Sharp or Square - MARCH MADNESS BETTING PREVIEW: NCAA Basketball Picks & Predictions

Summary

The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharp or Square: March Madness Betting Preview (March 18, 2026)

Episode Overview

This episode of Sharp or Square, hosted by Chad Millman and pro bettor Simon Hunter, delivers a comprehensive NCAA March Madness betting preview. Special guest Josh Nunn, aka "Duck" (co-host of the Big Bets on Campus podcast and college hoops sharp), joins to offer expert picks, bracket strategies, and actionable insights on upsets, seed math, betting value, and stand-out players. The episode leans into real talk for both recreational and sharp bettors, focusing on data-driven predictions, an honest assessment of the bracket landscape, and a little bit of college basketball nostalgia.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. March Madness Betting Landscape in 2026

• Value of Classic Upset Seeds: Duck notes that the gap between top and bottom seeds is larger than ever due to NIL and the transfer portal, warning bettors not to overvalue the famous 12-5 or 13-4 upsets this year (08:43).
  • "The gap between the 1 through 4 seeds and the 13 through 16 seeds has never been wider... I don't see a lot this year with any of the 12 through 16 seeds." – Josh Nunn (08:43)
• Where to Find Real Upset Value: Focus on 11-seeds like VCU or South Florida, which are stronger than usual and have favorable matchups. The 12-seeds in particular (like High Point, McNeese State) have poor draws this year.

2. Play-In Games: Best Bets and Leans

• SMU -6.5 over Miami (OH) is Duck’s best play for the First Four (12:23).
  • Miami (OH) “could get overwhelmed a bit here by the athleticism of SMU. ...SMU took Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor. They defeated Louisville, North Carolina, Texas A&M.” – Josh Nunn (12:23)
  • Miami (OH) is correctly seeded, but likely out-classed.

3. Bracket Strategy: Don’t Get Too Cute with Upsets

• Advice Against Overloading Brackets with Upsets: Duck urges caution against chasing Cinderella runs for the sake of being clever (25:54):
  • “The gap between seeds one through four and say 13 through 16 is wider than it’s ever been... But I do think there’s value in the 11 line.” – Josh Nunn (25:54)
• Best Spots to Hunt for an Upset: 11-seeds like VCU and South Florida are real upset candidates (09:30, 25:54).

4. Futures Market & Top Seeds

• Odds and Paths of Favorites: Duke (+275), Arizona, Michigan (+350), Florida (+650), Houston (+900) are the five teams under 10:1 to win it all.

  • Simon notes that Duke is often hated, but the brand "has its haters and it should...50 years of just people hating that brand" (15:29).
  • Discusses how John Shire leading Duke is changing perceptions, but the anti-Duke sentiment lingers.

• Duke’s Real Chances: Duck is bullish on Duke, noting health, depth, and the dominance of Boozer, but warns the odds may not be worth it (17:02).

  • “Boozer can live at the line ...Duke’s really buttoned up and they’re going to be tough to beat.” – Josh Nunn (18:12)

• Outsider Watch: Names like Dominic Davis at Cal Baptist and Acuff at Arkansas are highlighted as potential unsung heroes who could catch fire (18:41).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“The gap between the 1 through 4 seeds and the 13 through 16 seeds has never been wider.”
– Josh Nunn (Duck), 08:43

“Simon, as an off-season bettor who now just counts your gold bars and calculates the cost and value of your Pokemon cards, how are you going to celebrate this week?”
– Chad Millman (07:09)

"They've been using some of the NIL techniques long before NIL was even a thing. So it's a disadvantage now because everybody else is now able to do it."
– Josh Nunn (20:30), on coaches like John Calipari and Sampson

“Simon says: I’m definitely betting Wisconsin minus ten...If they have their A plus game, they could easily win this game by 20.”
– Simon Hunter (39:21)

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Best Bets and Actionable Advice

Thursday’s Top Plays

• Wisconsin Team Total Over 87.5 (20:59; 39:21)

  • “Wisconsin should approach 100 points here.” – Josh Nunn

• Duke-Siena Under 136.5 (22:06)

  • Siena only plays six guys and lives in the mid-range; expect a low-possession, grind-it-out game.
  • Duck’s projected score: Duke 78 – Siena 52.
  • “I like the under at 136.5. Siena's offense is really, really going to struggle.” – Josh Nunn (22:06)

• Idaho-Houston Under 136.5 (23:58)

  • “Full game Idaho Houston under 136 and a half.” – Josh Nunn (23:58)
  • Houston’s defense, both teams’ slow pace should keep scoring suppressed.

