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Sharp or Square - NFL DRAFT ANALYSIS Part 2: AFC Draft Board Recap
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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human and now superhuman shack.
- [00:07]
Sleep Apnea PSA Voice
I keep telling them not to say that. I'm no superhuman. Believe it or not, I struggle with moderate obstructive sleep apnea or OSA in adults with obesity. Moderate to severe OSA is a condition where breathing is interrupted during sleep with loud snoring, choking, gasping for air, and even daytime fatigue. Let's just say it could sound a lot like this. Sound familiar? Learn more@don'tsleeponosa.com this information is provided by
- [00:33]
Chad Millman
Lilly, a medicine company.
- [00:35]
Sponsor Announcer (Lilly, Public, Taco Bell)
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures this
- [01:36]
Daniel Cormier
is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. Power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either made the move or you missed a moment. That's why you need a network that's just as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in the action from the walkouts to the knockouts. Now that's a total power move. Make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless Store. Additional terms apply. See totalwireless.com for details.
- [02:11]
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- [02:38]
James Weaver
that happen along the way.
- [02:39]
Toyota Sponsor Announcer
Because when people are the destination, your ride is important. Learn more@toyota.com and find the vehicle that fits your people.
- [02:48]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are parked of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [03:13]
Simon Hunter
Hello Chad, my brother.
- [03:18]
Chad Millman
We're like still digging the NFL draft and we wanted to give all of our listeners as deep a breakdown as possible because now is a time. As I talked about on Tuesday when we did our NFC breakdown, there's a lot of people who are starting to think about dynasty drafts. There are defensive offensive rookie of the year odds being posted. There are some win totals that you might want to take advantage of now. So there's some real actionable stuff that comes out of this analysis. Like we know it's a a betting driven show and draft analysis draft recaps. To me, they're kind of fucking idiotic given grades and all that bullshit. Like nobody knows for three to five years what really is true. But today we got a special treat. We're doing the afc. We're doing it with a special guest from Sports Info Solutions. And for people who don't know what Sports Info Solutions is, they are sort of the secret sauce behind so much of the data that you see on places like espn. When we launched action, we had a deal with Sports Info Solutions. When that deal was up, all I did was get emails from people on our team who are building models saying we got to renew with Sports Info Solutions. They are a treasure chest reservoir massive amounts of data across football, baseball, basketball and they provide a lot of narrative research driven content to places like espn, et cetera. Today one of their researchers, James Weaver, is joining us on the show. Welcome in. James Weaver from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the other side of the state in the battle of Pennsylvania. He's not wearing a pen shirt just to troll you, Simon.
- [05:21]
James Weaver
I wish I got the memo that we might have a battle on this podcast, but no. Chad, Simon, thank you for having me on. It's a pleasure. Hopefully after this airs, the Penguins will have come back and won the series, but we'll see long uproad climb to go.
- [05:38]
Chad Millman
All right, so listen, I've said this before, I just said it again. We don't know how these drafts are going to pan out. Like for example in 2021. Many outlets gave the New York jets an A or A minus for the draft, which ended up being a disaster for GM Joe Douglas. He traded Sam Darnold, drafted Zach Wilson number two overall. He traded two third rounders to take a USC tackle. They convert to guard. He drafted two different guys named Michael Carter. The jets averaged six win the next three seasons than they fired Douglas. Right. That draft also included Elijah Moore who didn't want to play for the Jets. Like it was a truly, truly epic failure of a draft in 2015. The Tennessee Titans a minus by many outlets unfortunately Marx Mariota was the number two overall pick. That was a terrible draft for them. Dorial Green Beckham panned out to be nothing. List goes on and on and on. So there is some actionable stuff. Anybody who follows the NFL follows what Sports Info Solutions has in terms of value. So what James is going to bring today is a very thoughtful perspective that a lot of people in the league graded these players the same way Sports Info Solutions does because they're getting it from Sports Info Solutions. So James, thanks for coming on. Let's talk about the Ravens. Like this was a team that seemed to draft in very much in terms of need. As we get going, you've got some thoughts on how they got some value. Let's talk about it.
- [07:16]
James Weaver
Yeah, I mean for starters, drafting Vega Ione in the first round. He is a prospect that's as sure fire as you can find the highest floor possible on an offensive lineman. He's got the size, he's got good athleticism. As a Penn Stater myself, got a little extra eyes on him and having him see see him line up in the slot, come crashing across the side on motions and things like that to take out backside blockers. He's got that toughness, that tenacity where he'll finish blocks and he's a Mauler. He was a great selection there for the Ravens, exactly what they needed to shore up their offensive line as well. They also drafted Jacoby Lane, the receiver out of USC. Got him at a good value. On our SIS site we had him ranked as our 57th highest prospect and they got him at pick 80. I guess to give a little bit of background of our NFL draft site, we have Our full time scouting department that watches this year over 400 players, 400 potential prospects to be drafted. We have our grading system for all across all positions where we have, yeah, all of our scouts watching film, breaking down these players and putting number grades to them, not necessarily round grades. And then we have all of those players ranked down from an overall prospect. So, yeah, Jacoby Lane, good pick there and good value. One player specifically that I wanted to highlight is Chandler Rivers, cornerback out of Duke. We had him ranked as our 71st overall prospect and he was the 162nd pick overall in the draft. He's a naturally reactive athlete. Quick change of, change of direction ability and has good, good instincts on the back end as well. We believe he has a good shot to take over that third corner spot. In a Ravens defense that's got Marlon Humphrey getting a little bit older and Nate Wiggins sitting there as well, who they drafted from Clemson a few years ago. So you're sitting there and you've got a guy who can get potential action in the secondary and you know, all it takes, you know, for defensive rookie of the year type thing is getting that production, getting, you know, four or five interceptions and you got a player all of a sudden that's, that's in the race. So also on a Ravens defense, it's projected to do pretty well and on a team that's projected or I guess across the sports books to be the top, top super bowl contender again. So we like the fit there for Rivers and yeah, he's one of our prospects that went a little bit later that could make an overall impact day
- [09:46]
Chad Millman
one, long shot, rookie of the year odds right there. That could be an interesting one. Simon. I thought the Ravens just did exactly what the Ravens should do and it was indication to me of why we don't care about Harbaugh going to the Giants because this team is built by the organization, not by the coach.
