← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL Conference Championship Sunday Bets: Patriots-Broncos, Rams-Seahawks
00:45:50
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human new year.
- [00:06]
Matt Mitchell
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- [00:15]
Simon Hunter
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- [00:50]
Chad Norman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rod that we are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Norman. I am joined as always by my bff, my co host, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:16]
Simon Hunter
Chad, my man, you survived the Hard Rock. Let's hear all about it.
- [01:21]
Chad Norman
Dude, there's so much emotion flooding so many memories to unpack. This is what's beautiful about sports. So many things are beautiful about sports. It's why we do this. It's why we love it. Like you, me, Mitch, like, we are very passionate fans at heart of the teams that we root for. And a lot of people who we are connected within our universe are aware of how passionate we are about sports and the teams that we root for. Between the end of the game last night and when I woke up this morning, I had more than 200 texts from people congratulating me on Indiana winning the national title. And I just think that's amazing that, like, there's so many people who understand, like the connection that we all have to sports, that they would see Indiana winning and know how much I love Indiana and be texting me about it. I didn't have that many people reach out when I had kids, right? Like, that is astonishing to me. Yesterday was so freaking glorious. And again, sort of in the theme of sports. Let me, let me sort of put some, some stuff in context for you here. So I had mentioned on the show that, you know, I'd gone to Atlanta with my buddy Matt. We've been best friends since second grade, right? Me, Matt, and our buddy Andy. We've all been grown up Together. We went to grammar school together, middle school together, high school together. We all went to iu. Matt and Andy went to the Big Ten title game. Me and Matt went to the game in Atlanta. And then Andy met us in Miami for the championship game, along with Matt's wife. And my wife was here. So on Monday morning, me and Matt and our wives are sitting together at breakfast. And Matt and I both started dating our wives in college. And Matt and I were in college together. We met these women. We met our wives studying abroad. They are very close friends. We have had family vacations with all of our kids who are all in the same age range. Seven straight spring breaks because they're in California, we're in Connecticut. The spring breaks lined up. We are very, very close. There's no distance between us as families, right? At one point yesterday morning, and again, we had watched the Bears game together. We were so antsy about that. But like the Bears, we sort of. We loved and they gave us a great ride, but we didn't have expectations. And in the morning at breakfast, it's about noon, let's say it's lunch. Lisa's mom passed away recently. My wife's dad passed away in the past couple years. And they start having this very intense conversation about grief and how they're trying to process it but still take care of the parent who was still alive. And in the middle of that, I look at Matt and I'm like, what do you think? He goes, we're fucked. We completely disconnected from this very deep conversation because I said. He said, we're fucked. I go, were not. And what he was talking about was the karma. The Bears had lost the night before. He thought the karma of our fandom was going to be connected to the Bears losing. And now Indiana was going to lose. We had a good 15 minute conversation about, is the karma connected to us or is the karma connected to the teams? And the way it finally came down, I broke it down this way. The Bears, they had great karma this year, but they were not a team of destiny. Their loss is not connected to our fandom and Indiana's success or failure. Because Indiana is better than karma. They can outrun karma. They are not about this small school that didn't do well, that doesn't have a football history. Chris Signetti put all that aside. He said, this whole narrative is rat poison. They are about the six seconds that matter in the play and then what happens next. And those plays are not connected to each other. We went through this whole thing. Our wives are having this very intense conversation, this was our entire focus. We had completely transitioned to putting ourselves in the mental mindset to be at that game, to be fully committed to that game. Thirteen hours later, we're in the car leaving the stadium, and I just go, matt. He goes, yeah. I go, matt, he goes, you were right. The karma was not connected. I feel like anyone who is a sports fan, tell me you can feel that. Tell me you understand that. Because, like, my whole day was about, like, peak sports fandom. It was just freaking glorious.
- [06:15]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think all that stuff can matter to you, but, you know, it's. Does it really matter when. When people praise God at the end of a football game, was God really reason they won that football game? But I think at the end of.
- [06:24]
Chad Norman
The day, if Chris Signetti is God, then yes, yes.
- [06:27]
Simon Hunter
Just. You saw in that game the difference the right coach with the right quarterback can make. Like I always say, and that call on what was a 4th and 2, or maybe it was 4th and 5.
- [06:39]
Chad Norman
4Th and 5 by.