Friday’s Top Plays

• LIU-Arizona Under 152 (32:51)
  • “This is a dead nut under 152. LIU is going to struggle mightily to score...Arizona is unlikely to put up more than 80 to 85.” – Josh Nunn (32:51)
• Wright State Team Total Under 63.5 vs. Virginia (35:06)
  • Wright State attacks the rim, but Virginia's block shots and defense should bottle them up.
• Cal Baptist-Kansas Under 138 (36:21)
  • “Kansas has to travel all the way across the country...Cal Baptist plays sound defense...I like the under.” – Josh Nunn (36:21)

Upset Watches / Bracket Angles

• Best Upset Candidates:

  • Actionable: Watch the 11-seeds: VCU and South Florida are Duck’s top Thursday upset possibilities.
  • Longshot: Keep an eye on Cal Baptist due to travel, matchup, and a possible standout performance from Dominic Davis (18:41, 36:21).
    • “Dominic Davis can score 40 points at any time...” – Josh Nunn

• Bracket Props:

  • Sum of Final Four Seeds – Under 9.5 (37:26)
    • “I have an exotic bet that I really like here ...total, some seeds to make the Final Four ...under nine and a half.” – Josh Nunn (37:26)
  • WCC Schools (Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, Santa Clara) – Over 3.5 tournament wins (38:38)

Final Four & Champion Lean

• Duck hesitates to lock in picks but expects a chalk-heavy Final Four (lots of 1- and 2-seeds).
• Suggests overachieving WCC teams, Gonzaga leading the way, for a prop bet.

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Top Segment Timestamps

• [02:03] – Show introduction, guest intro
• [08:18] – Duck’s myth-busting on seeding, true upset value
• [11:34] – Play-in games best bet: SMU -6.5 vs. Miami (OH)
• [15:27] – Examining public perception and value of Duke futures
• [17:02] – Duck’s take on futures: top teams, why value is mostly gone
• [20:59] – Thursday’s actionable bets (Wisconsin, Duke-Siena under, Idaho-Houston under)
• [25:54] – Bracket strategy: Don’t get upset-happy; where upsets could actually happen
• [32:51] – Friday’s best bets: LIU-Arizona under, Wright State under vs. Virginia, Cal Baptist-Kansas under
• [37:26] – Final Four predictions, prop angles (sum of seeds, WCC wins)
• [39:19] – Simon says: Wisconsin -10/-9.5
• [40:16] – Brass Balls Bet of the Week: TCU +120 over Ohio State

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Segment: “Simon Says” & “Brass Balls Bet of the Week”

Simon Says:

• “Wisconsin minus 10. Minus 10.5 at Hard Rock. Now minus 9.5. …If they have their A plus game, they could easily win this game by 20.” – Simon Hunter (39:21)

Brass Balls Bet:

• TCU +120 vs. Ohio State (Moneyline) (40:16)
  • Supported by Duck: “TCU...got hot down the stretch in Big 12 play…took Houston to the wire. I think TCU is a strong team and a team that I have also picked to advance out of the first round.” – Josh Nunn (40:36)

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

The show is fast-paced, candid, and deeply analytical – balancing humor and nostalgia (sharing sentimental stories, ragging on Duke, references to Rod Strickland’s Blue Demons roots) with sharp, practical advice. Chad and Simon play off Duck’s encyclopedic knowledge for insights fans and bettors couldn’t get elsewhere.

Best for: Any listener looking for actionable, data-driven March Madness advice—especially those filling out a bracket, hunting for value, or curious about why classic upset narratives may not pay off in 2026.

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Quick Hits

• Don’t overload your bracket with upsets this year—stick to the reliable 1- to 4-seeds, but use 11-seed value when hunting for that needed “contrarian” punch.
• Target the under in matchups with mid-majors whose style drags down pace, especially against elite, defensively stout teams.
• Props & futures are more about novelty/exotics than serious edge at this stage; the best betting windows for favorites are mostly gone.
• Duke, Wisconsin, Houston: all strong tournament picks, but know your price before pressing the bet.
• Brass Balls: root for TCU to surprise in round one.

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“It’s all about the next bet and the next series of events that are happening. ...I try to look forward to what’s happening next so we can get people to the window.”
– Josh Nunn (Duck), 05:51

Transcript

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

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[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. All year long I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad, how we doing?

