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Chad Millman
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Simon Hunter
Boom. 42. You're going down Doug. Oh yeah.
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Simon Hunter
Hey.
Chad Millman
Limu, what are you doing on their team?
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Chad Millman
Liberty. Liberty. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
Simon Hunter
Chad.
Chad Millman
How we doing Brother, I've passed the bad to worst. I had a good run. Let my legacy be the Texans covering and winning. I think I'm on the other side of it. I don't sound like it. Definitely not feeling perfect, but I will feel better if we have a great day today, brother.
Simon Hunter
Well, maybe you being an NFC north champ will make you feel a little better as well.
Chad Millman
NFC north champion Chicago Bears. We're going to get to them in so many of their games. This is the semi stripped down in the room version of Sharper Square. We're going to make some terrible decisions today, but hope everybody enjoys the ride. Remember, you can see the dynamic contest lines. Simon and I are playing at the free Sharp or square pro football pick' em contest. If you've signed up to play@sharpersquare.the volume.com you can be tracking Simon and I in the contest. Chad and Simon BFFs is our name. Are you ready, brother?
Simon Hunter
Let's do it.
Chad Millman
All right, first one up, Seattle is minus seven at Carolina. The best line we can get in the contest because the contest only plays half point lines of seven and a half. This was Simon says, I think we're leaning into it. We're taking a shot. Lots of tickets on the Panthers. So I like fading the public here. This is clearly going to be the public dog of the week.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And we have a, you know, we do have a favorite that's very public that we like. So at least we have one favorite that everyone just absolutely hates. And that's always a nice spot to be. Like you just said, it's. It's never good to really be hammering the public dog. It does hit that. We talk all the time. It does. True. But for this matchup there is, I think people are overlooking this game a lot. Where there is a reason this number is so high that the Seattle's defense is dominant. Probably the best defensive Panthers will play all season. And we've seen this Panther team, you know, they have been up and down, but when they faced really good defenses or at least really good play callers, they've struggled. I mean, I just keep thinking back that solid game for the 49ers. Right. I think they have nine total points and it's just, you know, it's, it's a lot to ask her. Bryce Young and I talk all the time about this. It's the human element too. How are they not looking ahead to the Bucks next week? I mean, how can they not be thinking about that? So, yeah, it's painful to do it, Chad. Painful to go against our Carolina Panthers here, but really like this match for the Seahawks team. And I think it's another game where they're going to show why they right now are the 1 seed. They're just a really dominant team, so well coached. So this is. This feels like a great matchup for the Seahawks.
Chad Millman
Yeah, the Seahawks have been playing great all year. This is a good chance for them to reaffirm their position atop the conference. The NFC New Orleans at Tennessee. This number is down to one and a half. And this is a good example of why it's important to listen to every show. This line opened New Orleans -3. We talked about it on Tuesday on the show. Betting Tennessee +3. If you were betting the contest, like we said, these are dynamic lines. If you were betting the contest all week, you were getting Tennessee plus two and a half. We currently have Tennessee plus two and a half in the contest. I still love it. This is the side of the wise guys. Tennessee. This is the sharp side. All the tickets are on New Orleans, so we do have some reverse line movement here with the public coming in on New Orleans and the professionals betting Tennessee.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and I hate to say that this doesn't feel like a game where the line is going to matter. I just would be shocked seeing this number land on two just because it's two rookie quarterbacks. I'm expecting a lot of chaos, a lot of dumb stuff. So, yeah, I wouldn't let the one and a half scare you off. If you are like Chad and you do love Tennessee and like you said Thursday, Tuesday, all the shows we've talked about Tennessee, that was the professional side. And then we saw the number continuing to come down. I am shocked because it's so early in the morning here that it is already down to one and a half. I thought this would still be two, maybe three, getting closer to kickoff than the professionals hit it. But looks like someone was busy overnight using all their money from the Ravens. Texans win. So pretty shocking to see it down to one and a half. And like Chad said, the Saints probably the biggest, second biggest public side right now behind the Jaguars. It's just a ton of money hammering that side. So, yeah, it pains me because Chuck's my guy, but I've been saying it all week with Chad. It's. This feels like a Tennessee spot. A Tennessee number. They shouldn't have been a dog. This should have been a pick or maybe a small favorite on Tennessee. It's just the Saints. The, the shock hype has reached peak Level after that huge win last week against the Jets. So it's again, if he wins this, it's another respect to him. This feels like a total let down spot for him. And we've seen Tennessee, like Chad talked about their fire, their head coach since then, you know, five and three against the spread. They've won three games though in that mix. Like they've just been a totally different team. So it's, it's a nice time for us to get back on this Tennessee train.