- [10:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And the type of team that did not make sense why they gave up two first round picks for the end, unless that the end is Michael Parsons. It made sense, but we love Crosby. It just didn't make sense. The move didn't. So to me, if I'm a fan of this team, we got those draft picks back, used one this year for an important thing we needed. Right. An offensive guard. I would be over the moon. So, yeah, the Ravens, once again, it just didn't make sense. They're such a great drafting team.
- [10:28]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [10:29]
Simon Hunter
I just didn't get why they gave up those first round picks. And yeah, like we Said it all worked out that would from again they added a great player but now you also have your draft picks. You already added that great player in your DN and it's just it was such a better thing to work out for this Ravens team. The fact that yeah, it was a bad look, right? A really bad look. What happened the next Crosby trade. But just during the draft when their name popped up, it's like I can't believe they, they had given up this pick. So you know, looking at this draft class, they couldn't miss, right. As long as they got an offensive tackler guard in that first round. I think that was going to be the play for this team and they did it. So yeah, great draft for this Ravens team.
- [11:05]
Chad Millman
Buffalo Bills. Matt Mitchell's favorite team, the pride of Western New York, Simon. I'm excited for the Bills to have a new coach. I'm excited for them to have drafted for need. That defense is kind of a train wreck. They don't have receivers. They're keeping Keon Coleman. They will not get rid of him. All new situation there. Will Matt Mitchell this fall be insufferable because the Bills are a train wreck and continuing to disappoint him or will be he be insufferable because the Bills are so good? We can't stop hearing about it.
- [11:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm right there with you. It's like great attack the defense on the draft and exactly what they did and you know, it's a team that we've seen it, right? It, it's the. You don't need a big name receiver. It'd be great to have one for Josh, but to not have to use that equity in the draft and just keep attacking that defense which your weakness is the pass rush, right? If, if you had guys on the edge, a dominant person on the edge, it would totally change that defense that has a couple holes and a couple guys have just aged out, right? Chad, A lot of their great players they've had over these last five, six seasons, they just can't stay on the field, can't stay healthy. So they've paid a lot of those guys. So now they, they really need to get hit in the draft and you know, their first pick of the second round seems like a great steal in that at that position. So yeah, I'd be pretty happy if I was a Bills fan.
- [12:34]
Chad Millman
James, you got a lot of love for some of the guys in this draft.
- [12:37]
James Weaver
Yeah, I think the Bills did very well not only with their first selection there with TJ Parker, but Also later on in the draft too. First off, talk a little bit about TJ Parker. Very high motor guy that can set the edge well. Needs a little bit of refinement in his pass rushing ability. Building out a little bit more of a repertoire, but sitting behind a guy like Bradley Chuba or Greg Russo who's kind of been there, done that. Like you mentioned, Simon, these older guys that they have, he should be able to develop that quite well and down the road a little bit. I know you mentioned a big time receiver. They don't have to use the equity, but we're really high on this. Skyler Bell from UConn, we had him ranked as our 58th highest prospect. They got him in the fourth round with pick 125. This is a guy with great route running ability, good separation and had a really high productive last year at UConn in an offense that spread it out and really got the ball around. So that's a good option there to kind of work with Kalushik here and work on that other side of DJ more now who the Bills brought in. So those two guys are very, very solid picks. And then two others I want to touch on real quick. Jalen Kilgore, the safety from South Carolina, we have him ranked at 78th and they got him at pick 167. He's long, versatile, good range, ball skill, guy that they can deploy both at safety and at nickel. And then Zane Durant, the defensive tackle from Penn State, a little bit on the smaller side, but his athletic abilities through the roof. Explosive first step and good initial punch. So a little bit of a value there for him as well.
- [14:08]
Chad Millman
I cannot wait until we get to the Jacksonville Jaguars and you talk about the value from their draft because that is all anyone's been talking about is how pathetic it is. But first, another pathetic team, the Cincinnati Bengals, who gave up their first round pick to get Dexter Lawrence from the New York Football Giants. They still tried to rebuild the defensive line and the defensive side of the ball early in the draft. First two picks, Cassius Howell, Texas A and M edge rusher, and then Takario Davis from Washington, the cornerback. James. Did Sis feel like the Bengals did themselves well in this draft when they are historically so bad at making picks like this?
- [14:54]
James Weaver
You know, I think overall they did pretty solid. Cassius Howe was selected about right where he should have went. Actually they did get a couple picks of value there. We had him ranked at 36, they drafted him at 41st, but you know, at that kind of thing, that's that's where it is. How's a decent value? He can over pursue a little bit when setting the edge, but he's got good pass rush ability. Someone that they can develop with Shemar Stewart they drafted last year.
- [15:20]
Chad Millman
Hold on, hold on. Shemar Stewart's already a bust. There's nothing to develop there. He was a bust before the Bengals drafted him. There's not going to be any more upside for Shemar Stewart. The answer is Howell is the guy they're hoping Shemar Stewart would have been.