[Chad Millman]

Good. I think we did pretty well on the Oscars last week. It was a bit chalky. Enjoyed watching it, enjoyed seeing it play out almost exactly as we kind of exactly as we said it would. No surprises there at all. Even in Best Supporting Actress where it was the closest odds this week. Simon it's one of the best weeks in the sporting calendar. We got some merch madness. And whether you love college basketball or not, no sports fan can deny it's a magical time of year. The playing games are today and tomorrow. Today is Tuesday and then there are 32 games between Thursday lunchtime and Friday at midnight. Today we're going to deliver coverage across the entire stretch including assignment says and a brass balls bed of the week. We're going to do that with the help of a special college sports expert returning guest. Before we begin, I like to thank Simon that we inspired what's about to happen and what I am about to announce because we are doing a Hard Rock Bet and Volume podcast network totally free bracket contest. That's right, a contest. The grand prize two night stay at the Guitar Hotel at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in sunny Hollywood, Florida. Florida's plus plus plus $1,000 in bonus bets to use on the Hard Rock Bet app. Just visit bracket.the volume.com to sign up and fill out your bracket than that's it. If you're 21 or older and a U.S. resident, visit bracket.thevolume.com to fill out your bracket before tip off on Thursday. You can earn your shot at our grand prize or or just click on the link in our episode description. Simon, you signed up. I signed up. I think my name is SOS Chad Sharper Square Chad if people want to follow along. All right, let's bring in our guest. We welcome back a man. He bets college football win totals all summer long. He bets mid major college hoops sides all winter and everything in between. He is a co host of the Big Bets on Campus podcast. You may remember him joining our national championship preview. He had a couple winners in that one too, including the under in the first quarter. He also gave out. Oh, that's what it was. I was just saying that off the top of my head. I wasn't even reading the script. It was a plus 450 first quarter parlay. He's Joshua Nunn, but everyone calls him Duck. Welcome back to the Show Duck.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Thanks for having me on, guys. It's a fun time of the season. With the NCAA tournament getting into full swing tonight, college football, regular season wins drop. So I'll be knee deep into that market here shortly. And yeah, for college athletics, it's a great time of year.

[Chad Millman]

Doc, you're the rare guest who, when I prop you up with the opportunity to talk about a big win. The last time you were on the show, you're just so focused on what's happening next, you can't even take a victory lap.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Well, this industry can be really brutal at times and it doesn't matter what you've done before, it's all about the next bet and the next series of events that are happening. And so I try to look forward to what's happening next so we can get people to the window.

[Chad Millman]

Duck, you're way too humble. You're taking this way too seriously. Everyone knows it's all just a crock of anyways, right, Simon? Am I right? What? What's with this guy?

[Simon Hunter]

He's locked in.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

All right, all right, guys, let's go back. National championship Indiana, Miami. Punt. Punt. First quarter under. That was me who gave that one out here on your show. And that's how it transpired. So glad we got that.

[Chad Millman]

Finally play into the type, man. Good lord. All right, speaking of, I love this week. This has been a magical week for years. I mean, shit, I wrote about this week 25 years ago this month in the odds. The entire reason I got into this business was because I loved tracking these guys and betting on college basketball and betting on March Madness. Simon, as a off season, better. Who now just counts your gold bars and calculates the cost and value of your Pokemon cards? How are you going to celebrate this week?

[Simon Hunter]

Just living at the book baby got, you know, luckily have a place still in New Jersey. And it's literally a walk to my favorite casino, Hard Rock. And I literally will just go in, get breakfast, honestly, at the casino. And that's how I'll start my day for the next about four days. So starting Thursday morning, just non stop action. And I think anyone can go back to like when I remember thinking back to high school or working a normal job in my 20s, it was a week of nothing, no work. It was just full on diving into basketball. And, you know, everyone's different. When I was a fan growing up, I really was just a Duke fan. So I knew the Duke conference, but every other conference I really didn't know. And this is like the week of crunching all the data. Right. You're learning all these guys names, you're learning all these different teams and it feels the same today where it's like I care about my team not so much other conferences and then this next week it's really just diving and trying to find the Cinderella stories. So yeah, is it better? It's, it's like the lazy man's research. But that's why we brought Duck on. Right. He's going to us the goods. Help us cheat and get some winners.

