← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - MLB SEASON BETTING PREVIEW: Opening Day Best Bets, Futures & More
00:44:51
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- [00:00]
Sophie Cunningham
This is an I heart podcast.
- [00:02]
Sean Zarillo
Guaranteed human.
- [00:04]
Sophie Cunningham
This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Okay, Arby's just casually pulled up with a deal that feels a little too good.
- [00:10]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
They've got this new meat in three box for $7.99, and honestly, it's stacked with Arby's quality favorites in a way that feels kind of ridiculous.
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Sophie Cunningham
For that price, here's what you're getting inside. You pick one sandwich, the classic roast beef, the crispy chicken sandwich, or the crispy fish sandwich.
- [00:24]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
Then it just keeps going because also comes with melty mozzarella sticks, crispy curly fries, and a peach cobbler roll, which is a little sweet.
- [00:32]
Sophie Cunningham
And you get a small drink to round it all out. So, yeah, it's called Meat and Three, but you're actually getting five items, all for only $7.99.
- [00:39]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
Pick the sandwich you want, make it your own, and get it your way.
- [00:43]
Sophie Cunningham
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- [00:51]
Daniel Cormier
This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of of ufc. Power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either make the move or you miss the moment. That's why you need a network that's just as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless, you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in the action from the walkouts to the knockouts. Now that's a total power move. Make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless store. Additional terms apply. See totalwireless.com for details.
- [01:27]
Julian Edelman
This is Julian Edelman from Dudes on Dudes with Gronk and Jewels. All right, real quick. Take a look at yourself right now.
- [01:33]
Verizon Ad Voice
Why?
- [01:33]
Julian Edelman Ad Partner
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- [01:34]
Julian Edelman
Nothing's wrong. You look like a guy running on three hours of sleep and vibes.
- [01:39]
Julian Edelman Ad Partner
Okay, yeah, I'm tired, kind of cranky, and very thirsty.
- [01:43]
Julian Edelman
Congrats. Those are some of the potential signs of mild dehydration. And I bet your last bathroom break showed you another sign your body might be throwing you a penalty flag.
- [01:55]
Julian Edelman Ad Partner
So what's the play?
- [01:56]
Julian Edelman
Call Liquid IV hydration multiplier. One stick in water helps hydrate faster than water alone.
- [02:04]
Julian Edelman Ad Partner
Okay, but where's the proof?
- [02:06]
Julian Edelman
Liquid IVs. Clinical studies. Not just a guy. I know real science. Results you can trust.
- [02:14]
Julian Edelman Ad Partner
Well, take a look at me now. Liquid IV is officially part of my daily hydration routine. Pass the Firecracker Popsicle flavor.
- [02:22]
Julian Edelman
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- [02:39]
Public Investing Ad Voice
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc, SEC Registered Advisors. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures welcome to
- [03:41]
Chad Millman
Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional Better, my co host, Simon Hunt. Hello Simon.
- [04:06]
Simon Hunt
Chad. It's in the air, brother. Spring. We survived a long winter. We made it.
- [04:12]
Chad Millman
We're going to talk baseball today and we're going to have one of our favorite guests on the show. And I know he's one of our favorite guests because when we first started doing this show together, you looked forward to him coming on because of your not so secret uber baseball fandom. And I feel like I've become a bigger and bigger baseball fan over the past few years. You and I both. I've fallen in love with the Phillies just because I love the vibe at Citizens bank. And you and I have gone to games there together, a couple games actually. And having visited my kid in Philly at Drexel and going to the games, there's just Philly's a phenomenal baseball town and then the World Baseball Classic. I don't know how much of it you watched, but it was so good and so intense and so competitive and so emotional. It just got me so amped for baseball season in a way that like, I feel like it will maintain momentum long, long into the season. Especially since, who knows, this may be the last baseball season for a while if these, you know, fuckers can't get out of their own way and stop this labor negotiation. So I am pumped, brother.
- [05:31]
Simon Hunt
Yeah, the baseball. I think it's fair to say this is the best position the league has been in since the Barry Bonds, Mark
- [05:40]
Chad Millman
McGuire, Sammy, best position they've been in since they screwed it up and canceled the season in 1994.
- [05:46]
Simon Hunt
No, no, it was still good. It was still good after that. They just, they did hit a lull there for a little bit though. I think we can all agree. And especially it was the old age of don't throw your bat, don't celebrate, don't talk. And I think everyone was just like, dude, that, that cannot be how baseball is going to be. And you've seen, to me, the World Baseball Classic, not so much this year, but the past years, they really did embrace especially the South American country celebrating. Right. And that to me is carried over to the league that youthfulness, that fun, which is something we've been missing. But the game changer, I don't know if we're going to talk about today is definitely the pitch clock. Like that has, yeah, totally changed the sport. Saved it, where as a purist, I hated it. I love the mind games of a guy taking 30 to 40 minutes, 30, 40 seconds to throw a pitch. But I have to agree with it. It's, it's better like in July, if I can knock out a baseball game in two hours and it's a good baseball game with four or five runs per team, that's, that's a great day. Rather than it taking four hours, which people will be shocked to know. Red Sox, Yankees, if it was on the big network like espn, that was minimum. It could be a one nothing game. It was gonna be a four hour game. So yeah, the pitch clock, I'll give credit to baseball. They have really figured out and the biggest top, I mean we're going to talk about right now about with, with our guys, Zarillo, the Dodgers, Otani, perfect match to me, they just him leaving the Angels going to the Dodgers, what it's done for the sport, it's, it's the best. He is, must see tv, like Trout. Trout was great. You know, say what you want. He was a great player. You have people listening to this. You have to go see Ohtani in person. If you have not seen him hit or pitch, if you have an opportunity, he comes by your city. You need to see this guy. It is. It's like seeing Judge in person. It's like a superhero playing a sport. So, yeah, I'm fired up for this season, Chad. I really do. There's a couple of teams I really like. And yeah, the World Baseball Classic. I'm like you. It got me fired up. I know we lost. It's painful still. Venezuela, congratulations. But yeah, it's baseball. It's just, it's in such a great spot right now.