- [15:39]
James Weaver
Yeah, that's fair. That's fair. I mean, I don't know if you bring in Dexter Lawrence who can just about do it all if that helps any defensive lineman whatsoever on that. On that team. But I'm sure neither of those guys would have been as good as Trey Hendrickson. So that's, that's one thing for sure.
- [15:56]
Chad Millman
James is getting a taste of how I feel about Shemar Stewart and the Cincinnati Bengals. James, I'm being. I'm very. I'm being very rude. Go ahead. I don't mean to interrupt you. Oh, hey. I mean that's Shamar Stewart. It just gets my go.
- [16:08]
James Weaver
Hey, that's fine as a Steelers guy. I'll take it. I'll take it. We just got to worry about the offensive side of the ball and not allowing 50 million points from a hopefully, I guess. Yeah, hopefully healthy Joe Burrow offense you like to see out there and carve out benefit defenses. But yeah, and then Cardio Davis pick, we had him ranked actually way further down at 182, so maybe a bit of a reach there, decent corner, but nothing, nothing too much to brag about. If he turns out something in camp, it'd be something like a project over the summer, but nothing. That's too, too remarkably crazy to talk about there.
- [16:43]
Chad Millman
Simon, can we talk about the Cleveland Browns? Because when me and you and Derrick Brown recapped the whole draft just sort of looking at highlights, the Browns for the second in a row have consistently come up in terms of the value they added and the spots they filled. Last year, Great on the offensive side of the ball. Great on the defensive side of the ball. This year they did it again. What are we supposed to do here?
- [17:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's tricky, Chad. It's like we said, it's all we're value based in what we do here. And I just. Anytime a team has a draft like they just had the year before and a year that they did this year, I don't care who the quarterback is. I have to bet Them. It's just, it's just the way I am. Like, I just think the draft is such a cheat code now that if you hit on two or three guys and you already have a pretty good team, it's. It just changes everything. So the fact that Sean Watson is back playing well for them in practices, it's just set the template, right? And the, you know, everyone you can listen to and read, right? People that do their whole lives is draft grades and dive into these different players. They're going berserk about how good Cleveland did. Right? And that's. If that's just. That's exactly where you want to be, right? When you're a joke organization, you're an organization. That was it 30 years, Chad. They haven't won the division. 40 years. I don't even know. It's so absurd. The number. This is how it starts, right? It doesn't start with the number one pick and taking the number one quarterback. I mean, we all wish it was that easy. But you need the team first, right? The team and then you have the quarterback. Hopefully that can come in. If they're just average. If you have a great team with an average quarterback that's a playoff team and potentially a division winning team like Pittsburgh didn't have a great quarterback last year to win this division, right? They just, they had good coach and they had good players around them and that's, that's usually what it takes, right? Staying healthy. So I just. Going through their draft, it's just you just always wait for them to make mistakes and it's like, okay, did they really need to take Spencer, the offensive tackle? No, but that's a great pick. Like that's a stud that could potentially be their tackle now for 10 to 15 years. And that's why I'm so excited about this team. It's like they don't force picks. Right now in Cleveland, they're taking the best available player on their draft board, which we've seen since I've been alive. The best teams, that's exactly what they do. They don't force picks. They just taste the. They take the best available. Whatever their weaknesses are, they address in free agency. So you have to start there. And you know, they're attacking the wide receiver position. I just love to see it, right. They're going, going offense, attacking them back to back wide receiver. I know we do. I not believe in Shador Sanders. Maybe they don't either. But someone there might believe in desean Watson. We might as well. And that's that's what this draft's showing to me. It's like they're, they're trying to up that offense because that defense is so dominant. So I like you can hear it in my voice. I'm just so excited for this Cleveland team and the value right now that they're displaying to have people that can bet them. You want to bet their win total. You want to divisionally, I think all the value is there right now for betting Cleveland.
- [19:45]
Chad Millman
Well, look, they actually don't have anybody from their starting offensive line who's coming back and their wide receiver room was one of the worst in the NFL last year. I don't think anyone had more than 650 yards. And you and I were direct victims of Jerry Judy drops last year in terms of bets we had made. So between Fano, Casey Concepcion, who they drafted in the first round, and then getting Denzel Boston from Washington, who a lot of people thought might be a first round draft pick as well, that's a haul. They had a total haul. So good for the Browns and now Superhuman Shack.
- [20:22]
Sleep Apnea PSA Voice
I keep telling them not to say that. I'm no superhuman. Believe it or not, I struggle with moderate obstructive sleep apnea or OSA in adults with obesity. Moderate to severe OSA is a condition where breathing is interrupted during sleep with loud snoring, choking, gasping for air and even daytime fatigue. Let's just say it can sound a lot like this. Sound familiar? Learn more@don'tsleeponosa.com this information is provided by
- [20:48]
Sponsor Announcer (Lilly, Public, Taco Bell)
Lilly, a medicine company. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S P500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors LLC the SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures from Sauce to Dust to Nuggets Diablo Dusted Crispy Chicken Nuggets no, they don't come in mild. That would make like zero sense with the name New Diablo Dusted Crispy Chicken Nuggets only at Taco bell at participating U.S. taco Bell locations for a limited time and while supplies last.
- [22:09]
Toyota Sponsor Announcer
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- [23:13]
Chad Millman
You mentioned something very important. Simon James I want to get your take on this. The quarterback has to stay healthy even if it's not the best quarterback in the league. He's got to stay healthy. The Denver Broncos in the playoffs last year. The second to last play of the game in overtime against the Buffalo Bills. Bo Nix breaks his ankle. Can't go into the AFC title game the Denver Broncos what did SIS think of their draft?