- [06:41]
Simon Hunter
You know, it's like that. Even if you said it was a read, it was either going to be a sneak or like a quick pass. And I think he broke it down, where the defense was basically split and he had to make a quick decision. You know, that was. We're playing to win. I'm not kicking the three here. Either we get burned here, we get stopped, or we're going for a touchdown. And, you know, Signetti talk all the time about how important coaching is. Like, I just. I can't believe it. You know, I'm gonna let you bask in it. I know you said, well, you already turned down Penn State. There's no way he's going to NFL. I just can't get over how good of a coach he is and how there are nine opening jobs right now, one of which could easily be filled by him. But, you know, if I'm an Indiana fan, you know, it's gonna be tough to replace quarterback, obviously, but if he stays, it feels like this is just the beginning, which is just crazy to think you guys becoming a powerhouse in college football. But to go 160 to do that, something we never seen before, and, you know, in that game wasn't their best game. Right. There's a lot of things they did sloppily, but all three aspects, right? The defense showed up in the first half, the special team showed up in the second half, and at the end of the game, when you needed the drive, you needed the touchdown. You know, it's. It's crazy. I can't. I still can't believe it. Chad. I'm honestly just like you. I'm still in shock that the Indiana hoosiers are the first 160 team in college football history and won the national title. So, yeah, congrats to you, buddy. And I'm just happy you went down there because it's, you know, it's. As a, as a fan that has been to a Super bowl that his team lost and I've never gone back. It's. It's a huge risk. Buddy, I'm not going to lie to you that that walk out of the stadium isn't just a 20 minute walk to your car. It's a five month walk through your life. So I was so happy they won because the whole time I was thinking, oh my God, poor Chad. Miami has the ball, they're driving, it's on six points. They're going to get the touchdown here to win this game. And like I said, the coaching matters. He took a random timeout, let the defense reset, led Beck in his head, say, hey, I'm gonna take a deep shot here. I'm gonna beat these guys in that timeout and threw a horrible pass in a double coverage. And yeah, just again, I can't get over how great of a coaching mastermind it was. And you know, Fernando Mendoza, your, your, your, your QB finally dropped an F word. I was just so happy. I was so happy to hear him drop that F bomb at the podium. It's just he's. I'm excited for him again. It's gonna be highly debatable. Talk about in the draft, but in that moment, it's like, man, talk about being on top of the world, beating your hometown team. Oh my God, they rejected you. Life full circle. It was a beautiful moment.
- [09:17]
Chad Norman
Listen, it's so funny that you mentioned that walk, right? Because we were sitting in that game walk and the. Oh God, we were sitting in that game. And you know, the Hoosiers had first. We thought it was a first down with just after the two minute timeout. And then they made it a second one and then we were even happier because we're like, okay, second and one. Like they get the first down and we're in great position. Miami has to start using all of its timeouts. They'll get the ball back with 16 seconds left and we'll probably kick a field goal and be up 6, right? And then that false start happens. And we immediately looked at each other and we're like, we just lost the national championship because everyone could See how it was going to play out. Like, they were going to end up having, like, 102 seconds. And that's plenty of time in college football if you're getting first downs. So, yeah, we were starting to envision that walk back. But, like, you talk about investing in teams and going to the games and taking that risk. You know, we spend so much time rooting for these teams and, like, loving these teams and loving. Investing our time and our energy in these teams. And, like, every season ends in disappointment for every fan except for one team. And I felt that 24 hours earlier with the Bears. And, like, you know, as we mentioned last episode, as Matt Mitchell reminded us, it's only through suffering that we feel most alive.
- [11:00]
Simon Hunter
But to me, the biggest losers this is, this would be the Cardinals winning a.
- [11:05]
Chad Norman
Yes.
- [11:05]
Simon Hunter
Two years from now. The biggest joke loser franchise just totally getting the head coach and turn it around. I literally, I am in shock. I can't get over it. It is true.
- [11:14]
Chad Norman
Listen, I called my younger son after the game, leaving the stadium and, like, was so caught up in my feelings. I just told him, like, I cannot wait for him to have this kind of experience. I don't know when it's going to happen. I don't know if it's going to happen when he's in college. I don't know it's going to happen when he's out of college. I don't know it's going to happen when he's in his 50s. Like, me, I want it for him so bad. I want him to feel this in person. It is such a freaking high. Like, I haven't even felt like a functioning human being for the past two weeks between getting organized to go to Atlanta, going to Atlanta, that unbelievable experience, and then turning around and deciding we're going to Miami without even having tickets yet. And then Hard Rock coming through for us, which, by the way, in all seriousness, like, they crushed it. I was in Florida. I downloaded the app and was online in the app in 30 seconds. Like, this was a no joke. Unbelievably good product. And then I did go to the casino yesterday. A lot of people probably saw the video that I posted. It was bonkers. It was like being in Vegas. It was glorious inside the casino and the sportsbook was rocking.
- [12:19]
Simon Hunter
So before we move on, are you. Are you. Is there parade? Is that how they do it for the Hoosiers?
- [12:24]
Chad Norman
It's a good question. I don't know. I can't. I can't go to the parade somewhere. I got to get Back to life. And by the way, Kirkwood in Bloomington last night was literally on fire. Like what? You know my buddy Matt increase the polls. I didn't see them. Greece and polls. But my buddy Matt, his kid is a sophomore at Indiana.
- [12:40]
Simon Hunter
Oh, nice.