- [07:54]
Chad Millman
I will listen. Opening night is tomorrow night special Yankees Giants game exclusively on Netflix. But today we get to talk about all of it, including the Dodgers dynasty, including any changes that will impact the game that will impact bettors. He's always one of our favorite guests because he comes in with very, very specific takes on where we can find some real value across the board. One of our favorite baseball betting experts, one of the smartest guys working in media anywhere. Featured on stage with me last year at Sloan's Sports analytics conference. Co host of the Payoff Pitch podcast. One of my earliest hires with the greatest cover letter I've ever received as a hiring manager from the Action Network. Welcome back to the show, Sean Zurillo.
- [08:56]
Sean Zarillo
Thank you guys for having me. Appreciate the intro chat. I can't believe it's been a year since we did that Sloan conference. Feels like two years ago, but also, I can't believe it's been a year. So I don't know. I'm a completely different person. The capabilities that AI give you and the tools that I could build out now on top of my pre existing models have kind of taken my stuff to a different level, I feel like. So I'm really excited. Wow. I mean, I was implementing that stuff during the WBC kind of quietly behind the scenes. I've had a model that has been built out and kind of refined and constantly updated over five years. But this stuff that I can layer into it now and the tools that I could build out and beyond it are pretty incredible. We had a question about AI at that Sloan conference and the capabilities that it was giving people. I said, I'm not a coder, so it's given me the ability to code and add things that I didn't think I had the tools to do. But even a year ago, I literally said, I don't know how valuable it is right now. Maybe in a year from now, it'll be in a place where I feel like it's something I'm using every day. And it's. It is a year from now something I use every day. So. Yeah. All right, well, listen, explain that.
- [10:02]
Chad Millman
I know, I know we want to get into it. I know Simon is thinking a lot about this for the off season, for. For his stuff, but explain a little bit because I also have spoken to a lot of bettors who have said they're using it to help sort of make everything faster, but they're not using it to make their models more predictive. It's not, it's not at that level yet.
- [10:26]
Sean Zarillo
So I've found in terms of. There's a lot of things that I do that were manual that I can automate that for. Sure. Like speeds me up.
- [10:34]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [10:34]
Sean Zarillo
And that, that I could see absolutely for most people, like, you know, being a time save. I also for line shopping. I hate line shopping, especially for futures. When you're betting 100 plus futures takes up so much time, I can literally copy and paste all the lines from all the different books. Give the AI my projections. Claude. Claude. I found super valuable. Give Claude my projections. Give Claude all the odds from like 10 different sports book and say, hey, find me where my biggest edges are. And then I can go and double check it and sure enough, all of it matches up and I can say, give it me. Give me the best odds, give me the second best odds, what book they're at. So like line shopping, where it used to take days, I can now do in hours, you know, and I can have a fully built out spreadsheet of like, here's all your edges, here's where all of the best odds are to bet those things. And I can have it grade them based on the edge size, et cetera. So yeah, things that used to take me days, I can now do in hours. In terms of predictive stuff, like you said, not necessarily game changing type of stuff, but there's things that I've always wanted to do that I didn't know how to fully implement or even know how to fully code into the model. One of them being adjusting. For example, a team like the Rockies at home versus on the road, their offensive quality, when you take weighted on base average for Rockies players, you're going to get a number that's very high because they play in a very offensive driven park. But their offensive quality is not as good on the road as opposed to at home. So what is the relative Adjustment there. Well, not only did I figure that out, but I can also layer that into my model now in a way that I wasn't really sure how to code in previously. So in terms of formulas or design or building out the capabilities of doing a Monte Carlo sim, again, something that I didn't come from a coding background, so I didn't know how to do. It's helped me refine things and make things more efficient, but also add tools that I always had the idea for that I wasn't able to fully implement. It's been super valuable and just makes me able to do more and look at more on a daily basis and kind of cut down how much time I'm spending on managing things.
- [12:36]
Chad Millman
That's amazing. Simon. Again, like, we didn't prep for this topic, but you and I talked a lot about your thoughts on AI and how we were going to try to use it and learn about it during the off season. Have you been doing any of that? We're going to have a much bigger AI show. Maybe we'll have Zerilla come on for that. But tell me your preliminary thoughts as we're six weeks, eight weeks removed from the season.
- [12:58]
Simon Hunt
Yeah. I don't know if you remember, I took a AI class in the offseason or during the season last year just to get ahead of it because I, I, I'd been getting into it, but I'd hired some guys who were, you know, in their early 20s and they were really into AI. And I was like, okay, this clearly is, you know, usable. I need to get into it. And I think I'm the same as Sean, where I realized pretty quickly, oh, it's a lot of hype. Like people, people that are worried about it. In certain aspects, it's not there yet. But in other aspects it is where, you know, say I had a team of 10 guys. I easily could let go five of those guys because I don't need them for all the work AI can do in minutes. Right. Well, you should be grueling work, going through all different websites, give me all the different data. AI cuts into a lot of that. And, you know, the biggest thing is it's hard. It's hard to trust AI. And I did have an AI model last year that I just didn't use. I didn't trust it enough. I did track it all season. It did really well. And my AI's biggest bet, its favorite bet in the super bowl, was the first half under, which obviously it worked out. But it was one of those things where it Helped me get confidence in my own bets where it's like, okay, not only is the human element of me seeing these things, AI is also training in the right way. And the more you feed it, that's the craziest part. The more you feed it, the better it gets. And that's the scary part to me is because I am a small operation, these billion dollar companies use sports books, AI. I don't know how they're going to use it, but it, it's hard right now to make a living doing this. The edges I think are going to keep getting smaller because whatever edge I have and AI is going to be able to spot that for the sports books, either they'll limit me or they're going to make it their own way of attacking the market that way. So it's a show we could honestly do. Chad two Porter on that one. We could do a whole week of AI talk with different guests because I know so many people in the space that are using it different ways and have different opinions. And the funniest is seeing the old school guys fighting against it where people like me that I embrace change. It makes your life so much easier. It does so much work for you.
