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[00:00]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
This is an I Heart Podcast Guaranteed
[00:03]
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[01:25]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
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[01:53]
Chad Millman
good life sleep 150 years ago, they were hunting us down to kill us. And now they're hunting down immigrants to deport them.
[02:04]
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This is First America, the true story
[02:07]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
of how the United States came to
[02:09]
Simon Hunter
be and how we got to this present moment. Listen to First America on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
[02:25]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
Hey, it's Nora Jones and my podcast Playing along is back with more of my favorite musicians. Check out my newest episode with Finneas.
[02:33]
Simon Hunter
So I went home and I asked Billie if she wanted to sing it. She immediately made it her own thing. You really know how to make me cry when you give me those ocean eyes and I'm scared.
[02:48]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
So come hang out with us in the studio and listen to Playing along on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
[02:56]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network.
[03:03]
Sponsor Announcer
This is the show that makes the
[03:04]
Chad Millman
squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
[03:17]
Simon Hunter
Chad. As we sit here right now, every team has officially reported the camp. My friend.
[03:23]
Chad Millman
I feel warm and fuzzy.
[03:26]
Simon Hunter
I'm in like a weird spot where I am warm and fuzzy, but I'm in a weird world right now where I'm all in on football. But I'm still watching my crappy TV shows before I head into the season. So I'm on season four of Homeland. Have you ever watched Homeland?
[03:38]
Chad Millman
Oh, dude, I'm jealous that you're getting to watch it. I, I always, I like, I feel so happy for people who like Breaking Bad, Sopranos, Homeland, the Wire. Like these shows that are so good and if you've never watched them before getting a chance to watch it, it's amazing.
[03:56]
Simon Hunter
This is my 10th time through, I'm not gonna lie.
[03:57]
Chad Millman
Okay.
[03:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, every season, off season, I do the same thing. I watch shows, but I stopped Homeland. I don't forget what happened basically once. I don't. If you remember, season one was so good. It just every season after for like a little bit of a letdown. But I am super paranoid. State was gonna get at like when I'm leaving my place now I'm like, is this guy tailing me? Whatever, whatever happens for me. Watching too much CIA stuff. And now I'm betting large amounts of money at sportsbooks again. I'm just always being like, is someone tracking me right now? Is this guy following me in the sports book? So it's for my mental health. I need to stop watching Homeland now that I'm back to handling large amounts of cash.
[04:29]
Chad Millman
I just watched on Saturday. My wife was out of town, my kid was doing his own thing, and I basically rewatched the entire season two of the Bear, which I love. And I think season two, episode six, it's an episode called Forks, features Richie, one of the main characters. Anyone who watches the Bear, like, it's such a Chicago show. Like it's got these little Chicago Easter eggs, which makes me love it even more.
[05:03]
Simon Hunter
And I find him, his personalities work for Chicago. Is that really what you think a lot of Chicago people are like, locally,
[05:09]
Chad Millman
like I think local? Yeah, totally. Oh yeah. I, those personalities are, are accurate for I think any like working class, close knit, like family, community, you know, obviously everything's heightened for television, but the Chicago of it all. Like, it's not even the characters so much. They don't have crazy Chicago accents, but the communities they talk about, the areas that they shoot in, the way they make the city look. There's Easter eggs in the show through season one and season two. More in season one than season two that it's one of those things if you know Chicago, you know, like there's a picture of Simeon Rice when he played at Illinois on the Wall of the Beef, right? And like, you'd only know that Simeon Rice matters to people in Chicago because he was a great Chicago high school football player who went to become a top five overall pick for the local Big Ten team at the time, Illinois. You discount Northwestern. Like, you're only going to get that if you know Chicago history. So to me, those things are interesting. Love it.
[06:25]
Simon Hunter
Almost as good as your Sid Luckman statue.
[06:29]
Chad Millman
You know what we're going to do today? We're going to talk about one of our favorite divisions in football, where there's plenty of statues to go around. It's our annual eight part Division by Division NFL Betting Preview. Starting with it started out as our least favorite division of football. I think it's turned into our favorite division of football. We're talking about the NFC South. Will the Falcons make a run with new coach Kevin Stefanski and TUA under center? Can the Bucks rebound with a healthier Baker Mayfield, even though Vita Vella wants out? Were the Saints a fluke with Tyler Schuck at the end of last year? Did they put themselves in a position to not be able to draft from a legendary potential quarterback draft class because it'll be too good? Most importantly, Simon, are we still Carolina Panthers Podcast, those are the questions we have today. Are you ready?
[07:33]
Simon Hunter
Let's get to it.
[07:35]
Chad Millman
Betting markets show a very even division. One of the most even divisions, top to bottom. Tampa Bay 8 1/2 win totals minus 135 under. New Orleans 7 1/2 wins minus 120 over. Not surprising with the enthusiasm for the Saints. Atlanta 7 1/2 135 under. Carolina 7 1/2 135 under. That number's gone up though, because didn't I like Carolina at six and a half when they first came out? You did okay. All right, so let's talk about Carolina. Like they're always our favorite team to bet. We go all in on the Panthers no matter what the year, no matter what the circumstances, we feel like we got a beat on this team. The Panthers up by four in the wild card versus the Rams. Under 40 seconds left before a beautiful pass from MVP Matthew Stafford ended the Carolina season. They are plus 350 to win their division. They are 40 to 1 to win the conference, 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Did you see how charming Bryce Young was in his intro in his opening press conference the other day?
[08:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, he's a great man. We all know that. That's how he got first overall picked. Chad. He charmed him in their meeting room.
[09:04]
Chad Millman
He was so freaking charming. He's like, any big news, any big, big milestones? One guy said he got married. One guy's like, I'm an empty nester. And Bryce Young was like, congratulations. Is that good? The guy's back. The guy is freaking ready. Dave Canales, Bryce Young, they are champions.
[09:28]
Simon Hunter
It also just shows how crazy football can be, right? The fact that they were, like you said, four points, winning by four points over the Rams, like, they just. We've seen it, right? When their offense is clicking, it is pretty impressive. They just, they were so inconsistent last year. We've never seen anything like it, right? Me and Chad would bet on them one week, we fed them the next. It worked like it was the most bizarre pattern. It worked every week. It was bizarre. So, yeah, this, this Panthers team, you know, like Chad said, the number has moved, right? So that was a good read by you. It's up to seven and a half now, so the pros were on it. I'm just like, I. I'm going to keep holding my. My point of view of this is it's going to be a tough schedule. That first place schedule is really tough. And the Bucks, who, you know, three years straight they had won this division, they still, even after a whole collapse, they still almost won the division at 8 and 9. So it wasn't like the Panthers are some type of juggernaut, right? They were a team that limped in and we've seen it time and time again in playoff history. Those home dogs in the wild card round that no one believes in, they. They play tough. So it's like I'm trying not to overreact too much of that playoff game and what happened last year, the Panthers and I think me, you, I think we stay mentality where we see a ton of talent here, but it feels like they were two years early, honestly, last year. Like it just to win your division eight, nine and all those things that break their way divisionally, where the Bucs kind of fell apart, Atlanta fell apart, and the Saints Won a bunch of games for them against those teams in their division to help them when this division the Panthers it just like they were so lucky. I. I just have to fade them this year. So the fact that then the under now is minus 135 at the, at the seven and a half. Not a ton of value there, Chad. I mean I feel like we can be patient there if we want to bet that in season. I just, I wouldn't be betting a number that juiced up where I think we both have the same mentality where it's like the Panthers getting eight wins again wouldn't be that shocked. Like they have that type of talent. Not just offensively. They've added to the defense like they're going to be a pretty good team but I think they're going to have eight or nine wins like that just to me to bet on that. Just feels there's no value there with the way their schedule is broken.
[11:34]
Chad Millman
Yeah and they also their defense, they needed help on the edge last year. They could not get a pass rush going. So that what they did, they went out and signed Jalen Phillips who when he can play can really be outstanding. The challenge has been injuries for him. So are you going to be getting a guy who's on the upswing, who showed what he was, who became a huge, a big, big piece of trade bait in the middle of last year or you're going to get a guy who could fall back into injury prone situations and they spent a lot of money on the guy because there were, there were competitors for Jaylen Phillips. So that's one big one. They might have improved at linebacker adding Devin Lloyd, but it's hard to say exactly. Like that's kind of where they spent their money in free agency on those two guys. We love Tettero McMillan, great rookie of the year, lived up to it, had some amazing catches. Totally believe the hype. They got rid of Rico Dowdle because they felt like they had. They had opportunities with Chuba Hubbard now to be the running back. So like I like where the Panthers are offensively, but I do think they won that division because the Bucks lost it. That's what I mean.
[12:55]
Simon Hunter
Just the, the value wasn't there. Like last year they were left for dead. Even we had left them for dead for the most part. So that was the thing. It's just there was no believers where this year they have believers. They really do. Like a lot of people are like okay this is a team that is slept on but obviously there is one team in this division that everyone's talking about, I think me and Chad are on the same page. So we should, we should keep it moving.
[13:21]
Chad Millman
I don't think this is the team. The Atlanta Falcons 8 and 9, humiliating three way division tie. Got rid of Raheem Morris. Got rid of GM Terry Font. No combined 0 playoffs for either plus 350 to win the division. 40 to 1 to win the conference. 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. So now they're getting Kevin Stefanski. He's been a two time NFL coach of the year. We like Stefanski, like what he has been able to do with the Browns over the years as they've continued to screw up. Their quarterback situation has been miraculous. Which is why one year he got coach of the year in addition to one of the years with Baker Mayfield. Now they got to, they got to it basically backfill until Michael Penix can come back from. I think it's his third ACL tier tear in his career. A couple of them playing for the Indiana Hoosiers. Kirk Cousins is gone. They traded away their first round pick in 25 to get a pass rusher. They didn't really add much. They spent money on Johan Doson at wide receiver to replace Darnell Mooney. They got rid of Alier. So I'll have a take here. I think Kevin Stefanski with TUA could be a really good combination if TUA can stay healthy. Yeah.