- [23:39]
James Weaver
Yeah, the Broncos didn't really have a lot of picks right. They only had their first pick in round three, so not too too much to report there. I think they had some picks late filling in some positions of not really need, but getting. Jonah Coleman was a good selection there. We had him at some value with rank 67 pick 108 was the play there. Obviously they do have a couple of the backs that are in Dobbins and Harvey, so adding him to the running back room. Sean Payton loves having a Million running backs to deploy in a million ways. Different, different, million different ways. So. And then yeah, just kind of solid positions, right? Defensive tackle Tyler Onyudin, a couple tight ends and Justin Jolly and Dalen Bentley. Nothing too, too crazy there. And again, when your first pick isn't until round three or four, it's just kind of taking some dart throws and seeing if any of these guys can make an impact immediately as a backup. And if there are injuries, they can step in and go from there.
- [24:35]
Chad Millman
I want to talk about Houston, Indy, Jacksonville, Tennessee in one lump. Houston specifically though, super fascinating. They need offensive line help. They started with the guard. That's great. It feels like CJ Stroud consistently struggles under the pressure and they have not been here just that has not been as good as he was his rookie year. I would like to get a take Simon for you for the overall draft. And then James, I want an Aiden Fisher, Indiana linebacker drafted in the seventh round. Take Simon, you start.
- [25:15]
Simon Hunter
I just for Houston. I'm happy they took an offensive guard. I just, I thought every pick should have just been offensive line like that. It's just such a glaring weakness. I get they can't help themselves and they had to take the D tackle the next round. It's like, okay, you have a defensive coach. Your defense is a super strength. I'm never going to argue against taking another D tackle. Right. That's just such a key position if you hit on a guy. But I just. When I, when that draft started, I was like, okay, Houston here just take as many offensive linemen as you can. We know this is a good offensive lineman class. This class had many weaknesses. Offensive line was not one of them. But you know, never going to be against a team holding pat. But I just. There were some, some guys out there that felt like they felt a little bit. They could have moved up. It didn't felt the best guy available to them, which, you know, never gonna argue against that. But it's just you didn't need to take another defensive guy. To me, it's just your defense is so good. We saw it last year like they were oh and three and that defense carried them to be in the playoffs where, you know, you have cj, you have the guy on the cheap contract. You've not supported him in any way like you've, you've. Anything. You've shortened his career with all the hits you've let C.J. take. And we've seen it. I mean you both are in greens. We think he's regressed so, you know, not much for me to say about the Colts. Honestly, I think the only thing I took away was a sound bit of the owner calling that player and basically like dropping F bomb. Like you're gonna make these people pay for not believing you passing. I was like, holy, I get it now. This woman's got me fired up. But yeah, the Colts, you know, not that this draft wasn't important. I just saw for Houston where they're at right now, they are a win. Now the Colts, we don't know what Daniel Jones is going to be like coming back from that major injury. Right. They have so many injuries to them and you know, losing those first round picks because of sauce, I just was never going to give a good draft grade to that Colts team. I just. Too many, too many negative questions for me right now with Ballard, but with Houston it's like, dude, just get the offensive line. You have the guy. I just don't, I don't get it. Chad. I'm happy they got a guy, but they should, I feel like they should have taken more offensive lineman in those first two rounds.
- [27:14]
Chad Millman
James, give me an Aiden Fisher SIS rating versus draft and then let's get into the Jaguars because I know you guys have a lot of thoughts on that.
- [27:24]
James Weaver
Yeah, we had him ranked as our 166th prospects. So drafted to 43. So good value there. Just, just a quarterback of a national championship defense. Right. Sits there in the mike linebacker role. He's able to navigate through all the trash that he has to deal with on a, on a play by play basis. Really good instincts. Reason kind of the reason why he falls is, is size right 6 foot 1230 frame isn't that big so has a little bit of trouble with one on one, one on one competition there with some bigger offensive linemen. His coverage ability is a little bit, a little more, a little suspect more definitely better at stopping the run and making sure tackles. Overall we have him. Our grade is a first backup linebacker with a 5.9 grade. So an injury or two and a little bit of refinement of some coverage skills can get him into more prominent role.
- [28:20]
Chad Millman
The comments that Sports Info Solutions has about the Jags I think are reflective of the NFL expert community but should share where you guys landed on this.
- [28:37]
James Weaver
Yeah, this, this was definitely the most puzzling draft out of. Out of all the teams we believe every pick seemed to be a reach. Emmanuel pregnant was, was an okay selection there for the guard from Oregon, but other than that, the Nate Borkircher pick from Texas A and M going in the second round we had him as our 12th ranked tight end overall. The 12th? Yeah. The 12th ranked tight end in the class and he was the third tight end off the board. Then they took another tight end from Houston later in the, in the draft as well. Who's another reach? Albert Regis, a defensive tackle who they picked in the third round. Pick 81. We had him ranked 250th.
- [29:14]
Chad Millman
No.
- [29:15]
James Weaver
Yeah. So it was just a lot of. Just kind of reaches and picking guys and maybe they felt confident with would be great fits for them. We'll see if it, if it plays out that way. But just coming up from an overall drafting standpoint, they could have did better. The, the last takeaway here is I mentioned earlier that we scouted 414 players and the Jaguars took three of them that we didn't look at.
- [29:39]
Chad Millman
No.
- [29:41]
James Weaver
Yep.