- [15:02]
Sean Zarillo
So yeah, adapt or die.
- [15:06]
Simon Hunt
Exactly. Adapt to die. And I'm really excited to see, like we said, it's. Sean said he was an interesting what it's gonna be like in a year from now. I cannot wait to see what it's gonna be like five years from now because it does feel so early. Like it just. People want it to be instant. AI is a slow burn to me, but all of a sudden it's going to explode. So I'm excited to see what that next step is because right now it's, it's if you know what you're doing as a sports better and you know how to build models, it's the cheat code. Like again, it's making my bottom line easier because I don't need to put as much man hour and pay enough people to do work for me. And it's also raising the amount of money I can make because it's, it's saving me time. And time is money in this profession. So yeah, you can see I'm excited about it. I see all the horrible things about it, people losing jobs and everything like that. But the other side of it is if you are good at what you do, it can amplify that and really help you in many ways, especially saving time, which is to me, huge.
- [15:58]
Chad Millman
Look, we're going to Matt Mitchell put A pin in that one and he'll put it on the calendar. Maybe it's a week of AI and betting. It's obviously an issue we got to discuss. The clod of Major League Baseball is the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise, which dynastic you mentioned, OHTANI. They are plus 220 to win the World Series at Hard Rock. Plus 220. That is absurd. They are the only team below 10 to 1. Their season win total is 102 and a half. You know Zarillo, you talked about this on on payoff pitch. Their greatest advantage is how they treat their roster and how they manage it. Postseason versus regular season. Explain what that means.
- [16:49]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, this is a team that, you know, knows that they're probably going to make the playoffs. So they'll not push anybody too hard. One during the regular season, but two in any particular playoff game in order to get an advantage in that specific game. I always think back to Joe Torre with the Yankees and the way he would manage the bullpen during the regular season. It was like I have to win today at all costs. I'll figure out tomorrow. Tomorrow. And he's pitching Mariano Rivera for the third straight day in the middle of July for a team that's very likely to make the playoffs. Win 100 plus games anyway. What's the point of wasting those bullets when you don't need those bullets when those bullets are not going to help you win the title? Think about Tarek School in the World Baseball Classic and why people were so upset about what he was doing. Being on the team, being off the team. The optics of that were horrible. But also the one game he pitched was against Great Britain. It ultimately added nothing to the win probability for Team usa. Him being on the team wouldn't have mattered if you know, some relative scrub pitcher had started in his set instead of a two time running Alci Young champion. Because you are expected to win that game. You're going to be a big favorite regardless of who's starting for you. He's ultimately adding nothing to your championship probability. And I think that is how the Dodgers view every decision. What can we do to increase our championship probability? Not our probability of winning today or tomorrow, but increasing our probability of being the final team standing at the end of the year. Now you did mention their title odds being around +220. That's not so far off from where they opened last year. They were around plus 250 last year. The best price on them is when I took them when they did not win the number one or number two seed in the National League and ended up number three. And they got to around plus 350 before their series. Plus 320 before their series against the Reds. They had to win best of a three game series there. But essentially the only difference between them getting a buy and them not getting a buy and having to play those two extra. They just needed to win two out of three and then they were right back in the position they would have been had they gotten the buy. So you got odds from plus 250 to plus 320. That was the odds adjustment essentially for them needing to win a best of two out of three. And that was the time that I bet them last year. Now I make them about 30% to win the title this season. So I'm not far off from the market. I think I'm closer to plus 250. Again, the odds are about plus 220. But even though this team and I project them as 101 win team, as does the public projection, they have them at 101.3. Their win totals 102 and a half. Even though that's roughly what I view them as during the regular season, once you get to the playoffs, they project closer to a 110 win team. Because when you get down to roster consolidation and eliminating the needs for depth and all of the pitching injuries that they typically have, they just kind of project head and toes above everybody else in terms of true talent level. Once you consolidate to the 20 or so players you're going to be using as your playoff court, you know, when you, when you have a full regular season, you're projecting more of the 40 man roster into the calculus. But once you get to the playoffs, it's really your best 20 or best 22 players or so. So yeah, the Dodgers are easily the favorite. I know a lot of people have said that they're ruining baseball, that they signed the number one hitter, number one pitcher in Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker this offseason on top of a team that's already won back to back titles. They remain a heavy favorite to win the title. But I kind of maintain that it's the team's not investing the owners, not investing their teams, the Pirates for instance, that are causing the gap and the stress and the division in terms of how people feel about the haves and have nots in this game. A lot of these owners are wealthy, not all of them invest it back it into their teams. You have seen a team like Toronto pivot to investing a little bit more Aggressively. Most people didn't realize that Toronto has a top three richest ownership group in baseball. They just haven't really flexed the pocketbook until the past couple of years. So I think it is incumbent upon the lesser owners to catch up to the Dodgers. But the Dodgers are very much a dynasty. Dodgers haven't won or paced fewer than a 91 season since 2013. Simon and I were talking about it before the show. They made the playoffs every single year dating back to that point one three World Series, lost two. This is very much a dynasty. If they win three in a row in this era, you're talking about an all time great team, not just the dynasty.
