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Simon Hunter
Talk about stepping up.
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Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Part Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
Simon Hunter
Chad. Good morning to you, my good friend.
Chad Millman
Good morning. On the first Sunday of the NFL season 2025. This is this. We're calling this like the stripped down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square because this is what we'll be doing on Sunday mornings going forward and as most listeners know, you and I have been doing contests for years, whether or not people were able to play along. And on that Sunday morning of the NFL season, when we're putting in our final picks, you and I would be having a conversation about what the final five picks should be. And it was just us basically arguing and debating with each other over the final five picks for about 10 or 15 minutes. We decided, like, before Sunday kickoffs for this season, we're gonna let people into the room where it happens so they can get in real time what we're planning on doing. Because things change. Like, we might want to make picks that are on the wrong. On the right side of massive line moves over the past 48 hours. Injuries, etc. Stuff changes since Thursday. So now you get to hear all of that convo. Are you ready, Simon?
Simon Hunter
I am. And people should know we're going to do our best not to make too many changes. Right now. People hear what our five are. It's the same five I put in Tuesday. So if we make changes today, we can't help it, people. We're just like. We're like all of you, right? The Sunday morning panic is real. And I looked at my. My. My lineup this morning when I woke up, and it's like, how do you not overthink everything you do? Right? So, yeah, I'm. I'm loving this. This new routine we're doing here. I think it's really gonna be funny to see how unhinged we are by week seven, eight. So, yeah, right now, very happy. Life is good. It's gonna be interesting how this Sunday show keeps going throughout this season.
Chad Millman
Yeah, we're gonna be. We're gonna be quick. I know people are trying to do a lot of things on Sunday morning, so the. The idea isn't here. Deep. The idea here isn't deep dives into every game. It's just quick, quick recap on where we stand and how, honestly, Saturday and Sunday, I was like, I don't know, making breakfast or something yesterday. And this morning, too, when I woke up, I had, like, a little tingle because I'm like, all right, I get to check lines. I get to see how things have changed. I get to see if some of the numbers I want have moved in my direction. Have they moved away from me? And am I going to be an idiot and just chase the number anyways? Because I. I feel like this is my last, best chance. I'm trying to be really focused and disciplined. So couple things to think about. The contests Simon and I play, they Lock lines at different times. So we might talk about games where lines have locked on Tuesday or Wednesday. If we're playing that like locked line from a Tuesday to Wednesday, we're not going to recommend you play it in a contest that has lines locking today. We'll give you some alternative. So don't, don't worry. We're not going to leave you in the alerts here, Simon. First game like Tennessee at Denver. Your choice for brass balls. You own it. I will happily accept the W if it works and joyfully remind you of your mistakes later tonight if it doesn't. Any regrets? Hearing anything to change your mind at this point? The Hard Rock bet line on this game is eight. I don't know what our contest line is. Is it seven and a half? Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Contest, seven and a half. So it's just like the cowboys. I love the cowboys. This week our contest was six and a half. We, we didn't play like if it was eight and a half in our contest, we would have played cowboys. It's the same thing here with the Tennessee. I like Tennessee. But why, why would I be betting so much? Eight and a half. And now we're playing our most important contest of the year at seven and a half. So we could force it in if we want to. But to me there's better, better numbers out there and if this number lands on eight and we lose this contest, I would lose my mind about that because again people, we're sticklers. We might annoy you. We're talking about how me and Chad always want the best of the number. We get it right. The first two games, the spread did not matter. 1 1. One game this week will matter on the spread and that of course will be the game. Mean Chat put our contest so we are sticklers about it because we've been burned by the half a point. By the point. You know, like Dallas, I really loved it. If it was seven and a half, I think I could have forced us to take it. But at six and a half, me and Chad are going to take a line that's off by two points just because we love it. So that's, that's what people have to work us here. There's some games that we'll put in sometimes that even if we don't love it, it's the, the value is too insane to pass on and we're just playing the long term odds here. So yeah, the, the Tennessee game. I do love it, Chad. I still love it. It's seven and a half for our current Test. I don't know if it's gonna be one of our four best picks.