[Chad Millman]

Duck, can you bust open some myths for us? Does 125 matter anymore? Is 413 more important? Is 116 a better bet? Give us like where things stand now that the market has caught up to certain seedings and pairings where upsets tend to happen.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Yeah, I certainly think that there's some value on the fives now that gets baked in as everybody likes the popular 125 upsets. And I think concomitant to the landscape of college athletics today with the nil and the transfer portal, the rich get richer and the gap between the 1 through 4 seeds, let's call it, and the 13 through 16 seeds has never been wider. We see that this year with all of those games lined in excess of 13 and a half point spreads. So it really becomes difficult for these underdog teams even in mid major leagues. If it was the best team in the league that won the league in the regular season and won the conference tournament, I think this year more than ever we'll see that it's really going to be hard for these teams to compete and pull the outright upset. So if you're looking for upsets, you can find value in some of the high major teams that are perhaps underseated. A team like VCU or South Florida. I really think there's value this year in the 11 line, so I would look for upsets there. Some of the 12 seeds drew some horrific draws and we can get into that as we talk later on. But High Point and McNee State specifically schematically just drew really tough matchups. So I don't see a lot of value there. Maybe a team like Akron who could compete against a depleted Texas Tech team will have a chance. They can shoot threes and they're really athletic at the rim. I think Texas Tech will really miss J.T. toppin, but overall I love the upsets as much as anybody. The Cinderella runs are what makes this event magical. I don't see a lot this year with with any of the 12 through 16 seeds.

[Chad Millman]

I'm glad you mentioned South Florida Because I think I actually chose them in the Volume Hard Rock contest. And they have a coach who just gave the most incredible press conference after the team had made the tournament. I think this is the coach who he talked about. He was a foster kid, he was adopted. His father now has dementia. He's from the Bucke Buffalo area. That's where they're going to play in the first round. And for the first time ever as a head coach, this guy is going to have his father in the stands because now he's able to see him play because he doesn't have to travel the father because it's become so hard for him. I'm getting sentimental in my old age, Doc. So I'm glad you brought up South Florida. Am I get. Am I making the right connection? Am I telling the right story?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Yeah, and I think he's in the running as well for the Syracuse job, but he says he's remaining fully locked into what's happening at South Florida. It is a unique story and I think schematically they'll match up just fine with their first round opponents. So South Florida definitely has the motivation there, the uniqueness of their head coach and all the different things that are going on Personally, that, that just adds fuel to the fire, I would say, for the Bulls.

[Chad Millman]

All right, well, it looks like I'm going to get one, I'm going to get one of the upsets and I'll probably be at the top of the leaderboard in the contest. All right, for people who are listening to the show in the next 24 to 36 hours, duck, we got the playing games. Tell us like the, the best Bet for the four play in games that are happening over the next 48 hours. We've got UMBC, the magical team that upset Virginia, the 116, they're playing Howard. We've got Texas is playing NC State and then we've got Lehigh against Prairie View and SMU against, unfortunately, Miami Ohio. I'd love to get your take on whether or not you think they got screwed, but give us like your best bets for those playing games.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Well, the one I like here, Hard Rock actually has the best price out there. So if you like this play, go to Hard Rock and bet it. SMU minus six and a half is what I like here in the first four. Look, guys, I, I like Miami of Ohio as much as anybody. I firmly believe they deserved a spot in the field because they did not win their conference championship and they lost in the first round of the Mac title in Cleveland. I think they're appropriately placed in the first four in Dayton. Miami, Ohio could get overwhelmed a bit here by the athleticism of smu. Bupy Miller is very quick off the dribble. He can penetrate the lane and get to the rim. Jaron Pierre has made four or more three point shots in his last five games. The guys in the middle, Tooms and Sam it, they're just going to make it really tough for Miami of Ohio on both ends of the floor in the paint. I think SMU's top end talent is really superior to what Miami of Ohio has. Miami of Ohio is a good team, but they don't have really the history this season of playing against teams that are this athletic. Remember, SMU took Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor. It was a three point game with two minutes to go and they were tied with Virginia with 90 seconds left in that game. SMU has defeated Louisville, North Carolina, Texas a and M. It's just on a completely different level. We're going to have a lot of pace here. We could have upwards of 80 possessions in this game. Miami is going to have to have a real special performance from their shooters. Brandt Byers, Peter Suter, Scaljack, their point guard. I just don't think they're going to make enough threes here and I think that they could get destroyed at the rim. So I'm laying it with smu.

[Chad Millman]

All right. So basically you just told me everything I need to know about how you feel about Miami Ohio getting screwed up, being a Final Four play in, huh?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

I think they were appropriately. I mean, the metrics are poor, the strength of schedule is poor. I think they deserve to get in because of all the wins that they accumulated and they have 84 receipts about teams that they petitioned to play that told them no. So I think when you win as many games as they did and they were unblemished throughout the regular season, yeah, they deserve a spot at the table. They had done nothing to detract from the talent of that team, but now that they're in the dance, they had to line up against smu. I just think it's a tough draw. I think SMU is too athletic.

