← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NBA FINALS GAME 4 BETTING UPDATE: Knicks vs. Spurs
00:42:11
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- [00:00]
Jason
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
- [00:04]
Shad Milton
If you've been sitting on a business idea for a while, consider this the sign to take action. It can even be made official today by creating a website with WIX Harmony. Just tell WIX Harmony what you want and it will build the entire site, business features included. And everything can still be edited by hand. It's your website, your call. Try it@wix.com that's wix.com this is Jeff
- [00:33]
Jeff T
T from the Club 520 podcast. This is a performance you do not want to miss. The Dell xps. Powered by Intel Core Ultra. It's got the sauce. We're talking speed, style, stamina, bam. And a long lasting battery life unheard of in this league. Look at the hustle. Is there anything a laptop can't do? The Dell XPS baby. Built for those who have the right moves. Find yours@dell.com XPS built for you.
- [01:01]
Daniel Cormier
This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. Power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either make the move or you miss the moment. That's why you need a network that's just as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless, you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in the action from the walkouts to the knockouts. Now that's a total power move. Make your total power move today. Visit total wireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless Store. Additional terms apply. See totalwireless.com for details.
- [01:37]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. This summer, stock up on your favorite brands for both you and your home. Now through June 23rd, get big deals on everyday essentials from Proctor and Gamble. Shop in store or online for savings on items like Swiffer Power Mop, Febreze Plug Warmer, Herbal Essence shampoo, Old Spice 2 in one, Crest Scope toothpaste, Secret Deodorant Spray, and Head and Shoulder Shampoo. Get these deals before they're gone. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
- [02:07]
Shad Milton
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Shad Milton. I am Joy. As always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:28]
Simon Hunter
John. I know you're a busy man, so I'll make This quick over the weekend as Chad knows, many of you might know too. My third favorite sport to watch is poker. I love Texas Hold'. Em, love poker. Right now it's the World Series of Poker. And I had to bring this up because it's, it was such an incredible run. Basically there's tournaments going on right now in Vegas, World Series of Poker. And there's this guy with the last name hall, which Chad, you might know him, he's a, he's a pretty well known guy in the DFS leagues. Like he does daily fantasy and he had two, two entries in Circus Survivor last year. So he basically was in the Survivor contest, won a ton of money and he's a really well known poker player, this guy. So he's basically heads up against this woman who I've respected a long time named Kristen Foxen. And she's a well known professional player. Kind of blew up I guess in like 2018, 2019. Really, really well respected. She's basically in this Hyrule contest playing against him, heads up and took him down with pocket aces in the final hand. And you know, I think she won 1.7 million. But for women player, it was a huge deal, right? Probably the best women's player ever to play the game. The fact that she went into this group of the best of the best, right? It's only professionals playing. Maybe some billionaire millionaires are in this group, but it's 25k to get into this tournament. It's all sharks, it's all killers. The fact that Kristen went in and won it, I think her husband, another professional player with the last same last name Fox and was the one that gave her the bracelet. It was a pretty epic moment of someone that loves Texas Hold' Em and loves that whole gambling space.
- [04:01]
Shad Milton
That's really cool. That's a great story. World Series of Poker is always awesome. It's super fun. And actually I was in Vegas when it started a couple weeks ago. Speaking of $25,000, that was about the get in price for games to the NBA Finals, game three at Madison Square Garden. I exaggerate, but not by much because tickets were insane. The vibe in the city was insane. The vibe in the stadium was ridiculous. I thought it was going to be impossible for the Knicks to live up to the hype and the expectation of what was happening in that stadium. So the score in the series is now 2:1 and we're going to bring in our very special guest and good friend Jason Timf, host of Hoops Tonight podcast and the volume NBA Expert. But before we do that, Matt Mitchell, please come in because you got a really quick, funny story from this past weekend.
- [05:01]
Matt Mitchell
Thank you, Chad. And I'll do this quickly as I can, because I want to get to the. Obviously, the NBA talk. So last Saturday here in Wisconsin was a beautiful day. It was just a perfect June day here in America's heartland. So, like a lot of dads, I got to spend that beautiful Saturday in a roller skating rink in deep Ozaukee County, Wisconsin, surrounded by farms, in a single level cinder block room taken basically directly from 1976. It was inside this roller rink. Gerald Ford is still president. It was. It was great. I'm there for a child's birthday with my children. I love College World Series. College World Series is one of my favorite sporting events every year. I bet a lot on it. It's. It's absolutely exhilarating to watch if you haven't enjoyed. We get there, and I want to put the super regional on between Georgia and Mississippi State. Cause I have a lot of money on Georgia. We get in, they have one television. And to give you an idea of how dangerous roller skating is generally, it looked like there was someone in the DJ booth with, like, a sniper rifle shooting children. That's how many kids are getting in unbelievable accidents. One after the other. They're going down. Everyone looks like it's. It looks like, you know, I mean, Gerald Ford is president. We're in Cambodia. It's like that. And they're also like, Cambodia. It is sweltering inside. So it's also like, picture. It's also 100 degrees and very dark. They got one TV, golf channels on. It's not even a tournament. Just go, okay, I got to get this TV changed. And I look and I see a child is working. There's like a kid I Learned. He was 14. He's got one Bluetooth headset in, like, he works at a. Like a bodega. And I. I flag him down and I go, hi, could you put on the. The Georgia baseball game on espn? And he goes, I'm really sorry. They tell me I'm not allowed to change the channel. I said, would $10 change that rule? And this kid says, it sure would. Any disappears for a while, finds a remote. He and I are next to each other, shoulder to shoulder. And he's like, five, two. Shoulder to shoulder with each other. And he's changing the channel. And without looking at me, he goes, got a lot of money on this game. And I go.
