← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL Week 9 Bets: Cowboys-Cardinals, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, Chiefs-Bills and more
00:23:22
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- [00:00]
Jeff
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
PayPal Sponsor
This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app.
- [00:37]
Odoo Sponsor
Expires 1231 see paypal.com promoterms subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457 hey.
- [00:49]
Ryan Seacrest
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- [01:20]
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- [01:53]
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- [02:45]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharp or Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume pilot Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my co host, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:06]
Jeff
Chad. How we doing, dude?
- [03:08]
Chad Millman
Ready to rock and roll. Stayed up late to watch some great baseball. Not impacted by moving the clocks back at all. I am ready to roll. This is the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharp or Square. I are going to try to nail down our five picks now that we know all about the injuries and the latest line moves. Are you ready, Simon Hunter?
- [03:32]
Jeff
Let's get into it.
- [03:34]
Chad Millman
These are the games that we had pretty much locked in on the other day and I think we feel good about four. We're going to have a challenge on the fifth. Here we go. Los Angeles Chargers -9 at Tennessee. Reminder our history with the Chargers in this spot is not good. Meaning when we back them on the road as a favorite against a team that we think stinks. But this is not just a bad team. It is a bad team that is without Calvin Ridley at receiver. Today is without starting safety Xavier Woods. It is without starting linebacker Arden Key and most importantly, their best player, defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons. Last thing I'll say, because I want to get to your take on this. When ESPN reported Jeffrey Simmons was not going to be playing, they listed five players who are going to be trying to fill his role in rotation. That's not good.
- [04:28]
Jeff
Yeah. And it's a game that I, I laughed about because I, I've been getting a lot of the books this week. Like last night, World Series. Everyone's there, even guys I haven't seen in a while. Came to the book last night because it's like it's just a night you got to be there. And I this was a big one. A lot of guys talking about this game where it's like every pro is taking a position on Tennessee. And I said to them, this isn't two, three years ago. This is a totally different league. These are key numbers. And I'm not gonna lie to you, I was a little scared when that number held at Eight and a half for a couple days. I couldn't get over that because it's like getting pounded by professional money and public money. Luckily been up all night. That extra hour killed me. It was like, what am I supposed to do with this? Yeah, we, we got some books popping the 10 and that's what I needed to see. I needed to see some books touch the 10 because that lets me know that they're not really trying to take a position on Tennessee and that it's not all professional money holding this one up. So we like the matchup. I, I still can't believe we were doing this. Like this is such a non bet. We never make a really, really public road favorite after they had a blowout win in a prime time game. But it's, it's. The trends are nice here and it's also a new age like we talked about in football. So this is just another back to back get right spot for this Chargers team in a great matchup. Like you said. Key, key guys are out for this Tennessee team on a team that cannot afford to be missing these guys. So we need this to hold as we are at 9. I would not take this at 10. But if you could get it right now at 9, I'd still get it. People.
- [06:04]
Chad Millman
I love that you took the extra hour to keep doing more work and try to figure out how to spend your time. I took the extra hour to exercise for 50 minutes on the peloton before the show instead of after the show.
- [06:18]
Jeff
Well, it's again, you're not up to slate. It's never not weird where every year I forget when the time changes and it's like, you know, it's 1:30, I'm working. All of a sudden I look up and I'm expecting to be 2 or 3 and it's 1:15.
- [06:32]
Chad Millman
Yeah, right.
- [06:33]
Jeff
What just what just happened? So that's always very weird. Again, as a man that has not married no one in my life to tell me the clocks are moving back. It's never good.
- [06:41]
Chad Millman
You can always call me, I'll tell you. Minneapolis or Minneapolis, Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine point favorite. This was Chad's choice. This is another one where I'm glad it finally ticked up. I think some of this is a lot of public money starting to come in on Detroit at the end of the day. The reason why I like this, and I think you like it too, is we believe more in Jared Goff and Dan Campbell at home as big favorites given their history. Plus their running game, which is the strength of this team than we do in. JJ McCarthy on the road in his first game after nearly two months of being out. And a Vikings run defense that just frankly has not been very good this year.