[Chad Millman]

Simon, the Dukies, your Dookies minus two set plus 275 to win it all. Arizona, Michigan plus 350. Florida, defending champ plus 650. Houston, defending runner up plus 900. Those are the five teams under 10 to one to win it all. Simon, do you still feel like Duke is a team that you root for in spite of everybody else? Or do you feel like Duke's. I feel like Duke's entire perception has changed with John Shire from Coach K.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't think so. I feel like, I don't think people

[Chad Millman]

hate him as much.

[Simon Hunter]

No, they do. Like if I rock this hoodie out, someone's gonna talk shit to me. Especially in a sports book. It's, it's a given. Like Duke has its haters and it should. Right. It's, it's almost coming up on 50 years of just people hating that brand. Right.

[Chad Millman]

Look back 50 years.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. It's crazy how long it's been that Duke has been kind of relevant in the basketball sphere. So yeah, I, I, I like this team obviously for a different reasons. Maybe the general public will like them because it's an ex players kid in Boozer. And he is a good kid by all accounts. I mean, Duck wouldn't talk it better than me, right? He knows college basketball than me. He's the type of kid though, I think of in college basketball. It's like he's peeking right now, like, this is, I don't know how to be in the NBA. He might never be better than he is right now. But Boozer's style of game is so perfect for college and he's just so polished. He reminds me a little bit of Marvin Harrison Jr. Like he was just so ready for the next league that like, he's perfect for college. Right. He's already kind of learned all the stuff from his dad NBA wise. Right. The stuff he can do Duke for me though, I love to get Duck's opinion on it. They're just in a brutal, brutal conference here, or I should say side of the bracket. So I don't really, I don't think those are good odds to bet them. I, I feel like that's the worst bet that you gave out then. I'm shocked there. The odds on favorite, they, they do tend to choke. So I, I am shocked just in that, in that, in that bracket. So I'm interested here, Duck. Are there any, any, anyone, anyone in that top 10 that you like that's worthy of a future here?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

I mean, I think all of the teams have an excellent chance to at least achieve getting to the Elite Eight. I think we have a clear top four with the number one seeds. Houston's very good, but their defense is not the exceedingly elite defense that we've come to know and love under Kelvin Sampson. I think technically Florida probably would have what would be considered to be the easiest path. But I like Duke's path at current I, I think you get fewer of the stronger Big Ten or Big 12 teams. You get the probably the most overseeded number two in UConn. I think, you know, at this point in the season the value has pretty well been squeezed out if you're looking to bet the favorites. But Duke is very, very good and we saw them really have three solid performances in the ACC tournament against good conference foes and they're not at full strength. And if they're getting their guys back and healthy, you're not going to get to the rim against Duke. Boozer can live at the line. He's got three post moves that he can just make you look like a fool on if you're to trying. If you get them on the block, they can accrue really effective paint touches. They play a good inside outside game. Duke's really buttoned up and they're going to be tough to beat.

[Simon Hunter]

I think I needed to hear that. I needed to hear that. I was trying to be very, very ho hum about it. But yeah, I'm, I'm obviously all in on them. I just don't think the odds like even Duck said, I don't know if the odds are that great to be betting on right now. You kind of missed that window. I always am all about the random. The random guy, right? There's always a breakout guy coming to Marge Madness. Is there, is there a team that has a guy that me and Chad are not thinking about that could carry his team two or three games are just a random team that, you know, no one's talking or thinking about right now?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Well, I mean, how far in the weeds do we want to get? Because Cal Baptist has a guy, Dominic Davis, that could score 40 points against anybody. The problem is that they can't get.

[Daniel Cormier]

That's what I want.

[Simon Hunter]

I want to watch that kid.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

They can't get to the paint and he's going to have to do a lot himself. Now they're playing just 45 minutes down the road from where they're based out of and Kansas has to fly across the country to San Diego. So that was could be real interesting. I mean Acuff should score 40 points against Hawaii. Hawaii drops their coverage. They don't switch. Acuff's going to have a lot of one on one matchups for Arkansas. They he could score 40 points in that opening round game against Hawaii.

[Chad Millman]

Everyone loves Acuff. Coach Cal, wherever he goes, finds the talent that will blossom, that will grow, that will dominate at the college level and become the Everybody is talking about future all star NBA draft pick one and done kid. It's kind of amazing how he does that. And for years, you know, who knows what was happening behind the scenes. And there have been plenty of stories and there's speculation and there's been, there have been penalties against coach Cal for recruiting and all that kind of stuff. But geez, from UMass to Memphis to Kentucky, this guy can freaking recruit, recruit, recruit. And it's been so fun this year to watch coaches like Cal and Kelvin Sampson who have been decrying nil and complaining about nil. And Doug, I don't know if you have an opinion on this, the way they're framing it as in a disadvantage for schools like theirs when they've been say, excellent recruiters for 40 plus years. To me, that's a blast to watch. Total blast to watch.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Well, I mean they've been, they've been using some of the nil techniques long before NL was even a thing. So it's a disadvantage now because everybody else is now able to do it. That's really what it is.