- [07:36]
Shad Milton
I go, yeah.
- [07:39]
Matt Mitchell
No response. And immediately I'm like, this is my guy. Game on goes and squirrels back the remote wherever he found it. And he goes back to being the hardest working man in Ozaukee County, Wisconsin. I'm watching this game. This game is insane. There were 10 home runs in the game. There were 11 the game before in this three game series. And aim to win this game to move on and advance to Omaha. I am dying. Just like all of the children within my view. My own wiping out. And there's home runs. They're winning and losing and winning and losing. I am dying. The kids, by the way, are safe. They're with my wife. My son has learned to rollerblade in one hour. Incredible. His old man. I hate roller skating. I hate rollerblading. I don't do any of that stuff. Despite my parents many attempts. He comes over and he's so proud and wet with sweat. And I say, I can't believe he did it. Congratulations, son. What do you want? He goes, I want a slushie. I know just the guy to serve it to us. So I go to this kid and I go, had like, I'd like a large slushy, please. Because it's 1976. It was like $2. I go, okay, here's 10. And I winked at him. I go, you can keep that, brother. He goes, wow, thanks man. I go, do, we're all in this together now. We're in the thick of it over in Athens, Georgia. And he just nods very knowingly because he'd been keeping his eye on it now too. My son gets a slushy, everything's great, go back to the game. It's the bottom of the eighth, Georgia's up. They give up a maybe 7,500 foot home run in Mississippi State that's still circling Earth's atmosphere. Now they're up by one. And I turn my head in absolute disgust. I look over and I accidentally make eye contact with this kid again. And he's spraying the deodorizing spray into a pair of roller skates. And he says to me with no emotion, that's the last thing we needed right now. Like does this. This kid absolutely rules. They go on. They win the game in extra innings. It is, it is absolutely thrilling. They get the final strikeout. I'm like, yes. And I now it's time to go. The party's over. I'm like, yes. And I turn, he is checking somebody out. He's like collecting money from some, from a parent. But he's pointing directly to his like nine o' clock Right at me, because maybe he was listening to the game and one of his Bluetooth. I don't know. But without even making eye contact with me, he pointed directly at me so we could share one final moment. So, Frank at the roller rink in Ozarki County, Wisconsin. Bless your heart. You're one of America's very finest teenagers. And I look forward to one day, inevitably, you being my boss, because that's the trajectory you're on.
- [10:39]
Shad Milton
I mean, that's a great story, and I love when, you know, betting brings teenagers and grown men together. The fact we know it's still 1976 in that roller rink and in that county, they got a teenager named Frank.
- [10:53]
Matt Mitchell
Yep. I. I actually. I'm not 100% sure any of that actually happened or that he really exists. That's how otherworldly it felt. I felt like I was in kind of one of those. In between, you know, kind of nebulous.
- [11:04]
Shad Milton
It was like a betting fever dream.
- [11:06]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah, exactly. It was great.
- [11:08]
Shad Milton
A parenting bedding fever dream.
- [11:10]
Matt Mitchell
For those of you keeping score at home, father of the year voting is still open, so hopefully I'll be able to search to first place. All right, good luck, fellas.
- [11:17]
Shad Milton
Let's get in. Let's. Let's just bring in Jason. Let's bring in Jason. We can talk about the game last night.
- [11:23]
Jason
Like, are they juicing the bats or something? What's up with these 10 home runs in every single game? My goodness.
- [11:29]
Shad Milton
Man, the College World Series, the men's and women's College World Series has been just completely nuts and exhilarating, as was the game last night. Jason, I don't know about you. I thought. I thought there was no way the spurs were going to lose. And even when they were down 7 in that sort of run at the end of the first half, it felt like, how are the spurs down 7? The Knicks haven't done anything in this game. And then they came back and they put themselves in position to win and they pretty much controlled the game once they retook the lead. But, man, that whole game was a vibe. It was just. It was almost too good to be true. There's no way the Knicks could have lived up to expectations last night. No way.
