The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square – NFL Divisional Weekend Reactions

Episode Date: January 19, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: The Volume Podcast Network

Episode Overview

On this episode of Sharp or Square, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter react to a wild NFL Divisional Playoff weekend, dissecting key matchups: Rams-Bears, Texans-Patriots, Broncos-Bills, and Niners-Seahawks. They break down betting angles, emotional swings (especially for Bears and Bills fans), and the impact of coaching and quarterback play in the playoff gauntlet. The conversation is authentic and passionate, with betting wisdom, hard truths, and some literary flair.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Seahawks vs. 49ers

• Segment Start: [03:42]
• Bets: Seattle -7.5, Under 45.5
• Discussion:
  • Chad thought the game would be either a Seahawks blowout (due to Niners injuries) or a tight, low-scoring affair.
  • The game turned into a Seahawks domination, aided by multiple 49ers mistakes: kick return TD, fumble, pick-six.
  • Simon: "Seattle defense was so dominant. Every possession was on a short field... They're looking like the best team in football right now." [06:10]
  • Both hosts lamented missed opportunities and turnovers.
  • Notable Moment: Game never offered a backdoor for Niners bettors. The numbers were right, but the game script killed them.

2. Patriots vs. Texans

• Segment Start: [08:20]
• Bets: Patriots -3.5 (Win), Under 40.5 (Loss)
• Discussion:
  • Wild game defined by eight turnovers.
  • New England defense dominated, though their offense was unspectacular.
  • Chad: "If not for the turnovers, I don't even know if there were 30 points in this game." [09:46]
  • Simon: "Can we not give a ton of props to Drake May? Three touchdown passes against that defense... But he was stupid too with the ball... just holding on to the ball for too long." [10:06]
  • CJ Stroud looked lost: "In his last seven pass attempts he had thrown three picks. It was just a total anomaly." [11:08]
  • Both marvel at how quickly teams can turn around with a new coach and young QB.

3. Broncos vs. Bills

• Segment Start: [12:26]
• Bets: Leaned Broncos +1.5, Over (didn't officially play the over, to their regret)
• Discussion:
  • Bo Nix’s heroics, injury, and the high drama of Allen’s failed comeback.
  • Chad: "If I’m the Bills... I’m giving up whatever it takes to get the Steelers to let me have Mike Tomlin.” [13:40]
  • Simon: "The first step is... firing Sean McDermott. If you had an owner with a pulse as a Bills, he never would have got off that plane.” [14:17]
  • The injury to Bo Nix and last-minute heartbreak for Bills fans got significant attention.
  • Questioned the coaching decisions (e.g., end-of-half management) and how the Bills failed Josh Allen.
  • Discussion on the randomness of playoff results.
  • Chad (on officiating): "If anyone thinks the NFL is rigged... the NFL would have made sure that Josh Allen... would make sure that he gets to the AFC title game instead of Jarrett Stidham.” [17:10]
  • Simon: “At the end of the day... you cannot blame Josh Allen. They have to fire this head coach. I can’t believe he still has a job.” [18:18]

4. Rams vs. Bears

• Segment Start: [21:38]
• Bets: Rams -4.5, First Half Under (Winner)
• Discussion:
  • Chad as a Bears fan: Emotional retelling of Caleb Williams’ remarkable 4th-and-4 TD: “Did we get Patrick Mahomes? Did we get Michael Jordan? Did we get Josh Allen?” [02:34]
  • Chaos defines the Bears’ playoff run; defense played a Super Bowl-caliber game.
  • Bears’ future is bright with Ben Johnson as coach and Caleb Williams at QB, but they need to find consistency.
  • Simon: “Brisker... just incredible safety play. McVay and Stafford acted like they’d never seen a corner blitz.” [23:18]
  • Rams outlasted the Bears in OT after a Caleb Williams INT, shattering cover dreams and Bears hearts.
  • Chad: “Is it worth it to lose the bet, to have seen something like that [4th-and-4 Hail Mary]? Never seen.” [26:51]
  • Simon: “He’s got that same type of ability: that Rodgers/Mahomes type. So much raw talent and power in the arm, and that’s why you love the guy.” [27:15]
  • Discussed the pain of losing with style to “once-in-a-generation” plays that ultimately don’t matter for the result.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad (on the Bears heartbreak):

  • “Did we get Patrick Mahomes? Did we get Michael Jordan? Did we get Josh Allen?” [02:34]
  • “Is it worth it to lose the bet, to having seen something like that?” [26:51]

• Simon (on coaching and quarterbacks):

  • “The first step is... firing Sean McDermott. If you had an owner with a pulse as a Bills, he never would have got off that plane.” [14:17]
  • “He’s got that same type of ability, that Rodgers/Mahomes type. So much raw talent and power in the arm, and that’s why you love the guy.” [27:15]

• Chad (on NFL rigging conspiracy):

  • “If anyone thinks the NFL is rigged, then the NFL would have made sure that Josh Allen ... would get to the AFC title game instead of Jarrett Stidham.” [17:10]

• Literary Moment:

  • Matt Mitchell’s annual Dostoevsky quote: “I exist in thousands of agonies... if I don’t see the sun, I know it’s there. And there’s a whole life in that, in knowing the sun is there.” [22:00]

Segment Timestamps

| Segment | Content | Timestamp | |-------------------|-------------------------------------------|----------------| | Seahawks-49ers | Betting/Analysis (Seattle blowout) | 03:42 – 07:25 | | Patriots-Texans | Turnovers, Defensive dominance | 08:20 – 12:26 | | Broncos-Bills | Allen heartbreak, Bo Nix, coaching hot seat| 12:26 – 19:28 | | Rams-Bears | Caleb Williams magic, heartbreak, defense | 21:38 – 28:01 | | Dostoevsky Quote | Annual fan commiseration | 22:00 | | CJ Stroud Future | Texans QB debate for 2026 and beyond | 34:21 – 36:42 | | Betting Recap | Rapid-fire picks, record, contest talk | 36:42 – 38:01 | | Next Episode | Teaser, early lines for Championships | 38:01 – 39:23 |

Final Betting Recap

• Simon says: Denver +1.5
• Sharp vs Square: Patriots -3.5 (win), Rams/Chicago first half under (win), Seattle/SF under (loss), New England/Houston under (loss), Rams -4.5 (loss)

Tone & Style

• Conversational, passionate, occasionally irreverent and literary.
• Both hosts combine deep betting insight with real-fan heartbreak and humor.

Closing Thoughts

This episode of Sharp or Square offered a real-time lens into the agony and ecstasy of NFL playoff betting—adrenaline-charged results, wild quarterback play, coaching critiques, and the unending search for sharper angles. The heartbreaks were plentiful, but so were the lessons for next week’s wagers, with more sharp/square matchups and betting breakdowns to come.