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- [00:00]
Sean Zarillo
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
- [00:05]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.
- [00:31]
Simon Hunter
We are truly in the dog days of summer, my friend. We got lists coming out, we got home run derbies, we got a little World cup left, and thank God, two weeks from now, we get guys back in camp with actual football. But until then, I'm enjoying these last few days.
- [00:49]
Chad Millman
I did notice the other day ESPN put out its top 10 quarterbacks list. And so I know, I looked at it and I thought to myself, I don't want to digest it. I want to make my own list so I can surprise Simon. What did you think of the Home Run Derby?
- [01:09]
Simon Hunter
I loved it. I did end up going, but didn't go in. We have like a thing called Stateside right by the stadium. I thought, all right, I'll be able to get a discount because no joke, I have a ticket from the. The last time they were here, it was at the Vet. I saw almost positives like Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire in that home run derby. It was five bucks and we were in the lower bowl.
- [01:32]
Sean Zarillo
Jesus.
- [01:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I was looking for just nosebleeders. The cheapest I could find was 900. I was like, I'll just. I'll just watch.
- [01:39]
Chad Millman
Are you kidding me?
- [01:40]
Simon Hunter
Not kidding. 400 level, Chad. 400 level. They were looking for 900. So I was like, all right, I'll just, I'll watch it stateside. And it was electric. I mean, I don't know about you. I thought it was going to be Schwarber. So, yeah, definitely was fired up. And it's. It's again, Philadelphia's unique place. It's all about where they put these locations. But the fact the fans are so into it, even if the setup was stupid by Netflix, because I know on tv, honestly, it wasn't that enjoyable of experience for me. I don't know about other people, Netflix wise, but overall the atmosphere, I thought was so electric. I really feel like it came through on tv. So it was fun. I. I really enjoyed that home run. And I don't know if it's the swings, you know, whatever it was, but, yeah, usually I don't. I don't really get that far up for it, but I feel like I had to go because it was in my city and end up being a pretty cool experience.
- [02:27]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I think that the best thing about it are the Philly fans and how excited they got for Schwarber and that Schwaber got to the final round. And, you know, the fact that it took just a monstrous blast for Schwarber to lose. I loved the atmosphere for it. I. I could, like. I don't care that much about the Home Run Derby. I have found that more and more, my impartial fandom is about atmosphere. Like I'm in. In the World Cup, I'm rooting for England because I know that the clips on social media, if England wins or loses in the finals, are going to be at such peak ends of the spectrum, meaning it will be the absolute worst devastation or the high of highs because of England's fraught relationship and tortured relationship with international soccer. That's what I'm rooting for. And so I'm rooting for great, genuine, emotional fan moments more than I'm rooting for something on the field.
- [03:42]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I don't. I don't. I don't want to expose myself too much because all the pain that might come my way, but Chad knows. I. I am losing my mind.
- [03:49]
Sean Zarillo
Right.
- [03:49]
Simon Hunter
About England. I know you've been loving saying Wonderwall after every game.
- [03:53]
Chad Millman
Yes. Oh, my God. It's that. That's what I'm talking about, though, like, or when they're singing hey Jude to me. This is a magical thing for social media, is its power to share the joy of fandom, and I think it does it as well as it does anything else. And it's. Honestly, it's why I got into the Phillies. Like, the Phillies fans rooting for Trey Turner when he was struggling after his first year in free agency is the exemplar of how social media can inspire fandom. And it shares the traditions and what it means to be a fan of these teams and globally. And I think it inspires more people to be interested and be fans. And I think that's amazing. I'm being totally. I'm totally, like, being sentimental. I am not being typical sort of sarcastic here. Like, I just think it's. It's awesome. So I want. I want that fandom reaction.
- [04:49]
Sean Zarillo
The.
- [04:49]
Simon Hunter
The COVID part. Right. Memory just in covet how we just. We always knew how much we cared about fans and them being there.
- [04:56]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [04:56]
Simon Hunter
Until Covid, you were just like, oh, my God. It literally makes up, I guess, 60, 70 of the experience. I don't know how to explain it, but it really does that connection, watching games with other people and. Yeah, for the World Cup. I mean, maybe I'll save it for our next show because it's. There's just so much, Chad, that Americans would understand between England and Argentina. I don't really know who America's rival would be, I guess, in sports, I guess Canada, we kind of hate them because of hockey and other things like that. But Russia. Yeah, Russia. Right, right, right. But this. This is like next level. Like, you know, these people have killed each other over an island, if you want to look into all that. So, yeah, it's Falklands. Yeah. Yeah.