[Chad Millman]

It is. It's pretty amazing. All right, Thursday's games, 16 games, tipping off between 12:15 and 9:15pm Eastern. It's a whole do not disturb day. What are you eyeballing right now? Duke?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Yeah, I've got three games that I want to talk about. So I like Wisconsin's team. Total over 87 and a half. The Big south is on an own five against the spread run in the NCAA tournament. High Point plays very fast. They press, they trap, they gamble defensively. And that will be major trouble against the Badgers. If you look at Wisconsin, Greg Gard has these guys playing as fast as any Wisconsin team that we've ever seen. And they just made 15 threes against Michigan. They get to the stripe, they get to the rim. Wisconsin scored 91 points against Illinois twice this year, 97 against Purdue, 97 against Michigan State and 91 against Michigan. Those are all top 10 defenses in the entire country. I think that Wisconsin puts up a huge point total here. We're going to get a lot of pace. Wisconsin has played a little faster since they've been battling some injuries in the front court. High Point will score and that'll continue to have Wisconsin squeeze the ball hard as we get into the last five minutes of the second half. But this game should fly over the posted total and Wisconsin should approach 100 points here.

[Chad Millman]

Who else?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

So let's talk about Duke real quick. Sienna, really? They only play six guys. They live in the mid range with their flex offense and they will not be able to get to the rim against Duke. So when you look at the Saints, they're going to have to consistently hit 12 to 15 foot jumpers. They don't want to shoot a lot of threes. Duke's going to take away what they want to do. Offensively, the team is shorthanded. We really saw the style of play in the ACC championship game for Duke. Low and slow. They grinded out possessions. There was very little pace, absolutely no fast break. Siena is going to have to eliminate any ability to crash the boards and they're going to have to get back on defense. So you're going to have one and done possessions. Missed shots are going to lead to them getting back. Duke is probably going to play this at a pace of about 62 or 63 possessions here. And if you're the dukies with the injuries that you've battled late in the season, I think that the idea is to get this to a 20 point margin and get Boozer the hell out of there and grind down the second half. When you get to the under eight it should be nearly taking shot clock violations the rest of the way. So I like the under at 136.5. I've got this one about 78 to 52 type of game. And Sienna's offense is really, really going to struggle. They just don't have shooters. They shoot threes less frequently than about 85% of all other teams at the Division 1 level. And they have one guy who averages in excess of two made three point shots per second game. They're just not equipped to match up schematically with what Duke wants to do. So we're going under. I like Sienna's team total under as well.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so Wisconsin team total over Duke. Sienna under Sienna. Team total over with Sienna. You mentioned three. Was Sienna team total under that other bet or is there one more?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

One more. We're gonna go Idaho, Houston under 1:36 and a half. Kelvin Sampson is a great under coach with a total under 140 and with his team listed as a favorite. You know, Idaho ran around a little bit in Big sky play and it was kind of fun to see them go up and down. But in the non conference against unfamiliar opponents, it was a slow burning grinder for Idaho almost every game. The Vandals are not going to be able to go up and down with Houston here and they know that it's going to be a slow paced game. Idaho is going to struggle to shoot the ball. I think Houston's length is going to give them some problems. Kelvin Sampson has no ego to try to accumulate style points or run up the score or try to score a high point. This is going to be one where Idaho has to slow the pace down. Houston already plays at a slow and methodical pace. Houston's defense is really going to step up here. I think Idaho could struggle to break 50 points in this one. So full game Idaho Houston under 136 and a half.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so Wisconsin team total under Duke under 136 and a half. Do you have a floor for where you wouldn't bet Duke under anymore?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

I'd say Duke under is good to about 134. Wisconsin team total we're going over.

[Chad Millman]

I'm sorry, Wisconsin team total over. And then do you have a floor for the Houston Idaho under?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

This one shouldn't move too much. In fact, if anything, people will see some of the scores for Idaho late in the season and this may end up upticking a point or so, but as long as you're over 135, I think we're okay here.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so again, on Thursday, if people are filling out their brackets, including the volumes, free bracket [e-mail] volume.com any upset alerts again for Thursday or words of warning you'd give listeners viewers right now for Thursday brackets.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

I mean, the upsets are great and it's fun to call the ones and if you can pluck the right one, you can look like a genius. But I would just say not to get too upset heavy in the first round. Again, the gap between seeds one through four and say 13 through 16 is wider than it's ever been. All of these point spreads are lined in excess of 13 and a half for a reason. It's going to be really hard to see one team pulling upset, let alone multiple. But I do think there's value in the 11 line. So if you look at a team like Virginia Commonwealth or South Florida in these Thursday games, I think both of those teams will have a chance to win the game on the court.