- [29:42]
Chad Millman
Sure. That's insane. So clearly whatever they're thinking and look their GM last year made the high profile trade, went up, got Travis Hunter. We don't know if that's going to work out yet. Like they're going to use them differently this year than they did last year. I'm. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. But how arrogant do you have to be to go get three guys that nobody was paying attention to that is thinking you are smarter and seeing diamonds in the rough that nobody else understands. To me that's what it is.
- [30:13]
James Weaver
Yeah, I think that's kind of what their strategy was and what it looked like. Right. It looks like they had guys they had cherry picked that feel like that they can fit their system well. Feels like that they're kind of exact fits for how they want to play on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. And if it works out for them, great. But just kind of from an overall meta perspective, when you're kind of looking, you know, looking at a marketplace of prospects in a draft, they, they definitely left some value to be had.
- [30:38]
Chad Millman
Simon, do we think the Kansas City Chiefs did enough to improve their defense which struggled last year and keep them in contention? I don't. We don't even know when Patrick Mahomes is coming back at this point. All we do is get intermittent reports that he's improving, but we really have no idea. Did they do enough to keep themselves in contention until he is actually back to whatever full speed looks like less than a year after tearing your acl?
- [31:08]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I don't even waste time. I'll go back to the Jags. The Chiefs was so easy. It's like Great, great front office, the best corner. They want to risk him not making it to him because he is the guy like for the cornerback of these, of this draft, he was so far above the second guy because of injuries and other questions to that. So I, I love the draft for the Chiefs, but the Jaguars, one, I, I literally, Chad, I think, you know, my stance on this guy. I just did not like how cocky and confident he was last year in his first draft and basically telling us we're all idiots, how much smart he was on us. That's why he moved up to take Travis Hunter. And when people question him, saying, is it really worth trading up this high just for a guy who's gonna play a receiver or quarterback? He was dead serious saying, no, he's going to play both ways. Like, this is someone who thought a kid that weighed 150lbs soaking wet was going to play both ways in the NFL. And you're just seeing it like if you look at the Jaguars, the template was there. The past GM had done a great job drafting this guy, had made the right move bringing a Liam Cohen, but now he's soiling it with all these horrible draft picks these last two years. So it's a lot of this is. We talk about the sncc, this, the, the guy that's selling you fool's gold, right? These owners can get, fall in love with the meeting room. And that's what this guy did to me, went in there. The owner loves lavish, loves to be different. This guy sold him an idea that he's smarter than everyone else and he's some young hotshot and he's got this job with the Jaguars. And I've like, again, every scout I talked to, Ted laughed at this guy are laughing about the Jaguars draft. So, yeah, I just wanted to reiterate how bad this draft was for the Jaguars. I know their fans have heard it. It's. It's terrifying. You have a guy doing what he's doing. The last team I can remember doing this was the Raiders with Gruden and Madoc. Them taking guys three, four rounds ahead of when other professionals had these guys graded because they're so much smarter than the rest of us. Most of those guys were what, three, four game guys out of the league in three, four years. So it's, it's terrifying. When you break down this Jaguars draft,
- [33:08]
Chad Millman
I wonder if that's going to impact how we think about the Jags in the fall, you know, because I think about their team, they actually didn't have a ton of Holes that they immediately needed to fill. And Trevor Lawrence, he was starting to get better thanks to Liam Cohn. They've got good players in the offensive backfield. They've got good players at skill positions. Their defense was getting better and better last year, especially their edge rushers. Like they didn't have sort of the needs that they had to go in that were going to take them to the next level, especially in the AFC South.
- [33:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Remember how they just. We couldn't get over how dumb Trevor Lawrence was.
- [33:52]
Chad Millman
Dumb.
- [33:53]
Simon Hunter
He was so dumb. And you could just tell there were. Liam Cohen was losing his mind about it. But as the second half of the season, once he got comfortable in the offense, he was so much better because they have so many weapons. They have so many good weapons. Offensively, the question really was that offensive line. And you know, even this year they lost etn. We'll see about the backfield. They have a lot of confidence, the guys in the backfield. But Liam Cohen, year two with Trevor Lawrence, you expect them to take another step in that defense should just be as good as they were last year. So it's like it's all there. They just need to keep adding to it. But yeah, it's. If you're telling me that Hunter now is just gonna play receiver or just gonna play corner. Not, Not a bad. Not bad. Right. He is very talented. Like to me he played well. Both. Both them pretty well. But it just, it's. It's a failed experiment. You gave up equity. Go get this guy. Where it's like if you just held Pat, like, you know, there were great plays, great players at the top of that draft last year and they just, you know, Mason Graham would have been a stud for them, like absolute stud for Cleveland would have been great for them. Instead they, they traded him up to go move up. It's just, it just. I hate it as like a fan of a team that Jaguars has so much potential now they have the head coach. It just feels like it's being wasted now because the GM and I told you, Chad, it's the three facets, right? You need the head coach, the gm, the ownership, all to be in unison for it to all work. And right now it doesn't feel that way for the Jaguars. And I just hate to be the
- [35:15]
Chad Millman
bear of the bad news for the Chargers. You know, last year their season was basically undone because of all their offensive line injuries. Slater was out for the entire year. Rashan Slater and then Joe Al was going back and forth injured, not injured, playing on an injury Then out that team could not protect Justin Herbert. If he ever gets the protection, what are we going to see? Is he going to be a Super bowl caliber quarterback? I feel like that's always been the question. And either the coaching, coaching philosophy didn't match up in the past year, the injuries didn't match up. James, give us your take on how the Chargers helped Justin Herbert.
