Sharp or Square - NFL Free Agency Reactions with Bill Barnwell

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square - NFL Free Agency Reactions with Bill Barnwell
Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Guest: Bill Barnwell (ESPN/The Bill Barnwell Show)

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Overview & Main Theme

This episode of “Sharp or Square” dissects NFL Free Agency’s early days with a deep dive into winners, losers, market reactions, and team-building philosophies. Hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are joined by analytics-driven NFL writer Bill Barnwell, whose recent column (“NFL Free Agency Winners and Losers”) sets the backbone for the conversation. Together, they analyze major transactions—most notably Tua Tagovailoa’s move, the Panthers’ headline signings, and the shifting power balance in multiple divisions—while spotlighting betting implications, historical context, and organizational strategies.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tua Tagovailoa Signs with the Falcons

Segment: [11:29–14:06]

• Barnwell’s Take:
  • Tua, still owed $54M guaranteed by Miami, lands in Atlanta for the league minimum.
  • “No one’s going to pay him more than the league minimum because it would just offset what the Dolphins pay.”
  • Falcons and Cardinals were, analytically, the best fits: inside stadium, good OL, and opportunities to start.
  • “You don’t want to put too much on his shoulders; you want heavy play-action, a good line, and an offense not based around him being Superman.”
  • With organizational turnover, there’s less commitment to past draft picks; Tua has a legit shot to win the job.

2. Reassessing the NFC South

Segment: [14:06–22:42]

• Division Overview:

  • Traditionally, the NFC South is perceived as underwhelming.
  • Panthers splashed for Jalen Phillips; Saints brought in Travis Etienne and have optimism around QB Tyler Shough; Falcons and Panthers both finished with the same record, yet Panthers fired everyone while Carolina gets the “bonus bump” from a playoff appearance.

• Simon Hunter’s Angle:

  • Loves NFC South as “my moneymaker” due to parity and unpredictability.
  • On Panthers overpaying for Phillips: “It’s not my money... He did put a ton of pressure on QBs. I like the move for what they needed.”

• Barnwell’s Analysis:

  • Phillips has great pressure rates but major health risk: “If you could promise me 17 games of Jalen Phillips, I’d be thrilled…but that’s a really big risk.”
  • On Panthers/Falcons difference: “Maybe we’re overstating it because one made the postseason and the other turned over the org.”

• Saints’ Late Surge Skepticism:

  • Saints finished strong but against “meh to really bad” defenses—momentum narrative is overstated.
  • “Easy for people...to say, hey, they’ve got momentum, but they are going to be losing a bunch of talent this year.”
  • Warns not to overproject Tyler Shough’s closing stretch.

3. How Analytics Shape Free Agency Analysis

Segment: [24:09–26:46]

• Barnwell’s Methodology:
  • In-depth game-watching paired with analytics platforms (e.g., Next Gen Stats) to confirm or challenge eye-test insights.
  • Focus on “quick pressures” as especially valuable—evidence must back analysis, blending anecdotal and statistical.
  • “If my instinct from watching all those games says a guy has a lot of pressures, let me go to the pressure source I trust most.”

4. Inside the Industry: NFL Feedback on Analysis

Segment: [26:46–28:41]

• Barnwell on Team Contacts:
  • Receives frequent texts/calls (sometimes mid-podcast) from front office people reacting to his columns.
  • “Usually it’s pretty positive…once a year I get a really angry executive calling me and that’s usually a fun hour.”

5. Most Improved Teams of Free Agency

Segment: [37:29–43:01]

• Rams:

  • Addressed biggest need (cornerback) with trades for Trent McDuffie, Jalen Watson—perfect for their dime-heavy, blitzing scheme.
  • “Needed to get cornerback better immediately. They are in true win-now mode—no succession plan post-Stafford.”

• Raiders:

  • Overpaid for center Tyler Linderbaum, “but that’s not my problem—I’m not paying…”
  • Proactive in supporting presumed new QB Fernando Mendoza and coach Clint Kubiak.
  • “Nice, logical spend for what the offense needs—help the QB, fix the run game, get a better interior line.”
  • Defense still a multi-year project, but infrastructure improving.

• Betting Angle:

  • Rams: +775 Superbowl odds; Raiders: 150-1. Vegas is a classic “sleeper” after underperforming.

6. Elevating the Center (Offensive Line) Position

Segment: [45:29–48:07]

• Changing Market:
  • Linderbaum’s contract resets center value leaguewide.
  • “This is a position that’s been underrated. If you have a young QB, overpaying for the right center is a dream scenario.”
  • Draws a line from Mahomes, Hurts, Stroud’s development to the strength/weakness of their centers.

7. Biggest Losers and Underwhelming Offseasons

Segment: [48:56–52:07]

• Eagles:

  • Given an “incomplete”—no early moves, but that’s not bad in itself. Have homegrown players hitting extension windows, so may need patience.

• Ravens:

  • Blasted for “negatively harming themselves.” Traded two firsts for Max Crosby, an aging star.
  • “That is just not a trade we have seen. Missing two first-round picks, lost free agents—going to be top-heavy and brittle. Not a good place to be.”