- [12:41]
Chad Norman
He was just sending videos to us while we were in the car driving back. Like of all the video, like the craziness that was happening at these bars. It was. People were camping out like the bars that I used to go to in college. People had started camping out the night before to get in.
- [12:56]
Simon Hunter
And those aren't even colleges. They're probably like 30, 40 year olds.
- [12:59]
Chad Norman
Dude, they were charging $3,000 for a table to watch the championship game at some of the bars in Bloomington last night.
- [13:05]
Simon Hunter
No, you guys have a huge alumni, man. It's. It is wild final thing.
- [13:09]
Chad Norman
I'll say. There is just an argument that Indiana just had the greatest college football season of all time. As you mentioned, first team that 16, 0 since 1894, second best point differential of all time. Had the Heisman winner, top five defense, top five offense, beat Iowa on the road, beat Oregon on the road, beat Penn State on the road, beat the number one ranked defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big ten title game. As you pointed out, the only team so far in the playoff era to win coming off the bye, which shows you how good their coaching is. And they dominated Alabama, Oregon and then beat Miami in Miami and I would say it felt like a home game for the hoosiers. Like easily 65% of the stadium was Indiana. But you could see the line Miami maybe had from the 50 to like the back of one end zone. Indiana had from the back of that end zone all the way around to the other 50. It was remarkable how many Indiana fans were there. Just. Just glorious. I'm in meanwhile, just being slapped back to reality. Simon. Yeah, one in four in the contest again last week. This is our first one in four back to back weeks in our history. Bad beats, bad calls mixed together. Bad calls by us by the way. Not refs did. I'm not, I'm no Sean McDermott. I'm not complaining about the refs by bad beats and bad calls did us in. Loss was Seattle, San Francisco under 45 and a half. New England, Houston under 40 and a half. San Francisco plus seven and a half. The Rams minus four and a half. One with New England minus three and a half. In our nine week Hard Rock Bet contest we are now 53 and 47 with two weeks left. Let's look at the leaderboard in our Sherpa Square Pro Football pick them contest, four entries are now tied at the top of 25 wins. The entry named Ropamo sits on top. Matt Mitchell looked up their tiebreaker differentials. The top two entries are separated by under 100 yards. So it's going to be a dog fight to the finish, folks. Good luck. This is our Tuesday Conference Championship round show. We're done with Chad's choice for the season. We're basically done with our named bets. But Simon, you do have a Simon says so we'll get to that. We have a brass balls. We'll have our normal Tuesday Thursday shows through the end of the season. We'll do our normal Sunday pre kickoff. We will do our Sunday night show after Ram Seahawks. These will be our final Sunday episodes. As always, we do not do Sunday episodes on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll have the four regular episodes over those two weeks. Okay, final order of business. You know this week's slate includes sides and totals for the conference championship games. If you are in love with these games, as we teased, we've also added player props, one per team, all hands selected by Matt Mitchell. We'll mention each one as we get into the show. And of course, we can't start without a word from a friend, Matt Mitchell, about the Buffalo Bills doing the right thing and firing Sean McDermott. Matt, what do you got to say here?
- [16:36]
Matt Mitchell
I am surprised at how universally negative the reaction has been, mostly from Bill's fans because of the ascension of GM Brandon Bean to basically president of football operations in a move reminiscent of Tom Donahoe's disastrous tenure as president 25 years ago. I shouldn't be surprised because only a loser fan base like ours could see a bad thing happen at a really good thing happen and think that no good things have happened. They don't seem to remember Sean McDermott running among a million other mistakes. A fake punt with Jamar Hamlin with the season on the line. I would have thrown him over Niagara Falls with my own hands after that play. And he still got to coach and kind of rehabbed his image a lot this year with with a pretty lousy roster. But I am not a disciple of the cult of very good. The Bills are very good. They've been very good for six years. I am happy to slide back into the depths to spin the wheel and perhaps become a championship team. The fact that the players like them a lot. I couldn't imagine something I care less about than the players liking the coach. If it's a Non championship coach like the Eagles seem to absolutely hate their coaches guts and he's made it to two Super Bowls and he's won one. We have teams like the Patriots win Super Bowls, totally bottom out, hire a coach, fire a coach, get a whole new quarterback and have already exceeded our own success in the time it's taken us to try to get to a Super Bowl. So like it feels ludicrous to be too upset about this. And the last thing I'll say is, is I'm seeing some of the Bill's mafia leadership selling a mug that says Buffalo versus the refs. Maybe one of the biggest loser pieces.
- [18:24]
Chad Norman
Of such a loser thing to do.
- [18:26]
Matt Mitchell
Everyone listening to this. If you see me drinking out of that mug, it's because it contains the elixir that will end my life. That's the only excuse for drinking out of something like that if you're a Buffalo Bills fan. Guys, we got it. We got to get our heads right and start worrying about things that matter. Like one championship before we all die. Thank you, Chad.