- [12:11]
Jason
Yeah. So, ironically, when I was watching the game live, I had more of a like, oh, the Knicks are going to come back and win this thing, kind of feel, mainly just because of the fact that I have felt like when the Knicks really tighten the screws defensively, the spurs offense is just too flawed and they kind of fall Apart, that was how I felt in the moment. But one of the most common things that'll happen to me is I'll have a certain, you know, it happens about one out of every three games. I'll have a certain feel from a game watching it live and then I'll re watch it and I'll feel completely different about it. And this was actually one of those games. I did my film session this morning and for those of you guys who are listening, if you want to see the clips, I have like 60 clips that I picked from the game in a film session that is on the Hoops Tonight feed. But I agree with you, Chad. I didn't think the Knicks generated many good shots at all in the game. And I thought one of the big stories of that game was even when the Knicks went on their runs, it was kind of like insane shot making that felt somewhat unsustainable. Like there was a run in the late first half where like OG Anunoby hits like a crazy contested three in the left corner over Dylan Harper and then Victor Wembanyama kind of closes out a little short on Brunson off the right wing, but he hits like a 29 foot three off of the right wing. It's just like a crazy shot. And then he like he had another one that was kind of deep off the top. And it just like throughout the game, whether it was like Josh Hart hitting threes or OG Anunoby hitting some tough shots, Clarkson hit like a prayer off the top of the key. Late in the game there was really a big difference in the quality of shots where ironically for the spurs, they kind of sealed the game on a prayer. Steph Castle hit a prayer off the right wing, but mixed around that was a bunch of wide open. Looks like Devin Vassell had a wide open three off the right wing that he missed. Victor Wimanyama had a wide open three off the left wing that he missed. Dylan Harper had three or four wide open threes that he missed. It was kind of funny that the one that went in was the crazy Steph Castle prayer at the tail end of the clock. But the general dynamic at play that's kind of started to take shape over the final three halves that I think is at least slightly concerning for the Knicks is they've just kind of reverted to this Jalen Brunson ball. And I trimmed in my film session today. There were like seven or eight possessions in that game where he didn't pass the ball a single time and dribbled the clock out literally all 24 seconds and just threw something bad up at the tail end of the clock. And Cat had his least involved game of the series to this point. And even when in the brief windows of time where he was involved, I thought the Knicks offense looked considerably better. That was that kind of run that they went on in the first half with Jordan Clarkson and Jose Alvarado on the floor alongside him with OG Anunoby. And so I think, like, there is some reality to the fact that Brunson is not the advantage for the Knicks in this series. If you dig into the personnel groupings, Cat is an advantage. He's done a wonderful job on Wemby. One on one, he's. They struggled in pick and roll last night, but in one on ones, he continues to defend Wemby really well on the wings. Like Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, their big physical wings have given problems to the spurs perimeter players. The weakest point in this matchup for them is Brunson is a small guard who's going to struggle to get great separation against this depth of great perimeter defenders. And so I really think that if there's. If it's. I think the Knicks are the better team and they should win. But. But they can lose this series if they continue to play the way that they did in the last three halves, which is basically just everyone stand back and let Brunson dribble the air out of the basketball. I just think it plays directly into the spurs hands.
- [16:00]
Simon Hunter
Let me give you some Brunson numbers real quick, Chad. Yeah, yeah, numbers. All right. Because I, I noticed right away, because we talked about Brunson, obviously, the last show. He has 82 points on 81 shots. He is a minus 13 over three games in which the Knicks have won two. He has 13 assists, 13 turnovers on a 40 usage rate.
- [16:21]
Jason
Yes.
- [16:22]
Simon Hunter
The Knicks have a 108 offensive rating with him on the court. They have 132 with him off the court. Those numbers, like, I had a buddy send me that. I was like, oh, my God, this came for you. And I looked up. It's. Those are all real, factual data. So, Jason, what can the Knicks do? Like I just gave you all those numbers, is he. Are they just going to keep beating him up, wearing him down? Because he'll keep getting worse if they keep throwing their bodies into him. Like you just said, any man's gonna wear down, right? That. That might have punishment on, you know, every two nights that's going to break down a player like Brunson. So I just. When as soon as I saw him was like, I can't wait to hear Jason's take on Brunson right now. Because that, to me, is alarming.