- [21:08]
Chad Millman
What do they do to manage the roster during the season that that lives up to that philosophy you just explained where they're not really caring about that day to day improvement of their odds to win a game. It's about improving their odds to win a title. Like pitching, rotations are generally set. Is it about adjusting where who's in the lineup that day? Is it about adjusting batting order? Is it about changing the rotation? What are some decisions they make?
- [21:44]
Sean Zarillo
They are load managing Freddie Freeman. Freddie Freeman is getting into his late 30s now, but if you look at the past few years, he's played exactly 147 games. And if you figure over the course of a major league season, that means he's sitting about every 10 days. So they're just load managing him. They're just making sure that he's is not exhaustive for the playoffs. He's had some injuries he's dealt with too, but essentially making sure Freddie Freeman gets an off day. Ohtani is going to be pitching again this year for them. I would imagine they may factor in some additional DH off days for him as well. But it really speaks to you know I said I know you said rotations are set with the Dodgers. That's not really the case. The Dodgers haven't had somebody clear 200 innings in a very long time. If they have any sort of concern about a pitching injury, they'll just stick a guy in the il. And in fact there was just a few years ago baseball had created, I can't remember it was a 7 day IL or a 10 day IL specifically for pitchers. So that if you needed to stick a pitcher on the IL, they weren't missing three starts. They weren't missing the full 15 days. You could get them back in 10 days so they would only miss two starts. Well, the Dodgers were manipulating that rule so hard they got rid of it because anybody who was Getting hurt for the daughters, 10 day, 10 day out and then they're bringing up all of their depth arms to fill those spots. But it was very obvious that they were just kind of using it to load manage their rotation and they were taking this IL spot almost like you would on a fantasy roster to stash dudes so they could bring other dudes up and kind of contribute for a little bit. And you're keeping your other guy, your healthy guy, but kind of injured guy in the IL and just sort of giving them a break. So they're great. I mean, you have to understand that the Dodgers managerial group, their GM, etc. All came from the raise when the Rays were overachieving drastically relative to their payroll. And then these guys, Andrew Friedman, the chief among them, went to the Dodgers and they went from 30th or 29th in payroll to 1st by a lot. So now you're talking about combining the smartest GM or managerial group with all of the money. And also they can build out an analytics staff to their likeness as well. You know, people talk about a lot about the salary cap and maybe that can be the way to neutralize things. I disagree. All of the rich teams like the Dodgers, like the Yankees, if they're not able to invest more in their roster, they're just going to invest in more analytics staff. And look as somebody who's on the analysis data side of baseball, that's not necessarily something that I think is a bad thing. Because I would like people, more people with my type of background or experience to get opportunities in major league front offices. But it's all to say that the money will just be reallocated and reinvested elsewhere to try to find them other advantages that they're already kind of finding off the field. So yeah, they're brilliantly run, they have a ton of talent, but also they kind of manipulate the rules as much as they can to ensure the guys are healthy for the playoffs, but they have enough depth in their organization that they're not really worried about getting there.
- [24:39]
Simon Hunt
That's what's so amazing to me is we knew the cheat code and they started with Moneyball, Boston took it, they messed up, then Chicago took it from them somehow, the Cubs screwed up and now the Dodgers have just run away with it. There they are just such a well run organization like even you talking about right now. It makes me sick as a Phillies fan where it's like, this ain't gonna end in five years. Like this might be unless MLB changes the rules. This might be Our lives now for 10 to 15 years. They just have a brilliant front office with an owner that wants to spend money.
- [25:10]
Sean Zarillo
It's.
- [25:10]
Simon Hunt
It's something like again, Boston, I feel bad for their fan that feels like they had that and it just. They switch ownership groups and it's totally gone away. And so, you know, talking with the National League right now in the futures market, there's going to be some good value because what you just talked about, everything's so focused heavily into the Dodgers. Are there any surprise teams you like? Are there any win totals that are worth talking about? Like, what's your view right now? The National League future market.
- [25:35]
Sean Zarillo
So I would say most people expect two of three of the Phillies, Mets and Braves to make the playoffs. The Dodgers obviously are probably going to make the playoffs. Most people expect the Cubs to make the playoffs. So that kind of leaves two spots. Right? So you're talking about the Brewers. I would think it's the Braves. We'll talk about the Braves in a second. Why? I'm low on them. But the brewers, the Pirates, the Giants or the Padres? The Braves and I think the Marlins could be in the mix. That's six teams all fighting for two playoff spots. Now. The Braves have had the worst spring of any team. They've lost Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrop and Spencer Schreider all to the il. That's three of their five starting rotation members. They also lost jerks in profire to a full season suspension. Reynaldo Lopez, one of their other starters, his velocity's down. And Chris Sales, 37 and hasn't cleared 170, 70 innings since 2017. So the Braves rotation has fallen apart. Acuna is still an MVP candidate. He looked great this spring. He looked great in the wbc. They still have a lot of offensive talent, but I do think the house of cards with their pitching could absolutely collapse. And they don't really have a ton of minor league depth. They could bring up either. So Atlanta is going to have to mash their way to the playoffs. If they don't, and I don't think they will, or at least I project them closer to 85 wins and think they will be in the mix with other teams. I think it really opens the door for a team like the Marlins or the Pirates to be your surprise playoff team. The Marlins are around plus 700. Plus 650. The pirates are around. They were around plus 450. Now they're closer to plus 300. I mean, you know the story with skins. But the Pirates actually did invest in their roster this off season. They were also the off season kings of at least we tried which is the ensuring that you put out a press release that you were in the mix on a player and ultimately didn't get them. They were in the mix apparently on Kyle Schwarber. Didn't get him. It's great to be the great to be the we we almost got them team every off season but this year they actually did make some trades, added some guys, fortified that roster a little bit. So I think the Pirates will be in the mix. But and this is, you know, one of the points I really wanted to make. So I'm glad we got to a team like the Pirates. There are two great ways to bet the Pirates and to bet the Rays that I think are flying under the radar relative to their playoff odds if either of those teams make the playoffs. The Pirates haven't made the playoffs since 2015, maybe even earlier. The Rays are in the toughest division in baseball. They have four teams projected to finish 500 ahead of them. All of those teams are minus money to make the playoffs. The Rays, I said are around. They're both teams, both the Rays and the pirates around plus 300 to make the playoffs. Their managers to win Manager of the year are both around 15 to 20 to 1. When manager of the Year, if either of those teams make the playoffs, the managers are finishing top two and probably winning. I mean if the Pirates make the playoffs, their manager is almost certainly winning. Unless a team like the Marlins also makes and then they're fighting for that award again like a team like the Rays if they make the playoffs, Kevin Cash is probably winning Manager of the Year unless the White Sox also win the playoff or also make the playoffs. So I just wanted to point out that you may have a thesis or an opinion. You may see the most direct way to bet it, which is Pirates to make the playoffs. There may be a much better way to bet it that is so highly correlated to that outcome that you're probably better off betting the other thing, if not both.