- [18:47]
Chad Norman
Thank you, Matt. From the high to the low, let's get into it. New England at Denver, this game at Hard Rock bet. I looked it up this morning on the Hard Rock bet app. Denver plus five and a half. The total is 42. Look, obviously the story here is, is Jared Stidham starting for Bo Nix. Line hasn't really budged since Sunday night. There's actually one five out there and there's a. There are a couple of totals at 41 and a half. Simon, I want to ask you, like I thought if Bonix was starting this line one and a half or two, you know, a seven point swing. What do you think?
- [19:30]
Simon Hunter
Simon says, give me the Denver Broncos. I want to play a game. Simon says, I might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team with this number. Chad, this is how egregious this line movement is.
- [19:42]
Chad Norman
Wow.
- [19:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's. It's too much. Way too much. As much respect as I'm giving to Bo Nicks, I do think he is a reason they are where they're at. He's played great this year, but I had them at a minus three and a half point favorite. The Broncos over New England. Even with their injuries to the wide receiver position. You're telling me Bo Nix is worth 8, 9 points? It's not, it's impossible. This is just simply public overreacting. Investing way too much money into just a horrible number. And you know right away when I saw this matchup, it's like, okay, we'll see. You know, can I just be patient because I didn't want to say anything Sunday night. I knew right away I'm going to be hammering this one. I remember you had something about cinnamon like I was messing with you, but it was really like, okay, can this get the six? And we just literally. I was going to put an obscene amount of money on this if it ever got to six. So I still might. I'm just grabbing the five and a half now because there's no way the professionals don't come in and just hammer this line.
- [20:42]
Chad Norman
Yeah, I mean, we've seen it start to go down.
- [20:44]
Simon Hunter
Me and Chad talked a little bit about is much praise I gave. Drake May already threw three touchdowns. It was impressive. Their offense could not do anything against that Houston defense. Now, do I think Denver's defense is as good as Houston? No, I do not. I do. I do think they can get after a quarterback. And what have we seen so far early in Drake May's career here? Chad, against good defenses, seems like he struggles to protect the ball. And let's just run through it again. It's gonna be a non biased stat. Two games, Drake May, he's taken 10 sacks. 10 sacks again, that's.
- [21:16]
Chad Norman
And many fumbles.
- [21:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's good defenses. He's fumbled six times, Chad. Not just many fumbles. Six fumbles and he's throwing two picks. Like he's just. He struggled exactly what we thought he would struggle. Right. Against good defenses. My whole view of that was just, you know, last week I thought that was a really tough spot for Houston to walk into that. I did not. I had no idea CJ was gonna have the type of meltdown. But that's what really saved Drake May. Right? New England fans, they should be happy, right? Their quarterback, this new, this new toy, he did throw those three touchdowns. Despite all those bad turnovers and how sloppy he played. He showed up in the red zone. So I get why they're so excited, the public, though, to come in with the Patriots fans on this one and overreact totally to that game. And I mean, they've left the Broncos for dead. Totally left her for dead.
- [22:01]
Chad Norman
Just.
- [22:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the media's talking about it and it's another play where we don't have to take the Broncos money line if you. I am obviously going to bet it. It's the move here is simply taking the Broncos at 13 to 1 for the Super Bowl. That's where they're at in a lot of books. Like, again, they're deader than dead. They, they're 131 and all they would do is win two games. You will never see these odds again ever in the rest of your life. Because this is so unique. We've never had a conference championship team. I think they've been a three point dog before, over 300 points. Never in my lifetime. And I looked. Evan Ames said it's never happened before. So this is totally unique. And you know, I'm about to hit people over the head with thousands of stats because that's, you know, I want stuff to back it up here. But just strictly being a better here people, you have to understand this is a bet you need to blindly make. Always like when you see this type of number with a backup quarterback. Yes. If this was a backup quarterback who was their first year in the NFL, I wouldn't be as confident about this. We talked about he's played games, right? I know he's one in three his career, but he's played in games, he's faced NFL competition for now, I know this is his first playoff start, which is an ideal, but it's like, okay, this is a guy that's been in Sean Payton's offense now for two years. You expect him to be comfortable enough to make plays against a Patriots defense that yes, they are good, right? They've had good turnovers these last two games. I really think the Chargers and Houston, they are both in my rankings in the bottom 30 of offensive lines. Denver Broncos number two. This is Night and day between what you can do scheme wise and you know, New England's defense looked like world beaters. I mean, let's be honest here. They've had a lot of help with the weather and the, I mean just piss poor quarterback play which once again you could say it's all about the defense, but come on, CJ was so bad in that game. You can't just simply say that was defensive play. So Chad's going to love this one. We got burned earlier in the playoffs, fading the Carolina Panthers at a nine point dog at home.
- [24:01]
Chad Norman
Yeah.
