Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square - MLB Season Betting Preview & Opening Day Best Bets

Date: March 24, 2026
Host: Chad Millman
Co-Host: Simon Hunt
Guest: Sean Zarillo (Action Network MLB Analyst, Payoff Pitch Podcast)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the 2026 MLB season from a bettor’s perspective. Host Chad Millman, co-host Simon Hunt, and guest Sean Zarillo discuss major league trends, the impact of AI on sports betting models, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ dynasty, smart strategies for futures and award markets, and actionable Opening Day wagers. The episode mixes advanced analytics talk with accessible baseball enthusiasm—essential listening whether you're a sharp, a square, or somewhere in between.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Excitement for Baseball’s New Era

• The Vibe: Both hosts express renewed excitement about baseball due to the World Baseball Classic and recent positive changes in MLB, namely the pitch clock and a more youthful, fun style of play.
• Pitch Clock Impact: Simon highlights how the pitch clock has “saved” the sport for fans and bettors—shorter, more watchable games are better for everyone (05:46).

2. AI in Sports Betting: Overhyped or Gamechanger?

[08:55–15:57]

How AI Is Changing the Game

• Sean Zarillo:
  • "The capabilities that AI give you and the tools that I could build out now... have kind of taken my stuff to a different level." (08:55)
  • AI is now an everyday part of Zarillo's workflow: speeding up manual tasks (like line shopping, odds comparison), and allowing him to build tools ("I can now do in hours what used to take days" — 10:26).
  • While AI isn’t dramatically more predictive yet, it enables the automation and integration of complex adjustments (e.g., accounting for the Rockies’ home/road splits) (10:34).
• Simon Hunt:
  • Simon took an AI class to get ahead: “If I had a team of 10 guys, I could easily let go five of those guys because I don't need them for all the work AI can do in minutes.” (12:57)
  • AI's biggest impact is time-saving, but there's wariness: “It's hard to trust AI completely, even if it tracks well.” (13:30)
  • A warning: As big sportsbooks use AI, betting edges will get smaller and markets sharper (14:00).

Notable Quotes:

• "Adapt or die." — Sean Zarillo (15:01)
• "Right now... if you know how to build models, it's the cheat code." — Simon Hunt (15:05)

3. Dodgers Dynasty: Why the Gap Is Only Widening

[15:57–24:38]

• Dodgers are +220 to win the World Series—by far the lowest odds, and their win total is set at a whopping 102.5. (15:57)
• Ruthless Roster Management:
  • Zarillo: "Their greatest advantage is how they treat their roster and how they manage it... It’s always about increasing their probability of being the final team standing." (16:48)
  • Comparisons to other dynasties, emphasizing they don't waste energy to win individual games but keep stars fresh (21:43).
  • Dodger’s infamous use of the IL (injured list) to manage arms and lineup ("They're great at manipulating the rules—to ensure guys are healthy for the playoffs." — 21:43)
  • The organization combines "the smartest GM group with all the money," leading to sustained excellence (23:41).
• Competitive Imbalance?
  • Zarillo and Simon agree it's not just the Dodgers' spending, but other teams’ lack of investment that widens the gap. (19:00)
  • "If they win three in a row in this era, you're talking about an all-time great team, not just a dynasty." — Sean Zarillo (20:41)

4. National League Futures & Surprise Teams

[25:34–28:51]

• Phillies-Mets-Braves: Most expect at least two of three to make the playoffs along with Dodgers and Cubs, but several wildcards remain (25:34).
• Braves Warning: Lost three of five rotation pieces to injury/Suspension; Zarillo is "low" (projected at only 85 wins) (25:34).
• Pirates & Marlins Sleeper Value:
  • Both teams fighting for playoff spot; Pirates actually invested in roster (26:36).
  • Smart Angle: Rather than betting Pirates to make playoffs (~+300), bet their manager to win Manager of the Year (15-20:1)—highly correlated, better payout if that outcome occurs (28:20).
  • "There may be a much better way to bet it that is so highly correlated to that outcome that you're probably better off betting the other thing, if not both." — Sean Zarillo (28:40)

5. The Ever-Changing Baseball: Balls, Drag, and Betting The Unknown

[34:13–41:37]

• MLB’s manipulation of the baseball is real: Different years saw different ball compositions, impacting run/home run environments (34:40).
  • "MLB was putting a super juiced ball into play, the Goldilocks ball"—especially for Aaron Judge’s 2022 HR chase (34:51).
  • Meredith Wills, a physicist, physically cut open game balls from multiple years and found evidence of multiple ball types in the same season, including playoff and Yankees-specific “better” balls (37:54, 40:44).
  • Conspiracy talk: It’s possible MLB caters better balls to big-market teams, though Zarillo is cautious on this theory (39:39).
• Key Insight for Bettors: Closely track early-season environment using Baseball Savant’s drag data; the home run/over/under environment can change quickly when MLB swaps baseballs mid-season (34:40).