Chad Millman
Five best picks.
Simon Hunter
I already put Chargers in, brother. So we're already.
Chad Millman
Oh, you did? I didn't even know that.
Simon Hunter
No, no. Oh, yeah.
Chad Millman
All right.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Great.
Simon Hunter
We already up 1. Nothing, brother. 3.
Chad Millman
Look at us. All right, we got. We had the Chargers. What was the final line on the Chargers? Three and a half or three and a half. All right, so we had Chargers three and a half. We're going to have to get better at telegraphing this for our listeners as we go through this.
Simon Hunter
I literally said on the show, autoplay, three and a half, Chargers contest line. So I get what you're saying, but yeah, I just, I don't want to put anything on social media. If you want our. If you want our contest plays, this is where you're going to have to find it.
Chad Millman
That's fair. That's fair. All right. Cincinnati or Cleveland, still love it. The Hard Rock bet line is five and a half. Is five. The contest line is five and a half. Book it.
Simon Hunter
Locked in. So, like, again, one of the five plays I put in on Tuesday, Cleveland plus five and a half. So we'll keep it in there.
Chad Millman
Baltimore at Buffalo. The Hard Rock bet line is Baltimore minus one. Full disclosure, I played at minus one. We talked about it on the show. It was our rock in a hard place. Hard Rock better the week. Baltimore at minus one. We don't love playing games where the line is flipped from Baltimore is an underdog to Baltimore as a favorite. Those are scary sticky spots to play. But in the. In the contest lines, we play it's a plus one and a half. We're locking it in.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I. People listen to the show. I'd bet up to minus two. So if you're out there and you can still get the minus one and a half, I'd still take this on the Ravens live betting. And you know, this is a game that both teams have injuries to different positions. And obviously, at the end of the day, the biggest weakness to me in this matchup is the Bill secondary. So I do think we have a huge advantage with this Ravens passing offense and we need Chad talking nauseum. This is regular season, Lamar. This is exactly where you want to back them. This exact spot. So, yeah, would I have loved to have him as a dog. Yes, those. That would have been really nice to give it out this morning as a dog once again. But the line has flipped. I'm telling you. I'd still been up to minus two and me and Chad were taking a plus one and a half in the contest.
Chad Millman
Detroit at Green Bay. Look, this is my Chad Loves Love. When it was at two and a half. It's now one and a half at Hard Rock. Bet it's one and a half in the contest. I feel like we got a pass on this one. The value has moved away from us. I was sort of holding out, hoping it would get to 3. Like I said, I'm trying to be super thoughtful this year and not just autoplay a bet because my spidey senses are saying this is the right side or there's too much value. So I don't want to force this in at all. We're not getting the best of the number. Two and a half is the right value. Two and a half has become a key number. The market has recognized that. Maybe there was some inflation on the Packers. Not a play for me.
Simon Hunter
Okay. Yeah. So this is another game that. This is one of the five I put in for us on Tuesday. And my view of it was we got to put one super chalky public play right now. That could be the Ravens, so we don't have to force in the lines. Like you said, we do love the lines, but, yeah, it's not the best number. And it is by far the biggest public dog of the week. I mean, it is. Everyone I talk to, it's all Detroit money for what me and Chad believe is good reason. So, okay, we don't have to force that one. And there are some other lines we can put instead of that one, so I'll switch it out.