- [16:59]
Jason
That 40 usage rate is insane. That's like. That's like the very peak of Luka Doncic ball, like. Like dribbling the air out of the basketball every single time I. So here's the thing. When I watched the film, one of the things that stood out to me, I think, I don't want to blame Brunson entirely for this, because one of the things that happened in that game, and you could feel it in the opening minutes, the spurs came out and they picked up full court and they were in everybody's jersey, like, right from the jump. And there were two early possessions, one with Mikhail Bridges, where he dribbled up against pressure and then called for a screen champagne, switched on to him and came in with high hands, and Mikhail Bridges threw the ball out of bounds. Then on the very next possession, Josh Hart has the ball. He dribbles against pressure, he picks up his dribble, panics, and throws the ball out of bounds. And so on early possessions, you could tell Mikhail and Josh were really struggling to kind of just handle the ball. I think when you. Speaking of personnel groupings, the one weakness, personnel wise, that the. That the. The Knicks have compared to the. The Thunder, or, excuse me, the Spurs. Sorry, it's been a wild couple. Yeah, the. The spurs have three on the floor. Most like, they close. They close the game with all three on the floor at the same time. They have three awesome guards that all can dribble the ball like that, have professionally dribbled the basketball their entire lives that have run hundreds and hundreds of ball screens for their teams every season. And they specialize in handling pressure. Dylan Harper, Darren Fox and Steph Castle. After Brunson, it's a lot of guys who are like, yeah, they can dribble, but that's not what they do. You know, like Mikhail Bridges, can he put the ball on the floor, make a play? But, I mean, he came into the league as a three and D guy, you know, like OG Anunoby certainly can make a play off the bounce. He made some plays off the bounce last night, but he's. Kawhi Leonard is a role player, you know, like Josh Hart. Again, not a professional ball handler, Kat. Not a professional ball handler. And so one of the things that I think happened last night is the spurs came with their hellacious. We are not going down 3, 0 defensive effort with ball pressure and everything And I think all the dudes panicked and they were like, you do it. You do. Just gave the ball to Brunson. And so I think in a lot of ways, it's on the Knicks to not panic under the pressure and to stay in their offense and stay in the way that they like to play. And so, you know, for instance, did you guys know that Carl Anthony Towns has zero points in the fourth quarter in this series?
- [19:40]
Shad Milton
I did not know that.
- [19:42]
Jason
Zero points.
- [19:43]
Shad Milton
You can't be Carl Anthony Townsend disappear in the fourth quarter.
- [19:46]
Jason
Again, I want to blame Cat partially here in the sense that, like, there's a certain amount of, like, either go up to the top of the key and demand the basketball, or go to Mike Brown and be like, hey, give me the fricking basketball, right? So I don't want to just solely blame Brunson. I think it's everyone's fault. I think it's Brunson's fault for being like, I do this. I do dribble against pressure. This is what I do best. And I'm going to confront this problem by doing the thing that I've done my entire life. But that plays directly into San Antonio Sandstone. It's also Mike Brown's fault for not getting the group together and being like, hey, we have to do this instead. It's also Carl Anthony Town's fault for not advocating for himself more. Everyone involved is to blame. But the baseline fact is, for three halves now, the Knicks have completely degenerated down into Brunson ball. And as Simon laid out with the numbers, it is simply not working. And it really hasn't worked at any point in the series because, again, that's the one. Trying to score from the guard position is how you lose to the spurs because of the way their defense is set up. That doesn't mean Brunson can't be involved. My thing, and I called out a bunch of examples of this in the film, when Brunson attacks as part of the flow, whether it's, you know, Carl Anthony Town starts the action in the post, draws a second defender, now we're in rotation, or it's Brunson screens for somebody. I love when guards like him screen for people because they always bring two to them and that person has an opportunity to turn the corner. However it is, Brunson needs to be involved. They're not winning this series without Brunson averaging, you know, 20, 25 points a game. But his buckets need to come more in the flow, and the team needs to emphasize more of an more of breaking the defensive down a defense down incrementally through multiple attacks rather than Jalen Brunson dribbling there out of the basketball and taking a bad shot at the end of the shot clock. Because like, frankly, like I do believe if both teams are playing at their very best defensively, meaning like both teams are bringing all the force playing super hard, that the Knicks have more ways to score. They do. But it doesn't matter if they don't actually utilize all those ways to score if they play that straight up hero ball with Brunson. The bottom line is is like look at the way that the spurs won that game. Like Harper had a stretch in the first half and then Steph Castle had a stretch in the first half and had a big stretch late in the game. Dear Fox hits the shot. That ice is the game. There's just they have just more guys who can do it so they're not going to fatigue and they have more advantages that they can go after. So like I just think it's really important for the Knicks to kind of remember how they got here here and not kind of degenerate to how they ended up losing in previous playoff runs.