[14:56]
Simon Hunter
What's better than having one left handed quarterback? Chad? Having two. So I, I look at this team where it's like I've given my opinion on it. I would, if I am a scout in the NFL, I am old school. I would never ever waste time scouting a left handed quarterback. I just. We have the day and the numbers, they just do not work out in this league. Whatever it is, it's. It's different come out of their hands. Guys don't react to it. You say maybe it's just a talent level. Whatever your excuses, I, I just don't like left handed quarterbacks. And I immediately saw this team, I was like, this is, this is so perfectly on brand for them. Having two left handed quarterbacks in Atlanta. And it's a team that I'm giving no love to, not even paying attention to would make total sense for them to win this division. That's usually how the south works. But they just feel like a team that people are going to get blinded by the fantasy football names. Right? Bijan, Robinson, London. Tons of talent, right. You get, you get a quarterback like you know Caleb Williams or whoever in there, this would be a, you know, a team that we would all be talking about shoeing to win this division. Right. That's just so much talent offensively. You would think if they had the right piece in there, they'd be able to move it. So I don't think your assessment's wrong to think Tool could come in there and put it together.
[16:03]
Advertisement Voice / Narrator
Right.
[16:03]
Simon Hunter
We've seen him do it before. My question is he's still mentally right. This is a guy that's taken insane hits to the head, and we've seen those add up. He just doesn't look mentally sharp, let alone his interviews.
[16:14]
Chad Millman
Sure.
[16:15]
Simon Hunter
He's an idiot when he talks. That's not a big deal to me. Right. It's. It's okay. Like, if you're football smart, I could care less how you're publicly perceived. I don't know if the football smarts are there anymore, Chad. That's my fear with him. It's just he's regressed in so many ways. Football and, you know, his footwork has regressed, in my opinion. There's just a lot of stuff with him that I have major questions about. That's why he's there with. No. I mean, they paid him basically nothing. So, Tua, this is it. So I don't hate the play by Chad where it's like, if you're viewing this as a new head coach, there's always gonna be this one random team that's gonna get a bump for the new head coach. The Fanski fits that mold. They're really smart. Offensive guy, tons of talent on this team. Can he get the most out of Tua? Can he get the most out of Penix? It's impossible to say. It's like two guys that just. They've disappointed me so much, Chad. I just don't want to be putting money behind them right now.
[17:02]
Chad Millman
What have you seen from tua? You say footwork, and footwork is so important in the kind of offense he ran with Miami, and it's also going to be important in the offense he runs with Stefanski, which is largely a timing offense. What have you seen footwork wise, that troubles you?
[17:22]
Simon Hunter
He's got the jitters. He's. He's. Honestly, he's got. Whatever it is. He's not staying, like, solid on his base. He's on. Either on his toes too much or he's not stepping into his throws. He's just. I feel like he's just taking too many hits and he's. That's in the back of his mind, just the way his footwork is now gotten worse where he's not trusting the pocket, he's not trusting himself. You say, well, he's in Atlanta now, maybe that will change. I don't know if it's that easy to fix a football. Guys, it's, it's really all mental in this league. Like guys do get the yips for taking so many hits. We've seen that time and time again. So I'm just worried that we've already seen the best of TUA and that that's my fear with it. But I do like what you've said though with the idea of like this is the exact time this Atlanta team should work out. Like we've all kind of left them for dead here. And I know some professionals have taken a position on just because if TUA does get it right in this division with those weapons, this could easily be a 10 win team, 9 win team. So I would say there's more support that people realize. This Atlanta team, it's not all love for another team. We're about to talk about, well, look,
[18:20]
Chad Millman
Atlanta minus seven and a half. It's minus 135 to the under. So it's plus money to get the over, which is an interesting opportunity also because their defense, they did, they were just so much better as a pass rush last year. Now how much of that was Raheem Morris and him being a defensive specialist and how much did the offense suffer because of that? So was there all of a sudden just a complete flip and where the emphasis is and they're a much better offensive team but their defense suffers? We don't know that yet. But I'm a buyer on Stefanski. I, I just, I think the guy's been in terrible positions and what he did in Cleveland should not be discounted. That team could be competitive like they were, they were competitive last year. We bet on them with Dylan Gabriel because of that defense and because of Stefanski. So it's interesting to me. It's very interesting. Let's do a quick word from Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by
[19:19]
Sponsor Announcer
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[19:22]
Chad Millman
Some folks call this the slow period until football season.
[19:25]
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[19:54]
Chad Millman
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[21:09]
Simon Hunter
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[21:25]
Chad Millman
All right, so you've been hinting that there is a team that is sort of the one we're eyeing. I'll be honest, I don't know which one we're talking about. To me, it's the Bucks or the Saints for two vastly different reasons. I feel like it's the Bucks. Right?
[21:41]
Simon Hunter
It's not. I'm sorry.
[21:43]
Chad Millman
Okay, then let's talk about the Saints last. Let's talk about the Bucks first, because to me, there is a huge wild card here with the Bucks. They kept top bowls. Let me run through some of their numbers here before we get into that. They kept Todd Bowls. They're plus 175 to win the division, 22 to 1 to win the conference, 50 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Clearly the favorite from the NFC South, Todd Bowles gets gets another chance. Baker Mayfield gets his fourth year, so his longest run other than Cleveland. They drafted Ruben Bain, who I was a huge Fan of feels like they walked into a Warren SAP situation because someone was trying to plant ugly stories about Reuben Bain right before the draft. Added linebacker Alexand alone. Great. Added Kenneth Gainwell. Steelers offensive MVVP last year. 73 receptions for Kenneth Gainwell. Don't forget their offense started to struggle last year when Bucky Irving got injured. That was a huge issue for them. Vita Vea wants out. Chances are they'll just give more money and he'll stay. The question is, can Baker bake? Will he be injured? How long can he last? How much can we count on him?
[23:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and they gotta get Diabeta Va done. I. I can't believe that they got contract disputes with him and Baker. That's just not the way you want to be heading to this. No, my view is, it's just. I love this team, obviously. I just don't think the value there is betting wise. And yeah, if you want to take the over eight and a half, you could do that if you want. It's probably better just to bet them to win the division. Right? At a. At a bigger plus number. Because if they're going to get the 10 wins, that usually wins this division. I mean, we know the deal, the NFC south, it's just, it's an ugly mud fight. And you know, last year, that total collapse they had, that's got to be in the back of their minds, right? That's something that can motivate this Bucs team head in this season. I don't know about a lot of other people, but they have. I have them great as my fifth best offensive line. So judges said if they got Gainwell, you got Bucky back. They're giving time to Baker. I mean, the Mecca Buka takes that next step with Godwin. That's a really, really good offense. So I love. They're trying to address the defense that was consistently at Achilles heel for them last year. They had a couple of games where, you know, offensively they're putting up a ton of numbers. They just could not get stops. And then you know what happens. Baker is going to turn the ball over. And you have Baker chasing from behind. He will turn the ball over. That's just who he is. He's got a ton of Brett Favre in him. Hopefully only the good things. But I can't get over this, this team, the Bucs, where it's like we talk all the time about letting these coordinators leave, and I just feel like they're paying for their sins. I'm not signing Lincoln, like keeping around a head Coach, where, you know, we. We like Todd Bowles. He feels like a dinosaur to me in so many ways. His views. I mean, we've had a couple of times we bet the Bucks, and he's punting on fourth downs, where it's like, dude, all the Atlantic. All the Atlantic numbers are telling you here. You have to go for it. And you have an offense in Baker. You need to trust this quarterback. This isn't the 25th quarterback in this league. This is a guy that's in the top 15, top 10.
[25:05]
Chad Millman
You.
[25:05]
Simon Hunter
You need to trust him in those moments, and that's hurt Todd Bowles, in my opinion, a lot of ways. So. Love the Bucks. I think we'll be able to get better value during the season. I'll take a position there. So I have no bets, honestly, if I'm on their win totals or their division odds. I just. I steered clear so far on this Bucks team, but the more numbers I dive into, it's like, my God, this offense could be an absolute juggernaut.
[25:27]
Chad Millman
It's just about Baker, right? Like, and we talked about this with. With Rich Rebar. They're going to have Zach Robinson, who's going to be the offensive coordinator now. And look, who knows? Like, so many of these guys end up feeling like, you know, Rams retreads. Like, you're just grabbing a guy who was on the Rams staff and hoping that he's great. It's worked out for them. You're right about Liam Cohen. They had him in the building. They could have kept him. And then all of a sudden, they lost them. But it's Baker. It's Baker or bust. That's it. That's all you can count on. And, dude, we had some heartbreakers with Baker last year. Like, he truly. Some games, he. He won us some money, but he also hurt our feelings.
[26:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, people gloss over Baker, went to Seattle, put up, what was it, 35 points against that Seattle defense and one one in Seattle. Like, that first month and month and a half, it was insane how good Baker was in that team. And just like we said, Chad, those injuries catch up to him. So that's just. That's my hesitation right now. It's like, am I really about to invest this guy in the next seven months that he can't help himself to take these bad hits? So this year, like I said before, when you have the old line, the talent around it, it's kind of hard to keep making excuses for these type of players. It's on you. You're the one taking these bad Hits and trying to do too much. And that's, that's how I'm feeling a little bit here with Baker, Simon, the
[26:57]
Chad Millman