- [24:02]
Simon Hunter
If the line closes at anything above three and a half for this Broncos team or four, I should say in the last 50 years in the playoffs, dogs of four points or more at home in the playoffs, nine zero against the spread. They just don't lose. So we've seen it, right? The public has overreacted. This number opened at three, three and a half, immediately got steamed to four, immediately got seen to four and a half. Now it's at five and a half at a couple different books. So you Know, I, I, again, I'm trying to be patient here, but every bookmaker I know is going to be calling me up, begging me to bet Broncos form because it's just going to be all Patriots money. They're just going to be hammering it. And, you know, I, I usually go and roll over my tickets. I've just been letting my Patriots money sit out there because I'm gonna go to those books and just take all that money, roll it over in this Broncos team. That's again, this is probably my biggest bet of the playoffs. I thought New England was going to be. I just cannot believe this number's grown to five and a half chat at this point.
- [24:57]
Chad Norman
Well, listen, I'm inspired and I was with you. It just seemed like too much of an overreaction. The evidence we need lies in a man named Nick Foles, who had a glorious tweet supporting the Broncos and their fans about what is possible when a backup comes in. Obviously, he had a little bit more of a run at the end of that Eagle season, which you're aware of, but they still went through the playoffs as pretty big underdogs. And I remember this very clearly. We had just launched action in January of 2018 in the middle of those playoffs, and we rode the Eagles all the way through the super bowl saying, take the Eagles at five and a half. Take the Eagles at five and a half. So is Jared Stadium, Nick Foles, we have no idea. But, but it's a pretty good example of what can happen. He has been an NFL quarterback and don't forget Jared Stidham thought he was good enough that when they drafted Bo Nix and immediately named him the starter, he was really pissed. Like he is not a guy who's thinking, I'm coming in and I'm going to be a placeholder. Like maybe say, Ben Denucci, who was analyzing the game, I think for ESPN and then tweeted about the Broncos. And then all of a sudden now he's a backup for the Broncos playing in the AFC title game. Like you're seeing Matt Mitchell if you're watching the video on YouTube, he's throwing up the tweets from Nick Foles and Ben Denucci. But wow, what a game. I'm with you 100. We are, we are totally aligned.
- [26:37]
Simon Hunter
And, and people asking, is there easy, even worth betting the the super bowl future? Because again, I love the number enough. That's gonna be my biggest bet. Obviously, it's really just about Sean Payton. Sean Payne is actually really good as a dog in his career. He's 12 and 10 straight up when he's listed as a home underdog in any game in his life. So basically if you bet 100 bucks since he started being a home dog, you'll be up $744. I mean even this season he's 2, 0 straight up as a home dog. He beat the packers and the Chiefs. Thank you, Evan Abrams. That was a great, great pull. And you know, just looking at all these matchups, it's like, okay, there has to be some negatives, right? And there is, right. The first one that jumped out to me was okay, what the Broncos did just play an overtime game, which again we're going to get to the Rams game obviously. But the stat that's going to jump right away is what one we always talk about. It's really tough to play playoff games. And when you add in the overtime, just the wear and tear that is that extra quarter on guys bodies. You hear explairers talk about it. It's brutal because you've already played 18, 19 weeks of football. Now you're playing an extra quarter on top of that, another game. And it just adds up because it's usually a short week for some of these teams, right? But luckily for this Broncos team, they did play on the Saturday. But I'll just go the stead anyway. Since 2015, teams off a buy, I mean off and off an overtime game facing teams that did not play an overtime game, they are 10 and 18 straight up 11 and 17 against the spread. So you know, plays into what people think here, which is it's really tough to play after a playoff game. Another amazing staff from Evan Abrams in the playoffs when a team wins a playoff game and now they're in the next round of a playoff game, they're 05 straight up 1 and 4 against the spread since 2015, losing by 15 points per game. So I'm not saying it's up. It's not gonna be an uphill battle. Right. Both these teams.
- [28:30]
Chad Norman
Wait, what's the context for that stat you just gave me? I feel like I didn't hear it.
- [28:35]
Simon Hunter
The context is if you're, if you play an overtime game, then you have another playoff game the next game.
- [28:39]
Chad Norman
Got it.
- [28:39]
Simon Hunter
The historical fact is they're 0 and 5 straight up a 104 since 2015. And you know, if you want to go back even further, which thank Luckily Evan did 2000. Since 2002 teams are just 6 and 13 straight up in the playoffs in this exact spot. So it's really hard. It's really hard to really get that far about Denver. That's why it's like don't you don't have to take the money line. The straight up number is so tough. Just just take that future on the super bowl Future at 13 1. But to me the number that's the key here. I'm really wanting to get people hammering this five and a half number. I think that's that's the key is the Patriots could win. Right. Drake May has been perfect this season. Not lost the road game this year he's eight no straight up. Can they steal it White get a feel at the end of the game. Neither of us would be shocked but to me that's where we talk about the lines move too much. Three and a half is right for this game. Five and a half. You're getting two free points here and I again I can't tell you how excited I was to see this one. So yeah this is I love Bennett. And then as soon as I saw those trends from Evan which I gave at the top of the show that +4 dog 90 this last 50 years it's like oh my God, this is just lining up the the public is going to get absolutely crushed on this one because they're just going to keep hitting this Patriots.