- [07:21]
Jeff
Yeah, and this is another bet where I like to lie to myself and say I wouldn't usually make this, but I would years ago. Because what you just talked about, it's Campbell Goff in a matchup at home against a team that's just struggling right now. And this is not the answer. Right, J.J. him coming in and burning us because there's no tape on him. And he has this incredible impressive game because there is a winner in him like we know he has. Of course, a guy that knows how to win and make big plays and big moments. But this just feels like a horrible, horrible spot for this kid to step into. Rusty walking into this. And you talked about the Flores defense. It's not what it was last year. Right. They're not getting these turnovers, they're not getting pressure on the quarterback. You said they're. They're run. Run defense is just terrible. Their best thing is their past defense. But I think we've seen them against a couple good passing offenses. That might not be so true. So it just might be a horrible disaster spot for them. Like you said, this number, a bunch of books are already pushing nine and a half. Hopefully people listen to Chad here. Chad's choice got a day and a half. It's. It's moving on up. It could get 10 by kickoff.
- [08:23]
Chad Millman
Look at us, two games down, two huge chalky public favorites of more than a touchdown. This is what happened to us. Denver at Houston. Houston minus two. Now, this was our brass balls and I got a lot of questions about this. How could we make this our brass balls? Look, we're still betting a team that's under 500, that is a favorite in a game that flipped in which they used to be underdogs against a first place team. It's moved a little bit I think because Nico Collins is going to be playing. And it moved a little bit off of the injury news about Pat certain that he won't be playing. So I like the matchup here. I like the opportunity. I like the Texans defense. I have no fear of betting this at two. We've been betting at minus one and a half.
- [09:15]
Jeff
Yeah. And to the naysayers, be happy. We must made the Chargers this bet, which I really don't think takes any balls. I think this takes much more balls than the fact that like Chad said, this is a true test for C.J. this is gonna be the best defense he's faced. This is gonna be the best offensive line. The Houston's front is faced defensively, so I think it takes a little bit of balls. But the big reason we loved it so much, too, is we kept hammering home. We felt the line. We were getting a good number. It's proven out. I mean, a couple really public books out there are still at the one and a half. I'd still grab that if you can, but a lot of books. I've already hit two and a half this morning. So you can see the way the. The professionals are going. And I think it's another week the public's going to try to fade this Texas team like last week, the 49ers, but it's not as extreme. I think last week we joked it was like 80 of the bets on the money.
- [10:00]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [10:00]
Jeff
Was coming in on that 49ers side.
- [10:03]
Chad Millman
This is.
- [10:03]
Jeff
This is way more split.
- [10:04]
PayPal Sponsor
Right.
- [10:05]
Jeff
There's much more professional money. The tickets, obviously, is on Denver, but the money is on Houston here. So, you know. But we try to give out the best of the number. I feel like we did it Sunday night, gave out the plus one and a half early in the week, gave out the one and a half and gave it again on Thursday. So, yeah, it's just a number. I would be shocked if it all holds at two and a half. I could see more buyback from the public this morning on this Broncos team, but the direction, like I said, it's going is minus two and a half.
- [10:32]
Chad Millman
Last one. We agree on Kansas City at Buffalo. Kansas City's minus two right now. This was Simon says when it was Kansas City minus one and a half. This one also has bounced around like it got as high as two and a half, then got bet down. There's some places where you can still get a one and a half. I think there's some professional community elements here that really like Buffalo and think that Kansas City has been riding high and might be a little overvalued because of their wins the past few weeks. I think you and I just don't trust Buffalo's defense as much as we playing Buffalo's defense. And we do very much trust Patrick Mahomes.
