← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NBA CONFERENCE FINALS BETTING UPDATE: Knicks vs. Cavs, Spurs vs. OKC
00:42:32
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- [00:00]
Jonas Brothers
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Chad Millman
Guaranteed Human.
- [00:04]
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- [00:35]
Chad Millman
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- [00:54]
Jason Timp
So.
- [00:54]
Chad Millman
So your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.
- [01:05]
Jonas Brothers
Hey guys, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.
- [01:07]
Jason Timp
I'm Joe.
- [01:07]
Jonas Brothers
I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it, we just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.
- [01:18]
Chad Millman
We get to ask other people questions
- [01:20]
Jonas Brothers
because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
- [01:34]
Robert Smigel
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier this week. My guests, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an acapella band with their between songs Banter.
- [01:53]
Jason Timp
Where does your group perform?
- [01:54]
Chad Millman
Some retirement homes.
- [01:55]
Robert Smigel
Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [02:05]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joining as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [02:28]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing, brother?
- [02:31]
Chad Millman
I don't know if it was in the stars in the moon, in the zodiac signs or what? But last night I watched that overtime thriller between the Canadians and the Sabers and then got to click over to the end of Spurs Thunder, which I've been watching in multi view. But then like it got to overtime and I just had to watch in its full glory the Sabres and Canadians. And it's amazing. And I feel for Matt Mitchell who we were watching the game, you know, texting with, who obviously loves this, I call him the Sabrace, loves the Sabres and he, he's devastated. But that game was insane. But then it ended right when the spurs and Thunder got close in the final minutes and then went into double overtime. Glorious night. Glorious, glorious night of sports. Worth staying up? My kid who's back from college got home just as overtime of the Canadiens was starting and he's like, I cannot believe you're still up. And then we got to stay up until like midnight. It was like we were, you know.
- [03:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Wemby. Wemby did last night when my dream of what embiid was going to be for the Sixers. Honestly, like that, just a big man with freakish feet because they played soccer as a kid and it's just that you're not supposed to move that way at that height. And yeah, like we've talked about, you know, the NBA has changed. All the sports are always evolving, always changing. You just. He is an alien. We knew coming to the league he was gonna be an alien. But you know, he can have all the talent in the world to take over at the end of that game. Like you're saying, you're sitting there in your couch watching that overtime game and it's like this is, this is all you want as a fan of sports, right? The best player, the ball in their hand, just taking over, saying it's either we're either gonna win this because of me or we'll lose because I mean that was, you know, something that like was. See, that's a one off. If they don't win any other game after that, it means nothing. Or we just saw that moment. Chad, right, of Wemby pretty much putting his imprint on this league. So yeah, I'm excited to dive into some hoops today.
- [04:45]
Chad Millman
Well, listen, I got so many opinions on what that moment was for Wemby, for the spurs, for the Thunder. We got four teams left. We got the spurs and the Thunder. Who tipped off last night. We got the Cavs and the Knicks tipping off tonight. Returning to discuss all of it, our volume brother from hoops tonight One of the. I feel like he's one of the hottest voices in the NBA right now. His name is Jason Timp and he's joining us today and we are, we're privileged. Jason, good to see you, brother.
- [05:20]
Jason Timp
It's good to see you guys too. You know, anybody who's ever done this for a living knows that there are some days where we come in and there's not that much exciting stuff to talk about and we do our jobs because we're pros, but it's a little bit harder than it is on some other days. And then there are days you come in and you have something like what happened last night and then you just feel really lucky to do what we do for a living. And that was just one of those special moments in sports history. I just, I just can't get over, forget about how good he played, how early he is in his career, because I'd argue that Game 3 against Minnesota wasn't this good. But it was also one of the better playoff games you've seen a player play in a really long time. It was just an unbelievable performance and I'm glad we get to talk about it today.
- [06:06]
Chad Millman
So listen, we are going to get to the betting stuff because there's still betting opportunities for spurs and Thunder and, and Knicks and Cavs tips off tonight. And so we want to get to that. But you had a masterclass in discussing when Binyama's performance. Matt, play the clip for us and then I'll give you my opinion.
- [06:25]
Jason Timp
That was quite simply one of the greatest basketball games that any human being has ever played in the history of the sport. He was by far the best defensive player on the floor by a mile. He was by far the best offensive player on the floor by a mile. He was by far the best rebounder on the floor by a mile. This is a guy we're talking about that had a Shaquille O' Neal esque4020 game. And the defining moment of the game was him taking and making a 30 footer to tie the game and send it to double overtime. He dominated the game like a center with 40:20 in. The defining moment was him pulling the Steph Curry in okc. What you saw was the next great player in NBA history achieve a level of basketball that like, I, I would be hard pressed to find other games where I was like, that dude played better than Victor did in this game.