• Texans:

  • “Didn’t do themselves any favors” supporting CJ Stroud; O-line unimproved and RB acquisition (David Montgomery) is backwards.
  • “Shopping in the wrong order—should’ve fixed the line first, got the RB last. Feels like no long-term vision for Stroud’s support.”

8. Most Desperate & Confusing Signings

Segment: [58:12–62:34]

• Tennessee:

  • Overpaid for gadget/depth pieces, “solved nothing, spent $25 million a year in the process.”
  • Tight end signing Daniel Bellinger: “You really needed to get a day-one blocking tight end just because he knew Brian Daboll?”

• Pittsburgh:

  • “I don’t know who they are anymore…they used to pay in-house, now they’re signing cast-off second receivers, linebackers they don’t need.”
  • Michael Pittman is a “salary dump.” Steelers have become “incurious about making it past the opening round of the playoffs.”
  • Urges them to lean into young talent—Joey Porter Jr., interior OL, etc.

• Colts:

  • In a bind over Daniel Jones’ contract ask (“50 million per year”—“he’s not a real quarterback yet”). Would prefer rolling the dice on a cheap, unknown QB.

• Cardinals:

  • Applauded for full commitment to rebuilding (“burning it all down”). Signing stopgaps, preparing to tank for a top QB.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Political Betting Regulation:
  “The senator…actually says, 'no one should profit off war,' and that works for the U.S. government.” – Simon, [07:47]

• On NFC South’s Identity:
  “The NFC South has gone to every team has gone to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys have not in the last 30 years. That’s all you need to know about the Cowboys organization.” – Simon, [15:24]

• On Analytics Approach:
  “I have to have evidence for what I say. Some of that evidence is anecdotal...some of it is using data I trust to reinforce that the thing I saw is real and accurate.” – Bill Barnwell, [26:36]

• On Chiefs Overpaying at RB:
  “Something’s different about this Chiefs organization…[Kenneth Walker’s] not worthy of that money…Most desperate, bizarre move by a Chiefs organization that seems so smart, calculating.” – Simon, [29:23]

• On Steelers Losing Identity:
  “They have lost what makes the Steelers the Steelers…They would rather go 9-8 year after year and have no hope of winning a Super Bowl than take that step backwards in the hopes of actually taking a bigger step forward.” – Barnwell, [64:55]

• On “Buying” the Tank:
  “I am so happy Arizona is going this route...You are five years behind every team in your division. You need to do what Arizona did. So I love the full on tank by them.” – Simon, [60:11]

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Tua to Falcons: [11:29–14:06]
• NFC South overview & reactions: [14:06–22:42]
• Inside Barnwell’s analytics: [24:09–26:46]
• NFL insider feedback: [26:46–28:41]
• Most improved teams: [37:29–43:01]
• Upgrading the center position: [45:29–48:07]
• Biggest losers of free agency: [48:56–52:07]
• Most desperate signings: [58:12–62:34]
• Barnwell on Steelers’ identity crisis: [62:34–64:55]

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Flow & Tone

The conversation is rigorous but accessible, blending sharp analysis (“football intelligence for a mass audience”), humor, and betting savvy. Barnwell is self-deprecating, transparent about process and mistakes, bracingly honest on NFL execs’ reactions, and regularly references both on-field nuances and market realities.

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Summary Table: Free Agency Big Picture

| Category | Teams Highlighted | Key Points | |-------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Biggest Winners | Rams, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers (conditional) | Addressed key needs; built for QB success | | Most Concerning Offseasons | Eagles (“Incomplete”), Ravens (top-heavy risks), Texans | Relying on status quo, bad contracts, or poor vision for infrastructure | | Desperate/Confusing | Titans, Steelers, Colts, Chiefs (RB contract) | Illogical signings not solving root problems | | Tank Reboot Praised | Cardinals | Committed to drastic rebuild in tough division |

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For Listeners Who Missed It

This episode provides essential insight for both casual NFL fans and betting pros—breaking down the why behind headline moves and highlighting the market’s hidden context. Strong on actionable takeaways (futures betting perspective), skeptical of hype based on narratives over substance, and rich with inside football and analytics nuance.

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Transcript

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Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the square sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention all season and off season long. I am Shad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.

[C]

I felt like we had what, two, three week lull there and now we're right back in the thick of it feels like with NFL Brother, dude, there

[B]

is no rest for the Wicked in the NFL season. You're. You got a nice little new spot there. You're loaded with, like, a whole new situation.

[C]

Yep. I gotta. I got a new studio and I got all my collectibles behind me on my one piece, my Pokemon, and yeah, finally set up and hopefully I'll have this spot until the season, so we'll see. But definitely, definitely look much better than I did last week on the handheld.

[B]

Yeah, people always forget about your deep, deep investment in the essentially anime space with all those cards and how committed you are to the risk and leveraging across all fronts. Not just football, Simon. Not just football.