- [11:16]
Jeff
Yeah. And I think a lot of the pros, their position, they've come in on the/2 and a half with this team. So you have seen it fluctuated. But it does look like that's where it's starting to settle a little bit. Right. Which I am Shocked by I thought the pros would keep this at minus one and a half just because I didn't realize there'd be so much resistance here. I, I really thought the Bills would be a public plan, the pros would be on this Chiefs team for what I talked about. Like, it's as much as people want to say Josh Allen's numbers are the same as they were the the year before, talk to any real Bills fans, he just doesn't look the same. He looks a little off. And the schedule has been much softer this year than it was last year. And that's including, you know, a bad loss to the Patriots, which, you know, maybe the Patriots are better than I'm getting credit for and then a really bad loss to Atlanta. So I don't know. This would be the type of game that Josh Allen does show up and put up big numbers and that's what they're going to need here because I just look at this matchup for this Chiefs team. I know the Bill's got guys back, but I just don't see anyone there secondary. It's going to have real problems this chief's passing attack. So yeah, Chad, I, I, I think we have one and a half in the contest. Like you said, it's, it's minus two at Hard Rock. Shop around, see if you can still find the 1/2. Like I always say, 2 or 6 number. This is going to be a tight one. I just can't see either side blowing out either side. So a lot of people ask about teasers. You can put this in the teasers. But I just, if anything I tease the Bills up, which I don't want to be in this. I don't be trying to middle this one. I'm just heavily invested in the Chiefs here. So to me, if you can find the one and a half, obviously grab it.
- [12:50]
Chad Millman
All right, so those are the four we know we like Chargers, Lions, Texans, Chiefs. How far we've come all favorites. Years ago we'd be battling to find a favorite that we love, just won to put into the contest. Now we have four that we love and have totally agreed on. We're having a hard time agreeing on a lot of other games this week. There's three that I want to raise right now, including the game that will be our rock and a hard place Hard Rock bet of the week. This one will not. But I just want to ask you about it because it all feels fishy to me. Chicago is a two and a half point favorite at Cincinnati. It's been Bet down from three. So the wise guys came in at three. Trey Henderson, doubtful. Joe Flacco, questionable. This line is stinky, stinky, stinky. Like, I don't get why Chicago isn't being pounded. And it's kept me from betting the Bears at minus two and a half because it makes no sense that knowing Trey Hendrickson is not going to be playing and that Joe Flacco is questionable and we're getting Jake Browning and nobody on defense. Why is nobody in the wise guy community betting the Bears?
- [14:02]
Jeff
Because no one trusts the Bears, myself included. Like, I was going to be all over this if there was no Joe Flacco, but that's, that's a big deal, the fact that he's going to be back against your very suspect, banged up defense. So, you know, Caleb should have a big game.
- [14:16]
Chad Millman
He's questionable though.
- [14:18]
Jeff
Who, Flacco?
- [14:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [14:20]
Jeff
He practiced though. And like he practiced, I believe Thursday. And then they showed him what they needed to see and so they rested him.
- [14:25]
Chad Millman
Okay.
- [14:26]
Jeff
I can't stand enough. He'll. If he needs to, he'll get a shot. Like it's. They need him like, and he knows that he wants to play. So I think they're going to make it work because I, I early bet the Bears when I thought there was possibility there's going to be no Flacco with you. I think we talked about it on Thursday as soon as I saw you practice. He looked good throwing it like just same old Joe. So I just was, okay, I'll get out of this position and another game where normally I'd be hammering this Bengals team, this probably should be closer to a pick. Honestly, again, no disrespect to this Bears team, but this is a team that when they do win, they on the road especially they win these close games that they really have to grind it out and fight to get that final possession. Like, you know, Vegas game, they stole that one. Washington Commanders, they stole that game. It's really interesting to see Caleb develop. I know. No Swift, right. I think Swift's out for this game as well. He's been a bright spot for this team offensively, so I think that's why the pros have come in. But like you said, I, I'm happy this is another game. Just happy to avoid if I can.
- [15:32]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [15:33]
Jeff
Joe Flacco takes the wrong hit like you're talking about, they'll yank him. He's just, he's playing on already on a bad shoulder. And on the flip side, I just don't know how much I trust the bears as a 2.2 and a half point favorite on the road even against a suspect team like the Bengals.
- [15:47]
Chad Millman
Yeah, same. That's why I haven't really invested in this game. Carolina plus 13 at Green Bay. We talked about it on Thursday, Simon. Carolina is going to be our rock in a hard place. Hard rock bed of the week. Look, Bryce Young is starting, this line is barely moved. And I feel like the number is based on a really bad game for Carolina in which Andy Dalton was playing against Buffalo and a really good 20 minutes for the Green Bay packers against the Steelers. From 5:43 on against the Steelers, the Packers dominated. They won. They outscored them 21 to 6 in the final 20 minutes. So it just feels like too big of a number for a Carolina team that is getting discounted because of a really, really bad game that could have been an anomaly for how they had been trending both defensively and with Bryce Young.