- [35:58]
James Weaver
Yeah, I. From helping Justin Herbert standpoint, they drafted a center, Jake Slaughter from Florida in the second round there to add some depth to the offensive line, I guess to indirectly help Justin Herbert. Getting a key Mezador at pick 22 was certainly a steal. Getting him to sit behind Khalil Mack and Tuli Tulipilotu for a bit, refine his kind of, kind of his motors there, his motors there, his strengths there, develop a little bit more of a repertoire there with some pass rush moves and get a little bit more discipline on the edge and he'll be able to fit in well. They also drafted Brennan Thompson, a receiver from Mississippi State. Again, another depth piece. But I mean, this Chargers team, you guys mentioned, this offensive line, stays healthy. They're right there. You know, you look across the books, they're pretty much tied with the Chiefs to win the division. They're up there tops in super bowl odds as well. So it's not more of kind of getting things to help Herbert right now. It's more can this team stay healthy. And it's from that perspective that will get them over the edge.
- [37:02]
Chad Millman
All right, let's take a quick break. We'll come back on the other side and talk about the most important draft that happened. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, the official sportsbook partner of the Orlando Magic. And speaking of the Magic, they're back in the NBA playoffs where the lights are brighter, the pressure is higher in every possession can change a series. And on Hard Rock Bet every night is your shot to score a major bucket with win or go home energy on the hardwood. Same game parlays are a great way to get in on the excitement. And Hard Rock Bet gives you tons of ways to stack your picks into SGPs built for the playoffs. And if you're ever late to tip off, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all game long. Try your first bet on Hard Rock Bet today and you can score $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. And while Hard Rock Bet is Florida's only legal sportsbook, you don't have to be in Florida to join the party. Hard Rock Bet is also live live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan, with more states on the way. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and let's get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1809 with it. In Ohio, call 1-800- My reset gambling problem. Call 1-800- Gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia. And now superhuman Shaq I keep telling
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James Weaver
Wasn't that delicious?
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Chad Millman
So good.
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Simon Hunter
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I got it.
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- [42:08]
Chad Millman
the Las Vegas Raiders, they drafted Fernando but they also by all accounts knowing that all draft grades are. People liked their draft. James, I want. I want to get your take on Fernando. But I also don't want you to skip McCoy. Jared McCoy, the cornerback from Tennessee. Simon, I don't want you to skip him either. So let's both talk about the Raiders here. James, you first.
- [42:37]
James Weaver
Yeah. First off starting with Mendoza. This is the worst kept secret in the world. He's had the playbook now for months. He's probably work with Tom Brady. He's worked with the Raiders coaches now ever since Clint Kubiak got hired. This was a no doubt surefire pick. 1st 1st overall pick in this draft to put some numbers to it. He had a higher inner. He had a higher inter quarterback rating in. Excuse me, sorry. He had a higher IQR which is our independent quarterback rating at sis and positive pass percentage than Joe Burrow did in College in his 2019 season with everyone thinks is the greatest quarterback season of all time and had the Third highest on target percentage as well. One issue with Mendoza that people see is his footwork, and sometimes when he's pressured, he can kind of step up into the wrong positions within the pocket, step into pressure and kind of make some errant throws. When he did get pressured, his on target percentage dropped to 63%, which was good for 12th last year among prospects in last quarterbacks in their last seasons and 49 in completion percentage. So a little bit of an issue there for pressure, but other than that, he's able to diagnose defense better than anyone and very comparable to Tom Brady there. So you pair him up there and then from a protection standpoint, they go get Tyler Linderbaum, who's going to diagnose all the pressures and everything from the defensive lineup. That on that front, that's going to be an unbelievable pairing to make sure that they're making the right play, making the right call, and then, yeah, the two corners that they got trade and stukes out of Arizona in the second round and then, yeah, Jermaine McCoy fell to them in the fourth round there. If barring the injury that he had last year, obviously that's the big thing. And the medicals came back not great on him, but in terms of just looking at pure film and what's available, this is the most talented corner in this draft. So if he's able to come back healthy or, you know, even let him take the time to come back fully healthy, this guy's got the ball skills, he's got the range, he's got the lockdown ability to be a number one cornerback in this league, and it all just comes down to health with him.
- [44:44]
Chad Millman
Simon, is there anything we've seen. Do we assume that at some point Fernando is playing full time to make us think that the Raiders over five and a half is a play
- [44:58]
James Weaver
I
- [44:58]
Simon Hunter
think you'll eventually play, right? Because I think we both agree as good as Kirk Cousins is, if they're one in six, why do you not just put the kid in right. At some point, the record will dictate it. Now, if they're five and two, this will be Kirk's team. Like this is an organization that desperately wants to win, including Tom Brady, and that's why I think they're brought in Kirk, because they want to start a winning culture like that was the whole goal for Pete Carroll, right? Bring in someone that's won before with a veteran quarterback. Just let's get some Wins, let's get to.500 and try to get this organization the right direction. They had the number one pick. It completely catered and fell apart last year. It can happen again this season. Child, the new head coach, of course. Right. This is a team that has many holes, but we both agree. Fernando Mendoza, I think is just a game changer for organization. And I think the whole vibe has shifted. Just everyone that's been interviewed and talked about it, it's just changed everything. And that's why we talk how important is right. It's the CEO of a billion dollar company, the quarterback. It really is by far the most important position in sports. And they got a guy that we just all think is an absolute home run off the field. Like just seems like a genuine great person. Hard worker. We all know the weaknesses he has at the talent level. That's why you have the best coaching. Like they can improve all that. I mean especially having Tom Brady in the building with him who desperately wants to get to succeed. Like this is Tom Brady's baby. Apparently they're in constant contact, talking all the time. So I, I can't say enough how much I love this pick for this Raiders team. And I'm just so happy they got him like in another life. He's on the jets right now. And I'm just miserable about it because I think it's a total waste for this jets team. But for this team on the projection of two, three year build, I love, I know a couple Raiders fans can play because I think they went edge and then safety after they took Fernanda Mendoza. Guys, this is what you want. You want them taking best available. You don't want them reaching for professional needs. You guys are not a receiver or off. It's a tackle away from being relevant. In this league, you have so many plays and players you need to gather and fill in holes in this team. So yeah, a plus grade for me for this Raiders team, like it just, they couldn't mess it up unless they didn't take Fernando Mendoza and thank God they took the kid.