- [07:21]
Chad Millman
All right, look, so completely agree. All morning the entire conversation took me. If people hear sirens, by the way, it's because I'm at my mother in law's in Manhattan and you know she lives within three blocks of 8 million hospitals. So you might be distracted but I had a three hour drive into the city because Long island railroad is on strike so it's impossible to get into the city. A lot of conversation with my son about last night's game and you hit the nail on the head. That wembanyama shot from 30ft. When you're 7 4, down 3 and you've already been dominating, that should take the air out of a team. And it kind of did like the overtime, you know, the spurs ran away with it. Here's my theory Jason. World class NBA analyst guy who gets to spend a week with cowherd in Chicago because you're so good at this. Now here's my theory. The spurs needed a historic, breathtaking world class performance from womenyama to win this game in overtime. The Thunder had their best player and maybe the best player in the world other than Wemby or the second best player in the world other than Wemby in Shea. He had a terrible game and they still had this game in overtime after being down the entire game and making it close at the end. To me that does not portend well for the Spurs. And I know Dear and Fox was out, but Dylan Harper was amazing and Stefan Castle, a lot of turnovers but he still played incredibly well. Both of them filling in. Am I right or wrong?
- [09:09]
Jason Timp
So I would actually go the other way, as crazy as that sounds, because if I, you know, I had like these keys to the series coming into the series. And the first key was, you know, the spurs had to take care of the basketball and they ended up with what, 20 turnovers? Def Castle himself had 11. They gave up something like 28 points off of turnovers like that went heavy towards OKC. And by the way, Dear and Fox returning should be able to help stabilize their ball handling and help them avoid some of those turnovers. And overall in this matchup, the spurs took good care of the basketball in the regular season. They averaged about 13 turnovers per game. Secondly, it was Darren Fox versus versus Shea in crunch time and Fox was just completely out of the equation. And you saw that the spurs guards especially were very mistake prone in crunch time. They're not comfortable in that setting. And it was very much Shay versus Wemby. And that dynamic, you know, even though that went in OKC's direction in terms of Fox's availability, it didn't matter. They we knew they were going to leave Alex Caruso Open a bunch. And in General, several of OKC's sketchier shooters open. The Thunder made 17 threes and shot 38% on threes. This is a crazy stat because like you got to account for like the crazy step back threes versus the catch and shoots. The spurs conceded 26 unguarded catch and shoot threes in that game and The Thunder made 15 of them. They were 15 for 26. That's over 1.7 points per shot. They can't shoot any better than they did on the types of conceded threes that the spurs gave up in that game. So I will absolutely agree with you that there are things that the Thunder can do better. Shay's shot diet is tough, so if people are expecting him to go in there and shoot the same efficiency numbers that he had in the regular season, that ain't gonna happen. This is a different challenge. There are a lot of really tough contested shots, but he can certainly play better than he did. And there are certainly some things that the Thunder can do better. But I would argue several of those key swing factors went towards OKC last night and the spurs ended up getting it done anyway. And I would argue they kind of controlled the game. San Antonio like the the Thunder made their late comeback to send it to ot, but the spurs kind of felt in control of that game for the most part. And the last thing I'd say about it is I, I always get, you know, everyone gets emotional the night of the game and I went back and re watched it this morning and it's always fun to re watch the game because you can process it more just within the X's and O's in the basketball. And the number one thing that screamed to me off the screen when I was watching the film is that the Thunder looks small and it's not just on the glass where they're out where they were out rebounded 61 to 40 and 15 to 9. On the offensive glass, it's the guards, AJ Mitchell, Jared McCain, Cason, Wallace, Shagiel, Just Alexander, Dylan Harper and Steph Castle can physically overwhelm those guys. And they got all sorts of good shots for them in the paint with Dylan Harper just driving and bullying Steph Castle just driving and bullying. And so as we kind of zoom out from one game, it looks to me like the spurs have lots of different ways to get good shots in this matchup, whereas the Thunder kind of have a very unique challenge in front of them that I think they're going to struggle to solve unless they just hit a Bunch of threes and force a bunch of turnovers and get out and transition, which they did. And it didn't matter. And so that's what scares me for their matchup looking forward in the series.