Chad Millman
Mike McCoy, they call him the Master Master Mike McCoy. Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Another line that's moving in the direction of the Steelers. Since the Ravens won last night, everyone now I think there had been some hedging on this. People have been betting the Cleveland because they thought, all right, if the Ravens lose without Lamar Jackson, then the Steelers might rest starters because they will have wrapped up the ns the AFC North. Now we know that's not going to be the case so we can expect Pittsburgh to play all of its players. We had been betting 10, betting Cleveland long before the expectation of that, that they wouldn't be playing starters because we're going back to our roots. We're betting Cleveland at home with a great defense that we hope returns to being a great defense. And we're fading the Steelers in a road favorite anti Mike Tomlinson. Ra ra spot. I will say it makes me a little nervous. I think the line has moved from three to three and a half because the public has been coming in on the Steelers. But you never feel good betting the Browns.
Simon Hunter
You never feel good. I do think that's a Mason Rudolph, Aaron Rodgers move too. Right. If this was, you know, guaranteed, Roger wasn't going to play. It wasn't gonna be Mason Rudolph. Probably would have kept going down. Probably would be two and a half, two by Kickstarter. The. The live movement feels, feels right to me. Right. You're getting Pittsburgh a much better team with the better quarterback. And like Chad's saying here, it's never, it's never a good feeling back in the Browns here. But told you, we have history with this one. We always blindly bet the Browns at home here and you know, it's crazy, for the last five they won outright against the Pittsburgh Steelers in this exact spot. And we talk a lot of time divisionally, these teams kind of have to throw the records out. So certain teams match up well against other teams and we've seen that time and time again. So yeah. Will it be brutal when we're sitting here Sunday night and Pittsburgh rolls by 30 of course. But we also saw coming in a sense that we've, we've been worried about this Browns team quitting for, for months here and they did show life last week. It's, it's part of the reason we knew we were buying back in this week. And you know, just look at the matchup as well. The Browns are going to be able to run the ball against Pittsburgh. I know Pittsburgh's defense has been better, but they still are down Watt, they're still down a couple guys on the D line. And I do look at this Brown team. That is their identity of the day, right? It's not Shador. It's that run game being consistent for them. So it's gonna be interesting to see what they do now in this matchup. And I don't know about you, Chad, but the fact that it's backed up to three and a half honestly makes me feel better. I'm just glad everyone listens. Can get the hook because, you know, it would have been pretty if we woke up this morning, it's two and a half and people couldn't get that. Because I do think this game does feel like it's going to land right on three.
Chad Millman
Yeah. No, totally agree. Philadelphia at Buffalo. This is a line that's been moving as well. The Buffalo Bills currently two point favorites at Hard Rock. It was down to one on Thursday. A lot of that I think is because we were unsure of Josh Allen's status with his injured foot. He came out and said he's good to go. He's playing the Buffalo Bills. Simon are going to be our Rock in a hard place. Hard Rock better the week. Look, we've been betting into this all week. Basically since Sunday we've been leaning towards the Bills. It got down to 1. I bet it even more at 1. I bet the Bills on the money line just to get a little bit of a better price, but expecting Josh Allen to play. So now we just have to contend with the fact the Eagles rush defense is really what we're betting against. Right. We're betting against them not being able to contain a mobile quarterback and hoping that a mobile quarterback can be effective even when he's injured. We're hoping that James Cook and the rest of that Bill's offense can effectively run the ball against a 22nd ranked rush defense. It's not going to be through the passing game. The Eagles pass defense has just been getting better and better and the Bills really don't have the weapons to take advantage of. Of sort of the lack of Outside corner depth for the Eagles lines moving back in our direction. So I kind of feel good about that.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And this is the game I was always going to hate for us because I knew this is going to be by far our biggest public play. Right. This is.
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
All public money. And I think the public has the same view as we did. It's just the Bills feel like they're gonna be the more desperate team. I don't know. There's something about this Eagles team I haven't trusted all season. And normally I would love the Eagles in the spot. Right. It's. Jalen Hurts is an underdog being overlooked a little bit. Right. Especially, you know, looking at multiple different books here. He's getting less than 20 of the money. That's usually when the Eagles burn these type of teams, but we've already seen it. Right. The Eagles have a couple guys are going to sit here. Lane Johnson still isn't back. Supposed to be freezing rain and really bad weather in this matchup as well. And this is like we always talk about. It's Josh Allen at home in bad weather. Yeah. Even if we're down 14, it's just going to be like that spot. We never feel like we're dead. We always are going to believe he's going to be able to get us back into this, especially any number under three. So really about playing the number here, like Chad said, it's running up to two and a half. There is one, one, one and a half left out there. The two is not gonna scare me off any either. So anything you get under three, I would take it here on the Bills.