- [28:51]
Chad Millman
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- [30:23]
Sophie Cunningham
Hey guys, it's Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. So Arby's just dropped a deal that honestly feels a little unreal.
- [30:29]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
Yeah, it's the new Meat in Three box for $7.99, and it's loaded with Arby's favorites in a way that does not feel like a $7.99 situation.
- [30:36]
Sophie Cunningham
So here's the setup. You choose your sandwich, a classic roast beef crispy chicken or the crispy fish sandwich. Already a very strong start.
- [30:44]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
But then it keeps going because you also get melty mozzarella sticks, crispy curly fries, and a peach cobbler roll, which is a little sweet treat and so good. You genuinely need to try this.
- [30:54]
Sophie Cunningham
And there's a small drink in there, too, so even though it's called meat and three, you're actually getting five items for just $7.99. That's kind of wild.
- [31:02]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
Pick the sandwich you want, make it your own, and get it your own way.
- [31:05]
Sophie Cunningham
Available for a limited time at participating locations. While supplies last, prices may vary. Get your Meat in three box at an Arby's near you today.
- [31:13]
Verizon Ad Voice
All right, two true Selai. Here we go. I went to college with college football coach Jim McElwain. I began my broadcasting career doing play by play for the Las Vegas Stars, and I've been a Verizon customer for 15 years. Okay, I lied. All three are true. Verizon isn't as expensive as you think. In fact, if you bring in your ATT or T mobile bill to a Verizon store, they'll give you a better deal. That's right. A better deal on the best network with the most ways to save on plans, streaming and phone deals. So take that AT and T or T mobile bill to your local Verizon store today. Get a better deal and start saving based on root metrics. Best overall Mobile Network Performance U.S. 2nd Half 2025 All Rights Reserve must provide recent consumer mobile bill in the name of the person redeeming the deal. Additional terms, conditions and restrictions apply.
- [32:03]
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- [33:02]
Julian Edelman
This is Julian Edelman from Dudes on Dudes with Gronk and Jewels. All right, real quick. Take a look at yourself right now.
- [33:09]
Daniel Cormier
Why?
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Julian Edelman Ad Partner
What's wrong?
- [33:09]
Julian Edelman
Nothing's wrong. You look like a guy running on three hours of sleep and vibes.
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Julian Edelman Ad Partner
Okay, yeah, I'm tired, kind of cranky and very thirsty.
- [33:18]
Julian Edelman
Congrats. Those are some of the potential signs of mild dehydration. And I bet your last bathroom break showed you another sign your buddy might be throwing you a penalty flag.
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Julian Edelman Ad Partner
So what's the play?
- [33:32]
Julian Edelman
Call Liquid IV Hydration multiplier. One stick in water helps hydrate faster than water alone.
- [33:40]
Julian Edelman Ad Partner
Okay, but where's the proof?
- [33:41]
Julian Edelman
Liquid IV's clinical studies. Not just a guy. I know. Real science. Results you can trust.
- [33:50]
Julian Edelman Ad Partner
Well, take a look at me now. Liquid IV is officially part of my daily hydration routine. Pass the firecracker. Popsicle flavor.
- [33:57]
Julian Edelman
Stay hydrated like a pro, not like Jack. Before this. Stock up on Liquid IV hydration multiplier@liquid-iv.com and use the promo code nuthouse for 20% off your first purchase.
- [34:14]
Chad Millman
All right, Zarilo I don't think anyone that I know has stayed as on top of changes to the baseball as you have and how it impacts not just a team's opportunities to win, but impacts betting lines, impacts run totals, everything down the line. What is the latest on the ever changing world as the baseball turns?