- [05:41]
Chad Millman
So I'm old enough to remember the Falkland Islands.
- [05:43]
Simon Hunter
You really? Yeah. I don't know if many Americans really remember that, but it was. It's something I know they still hold pretty close to their chest. And, yeah, I. Chad knows I am someone that. I won't make my feelings too hard on the Germans here, but a lot of Germans after World War II went to Argentina, and that's why, as an England man, we forever will kind of hate Argentina in many ways as well. So the. The dream scenario for this World cup, we all know it's a little fixed in so many ways. England, Argentina, Spain, France. Couldn't ask for much more than that, Chad. So between that and home and Derby, like you're saying, it's been a great, great fan experience. It feels like these last couple weeks, we are.
- [06:23]
Chad Millman
Listen, you know, I'm a huge Tottenham spurs fan, and so because of that and because of Harry Kane's legacy with Tottenham, I am all in on England. That and my Anglophile nature and the fact that my wife and I met in London when we were students. I just have a lot of affinity for English culture. So we're all in on England. We're going to hopefully be singing Wonderwall after the finals on Sunday and certainly after this next match against Argentina. But we were just talking about the Home Run Derby. Simon. Way back in March, we dove into Major League Baseball betting, the Major League Baseball season from a betting perspective with our old pal Sean Zarilo from the Action Network, one of the sharpest, most obsessive baseball betting minds anywhere, co host of the wonderful Payoff Pitch podcast. He looks. Simon. He looks like an angel. For Those watching on YouTube, it's only because he's sitting in his backyard. Because the construction in his house was so loud, we sent him into the backyard. Shawn Zurillo, welcome back, buddy. You listen, we're going to get to this. In the show, you gave out some bets that are trending towards winners. So I'm thrilled for you. And I don't, don't get into them yet because we're going to talk about them on the show. But well done, Shawn Zarillo.
- [07:49]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, enjoyed the Home Run Derby last night. Really like the new format. I think they got to stick with that format. Maybe get rid of the magenta colored baseballs because that seemed to be a little bit difficult for the hitters to pick up on potentially considering nobody homered on them until the final round. And then for Jordan Walker, if you've been able to catch online. So all of the extra baseballs, all the bonus baseballs were supposed to be magenta. The home run that Jordan Walker hit to end the night was white. So there's a bit of controversy surrounding the fact that Jordan Walker was not being fed the correct baseballs during his little run in the bonus round, but completely agree. Love the atmosphere. Thought the Philly fans were electric. Them booing Contreras and Walker throughout their final rounds against Schwarber was absolutely electrifying. Love the format. Just absolutely hated the Netflix broadcast. Seemed to have no feel for the rules. Seemed to have no feel for the moment. There was no leaderboard on the screen telling you how anybody was doing. Definitely a lot of kinks to work out on the next blitz front. The boxing ring at second base kind of matching their cringe energy from the the Giants Yankees opening day when they had like the trolley carts and the subway car out in left and right field. So I think Netflix doing a little bit too much on the movie production end. Just leave the game as is. You don't need to do too much, but give us the information that actually helps make the event a little bit more informative as you're watching it.
- [09:09]
Chad Millman
Not a lot of the lovers of the Netflix broadcasts so far in baseball for Giants, Yankees or for Home Run Derby. So look, they've got, they got to figure that one out. But listen, we're not talking about broadcast here. We're talking about betting. And it is the MLB All Star Game tonight, annual rite of passage, the unofficial midway point of a very long baseball season. Sean, I'm so glad you're here. Let's talk about the actual baseballs because in the spring you told us about differences and variations that could be possible in the balls. You're always on top of the balls Major League Baseball uses over the course of the season, different balls, they change the balls. Catch us up. Where is, where did the ball stand right now?