- [22:36]
Jeff T
This is Jeff t. From the Club 520 podcast. Oh my goodness. Now this is a performance you do not want to miss. The Dell xps powered by Intel Core Ultra. It's got the sauce. We're talking speed, style, stamina, bam. And a long lasting battery life unheard of in this league. So whether you're using it for the next level, creativity, never ending productivity, or the entertainment that has you on the edge of your seat, this laptop is your mvp. Just look at the hustle. Is there anything you can't do? From the first second of the action all the way through to overtime, this thing is a powerhouse. The Dell xps built for those with all the right moves. Built for you. 5 technology built to take your game up a notch@dell.com XPS
- [23:16]
Ryan Seacrest
hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this summer. Stock up on your favorite brands for both you and your home. Now through June 23rd. Get big deals on everyday essentials from Proctor and Gamble. Shop in store or online for savings on items like Swiffer Power Mop, Febreze Plug Warmer, Herbal Essence Shampoo, Old Spice, two in one, Crest Scope Toothpaste, Secret Deodorant Spray, and Head and Shoulder Shampoo. Get these deals before they're gone. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
- [23:46]
Daniel Cormier
This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. All UFC fighters know power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either make the move or you miss the moment. That's why you need a network that's as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless, you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in on all the action, from the walkouts to the knockouts. You'll never miss a moment. That's coverage that you can count on for every single round. So when the moment happens, you're not catching up. You're already there. Now that that's a total power move. In the ufc, power isn't given. It's taken. So make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wallet store. 5G access requires a 5G capable device in a 5G service area. Monthly rates on the Total Base 5G Unlimited plan for new subscribers applies only to the monthly rate for your plan. Additional terms apply. See website for details.
- [24:41]
Jason
Number one Hits Millions of Records sold Awards Sold out Tours. You think the Jonas Brothers are satisfied? Nope. It's podcast time.
- [24:49]
Ryan Seacrest
We get to ask other people questions
- [24:50]
Jason
because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. 8 Jonas is available now, and their first guest is a big one. Paul Rudd. You know, Steve Carell is a great singer. Can he tell you not to audition the Office or something? I told him, whoa, we were filming Anchorman.
- [25:03]
Matt Mitchell
Clearly I was the idiot. Thank God he didn't listen to me, right?
- [25:07]
Jason
Listen to hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [25:13]
Shad Milton
So on the spur side of feels, to me, there's something freaky going on whenever Wemby is out of the game. Forget about what they're incapable of doing defensively and how that's when the lanes open up and the drives and the wings and even cats are able to get to the basket. It almost feels like they start shooting worse at the other end of the floor, too. And I couldn't decide. Last night I was talking to my kid about this. Is it a coincidence? Is there something mechanical in the way the offense is structured? But they're getting open looks. You talked about, you know, Dylan Harper missed a bunch of open looks. And you know, Johnson could not hit any shots like the sixth man of the year, even though he was a plus 14, which was shocking when I saw that this morning because it looked like he was the reason why they might lose that game. Okay, why does their offense start to crater so much when B is out? Even when they're getting open? Looks like they're just, they, they. They're just missing.
- [26:21]
Jason
So there's something to be said, I think, about, like, the difference between, you know, how confident you feel as a group when your stars on the floor versus when they're not. I think, like, the easiest way that that manifests really is on the other end of the floor. Like, the cornet groups are just getting shredded. Like, when cornet is on the floor, the floor, they're getting outscored by 20 points per 100 possessions. They have a 117 defensive rating in those groups, which is really bad, especially for this level of basketball. And so I think part of it is, like, if they're scoring every time, it can cause a certain additional pressure on shot making on the other end of the floor. Like, to put it very simply, during the cornet groups, that's when MSG is on fire. Because, like, yes, because that's. Because that's when they're going on runs.
- [27:06]
Simon Hunter
The.
- [27:06]
Jason
On the offensive end. I do think that there is something to be said about, like, you know, the most underrated part of what Wemby brings offensively is just his role gravity. When he rolls to the basket, everyone follows him. There was a play in the second half of this game that I thought was really telling. He's on the left wing. Mitchell Robinson's guarding him. Devin Vassell sets a back screen for him. Mitchell Robinson gets caught on the back screen. Wemby rolls and is open at the basket. Steph Castle throws a pass over the top. It's a little too high. Wemby catches it almost behind the backboard, and he goes back up. And he misses a layup. But on the play, three nicks come flying at him when he catches the ball in the lob and when he misses the layup. And so as a result, when he misses, Dylan Harper just comes right in front of the rim and grabs his ball and puts it back in the basket with no resistance. Because again, Wemby drew three defenders in when he rolled to the basketball. I've shared this stat on my show before. I don't think I've shared it here before, but this season, the spurs actually generated the most corner threes in the history of NBA basketball. And a big part of that was the simple dynamic. When Wemby rolls to the basket, there's just a lot of defenders that just coalesce around him and so like that. That's one of the big reasons I think Wemby has clearly proven himself to be the best player in the world in this playoff run. He's averaging 29 points and 10 rebounds with. With five stocks per game in the steals plus blocks in this series. On 59 true shooting. In a series where no one's efficient, he's efficient. And the simple fact is when he rolls to the basket, good stuff happens even when he's not doing anything else. Offensively, last night was actually a game where they scored on the roll pretty effectively. Wemby scored 12 points on rolls to the rim last night. That was the most he scored on rolls to the rim in the entire postseason to this point. I think the guards deserve some credit for that. There's also some really weird plays early in the game where Cat was bizarrely like kind of going way out to the level of screens and letting Wemby roll behind him kind of reminded me of Game 1 against Cleveland where they were randomly doubling him with him a lot. So there's some stuff that the Knicks can clean up for sure. But I. I do think that Victor Wembanyama. There's a certain baseline shot quality you get with him. You kind of just have to hope guys miss.