- [34:41]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, we'll find out a week or so into the season if you go on Baseball Savant. If you just google Baseball Savant drag coefficient, you can find year by year the graphs showing how the baseball's fluctuated in terms of the drag date on it. Meaning less drag it's going to fly further, more drag it's not going to fly as far. Now this is based upon, I believe fastball is thrown, but if you look at the home runs per year correlated with that data, you can see that baseball has clearly been changing the baseball. Sometimes, unfortunately, they're cycling out old baseballs while introducing new ones. You do have games or instances in a season where they've pulled baseballs from the same game, sliced into those baseballs and found that they are different baseballs and the pitcher does not know, the hitter does not know what particular ball is being thrown at them at that release. So you can watch a game. And I've watched plenty of games where a batted ball is hit at the same exit velocity and the same launch angle and does not travel one does not travel as far as the other. That is almost certainly a difference in the ball and not any difference in weather or anything like that, assuming it's in a dome. The Texas State in particular. I've seen a lot of weird ball travel. So the larger point is MLB changed it 2017, 2019, 2021. Like every two years they've swapped in a different type of ball. 2022 was the most egregious of the three. That was the Aaron Judge home run chase. They used three different balls that year. They used a juice ball, a ball that was probably used in 2021 which was D Juice, and then the Goldilocks ball. And we have evidence that MLB both for the Home Run Derby and the All Star Game, but also for games that Aaron Judge was playing en route to his 60 plus home run season, that MLB was putting a super juiced ball into play, the Goldilocks ball. So not only have they been caught red handed and people don't really talk about it, but we also don't know what ball they're going to use and play the following year. And last year in 2025 the balls were traveling five feet less than they had in 2024 and home runs went down slightly and then they started coming back up. And if you look at the graph for like over under profitability throughout the season, there's a giant spike to the unders and then if you kept betting unders, there's a giant downslope because the overs started heading at a ridiculous rate and then it kind of neutralized again. So I think at some point around April or around May, June of last year, MLB started cycling in a new batch of balls and that's the ones that we finished the year with. The question is whether those are the balls to start the 2026 season. So we don't really know until the year starts. But the, the data point that you can measure is the drag coefficient data on baseball savant. Kind of look at where the dots are relative to prior years and you could figure out the expected home run rate.
- [37:42]
Chad Millman
What is your evidence that is in the baseball analytics community about the Goldilocks ball for Aaron Judge in his season of 60 plus homers specifically?
- [37:55]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, so there's a scientist, her name's Meredith Wills, she's a physicist. She was the one who has been collecting and splicing into these balls and you can find her studies on them that I've read. But essentially it comes down to physics and what is actually inside of the baseballs. And this woman, Meredith, she's sliced into them across again 2017, 2019, 21, 22, 24 and 25 and has noted the changes in all of those years. So it's not something that I'm doing based off of baseball savant data and ball flight, even though you can use those data points to measure it is actually people physically cutting into the baseballs and measuring them in labs and the flight data and the drag data on them and closed environments and labs and saying yeah, these are different.
- [38:43]
Simon Hunt
And I, I just add on to the crazy drama here is apparently like the Dodgers, the Phillies, the Yankees, these big time clubs, apparently they're more, they give them more often than not those type of balls because they want those, those teams are the big time guys to get these hits. So again nothing's been proven scientifically on that. But it's like conspiracy theorists like I love going down these Reddit, these Reddit like deep holes on all these fans theories. People don't even respect Schwarber's home run run because they're like, oh, he was getting juice balls where it's like anyone can hear Schwarber hit the ball. It sounds different. Like there is clearly it doesn't matter if the balls are juice to me for sure. But that's a Phillies fan in me. But I believe it because it's like, you watch these Yankees games, these Phillies games, like, oh, that's the short perch or portrait they call it. It's like, is it or is something going on here with these baseballs? Because it is crazy. These, these upticks and, and you know, I haven't read her study, but that's definitely something I'm about to spend the next 10 hours on because that's, that's
- [39:39]
Sean Zarillo
really interesting if that is, if there is any. And I don't necessarily buy into that theory, but if there is any truth to that theory with ABS being introduced and umpires having less influence over the games, that would be the one way that you could influence the outcome and you could help the top teams is feeding them baseballs that are maybe a little bit juice and giving the other teams de juice baseballs. Because ABS is going to neutralize everything in terms of called strikes. It's very much incumbent upon the players on the field now when to challenge. So that does neutralize things to a degree.
- [40:11]
Chad Millman
Let me ask one more question, because something about this doesn't pass the sniff test. Was this physicist cutting into Aaron Judge home run balls from his historic home run season when just about every ball that he hit, a very small sample size of overall balls was getting collected, was getting potentially sold or given back to him. How many of his specific balls did this physicist cut into?
- [40:45]
Sean Zarillo
So 2022 was the year that I believe she tested the most because there was such a different variation in terms of the outcomes in the balls. Now she got. I just pulled it up. She got over 200 baseballs from that year, nine in the postseason across four playoff rounds, and 11 specifically obtained from Yankee games. And that's how she was able to determine in the Yankee games. Okay, the baseballs were a little bit more. So it's not like Aaron Judge specific at bats. They were like, here, you know, here you go, here's the Aaron Judge balls. I think it was specific to the Yankee game balls and the playoff balls measuring similarly relative to the regular juice balls and the dead end balls during the regular season.
- [41:27]
Chad Millman
That's amazing.
- [41:29]
Simon Hunt
Yeah, it's a great.
- [41:30]
Sean Zarillo
Google, Google Meredith Wills, Aaron Judge Google Meredith Wills 2022. You can read her whole study and read into it. There is a lot of truth to it.
- [41:37]
Chad Millman
All right. So, Zurillo, speaking of, you always come on the show and you will give us really great futures for Individual performance and you've been on it. I think last year, I think last year it was like you gave us Kyle Schwaber, you've given us great home run futures. Talk to us. Give us your individual player futures.