[Chad Millman]

I think, Doc, if I had to look at my bracket that I submitted into the Volume Hard Rock BET Challenge, I might have chosen more upsets than I have in 50 plus years of doing bracket challenges. So I'm glad to get your advice on this. All right, quick word from our sponsor at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock BET Florida Sportsbook. It's tourney time and my favorite thing to do this time of year is to fill out my brackets. So join me in the Volume Bracket contest presented by Hard Rock Bet. The grand prize winner scores of two night stay at the Guitar Hotel at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida, plus a thousand dollars in bonus bets to use on the Hard Rock Bet app. All you have to do is head to bracket.thevolume.com and fill fill out your bracket. That's bracket.the volume.com to make your picks. Once your bracket is locked in, it's time to hit the hardwood on the Hard Rock Bet app. All tournament long, Hard Rock Bet is rolling out daily dancing boosts featuring a live profit boost and a parlay profit boost every single day. That's more ways to shoot your shot and cash in with boosted odds. Plus, Hard Rock Bet is giving out $25 bonus bets throughout the tournament if a team you bet to win or cover hits a buzzer beater. If you haven't joined Hard Rock Bet yet, now is the time to check in the game. New signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets max 50 bucks. That means if you would have won $100 on your bet, now it's 200. That's how you start March Hot. Don't sit on the bench. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and let's get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1833 playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call call 1-809 with it in Ohio, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia.

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[Simon Hunter]

you thinking for Friday Duck? Any best bets for us?

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Yeah, we'll talk three more here. So Long island in Arizona this is a dead nut under 152. Liu is going to truncate this pace down. Rod Strickland, who played a lot of years in the NBA is actually a very good coach in the nec. He's really built the Sharks team on defense and trust me when I say these guys cannot shoot. They don't want to shoot threes. And really, outside of Jamal Fuller and Malachi Davis, there's not a lot of scores for liu. They're very thin and they do not use a lot of bench minutes and so it would be wise for them to trim the pace down and play at a slow, methodical pace. I really feel bad for LIU because they're going to get out athleted by Arizona. But Arizona shoots three point shots so infrequently they rely on getting to the rim, getting to the line, hitting shots in the mid range. So we're not going to get a barrage of three point shots either way. And then looking beyond this game for Arizona, with a potential matchup against Utah State or Villanova looming, I really just feel as though this is going to be one where the Wildcats are up by 20 at half. They play a slow pace in the second half. Liu is going to struggle mightily to score 60 points in this game and I don't think we see Arizona put up much more than 80 or 85. So 151 and a half 152. This is a, this is an under game for me.

[Chad Millman]

Rod Strickland had many great years in the NBA, but let's give respect to the DePaul University Blue Demons, where Rod Strickland and Dallas comedies were a dynamic duo that were upset, I believe. Doc, I don't know if you're a historian like, like I am in the Wayback Machine. I feel like it was first or second round when they were a probably a top two seed. Rocket Rod and Dallas comedies were a glorious, glorious mix.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Just a hair before my time. But that's, that's, that's what I've heard about them. Yes.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, Jesus Christ, you young motherfuckers. What about words of warning and. Oh, wait, you said you had a couple other ones for Friday other than LIU in Arizona.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Yeah. So let's get into Wright State versus Virginia. If you look at how Wright State profiles offensively, they have to attack the rim. They don't shoot a lot of threes. They want to get to the line. They want to get good looks from inside. They really try to procure the paint touches. Not going to happen against uva. I mean, just look what those guys in the middle did against Duke. 14 block shots between Uganda and Johan Grunlow. Wright State shoots fewer threes than anybody else in their conference and they, they just don't. They're not equipped with shooters. They have one guy who's made in excess of 45 threes this season. It's going to be a real struggle for the Raiders. They've really truncated their pace this season and I think Virginia is going to match at a slower operating tempo in this game. Wright State is really, really going to struggle to find a way to score the ball here. So I'm taking their team total under 63 and a half. And you know, if you're looking for a little bit of a longer shot here as far as an upset is concerned, again, Kansas has to travel all the way across the country. They're playing Cal Baptist. Dominic Davis can score 40 points at any time and I think that they will succeed in getting him him some open looks. If you've seen his highlights just from this season. I mean, he is making defenders look like absolute fools and he can create space and, and get good looks. Kansas does have the travel factor. There is an element to having to travel and play in a foreign arena that you're not familiar with and that could really affect Kansas offensively. There's been a lot of personnel issues with Kansas this year about who's playing, who's not playing. Peterson's been in and out of the fold and it's just, it's one where I think offensively for ku, the operation could look just a little bit jerky. Cal Baptist is going to really trim down the possession count. They do play sound defense. They defend well without fouling. I could see this game being closer. I also think it's an under game 138. Cal Baptist is really going to have to have a superlative effort from Dom Daniels. Otherwise they're not going to score a bunch of points. So I could see it being close. I like the under.