- [10:01]
Sean Zarillo
I'm not going to go around telling people that I'm always on top of the balls. We will find a different way to phrase that. But it does seem like we've had a change to the baseballs in 2026. And that now makes five times, I believe, in the past seven years where we have evidence, we have people slicing into the baseballs physically proving that they're different. Now, Major League Baseball came out a few weeks ago after I started putting out articles investigating it further. You know, Saris was kind of the one who initially drove the conversation on it, and then I took it a step further in terms of my research. But essentially the balls are flying further. You can only explain away about a third to a half of the further carry due to weather. The biggest difference and the biggest, most obvious like change that immediately stands out in dome stadiums. So you can filter out most of the weather impact at dome stadiums. There is still some of a weather impact as temperatures increase, the humidity increases, etc. But in the past five years or so, as the weather warms up in dome stadiums, you only see an increase in ball flight by about a foot and a half. The maximum we've seen in any year was three feet. This year it's jumped nine feet. And it happened in the middle of the season at about the end of May, right around Memorial Day, the ball essentially overnight started flying nine feet further. And you can't tell me that the weather warmed up enough to have caused a 9 foot increase. That would be like a 30 degree temperature increase. About 15 temperatures is equivalent to 4ft. But what you can track, and I talked about this in the preseason, is the drag coefficient data which Major League Baseball makes readily available on baseball savant.com essentially the range of outcomes of drag this year, and each point of drag is worth four feet of ball flight. The range of drag this year has fluctuated by as many as four points, four tenths of a point, what have you. So essentially that's the difference between 6, 16ft plus or minus from one baseball to the next. And it stabilized essentially now in July, below the lowest point it hit last year. So the baseballs are obviously different. Major leagues baseball's excuse for this or their way of explaining this away was to say that the oils from inside of the baseball had leaked out, had caused some sort of yellow staining on the outside of the ball. But essentially they're saying that yes, there's an issue. We tested these balls independently, we didn't find anything specific wrong with them and therefore we consider them to be viable for play. But what we are seeing is on the field, catchers are tossing out way more balls. You know that they're being given by the umpire. They're throwing them out of play because they don't think the quality is up to standards. We know that MLB bought Rawlings in 2019 to gain better control over the process of manufacturing the balls, and clearly there's still going to be some variance from one ball to the next because they're hand sewn. But there has never been this much variance within one particular year. So the main theories are here. Baseball started the year with the baseballs from last year. As the season has gone on, they started mixing in more baseballs that were meant for this season and we've seen drag decreases a result and now kind of settle back in a neutral point because we're using all the baseballs that were meant for 2026. But the other main takeaway from MLB statement is the fact that, hey, we realized this was a problem. We alerted all these teams in February. They didn't say whether they alerted sportsbooks in February, they didn't notify the public in February, they just started talking about it in June. But the other upshot is they said that they're going to be cycling in another new match of baseballs by the end of this year, if not early next year. So we already have a built in excuse when MLB does change the baseballs and wants to mess with the baseballs in the postseason, which they've been caught doing in the past. They've already built an excuse that they're going to be changing the baseballs again in September. So I don't know how those baseballs are going to play. Presumably they will be less bouncy than the ones that we're currently seeing in play, but the upshot is the balls are traveling about another five feet further than you would expect just based upon the weather increases as you go into the season and as a result the home run rate and run scoring has been at its highest level since 2019. From taco night in Tulum to sushi in Tokyo, every bite is rewarding and pulse worthy with MX Gold's four times Membership Rewards points at restaurants worldwide. Wherever you dine, points are piling up. So bring your friends along for your next course because it's not all about the posts, it's about the company and the memories. How can Gold from Amex sweeten your next food moment?
- [14:49]
Simon Hunter
Learn more at American Express
- [14:53]
Sean Zarillo
Terms and Points Cap apply.
- [14:55]
Chad Millman
Simon do you know what player who had been slumping terribly went on a Ruthie and tear around the same time. The baseballs seem to be flying out of ballparks at a prodigious rate.
- [15:10]
Simon Hunter
I have no idea.
- [15:11]
Chad Millman
But is it Phillies, Pete Crow, Armstrong? Sean, how much do you think PCA's explosion had to do with those balls? And have you seen a change since sort of the balls have started to drift back a little bit?