Chad Millman
So right now, just to recap, we've got Chargers at three and a half. We already covered that one. We're putting in Cleveland five and a half. We're putting in Baltimore plus one and a half. We like Baltimore up to minus two. So if you're in a contest and you're getting Baltimore minus one, have no fear, play it. We're passing on Detroit at plus one and a half because we like the value of two and a half. I'll own that. If it works out and we end up losing a game that we put in because we took Detroit out, I'm going to eat it, no problem. All right, then we got a bunch of games to debate here. So we got three in right now. Pittsburgh at New York Jets. This line has been sort of hanging around three all weekend, but this morning it's been moving in the jets direction. It's at two and a half. It's two and a half at Hard Rock bet it's two and a half in the contest. I don't know, brother. This one coming off the three scares me a little bit.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it's, it's. It's definitely a pros versus where the pros are lining up on the jets team and the public, they keep coming in heavy on this Pittsburgh side. And for me, looking at this matchup, a lot of things I do love about the jets and I love this number, but Chad's right.
Chad Millman
We.
Simon Hunter
We love it at three. We were hoping for three and a half in contest. We're sitting here Sunday morning. It's two and a half. You'll see.
Chad Millman
I don't.
Simon Hunter
I didn't even have this one in on Tuesday. I love this game, but there's just other games I love more this week.
Chad Millman
Las Vegas at New England. Las Vegas is two and a half right now. It touched the three. It just kissed the three. Little tiny peck now is a two and a half everywhere, including Hard Rock bet It's like they're really making it hard on us right now. The jets are two and a half, the Raiders at two and a half. I played both of these games at three. I probably feel better putting the Raiders in at two and a half than the jets at two and a half. Do you have an opinion on that?
Simon Hunter
Yeah, once again, I, I love the Raiders just other games I love more. So it's another game I didn't put it in for us on Tuesday. In my view of. It was a little bit the same thing. Right. I didn't know that Christian Gonzalez was out yet, so I could be tucked into it. Right. He's. Christian Gonzalez is out, which is arguably their best massive player. You know, the kid they drafted, you know, he's got a tall task today, I think. Was it Will Howard? I forget the name of the. Will Campbell has a big ass today. He's a rookie. Asked the drat they drafted, asked to block Max Crosby. Like, to me, we have advantages that we can attack and exploit here with this Raiders team, and this is a good matchup for them in many ways. But at the end of the day, I'm trying to stay true to a chad where it's. I love the Raiders season long and I'm worried I'm being a little too blind to it where I'm so heavily invested in this game and there's just so much I like about this team compared to this New England team. And yeah, I'm. I'm like, I already know I'm gonna kick myself If I don't take this one and they cover. But like I said, there's, there's other games I like more and I just did not put this one in first Tuesday. So if you want to be the breaker and this is the game you want to force in, I'm not going to stop you. But I think there's other games running. Go through the list here that you might, you might might like better.
Chad Millman
Well, the last one I want to bring up, I know we got three in so far. We need two more. San Francisco at Seattle. Seattle is plus two and a half in the contest, plus one right now at most books, including Hard Rock Bet. I feel like you're going to tell me you love this game and that you have done all the research. And now with questions about McCaffrey and like you talked about on Thursday, Kubiak's ability to create a rush scheme that takes advantage of the outside lanes where the Niners don't have the same personnel that they used to and that could be a spot. And you like the Seahawks defense. I feel like you were going to tell me we got to play the number here because the value is so, is so huge on Seattle. It is.
Simon Hunter
And it really does come down to the cat for injury. Right. And I think I was very confident coming to this week about the Seahawks team loving the matchup. And I mean, I could not walk through a sportsbook without a pro come up to me and ask me what my read is on this game and how much they love it. If they're overthinking and I, I'd agree with them. What we just talked about. Right. I love the Seahawks defense. I think they're going to match up really well against this 49ers team. And then the secondary, the 49ers, right. Like you just talked about, they've lost really key pieces and free agency to injury to the years. Right now they have a really young secondary. They're going to be tested by this run blocking scheme. Are these corners going to step up and tackle? Are their safety is going to play downhill and make the right plays. So a lot of questions to me about this 49ers defense where Seattle. I know exactly the defensive scheme I'm going to get. And now if there's no McCaffrey and their main focus would be shutting just down Purdy. I mean, come on, that is such a huge matchup and such a big deal for the Seahawks defense. So yeah, you nailed it. It's, it's really about the number plus two and a half. We love it. You know, most books out there, I think the best you can get now is plus one and a half. So if you, if you missed the Seahawks, you didn't take it when we talked about it on Thursday. Just be patient, right. McCaffrey gets cleared easily, will bump back up a point. This will go, go right back to 2 1/2. Stills could see the 49ers winning but the key number like we talked about, 2 1/2. This feels like divisional game close and grueling home Divisional Dog Week 1. Yeah, I can't avoid it. I know we already have one in there with Cleveland, but this is another one. I just, I love this matchup and this number for this team in this exact spot.