- [47:01]
Chad Millman
So I want to, I want to group the rest of the AFC teams, AFC east teams together in Miami, New York, jets and New England. James, from your point of view, who did the best? Miami had 13 picks. The jets had a lot of high picks. New England was drafting low. Plus they're going through all the Mike Vrabel controversy right now. From your point of view, from Sports Info Solutions point of view, how do you think these teams did from one to three?
- [47:33]
James Weaver
Yeah, I think each of these teams, like you said, they all kind of had unique cases, right? The jets had three first round picks. So yeah, adding David Bailey, adding Kenyon Siddiq, adding Omar Cooper Jr those are all really good players. I question a little bit the Sadiq pick given that they spent so much capital to draft Mason Taylor last year. So high. But both David Bailey, I mean there's a little bit of conversation between him or Arvell Reese. In our, in our opinion you couldn't probably went wrong with either. We had Bailey as our second highest ranked prospect. So extremely productive guy last year with 14 and a half sacks. He was first in our pressure percentage above expectation and just has all the traits that you'd want so can't go wrong there. Omar Cooper Jr. As a Steelers fan I'm a little bummed that they passed on him after not getting Makai Lemon there in that debacle. But he's a sure handed receiver, wins at the top of his routes and extremely, extremely good forcing broken and missed tackles. He was the second. Yeah, this is second highest rate coming into the NFL from this class. So just kind of a tough, gritty guy who's going to get you those yards after the catch and find his way. He seems like he's gonna be a very, very suitable target on third down for this jets offense. When you got to get the 5, 6, 7 yards on third down, this is the guy that they can look for. From the Dolphins perspective, we are Kane Proctor. Obviously you guys heard of how polarizing a prospect he was, right? This massive guy, massive frame, dropped 20 pounds in the month of September to get a little quicker and lighter on his feet. I'm never going to bash drafting an offensive lineman in the first round, so I think this is a great pick for the Dolphins. A team that's kind of in a rebuild situation. I always like to see the you build your trenches in the first round. Those are the surest positions to take for some studies that we did. And then the two linebackers that they drafted, Jacob Rodriguez out of Texas Tech and Kyle Lewis out of Pitt, both solid guys to rebuild your defense with. I kind of like Jacob Rodriguez there on the defensive rookie of the year campaign early on, this kind of has that feel to it where it's a guy who's going to kind of be a plug and play day one starter for them. And when you're on a team that's kind of in that rebuild, might be struggling a little bit, might be on the field a lot, he's going to have that high end production at a middle linebacker position where he's making a lot of tackles, making A lot of plays might be forcing turnovers. So seeing some 41 out there that I liked on him for defensive rookie of the year. Kind of like that Carson Schlesinger from last year. Right. Step into that Cleveland defense and have that production. So we think he's a very solid player. He's just a little bit slow and his size a little small, but you know, football instincts, anything like that, he's got him ready to roll. And then Kyle Lewis, they might move him to safety given his size and his frame. He's very athletic. Really good range. Can be a really good coverage linebacker and coverage safety as well. So two, two good picks there for the Dolphins.
- [50:25]
Chad Millman
Simon.
- [50:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's why I always think like the draft great stuff's so hard because I look at all three of these teams, I think they all did pretty well. But we know the truth, the numbers that bear out, it's like two of these teams did okay to bad. That's how it's going to grade out, right? So I thought Miami quietly did a really good job. And I guess, you know, the Jets, I'll skip on them because it's, it's, it's easier. You have three first round picks. I like all three of those guys. Like, they're all really talented, should be studs. But let's just go in New England, right? We all knew they needed to get offensive linemen and they took one and it's like that's, that's what you want to see from an organization. It's like, we know New England's not as good as they, they appeared last year. They're not a Super bowl team, but get a couple offensive linemen in there, you give this young quarterback more protection. That's all you can ask for if you're a Patriots fan. Because that was clearly the biggest need. And you know, if it is true, they're getting A.J. brown, boom. Like your two biggest weaknesses. I felt like in the super bowl last year, you're trying to address it in a free agency in the draft this year. And that's, that's how you be, that's how these great organizations stay great. So, yeah, I'd be pretty happy if I was a New England Patriots fan like that. I know the clip of this kid dancing and spinning around the TV was kind of, kind of brutal to watch. But overall, watching him pass block and his run block and it's like, okay, it looks like they got to start the end of the first round, which we like we said there are a ton of really Good offensive linemen in this draft, a bunch of teams that needed it. And New England did not hesitate. They took the guy right away that they wanted, apparently, and this is a big deal for them as an organization.
- [51:52]
Chad Millman
James, The Pittsburgh Steelers, we still don't know who their quarterback is going to be. We do know that they drafted Drew Aller from Penn State in the third round. As a Steelers fan, as a Pittsburgh native, as a professional sports analyst, give us all three levels of what's happening right now with the Steelers.