- [15:30]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, I don't think it's necessarily for PCA specifically and some of the Cubs players specifically. You know, you've seen Dansby, Swanson go on that crazy run of homers and ribbies. They played a lot of games at Wrigley recently with totals of 12, 12 and a half, 13 and a half, where the wind was blowing out aggressively. The temperatures were in the 90 degrees, I would say in July. The weather has actually been more temperate throughout the country than it was in June. I never expected to become a meteorologist, or at least an amateur meteorologist in terms of doing my job handicapping baseball, but I have to pay attention to the temperatures and the weather everywhere on a daily basis. I think July has been a little bit more temperate than June was. But I do think the Cubs at home have had a lot of really good offensive weather that has helped pca. I also think PCA is just a very streaky player who's going to go through a lot of big hot streaks and cold streaks throughout his career just because of the swing decisions he makes, the lack of end zone contact that he can have at times. He has crazy power, crazy speed, crazy athleticism. But the bat on ball skills are going to fluctuate a little bit, and I think that could lead to streakiness. But overall, you know, you are seeing home run per fly ball increase, home run rates increase. And the way that I can say, hey, this isn't validated by the bounce. I shouldn't have said the bounciness of the ball because that's not actually what's happening. That was. That was an incorrect phrase that I just used. It's not that the balls are bouncy. Specifically, it's not that the balls are bouncy. If they want to make the balls bouncier, they would increase the core of the baseball, which is like essentially the middle of the baseball, like the core of the earth. But it's spelled Cor. That's how bouncy the ball is off of the bat. And what that would do if they wanted to make the balls jumpier, you would see it show up in exit velocity figures. The balls would be coming off of the Bat hotter, which in turn would make them fly further. That's not what's happening here. What's happening is the balls are being hit just as hard, if not less hard than they were in June as compared to May and April. But they're flying further in the air. The resistance on them as they're carrying in the air is not there as much. And I've pulled several examples where balls were hit. Same batted ball trajectory, exit velocity, distance path on the field, same weather in those games. And some balls from April, May, in the same temperatures as they were in June, were flying 40ft further, 45ft further in June. And you know, there is some things that you have to quantify for like backspin versus front spin. There's things that you necessarily show up immediately in the stack ass data that could slightly affect that, but it's been too dramatic in terms of the impact. And again, just reverting to the indoor parks thing in the dome stadiums, the Ranger Stadium in particular, Globe Life park had become over the past couple of years the most pitcher friendly environment in baseball. It had gone from being a hitter friendly park when they won the World Series all the way back to on the level of T Mobile park in Seattle. You know, the run scoring environment in Texas for the past two years had basically been 15% below the major league average right around that time that I pointed out that May 25th time Texas started seeing a huge increase in fly ball distance. The unders which had hit there like a 65% clip, not kidding, it had been like 65% for two years because the park factor keeps fluctuating so dramatically there that the market has not been able to catch up to how low it got there. And unders were just hitting at a ridiculous clip. Every total was like a run too high. Now it's come back and it's become an over park very aggressively over the past six weeks. It's been one of the best over parks in baseball because either the baseballs are different or they turned off the humidor there or a combination of both. And that is the other point I didn't emphasize earlier. I think there's a possibility based on the fact that I'm seeing different data and different ball flight data from different parks, MLB standardized hudors in parks and I believe 2021, I think there is a chance that they allowed some of these teams to turn them off in secret. I think that's very much a possibility given how the ball does not seem to be getting that extra carry at all. Parks across the across the board, uniformly, it does seem like even in the dome stadiums, it's actually flying a little bit further than you would expect outdoors. So I do think there's a chance on top of the baseballs being different, that there may have been a change in humidor policy either from MLB or from some of these teams internally that just said we're not going to use the humidor like we're supposed to. And as a result, they're getting increased offense in those parks.
- [20:01]
Simon Hunter
From our last show, when you talked about baseballs, I knew a professional group that went out and bought baseballs from like 20, 25 years ago off ebay and they cut all of them open and try to look at if there's differences from balls right now and home run balls people are catching right now and then selling online and I should be in contact with them. Their, their theory about it was kind of interesting about how the baseballs have changed in the last 25 years. The inside of them, I should say. But I just love that they did it because of our show. It's like, you know, they got a couple thousand dollars to burn. Why not buy these all old balls to see if there's actually a difference? But yeah, you nail interesting theory.
- [20:38]
Sean Zarillo
Most interesting theory about the steroid era is not that it was just guys roiding. It was that guys were roiding and they juice the baseballs, which led to the dramatic increase in home runs. The Barry Bond 70 home run season was probably not just the byproduct of Barry Bonds taking all of the HGH known to man and having his head swell like three times the size that it should, but also that MLB was probably introducing juice balls during those seasons, which is why so many players were hitting 30 home runs, 40 home runs. So that is. That is an interesting thing to look at in hindsight. And if they were buying balls from 25 years ago, that does align with the steroid era and when they may have been juicing them. So that it's very interesting.
- [21:19]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah. Again, I just love how crazy people are where it's like they listen to the show and I was like, I love the idea of doing that. But yeah, like I was saying, just you came on, you gave it a bunch of great stuff. Obviously, you know, we talked about Detroit, the pitching staff, all of it. How are you feeling right now with your expectations on bets you made in March?