- [29:51]
Chad Norman
Yes.
- [29:51]
Simon Hunter
I'm giving out time. It says just in case the pros do come in and bet this down below four but you know five and a half that just feels like a gift.
- [29:59]
Chad Norman
Do we have opinion on the total 42 at Hard Rock 41 and a half other places. You know the Broncos had a little The Broncos were 10 and 8 to the end of this year. They had a stretch where they were just giving up loads of points in the fourth quarter and it's one of the reasons why we liked ultimately like the over after some back and forth waffling this past weekend because they do give up points in the fourth quarter when they have those moments. I feel like that's not likely to happen in this game. The Patriots were what were they hold on. 12 and 7 to the under. One of those unders was the last game of the season against the Chargers when no one was playing for the Chargers. So do we have a feeling on the under here?
- [30:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm honestly lean towards the over. I'll be patient though. Another thing where I'm not going to rush to bet it here on a Tuesday for a Sunday game and an atmosphere Denver that we have no idea that what the weather could be. I mean I don't know about you, Chad, but people are going crazy on my look later. We might get the once in a lifetime blizzard on Sunday. So I don't know how that affects the rest of the country on Saturday or Sunday or what's gonna be going on in Colorado obviously. But for this one, it's just like I said last week, if it, if they show Denver and you see it's sunny, 35 degrees out with barely any wind, you play the over like it's just whatever that is. It's usually a track meet in Denver when it's a nice cool glare like that. And both these quarterbacks I think could turn the ball over like watching Sedham's tape. He does make great throws, high risk type of thrower. He will try to take that risky play. We'll see if Sean Payton beat that out of him these last two years. But a lot of these guys are what they are and as, as good as I think he is as a downfield thrower, he does like to take higher risk. So I already gave you those Drake Mace stats. He's been highly turnover prone. Now going off, going up against once again a really good defensive line. The flip side, you know, Stenum's first star. We've seen New England be really great at turning teams over. Right now you expect a lot of short field. So you know, to me, early bets I see coming on the over, I could see professionals coming on the over here, but I could see that the public shooting towards the under just because they're like, well, backup quarterback too good defense, pretty low scoring. But yeah, right now my inclination is it could go the other way. It could be a high scoring type of game.
- [32:17]
Chad Norman
Well, look, we wanted to mention a couple player props from this game. You just mentioned turnovers, Jared Stidham, interceptions. We don't have to give an opinion on this yet. His over under is going to be set at half. Drake may passing touchdowns. The overrunner is going to be set at one and a half in the contest. Let's do a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Florida's sportsbook. I've been using it a bunch these past couple of days. These playoffs have been crazy so far and the best way to cash in on those unexpected moments is with Hard Rock bet. This weekend, two teams will punch their tickets to the big game. Which means we've got two huge games perfect for building same game part lays. And if you miss kickoff, don't worry, Hard Rock bed has live in game betting so you're never too late to get to the action, find a winner or grab the player prop you missed before kickoff. You can even live bet between snaps in just a few easy taps. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra 150. $50 in bonus bets between same game parlays, live betting, a can't miss welcome offer and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long, so download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. Viewers, somebody you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia if you're.
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- [34:48]
Chad Norman
The next game. NFC Conference Title game Rams at Seahawks the number's two and a half. The total's 47 and a half. Pretty much locked in at two and a half since Sunday night. A little bit of money coming in at Hard Rock because it's at minus 122 and a half, minus 120. So we're seeing money coming in on the Seahawks. Simon, we've got a couple interesting comps here and I want to run through sort of the circumstances for each of the games that these two teams have played. They split the division series, so this is the third time they're playing this year. I really want to bet the Rams, and I feel like I'm visualizing and imagining the Rams at their peak. And too often this year the Rams have Brain farts. Like, they have these moments where Matthew Stafford is missing and Sean McVay is playing either conservatively or not aggressive enough or making bad play calls. He's admitted he wasn't making great calls on Sunday night. Anyone who watched that game saw they dominated when they ran the ball, they struggled when they were trying to pass the ball, and he could not get his team to commit to the run. So am I wrong for wanting to commit to the Rams here?
- [36:07]
Simon Hunter
Simon says. No, I, I'm with you. I'm like, I, I, I says, presented.
- [36:12]
Chad Norman
By Hard Rock back.