Chad Millman
At home for the last game we've leaned into before we get to some that we're still considering. The Chicago Bears plus three and a half at the San Francisco 49ers. The Sunday night game, it's. It's moved to three at Hard Rock, but a lot of three and a halfs out there.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
I don't know. I. I feel like we're stepping in it a little bit. Like I will tell you, I have so many futures tied to the Niners making the super bowl that part of me almost needs them to win this game to get the number one seed and have a chance to play against Seattle for the number one seed. And the Bears having wrapped up the division makes me feel like maybe I want to root for my bet here, my futures bet. But at the end of the day, we're getting the hook for the Bears that have a great running game and we're leaning into their magic a little bit. I got to tell you, I'm just tailing you on this one. That's really what it is.
Simon Hunter
Well, your dream might come true, buddy. This is why we play the spread. The 49ers can win. We can win our bet. So you can get the best of both worlds.
Chad Millman
That's what I'm hoping.
Simon Hunter
I. I am shocked to hear you say this nonsense. You have a chance of the one seed. What is wrong with you right now? You are a beaten down Bears fan. Oh my God. I can't get over what you just said.
Chad Millman
We're not getting the one seed. There's no chance.
Simon Hunter
I mean every. Every Bears fan was left this team for dead. I feels like in week five or six and now they have potential to be the ones you. So I can't fault you for not believing. It's. It's. It's what your organization usually does let you down. But I keep telling you feels like it's a new age and I as great as this 49ers team has been, we've given them a ton of props. They have to get bit eventually by this defense. The defense is horrible. They have no. They have zero pass rush. It's. It's alarming when you break down the numbers how bad their defensive line is. It's just been a total mute point. And Salah just. I mean even you know, it's the coach of the year race is so brutal. Like Shanahan, I see why people want to give it to him, what he's done this year.
Chad Millman
Oh yeah.
Simon Hunter
Incredible. Between Mac Jones, you know, steps in, they don't miss a beat. Purdy comes back once again. They don't miss a beat. Like it's incredible how he's made that locker room hold together while losing Fred Warner and Bosa. So I get why you're scared of this 49ers team, right? We know this is a juggernaut and the Bears. This feels like a David and Goliath. It feels like most people in general public do not believe what you're saying too. They just do not believe the Bears in this spot. And the money does reflect that. This which had said the ton of money especially since that game yesterday since the Bears clinched the north has just come in pouring in on the Snyders team. So another game. I'm happy we're getting a great number three and a half on this Bears team. I think this is a game where they could easily win outright. They just matchup wise. I love their offense against this 49ers defense and we talked about it. I think the defensively they're going to have a lot of schemes and stuff they can do against Shannon's offense that they're going to hide like they've been doing all year, hiding their safeties, put them in weird spots where they get these crazy turnovers and I like that here for this Bears defense. So couldn't have asked for a better Sunday night game. Just two teams fighting for the number one seed. NFL nailed it.
Chad Millman
All right, let's take a quick break and hear from Hard Rock Bat and then we're going to discuss which teams which we might want to put in to replace some of these guaranteed losers we got Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock BET Florida Sportsbook, and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Buccaneers, Heat, Magic and panthers. It's week 18 and playoff spots are on the line. I think you know how it will play out. Build the same game parlay on Hard Rock Bet and turn game day into payday. Or if you're more into hardwood than the gridiron, you can put up shots on the NBA and college every night on Hard Rock Bet, your home for hoops action all season long. You can even combine your football and basketball bets. If you've got a week 18 parlay, add an NBA bet or player prop to turn it and turn up the payout. And if you missed the start of the game, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting, so you're never too late to bet any football or hoops game all season. Find a winner or grab that player prop you had circled and bet live in just a few easy taps. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida and also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day, so whenever you're listening, just open up the app and check out what you've got any day of the week Week Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem that wants help, call 1-809-with-IT gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
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What a matchup we got, y'.
Simon Hunter
All.
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10 athletes will face the toughest job interview in fitness that will push past physical and mental breaking points. You are the fittest of the fit. Only one of you will leave here with an IFIT company contract worth $250,000.
Simon Hunter
This is where mindset comes in.