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Simon Hunter
So I'm gonna throw it out there and you give me your opinion because we didn't talk much about this game. This is strictly based off contest playing line value. Jaguars right now are up to four and a half. I believe Hard Rock has him at four in Jersey here. Contest, Chad minus two and a half, the Jaguars. So that is very tempting where we don't love them. We have a lot of questions, but we both agreed much better offense, much better defense than the Panthers. And you know, it's, it's, it's a lot to take in, but at two and a half, we're getting two points of value in week one. That's, that's a lot. So it's a game that we didn't talk much about, but it's minus two and a half right now, Jaguars at home, and the line live is at minus four and a half. So you don't have to say anything now. We'll let that simmer just for a minute.
Chad Millman
I don't want to, I don't want to react one way or the other. I've been, I'm not going to lie to you, that game's been on my mind and I feel like I just.
Simon Hunter
Never like the line.
Chad Millman
I don't want to be Panther blind, right? And like that's been a failing of ours. We, we over indexed on the Panthers last year. It didn't work out for us in the first half and then it crushed for us in the second half. So I don't want to think, okay, Bryce Young, he can fix everything when he's got no receivers and their defense is in shambles. I don't want to over index on thinking, okay, Liam Cohn is going to fix everything because like you said on Thursday, everyone says Trevor Lawrence was eight and three until he got injured in the last two years have been terrible. We get it. Two and a half is sneaky, hard to avoid, and we do like having a favorite in there that is not just like a Baltimore minus one. Right. Sort of a relatively chalky home favorite, which is what the Jags are turning into with some line value. Okay, I like it.
Simon Hunter
So that's what's tough because I know pros who love like, they've been betting the Jags at three, they've been betting the Jags at minus three and a half. They're even taking the minus four. And that's why you're seeing the four and a half pop now. Just because the pros I Think they're with Chad coming to the year. They just love the idea of the upgrade of that, the head coach position and Liam Cohen and you know, now we're in a spot here that mean Chad might be actually taking the Jaguars in our contest because the line value is just too good to pass up. And like Chad said, we need a favorite. That's our Achilles heel, people. If you're new to the show. Me and Chad only pick dogs. And we're sitting here right now, we don't have a single favorite pick. That would be our first favorite pick. The only other game that jumped out to me. Again, we talked all week. Just wanna know your head's at Miami plus one and a half. Chad, this is your baby. You love it still. Are you getting cold feet? It, it's another spot that it's super public, it's super chalky. But I, I told Chad I can squint my eyes and I see it. I see exactly what he's saying in this matchup, that it's Miami to indoors against a really bad secondary, Everybody's healthy. This is not a banged up Miami team. So it's tough. It's tough. I see exactly what you're saying. But yeah, it's, that's.
Chad Millman
I love it. I love it, I want it. I, I, I, I'm so glad you're listing it. I actually had it on the list and then I just didn't want to bring it up again because I felt like you were going to laugh at me. So. Yes, please.
Simon Hunter
So you want, you want them over the Jags?
Chad Millman
I almost want the Jags over the Seahawks. Like, you love the Seahawks, right? So, okay, well, who do you like better between the Jags and the Seahawks?
