Sean Zarillo (42:00)
Yeah, Kyle Schwerber is back on the list this year. RBI 35 to 1. I made him 21 last year for RBI Leader. He's 35 to 1 this year. It was 50 to 1 last year. So I'm fine betting it at 35 to 1 still. You know my general takeaway this year, I didn't project these out last year. I haven't projected these out in previous years. I found that there's much bigger edges in general on the milestone props as opposed to category leader props. Now the odds aren't going to be as enticing a lot of the times, but you can still find 9 to 1, 10 to 1 shots on guys to get 200 plus strikeouts that I think should be closer to plus 450 or plus 500. So the general takeaway and analyzing the futures market this year was much more value in the milestone and ladder props than there is any outright leader props. The biggest edges I found on out like outright leader props was Ohtani RBI leader at 14 to 1. Now I did mention he may sit a little bit more this year but in terms of projections he is above Aaron Judge for RBI home run. I think he's also five to one. There is value in that number two. Obviously the, the more long shot leader props are a little bit more interesting. Stolen base leader Chandler Simpson is five to one. I like him. But Victor Scott at 25 to one I think is a good bet as well. You know there's, there's a number of like correlated player portfolios that I built. I think the, the most interesting market maybe because the, the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins. I should say the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most. You know, compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs, like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random. But Logan Webb at 20 to 1 from Revolver 30 to 1, George Kirby at 50 to 1. I think those are all great bets because what I found doing research into pitcher wins, the correlation between the wins leader is just as high as the correlation between the guys who finished highest in quality starts. Wins just kind of come down to luck and how many runs your, your offense scores for you. Quality starts isn't even the best measurement of a good start for a pitcher, but it is a good measurement for putting your team in position to win and giving your I mean you could have a 450 ERA for the season and still have a quality start. It's three runs and six innings. So quality start isn't necessarily the best measurement of like you're a good pitcher, but it is a really good measurement for you gave your team a chance to win and if they gave you four runs or three runs, you're probably going to get that one if you threw five innings. So Webb 20 to 1, Valdez 30 to 1, Kirby 50 to 1. That might be my favorite grouping of like long shot bets for pitcher wins or just in general for any category because again like the the range of outcomes for pitcher wins is so compressed and all those guys are or 20 to 1 or better. You also do if you dead heat as well, you end up splitting the odds. So if two of them win, you'll end up cashing both tickets. You'll just split the odds on both of those. So I don't. I think that's a, that's a pretty interesting approach. The guy added most recently and I think there still may be value out there from a player prop perspective or from a player word perspective is Kevin McGonwell of the Tigers. He's my favorite for a Rookie of the year right now. It's unclear as to whether or not he's going to make the Tigers opening day roster. It seems like at worst he'll be up within two weeks. They're going to maybe delay the service time, you know, manipulate that. The thing that people, a lot of people have not realized in analyzing this, if you finish top two in ALE in Rookie of the Year in either league, you lose the year of service time anyway. So if you're going to wait two weeks to bring up a guy to gain that year of service time and then he ends up finishing first or second rook of the year, then you waited two weeks for nothing. So I think McGonagall is going to be on the Tigers opening day roster either playing shortstop or third base. He's not like a Bobby Witt 3030 shortstop where he has like insane power and speed. He is the 2026 archetype that I am most looking forward to analyzing and trying to capture the value of going forward. He's a swing decision monster. Swing decisions is the ability to swing in strikes and not at balls and to swing at good strikes and not close strikes. The swing it strikes in the heart of the zone and to not swing at balls or close pitches and to put quality of contact on those pitches. That is the process stat that I think people overlook the most now or would like to capture the most in terms of figuring out offensive quality. Because yes, like you could have a great season, you know, or less great season just by nature of variance. And like your bat was, you know, a tenth of an inch away from like making perfect contact. And as a result you hit into an out instead of hitting home run, right? Like this year you may get all of the best outcomes as a result. Next year you may get the wrong side of all those outcomes. And one year a guy hits 40 home runs, the next guy next year he hits 20. You know, generally, like if you're projected to hit 30 home runs plus 10 or minus 10 on either side of that is an acceptable range of outcomes for a player. The swing decision guys, I think are much safer investments, but also much safer offensive teams and process and swinging at good pitches to swing at and avoiding bad pitches to swing at. When we get into the playoffs, when you watch the wbc, you could really see it with the quality of plate appearances the guys were taking and the teams that were more effective. Italy was, Italy was probably the best example, the reason why Italy made it to the final four of the wbc. If you watch their bats, they were spitting at balls and they're swinging at strikes and that was like the entire offense philosophy. And I know that sounds really simple, but it's really hard to do. Not chasing pitches is really hard to do. And swinging at pitches that are in the zone every time they're in the zone is really hard to do. And then making sure the bat is on the ball and hand eye coordination is another layer, layer on top of it. That's really hard to do. And the point is that Kevin McGonagall is like the best prospect we've ever seen at those skills. The power and speed are pretty good, but he's more of like a 20, 20 guy at best. He's not, not going to go 30, 30 or 40, 40, but he's probably going to hit.290 and have a really high on base percentage because his swing decisions are so elite. So he's six to one right now for Rookie of the Year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now ale Rookie of the Year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made. So that's why I'm bringing it up. J.J. weatherholt in the NL, similar case. Probably not as good as McGonagall, but another really good swing decisions guy who may not have, like, the aesthetically pleasing athleticism that you would want, but a very safe floor.