6. Best Bets for MLB Futures & Player Awards

[42:00–48:41]

• Best Player Futures:
  • Kyle Schwarber for RBI leader (35:1), still value despite lower odds than last year (42:00).
  • Ohtani for RBI leader (14:1) and HR leader (5:1) are also value bets.
  • Stolen base leaders: Chandler Simpson (5:1), Victor Scott (25:1).
  • Pitcher Wins: Particularly random and compressed—Logan Webb (20:1), Framber Valdez (30:1), George Kirby (50:1) for wins leader because luck and run support drive outcomes (43:25).
• Rookie of the Year Picks:
  • Kevin McGonagall (Tigers, 6:1 for AL ROY): “He’s a swing decision monster... the 2026 archetype I am most looking forward to analyzing.” (44:45)
  • J.J. Weatherholt (NL), great process hitter with high floor (47:55).
• Swing Decisions: The new process stat Zarillo is bullish on—players who swing at good pitches, avoid bad, and maximize quality contact drive modern offense, a trend to look for in player bets and team projections (44:59).

7. Actionable Opening Day Bets & Team Totals

[52:15–54:32]

• Twins (+130) vs. Orioles:
  • Zarillo: “Public projections have Twins at 77.5 wins, I have them at 70.6, but with Joe Ryan pitching, they're more like an 85-win team... Twins are being under-projected for Opening Day. I’ll be betting the Twins.” (52:15)
• Brewers-White Sox Under 8.5:
  • Zarillo: “I make that total about 7.8, so I’ll look to the under.” (52:15, 54:32)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you have not seen Ohtani in person… It’s like a superhero playing a sport.” — Simon Hunt, on the global impact of Ohtani (06:38)
• “Adapt or die.” — Sean Zarillo, on AI and the future of betting (15:01)
• “Their greatest advantage is how they treat their roster… It’s about increasing their probability of being the final team standing.” — Sean Zarillo, on the Dodgers (16:48)
• “When Manager of the Year, if either [Pirates/Rays] make the playoffs, the managers are finishing top two and probably winning.” — Sean Zarillo (28:28)
• “MLB was putting a super juiced ball into play, the Goldilocks ball... not only have they been caught red-handed, but we also don’t know what ball they’re going to use and play the following year.” — Sean Zarillo (34:51)
• “Kevin McGonagall is like the best prospect we’ve ever seen at [swing decisions].” — Sean Zarillo (46:41)

Timestamps by Segment

• 00:00–03:41: Ads and Open (skip)
• 03:41–05:30: Baseball in the Best Place Since 1994
• 05:30–07:53: Modern updates: Pitch clock and Ohtani’s impact
• 07:53–08:55: Baseball’s momentum & WBC
• 08:55–15:57: AI in sports betting—how Zarillo and Simon leverage it, future considerations
• 15:57–24:38: Dodgers dynasty, market dominance, and roster management
• 24:38–28:51: Finding value in NL futures, surprise teams, and creative correlated betting (Manager of the Year)
• 34:13–41:37: The science and drama of MLB’s changing baseballs, impact on betting
• 42:00–48:41: Top individual player futures, swing decisions, rookie of the year analysis
• 52:15–54:32: Opening Day bets—where the best actionable value lies

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive, forward-looking MLB betting preview blending advanced analytics, market insights, and actionable picks. Key takeaways include:

• Embrace change—whether pitch clocks, AI, or new process stats like swing decisions.
• Don’t undervalue correlated futures (e.g., Manager of the Year for surprise teams).
• Track early-season ball flight and enviroment—MLB’s ball changes can swing betting edges.
• Watch for "smart" organizations’ edge in roster management (Dodgers) as a signpost for future bets.

Must-listen for both baseball fans and sports bettors ahead of Opening Day 2026.