The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharper Square - Final Week 16 Bets
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 21, 2025

Overview

In this episode of "Sharper Square," part of The Herd and The Volume Podcast Network, sharp bettor Simon Hunter and host Chad Millman break down their final Week 16 NFL bets. The duo candidly discusses their betting process, highlights pivotal decision-making moments, and debates key matchups, all with their trademark blend of sharp insight and self-deprecation. With contest lines in mind, the focus is on strategy, line value, and the unique psychological roller coaster of NFL betting.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Bears-Packers Recap and Betting Emotions

[03:20 - 06:09]

• Both hosts reflect on the chaotic but thrilling Bears comeback win against Green Bay, highlighting the emotional swings and the improbable fourth-quarter heroics.
• Chad shares the frustrations and allure of betting the Bears:
  "Every time I bet on this team, they leave me scratching my head for three quarters, and all of a sudden that magical fourth quarter comes around ... an NFL record right now. They've won six games they've been trailing in with two minutes left in the game." (Chad Millman, 04:17)
• Simon emphasizes the crucial impact of penalties:
  "It also is just an indication of how much penalties make a difference in this game ... every single little mistake has a huge, huge impact on the game and how it can swing momentum." (Simon Hunter, 06:09)

Contest Approach & Line Value

[06:09 - 07:46]

• The hosts introduce their approach for the week, focusing on line movement and locking in value early in the Sharper Square Pro Football Pick'Em Contest.
• Record update: Chad and Simon are 6-4 in the contest since joining.
• The pair sets the stage for regret, humorously calling this "the semi stripped-down, in-the-room, eavesdropping version" of Sharper Square.

Featured Bets & Analysis

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

[07:47 - 10:14]

• Simon and Chad are all-in on the Panthers as home underdogs, praising their resilience, post-loss bounce-back record, and noting Tampa’s struggles closing games.
• "This just feels like such a number spot for this Panthers team where this should be a pick.” (Simon Hunter, 09:23)
• Caution that the line could drop:
  "If you can't get a 3.5, I'd lock it in now. I think this will be 2.5 by kickoff." (Chad Millman, 09:52)
• Key Stat: Bryce Young leads the NFL in fourth-quarter/overtime comebacks since 2023.

2. Buffalo Bills (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns

[10:14 - 13:22]

• Hosts admit this is their most public play, betting a big road favorite and fading the home dog narrative.
• Chad calls it a “rock and a hard place bet,” emphasizing Buffalo’s strong matchup against defensively tough but offensively inconsistent Cleveland.
• "It's a unique spot, right? Josh Allen tends to do really well against really dominant defenses.” (Chad Millman, 12:17)
• Emphasis on Bills’ rushing attack vs. Browns’ recent run-defense struggles.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Denver Broncos

[13:22 - 16:36]

• Despite some discomfort, Chad and Simon are on the Jags with the hook, crediting their offensive explosiveness and the importance of line value.
• "It's really about the number ... if this is 2.5, I wouldn't have really forced us to take this one. But 3.5? I can't avoid it." (Chad Millman, 15:47)
• Denver’s defense poses a risk but Jacksonville’s streak of high-scoring outings and strategic playmaking give the hosts confidence.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-6.5 in contest, now -7.5 market)

[16:36 - 19:06]

• Lions are a favorite “bounce-back” team; hosts rely on Dan Campbell’s ATS dominance post-loss (14-1).
• "Can the Steelers' offense keep up? That's what it's going to come down to for me." (Simon Hunter, 17:53)
• Recognize Tomlin as a dangerous underdog but trust Lions’ offensive prowess and the value of an early -6.5 number.

5. New England Patriots (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens

[19:06 - 21:39]

• Despite late pro money on the Ravens, Simon defends taking the Patriots with the hook, citing Vrabel's history and New England's competitive first halves.
• "Never lost. [Lamar] is 6-0 in these two weeks, Week 15 and 16. It's crazy ... but the Ravens could win this game, but to me, by more than a field goal, they're going to need so many things to bounce their way." (Chad Millman, 21:04)
• Game concerns: Patriots’ second-half collapses, but belief is Baltimore needs a lot to cover the number.

Debates on Alternate Picks and Line-Shopping

[27:50 - 33:51]

• Giants (+3) vs. Vikings: Not included due to contest line dropping to +2.5; value paramount.
• Colts (+5.5) at 49ers: Simon’s “sharpest line of the week”; presents a compelling case centered on matchups and historical edge, but ultimately not enough value compared to established picks.
• "Don’t let this five and a half scare you off. ... This feels like a really bad spot in a matchup for this Niners team.” (Simon Hunter, 32:16)
• Ultimately, hosts choose to stick with Patriots and the original card, with regret and second-guessing part of their admittedly “human” process.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "We are not the team that comes from 10 down in the final two minutes, recovers an onside kick and then throws a bomb where the quarterback ... stuffs his hands into his hand warmers because he knows he just dropped it in to the basket."
  — Chad Millman on the Bears (03:34)

• "We're making some regretful, utterly human decisions and getting to our final five."
  — Chad Millman setting the show's tone (06:59)

• "We're going against all of our instincts. ... Doesn't get more public than this."
  — Simon Hunter on betting Bills -10.5 (10:55)

• "But the opportunity for the Lions to dominate in the run game here is what we're really leaning into."
  — Chad Millman on Detroit’s advantage (17:29)

• "I can't get talked out of the New England one because I think it's such a good number and it's such a good Vrabel spot."
  — Simon Hunter on sticking with the Patriots +3.5 (32:47)

• "Our last ones out are going to be really Minnesota at the New York Giants plus two and a half ... Also had a couple conversations about Arizona ... Raiders at 14.5 ... we're going to be watching it."
  — Simon Hunter, on notable near-picks (33:51)

Final Five Contest Picks (Decided Picks with Reasoning)

[33:52 - 34:50]

• Carolina Panthers +3.5 (vs. Buccaneers): Home dog spot, resilience, and value in the number
• Buffalo Bills -10.5 (at Browns): Fade Browns' offense, trust Bills’ matchup and athleticism
• Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (at Broncos): Hook value, Jags’ high-powered offense, and matchup uncertainties for Denver
• Detroit Lions -6.5 (vs. Steelers, contest line): Bounce-back trend, Campbell ATS, trust in Detroit offense
• New England Patriots +3.5 (at Ravens): Vrabel/Patriots history, belief in New England keeping it close, skepticism over Lamar covering large spreads

Timestamps for Key Betting Decisions

• Bears-Packers Recap: 03:20 – 06:09
• Panthers vs. Bucs Analysis: 07:47 – 10:14
• Bills vs. Browns Analysis: 10:14 – 13:22
• Jaguars vs. Broncos Analysis: 13:22 – 16:36
• Steelers vs. Lions Analysis: 16:36 – 19:06
• Patriots vs. Ravens Analysis: 19:06 – 21:39
• Alternate Pick Debates (Giants, Colts): 27:50 – 33:51
• Final Picks Announced: 33:52 – 34:50

Tone and Style

True to Chad and Simon’s style, the episode is bracingly honest, occasionally self-mocking, and always analytical. They blend sharp betting strategy with the realities of NFL variance and emotional investment, often addressing the listener like a fellow sufferer in the "square-sharp" continuum. Back-and-forth debates on line movement, second-guessing, and the pain of “almost” picks add relatable depth to the betting process.

For listeners (or bettors) seeking this week's sharpest insights on NFL sides, this episode delivers both analysis and authentic insight into the mind of the expert sports bettor.