Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL Week 9 Bets: Cowboys-Cardinals, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, Chiefs-Bills and more

Date: November 2, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This episode of “Sharp or Square” is dedicated to making sharp betting picks for NFL Week 9, serving bettors who want to understand both the “sharp” (wise guy) and “square” (public) perspectives. Chad Millman (media veteran) and professional bettor Simon Hunter analyze their five final contest picks, breaking down injury impacts, line movements, and matchup angles for key games including Chargers-Titans, Lions-Vikings, Texans-Broncos, Chiefs-Bills, and more. The episode dives into why they're favoring favorites this week—an unusual development for their typical strategy—and includes discussion of line shopping and betting philosophy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Chargers (-9.5) at Titans

[03:33 – 06:03]

• Context: Chargers are heavy road favorites against a Titans team missing several key players.
• Injury Analysis: Titans will be without star DT Jeffrey Simmons, WR Calvin Ridley, S Xavier Woods, and LB Arden Key.
• Market Movement: Sharps have bet the Titans, but the line holding and even creeping up to -10 in some places signals mixed professional/public action.
• Philosophy: Millman and Hunter are hesitant but believe “this is just another back-to-back get right spot for this Chargers team in a great matchup” (Chad, 04:24).
• Advice: “We need this to hold as we are at 9. I would not take this at 10. But if you could get it right now at 9, I'd still get it, people.” (Simon, 05:46)

2. Lions (-9) vs. Vikings

[06:40 – 08:22]

• Context: Lions favored big at home; Vikings starting J.J. McCarthy after a long injury layoff.
• Handicap: Confidence in Goff/Campbell at home and strong Lions running game. Vikings’ run defense cited as weak.
• Rust Factor: Concern over McCarthy's rust and the Flores defense not matching last year’s version.
• Quote: “This just feels like a horrible, horrible spot for this kid to step into. Rusty walking into this…might be a horrible disaster spot for them.” (Simon, 07:39)

3. Texans (-2) vs. Broncos—The “Brass Balls” Bet

[08:22 – 10:31]

• Context: Texans shifted from underdogs to favorites during the week vs. 1st place Broncos.
• Injury & Market: Movement attributed to Nico Collins playing and Broncos’ Pat Surtain being out.
• Philosophy: “This is a true test for CJ [Stroud]…it takes a little bit of balls.” (Simon, 09:18)
• Market Analysis: Professionals backing Texans; public split, more tickets on Denver but more money on Houston.
• Quote: “We kept hammering home…we felt the line…getting a good number. It’s proven out.” (Simon, 09:37)

4. Chiefs (-1.5/-2) vs. Bills

[10:31 – 12:49]

• Line Movement: Contest line opened at -1.5, moved up to -2.5 at points, with professional resistance.
• Buffalo Angle: Some pros support Buffalo, feeling Chiefs are overvalued after strong recent wins.
• KC Confidence: Hunter doesn’t trust Bills’ defense and sees Mahomes as reliable. Notes Allen "looks a little off" despite statistics.
• Quote: “This would be the type of game that Josh Allen does show up and put up big numbers and that’s what they’re going to need here… I just don’t see anyone there [Bills] secondary…it’s going to have real problems with this Chiefs passing attack.” (Simon, 11:54)
• Teaser Talk: “If anything, I’d tease the Bills up…but I don’t want to be trying to middle this one. I’m just heavily invested in the Chiefs here.” (Simon, 12:20)

5. Debating the Fifth Pick—Final Decisions

[12:49 – 26:54]

Honorable Mentions / Considered Picks

• Bears (-2.5) at Bengals:
  • Market not pounding Chicago despite key Cincy injuries. Simon: “No one trusts the Bears, myself included.” (Jeff, 14:02)
  • QB uncertainty (Flacco questionable) keeps pros away.
• Panthers (+13) at Packers (Rock and a Hard Place “Hard Rock Bet” of the week):
  • Line feels inflated due to recency bias (CAR’s bad loss, GB’s late surge vs PIT).
  • “It probably should be 10…This Carolina team got so embarrassed. On the flip side, Green Bay had such a dominant win. It feels like we’re getting three points.” (Simon, 17:11)
  • “We’re always going to be believing…we still got this backdoor opportunity.” (Simon, 18:21)

Fifth Finalist: Falcons (+5.5) at Patriots

• Line Movement: Down from 5.5 to 4.5; taking 5.5 in contest.
• Sharps’ Reluctance: Simon notes being “bullied at the book about Chad’s picks” and the pro consensus siding with ATL.
• Key Matchups: Falcons’ running backs and TEs could exploit Patriots’ defensive vulnerabilities.
• Quote: “Very rare do I get bullied at the book about Chad’s picks…but that’s how pros feel about this Atlanta game. [NE] is overinflated. This line should be three, three and a half.” (Simon, 25:18)
• Contest Picks Recap:
  • Chargers -9.5
  • Chiefs -1.5
  • Texans -1.5
  • Lions -8.5
  • Falcons +5.5

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On shifting to favorites:
  “How far we’ve come—all favorites. Years ago we’d be battling to find a favorite that we love, just one to put into the contest. Now we have four that we love and have totally agreed on.” — Chad, [12:49]

• On Matt LaFleur’s mindset:
  “They asked him a question in the press conference about Halloween and his answer was, I told my assistant, I don’t give a shit if it’s Halloween. I’m trying to win a game.” — Chad, [19:12]

• On market philosophy:
  “We try to give out the best of the number. I feel like we did it Sunday night, gave out the plus one and a half early in the week, gave out the one and a half and gave it again on Thursday.” — Simon, [10:04]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Chargers-Titans Analysis: 03:33 – 06:03
• Vikings-Lions Discussion: 06:40 – 08:22
• Broncos-Texans Debate: 08:22 – 10:31
• Chiefs-Bills Breakdown: 10:31 – 12:49
• Fifth Pick & Contest Recap: 12:49 – 26:54

Final Five Contest Bets

1. Chargers -9.5
2. Lions -8.5
3. Texans -1.5
4. Chiefs -1.5
5. Falcons +5.5

Tone & Style

The episode is conversational yet analytical, with friendly banter and self-deprecating humor about betting foibles and the evolution of their strategy. The hosts highlight sharp-vs-public money distinctions, injury news, and their uncharacteristic lean toward chalk (favorites) this week, regularly referencing “brass balls” picks, rock-and-a-hard-place moments, and how they try to give listeners the best of the betting number.

For anyone who missed the episode, this summary captures the major strategies, market analysis, and the personalities that make “Sharp or Square” a go-to resource for NFL betting insight.