- [29:20]
Shad Milton
All right, that's. That's a really good point about Wemby. And. And if the other team keeps scoring and you miss one or two shots, that's when the lead starts to expand. The margin for error is just so much less. You kind of have to be perfect offensively because you're not going to be perfect defensively. Really interesting point on that. All right, so game four, NBA finals tomorrow night, 8:30pm Eastern. Spurs are looks like one and a half point underdogs. The total is 216 and a half. Spurs plus 110 on the moneyline. Nicks minus 125. I gotta tell you, I'm totally torn what my instinct is on this. I was blown away by the atmosphere at msg, even watching it on television. And I feel like it was almost too much. Like I said this at the top of the show. There's no way the Knicks were going to be able to match that kind of energy. I feel like now they've seen it. I think the edge goes back to the Knicks. Simon, I want to get Jason's analysis, but is a better. What do you think of my. My instincts?
- [30:34]
Simon Hunter
It could. I would say that they were totally unfazed. Right. The Spurs. It just felt like I I couldn't believe how they bounced back after the way the first half ended. Right, because they went after Brunson. The Knicks totally route around Brunson and they came out and just totally dominated that second half, that spurs team. And just, you know, as. As much as props as we're giving to the Madison Square Garden, the crowd, you have talked a little bit about it, right? This. This whole sense of it's such a big moment, such a big buildup. You know, the fans themselves seemed exhausted in the second half. Like they just.
- [31:09]
Shad Milton
Yeah, it got quiet. Right.
- [31:11]
Simon Hunter
So I, I am excited to see what. It's gonna be a little different because you've already seen the price drop in half, right. They're not gonna be able to clinch here at home in game four. Maybe I'll let some more common fans back in into the building. Maybe guys won't be selling their tickets, you know, the season ticket holders, like they were, because, you know, I have a buddy was a ticket holder and he is not, you know, a very. He does well, but not anywhere compared to these other people. That one game paid for his whole season. So that game three, you know, he bit the bull because he thought they're going to win that and he was obviously gonna go the closeout game in game four. I think you get a lot of fans like him back in the state for this one. But it's like we keep talking about. It's all about the adjustments. And that's why I love basketball, the chess match that it is. And like, I. I want to get Jason's view here because I have no idea where to go either. I really don't. I honestly want to bet the Knicks, but it feels like I'm walking right into it because I just don't get the line. The line feels very short. So where you at, Jason, with this game here?
- [32:04]
Jason
So I do think that I like the Knicks side of this line. The game that I would point to as an example is game five in okc where when the spurs backs were against the wall, like, we're gonna lose the series if we lose this game in game seven, they really strangled OKC's offense with an incredible defensive effort. But in game five, when it kind of was like, we're guaranteed a game at home no matter what, in game six, OKC just kind of outplayed them from start to finish in terms of that force battle that I always talk about, like basically just physical force. Who's winning at the point of attack, who's winning on the glass, who's winning the 50, 50 balls, who's just playing with more energy. And in that game, I remember the game 5, you could tell the dead giveaway was okc role players kept just driving to the basket like Alex Caruso was driving to the basket like crazy. Lou Dort was driving the basket like crazy. A lot of guys who struggled in game seven. So like, I think there's a version. I think if the spurs win this series, the way it probably goes is they drop game three or game four. Excuse me. And then they win game five at home. And then in game six, when they absolutely have to win in the Garden again, they throw a crazy defensive punch and they pull it out and force a game seven. The adjustments that are on the table that are worth mentioning here. I've been calling for this since my series preview, but one of the things that they did at the tail end of the game was they bench Champagne and they played Dylan Harper alongside the other two guards with Devin Vassell. And what that does is it forces Jalen Brunson to guard a shooter. Someone, excuse me, not a shooter, a more dynamic offensive player because Champagne is a shooter, but Devin Vassell is much more of like a. Can put the ball on the floor, make things happen, shoot on the move, that sort of thing. So down the stretch of the game, they were attacking Brunson pretty relentlessly and getting quite a few good looks. Ironically, the, the, the, the, the bad possessions were the ones they scored. They had that play where we talked about where Steph, Steph Castle hits the prayer and then de' Aaron Fox, the shot that he hit that iced the game. Wemby was trying to go set a screen and Cat was just mauling him out 25ft from the basket and was not even letting him go set the screen. So then it turned into Fox had no choice but late clock just to attack OG Anunoby one on one. And he just hit a really nice shot. But down the stretch they got a lot of really good looks. One for Vassell, multiple for Harper, one for Wemby. That came out of them essentially just attacking Jalen Brunson with a four guard lineup. And so I do think that that's kind of the, the direction that the spurs will go as the series progresses more. The other difference there that's important to mention is Harper is faster than Champagne. He's not bigger, but he's faster. And that makes them more capable of rotating. Like when the Knicks get them into those driving kick sequences, they're just faster. So they can cover more ground and fly around in rotation. So that's the big adjustment on the spurs side. Really the big adjustment on the Knicks side is going to be offensive approach. I think what we're going to see in Game four is just a lot less of Brunson. I think that Mike Brown is going to hammer home that they need to play with more variety and that they need to play through Cat more and that they need to play through OG and Mikhail more. And I think we'll see a lot more variety on that front. It's more just Do I think the spurs can win Game four? Yes, it's more just that they don't have to and it's impossible to manufacture urgency. And that's where I think like if there's a game that the Knicks get at home in a version of this series that the spurs win, it would be Game four anyway. So I think that's the game that I would be on the Knicks side.