- [21:39]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah. In pretty good positions on the awards markets gave out both current rookie of the year favorites have Dylan cease at long odds for AL Cy Young Have Gordon Alvarez at long odds for AL mvp. I think, you know, with regards to the Tigers specifically, that you bring them up. I've been adamant that the Tigers shouldn't sell. The Tigers got 11 games, 10 games below the division leader in the AL Central. I think they've closed the gap now to four wins at the All Star break. Tarek Scuba went on. The IL came back for them. It seems like they're still shopping him. I've maintained that the Tigers should not sell. And if they do not sell, I think they're a viable contender in the American League right now. The AL Central winner only projects to finish with around 83 wins. The AL west winner only projects to finish with around 84 wins. So not only is there a path back for the Tigers in the division, there's a path for the Tigers still to get the number two seed in the American league behind the Al east winner. Because like I said, either the Al Central winner or the Al west winner probably and get more than 85 wins. So whoever wins that division is going to have a very good chance at finishing with one of the top two seeds and getting a buy. And as a result, you know, if you're telling me you're going into round two and Tarek School, but is going to be starting two out of your five games in that series and then three pitching in three out of your seven games at a potential ALCS and World Series, Tigers remain a very viable contender. I just think they're having the inverse season that they had last year. Last year they got out to a huge lead, collapsed it, lost the division, ended up beating the team who overtook them in the playoffs. This year, I think they started out extremely poorly, everything went wrong, and now they're finally picking up steam like they did a few years ago. It's one of the best second half teams in baseball a couple of years ago when they went on a big run. But I think they are basically having the inverse season that they had last year and they will be there, in my opinion, in the end if they don't sell Tarek Skubal, the team I like from a futures perspective, there's not many the team that I still like from a futures perspective, the two teams, the brewers and the Rays, because these are teams who typically do not add come trade deadline time, I think they will both be adding this year, not only because they've kind of alluded to the fact that they would publicly. The Rays also have a new ownership group. The brewers have the number one farm system in baseball. And they've just locked up two of their top guys, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara, whom they both brought to the big leagues. They also have the number one prospect in baseball and Jesus, Matt A. So anybody else in that farm system I think is fair game for the brewers to trade and I think they may go out and add pieces. I have some concerns right now slightly because Brandon Woodruff seems like he got hurt last week. Jacob Mizarowski seems like he may be dealing with some arm soreness. And if you're going to be betting on the brewers to take down the Daughters in October, you need at least three of you need Mizarowski, but you probably need at least two of three of Kyle Harrison, Brandon Woodruff and Logan Henderson as well. Would love to have all four, but I do think the brewers are going to add at the trade deadline just public projection wise. The projections do not like them right now they say the Cubs are the value bet in the NL Central. I have brewers positions I'm pretty comfortable with. Gave them out at 8 to 1 in the NL a few weeks ago. I think that is a team, though, that you may be able to bet come playoff time. Just make sure everybody's healthy. The team who I think is going to get better in the next couple weeks definitively is the Rays. The Rays, like I said, have a new ownership group they've never been willing to spend in their history. They have a deep prospect pool they're willing to trade from and we're probably going to lock out next year. It's an unfortunate reality, but we're likelier than not to lock out for at least part of the 2027 season. And I think any of these teams who are in contention are going if I'm going to lose a year prospect development anyway in the minor leagues, right? If I'm not going to see these guys until 2028 at best, why wouldn't I trade them now and cash them in when not only do I not know what they're going to be, but losing that year of minor league development next year could be absolutely crucial and devastating because we saw it affect a lot of prospects during the COVID year. So I think the Rays are going to add at the trade deadline right now I make them about 13 to 1 to win the World Series, 5 to 1 to win the AL pennant. You can get as high as 17 to 1 and plus 550 respectively. I think with Aaron Judge's injury news coming out at some point during this week, you'll know whether Judge is going to be back soon. Whether it's going to be longer until he comes back. If it's longer until he comes back, I actually think the Yankees are going to be more conservative at the trade deadline and not push. If he is going to come back sooner, I think the Yankees are going to be more aggressive and try to add pieces around him. So maybe the timing is the Wait for that. Aaron Judge Injury news before you pile on potentially to the Rays, AL pennant and World Series bets, but I think this team is going to look a lot better in a few weeks than it does right now and the American League is completely wide open. I like whoever comes out of the NL between the Braves, the Dodgers and the Brewers, I think, or the Phillies. I think any of those teams will be a better option in the World Series than whatever the AL produces. So I'd probably be targeting pennant bets as opposed to the World Series bets. But the Rays are the one team I'm really keeping a close eye on right now. I've been on them all year, thought they were underrated all year, but now I'm actually starting to take them more seriously as a championship contender.