Simon Hunter
In my, in real world life, I am way more heavily bet into the Seahawks again. I never got the good number on the Jaguars. I was late to the party. I just, I didn't know what I want to do with that game. And by the time it already crossed the three, I had no money bet on it. So if you're asking me which one I actually have real sweat and money invested. It's Seahawks and I've been close, but again, for contest, I don't care about that. Like, I'm just trying to win a million dollars with you. So, like, yeah, I, I'm, I'm cool either way. But yeah, to me, if I'm going line value, yeah, there's no doubt. It's, it's Jaguars.
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think it's the Jacks. So last one out is going to be Seattle and we'll review this later tonight and see how miserable we are.
Simon Hunter
So you want it to be our final Miami, Cleveland, Ravens and we're switching out Seattle put in Jaguars.
Chad Millman
Yes.
Simon Hunter
Okay.
Chad Millman
And no Tennessee because of the +7 and a/2 and no jets and Raiders because it's plus two and a half, not three. Okay. So the final, remember we had the Chargers so we're already one. And oh, the final four for today, Cleveland plus five and a half. Baltimore, we like him at minus one. It's plus one and a half in our contest.
Simon Hunter
The.
Chad Millman
The Dolphins plus one and a half. It's about plus one plus one and a half in most books. No difference. Jags minus two and a half. It's been bet up to four and a half in a lot of books. So minus four at Hard Rock bet. So those are the picks as of right now. That's what we're going to put in. That's what we will be rooting for today. I'm feeling pretty good, Simon.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And people listening. Put your five picks in the YouTube comments. Let us see who you guys are taking for your contest. And you know, obviously before our our show Sunday night I'll post the exact games we did take and prove to everyone, all the doubters that we actually took these teams in the contest before we do our Sunday night show and hopefully we do the show coming in four zero brother. So yeah, I'm pretty excited for today and the games ahead.
Chad Millman
All right. This has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back in Sharper Square on YouTube tonight live at 7:30 to recap all the misery and glory of the day. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe. Most importantly do all these things because feedback is always a gift and it helps make the show easier to find for everyone. Until tonight. Love you.
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Simon Hunter
Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
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Episode: Sharp or Square – Last-minute NFL Week 1 bets for Steelers-Jets, Bengals-Browns, Dolphins-Colts, Raiders-Patriots & more
Date: September 7, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
This episode features the first “in the room” edition of Sharper Square, with Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter bringing listeners behind the scenes of their real Sunday morning contest picks for NFL Week 1. The goal: provide their up-to-the-minute decision-making process, highlight bets with sharp versus square (public) lean, address how line movements and injuries influence picks, and give contest advice rooted in experience. Listeners get a genuine, fast-paced window into the tension, regret, and last-minute pivots that accompany high-stakes sports betting.
1. Tennessee at Denver
2. LA Chargers (already played)
3. Cincinnati at Cleveland
4. Baltimore at Buffalo
5. Detroit at Green Bay
6. Pittsburgh at NY Jets
7. Las Vegas at New England
8. San Francisco at Seattle
9. Carolina at Jacksonville
10. Miami at Indianapolis
Memorable Moment (Line Value):
“That’s our Achilles heel, people. If you’re new to the show: We only pick dogs. ...We don’t have a single favorite pick!” (Simon Hunter, 20:35)
“Hopefully we do the show coming in four-zero, brother. So yeah, I’m pretty excited for today and the games ahead.”
— Simon Hunter (24:21)
This episode is fast, practical, self-deprecating, and focuses on the nitty-gritty realities of last-minute NFL betting. Chad and Simon are transparent about nerves, indecision, and second-guessing, while still modeling disciplined contest strategy. The tone is conversational and honest, offering plenty for listeners seeking an edge—or just the vicarious thrill—of the Sunday sweat.
For further picks and to share yours, head to the Sharper Square YouTube—Simon will post official contest entries before the Sunday night recap.