- [16:58]
Jeff
Yeah, and I feel like this never plays a fluctuate a lot because there are some pros taking positions on Green Bay because they viewed last week as okay. This is going to be the Green pay getting healthier now, getting the form and just going to start steamrolling teams because they are, I mean most people have them graded out as like the third or fourth best team in the nfc. I mean, I know a lot of people in media have them number one because they're record, but they're still an unproven team. So that's why it's like, yeah, if, if we get burned here, it would be brutal, but this is an insanely inflated line. Like, I feel as, like I think you were in agreements here. This probably should be 10 because this Carolina team got so embarrassed. On the flip side, Green Bay had such a dominant win. It feels like we're getting three points. I mean there's 13 and a half's out there people. So we know the deal here. We're gonna need Bryce Young to put up points. Right. Carolina's defense, Green Bay, if, if Jordan loves on, they're going to be able to move the ball. They just don't have defensive weapons that really get stops. I guess a team that just has multiple receivers that rotate that are good and then Tucker Kraft in that run game, it's just are really when Green Bay's got to go and we know we're walking into one here, but I think like we talked about this defense that can be passed on. You know, we've seen even Jacoby Brissette was passing the Ball against the Screen Bay defense. Like they have a secondary that can be passed on. All the weapons are healthy for Carolina passing game rise. Rico Dow is apparently going to be the number one today, which I really love for the Carolina. Like this guy's earned it huge. I'm a huge Chupa Hubbard fan. But be honest here. It's just, it's, it's night and day. Rico down. Every time he touches the ball, it feels like he's getting six or seven yards. So we should have our number one back with our number one quarterback with all the weapons in Carolina here and it's just a big spread, so we're always going to be even when we're down 20 nothing. Chad, me and you are still going to be believing totally. We still got this back to our opportunity. So I love the fact this is up to 13. Such a key number. And we both agree this, this is an inflated line.
- [18:52]
Chad Millman
All right. So the one thing that scares me the most is I love watching Matt LaFleur press conferences. He's kind of a dick and he gave a great answer. They asked him a question in the press conference about Halloween and his answer was, I told my assistant, I don't give a shit if it's Halloween. I'm trying to win a game.
- [19:12]
Jeff
Jesus.
- [19:13]
Chad Millman
That is what's scary when you're talking about Matt LaFleur. We've, we've bet on that attitude a couple times and it hasn't worked out. So I'm hoping today, again, it can be another win for us with Carolina.
- [19:28]
Jeff
Crazy as the floor is, he doesn't really lay it on teams. He just, he keeps, he tries to keep as many places he can hit in, which I love about the floor. Like if, if he's up by 10, they just run it three times. Like they get it back, they'll just run it three times. So like we talked about, this is just a very, very big number.
- [19:45]
Chad Millman
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- [21:38]
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- [22:14]
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- [23:26]
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- [24:07]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this fall. Take care of the little ones in the family with Baby Club Savings now through November 4th. Spend $25 on select Baby Club products and save $5. Shop for items like Pediasure bottles, Pedialyte powder packs, Huggies baby wipes, Huggies diapers, Gerber puffs and Gerber pouches. And save $5 when you buy $25 or more on participating products. Offer ends November 4th. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
- [24:37]
Chad Millman
Last game and I feel like this is the one we're going to put in for our fifth Atlanta at New England. The line is four and a half. It's been bet down from five and a half. I liked Atlanta at five and a half. You've liked New England. I just feel like New England is at peak, peak, peak in Atlanta because of what happened last week is low, low, low and they're getting the players back that missed last week to make it go low, low, low, low. So tell the people what you told me before we went on the Air Jesus, Jeff.