- [35:43]
Shad Milton
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Ryan Seacrest
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- [39:02]
Daniel Cormier
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- [39:58]
Jason
Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news.
- [40:00]
Daniel Cormier
What's the news?
- [40:01]
Ryan Seacrest
Huge news.
- [40:02]
Jason
We created our own podcast called hey Jonas.
- [40:06]
Ryan Seacrest
We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it.
- [40:08]
Shad Milton
We. We just contributed to it.
- [40:09]
Jason
First people to do podcasts. Pretty. Yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts, but this one's extra special. So how did we. How did we actually come up with the name hey Jonas? Guys, I honestly don't remember.
- [40:21]
Ryan Seacrest
I think it was on a call about what we should call it and
- [40:24]
Jason
well, we were thinking I'm originally calling
- [40:27]
Shad Milton
it one of the early names of
- [40:30]
Ryan Seacrest
our band before Jonas Brothers.
- [40:33]
Jason
This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes, I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing a
- [40:38]
Shad Milton
bit for the podcast where people could
- [40:40]
Jason
call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my
- [40:43]
Ryan Seacrest
little notepad hey Jonas.
- [40:44]
Jason
And offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that. Guys, listen to hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast, just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
- [40:57]
Shad Milton
So it to me, there is still the urgency devil's advocate on everything we all just said about slightly leaning the Knicks. The spurs may have figured something out and this is the second game in a row where they were able to get very physical with Jalen Brunson defensively, no matter who was guarding him. Right. And whether it was champagne, whether it was Dylan Harper, whether it was Castle, even Dear and Fox, a little bit like those four. Those were the four primary defenders on Jalen Brunson. Three of those guys can be very physical and they were vertical when they were defending and they weren't handsy. They were just moving their feet, getting over picks, staying in front of him. They weren't getting called for fouls last night, just as they weren't called for fouls in game two. Defensively, they seem to have figured something out. Agree with you on Harper, Fox and Castle, that's a different lineup than I think they've only played like 12 minutes together to the playoffs at this point until last night. Maybe they unlock something series price right now. Plus 150 for the spurs open at minus 200. Knicks were plus 170, minus 170 before game one, now minus, I'm sorry, they're plus 170 before game one, now minus 180. Spurs and seven.
- [42:21]
Jason
There's this really weird dynamic where the home team keeps losing game seven. I'm not sure if you guys have noticed that, but I, I, I keep coming back to this. I think the margins are small. Like, this is a very, very close series and the spurs are just like, kind of mistake prone. Like Steph Castle will just shove OG an OBI on a 3 for no reason and send it to the line. Or like, what in the world was Keldon Johnson doing when he shoved Mitchell Robinson into, into Wemby on that three that wiped out three points. We talked about the mistakes at the end of game four. I just think, like, I don't think the spurs can win this series just with their defense. That's the main difference. They won the Thunder series pretty much just with their defense. This Knicks offense brings a certain amount of firepower to the table to where the spurs have to almost like, keep up with them for phases of the game. And that I think makes it so that this margin is just really small. And I just think that winning again, four out of five to end a series after going down 2 0, is just really, really difficult for a young team when the margins are going to be small, the games are going to be close. Every one of our three games has had clutch time at the end where the score has been within five with less than five minutes left. I think that's an advantage to the Knicks over the course of the series. So I, I want to be clear. I very much think the spurs can win this. I think we'd be foolish to count them out. We talked about this last week, but like, this is not the we're excited to go to Cabo group. This is the, this is the we're playing basketball the day after the finals group. Like, this is a group of young kids who like, is not interested in their season ending by any stretch of the imagination. Like the spurs, do not count them out. But the Knicks have real advantages. They have adjustments that they can make. They only need to win two of the next four games and they're gonna have two of those games at msg and they're older, more experienced. I still think this the, the Knicks are the safer bet at this point.