- [12:45]
Chad Millman
Well, look, what's also interesting is Castle, Visell, Johnson off the bench. They basically are the same body. All of them look like they're playing grown man YMCA basketball. I'm not using that in a pejorative. I mean that in a. They are just, they can bully anybody at any spot. You just made a great point about the Thunder. Like their bodies are just bigger. They look like they're like, they look like they're adults in that respect. That's, that's a great point.
- [13:23]
Jason Timp
Yeah. To take it a step further, Keldon Johnson was bullying Jared McCain. Devin Vassell multiple times in the game, was able to get to his spot for little mid range jump shots. There was like a classic play that I thought demonstrated this, where AJ Mitchell ran a ball screen, got to a spot in the mid range and got scared to shoot over Steph Castle and it resulted in a turnover. And then on the very next possession, Devin Vassell ran the same kind of ball screen against AJ Mitchell. AJ Mitchell defended it well, stayed in front and. And Devin just literally rose right up over the top of him and hit a 15 footer because he's like three inches taller. And the biggest problem is because Victor Wembanyama makes Isaiah Hartenstein unplayable. You take him off the floor and all of a sudden San Antonio is not just bigger, they're way bigger, they're way bigger. And so what scares me is like the spurs didn't shoot well. They were 33% from, I think they were 13 for 33 from three. I can't remember the exact number, but they were right around 30, 33% from 3 in this game. And they don't need to make threes to win this matchup. They just don't because they can get all these buckets on the interior with their guards bullying and with Victor women Yama on these inside seals. And again, the Thunder have advantages that they can try to play play with a little bit. Like I do think we'll see Chet Holmgren move over and guard Wemby for the most part the rest of the series because Alex Caruso and J Dub just can't. But like I, I from the tape after game one, I was like, man, I feel like the spurs actually have more things they can do better than the Thunder can in this matchup.
- [14:52]
Chad Millman
All right. Let's talk about the betting then, because right now at Hard Rock, the Thunder are still minus 115, the spurs minus 105 to win the series. I'm surprised that the price isn't a little bit less on the Thunder MVP odds. Relatively the same. Shea, minus 110. Wemby. Minus 105. Simon, I know NBA isn't your normal bag, but you still got a whole syndicate that is working the NBA. Is there anything you're hearing, anything interesting to you about this series? Now that we've got a game under our belt and the spurs are up one nothing. Is there even a little bit of value on the Thunder?
- [15:43]
Simon Hunter
I think for sure it's. We just talked about like this. People might have underestimated this, the San Antonio team and how they matched up with this OKC team. So you saw, I mean, even, even last night talking about that 1B3. My favorite part of him in that deep 3 was the benchmark of okcs in the frame shot. And they laugh in disgust, like, just pure disgust of like, what. What can we even do? Like this. What can you even do to this, man? What am I watching right now? Which is. That's how you know you're watching them special, right? When these guys, these best of the best athletes we're playing with the MVP are laughing disgust in their opponent being like, this is, this is terrifying. So I, I do think there's good value and I know some pros that like to value. It's that game one was a professional bet, right? That, that plus six and a half. I believe it might have, might have got up to seven, got bet back down that that was G. Clearly going to be the side for the pros. But I, I look at this as just we talk a time in basketball that, that winning that first game on the road, that can set the tone for the whole series. So I'm interested what Jason has to say because I'm, I'm kind of, you know, not running to the window after we're done the show, but I'm. I'm gonna get in my car and go make some bets here because it's like San Antonio feels like good value, especially at some books I'm looking right now, they're minus 105, minus 110. I know hard rocks, you know, tinker to 115 and 110. So I would shop around the serious price. There could be some really good value here, just in the fact that they're up 10 on the road right now. They Literally have the entire advantage. Even if they lose the next game, we're going back 1:1 to home. That was literally the plan all along for this. Since the San Antonio team.
- [17:19]
Chad Millman
Well before Jason jumps in, I do. Matt Mitchell just made a note. The Thunder were -260 before game one to win the series. So now -115. So it is dropped considerably. You know, I'm not discounting that, but Jason, please go ahead.