- [42:01]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, Kyle Schwerber is back on the list this year. RBI 35 to 1. I made him 21 last year for RBI Leader. He's 35 to 1 this year. It was 50 to 1 last year. So I'm fine betting it at 35 to 1 still. You know my general takeaway this year, I didn't project these out last year. I haven't projected these out in previous years. I found that there's much bigger edges in general on the milestone props as opposed to category leader props. Now the odds aren't going to be as enticing a lot of the times, but you can still find 9 to 1, 10 to 1 shots on guys to get 200 plus strikeouts that I think should be closer to plus 450 or plus 500. So the general takeaway and analyzing the futures market this year was much more value in the milestone and ladder props than there is any outright leader props. The biggest edges I found on out like outright leader props was Ohtani RBI leader at 14 to 1. Now I did mention he may sit a little bit more this year but in terms of projections he is above Aaron Judge for RBI home run. I think he's also five to one. There is value in that number two. Obviously the, the more long shot leader props are a little bit more interesting. Stolen base leader Chandler Simpson is five to one. I like him. But Victor Scott at 25 to one I think is a good bet as well. You know there's, there's a number of like correlated player portfolios that I built. I think the, the most interesting market maybe because the, the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins. I should say the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most. You know, compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs, like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random. But Logan Webb at 20 to 1 from Revolver 30 to 1, George Kirby at 50 to 1. I think those are all great bets because what I found doing research into pitcher wins, the correlation between the wins leader is just as high as the correlation between the guys who finished highest in quality starts. Wins just kind of come down to luck and how many runs your, your offense scores for you. Quality starts isn't even the best measurement of a good start for a pitcher, but it is a good measurement for putting your team in position to win and giving your I mean you could have a 450 ERA for the season and still have a quality start. It's three runs and six innings. So quality start isn't necessarily the best measurement of like you're a good pitcher, but it is a really good measurement for you gave your team a chance to win and if they gave you four runs or three runs, you're probably going to get that one if you threw five innings. So Webb 20 to 1, Valdez 30 to 1, Kirby 50 to 1. That might be my favorite grouping of like long shot bets for pitcher wins or just in general for any category because again like the the range of outcomes for pitcher wins is so compressed and all those guys are or 20 to 1 or better. You also do if you dead heat as well, you end up splitting the odds. So if two of them win, you'll end up cashing both tickets. You'll just split the odds on both of those. So I don't. I think that's a, that's a pretty interesting approach. The guy added most recently and I think there still may be value out there from a player prop perspective or from a player word perspective is Kevin McGonwell of the Tigers. He's my favorite for a Rookie of the year right now. It's unclear as to whether or not he's going to make the Tigers opening day roster. It seems like at worst he'll be up within two weeks. They're going to maybe delay the service time, you know, manipulate that. The thing that people, a lot of people have not realized in analyzing this, if you finish top two in ALE in Rookie of the Year in either league, you lose the year of service time anyway. So if you're going to wait two weeks to bring up a guy to gain that year of service time and then he ends up finishing first or second rook of the year, then you waited two weeks for nothing. So I think McGonagall is going to be on the Tigers opening day roster either playing shortstop or third base. He's not like a Bobby Witt 3030 shortstop where he has like insane power and speed. He is the 2026 archetype that I am most looking forward to analyzing and trying to capture the value of going forward. He's a swing decision monster. Swing decisions is the ability to swing in strikes and not at balls and to swing at good strikes and not close strikes. The swing it strikes in the heart of the zone and to not swing at balls or close pitches and to put quality of contact on those pitches. That is the process stat that I think people overlook the most now or would like to capture the most in terms of figuring out offensive quality. Because yes, like you could have a great season, you know, or less great season just by nature of variance. And like your bat was, you know, a tenth of an inch away from like making perfect contact. And as a result you hit into an out instead of hitting home run, right? Like this year you may get all of the best outcomes as a result. Next year you may get the wrong side of all those outcomes. And one year a guy hits 40 home runs, the next guy next year he hits 20. You know, generally, like if you're projected to hit 30 home runs plus 10 or minus 10 on either side of that is an acceptable range of outcomes for a player. The swing decision guys, I think are much safer investments, but also much safer offensive teams and process and swinging at good pitches to swing at and avoiding bad pitches to swing at. When we get into the playoffs, when you watch the wbc, you could really see it with the quality of plate appearances the guys were taking and the teams that were more effective. Italy was, Italy was probably the best example, the reason why Italy made it to the final four of the wbc. If you watch their bats, they were spitting at balls and they're swinging at strikes and that was like the entire offense philosophy. And I know that sounds really simple, but it's really hard to do. Not chasing pitches is really hard to do. And swinging at pitches that are in the zone every time they're in the zone is really hard to do. And then making sure the bat is on the ball and hand eye coordination is another layer, layer on top of it. That's really hard to do. And the point is that Kevin McGonagall is like the best prospect we've ever seen at those skills. The power and speed are pretty good, but he's more of like a 20, 20 guy at best. He's not, not going to go 30, 30 or 40, 40, but he's probably going to hit.290 and have a really high on base percentage because his swing decisions are so elite. So he's six to one right now for Rookie of the Year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now ale Rookie of the Year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made. So that's why I'm bringing it up. J.J. weatherholt in the NL, similar case. Probably not as good as McGonagall, but another really good swing decisions guy who may not have, like, the aesthetically pleasing athleticism that you would want, but a very safe floor.
- [48:41]
Chad Millman
All right, before we get out of here, I love that analysis on swing decisions. That's, that's, that's why baseball becomes more and more interesting every year for me.
- [48:50]
Sophie Cunningham
Hey, guys, it's Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. So Arby's just dropped a deal that honestly feels a little unreal.
- [48:56]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
Yeah, it's the new Meat in 3 box for 7.99, and it's loaded with Arby's favorites in a way that does not feel like a 7.99 situation.
- [49:03]
Sophie Cunningham
So here's the setup. You choose your sandwich, a classic roast beef crispy chicken or the crispy fish sandwich. Already a very strong start.
- [49:11]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
But then it keeps going because you also get melty mozzarella sticks, crispy curly fries, and a peach cobbler roll, which is a little sweet treat and so good. You genuinely need to try this.
- [49:21]
Sophie Cunningham
And there's a small drink in there, too. So even though it's called meat and three, you're actually getting five items for just $7.99. That's kind of wild.
- [49:29]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
Pick the sandwich you want, make it your own, and get it your own way.
- [49:32]
Sophie Cunningham
Available for a limited time at participating locations. While supplies last, prices may vary. Get your Meat in three box at an Arby's near you today.