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Chad Millman
Simon the New York Giants are visiting the Las Vegas Raiders, and after the show we recorded on Friday where we were starting to lean pretty heavily into the Raiders, mainly because the Giants were going to have Andrew Thomas and Max Crosby was supposed to be lining up opposite whoever that new left tackle would be. It was announced Max Crosby would no longer be playing this year and then he just left the facility because he's so pissed about it. Because he's maniacal and I love that about him. This line moved from Raiders plus a half to Raiders plus two and a half. I want to bring it up because of the Crosby kerfuffle. No reason for me to play it anymore.
Simon Hunter
That's fair. And yeah, I love just some guy the front office thinks he can go to, maybe one of the best physically talented athletes in all of the sport and be like, hey, we're sitting you for two games. You've been banged up all year. Enjoy it. You deserve it. We'll put you on IR without thinking this second path is going to be like, dude, this is my life's work. Why would I not want to play in this game? So he's been trolling the hell out of them. I think he posted on Instagram videos of him shooting basketballs off one foot and him like dunking and stuff. Just trolling them. So Max Crosby, Bears would love you. I know that. Oh my God, we would love you. Everyone is licking their chomps right now being like, dude, this man's gonna force his way out. Like it's just all the money works as well. Everyone's dove in it. All the money. I think it's like a really small dead cap hit for this, this Raiders team. So I think this is someone that wants Crosby to be on a good team. This is like a dream scenario for me. It's like he's going to force his way out.
Chad Millman
In my Covid haze, the past 48 to 72 hours, I did run through multiple scenarios to get Max Crosby to the Bears. I think, I think I have one. I want to talk about it on Tuesday show. I'm gonna save it for the show.
Simon Hunter
But yeah, for this game, I, I think nothing's changed for me. Right. I'm. It's two horrible teams. I'm just gonna bank on the trends because there's no real read for me on this game. Like Chad just said, both teams are. They're tank often right now. Yeah, both teams are sitting star players. I saw multiple people posted on social media of all the Giants players out like 11 o' clock midnight last night, walking around Vegas and doing stuff. So it's just a very weird spot where I don't know how serious either team's taking this one because both front offices, clearly they're trying to tank. So it's a bizarre game. But I like, I just can't get over that. It's. It's Pete Carroll, a veteran coach who I think knows his job's done. I think he's going to try to win this game. And now I'm getting even better odds. Like they're plus two and a half now. So it's a sucker bet.
Chad Millman
You know what, just take the money line.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you can. I, you know me, I'm a big sticker on the two and a half, but the money line is plus 130 plus 125. Not a bad bet either. But crazy. I'm looking at right now, the splits, all the money, all the tickets are coming on the Giants and I can't believe they're. People are hammering the Giants in this spot. So, yeah, kind of, kind of a funny game. And I get why the lines moved. Right. Max Crosby, probably worth a point and a half, two points to this Raiders team. Defenses, so live movement makes total sense.
Chad Millman
The last game I want to talk about.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Because I can't believe we haven't spent more time on it. Is the Patriots visiting the jets. And The jets are 13 and a half point underdogs. This is like, this should be a blind bet for us. Like the Jets a smash spot of a home dog in the division of nearly two touchdowns against a Patriots team. I don't know if you saw the clips from Mike Vrabel's press conference the other day, but he opened basically going through a list of players who would not be playing that included Milt Williams, defensive tackle Treveon Henderson, running back. Now since then Mack Hollins is out as well. So like I know the Patriots have stuff to play for, but thirteen and a half points on the road at an end of season game. I just want to make the case that we should be having a serious conversation about this in an unserious world, in an unserious moment for the jets, we should be having a conversation, a serious conversation about betting the Jets.
Simon Hunter
No, I don't hate your Reed, but I do want people to understand there's a huge difference between this and that Chiefs game, right? The Chiefs, they have the coaching, they have the pedigree, they have the veteran players that have done it before. The jets literally have none of what I just said. They have none of that. So that's my biggest issue. Like the quarterback, you know, the Chiefs could have made, could have made it work. They can make this third string, never play to snap, NFL make it work. The jets have simply not made it. So you know me and you got off the jets train at the right time, right? We jumped as soon as Taylor got hurt. Tyrod was our guy. He was covering machine for us. I think the last game we, we really bet on, maybe we did bet the next game after that. But he won that Atlanta game, right? They won 27, 24, something like that. The three games since then, Chad, they got blown out 34 to 10. They got blown out 48 to 20 and they got blown out by the Saints last week, 29, 6. So I, I do think your theory and your reasoning is right. Normally this would be a spot to take a Jets, but I just think they've totally quit on the season and they just have horrible coaching. So I, I cannot put money into it. And I think your read is right to the Patriots, it's not being talked about enough by, I mean maybe I'll bring it up now but like Chad said, the injuries, it's a big deal. A lot of the guys are missing. I think that Mack Hollins injury is going to be a huge deal for them in the playoffs. It feels like anytime they need a first down or a big play, Matt Collins has been that guy for Drake May this season. So really shocking to see they put him on the ir. I think it was like a domino injury just popped up out of nowhere. All of a sudden this guy is out now for four games for the Patriots. So, yeah, you're, you're, you're, you're right about maybe we'll look into this more in the Patriots in the playoffs that this is going to be a big downgrade because of all the injuries they've had. But I think they're making the right decision here. Sitting a bunch of people just trying to get right because I just don't know if the one seeds really refuse at this point. So, yeah, I don't hate your reach and I just, I can't back a jitson that totally worried they've quit.