New Orleans Saints, their win total is seven and a half, minus 120 to the over. The Saints are taking money on the over at seven and a half, all because Tyler Schuck made a glorious run for Rookie of the Year. What did you bet on that last year for Rookie of the Year? You could have won $100,000, something like that.
[27:20]
Simon Hunter
200 to 1.
[27:22]
Chad Millman
200 to 1. You could have won a couple hundred grand on Tyler Stock winning Rookie of the Year. You gave it out on the show. I stupidly did not listen and then had to suffer every single week at the end of the year when he went four of his last five to get this team to six and 11 on the year. And that's why everyone's all in on them right now. The question is, is that sort of false hope? Are we identifying something that is on the upswing? Did they play themselves out of position to draft someone?
[27:57]
Advertisement Voice / Narrator
Great.
[27:59]
Chad Millman
Get Arch Manning plus two. Hold on, let me put on my glasses. I'm not able to read this one. Plus 260 to win the division, 40 to 1 to win the conference, 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Kellen Moore in the second season, look, same numbers as the Panthers and same numbers as the Falcons. So what are we missing here?
[28:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, this is my biggest bet by far in this division is on the plus 270, plus 260, whatever you can find on this team to win this division. And I look at the Saints and it's just like, okay, my question was, are they going to go all in on shock right after what they saw last year? And they have, they've really addressed the offensive line. Could be another offensive line in the top five. Honestly, like them and the Bucks offensive line grade wise aren't that different in my, in my grading scheme. And they brought Kamara back even though they have Travis etn. So that to me is another bonus. It's like, okay, you got your one veteran guy who's not gonna be complaining, making toxic in the locker room. He's gonna be all in. And you bring on the new guy who you just paid, who's actually really talented. I think ETN's a really good back, especially behind that offensive line where the Jags didn't have the best offensive line. He still was able to put in pretty impressive numbers. And Kellen Moore, I can't give enough credit to this guy, right what he did for Jalen Hurts getting him to that super bowl and winning the Super Bowl. Now what he's done for Shuck in his career, it's been really impressive. So it just feels like it's all there. It really does. Where it's like, am I buying fool's gold with Shuck? I could be like, we could be walking right into it. But he has a last place schedule. As great as that run was for them, they still came in fourth in this division.
[29:35]
Chad Millman
Division.
[29:36]
Simon Hunter
So they have the easiest schedule as anyone else in this division. And I think they have almost all the same amount of talent as that Bucs team does. Like, people are gonna be shocked. Defensively, this Saints team's actually pretty good. Like they've added pieces as well to this defense that I think people remember last year early in the season, their defenses were keeping a lot of games right. It was Rattler that kept turning the ball over. That's what kept hurting them. They kept losing games that way. So I, I'm really excited for the Saints team to see if they can be that team that takes that next step. But definitely the professional, better community. It's too much love. That's my fear chat. Like every pro I. With every guy I'm talking to, we all just absolutely love this Saints team. That really is the conversation. We're just a lot of Saints love and a lot of Atlanta teams. Like a lot of people are like, Atlanta is a good sleeper. The Saints are a good sleeper in this division. That's usually when the Bucks do kind of win it, right? When everyone's kind of not talking about them at all. We've seen that before. That that Bucks team that, you know, it's. It's usually their division to win and we are overlooking them a little bit. I just can't get over the talent level of this stance team. Like if Shuck really is what he proved to be, which was big time throws like Chad, we bet on him. We saw in those games big. Yeah. Anytime we need him, save us. He really didn't. Olave is that type outside receiver, talent wise that can do that. And in the draft they draft another receiver for him. Like they're all in on Shuck here. So yeah, people can tell I'm really excited for this team and betting this number and the fact that still above plus 250, I think is great value here. It's just. It's such a mismatch, crappy division. I don't think the books can go that low. Like what are they gonna keep Dropping Atlanta, they're gonna keep dropping Carolina. Are they really gonna drop the books anymore? Like, I feel like they're at the max level. They can price because it was plus 350. So the pros have been hitting this one pretty hard. And I. I do think by the time we get the kickoff chat, I think hard rock, especially drop below +250. I just think more and more public betters are going to come in on the Saints teams get closer to the
[31:25]
Chad Millman
season, Shock will chuck, and it don't give a fuck. What do you think of that?
[31:34]
Simon Hunter
Oh, God.
[31:36]
Chad Millman
Listen, we're a literary podcast, but how many plays did he make last year? Look, that last game against the Panthers, right? Like, he came down to a couple of throws from winning offensive rookie of the year. He really did. Like, I think there's a couple of times where the Panthers went for it on fourth down. They ended up scoring, and it forced Shock to have to put the Saints in a really difficult position. And he had to, you know, he had to win the game, and he didn't. But he was. He was fearless. He played like an old man. He played like a guy who's 26 years old.
[32:17]
Simon Hunter
So I think you nailed. In that moment, though, he finally looked like a rookie after, like five weeks of always showing up in that moment, he finally looked like where he made a couple stupid mistakes. It's like, okay, this kid is human. Because at one point, like you said, he was about to win rookie of the year, where he was, like I said, 201. Six weeks before that, he was nowhere to be found, left for dead. It was the total freak anomaly. That's. That's. I think Chad's summarizing. My fear here, people, is where it's like, was that. Am I buying fool's gold here? Was that real what we saw? Or was that just a streaky quarterback that none of these defensive coordinators had film on and Kellen Moore took advantage of that? Or did we just watch the birth of, you know, the next 10, 15 year starter for the Saints? The Saints, organizationally, they're all in as if he is. So that's why I'm so excited about bed in this team where it's like the organization is supporting him. They're putting all the resources behind them. I got to put my money behind them because I just. I believe in with the situation.
[33:11]
Chad Millman
He was a miracle. I remember when you talked about it, I think it was a Sunday night and they hadn't even won the game, and he was at 201. In every single week after that. And because I didn't bet it, you made a point of bringing it up and pointing out that I didn't bet it. And you know what? Because I love you so much, because you are my bff, I never rooted against it. I didn't have any schadenfreude about it. I only wanted there to be success. What's good for you is good for the show. It's good for me. It's good for Matt Mitchell. I was all in. I was a little bit crushed when he threw those picks at the end of the Panthers game. But all of this feels like, oh, my God, we found our starter. And then, you know, he turns back into a pumpkin after week two.
[34:03]
Simon Hunter
He could. But this is what you want if you're a fan of the organization, right? Just like the way the Bears treated Caleb. Like they went all in on Caleb and basically got him the coach and used the draft as well to try to make Caleb better. Right. The Saints are doing the same thing here. Everything they've done in free agency, everything they've done in the draft, it's like, oh, my God, they think they have a guy. They're all in supporting this guy. So that, to me, is what's been so impressive. You see some teams, you know, be half in, half out, right? Like, they could be. Exactly. We're talking about where it's like, are we really sure about this guy? Really sure about going all in on this? And I love that they are. And I told you my viewpoint of it. The Saints can't lose here if Shuck is a total bus and a flop. Great, great draft class coming out this year, and they're not invested that much in what was your second or third round pick like that much in the first place. So really, really nice spot to be as a Saints organizationally.
[34:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I'm excited for Kellen Moore. I was really glad that they actually turned it around last year and people got to see that he's a really good coach. And I. Because. Because I thought he kept his team in games last year with the game plan, knowing the limitations of Spencer Rattler. And then it really started to open up when Tyler Shock was playing from behind in a lot of these games. So I'd love. I love it for him. You know, I love an underdog story. All right, so we'll invest in the New Orleans Saints at +260.
[35:23]
Simon Hunter
You have a team in the Division I really, that you love. Is Atlanta your team or just.
[35:27]
Chad Millman
You know, it's funny it's like you're in my head. I was just. I was just thinking to myself, like, they're a fun long shot, but why am I not more aggressive on the Bucks? Like the way we lay. I like the way we laid it out. If Baker's got a Mecca, if Baker's got Godwin, if Baker's got Gainwell, if he's got Bucky Irving, he's got a really good offensive line. Why don't I love this team? Like, why can't I commit full force to this team? Atlanta is a little bit of a. You got a squint to believe it. And Carolina is emotional. Right. So I don't know why I can't commit to the Bucs.
[36:15]
Simon Hunter
It is interesting. The books have them both at +350. Atlanta and Carolina +350 to win the division. It just.
[36:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
[36:22]
Simon Hunter
I mean, obviously I think we'll go through all the different divisions. This is probably the lowest odds of all four teams combined.
[36:26]
Chad Millman
Sure.
[36:27]
Simon Hunter
Divisionally. So even the sports books are like, don't want to give too much value out there because we have no idea either. So it is crazy to think the Saints were at +350 and they're the only one that's been bet down well and Atlanta have both gone up. So you can definitely see the professional monies coming early here.
[36:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I don't know if I believe enough in tua. It's like in theory, I like it all, but I don't know if I believe it. Kyle Pitt seemed to be great for three games when it was time to get a new contract. Bijan is great when it doesn't matter. Those are my issues, I think with Atlanta, if I look at it, sort of clear headed without being irrationally optimistic, I think the Bucks, I think in the end it's the Bucks. The Bucks just have the best team and the best quarterback.
[37:19]
Simon Hunter
All right, I'll see you in January.
[37:21]
Chad Millman
All right. All right. Simon Hunter. This has been sharp or Square, part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
[37:36]
Sponsor Announcer
Like this video.
[37:37]
Chad Millman
Subscribe to the channel, Download some Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want.
[37:44]
Sponsor Announcer
Feedback is a gift.
[37:45]
Chad Millman
Until next time. Love you.
[37:50]
Simon Hunter
It may feel. Oh, beautiful, huh? A good way to wind up in concussion protocol even though you don't get into the game.
[37:59]
Chad Millman
Oh, boy.
[38:00]
Simon Hunter
Take one for the team.
[38:01]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
I guess. I don't know. This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human.