- [17:35]
Jason Timp
Yeah, I was really shocked by that to be honest, when I saw the line before the series because I thought it was fair to favor the Thunder. I picked the spurs to win the series, to be clear from the start. But I did think that the Thunder obviously were like, you know, like a 45 to 55 type of like coin flip, leaning slightly towards San Antonio where I thought they had a good chance to win. So I'm no professional handicapper, but I would have probably put it around like minus 150, maybe minus 130 to start the series. And so to me, now that the spurs have gotten to have one game one, I think it makes perfect sense for the spurs to be a slight favorite. So in that sense, I would argue that there is value on the San Antonio side. Not as much value as there was before the series. Like the, the, I think the spurs line was plus 210 before game one. Like, and I said that on my show in our series preview. I'm like, that's value side of this because this is very much a coin flip type of series and you're getting two to one odds on, on, on a team. And like Victor Women. Yama. I don't know, like there's a pathway for Shea to be the best player in the series by just hitting a bunch of clutch shots. Like, okay, three or four of the games are close and he just hits a bunch of these clutch shots and that puts him over the top. But like there is a chasm between those two players as like two way impact winning basketball. Players like Wemby looked like the best player on the floor by a mile last night. And it wasn't like, even if Shea would have made a few more of his jumpers, Wemby's just better. Like he's just better at basketball. And so they, they have the best player. They have physical advantages all over the court. An underrated part of this is like physical advantages to me matter more at home. Like because when you're at home and you're getting fed by that crowd and there's all that youthful exuberance and all that energy, it's like a buzzsaw. And them just being the bigger, stronger, more athletic team with three opportunities at home to get the three more wins that they need. I just think the spurs have a clear edge here.
- [19:31]
Chad Millman
You know, Wembanyama, at one point in that overtime, it's after he sinks that Steph Curry, 28 foot 3 from the hash as a 74 alien center. But then it's Castle just lobbing it into the paint where no one else can get it. It's like he was playing against kids in junior high. Jason, you say you like San Antonio to win some of the prices. You know that if, if that's the case, there may be value because San Antonio to win in seven is plus 750. San Antonio to win a. A sweep is plus 850. San Antonio to win in five is plus 850. In six, it's plus 275. Did you be so bold as to commit to a number of games? And if so, maybe that's where people want to put their money right now.
- [20:35]
Jason Timp
I said six before the series. What I thought would happen is the spurs would get game one, I believe, even beyond any sort of physical advantage stuff, which has actually given me a little bit more confidence in them. I just thought there would be an adjustment period, like going from playing the Suns and the Lakers. The gap in defensive personnel at every position group between those two teams and the Lakers or in the spurs is like a chasm. And there was very clearly going to be like, oh, this is very different kind of like adjustment period that you could tell. And like, I think that the, the Thunder are certainly not going to go down in a sweep. I think that there's, there's too much of an ability for them to get going in defense, in transition, off of their defense. Where I think it would get tricky is if the spurs won again tomorrow night. If they won again tomorrow night, I think I'd lean towards them in five, but I think this, I think six makes the most sense. The young team, the Thunder season on the line tomorrow, go out and get a win. Then the Thunder or then the spurs are just a buzzsaw in game three and four. Just too difficult to beat them with all their physical advantages in front of their home crowd. Then the Thunders save their season again in game five at home, and then the spurs close it out in six.
- [21:51]
Chad Millman
It didn't occur to me the spurs would win this series. The whole time I've been thinking, good for them, Great chance to get to the Finals, get that taste, and then next year, maybe it's for them, but maybe it changed. Maybe it's just changed right before our eyes. Maybe that game was the game that changes everything. Let's do a quick break from Hard Rock, coming back to talk about the Knicks and the Cavs. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. The second round of the NBA playoffs is here, and with Win or go home energy on the hardwood, same game parlays are a great way to stack picks built especially for the playoff action. If you're ever late to tip off, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all game long, from the first bucket to the final buzzer. Try your first bet on Hard Rock Bet today and you can score $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Hard Rock Bet has new promos daily, so open up the app right now to see what promo you've got today. And sure, Hard Rock Bet is Florida's only legal sportsbook, but you don't have to be in Florida. Join the party. Hard Rock Bet is also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan, with more states on the way. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and let's get the party started. Payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it in Ohio, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee or Virginia.
- [23:57]
Minky Couture Ad
It's cozy season, and nothing compares to wrapping yourself in a Minky Couture blanket. Luxuriously soft, perfectly warm, thoughtfully made from movie nights to chilly mornings, Minky Couture turns everyday moments into pure comfort. Once you feel it, you'll understand why it's called the Original Best Blanket Ever. Visit minky couture.com or a store near you and make this cozy season your softest one yet.
- [24:27]
Jonas Brothers
Liberty Mutual customizes your car and home insurance, and now we're customizing this rush hour ad to keep you calm, which could help your driving. And science says therapy is great for a healthy mindset. So enjoy this 14 second session on us.
- [24:39]
Jason Timp
I think you've done everything right and absolutely nothing wrong.
- [24:43]
Simon Hunter
In fact, anything that hasn't gone your way could probably be blamed on your father not being emotionally available because his father wasn't emotionally available, and so on.