- [25:19]
Jeff
I I basically let Chad know. Very rare do I get bullied at the book about Chad's picks and me missing it and Chad seeing it. But that's how professionals better feel this Atlanta game. And like I said on the show, I even think I said on Thursday like I know this is the professional side. There's a ton of games this week. Like this should be a great week for the professionals and the sports books. But just worried. We're just in a new age here and that's my fear here. Like everything you said is true. New England's over inflated. This line should be three, three and a half. We've seen at times when New England's looked bad like they did against Pittsburgh and you know, turnover bug hits them. They're just not a mature team. Right. Like Rabel came here. This is the first year they still have many holes that's you know, shielded because they have such an easy schedule. Like they just haven't played tough matchups. So for this one a lot of the pros what they talked about is I think a little bit we spoke about is if you're going to attack this Patriots team, sure they might be good at stopping the run but they're really susceptible to back running backs out of the backfield which you know Robinson could be argued as one of the best receiving backs out of the backfield and they're not good across the middle. Right. They're not great with tight ends and patterns through the middle of the field. So think it'd be a big pits game as well. So they do have the pieces on Atlanta to really make this team struggle and it is five and a half in the contest. So I haven't bet it. I've like I told you I took a little position to land. I don't know. The Patriots really had no feel for this game. But you're confident the other pros are confident. I'm not going to fight you on if we put in as our fifth one.
- [26:54]
Chad Millman
Well I like it also we're getting a little bit of a better number. I think Green Bay in this game is in the contest is 12 and a half. So we like Carolina plus 13 and a half. We like Atlanta at least I do. I think we're going to put. I know we're going to put. I'm committing us to putting Atlanta into the contest. So to be clear, our final five are going to be Los Angeles Chargers. It's nine right now. We like it at nine. It's eight and a half in the contest.
- [27:27]
Jeff
No, no. Chargers are nine and a half in contest.
- [27:29]
Chad Millman
It's Chargers minus nine and a half in the contest. I think we're fine with that.
- [27:33]
Jeff
Yeah, yeah. I said as long as under 10.
- [27:36]
Chad Millman
-9 and a half. Kansas City. We're putting him in the contest. One and a half in the contest. Yeah, great. It's one and a halfs are still out there. Go get it. Houston one and a half in the contest. I think you can still get some one and a halfs on Houston. Detroit eight and a half in the contest. It's going to be tough to find eight and a halfs, but we like Detroit at nine as well, which is what you can get in a lot of places right now. Atlanta is four and a half. We liked it at five and a half. We're going to take advantage of that. We're playing Atlanta five and a half in the contest. So those are the final five. This has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight live at 7:30 after the afternoon games after Chiefs Bills. Really. To recap all the misery and glory of of the day, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods rate, Review Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until tonight. Love you. Hey.
- [28:49]
PayPal Sponsor
Let'S be careful.
- [28:58]
Chad Millman
Foreign.
- [29:03]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. Now through November 4th. Shop the annual beauty event and save $5 when you spend $25 on select beauty products. Shop in store or online for items like Dove Body Wash Native Body Wash, Cetaphil gentle skin cleanser, Dr. Squatch body wash, Neutrogena Hydro Boost Water Gel, Dial Liquid Hand Soap and Olay Body wash. And save $5 when you spend $25 or more. Offer ends November 4th. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
- [29:34]
Chad Millman
Morning, Zoe.
- [29:35]
Jeff
Jeff Bridges.
- [29:36]
Chad Millman
Why are you still living above our garage? I want to be in a T Mobile commercial like you. Teach me Saldana. I couldn't possibly T Mobile get the.
- [29:44]
Ryan Seacrest
New iPhone 17 Pro on them. It's designed to be the most powerful iPhone yet and has the ultimate pro camera system.
- [29:49]
Chad Millman
Impressive. Let me try at T Mobile. You can save up to 20% versus the other big guy. You heard them. T Mobile is the best place to.
- [29:57]
Ryan Seacrest
Get the new iPhone 17 Pro on.
- [29:58]
Chad Millman
Us with eligible traded in any condition.
- [30:01]
Ryan Seacrest
Check the math to see how much.
- [30:02]
Chad Millman
You could say, versus the other big.
- [30:03]
Jeff
Guys@T mobile.com switch this is an iHeart podcast.