Summary6 min read

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp Or Square - NFC SOUTH BETTING PREVIEW

Air date: July 31, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)

Episode Overview

This episode kicks off the annual division-by-division NFL betting preview—with a deep dive into the NFC South. Chad and Simon break down team outlooks, win totals, betting markets, and roster changes for the Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers. The show balances sharp betting analysis, fantasy insights, and locker room banter, aiming to help listeners make informed bets (or avoid common traps) for the upcoming season.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. NFC South Landscape & Win Totals

[07:35 - 08:57]

The division is highlighted as one of the NFL's most evenly matched ("muddiest")—with win totals for all four teams clustered closely together.
- Tampa Bay: 8.5 wins (under -135)
- New Orleans: 7.5 wins (over -120)
- Atlanta: 7.5 wins (under -135)
- Carolina: 7.5 wins (under -135; early interest saw Panthers at 6.5 wins)

2. Carolina Panthers: Hype, Caution, & Roster Moves

[08:57 - 12:55]

Fan Favorites but Overvalued?: Chad and Simon admit their emotional attachment but urge caution, frustrated that the betting market has caught up to their previous “edge” on Carolina.
Bryce Young’s upside & charm: Chad raves about Bryce’s character, referencing his press conference charisma.

“He was so freaking charming...the guy is freaking ready.” – Chad Millman [09:03]
Last Year’s Fortunate Playoff Run: The hosts note that Carolina’s division title was as much about competitors’ failures as Panthers’ success.
Key Roster Moves: Simon notes the defensive upgrades (Jalen Phillips, Devin Lloyd), the hype around Tettero McMillan (ROTY), and a backfield now focused on Chuba Hubbard.
Betting Stance: The hosts feel the market is too juiced for the under—see little value unless circumstances change in-season.

3. Atlanta Falcons: New Coach, New QBs, Unanswered Questions

[13:20 - 18:20]

Overhaul & Stefanski’s Arrival: New coach Kevin Stefanski and QB TUA (as a bridge until Michael Penix returns)—the core story. Simon praises Stefanski’s offensive pedigree but is deeply skeptical about left-handed QBs.

"If I am a scout...I would never ever waste time scouting a left handed quarterback." — Simon Hunter [14:55]
TUA’s Footwork & Mental State: Simon expresses major concern:

“He’s got the jitters...taking too many hits...not trusting the pocket, not trusting himself.” — Simon Hunter [17:21]
Betting Market: Falcons’ 7.5 win total is plus money to the over, positioning them as a value “sleeper.” Atlanta’s excellent pass rush is a potential bright spot, but the coaches worry new offensive focus could compromise defense.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Offensive Juggernaut—or Heartbreak?

[21:42 - 26:17]

Todd Bowles & Baker Mayfield: The Bucs remain division favorites, but betting enthusiasm is tempered by concerns about Bowles’ outdated, conservative coaching and Baker’s penchant for turnovers/injuries.

“He feels like a dinosaur...punting on fourth downs where, dude, all the analytics are telling you, you have to go for it.” — Simon Hunter [24:00]
Roster Moves: Addition of Reuben Bain (DT), Alexander Anzalone (LB), and Kenneth Gainwell (RB); offensive line graded as top 5 in the league by Simon.
Bottom Line: “Baker or bust.” — Chad Millman [25:26], with Simon noting the offense could be "an absolute juggernaut" if Baker stays healthy.

5. New Orleans Saints: The Consensus Sharp Play

[26:56 - 34:51]

Tyler Shuck Mania: Last year’s 200-1 ROTY candidate (called out on the pod!) now leads a Saints team with heavy professional betting backing.

“My biggest bet by far in this division is on the +270, +260...on this team to win this division.” — Simon Hunter [28:25]
OL Revamp & Backfield Depth: Major upgrades, with the Saints’ OL graded nearly as high as the Bucs. ETN joins Kamara in the backfield.
Kellen Moore Factor: Major credit to Moore for his impact on Jalen Hurts (Philly) and now Shuck (NO).
Defense Underrated: Remembered as strong early last year—undoing came from Spencer Rattler turnovers.
Betting Sentiment: Heavily favored among professional bettors; the main caveat is whether they’re “buying fool’s gold” in Shuck’s hot streak. Yet, Simon points out the Saints are “all in” organizationally and face a last-place schedule.