- [36:14]
Simon Hunter
Emilia was going to absolutely hammer this Seahawks team just because the Rams, like, you've said it, the bar is just set so high. I think you're at the same level as me where I've set the bar so high that it's tough for them to even live up to that bar. And every week they've kind of fallen short of that bar. Yeah, you know, they're also, this is the first time ever a team has not covered in the wild card round, the divisional round, and are still alive here in the, in the conference championship. So this Rams team, as much grief as you want to get them, it's, it's hard to want to go against them because they've just, they figure out a way, they find a way to win these games. And the regular season, they kept finding ways to blow games. So I give them respect. Like that Panthers game. Easy could have lost that game, your Bears game. They tried. Oh, my God, did they try? Like, gave Caleb the chance to, to end him at the end there.
- [37:10]
Chad Norman
Oh, my God, did I try.
- [37:13]
Simon Hunter
The defense found a way to get the turnover, so just gonna pass by.
- [37:16]
Chad Norman
My tick tock trend shout out. Okay, that's fine.
- [37:19]
Simon Hunter
I don't, I mean, I'm a grown man. I don't have tick tock. I'm sorry, buddy.
- [37:22]
Chad Norman
Well, all I've done For the past 12 hours is watch Indiana tick tock practically in tears when, like, they've got Fernando Mendoza's touchdown run set to like a prayer from Madonna. And at the end, you see his mom in the wheelchair, like, crying hysterically and the dad who won't stand and cheer out of respect not being able to stand and cheer, and they're hugging and crying and then I'm crying and then I send it to my friends, I send it to Andy and Matt, and I'm like, you guys are not going to be able to not cry at the end of this. So, yeah, I have TikTok because it keeps me Engaged with my community again.
- [37:56]
Simon Hunter
I'm just. I got cold on my heart every time they showed her with those. I think they had the kids mic'd up for the game. Chad, obviously you missed it because you were there and I was just like, my God, espn, because I told you I hate the college way college football does. We're like, Gus Johnson thing. That kid was living in a car last week. Now he's scoring a touchdown. They always have to try to make you cry. I hate it. They always try to get you in college.
- [38:18]
Chad Norman
Listen, I put you on a bad path. I apologize. You were, you were about to tell me why we're not betting the Rams, which even though I want to, when I know it's the wrong play, I'm.
- [38:27]
Simon Hunter
Right there with you, Chad. Like when you said that, that was my initial thought to you because it's. I think you're the same thought as me. It's that it's same as the Broncos. Who, who is not going to be hammering the Seahawks team, betting the Rams? Nobody. Like I said, they've not covered. Now last two weeks, they haven't looked right in, I don't know, eight weeks. Like you've said. Like, they just, they kind of puttered it out here at the end and it's like, well, they've had a brutal run. This will be their fourth straight road game. Like, that's just. I know Arizona shouldn't count because it was before the playoffs, but it's like, that's still a road game. They still had to go on the road. That's nothing to poo poo about. Like, that's, that's really hard. Like I said, after 18 games already, you know, 18 weeks, I should say, now they have another three straight road games and this one, you know, just again, let's just go off the lazy stats. An extra day of rest. Like, could that even matter that much, Chad? Yes. That's what I'm trying to beat into people's heads here. How worn out all these players are. Just an extra day of rest or a rest advantage team in the conference championship, 27 and 17 straight up. If the team's at home with the rest advantage, 21 and 7. So that. 21 and 7 straight up. So that, that goes for the Seahawks and Denver. Like, both of them already at an advantage just being at home in this exact spot. And you know, the more I try to go into it, the more I'm trying to find the reasons to bet this Rams team. It just. Can we talk about the injuries right they might be down to number one and number two quarterbacks, which, yeah, I don't know if Sam Donald can exploit, but I definitely saw it. The, the way the Bears explained it was they could not tackle. I think they had 20 broken tackles in that game against the Rams, which is by far the most the Rams had given up all season. Like that's just not the type of defense they run. Usually they're very well coached, well tackled team. But you've seen when these backup cornerbacks are coming in, you know, they don't want to lay the thump on these running backs. Right. They're, they're cover corners. There's a reason they're not starters. Not, not only because they're not great at covering, but sometimes not great tacklers. I mean, how many times did your running backs break tackles? And now, you know, obviously huge blow to the Seahawks. They lost Charbonnet, which, yeah, you know, if you haven't been following the Seahawks this year, I know you might look at stats, you're like, well, he's not been that impressive. He has as this rare ability to find the end zone in the, in the red zone. Like he just always would find the end zone. And that was the big reason they'd use it so much down there was those tough yards he'd always fight through. It was just a different style of running. And you know, now they're down to still a great running back, but it was a big deal, right. They had a two headed horse that they've leaned on these last couple weeks. I mean Stafford, that's Stafford. Darnold's probably thrown for 300 yards in 10 weeks. Like they've just totally leaned into the run game and this defense then this season here and it's carried them. So looking at this matchup, you know, as bad as Darnold's injury is, I think what we saw, we talked about it last week, you have to get 12 completions for and 17 pass attempts. They were able to hide it, right. That, that, that