- [44:23]
Shad Milton
Nixon five plus 350, Nixon six plus 210, Nixon seven plus 550 spurs and six plus 700 spurs and seven plus 550. Simon, if you're making a series bet, exact winner and games, what are you betting on right now?
- [44:50]
Simon Hunter
This is just as a fan, I think most professionals I know are still dug in pretty much on the Knicks. I just, I think Wemby's having a moment here. I really do. I think every game you see him gaming, gaining confidence and you know, are we gonna get that WEMBY 40 point game tomorrow night? I don't know. But I just love the way it's spaced out where they have this game Wednesday and then it's another three day break and then if they play Saturday, it's another three day break Tuesday. Like I don't know why. I think these things kind of benefit this, the spurs team. And I look at this game and I just think Wemby, this whole team, this whole spurs team has taken us personality of that they're not again people are saying they're playing dirty. This to me is playoff basketball. It's mental, it's physical. And that's, that's why I want to see like people are bitching about the refs. That was like, that's my dream scenario. That way the refs rep that game. Game where it's like we're letting them play. Like we're letting these grown men play this game, right? No eye gouges, nothing dirty like that. I mean the one Brunson play was dirty, right? Kind of hit the back of his head on the hardwood floor. That stuff does freak me out a little bit. But overall it's like that's the game, right? That's why Most guys aren't 6ft tall in this league, right? Steph Curry at 63 looks small for a reason. It's just these grown men, these big bodies flying around. So I'm, I'm, I'm for. I'm flipping here to the Spurs. I think spurs and seven feels like that's, that's fun value for me to bet right now. So I'm gonna, I'm gonna take a little on that. But I, I'll be upfront. I did lose my sweep bet on the Knicks which it was a fun ride. I'm not gonna lie. I was feeling pretty good and I still have my cat MVP bet. So I, I do think they're gonna make an adjustment where cat will get more touches. Just look at the efficiency numbers when the offense runs through cat. The Knicks are so good in this series. They have those numbers. We're not, we're not breaking news here. Right. They have nerds in the building that are going to give them that data. So we'll see if you know, Mike Brown makes the adjustments and they get cab more touches. Him having zero points that Jason give us that stat about him in the fourth quarter is alarming because to me we've talked about he's been to me their best player. Not just running the offensive room but defensively. What he's done to Wemby. So really interesting. They just have not got him touches in that fourth quarter.
- [46:54]
Shad Milton
MVP ads for cat down to 8
- [46:56]
Jason
to 1 Jason I still like it. I think, I think the, I think people are understanding what's happening with Brunson. I, I think it's become officially a storyline now that it's like, oh, the Knicks are the better team, but is Brunson going to shoot them out of the series? That's become like a legitimate storyline now. So like I, I, I still like the value on cat there 8 to 1. Plus, like let's just put it this way, if Kat has a monster game four to put him up three one, then that's the storyline is Cat has dominated the NBA finals and they're up 31. So I, I still like that eight to one line there for Cat.
- [47:32]
Shad Milton
How quickly the storylines change from everybody is better than Jalen Brunson until it's time to be better than Jalen Brunson to Jalen Brunson is killing the Knicks chances to win an NBA title. It is a fickle, fickle business. Jason, give us the last word here. Nixon 5 Nixon 6 Nixon, I'm gonna go.
- [48:01]
Jason
Nixon 6 I think that more than anything, I don't think home court matters much in this series at all. Either way. I think that if the spurs win game five, it'll be more to do with just them being their backs against the wall in a 3:1 type of series where it's difficult to match force. And then I think just msg just party in game six. We're celebrating the trophy.
- [48:25]
Shad Milton
I do wonder this is not a political statement. I do wonder how much people having to get there four hours early, how much the atmosphere around the Garden changing yesterday because they had to block off the perimeter as large as they did impacting the watch party right next to the Garden, impacting the surrounding area bars sort of atmosphere. I feel like that turned the, the, the vibe from something that was ecstatic, ecstatic and joyful to something that was a little bit more tense. And I wonder if that had an impact and now that they get into Game four, they can go back to the joyful vibe of the Knicks being New York's team. So we'll see. We'll see. Did I say Game five? I mean Game four. Listen, Jason, as always, great stuff. That's our show. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel, download some Spotify, Apple pods wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. We'll be back Thursday. Talking World Cup Love you.
- [49:45]
Simon Hunter
All right, Dick, the reason there's a delay in the game is that some idiot has thrown a bottle of booze on the floor. The floor is covered with glass. We are not supposed to take editorial
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Matt Mitchell
comments here, but that is about the
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Simon Hunter
stupidest thing you can do.
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Jason
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