“We saw in those games. Anytime we needed him, save us, he really did.” — Simon Hunter [31:24]
Host Banter:

"Shock will chuck, and it don’t give a fuck." — Chad Millman [31:24]
Simon laments: “Was that just a streaky QB with no film, or did we just watch the birth of a 10-15 year starter?” [32:16]
Final Take: Saints at +250 or better are Simon’s pick for the division title.

6. General Takeaways & Final Instincts

[35:22 - 37:19]

Bucs vs. Saints: Chad admits his heart can’t fully commit to the Bucs despite the roster talent—Atlanta is a fun “long shot” but “you got to squint to believe it.”
Division Parity Reflected in Odds: All four teams price close together (+350 for Atlanta/Carolina, +260 for Saints).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On TUA’s Future:

“He’s an idiot when he talks. That’s not a big deal to me...if you’re football smart, I could care less how you’re publicly perceived. I don’t know if the football smarts are there anymore.”
— Simon Hunter [16:14]
On Saints’ Professional Backing:

“Too much love. That’s my fear, Chad...every pro I talk to, we all just absolutely love this Saints team.”
— Simon Hunter [29:35]
On NFC South Betting Landscape:

“It’s just an ugly mud fight...usually their division to win, and we are overlooking [the Bucs] a little bit.”
— Simon Hunter [29:58]
On Saints’ All-In Approach:

“Everything they've done in free agency, everything in the draft...they think they have a guy. They're all in supporting this guy.”
— Simon Hunter [34:03]

Key Timestamps

| Segment & Topic | Timestamp | | -------------------------------- | ------------- | | Banter/TV recommendations | 03:25–06:25 | | Setting up NFC South Preview | 06:29–07:35 | | Quick win totals & odds | 07:35–08:57 | | Panthers breakdown | 08:57–12:55 | | Falcons breakdown | 13:20–18:20 | | Bucs breakdown | 21:42–26:17 | | Saints breakdown (deep dive) | 26:56–34:51 | | Summary & conclusion | 35:22–37:44 |

Betting Recommendations Round-Up

Sharpest Play:
Saints to win NFC South (+260 or higher) — Strongest pro-side bet, with supporting upgrades across roster/coaching and an easier schedule.
Bucs:
Intriguing as a live/in-season bet given offense potential; doubt around Bowles and “Baker or bust” factor.
Falcons:
Considered a “sleeper” but concerns around TUA and coaching regime shift make them more speculative.
Panthers:
Fun, talented, but no longer undervalued; no current edge at posted numbers.

Tone & Style

Relatable, self-aware gambling talk: The hosts swap war stories, admit past mistakes, poke fun at themselves, and engage in spirited but analytical debate.
Emphasis on sharp-vs-square thinking: Consideration of where betting value lies, when to be patient, and how market movement affects edge.

Listen If:

You want nuanced, personality-infused betting previews.
You’re curious about current sharp sentiment in NFL futures.
You love hearing sports and TV banter alongside actionable NFL talk.

Final Word

This episode offers both entertainment and edge—especially for sports bettors seeking informed angles on one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions. For this crew (and most professional sharps), it’s Saints or nothing—just don’t be surprised if the Bucs break some hearts (again) in the process.

