Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: Sharp or Square - FINAL WEEK 18 BETS
Date: January 4, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: The Volume (iHeartPodcasts)
Episode Overview
This episode of "The Herd: Sharp or Square" is the much-anticipated Week 18 betting breakdown with expert bettors Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. The duo dig into the final and most chaotic week of the NFL regular season, analyzing line moves, playoff motivations, and injury news as they finalize their five contest picks and advise sharp and square bettors alike. From surprising weather games to wild line swings and heated debates about undervalued teams, the pod is packed with actionable advice and honest uncertainty.
Key Discussion Points & Game Breakdown
1. Recapping Key Wins & Lessons from Last Week
- The Panthers' wild win, Bryce Young’s clutch performance, and brutal conditions in another classic December/January NFL showdown are highlighted.
- Emotional highs and lows from their picks: win on the Panthers, loss on the 49ers.
- Quote: "[Bryce Young] had more 4th quarter OT wins than any quarterback in the NFL since '23…we got it with the brass balls." – Chad (01:43)
2. Week 18 Betting Landscape
Dynamic Contest Lines & Strategy
- The hosts explain their process: locking in lines early in the week for the contest, monitoring late week moves, and grappling with the chaos unique to Week 18.
- Quote: "Some of these lines we're talking about, there have been crazy moves…if you were smart, you either put picks in early and then you make changes later in the week, or you're playing the lines as they stand today." – Chad (04:42)
Detailed Game-by-Game Analysis
1. New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
[5:34 - 8:09]
- Big playoff implications: Falcons win, they're in; Saints win, Bucs go.
- Saints' offense depleted (Olave out) but meaningful bets on the dog.
- Both hosts note Atlanta’s uneven season and the Saints’ unpredictability.
- Rookie awards watch: Tyler Shuck’s “last impression” narrative.
- Quote: "It's his [Tet McMillan's] award…it’s just in a very, very weak rookie class." – Simon (06:35)
- Both are nervous but locked in early at +3.5 for Saints.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
[8:10 - 11:14]
- Bengals as their “Rock and our Plays Bet of the Week."
- Cincy wants to finish strong; history of peaking late, building for next year.
- Browns poor ATS after wins (0-6 last two seasons).
- Cincinnati’s offense expected to overwhelm banged-up Browns.
- Quote: "Joe is going to go out there backyard it up. He loves playing ball." – Chad (09:08)
- Strong consensus that line will climb; encourage listeners to act fast.
3. Detroit Lions (+3/3.5) at Chicago Bears
[11:14 - 14:11]
- Rapid line move toward Bears; lots of public money on Chicago.
- Bears’ D over-performing with injuries, but Lions in “buy low” spot.
- Concerns: Lions’ O-line injuries; can Bears outscore Detroit?
- Both see value at +3/+3.5 for Lions, even with recent struggles.
- Quote: "This is as low as it can get for this Lions team. I just don't know when that's right. It's a buy low spot." – Simon (12:09)
4. Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, now -13.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
[14:11 - 16:10]
- Biggest line move of the week: Rams opened -7, now -13.5.
- Hosts locked Rams at the best number early; massive value for contest.
- Caution listeners NOT to bet Rams at the current huge spread.
- Discuss McVay’s tendency to keep foot on the gas entering playoffs.
- Quote: "This is going to be the pivot point game for us this week…we’re getting a great number in the contest." – Chad (14:11)
- Stafford MVP long-shot mentioned with stat milestones in play.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5/4) at Baltimore Ravens
[16:10 - 19:38]
- Ravens with Lamar starting; line move tamer than expected.
- Steelers as prime underdog play; Tomlin’s motivational edge.
- Both note Ravens D not as dominant, Lamar’s injury concerns.
- “Poison spot” history between teams; they always play close.
- Quote: "You just need to take the dogs. And me and Chad, we paid dearly. I still look back, I cannot believe…as a five-and-a-half-point favorite. But even if we get burned here, it’s a long-term winner.” – Simon (17:34)
6. Philadelphia Eagles (-4) vs. Washington
[21:58 - 23:58]
- Jalen Hurts out; Tanner McKee in.
- Eagles playing more starters than expected due to injuries.
- Hosts see Eagles as a strong side but already committed to locked-in lines elsewhere.
- Simon high on McKee: “Everything about him reminds me of Nick Foles.”
7. Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants
[23:58 - 26:51]
- Cowboys have every reason to go full throttle, Giants do not.
- Market favoring Giants; sharp money for unclear reasons.
- Both feel “blind spot” about pro support but would still side with Dallas at key number of 3.
- Quote: "This is crazy, it’s been bent down this much... This should be a field day for Dak." – Simon (25:49)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- "This is the stripped down, in-the-room, eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. We’re going to make some tough decisions today." – Chad (04:10)
- “It just feels type of game…third down here. I know which confidence I have in the Saints team… on the flip side with Atlanta…they are another team that have been totally…up and down.” – Simon (07:00)
- “It’s the Tomlin voodoo at the end of the day.” – Simon (18:29)
- “Our official five: Saints +3.5, Bengals -7.5, Lions +3.5, Rams -7.5, Steelers +3.5.” – Chad (28:03)
Final Locked-In Contest Picks (Timestamps 28:03)
- Saints +3.5
- Bengals -7.5
- Lions +3.5
- Rams -7.5
- Steelers +3.5
Note: At current market, the Rams line is no longer available—locked in earlier in the week.
Closing Thoughts
- Chad and Simon reveal their Week 18 picks, acknowledge their nerves about the Saints and Lions, and stress the unique volatility of the final regular season slate.
- They urge listeners to pay attention to line moves, lock in value early, and be careful chasing late steam—especially on huge line swings like Rams/Cardinals.
Tune in later for their recap episode, where triumph and disaster will be dissected in true Sharper Square fashion.
“This ain’t Ray Nitschke and Dick Butkus and Deacon Jones over there. So let’s start kicking some ass. This team is not better than us.” – Simon, closing rally cry (29:03)