- [26:39]
Chad Millman
Let's do a quick word from Hard Rock and then I want to do an up and a down with Zarilla. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock BET Sportsbook. If you haven't tried out Hard Rock Bet yet, there's no better time to get in the game than right now. We're down to the final four in the world's biggest soccer tournament. By this time next week, we'll be waiting four more years for soccer's biggest stage to return. So don't spend spend it wishing you were part of history. Hard Rock Bet is a top rated sportsbook app built to Viva la Copa. Check out their promos like no goals, no problem. If you bet on a team to win in regulation and the match ends scoreless after 90 plus stoppage time, you'll get back a bonus bet up to $250. So when the goals go missing, your bet doesn't every match day. You can choose your own offer a profit boost to juice your winnings, or a no sweat bet for a little extra security. So if you're ready to try your first bet on Hard Rock Bet today, sign up and you can score 150 in bonus bets. Just place a five dollar bet and if it wins, you get not only your winnings but also an extra hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and don't let the Cup's biggest games pass you by. Roll with us. Go. Go with us. Hard Rock Bet payable and bonus bets Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-PLAY-WISE in Indiana. If you were someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it in Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call 1-800- my reset gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey and Tennessee. All right, Sean Chicago White Sox Surprise darlings of Major League Baseball. Yeah, Paul Skeens struggling, I think more than anyone would have expected. Give me your why the White Sox are up and can they maintain and your what's happening with Skeens and will he turn it around?
- [29:08]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, the White Sox. Chris Getz has done a phenomenal job at making sure there's as few weaknesses as possible on a roster. There's a lot of ways you can build teams when you're trying to go from dregs of Major League Baseball to league average. Being a.500 team. One of the easiest ways to do that is just to make sure you don't have bad players. But on top of that, their player development has been pretty tremendous because Colson Montgomery was a guy who a lot of people thought the swing was not correct. A lot of prospect evaluators thought he was going to struggle immensely at the big league level because he just couldn't figure out the swing. He was really struggling through the early part of last season, eventually figured it out, hit 21 home runs in about 70 games, and this year he looks like he's maintaining a pretty similar pace in terms of projecting out to like a 35 or 40 homer guy. Getting Murakami there was obviously the big addition that has really propelled them up, but they ended up missing him for a large part of this year and still played pretty well without him. So I'd say the player development, the GM all working in concert have done a phenomenal job lifting this team from the bottom of the league to average. But that said, I think this is an average team and in terms of betting them to make or miss the playoff, right now it's definitively miss. I make them about minus 130. You can get them an even money to miss the playoffs. So I would probably be fading The White Sox at this point forward, I don't think they're a team who's going to add at the trade downline and start giving up prospect pieces for a team that is not necessarily a World Series contender yet, but obviously like the way they're trending. I think once you see Hagan Smith come up to this roster, once he's ready, you can start taking this team even a little bit more seriously next season because pitching is their biggest need and he looks like he's a potential frontline starter for them if he could figure out the command piece. But overall, if I'm betting anything on the White Sox right now, it would be to miss the playoffs at around even money to minus 120. But this team definitely is the juice. I've watched them all year. There is some magic there on the south side, and I don't necessarily love taking a stand against them at this point, but given Detroit's, you know, ability to come back in that division, Cleveland's ability to come back in that division, the projections love the Minnesota Twins, who are sitting right around.500. But the twins, we know, will not be adding at the deadline given their ownership troubles over last offseason, the fact that they didn't spend anything in free agency. So I think there are three teams who could take down the White Sox and eliminate them. And as a result, even money looks like a pretty good price to bet against them. The Pirates are the opposite. The Pirates skins looks injured, you know, in the spin rate on skiing for seam. Fastball is declining in virtually every start, which is a pretty big indicator of injury. Bubba Chandler has not developed this year. Mitch Keller gets worse in the second half of every season, but their lineup is a lot better than it has been in previous years. Their bullpen is pretty capable. I just don't necessarily see, other than Connor Griffin returning from injury, a lot of young contributors coming up and helping this Pirates roster. Seth Hernandez, who's maybe the top pitching prospect of the Minor, seems like he's still a couple years away. So the Pirates aren't going to add pieces. The Pirates may have a couple of banged up pitchers, but the projections like them to make the playoffs. Right now I make them about +250 and I think you can get them at +350. Let me actually just pull up that actual number. The Pirates, I make them 190 and you can get them as high as 250. So they look like a potential value about to make the playoffs. The other team I'd point out who stands as the biggest playoff value bet right now. And that's the best market. If