- [52:18]
James Weaver
Well, to add to that, on the Drew Aller selection, I'll also throw in my Penn State alum bias here as well. And I've been backfired too many times from watching him play quarterback. I mean, it's kind of right there, right? He's got the physical traits, he's got the arm strength, he's got the mobility, he's got the agility. And that's all top tier stuff, right? That's first round, early, second round stuff. For me. It's everything between the ears. He's going to put a ball, lace one down the seam and then he's going to overshoot a guy by 10 yards and, you know, throw a game ending interception. It's just kind of that sometimes that those decision making aspects of his game are just puzzling and you don't know what's going to happen. So I don't know if that can be baked out in the NFL. I think I'd prefer my guys to be kind of rock solid there by the time they get there. But yeah, we'll see. I mean, you have him and Will Howard there basically battling it out for that, that backup position or potentially the starting position, who knows with what Aaron Rodgers is going to be doing. So, yeah, that'll be a fun one there. First round obviously was a, was a tricky one for the, for the home base faithful there in on the North Shore. Watching the draft live with the Eagles coming up and stealing Makai Lemon from them, hearing that bake out as it was, I was like, okay, you know, they go get him. Steelers needed a receiver. We can, you know, draft Omar Cooper and then they drafted Mice Max Ianchor, the tackle from Arizona State. Again, from a positional perspective, I'm never going to bash taking an offensive tackle or an offensive lineman in the first round. These are the guys that are proven to be the highest marginal value from dropping from the first to later rounds. So getting these guys early is definitely a requisite. But then just, just hearing the news come out of, you know, Them being on the phone with Lemon and then the Eagles coming in and calling his agent, and that was a. That was a tough one to swallow. But overall, I'm not, not, not too. Not too mad about it. He's gonna be a little bit of a developmental prospect there. Hopefully Broderick Jones is okay, where you have some time to develop him and see where you're gonna place him along the offensive line. My two favorite picks for the Steelers here were Jennings Dunker and Jeremy Bernard. Dunker getting him in the third round with pick 96. We had him ranked as our 53rd overall prospect. This guy's a Mauler. He's a prototypical Iowa offensive lineman who's going to get nasty in the run blocking. Has good, solid footwork for pass blocking as well. So I think this is an opportunity for him to slide right into the left guard position, a position of proverbial need for the Steelers. And then Jeremy Bernard, given they didn't get Makai Lemon in the first round, I think this guy fits. Is going to fit well as their third receiver. He's a good route runner. He can separate. It's got that. That quickness and suddenness to get open when you need them to. And I think that's going to pair well with both DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman on the outsides there. And then, yeah, just some guys later on down down the road that they drafted Riley Nowakowski, the tight end from Indiana. He's got kind of that Connor Hayward type written all over him, where maybe in a game in like November or something like that, you're looking for a first touchdown scorer in a Steelers game. And they line up Riley Nowakowski under center to plow him forward to get in the end zone. So I can see something along that. And then, yeah, Kaden Wejin and Eli Heidenreich in the extreme late rounds. Wheatjen in the fourth round, actually, but kind of two. Just versatile pieces, kind of. Kind of some gadget guys to see which one can. Can make the roster and maybe stick around and make an impact.
- [55:47]
Chad Millman
Simon, you get the last word in the Tennessee Titans, because this is a team that for two years we have not been able to pinpoint and get right. When they were losing, we weren't betting on them when we thought they'd start winning. We did start betting on them, and we were losing. They got a new coach. They surprised a little bit, I think, going for Carnell Tate in the top five, getting him number four when they could have gone on defense and gotten a guy who sort of matches what Salah is going to be trying to do defensively. But overall, what did you think?
- [56:15]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I was right there with you. I'm shocked they went Tate first. I, I did think they would just go defense, right. It's just such a need and you have a great defensive line of a coach. He could have got Sonny and that would just been your leader of that defense and he would have done everything Salah asked for. Right. That Fred Warner position. So you know Tate, no one's gonna knock it guys. A good, good, good receiver. Is he ever going to re reach Chase's level? You know these number one guys like the CD lambs of the world. I just can't see it, Chad. I really can't. That's why it's like a tough, tough for me to be like, okay, this guy's worth taking number four pick. It's such a high pick. So yeah, if you're, you're Tennessee right now and you're sitting there and you're like, okay, we needed to get some an offense. We need to tackle the defense. You know they did that for you, right? They did go get their edge at the end of the first round and they got the big time receiver at the beginning of the first. So you know, I'm not, I wouldn't complain. Right. You have Ward, you need to support Ward. Go get Tate. Hopefully they can huge make a huge relationship. And this is type of thing where four years down the road it's like why do we ever doubt it, right? Warden, Tate, that connection never should have doubted because we've seen Tate in college. He was overshadowed by Smith in college. Right. Because that kid's so dominant. But Tate is a really good receiver. It's just number four pick in a draft class. There wasn't really a number guaranteed number one guy. It's. It just feels like a lot to pay for that type of player.
- [57:37]
Chad Millman
Well, four years down the road is the key phrase. That's when we really know if any of these drafts panned out for any of these teams. Thank you James Weaver from Sports Info Solutions for joining us. Part two of the draft recap. Be sure to check out part one covering the NFC from earlier this week. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods rate Review. Subscribe. Leave this five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time love you take the
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James Weaver
better football player in the long run
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Simon Hunter
it works out between the two. You're splitting hairs right there with Bradford
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We have a long day ahead of us.
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- [60:01]
Daniel Cormier
This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. Power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either made the move or you missed a moment. That's why you need a network that's just as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless, you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in the action from the walkouts to the knockouts. Now that's a total power move. Make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless Store. Additional terms apply. See totalwireless.com for details.
- [60:37]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.