The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square – FINAL NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets (January 11, 2026)
Episode Overview
This episode of Sharper Square is hosted by Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter, providing a candid, high-stakes breakdown of their final NFL Wild Card Weekend bets. The conversation balances sharp betting insight, fan storytelling, line movement discussion, and injury analysis—aimed at helping listeners make informed, strategic picks. The episode features a lively back-and-forth as Chad and Simon aim for consensus on their top five bets, blending emotion, statistical modeling, and sharp-vs.-square debate.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Fan Energy & Betting Karma
Chad’s Indiana Football Experience
[02:38–07:20]
- Chad recounts attending the electric Indiana vs. Oregon game in Atlanta, framing it as one of his “most incredible in-person live event experiences.”
- “It was truly like being at a home game in Bloomington… On that first pick, the DeAndre Pond's interception for a touchdown, I swear to God, we were levitating. I have never jumped so high again and again and again. Nobody could feel their feet on the ground.” (Chad, 04:10)
- Simon celebrates his birthday with his annual tradition: seeing a terrible January movie and watching the game.
2. Final Wild Card Weekend Plays: The Process
Setting the Board & Consensus Building
[07:20–08:48]
- Chad and Simon introduce their main goal: settle on a consensus for five contest picks, factoring in injury reports and late line moves.
- “Our goal: 5-0. If we can't get to a consensus that we love this pick, we'll move on.” (Chad, 10:18)
3. Game-by-Game Handicapping & Debate
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
[08:48–10:18]
- Chad loves the Rams; Simon is cautious, citing weather concerns and would prefer to bet the under.
- “If this was good weather, I would be all over with you... But it's the weather that's scaring me here.” (Simon, 09:10)
- Both agree: the safe wager may be the under, given forecasted poor conditions.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5 to -2.5) at Chicago Bears
[10:18–15:50]
- Chad: No expectation for Bears to win (emotionally hedging after previous sports joy); Simon: firm on Packers, highlighting professional money and market movement.
- “If they play this game 100 times, it feels like 60, 65 of the time Green Bay wins this game.” (Simon, 15:50)
- Notable “Rock and a Hard Place Bet” of the week.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Under 44.5
[15:50–18:16]
- The line has moved away from Eagles (+3) to +6, draining value.
- Focus instead on the total: both endorse the under, with analysis on defensive matchups and key injury statuses.
- “Shanahan has always struggled in this matchup and against Vic’s defense wherever Vic has been. So, Chad, still love the Eagles, but… the safer bet here is the under.” (Simon, 18:16)
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at New England Patriots
[18:16–21:02]
- Chad and Simon both back the Chargers, citing underdog playoff QB trends and Patriots’ defense injuries.
- “No one likes fading an MVP candidate… but every trend tells you this is a bad spot to back the favorite, especially when playing a QB who has been covering as a dog consistently.” (Chad, 19:10)
- “If Herbert’s getting torched, Vrabel’s got the right plan, we’ll get burned. But me and Chad are suckers for these types of numbers.” (Simon, 20:07)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs. Houston Texans
[21:02–21:50]
- Both are strong on the Steelers, even if the line drops to +2.5. Backing Tomlin at home, with belief in the Steelers to win outright.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
[27:17–30:02]
- Near pick'em by game day; Simon prefers Jaguars first half and the over, citing defensive strengths and potential for a high-scoring affair despite anticipated bad weather.
- “This to me is the best. This feels like it has real ramifications for the AFC.” (Simon, 28:07)
4. Navigating the Final Card
[30:02–31:41]
-
After debate, Chad and Simon lock in the final five contest plays:
- Packers -2.5
- Rams -10.5
- Chargers +3.5
- Steelers +3.5
- Eagles/49ers Under 44.5
-
“If I get burned and it lands on two, I'm feeling like such an idiot.” (Simon, 31:18)
-
“Well, I'm taking the Rams at minus ten and a half. I'm gonna feel like an idiot too.” (Chad, 31:25)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- [04:10, Chad]: “On that first pick, the DeAndre Pond's interception for a touchdown, I swear to God, we were levitating... The greatest communal event you could possibly imagine.”
- [09:10, Simon]: “If this was good weather, I would be all over with you... But it's the weather that's scaring me here.”
- [13:28, Simon]: “It's just been never ending amount of money... pouring in on this Bears team. And one of the sharper books I know has popped to two, two and a half on this Packers team. So... there's still really, really smart professional money coming in on this Packers team.”
- [19:10, Chad]: “No one likes fading an MVP candidate, but every trend tells you this is a bad spot to back the favorite, especially when he's playing a quarterback who has been covering as a dog consistently.”
- [28:07, Simon]: “This... feels like it has real ramifications for the AFC. ...Is the run game of this Jags team, who hasn't given up a 75-yard rusher all season, gonna go against the number one rushing offense in all football?”
- [31:25, Chad]: “Well, I'm taking the Rams at minus ten and a half. I'm gonna feel like an idiot too.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [02:38] – Chad's Indiana game recount & sports karma theories
- [07:20] – Setting up contest picks and outline
- [08:48] – Rams-Panthers: side and total breakdown
- [10:18] – Packers-Bears: total, side, and line movement
- [15:50] – Eagles-49ers: loss of side value, shift to under
- [18:16] – Chargers-Patriots: underdog logic, injuries, trends
- [21:02] – Steelers-Texans: strength of Steelers case
- [27:17] – Jaguars-Bills: first-half play, the over, and AFC stakes
- [30:02] – Locking in the final five picks and rationale
Tone & Style
Informal, insightful, and banter-filled — Chad and Simon blend fan enthusiasm with sharp, professional sports betting analysis. Their dynamic involves mutual respect, frequent self-deprecation, and transparency about the process, successfully catering to both “squares” and “sharps.”
Final Takeaways
- Focus is on the quality of the number and context (weather, injuries, line movement) over fan bias.
- The best bets incorporate both “fan gut” and “sharp money” input, with no ego at the table.
- Despite the banter and humor, the episode delivers actionable intel for wild card weekend bets and helps listeners think like both a fan and a professional.
Sharper Square Final Five:
- Packers -2.5
- Rams -10.5
- Chargers +3.5
- Steelers +3.5
- Eagles/49ers Under 44.5
“Fasten your seat belts. It’s playoff time.”
– Simon Hunter [32:15]