The Herd with Colin Cowherd – “Sharp or Square: NBA Betting Update with Jason Timpf”

Date: February 18, 2026
Guests: Chad Millman (host), Simon Hunter (co-host), Jason Timpf (NBA analyst, “Hoops Tonight”)

Episode Overview

This episode of “Sharp or Square” pivots into NBA territory following All-Star Weekend, with a dedicated focus on NBA betting insights for the second half of the season. Special guest Jason Timpf, host of “Hoops Tonight,” joins to break down futures odds, team dynamics, why certain teams are outperforming expectations, and potential long-shot MVP bets. The conversation is sharp, candid, and rich with both statistical context and on-the-ground observations from NBA events in Los Angeles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

All-Star Weekend Experience and the Intuit Dome (00:38–10:59)

• Chad shares All-Star Weekend stories—celebrity events, dinner with industry figures, and run-ins with stars like Demi Moore and Dr. J.
  • Memorable Moment: “Swag doesn’t age, Chad.” – Simon Hunter (04:01)
• In-depth review of the Intuit Dome experience:
  • Futuristic, app-based entry system described as “a little bit freaky” – but glitchy and unimpressive in execution. (07:14)
  • Arena features like “the Swell” wall received praise for boosting energy and causing missed free throws. (08:30)
  • The importance of replicating passionate fan sections—learning from events like the NBA Cup in Vegas. (10:01)

State of the NBA: Odds & Futures Breakdown (11:26–15:17)

• Detroit Pistons: The Overlooked Juggernaut
  • Leading the Eastern Conference, dominating key metrics, particularly against top teams. (12:41)
  • However, concerns remain about their half-court offense, which could be problematic against veteran teams in the playoffs.
  • Jason Timpf: “[Detroit] are just huge at every position group… They’re dominating margins. But… their big red flag is their half-court offense.” (12:41)
  • Likely to go far but may fall to more experienced, polished teams such as Cleveland, New York, or Boston.

The Cleveland Cavaliers: Harden’s Impact & Eastern Conference Outlook (15:17–20:06)

• Cavs’ Transformation Post-James Harden Trade
  • Harden brings value over injury-prone Darius Garland due to durability and veteran scoring. (15:55)
  • Partnership with Donovan Mitchell seen as superior to past Harden duos; Mitchell is a reliable playoff performer.
  • Cleveland’s supporting additions (Keon Ellis, Dennis Schroeder) give them elite small-guard defense, crucial in the “guard-heavy” East.
  • Quote: “I think Cleveland is going to win the East… They have the best combination of shot creation, pick and roll partners, off-ball shooting, perimeter defense and interior defense.” – Jason Timpf (19:35)

Kevin Durant Burner Account Scandal (20:06–23:21)

• The group discusses the alleged KD burner account controversy.
  • Jason cautiously believes “it’s more likely than not that it was KD,” referencing compelling circumstantial evidence—his friends are in the involved group chats. (23:14)
  • KD’s social media defensiveness is well established, making the case plausible.
  • Quote: “It’s all so intense and aggressive that it just adds that little bit of doubt for me…” – Jason Timpf (22:00)

Boston Celtics: The Most Overlooked Contender? (24:01–27:46)

• Boston’s Surprising Staying Power
  • Despite injuries and expected regression, Boston remains in contention (14:1 odds).
  • Success attributed to systemic excellence under coach Joe Mazzulla and strong core continuity.
  • Key rotations have been decimated but “the system is the star.”
  • Jason Timpf: “I would argue that Boston’s success is very much a product of their system… I just like a couple of these other teams better, almost in each of their individual position groups.” (27:20)
  • Noted they “outkick their coverage” in terms of pure talent, and could struggle in shot creation and defense compared to rivals.

Coaching Threads and Tanking: Will Hardy & The Jazz (29:37–33:19)

• Discussion on Will Hardy “missing the timing” by leaving Boston for Utah
  • Jason highlights Hardy’s “offensive genius” and the Jazz’s bright future, with developing talents like Keonte George and the anticipation of becoming a legit Western Conference force next season. (30:37)
  • Observes that the Celtics’ coaching tree is producing elite tactical minds.

