters, Giants are relatively healthy.
- Eagles have struggled to close games and have a modest point differential.
- Line seems too big for an inconsistent Philly squad.
- Quote:
"This is not a juggernaut of an Eagles team. This is a team that can't close teams out." – Simon Hunter (18:34)
- Verdict:
- Prefer Giants at +7.5 (the “hook”); expect a sloppy, close game.
3. Other Notable Games & Leans
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+3.5):
- Wiseguys are heavy on the Saints with the hook, due to a mounting Bucs injury list, but both hosts are still hesitant making it a top play.
- Quote:
"I'm not going to force us to bet Baker against Baker two weeks in a row." — Simon Hunter (13:18)
- Jets at Bengals (+6/+6.5):
- Jets are the sharp side, but too much uncertainty and not enough value at the current line to recommend.
- Colts (-14.5) at Titans:
- Simon likes Colts even at a massive number, but it won’t make the top 5.
Sharp Unders of the Week
- Dallas at Denver (Total 51.5):
- Projected to be a slog, prefers the under.
- Houston vs. San Francisco (Total 41.5):
- Defensive struggle likely, another under.
- Cleveland vs. New England (Total 40.5):
- Expecting Patriots to stifle Browns offense, under again.
- Quote:
"I could just see the Patriots winning 20 to nothing or 20 to three... Just feels like a gross, boring game." – Simon Hunter (29:56)
Lightning Round: Moneyline Parlays & Monday Preview (30:38)
- Chad:
- Moneyline parlay with Chiefs, Falcons, Patriots.
- Simon:
- Likes Bills most, suggests Bills, Chiefs, Colts combos but warns:
"We know some upsets are going to happen... Just be careful out there, people with these type of bets." (32:10)
- Likes Bills most, suggests Bills, Chiefs, Colts combos but warns:
Final Top Five Bets & Betting Advice (28:26, 32:28)
Simon & Chad’s Final Five:
- Houston Texans (+1 to -2.5)
- Denver Broncos (-3.5)
- New England Patriots (-6.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
- New York Giants (+7.5)
Actionable Advice:
- Grab the best available number (especially the hook on Giants and Steelers, -6.5 on Patriots).
- Be patient with line movement, especially as sharp money comes in on Sunday.
Best Quotes & Moments
-
On injury report controversies:
"This isn't 2015... everyone is in bed with these gambling companies. You cannot be doing this anymore. It's a new age." – Simon Hunter (05:22)
-
On betting gross underdogs and numbers:
"It just feels like going to be a really close game. Possibly the ugliest uniform matchups of the season. Wait until you see these tonight, people, just going to be brutal." – Simon Hunter (27:06)
-
Signoff wisdom:
"Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you." — Chad Millman (32:28)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [03:08] – Discussion of the Baltimore Ravens’ injury mismanagement and its betting fallout
- [06:55] – Locking in Houston Texans as a play vs. San Francisco
- [08:45] – Reasoning for continuing to back Denver Broncos
- [13:38] – Deep dive on Patriots-Browns as rock-and-hard-place pick
- [16:47] – Justification for Steelers over Packers
- [17:15] – Giants as a sharp play with injury walkthrough
- [29:44] – Unders of the week
- [30:38] – Moneyline parlays, Monday Night preview, piggybacking
- [28:45 & 32:28] – Final five bets, betting best practices
Summary
Chad and Simon bring sharp, sometimes contrarian takes on NFL Week 8, ultimately settling on Texans, Broncos, Steelers, Patriots, and Giants as their most valuable contest bets. The episode is a masterclass in contest line shopping, reading injury tea leaves, and understanding how sharp money creates opportunity. The banter is candid, sometimes self-deprecating—never shying away from owning last week’s mistakes or calling out NFL coaching missteps. If you missed the episode, this summary arms you with both the strategic reasoning and the practical bets embraced by two of the most respected voices in the sports betting industry.