- [24:51]
Jonas Brothers
And now that you're calm and healing, you're probably driving better too.
- [24:54]
Jason Timp
Liberty. Liberty.
- [24:55]
Chad Millman
Liberty.
- [24:56]
Jason Timp
Liberty.
- [24:58]
Jonas Brothers
Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it.
- [25:08]
Chad Millman
We.
- [25:08]
Jonas Brothers
We just contributed to it. First people to do podcasts. Pretty. Yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts, but this one's extra special. So how did we, how do we actually come up with the name hey Jonas? Guys, I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it and we were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes, I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing a bit for the podcast. People could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad hey Jonas and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that. Guys, listen to hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
- [25:57]
Robert Smigel
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you from funnier. This week my guests SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter.
- [26:16]
Jason Timp
Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.
- [26:18]
Robert Smigel
Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [26:27]
Chad Millman
We do have game two Oklahoma City six and a half totals 215. Simon, are you buying into a zigzag for the Thunder to cover a the same number that they ticked off adding before game one?
- [26:45]
Simon Hunter
I. I put a small bet on the adjusted line. I took OKC like minus 13 and a half points. So it was just. It feels like the natural. Yeah, just a natural game of a letdown. Right? Like we're talking here about the spurs team. They're a young team. That was an insane win. Like, if they come out and do win this game too, that shows that says more about OKC than it does about the spurs, right? Because okc, they've been there, done that. This is a championship pedigree team with the mvp. So it's like I just. This is the type of game you expect OKC to win by 20, in my opinion, because it's like they're small, they'll hit threes. That's going to be basically their whole game plan. And it's just, you know, dispersed like we've talked about. They're so long, they're so big. Can they keep it close? Can they steal another game? Yeah, they have the exact pieces to do it. I just, I just think mentally, I don't know how they come out there after that type of performance. And they're just, they're gonna be feeling so good in practice today. We're just pure rage right now for. Okay, we're all competitive here. We've all played sports. That, that loss, that taste at home, my God, they just, they cannot wait to get back on that floor. Okc. So yeah, this, like we're talking about, this playoff, it's must see. But yeah, for me, OKC adjusted line, I think that's where the value is in this one.
- [28:00]
Chad Millman
What do you think?
- [28:01]
Jason Timp
I like that a lot, actually, because the. So The spurs were 4 and 1 against the Thunder in the regular season. And the one win that the Thunder had kind of. It turned into a blowout. But it had this specific path. And the path, you know, in its own way, kind of showed up last night in the sense that the Thunder kind of blitzed the Cornet groups, which is to be expected. Cornet is a traditional big, and if you play traditional basketball against the Thunder, they're just better at it than you. But the Wemby just makes you play a very bizarre, alien brand of basketball, right? So, like, what ended up happening in the win in OKC was in the early third quarter, the Thunder had like a small lead, like a four point lead. And then the Cornet groups just got blitzed and it pushed the lead out to like a dozen or so. And then when Wemby came back in, the Thunder just made like a couple of plays and pushed it from like a dozen to like 18. And then it was like an 18 point game with like nine minutes left in the fourth quarter. Kind of just fell over and the spurs just kind of relaxed a little bit, and then the Thunder cruised from there. And the Thunder have always been an excellent, like, garbage time team because they have really good habits. They just play really hard all the time. They're not the kind of team that, like, concedes a big lead in garbage time. So I, I think that if, again, to Simon's point, like, I absolutely think the spurs can win tomorrow. Like, that is on the table. And they are well coached and they play super hard and they have lots of talent and lots of physical advantages. So don't be surprised if that's a close game and San Antonio's in the mix. But if OKC wins, I think it kind of follows that path. A cornet group in the late third just gets blitzed and it pushes the lead out to something crazy, like 16, 17 points. And then the game just kind of feels over and the spurs relax a little bit, and then the Thunder cruise. So I like the adjusted spread line.
- [29:46]
Chad Millman
Let's talk about the Knicks and the Caps. I say this as someone who's lived on the east coast forever. I think MSG is one of the most electric places to watch an NBA game. I love the atmosphere. I think the crowd, like, it's as democratic as it gets. You walk into MSG as a Knicks fan and. And there is no difference between the hedge funder sitting hedge funder sitting courtside and the plumber sitting in the 400 level or 300 level. Everyone, like, is on even keel as Knicks fans. And it is a glorious, glorious experience. And New York, when the Knicks are good, it is such a Knicks town. But, man, I think Knicks fans are insufferable. And I, I just. I don't want the Knicks to win this series. Jason, I want you to tell me how the Cavs can win this series. There is a. There's. There's long been a theory the team with the best player wins in series like this, but is Jalen Brunson the best player or is it Donovan Mitchell is the best athlete? Can you clarify and then tell me your thoughts on how the Cavs can win this? I don't want to know if you don't think they can win. I just want to know how you think they can win.