you're looking for markets to dive into that have the biggest edges, positive and negative, you know, teams you want to fade from a playoff perspective and bet the no teams you want to bet the yes on. The biggest market for edges right now is make or miss playoff by by far way more than division or World Series. That's where I'd focus my money and attention. If you're looking to build a portfolio right now, the team that shows the biggest edge, either yes or no, is the Orioles. To make the playoffs, I make them about +285. You can get them at 4 to 1. I believe they're sitting just a couple of games off of the pace to two and a half games, two games off the pace in the AL wild card race. And that is a team I could see surprisingly adding, despite the fact that they're sitting below.500 right now, they just have an owner who wants to be aggressive, who wants to win. Now they had the Pete Alonso signing this offseason. Pete seems like he's finally heating up a little bit as the season has gone along too. But yeah, the Orioles to make, the Pirates to make, the White Sox to miss, and then maybe the Guardians to miss as well. I would choose between the Guardians and White Sox, but everything else that I show value on is something that you have to lay like minus 300 or higher on. I'm trying to. I'm trying to stick in the more reasonable plus money price ranges here in terms of analyzing these bets. But yeah, I'd say the biggest, the biggest edge. If you want to talk about the pure biggest edge, if you want to parlay piece Padres to miss, I make minus 600. That's minus 380. But that was a bet I gave out in the preseason. I gave out on this show And I think minus 110, minus 150. So certainly have gained value there. Gained value on. The Astros missed the playoffs in pretty good position on a lot of these bets. I just need my Mariners and Tigers divisional tickets to potentially come through. That would really bring everything together.
- [34:20]
Simon Hunter
Is there any bets like for our listeners to get on, like, you know, player wise, you know, Cy Young awards, anything MVP wise that you like next half?
- [34:29]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, I'd say the biggest value bet in any of the awards markets is probably. It's probably Bobby Witt to win Al MVP at about 5 to 1. I make him plus 385. This is just going to be an interesting vote because Jordan Alvarez is not going to be the AL war leader. And typically war the war leader and vote share correlates at like a 70 clip. But the one thing I highlighted in terms of my preseason analysis and I gave out your Don in the preseason at 351 I said or 40 to 1. I highlighted the fact that OPS and OPS ranking is the one thing that can kind of override wins above replacement. So Whit is probably going to finish with eight wins above replacement. Jordan closer to six and a half 6.3. But Jordan is going to have a thousand ops. Whit is going to have an.850 ops. Neither of them are going to be on winning teams. I think if Whit was on a winning team, that may be a little bit of a tiebreaker for him. But I do think looking at the history of voting, if Witt has a two win lead and wins above replacement, he's also less injury prone than Jordan. Jordan has been very injury prone throughout his career. So over the final two and a half months I'd say he's substantially likelier to get hurt than what is. So I think what it 5 to 1 would be the value bet among all the awards markets right now. The guy who's popped up consistently for me though throughout the season is Parker Messick to win Al Rookie of the Year again. I gave out McGonagall on this show. McGonagall is in a great spot. He's currently like minus 250 in the market. I make a minus 260. So it's not an actionable bet. But I do show value on him. If McGonagall gets hurt at some point the rest of the way everybody's assuming kind of that Okamoto from the Jays or Murakami from the White Sox is going to win that award. Messick projects right now as the wins above replacement leader behind McGonagall and I make him about 12 to 1. You can get him as high as 30 to 1. So you want a small stab. Parker Messick is he's going to get the innings. He threw about 140innings between the minors and majors last season. He's going to finish around 190. I think he's one of the best pitchers in the American League. He's going to be in the AL Cy Young mix as well. He's not going to end up winning the award, but he'll be top five, top six in Al, say Young. And I think if McGonagall doesn't win a Rookie, he's probably my favorite candidate, even above all the hitters that you have in the Al. J.J. weatherholt, I gave him out in the preseason as well. At 6 to 1, he's the NL favorite. I make him minus 200. You can currently get him at minus 155. So Weatherholt, I would lay the juice, he stands to have a big WAR lead at the end of the season. He's might already be the best defender in baseball, which is shocking because Bryce Turing, who plays his position for the brewers in his division, has been one of, if not the best defender in baseball for a few years. Weatherholt, same position already maybe has overtaken Bryce Durang. So as a result, even though Weatherholt has kind of comparable offensive stats, the guys like Carson Benge or other hitters in the nl, his defensive quality is like boosting him up dramatically. And WAR correlates even more strongly to Rookie of the Year than it does to mvp. So Weatherholt, Parker, Messick would be my choices. If I'm placing Rookie of the Year bets right now, Wit would be among the AL mvp, NL mvp, and then the Cy Young markets. I think Whit would be the only guy I'd pull the trigger on there because I like Joe Ryan in the al, but I think he's likely to get traded from the Twins or at least likelier to get traded than end up still on his team. So yeah, that's where I'd go with my money from a player futures perspective at this point. And then the Rays would be the team I would target from a team perspective.