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Transcript88 lines

[00:00]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
This is an I Heart Podcast Guaranteed
[00:03]
Advertisement Voice / Narrator
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[01:25]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
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[01:53]
Chad Millman
good life sleep 150 years ago, they were hunting us down to kill us. And now they're hunting down immigrants to deport them.
[02:04]
Advertisement Voice / Narrator
This is First America, the true story
[02:07]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
of how the United States came to
[02:09]
Simon Hunter
be and how we got to this present moment. Listen to First America on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
[02:25]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
Hey, it's Nora Jones and my podcast Playing along is back with more of my favorite musicians. Check out my newest episode with Finneas.
[02:33]
Simon Hunter
So I went home and I asked Billie if she wanted to sing it. She immediately made it her own thing. You really know how to make me cry when you give me those ocean eyes and I'm scared.
[02:48]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
So come hang out with us in the studio and listen to Playing along on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
[02:56]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network.
[03:03]
Sponsor Announcer
This is the show that makes the
[03:04]
Chad Millman
squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
[03:17]
Simon Hunter
Chad. As we sit here right now, every team has officially reported the camp. My friend.
[03:23]
Chad Millman
I feel warm and fuzzy.
[03:26]
Simon Hunter
I'm in like a weird spot where I am warm and fuzzy, but I'm in a weird world right now where I'm all in on football. But I'm still watching my crappy TV shows before I head into the season. So I'm on season four of Homeland. Have you ever watched Homeland?
[03:38]
Chad Millman
Oh, dude, I'm jealous that you're getting to watch it. I, I always, I like, I feel so happy for people who like Breaking Bad, Sopranos, Homeland, the Wire. Like these shows that are so good and if you've never watched them before getting a chance to watch it, it's amazing.
[03:56]
Simon Hunter
This is my 10th time through, I'm not gonna lie.
[03:57]
Chad Millman
Okay.
[03:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, every season, off season, I do the same thing. I watch shows, but I stopped Homeland. I don't forget what happened basically once. I don't. If you remember, season one was so good. It just every season after for like a little bit of a letdown. But I am super paranoid. State was gonna get at like when I'm leaving my place now I'm like, is this guy tailing me? Whatever, whatever happens for me. Watching too much CIA stuff. And now I'm betting large amounts of money at sportsbooks again. I'm just always being like, is someone tracking me right now? Is this guy following me in the sports book? So it's for my mental health. I need to stop watching Homeland now that I'm back to handling large amounts of cash.
[04:29]
Chad Millman
I just watched on Saturday. My wife was out of town, my kid was doing his own thing, and I basically rewatched the entire season two of the Bear, which I love. And I think season two, episode six, it's an episode called Forks, features Richie, one of the main characters. Anyone who watches the Bear, like, it's such a Chicago show. Like it's got these little Chicago Easter eggs, which makes me love it even more.
[05:03]
Simon Hunter
And I find him, his personalities work for Chicago. Is that really what you think a lot of Chicago people are like, locally,
[05:09]
Chad Millman
like I think local? Yeah, totally. Oh yeah. I, those personalities are, are accurate for I think any like working class, close knit, like family, community, you know, obviously everything's heightened for television, but the Chicago of it all. Like, it's not even the characters so much. They don't have crazy Chicago accents, but the communities they talk about, the areas that they shoot in, the way they make the city look. There's Easter eggs in the show through season one and season two. More in season one than season two that it's one of those things if you know Chicago, you know, like there's a picture of Simeon Rice when he played at Illinois on the Wall of the Beef, right? And like, you'd only know that Simeon Rice matters to people in Chicago because he was a great Chicago high school football player who went to become a top five overall pick for the local Big Ten team at the time, Illinois. You discount Northwestern. Like, you're only going to get that if you know Chicago history. So to me, those things are interesting. Love it.
[06:25]
Simon Hunter
Almost as good as your Sid Luckman statue.
[06:29]
Chad Millman
You know what we're going to do today? We're going to talk about one of our favorite divisions in football, where there's plenty of statues to go around. It's our annual eight part Division by Division NFL Betting Preview. Starting with it started out as our least favorite division of football. I think it's turned into our favorite division of football. We're talking about the NFC South. Will the Falcons make a run with new coach Kevin Stefanski and TUA under center? Can the Bucks rebound with a healthier Baker Mayfield, even though Vita Vella wants out? Were the Saints a fluke with Tyler Schuck at the end of last year? Did they put themselves in a position to not be able to draft from a legendary potential quarterback draft class because it'll be too good? Most importantly, Simon, are we still Carolina Panthers Podcast, those are the questions we have today. Are you ready?
[07:33]
Simon Hunter
Let's get to it.
[07:35]
Chad Millman
Betting markets show a very even division. One of the most even divisions, top to bottom. Tampa Bay 8 1/2 win totals minus 135 under. New Orleans 7 1/2 wins minus 120 over. Not surprising with the enthusiasm for the Saints. Atlanta 7 1/2 135 under. Carolina 7 1/2 135 under. That number's gone up though, because didn't I like Carolina at six and a half when they first came out? You did okay. All right, so let's talk about Carolina. Like they're always our favorite team to bet. We go all in on the Panthers no matter what the year, no matter what the circumstances, we feel like we got a beat on this team. The Panthers up by four in the wild card versus the Rams. Under 40 seconds left before a beautiful pass from MVP Matthew Stafford ended the Carolina season. They are plus 350 to win their division. They are 40 to 1 to win the conference, 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Did you see how charming Bryce Young was in his intro in his opening press conference the other day?
[08:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, he's a great man. We all know that. That's how he got first overall picked. Chad. He charmed him in their meeting room.
[09:04]
Chad Millman
He was so freaking charming. He's like, any big news, any big, big milestones? One guy said he got married. One guy's like, I'm an empty nester. And Bryce Young was like, congratulations. Is that good? The guy's back. The guy is freaking ready. Dave Canales, Bryce Young, they are champions.
[09:28]
Simon Hunter
It also just shows how crazy football can be, right? The fact that they were, like you said, four points, winning by four points over the Rams, like, they just. We've seen it, right? When their offense is clicking, it is pretty impressive. They just, they were so inconsistent last year. We've never seen anything like it, right? Me and Chad would bet on them one week, we fed them the next. It worked like it was the most bizarre pattern. It worked every week. It was bizarre. So, yeah, this, this Panthers team, you know, like Chad said, the number has moved, right? So that was a good read by you. It's up to seven and a half now, so the pros were on it. I'm just like, I. I'm going to keep holding my. My point of view of this is it's going to be a tough schedule. That first place schedule is really tough. And the Bucks, who, you know, three years straight they had won this division, they still, even after a whole collapse, they still almost won the division at 8 and 9. So it wasn't like the Panthers are some type of juggernaut, right? They were a team that limped in and we've seen it time and time again in playoff history. Those home dogs in the wild card round that no one believes in, they. They play tough. So it's like I'm trying not to overreact too much of that playoff game and what happened last year, the Panthers and I think me, you, I think we stay mentality where we see a ton of talent here, but it feels like they were two years early, honestly, last year. Like it just to win your division eight, nine and all those things that break their way divisionally, where the Bucs kind of fell apart, Atlanta fell apart, and the Saints Won a bunch of games for them against those teams in their division to help them when this division the Panthers it just like they were so lucky. I. I just have to fade them this year. So the fact that then the under now is minus 135 at the, at the seven and a half. Not a ton of value there, Chad. I mean I feel like we can be patient there if we want to bet that in season. I just, I wouldn't be betting a number that juiced up where I think we both have the same mentality where it's like the Panthers getting eight wins again wouldn't be that shocked. Like they have that type of talent. Not just offensively. They've added to the defense like they're going to be a pretty good team but I think they're going to have eight or nine wins like that just to me to bet on that. Just feels there's no value there with the way their schedule is broken.
[11:34]
Chad Millman
Yeah and they also their defense, they needed help on the edge last year. They could not get a pass rush going. So that what they did, they went out and signed Jalen Phillips who when he can play can really be outstanding. The challenge has been injuries for him. So are you going to be getting a guy who's on the upswing, who showed what he was, who became a huge, a big, big piece of trade bait in the middle of last year or you're going to get a guy who could fall back into injury prone situations and they spent a lot of money on the guy because there were, there were competitors for Jaylen Phillips. So that's one big one. They might have improved at linebacker adding Devin Lloyd, but it's hard to say exactly. Like that's kind of where they spent their money in free agency on those two guys. We love Tettero McMillan, great rookie of the year, lived up to it, had some amazing catches. Totally believe the hype. They got rid of Rico Dowdle because they felt like they had. They had opportunities with Chuba Hubbard now to be the running back. So like I like where the Panthers are offensively, but I do think they won that division because the Bucks lost it. That's what I mean.
[12:55]
Simon Hunter
Just the, the value wasn't there. Like last year they were left for dead. Even we had left them for dead for the most part. So that was the thing. It's just there was no believers where this year they have believers. They really do. Like a lot of people are like okay this is a team that is slept on but obviously there is one team in this division that everyone's talking about, I think me and Chad are on the same page. So we should, we should keep it moving.
[13:21]
Chad Millman
I don't think this is the team. The Atlanta Falcons 8 and 9, humiliating three way division tie. Got rid of Raheem Morris. Got rid of GM Terry Font. No combined 0 playoffs for either plus 350 to win the division. 40 to 1 to win the conference. 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. So now they're getting Kevin Stefanski. He's been a two time NFL coach of the year. We like Stefanski, like what he has been able to do with the Browns over the years as they've continued to screw up. Their quarterback situation has been miraculous. Which is why one year he got coach of the year in addition to one of the years with Baker Mayfield. Now they got to, they got to it basically backfill until Michael Penix can come back from. I think it's his third ACL tier tear in his career. A couple of them playing for the Indiana Hoosiers. Kirk Cousins is gone. They traded away their first round pick in 25 to get a pass rusher. They didn't really add much. They spent money on Johan Doson at wide receiver to replace Darnell Mooney. They got rid of Alier. So I'll have a take here. I think Kevin Stefanski with TUA could be a really good combination if TUA can stay healthy. Yeah.