Western Conference Futures: Timberwolves as a Sleeper (33:26–37:39)

• Minnesota Timberwolves: NFL Eagles Parallel
  • Jason sees the Wolves as perennial “flip the switch” candidates: often bored or low-effort in the regular season but capable of overwhelming teams with athleticism, defense, and bully-ball lineups when motivated. (33:42)
  • They match up well against Oklahoma City, especially with the improved play of Anthony Edwards.
  • Key additions (e.g., Ayo Dosunmu) increase their ceiling for a deep playoff run.
  • Quote: "When they really throw their fastball, they physically overwhelm you on defense… They will flip it and they’re damn near impossible to beat when they do.” – Jason Timpf (36:40)

The Lakers’ Dilemma & What’s Next (41:07–44:48)

• Lakers’ Roster Crunch
  • Lack both athleticism and three-point shooting, aside from their (rarely healthy together) stars.
  • Face near-total rebuild if LeBron leaves, needing to hit on every upcoming draft pick, trade, and signing—a tall order under Rob Pelinka’s track record.
  • Quote: “This roster needs to be completely rebuilt from the ground up… They don’t have a single guy on the team who is a good catch and shoot player and a good defender.” – Jason Timpf (42:27)
  • The trade for Luka has yet to re-invigorate the franchise as hoped, and LeBron’s future looms large.

MVP Futures: Looking for Value Beyond the Favorites (46:43–48:35)

• Shea Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite, but Jason pitches Pistons’ Cade Cunningham as the true value MVP longshot.
  • If Detroit outpaces OKC and Cade’s production/efficiency rises in the final stretch, at +1400 “that’s a value play I love.”
  • Quote: “If [Cade] goes up a level the tail end of the season… If the Pistons finish three games ahead of OKC, I think he’s the MVP…” – Jason Timpf (47:22)

Notable Quotes

• “Swag doesn’t age, Chad.” – Simon Hunter (04:01)
• "Detroit by any measure has had the most impressive regular season. But... their big red flag is their half-court offense." – Jason Timpf (12:41)
• “[Cleveland] have the best combination of shot creation, pick and roll partners, off ball shooting, perimeter defense and interior defense.” – Jason Timpf (19:35)
• "It's all so intense and aggressive that it just adds that little bit of doubt for me..." – Jason Timpf (22:00)
• “I would argue that Boston’s success is very much a product of their system...I just like a couple of these other teams better, almost in each of their individual position groups.” – Jason Timpf (27:20)
• "This roster needs to be completely rebuilt from the ground up...They don't have a single guy on the team who is a good catch and shoot player and a good defender." – Jason Timpf (42:27)
• “If [Cade] goes up a level... Pistons finish three games ahead of OKC, I think he’s the MVP and at that point plus 1400... I just like that as a value play.” – Jason Timpf (47:22)

Important Timestamps

• 00:38 – All-Star LA stories, Intuit Dome experience
• 07:14 – Arena technology, “the Swell” wall review
• 12:41 – Detroit Pistons’ strengths and playoff concerns
• 15:55 – Cavs-Harden analysis; the guard-heavy East
• 20:16 – Kevin Durant burner account discussion
• 24:01 – Boston Celtics’ overlooked value and systemic success
• 30:37 – Will Hardy, Jazz coaching, and tanking insights
• 33:42 – Timberwolves as the “flip the switch” Western sleeper
• 41:07 – Lakers’ needs and bleak evaluation
• 46:43 – MVP race breakdown; Cade Cunningham value pick

Tone and Style

The episode blends sharp stats-driven analysis with locker-room anecdotes and irreverent quips. It moves swiftly from storytelling (celebrity sightings, fan culture) to actionable NBA betting insights, always keeping the mood light but thoughtful—a strength of both the hosts and Jason Timpf.

For NBA Bettors & Fans

This episode is packed with context on why teams like the Pistons, Cavs, and Timberwolves offer value ahead of the public narrative, along with a unique MVP longshot perspective. If you want more than surface-level NBA chatter and real odds-based analysis, it’s a must-listen.