- [31:11]
Jason Timp
So I do think Jalen Brunson is just clearly a better player. I think that there is a, you know, certainly a talent level with Donovan when he's at his best, like when he's just in a groove that you could argue he's like, maybe another level of unstoppable as a scorer. But there's a game management piece which I've always thought is underrated with every shot creator in the NBA and it's been one of Donovan Mitchell's biggest weaknesses over the years, which is like understanding the flow of a game. Meaning hey, we have like 115 possessions tonight, so how are we going to play in this game? So that over 115 possessions. This works. Not like I like this shot. For me right now it's very much about viewing that bigger picture. And Jalen's just always been much better at managing that. The second piece of it is like I would argue this recent stretch from Jalen Brunson where he's playing off the ball more and there's a substantial drop off the the numbers with the way that the Knicks are playing on offense are so different. They were dead last in assist percentage last year. In the postseason only 50 of their made baskets were assisted. That number 61 this year, which is one of the top numbers in the in the NBA playoff field last year Carl Anthony towns averaged 1/6 of the assists that Cat is averaging this year. Cat had three double digit assist games in this postseason run so far he never had a single one in his career before that. Jalen Brunson 71 of his made field goals as a, as a, as a knick last year in the postseason were on the ball like pick and rolls, isos, post ups, everything like one on one handling the ball. Whereas this season that numbers dropped from 71 down to 55. And he is doing a ton of work off the ball as a screener and like running off of off ball action to get a catch instead of dribbling into the action. And what it's done is it's like turned him into this like Steph Curry mixed with Jalen Brunson kind of thing where Steph Curry had all this value off ball as a screener because guys would stay glued to him and other people would get open and Jalen Brunson's constantly getting his teammates open now, screening, using his threat off the ball. And Cat is doing a wonderful job orchestrating things at the top. And so they're just a fundamentally different team than they've really ever been in this era. Like even just compared to the regular season, Cat is averaging well over twice as many assists as he did in the big Cavs win that they had post deadline. Cat only had two assists like they were. I watched the film from that game in prep for that series and it just doesn't look like what the Knicks are playing like right now. And on one hand that makes it kind of hard to evaluate them because they're basically a new basketball team with the way they're playing. But on the other hand, I would say that that is the far better version of this team because everyone is involved and there is much more in the way of like flow and rhythm in their offense. And instead of just Mikhail Bridges and OG Anunoby functioning as spot up players off the ball, they're getting in and out of screens off the ball, they're getting catches and opportunities to attack with the ball. Like there's just so much more variety. It's making it so that Brunson doesn't run out of gas. Like every year they just ran out of gas. Like Brunson would just get tired from playing Brunson ball and they. And he would get fatigued. And this year's team is just attacking so much smarter. All their minutes are way down. Like OG Anunoby's leading the team in minutes at like 35 minutes per game. Compare that to last year under Thibodeau where they were just working them all to the ground every single night. So like this is just a much smarter, much more sophisticated Knicks team that's attacking in a way with way more variety. And Donovan Mitchell is very much like that. Game seven was the outlier. He has been very much classic tunnel vision Donovan Mitchell forcing the issue, taking bad shots. And he hasn't looked as explosive in terms of his ability to get dribble penetration as he has in previous years. Like, I just think Brunson's clearly better and I. The Knicks will have some issues. The Cavs have layered rim protection which is very different than what they faced in the previous rounds. Like Jalen Johnson and Yeka Kongwu. Sorry Simon, but Joel Embiid was kind of ass in these circumference semis. So like there's a certain amount of, like there's a. There's a layered rim protection with Evan Mobley and Jared Allen which is very different for this team to deal with. And I certainly think that, that the Cavs have a chance to win, but I sometimes it's just as simple to me as I think the Knicks are a better basketball team led by a better player with home court advantage. And like not overthink this. I just think the Knicks are going to win.
- [35:40]
Chad Millman
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- [36:58]
Simon Hunter
like a booth, and he, he turned
- [37:00]
Chad Millman
and drank something, which is like an unusual thing to see somebody do in a bar setting. I said, well, what was that? He goes, oh, I'm just drinking this thing that helps when we're out drinking. And I said, is it Zbiotics?
- [37:14]
Jason Timp
He said, yeah, yeah.