[14:56]
Simon Hunter
What's better than having one left handed quarterback? Chad? Having two. So I, I look at this team where it's like I've given my opinion on it. I would, if I am a scout in the NFL, I am old school. I would never ever waste time scouting a left handed quarterback. I just. We have the day and the numbers, they just do not work out in this league. Whatever it is, it's. It's different come out of their hands. Guys don't react to it. You say maybe it's just a talent level. Whatever your excuses, I, I just don't like left handed quarterbacks. And I immediately saw this team, I was like, this is, this is so perfectly on brand for them. Having two left handed quarterbacks in Atlanta. And it's a team that I'm giving no love to, not even paying attention to would make total sense for them to win this division. That's usually how the south works. But they just feel like a team that people are going to get blinded by the fantasy football names. Right? Bijan, Robinson, London. Tons of talent, right. You get, you get a quarterback like you know Caleb Williams or whoever in there, this would be a, you know, a team that we would all be talking about shoeing to win this division. Right. That's just so much talent offensively. You would think if they had the right piece in there, they'd be able to move it. So I don't think your assessment's wrong to think Tool could come in there and put it together.
[16:03]
Advertisement Voice / Narrator
Right.
[16:03]
Simon Hunter
We've seen him do it before. My question is he's still mentally right. This is a guy that's taken insane hits to the head, and we've seen those add up. He just doesn't look mentally sharp, let alone his interviews.
[16:14]
Chad Millman
Sure.
[16:15]
Simon Hunter
He's an idiot when he talks. That's not a big deal to me. Right. It's. It's okay. Like, if you're football smart, I could care less how you're publicly perceived. I don't know if the football smarts are there anymore, Chad. That's my fear with him. It's just he's regressed in so many ways. Football and, you know, his footwork has regressed, in my opinion. There's just a lot of stuff with him that I have major questions about. That's why he's there with. No. I mean, they paid him basically nothing. So, Tua, this is it. So I don't hate the play by Chad where it's like, if you're viewing this as a new head coach, there's always gonna be this one random team that's gonna get a bump for the new head coach. The Fanski fits that mold. They're really smart. Offensive guy, tons of talent on this team. Can he get the most out of Tua? Can he get the most out of Penix? It's impossible to say. It's like two guys that just. They've disappointed me so much, Chad. I just don't want to be putting money behind them right now.
[17:02]
Chad Millman
What have you seen from tua? You say footwork, and footwork is so important in the kind of offense he ran with Miami, and it's also going to be important in the offense he runs with Stefanski, which is largely a timing offense. What have you seen footwork wise, that troubles you?
[17:22]
Simon Hunter
He's got the jitters. He's. He's. Honestly, he's got. Whatever it is. He's not staying, like, solid on his base. He's on. Either on his toes too much or he's not stepping into his throws. He's just. I feel like he's just taking too many hits and he's. That's in the back of his mind, just the way his footwork is now gotten worse where he's not trusting the pocket, he's not trusting himself. You say, well, he's in Atlanta now, maybe that will change. I don't know if it's that easy to fix a football. Guys, it's, it's really all mental in this league. Like guys do get the yips for taking so many hits. We've seen that time and time again. So I'm just worried that we've already seen the best of TUA and that that's my fear with it. But I do like what you've said though with the idea of like this is the exact time this Atlanta team should work out. Like we've all kind of left them for dead here. And I know some professionals have taken a position on just because if TUA does get it right in this division with those weapons, this could easily be a 10 win team, 9 win team. So I would say there's more support that people realize. This Atlanta team, it's not all love for another team. We're about to talk about, well, look,
[18:20]
Chad Millman
Atlanta minus seven and a half. It's minus 135 to the under. So it's plus money to get the over, which is an interesting opportunity also because their defense, they did, they were just so much better as a pass rush last year. Now how much of that was Raheem Morris and him being a defensive specialist and how much did the offense suffer because of that? So was there all of a sudden just a complete flip and where the emphasis is and they're a much better offensive team but their defense suffers? We don't know that yet. But I'm a buyer on Stefanski. I, I just, I think the guy's been in terrible positions and what he did in Cleveland should not be discounted. That team could be competitive like they were, they were competitive last year. We bet on them with Dylan Gabriel because of that defense and because of Stefanski. So it's interesting to me. It's very interesting. Let's do a quick word from Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by
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Sponsor Announcer
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[19:22]
Chad Millman
Some folks call this the slow period until football season.
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Chad Millman
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[21:09]
Simon Hunter
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[21:25]
Chad Millman
All right, so you've been hinting that there is a team that is sort of the one we're eyeing. I'll be honest, I don't know which one we're talking about. To me, it's the Bucks or the Saints for two vastly different reasons. I feel like it's the Bucks. Right?
[21:41]
Simon Hunter
It's not. I'm sorry.
[21:43]
Chad Millman
Okay, then let's talk about the Saints last. Let's talk about the Bucks first, because to me, there is a huge wild card here with the Bucks. They kept top bowls. Let me run through some of their numbers here before we get into that. They kept Todd Bowls. They're plus 175 to win the division, 22 to 1 to win the conference, 50 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Clearly the favorite from the NFC South, Todd Bowles gets gets another chance. Baker Mayfield gets his fourth year, so his longest run other than Cleveland. They drafted Ruben Bain, who I was a huge Fan of feels like they walked into a Warren SAP situation because someone was trying to plant ugly stories about Reuben Bain right before the draft. Added linebacker Alexand alone. Great. Added Kenneth Gainwell. Steelers offensive MVVP last year. 73 receptions for Kenneth Gainwell. Don't forget their offense started to struggle last year when Bucky Irving got injured. That was a huge issue for them. Vita Vea wants out. Chances are they'll just give more money and he'll stay. The question is, can Baker bake? Will he be injured? How long can he last? How much can we count on him?
[23:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and they gotta get Diabeta Va done. I. I can't believe that they got contract disputes with him and Baker. That's just not the way you want to be heading to this. No, my view is, it's just. I love this team, obviously. I just don't think the value there is betting wise. And yeah, if you want to take the over eight and a half, you could do that if you want. It's probably better just to bet them to win the division. Right? At a. At a bigger plus number. Because if they're going to get the 10 wins, that usually wins this division. I mean, we know the deal, the NFC south, it's just, it's an ugly mud fight. And you know, last year, that total collapse they had, that's got to be in the back of their minds, right? That's something that can motivate this Bucs team head in this season. I don't know about a lot of other people, but they have. I have them great as my fifth best offensive line. So judges said if they got Gainwell, you got Bucky back. They're giving time to Baker. I mean, the Mecca Buka takes that next step with Godwin. That's a really, really good offense. So I love. They're trying to address the defense that was consistently at Achilles heel for them last year. They had a couple of games where, you know, offensively they're putting up a ton of numbers. They just could not get stops. And then you know what happens. Baker is going to turn the ball over. And you have Baker chasing from behind. He will turn the ball over. That's just who he is. He's got a ton of Brett Favre in him. Hopefully only the good things. But I can't get over this, this team, the Bucs, where it's like we talk all the time about letting these coordinators leave, and I just feel like they're paying for their sins. I'm not signing Lincoln, like keeping around a head Coach, where, you know, we. We like Todd Bowles. He feels like a dinosaur to me in so many ways. His views. I mean, we've had a couple of times we bet the Bucks, and he's punting on fourth downs, where it's like, dude, all the Atlantic. All the Atlantic numbers are telling you here. You have to go for it. And you have an offense in Baker. You need to trust this quarterback. This isn't the 25th quarterback in this league. This is a guy that's in the top 15, top 10.
[25:05]
Chad Millman
You.
[25:05]
Simon Hunter
You need to trust him in those moments, and that's hurt Todd Bowles, in my opinion, a lot of ways. So. Love the Bucks. I think we'll be able to get better value during the season. I'll take a position there. So I have no bets, honestly, if I'm on their win totals or their division odds. I just. I steered clear so far on this Bucks team, but the more numbers I dive into, it's like, my God, this offense could be an absolute juggernaut.
[25:27]
Chad Millman
It's just about Baker, right? Like, and we talked about this with. With Rich Rebar. They're going to have Zach Robinson, who's going to be the offensive coordinator now. And look, who knows? Like, so many of these guys end up feeling like, you know, Rams retreads. Like, you're just grabbing a guy who was on the Rams staff and hoping that he's great. It's worked out for them. You're right about Liam Cohen. They had him in the building. They could have kept him. And then all of a sudden, they lost them. But it's Baker. It's Baker or bust. That's it. That's all you can count on. And, dude, we had some heartbreakers with Baker last year. Like, he truly. Some games, he. He won us some money, but he also hurt our feelings.
[26:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, people gloss over Baker, went to Seattle, put up, what was it, 35 points against that Seattle defense and one one in Seattle. Like, that first month and month and a half, it was insane how good Baker was in that team. And just like we said, Chad, those injuries catch up to him. So that's just. That's my hesitation right now. It's like, am I really about to invest this guy in the next seven months that he can't help himself to take these bad hits? So this year, like I said before, when you have the old line, the talent around it, it's kind of hard to keep making excuses for these type of players. It's on you. You're the one taking these bad Hits and trying to do too much. And that's, that's how I'm feeling a little bit here with Baker, Simon, the
[26:57]
Chad Millman
New Orleans Saints, their win total is seven and a half, minus 120 to the over. The Saints are taking money on the over at seven and a half, all because Tyler Schuck made a glorious run for Rookie of the Year. What did you bet on that last year for Rookie of the Year? You could have won $100,000, something like that.
[27:20]
Simon Hunter
200 to 1.
[27:22]
Chad Millman
200 to 1. You could have won a couple hundred grand on Tyler Stock winning Rookie of the Year. You gave it out on the show. I stupidly did not listen and then had to suffer every single week at the end of the year when he went four of his last five to get this team to six and 11 on the year. And that's why everyone's all in on them right now. The question is, is that sort of false hope? Are we identifying something that is on the upswing? Did they play themselves out of position to draft someone?
[27:57]
Advertisement Voice / Narrator
Great.
[27:59]
Chad Millman