[Chad Millman]

Before we get out of here, I feel like we're doing a disservice if you don't give us your Final Four and your national champion.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Well, my Final Four is absolutely subject to change and honestly I'm a little bit undecided. I think you're probably looking at chalk. I think it's one or two. In fact, I have an exotic bet that I really like here. If you look at the total, some of the seeds to make the Final Four, you can find a book out there that has over under nine and a half and I think if you look at the under, that's probably a way to go. I see at least two number one seeds making it to the final four and then you put in a number two seed in there. If it goes 1, 1, 2 3, you're good. 1, 22 3, you're under. So if you look at the total sum of the Final Four participants, I think it's under nine and a half. That's a little exotic. I'm still undecided on my Final Four. I think Duke is a very strong team. I think Arizona has a path. I think Virginia is a team that's capable of making a run. I just don't know if they're going to get all the way to the and win the regional final. So it's hard for me to answer who I have in my Final Four yet because I'm still filling out the brackets. But I think it's going to be jock.

[Chad Millman]

Those of some of us are significantly bolder and more ignorant. I believe I picked Yukon to win it all. I might be a homer there and

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

I'll give one more too. There's another exotic out there. Total number of wins accumulated by participants from the WCC. So you got the Zags in there, St. Mary's and Santa Clara. That total is three and a half. I think the Zags alone are capable of winning at least three games in this tournament. And Santa Clara and St. Mary's will both have opportunities to accumulate at least one win. So when you look at the totality of that, I think it's more likely than not you're going to get over three and a half wins from WCC participants in this tournament.

[Chad Millman]

Simon, did you want to add anything else?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, for Simon says. I'm going to take a little info from Duck here and put it to some use for some of our listeners. I want to play a game.

[Chad Millman]

Simon says.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm definitely betting Wisconsin minus ten. Minus ten and a half at Hard Rock. Oh, now I'm minus nine and a half. I, I love Ben Big Ten schools. I think last year in round one, Big Ten started 8. 0. They're just, it's just a great conference for basketball. They're just so well coached. And like Doug, talk about this Wisconsin team, they're really good. Like if they have their A plus game, they could easily win this game by 20. So I, I like the fact that especially now that it's under 10, you can get it nine and a half at Hard Rock.

[Chad Millman]

All right, Simon says Wisconsin minus 10. Simon says, presented by Hard Rock. Bet is minus 10. By the way, I forgot to give our brass balls our brass balls bet of the week for March Madness, the NCAA tournament. It's going to be TCU.

[Simon Hunter]

You know what it takes.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

It takes brass balls.

[Chad Millman]

TCU plus 120 in the first round against Ohio State. I think we're, we're giving people something to watch early. Doc, give us a take on TCU at Ohio State and what our brass balls. Bed of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bettis.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

I think TCU is a very strong team. They took Michigan to the wire earlier this season. They accumulated some really good wins and got very hot down the stretch in Big 12 play, which is a very, very tough competitive conference. This year. TCU almost won the conference and had a real chance late to defeat Kansas in the conference tournament. They've got late wins over Texas Tech. They took Houston to the wire. I think TCU is a strong team and a team that I have also picked to advance out of the first round. So brass balls play. I like TCU on the money lineup with the plus sign in front of their name.

[Chad Millman]

Duck has a set. I love it. Josh Nunn, AKA Duck Big bets on campus podcast. Thanks for coming on the show, educating everybody who might not have been paying attention to college basketball until this very second. Don't forget to sign up for the volumes free bracket [e-mail] volume.com Coming up on Thursday, part two of our NFL win totals. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Until next time.

[Simon Hunter]

Love you.

[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Seven seconds to go. Three Pointer Legends Double Honor.

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[Daniel Cormier]

This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. Power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either made the move or you missed a moment. That's why you need a network that's just as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless, you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in the action from the walkouts to the knockouts. Now that's a total power move. Make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless Store. Additional terms apply. See totalwireless.com for details.

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[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

Hear that?

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[Josh Nunn (Duck)]

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