- [37:15]
Simon Hunter
Have you heard of it? I said, yeah, I had one before we came out.
- [37:17]
Chad Millman
So I was already very familiar with the, with the work of this tremendous product because it's what I need to feel my best the next day, which, you know, we don't bounce back like we used to. Like you said, Jeff, we do not. From draft day to basketball playoff games, don't let a rough next day keep you on the sidelines. Drink Pre Alcohol to stay ahead of the game and make the most of every sunny Saturday. Go to zebiotics.com/sharp or square to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use Sharp or Square at checkout, Zebiotics is backed with a 100% money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to ZBiotics.com sharpersquare and use the code sharp or square at checkout for 15% off.
- [38:19]
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- [39:20]
Jonas Brothers
Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news.
- [39:22]
Jason Timp
What's the news?
- [39:23]
Jonas Brothers
Huge news. We created our own podcast called hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it, we just contributed to it. First people to do podcasts. Pretty. Yeah, pretty wide range of starting, but this one's extra special. So how do we, how do we actually come up with the name hey Jonas? Guys, I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it and well, we were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes, I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad hey Jonas. And offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that. Guys, listen to hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
- [40:19]
Robert Smigel
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to the David Letterman help make you funnier this week. My guests SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter.
- [40:38]
Jason Timp
Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.
- [40:41]
Robert Smigel
Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [40:50]
Chad Millman
Mike Brown, phenomenal coaching job. What a great match for team Town and coach. Such a 180 from TIBs and such a great personality to manage the chaos. Simon Nicks minus 275 Cavs plus 210. The series ends in a sweep. Plus 425 five games plus 266 games plus 247 games plus 210. Have you or any of your syndicate brothers played anything that is familiar here?
- [41:29]
Simon Hunter
No. I know they have futures on the Knicks so that's obviously they have a heavy interest in them so they probably hedged those positions. But the big one I feel like we keep talking about is just they feel like Donovan Mitchell is going to go for 50 at the Garden. Like in one of these games he's just going to go for it and I, that's the type of thing I'm going to take a position on that I'm just going to bet heavy and you know, I'm not telling people what to do with those type of bets but I like to stack those things. I like to really go forward. You can really stack those parlay type of bets. I, I could just see it happening in the type of game where he just is going to try to take over because guys just act different in the Garden, right? It is a different spot, a space and I've seen him have success there in his past career games. So I like that angle of it because I am, I'm with Jason. I just, you know, it's best when anything can happen. It just feels like the Knicks are a better team playing better right now. More, more together and you know, again the league doesn't have agendas. The refs, I feel like they're going to cater more towards this. Like it just feels that way going into it where it's like this is such a unique opportunity for the league to get the Knicks to the NBA Finals. My God, like this. Does it get more better? Does it get better than this for the NBA? Like this is their dream scenario. Like you just said, they have the worst fans, Chad. They are the best fans. They are the die hard fans.
- [42:49]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [42:50]
Simon Hunter
In this league like the Lakers, Boston, they have not been starved anywhere near to what these Knicks fans have been stars with. So yeah, I, that the Garden is going to be going crazy and I love that Donovan Mitchell angle because it's, it feels like we kind of already know how this series is going to play out. So maybe I'll take a little bit of, you know, Nixon 5 or Nixon 6. But just individual game wise, I'm going to be looking at bed Donovan Mitchell on the road. They put up a ton of points.
- [43:15]
Chad Millman
Look, there are some players who are a perfect match for the Garden in style of play, in attitude and personality. Donovan Mitchell from outside New York City, from Connecticut, like this is, that is A per. That is a great call, Simon. Great call.
- [43:35]
Simon Hunter
Again, not me. I wish I was this good at basketball. I just, I spent a ton of time with guys who this is their lives and it's like I, I'm a fly on the wall. I say nothing, but I take in everything. And that's when they talk about Donovan Mitchell for two hours, about going to the Garden. I'm gonna pay attention to that. It's like, okay, these guys are onto something. So, yeah, hopefully it comes through for us.