- [38:04]
Chad Millman
Zerillo, we've gone an entire show haven't mentioned the team with the best record in baseball. The Dodgers have 61 wins despite injuries to Ohtani and others. Before the season began, you came on the show and said this is a team that is built to win in the playoffs. They don't really care about the regular season. And here they are dominating what was supposed to be a competitive NL west and crushing in the National League. Is all this moot because it's the Dodgers World Series to win anyways?
- [38:45]
Sean Zarillo
Maybe. Like I said, I think that there's one team in the NL who can take them down. It's probably the brewers, because the brewers, by the time they got to the playoffs last year, Mizarowski wasn't available to start for them. They didn't have the pitching quality, the starting pitching quality that they have this year. But the Dodgers, to your point, have not played their best team and they still have the best record in baseball. They have almost, you know, they have half of their playoff rotation on the il. Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell have given them virtually nothing this year. Ohtani is dealing with an injury right now, but again, because they have such a big lead in their division, there's no lead. No need to push him. He did get an ejection or he is getting an injection over the All Star break. That is something to really keep a close eye on because the Dodgers could shut down Ohtani till the playoffs if they really needed to. If they felt it was necessary to preserve his health for the postseason, they would shut him down. And that would open the door for PCA or Juan Soto to win the NL mvp. And the PCA Juan Soto debate would be the exact same. That would. That would actually make it interesting because the PCA Juan Soto debate is literally the exact same debate as Bobby Whitten. Yordon Soto has the 1000 plus OPS. He's going to finish two war behind PCA. PCA is going to have the.850 OPS but have the big wins above replacement lead on Soto. But the difference between the NL and the AL is that PCA is not a winning team. Soto is not. Neither of the AL guys are on winning teams. So I think the winning team thing might tie break for PCA if it came down to those two guys. But it's worth noting because Ohtani right now skipped the All Star Game because he's dealing with an injury. He's getting an injection and there's a non zero chance that he could miss significant time the rest of the way. He may still win NL MVP even if he doesn't play another game this season. That's how good Shohei Ohtani is and all the stats he's put up to this point. But it is worth noting. But yeah, the Dodgers are slow playing it for the postseason. They're probably going to make additions. I don't think they'll get Tarik Scubal. Even though they have one of the most loaded farm systems in baseball. They just have enough pitching coming back that they may not even be their biggest need. They would probably be looking up to shore up the bottom of their lineup, maybe get a better second baseman targeting Marte, something like that. But yeah, this team's loaded. They haven't even played their best team yet. I think the brewers could potentially take them down. I'm not sure who I like in the AL to take them down. If it came back to the Dodgers in the World Series, which it is likely to. But yeah, it all could be moot. But you know, there's, there's other ways to bet it other than just betting. It's the World Series market. And that's why I'd probably recommend betting AL pennant odds as opposed to taking a team from the AL to win the World Series. Because you're going to have to get past the demonic daughters lineup and rotation.
- [41:31]
Chad Millman
All right, Sean Zarilo, great update. Let's continue with our trend pattern of nailing these preseason picks. Simon, we're coming back on Thursday. We're bringing back the Bundo to preview the World cup final one. We'll hopefully be talking about England in the finals. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us in Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Thursday. Love you. And hit in the air to deep center.
- [42:11]
Sean Zarillo
McCutcheon to the wall. And gone Jed Jerko.
- [42:15]
Simon Hunter
Now that is well done.
- [42:18]
Sean Zarillo
Oh, wow.
- [42:19]
Simon Hunter
You got a distance. Yeah. That is a PNC park signature play right there.
- [42:28]
Sean Zarillo
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.