game totally went their way. This game they won't be able to, but it's another re, another week of rest on that oblique. Like I think that is going to help him. And obviously, you know, I think Shahan sold him out. Like talking about him getting shot up. They'll do the same thing here, right? They'll shoot him up. He won't be able to field anyway. And you know, all these numbers I keep going through with this Rams team, can they win this game? Yes. We've talked about, they've it's really hard to in your division playing the same team three times. And you know this, this is going to be the toughest matchup the Seahawks have faced. But I feel like it's too much overcome. Chad. All the road games, all the injuries, it's just eventually going to pop up on this Rams team. So I'm interested to see what the pros are going to do with this number. Like, I already know the pros are going to be with me on the Broncos. I really am interested what they're going to do with this one, because to me, you saw 10, maybe 11 of the 20 books here in Jersey, hit three, and then some group came in and hammered the Rams because every book went right back to two and a half. So I, I can't wait to find out more by the time we get to Thursday, show what's going on. That one. But right away, I, I, I know it's, it's boring. It's trucky. But I like both the home teams. I like the break. Broncos like the Seahawks, especially Seahawks at two and a half. But I'm just being patient with this one because it's, if there's that much resistance of the three, maybe we get back to the one and a half, which is what this number opened out with the Seahawks. So it's a number. Another number I'm gonna be patient on, see if it does come down, see what the professionals do in this one. But I, I mean, everyone's gonna see these trends I've talked about. Everyone's gonna see these trends against the Rams. It's just, it's a brutal, brutal schedule for them to overcome and talk about the NFL. I know they don't care. They're just trying to get the TV product. But to have the Rams play Sunday night and then an overtime game, I mean, that's just so brutal. Now they have to go on the road and play a Seahawks team that basically rested all their starters in the fourth quarter. So they haven't really played a full four quarters in three weeks. It's just, it feels like it's too much, Chad. So, yeah, it's. People can say I really love this one, but I really, I really am interested to see where this number goes.
- [43:23]
Chad Norman
Look, there's a lot of comps from those two games where the Rams really did outplay them in, in a significant, significant way. I'm with you, though. That's why I haven't pulled the trigger. Like, I want to be on the Rams, but I, Part of me was waiting to see if we can get to a solid three. And also part of me feels like it's a little bit off because I'm imagining something that might not be there in a consistent way. So I appreciate you talking me down a little bit here. I have not and I'll give a.
- [43:55]
Simon Hunter
Snap from Evan just. Just talking about these road teams. So it's our third consecutive road game in the playoffs. So teams in this exact spot, this in the regular shoes, even the playoffs, they're 48 and 79 straight up, so 37, which is what you're looking at success rate or win rate for the Rams here. When the team is listed as an underdog, which is what the Rams are. They are 22 and 67 straight up. So even worse, 24 when we're in the playoffs. It's the third straight road game in the playoffs. Those teams 12 and 30 straight up, so 28. That is nine and 28 straight up. So 24 when they're listed as an underdog, like it just. You blindly got to bet the Seahawks here. Like it's just all the numbers back up. Exactly. We're talking about the rest. Disparity is too much. And you know, I think Chad, you thought, you know, at the top where I think it's because I'm the same way where I had the ramp power rated so high coming into the. I think that was week 12 or week 13. Right? Yeah. Everyone else, it's really come way back down. And after last week with the Seahawks and that performance for their defense, I did bump them up to be the number one team. Right. And it reflected. I think the books have them as Maybe is a plus 100 or plus 110 Super bowl favorite right now, which makes total sense. Like of all the teams left, they are by far the most complete team despite all the questions, the quarterback position. So, yeah, it's. It's crazy to think I'm talking about a Stenum versus Darnold super bowl here, but I think that's what we're looking at here, brother.
- [45:28]
Chad Norman
All right. We'll get more into the total. I want to dig in a little bit more on that, that comps from those two games and see if anything sort of moves us aggressively.
- [45:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I was looking for the under again. You said we'll talk more about it. I. I just like the other total. I have no early play here in the week. I just. I'm betting both sides early here. But on the total for me, I'm not rushing about it.
- [45:49]
Chad Norman
Player props Jackson Smith and Jigba total touchdowns over under a half. Matthew Stafford longest completion will be over under 39 and a half. Those will be in the contest. Listen, we got three games left in the season. Indiana University are the national champions in college football. It has been a wild January. I got to get back to a little bit of a normal life. Appreciate everyone coming along for the ride. I appreciate Hard Rock Bet hooking me up with some duckets for a glorious, glorious experience here in Miami. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast network. We will be back on Thursday. We'll nail down the picks. We'll get to some brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video? Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [46:56]
Simon Hunter
The road to the super bowl is like a mythic quest. It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes. This is an iHeart podcast.
- [47:12]
Chad Norman
Guaranteed Human.