Get Arch Manning plus two. Hold on, let me put on my glasses. I'm not able to read this one. Plus 260 to win the division, 40 to 1 to win the conference, 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Kellen Moore in the second season, look, same numbers as the Panthers and same numbers as the Falcons. So what are we missing here?
[28:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, this is my biggest bet by far in this division is on the plus 270, plus 260, whatever you can find on this team to win this division. And I look at the Saints and it's just like, okay, my question was, are they going to go all in on shock right after what they saw last year? And they have, they've really addressed the offensive line. Could be another offensive line in the top five. Honestly, like them and the Bucks offensive line grade wise aren't that different in my, in my grading scheme. And they brought Kamara back even though they have Travis etn. So that to me is another bonus. It's like, okay, you got your one veteran guy who's not gonna be complaining, making toxic in the locker room. He's gonna be all in. And you bring on the new guy who you just paid, who's actually really talented. I think ETN's a really good back, especially behind that offensive line where the Jags didn't have the best offensive line. He still was able to put in pretty impressive numbers. And Kellen Moore, I can't give enough credit to this guy, right what he did for Jalen Hurts getting him to that super bowl and winning the Super Bowl. Now what he's done for Shuck in his career, it's been really impressive. So it just feels like it's all there. It really does. Where it's like, am I buying fool's gold with Shuck? I could be like, we could be walking right into it. But he has a last place schedule. As great as that run was for them, they still came in fourth in this division.
[29:35]
Chad Millman
Division.
[29:36]
Simon Hunter
So they have the easiest schedule as anyone else in this division. And I think they have almost all the same amount of talent as that Bucs team does. Like, people are gonna be shocked. Defensively, this Saints team's actually pretty good. Like they've added pieces as well to this defense that I think people remember last year early in the season, their defenses were keeping a lot of games right. It was Rattler that kept turning the ball over. That's what kept hurting them. They kept losing games that way. So I, I'm really excited for the Saints team to see if they can be that team that takes that next step. But definitely the professional, better community. It's too much love. That's my fear chat. Like every pro I. With every guy I'm talking to, we all just absolutely love this Saints team. That really is the conversation. We're just a lot of Saints love and a lot of Atlanta teams. Like a lot of people are like, Atlanta is a good sleeper. The Saints are a good sleeper in this division. That's usually when the Bucks do kind of win it, right? When everyone's kind of not talking about them at all. We've seen that before. That that Bucks team that, you know, it's. It's usually their division to win and we are overlooking them a little bit. I just can't get over the talent level of this stance team. Like if Shuck really is what he proved to be, which was big time throws like Chad, we bet on him. We saw in those games big. Yeah. Anytime we need him, save us. He really didn't. Olave is that type outside receiver, talent wise that can do that. And in the draft they draft another receiver for him. Like they're all in on Shuck here. So yeah, people can tell I'm really excited for this team and betting this number and the fact that still above plus 250, I think is great value here. It's just. It's such a mismatch, crappy division. I don't think the books can go that low. Like what are they gonna keep Dropping Atlanta, they're gonna keep dropping Carolina. Are they really gonna drop the books anymore? Like, I feel like they're at the max level. They can price because it was plus 350. So the pros have been hitting this one pretty hard. And I. I do think by the time we get the kickoff chat, I think hard rock, especially drop below +250. I just think more and more public betters are going to come in on the Saints teams get closer to the
[31:25]
Chad Millman
season, Shock will chuck, and it don't give a fuck. What do you think of that?
[31:34]
Simon Hunter
Oh, God.
[31:36]
Chad Millman
Listen, we're a literary podcast, but how many plays did he make last year? Look, that last game against the Panthers, right? Like, he came down to a couple of throws from winning offensive rookie of the year. He really did. Like, I think there's a couple of times where the Panthers went for it on fourth down. They ended up scoring, and it forced Shock to have to put the Saints in a really difficult position. And he had to, you know, he had to win the game, and he didn't. But he was. He was fearless. He played like an old man. He played like a guy who's 26 years old.
[32:17]
Simon Hunter
So I think you nailed. In that moment, though, he finally looked like a rookie after, like five weeks of always showing up in that moment, he finally looked like where he made a couple stupid mistakes. It's like, okay, this kid is human. Because at one point, like you said, he was about to win rookie of the year, where he was, like I said, 201. Six weeks before that, he was nowhere to be found, left for dead. It was the total freak anomaly. That's. That's. I think Chad's summarizing. My fear here, people, is where it's like, was that. Am I buying fool's gold here? Was that real what we saw? Or was that just a streaky quarterback that none of these defensive coordinators had film on and Kellen Moore took advantage of that? Or did we just watch the birth of, you know, the next 10, 15 year starter for the Saints? The Saints, organizationally, they're all in as if he is. So that's why I'm so excited about bed in this team where it's like the organization is supporting him. They're putting all the resources behind them. I got to put my money behind them because I just. I believe in with the situation.
[33:11]
Chad Millman
He was a miracle. I remember when you talked about it, I think it was a Sunday night and they hadn't even won the game, and he was at 201. In every single week after that. And because I didn't bet it, you made a point of bringing it up and pointing out that I didn't bet it. And you know what? Because I love you so much, because you are my bff, I never rooted against it. I didn't have any schadenfreude about it. I only wanted there to be success. What's good for you is good for the show. It's good for me. It's good for Matt Mitchell. I was all in. I was a little bit crushed when he threw those picks at the end of the Panthers game. But all of this feels like, oh, my God, we found our starter. And then, you know, he turns back into a pumpkin after week two.
[34:03]
Simon Hunter
He could. But this is what you want if you're a fan of the organization, right? Just like the way the Bears treated Caleb. Like they went all in on Caleb and basically got him the coach and used the draft as well to try to make Caleb better. Right. The Saints are doing the same thing here. Everything they've done in free agency, everything they've done in the draft, it's like, oh, my God, they think they have a guy. They're all in supporting this guy. So that, to me, is what's been so impressive. You see some teams, you know, be half in, half out, right? Like, they could be. Exactly. We're talking about where it's like, are we really sure about this guy? Really sure about going all in on this? And I love that they are. And I told you my viewpoint of it. The Saints can't lose here if Shuck is a total bus and a flop. Great, great draft class coming out this year, and they're not invested that much in what was your second or third round pick like that much in the first place. So really, really nice spot to be as a Saints organizationally.
[34:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I'm excited for Kellen Moore. I was really glad that they actually turned it around last year and people got to see that he's a really good coach. And I. Because. Because I thought he kept his team in games last year with the game plan, knowing the limitations of Spencer Rattler. And then it really started to open up when Tyler Shock was playing from behind in a lot of these games. So I'd love. I love it for him. You know, I love an underdog story. All right, so we'll invest in the New Orleans Saints at +260.
[35:23]
Simon Hunter
You have a team in the Division I really, that you love. Is Atlanta your team or just.
[35:27]
Chad Millman
You know, it's funny it's like you're in my head. I was just. I was just thinking to myself, like, they're a fun long shot, but why am I not more aggressive on the Bucks? Like the way we lay. I like the way we laid it out. If Baker's got a Mecca, if Baker's got Godwin, if Baker's got Gainwell, if he's got Bucky Irving, he's got a really good offensive line. Why don't I love this team? Like, why can't I commit full force to this team? Atlanta is a little bit of a. You got a squint to believe it. And Carolina is emotional. Right. So I don't know why I can't commit to the Bucs.
[36:15]
Simon Hunter
It is interesting. The books have them both at +350. Atlanta and Carolina +350 to win the division. It just.
[36:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
[36:22]
Simon Hunter
I mean, obviously I think we'll go through all the different divisions. This is probably the lowest odds of all four teams combined.
[36:26]
Chad Millman
Sure.
[36:27]
Simon Hunter
Divisionally. So even the sports books are like, don't want to give too much value out there because we have no idea either. So it is crazy to think the Saints were at +350 and they're the only one that's been bet down well and Atlanta have both gone up. So you can definitely see the professional monies coming early here.
[36:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I don't know if I believe enough in tua. It's like in theory, I like it all, but I don't know if I believe it. Kyle Pitt seemed to be great for three games when it was time to get a new contract. Bijan is great when it doesn't matter. Those are my issues, I think with Atlanta, if I look at it, sort of clear headed without being irrationally optimistic, I think the Bucks, I think in the end it's the Bucks. The Bucks just have the best team and the best quarterback.
[37:19]
Simon Hunter
All right, I'll see you in January.
[37:21]
Chad Millman
All right. All right. Simon Hunter. This has been sharp or Square, part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
[37:36]
Sponsor Announcer
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[37:37]
Chad Millman
Subscribe to the channel, Download some Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want.
[37:44]
Sponsor Announcer
Feedback is a gift.
[37:45]
Chad Millman
Until next time. Love you.
[37:50]
Simon Hunter
It may feel. Oh, beautiful, huh? A good way to wind up in concussion protocol even though you don't get into the game.
[37:59]
Chad Millman
Oh, boy.
[38:00]
Simon Hunter
Take one for the team.
[38:01]
Podcast Host (Nora Jones / iHeart Podcast Announcer)
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Sharp Or Square - NFC SOUTH BETTING PREVIEW: Falcons, Saints, Texans & Panthers Predictions

Sharp Or Square - NFC SOUTH BETTING PREVIEW: Falcons, Saints, Texans & Panthers Predictions

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp Or Square - NFC SOUTH BETTING PREVIEW

Episode Overview

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. NFC South Landscape & Win Totals

2. Carolina Panthers: Hype, Caution, & Roster Moves

3. Atlanta Falcons: New Coach, New QBs, Unanswered Questions

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Offensive Juggernaut—or Heartbreak?

5. New Orleans Saints: The Consensus Sharp Play

6. General Takeaways & Final Instincts

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Key Timestamps

Betting Recommendations Round-Up

Tone & Style

Listen If:

Final Word

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp Or Square - NFC SOUTH BETTING PREVIEW

Episode Overview

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. NFC South Landscape & Win Totals

2. Carolina Panthers: Hype, Caution, & Roster Moves

3. Atlanta Falcons: New Coach, New QBs, Unanswered Questions

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Offensive Juggernaut—or Heartbreak?

5. New Orleans Saints: The Consensus Sharp Play

6. General Takeaways & Final Instincts

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Key Timestamps

Betting Recommendations Round-Up

Tone & Style

Listen If:

Final Word