- [49:40]
Verizon Ad Voice
All right, two truths and a lie. Here we go. I went to college with college football coach Jim McElwaine. I began my broadcasting career doing play by play for the Las Vegas Stars, and I've been a Verizon customer for 15 years. Okay, I lied. All three are true. Verizon isn't as expensive as you think. In fact, if you bring in your AT&T or T Mobile bill to a Verizon store, they'll give you a better deal. That's right, a better deal on the best network with the most ways to save on plans, streaming and phone deals. So take that AT and T or T Mobile to your local Verizon store today. Get a better deal and start saving based on root metrics. Best overall Mobile Network Performance US Second Half 2025 all rights reserve must provide recent consumer mobile bill in the name of the person redeeming the deal. Additional terms, conditions and restrictions apply.
- [50:29]
Public Investing Ad Voice
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- [51:30]
Jacob Goldstein
is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com Opening
- [52:03]
Chad Millman
Night Giants Yankees Any thoughts? Opening Day Any thoughts for people who might be listening to this very soon and want to get in some action?
- [52:16]
Sean Zarillo
Yeah, nothing for opening night for the Giants game. There are a couple of angles I was eyeing for the official opening day on Thursday and one of them I think is interesting because if you look at the team total analysis, it's like completely opposite. So the Minnesota Twins are a team that the public projection market is really high on this year. They have them at about 77 and a half wins. I have them at 70.6 again, 77.5 versus 70.6. Their win total is 72.5. This is a team who is probably going to sell off a lot of pieces. At the trade deadline they did last year, they had to sell off minority shares of their ownership. So not only did they not invest in their roster, they were actively looking for investors into their team. So that they could pay their roster. So this is not a team that's going to be adding pieces. It's only a team that's going to be selling pieces. As a result. I'm under their win total. I bet they're one total under. But right now this is a 78 win team. A team that should play if all the pieces are on the roster. A team that should be close to.500. Joe Ryan is starting for them on opening day. Joe Ryan is an all star caliber pitcher. Pablo Lopez got hurt for them. So relative to their other starting pitchers, Joe Ryan is significantly better. So when Joe Ryan is pitching, this is like an 85. One team or an 88. One team. If Joe Ryan was able to start every game right, this is closer to an 85. One team, not a 78 win team. They're playing the Orioles on opening day. I believe their number is close to plus 130. I make that game right around a coin flip. So I will be betting the Twins almost certainly on opening day. It was my biggest projected edge when I first opened up the numbers. I just think they're being under projected right now probably relative to end of season expectations. Not necessarily who they are, especially Joe Ryan on the mound. So twins opening day around 130 ish. I probably like that down to about 115 and then the under eight and a half. I believe between the brewers and White Sox. I haven't bet it yet, but I think I made that about 7.8 and for some reason I always end up on the, excuse me, on the under on the first game of the brewers season at home. So I'm sure producer Matt will be excited to hear that he gets the fire and under it one of the teams he supports an opening day.
- [54:24]
Chad Millman
Oh my God. Matt Mitchell. You give him in an under for any kind of day baseball midweek he is. We might not even see him that day.
- [54:33]
Sean Zarillo
I bet under 8 and a half. So I'm sure he'll be searching for an alt under 7 and a half at plus money. I'm sure he's laughing as I say this too, because I'm sure he already is.
- [54:40]
Chad Millman
Sean Zarilo host a payoff pitch on Action Network Baseball savant AI provocateur. Thanks for coming on the show making us smarter. This has been sharp or square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods Rate Review Subscribe Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you for a picture.
- [55:12]
Sean Zarillo
Treat an umpire like your sister just brought over a date from the prime. Be very cordial, very nice, very professional. Don't ever make him feel bad about what he's doing. Buddy, buddy, just be cordial, be nice. Never show him up. He's getting paid to do this thing.
- [55:34]
Sophie Cunningham
This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Okay, Arby's just casually pulled up with a deal that feels a little too good.
- [55:40]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
They've got this new meat in three box for 7.99 and honestly, it's stacked with Arby's quality favorites in a way that feels kind of ridiculous.
- [55:46]
Sophie Cunningham
For that price, here's what you're getting inside you Pick one sandwich, the classic roast beef, the crispy chicken sandwich or the crispy fish sandwich.
- [55:53]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
Then it just keeps going because also comes with melty mozzarella sticks, crispy curly fries, and a peach cobbler roll, which is a little sweet treat and so good.
- [56:01]
Sophie Cunningham
And you get a small drink to round it all out. So yeah, it's called Meat and Three, but you're actually getting five items all for only $7.99.
- [56:09]
Sophie Cunningham (Ad read partner)
Pick the sandwich you want, make it your own, and get it your way
- [56:12]
Sophie Cunningham
available for a limited time at participating locations. While successful supplies last, prices may vary. Get your meat in three box at any Arby's near you today.
- [56:20]
Verizon Ad Voice (Alternate)
Think Verizon is expensive? Think again. Anyone can bring their AT and T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal. So bring us your bill. Walk in running Hogo, sticking teleport if you can ride on the back of a rollerblading yak or flying on the wings of a majestic falcon, any way, you can bring your AT and T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we we'll give you a better deal on the best network based on RootMetric's best overall mobile network performance. US second half 2025 all rights reserved. Must provide very recent postpaid consumer mobile bill in the name of the person redeeming the deal. Additional terms, conditions and restrictions apply when
- [56:50]
Grainger Ad Voice
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- [57:20]
Jacob Goldstein
This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive, and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that, because all Odoo software is connected on a single, affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting. All linked and talking to each other. Check out odoo@o d o o dot com. That's o d o o dot com.
- [58:04]
Sophie Cunningham
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [58:07]
Sean Zarillo
Guaranteed Human.