- [43:54]
Chad Millman
Jason, do you have an opinion on how long the series will go? What you think that you clearly think the Knicks are going to win in
- [44:05]
Jason Timp
how many games really quickly to piggyback with on what Simon said, like, Donovan did just have his best game of the postseason and he's generally been a little bit hot and cold and his pull up three point shot in particular has been the thing that's kind of left him and has caused him to not be as consistent as he typically is. And he hit a couple in game seven, including a big one in the, in the fourth quarter that was kind of like an ice or a crowd silencer. And I think like to Simon's point, like that's if he gets his pull up three, going 50 is always on the table with Donovan just because of how good of a driver he is as like a counter to that. So I, I like that is like if you're looking for something to bet on the cab side, just something with Donovan's point totals. When you factor in what the Cavs are good at, which again specifically their ability to attack the guard position, that puts them in a position where they can put Jalen Brunson and Carl Anthony Towns in space. And I do think they're going to get good shots and they have good weak side shooters. So there's going to be games that they win in this series. Where I, where I find it difficult for them to keep up stems a lot from the way that Donovan Mitchell and James Harden get attacked, which is their weakness defensively is actually like attention span, like paying attention off the ball. And so in a weird way, the Knicks playing this new like let's pick on you with off ball screens and now you have to communicate switches and pay attention and not like relax for five seconds. That is actually kind of a thing that I expect the Cavs to experience a lot of like mistake making that leads to like runs for the Knicks. But I think that I think in six makes the most sense. I think that they've proven the ability to Close out series on the road in this playoff run and to play really well on the road. And so I think what ends up happening is kind of, I think they probably go up two, zero, steal one and at some point in like games three through five and then end up closing it out in game six in Cleveland.
- [46:00]
Chad Millman
Two questions to close us out here, Jason. Knicks minus six and a half, game one. Do you like the Cavs? Do you like the Knicks? The total, hold on, the total is 217 and a half. Do you like that instead? First question.
- [46:18]
Jason Timp
I actually think I like the Cavs side of that for two reasons. One, they've been playing basketball and the Knicks have not. So there's a little bit of a rust factor which I think will benefit them. Two, it's a little bit of like a breath of fresh air going from that big physical Detroit team to like a less physical Knicks team. I think the Knicks are also big and physical, just not to the same extent that that Detroit is. The last thing that I would say is like that adjustment period thing I talked about, like how like it took a minute for the Thunder to kind of be like, oh, this is different. I think that's going to similarly be what happens when the Knicks face layered rim protection with Jared Allen and Evan Mobley. Like, I think it'll take them just a little bit to be like, okay, our shots are coming from different spots on the floor than they they were in the last couple rounds. So I just expect it to be a close game. And if it's going to be a close game, then give me the team that's getting six and a half points.
- [47:12]
Chad Millman
All right, last question. You've kind of hinted where you think the finals will end up. And, and as our basketball correspondent, you will be back on before the finals. But now is a very good time with four teams left to get some futures value on finalists. So the Thunder right now are plus 130, spurs plus 150. Again, all odds from Hard Rock Bet. Knicks plus 475. Cavs plus 1750. So if you're putting your money anywhere right now, Jason, where are you putting it?
- [47:50]
Jason Timp
I think the best value by far is on the Knicks. The Knicks have beat the spurs twice this season. They just are a very different basketball team than like, let's be clear, like the Thunder are a better team than the Spurs. The reason why I think the spurs are going to win is very matchup based. Why? Because the Thunder are a dribble drive team. They thrive on guards getting dribble penetration and kicking out to the perimeter. And so Wemby just counters that super well and they're so athletic on the perimeter that they can rotate well and make shooters uncomfortable. The Knicks are fundamentally different because of the way that Karl Anthony Towns kind of inverts your spacing as like a traditional stretch five. They are a five out basketball team and so it creates these dynamics where Wemby's not at the rim as much as he typically would be. The record, I would still pick the spurs to beat the Knicks, but I think it's closer than people think. And so if I'm getting that line with the Knicks, I just think that's the best value compared to basically even odds on the the Thunder and the Spurs.
- [48:54]
Chad Millman
Dude, no wonder you're blowing up. This is just great stuff. Jason Timf hoots tonight. Listen to him on the Volume Podcast Network. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [49:24]
Robert Smigel
Johnson
- [49:27]
Chad Millman
is fouled and hit Larry Johnson
- [49:33]
Simon Hunter
has hit his cross career quota of wild shots today.
- [49:37]
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- [50:13]
Chad Millman
they matter even more.
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- [50:38]
Jonas Brothers
Hey guys, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.
- [50:40]
Jason Timp
I'm Joe.
- [50:40]
Jonas Brothers
I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it, we just contributed to it. First people to do podcasts.
- [50:52]
Chad Millman
We get to ask other people questions
- [50:53]
Jonas Brothers
because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
- [51:07]
Robert Smigel
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you you funnier this week. My guests SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter.
- [51:26]
Jason Timp
Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.
- [51:28]
Robert Smigel
Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [51:37]
Jonas Brothers
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [51:40]
Chad Millman
Guaranteed Human.