Chad Millman
Mac Holland was actually only a few catches away from a pretty big bonus. I think he's like four catches from getting a $400,000 bonus. Something that I want to do on Tuesday as well, in addition to dissecting the Bears trade for Max Crosby, is we need to give people a list of the players who are close to incentives in their contracts in the final game of the season so people can be paying attention to that and think about how they might want to play those games. All right, so then here's our final five. Simon. We're going Seattle. It's seven and a half in the contest. We're taking it. We're going with Tennessee. We got it at two and a half in the contest. That line is currently one and a half. We still like, I think we still like Tennessee. Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Cleveland at three and a half. We're playing Cleveland, Philadelphia, Buffalo. The Bills are currently two point favorites to one and a half in the contest. We're on it. And we're playing the Chicago Bears at plus three and a half against the San Francisco 49ers in Sunday night Football. Those are going to be the games that we are playing. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square on YouTube tonight live after America's game of the week. To recap all the misery and glory of the day, watch or listen on YouTube. Like the video, subscribe to the channel, Download from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave this five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Until tonight. Love you. Come on, baby.
Simon Hunter
One time.
Chad Millman
One time. One time, baby. One time. One time.
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What a matchup we got, y'.
All.
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance, echo, drum beat. Everybody showing that school pride. Game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola.
Ah.
Crisp and refreshing That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note, just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colored everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU Pride going.
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10 athletes will face the toughest job interview in fitness that will push past physical and mental mental breaking points. You are the fittest of the fit. Only one of you will leave here with an IFIT contract for $250,000.
Simon Hunter
This is where mindset comes in.
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Someone will be eliminated.
Podcast Host
Pressure is coming down.
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Trainer Games on Prime Video January 8th. Watch the trailer on trainergames.com Season 2.
Of Unrivaled Basketball is here and the talent is unreal. The the best women's players on the planet are running it back with even bigger moments and bigger stakes. Don't miss as Paige Beckers, Nafiza Collier, Kelsey Plumb, Brianna Stewart and more take the court and redefine the game. This isn't your regular season. This is unrivaled, where the pace is faster, the energy is higher and every athlete shines. Unrivaled basketball Season 2, sponsored by Samsung Galaxy, tips off January 5 on TNT, TruTV and HBO.
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Chad Millman
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Episode: Sharp or Square – FINAL WEEK 17 BETS: Seahawks-Panthers, Patriots-Jets, Eagles-Bills, Steelers-Browns, Bears-Niners and More
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 28, 2025
This final Week 17 episode of Sharp or Square dives into the NFL’s biggest betting lines and games with hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter. With playoff races intensifying and lines in flux, they break down key matchups, identify where public money and professional sharps are landing, and debate which sides are the “sharp” or “square” plays. The tone is both analytical and lighthearted, peppered with friendly banter and behind-the-scenes insight into contest strategy.
Seattle -7.5 in contest, line mostly -7 at books.
Tennessee +2.5 in contest, line moving down to +1.5.
Browns +3.5, line shifted from +3 due to public on Steelers.
Bills -2 at most books, approached as “rock in a hard place” bet.
Bears +3.5, line moving toward Niners.
Conversation about moving lines due to Max Crosby.
Jets +13.5 at home, massive line.
(Timestamp 29:20–30:20)
In this lively and insight-rich episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dissect the biggest NFL Week 17 matchups, focusing on where sharp money is moving versus public perception. The hosts share strategies around contest betting, value in certain lines, and the importance of monitoring line movement and injury news—especially with playoff incentives on the line. The episode maintains its typical “sharp but accessible” tone, giving both casual and avid bettors entertaining and actionable perspectives.
For listeners looking to build their week’s bets, the contest five provided offers a sharp, nuanced approach—rooted in both data and a deep knowledge of betting markets and human psychology in the NFL’s crunch time.
End of Summary