[C]

Yeah, And I would say I. I'm someone that's always looking for another option than cash. Chad knows this. I'm a crazy person. If I can get gold rather than cash. My whole life I've done it. And yeah, being very skeptical of our government has paid out very well for your boy and Pokemon as well. You could have bought the worst box ever printed. It's only doubled in value, so. So it's one of those things where in my whole life I've been investing in buying it. And like I said, the worst stuff, if you held on it for 10 years, it goes up a hundred percent. So it's something like, you know, I just like having assets and yeah, it's fun to show it off in the background.

[B]

Well, listen, if you're talking about fiat currencies, like the, you know, US Dollar, I just spent the past weekend at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and I did, and I actually, look, a lot of it was AI, but almost all of it was prediction markets. And obviously, you know, crypto is a huge part of the conversation. That's why I brought up the fiat currencies is a huge part of the conversation for prediction markets. And by the way, we have a guest coming on, a massive guest to talk NFL free agency. But I do think this is interesting for people because I ultimately moderated a panel with Shane Copeland, who's the CEO of Polymarket, as well as Nate Silver, obviously famous now doing the substack Silver Bulletin Creator 538, and another guy named Rick Best, who runs the prediction market desk for Susquehanna, the massive trading firm, and that are getting deep, deep, deep into prediction markets, and they're opening their own prediction market at JV with Robinhood. Obviously. I'm writing quite a bit about prediction markets for my book that's coming out early next year. And it was fascinating because, you know, two days before I was interviewing Shane on this panel. Two different senators had proposed a bill called the END Prediction Market Corruption act. Because as America started a war with Iran, there were all these trades about when that would actually start happening. And about a thousand people made trades on polymarket that this would happen within 24 hours. And it was about $855,000 worth of bets. And people were many, many people. I think close to 20 people won or earned more than $100,000 on these bets. Several others, I think another 100 people earned more than $19,000 on the bets. You know, early in the year, there was the bet where someone had won $400,000 on when Maduro was going to be captured. So there's been a lot of conversation about insider. The idea of insiders profiting from inside information on political and geopolitical markets on these prediction exchanges. So I asked Shane about this and he answered the question which I thought was great. He answered a lot of questions that were challenging about how to manage this. I just thought it was fascinating. And we're talking a lot about these things. Look, these things and these guys who are creating them, whether it's Kalshee Polymarket, they are libertarian in the parlance of prediction exchanges, Hayekian, meaning like they fully believe in the freedom to trade whatever they want to trade without government interference. And their visions and bombast is running up against public backlash and regulatory frameworks that are being proposed that are challenging these real ideas. Fascinating time to be in this space. And obviously they're getting bigger and bigger into sports, which we'll get into. But if anyone wants to watch it, go check out 42analytics.com, that's the Sloan sports website and it's on there. You know, I've got all the streams for the days and this was the first one on Saturday. So it's the very first one that's live on Saturday. Great conversation that, that that was had. So thank you.

[C]

Just to put a bonus, my favorite line chat from the whole thing you just said was the senator. I am not joking, people. This man actually says this was no one should profit off war and that works for the US Government.

[B]

You know what's funny?

[C]

And he was being dead serious when he in the irony at all.

[B]

So here's the problem and then we're going to get to our guest who's actually a mainstay at Sloan and is one of the guys who like people idolize, who are moving up in the space because of what he's been able to do with analytics and football. What I will say about this and I, you know, I'm working on the book right now. I'm and I wrote this line in relation to the proposal that was put forth in advance of when I was doing this panel. I'm like, it just reeked of political grandstanding proposing the bill. But prediction exchanges brought it upon themselves because of the backlash. And they're allowing politicians to stand their ground on the this kind of notion that they can get away with this. So it's going to be fascinating to see what happens. But that's a good transition to bringing in our guest. NFL free agency officially has kicked off. The player movement has been fast and furious across the NFL. Our guest posted the definitive column of how to judge winners and losers in this market today, which is why we're lucky to be having him on. A very special guest returning to the show. Longtime writer for espn, veteran sports media personality, an originator in every sense. A guy who has taken analytics, used it for football intelligence for a mass audience. He's universally beloved. The article I'm talking about NFL free agency winners and losers is on ESPN.com, the front pitch page, top of the page right now. Host of the Bill Barnwell Show. Welcome back, Bill Barnwell. BB From Queens. How you doing brother Chad?

[A]

How are you, Simon? I have not delved in the Pokemon universe, but I did grab a couple of like giant Lego sets and hold them for a few years and that was a surprising source of value. So the only problem was I had to lug them around east coast in like three different moves. These like enormous like thousand piece Lego sets. That wasn't fun fun, but turns out they are a profitable place of value as well.

[C]

Story of my life. You just something my life right there. When I was moving, I go, why did I buy all this? It is the worst moving, especially for a collector. But yeah, like you said, Pokemon, it's got a crazy, crazy market. These fans, it's worldwide.

[B]

Fellas, I don't want anyone to forget since we have a very popular guest on anyone can get the show at Sharper Square on YouTube. They can subscribe, they can like the video. They can subscribe to Sharper Squ, Apple Pods, Spotify wherever you get your pods. Bill, let's not dilly dally. I want to talk about Tua signing with the Falcons because he gets outsized attention because of the contract, because going back to like the draft and who should take him and where he should be taken and the up and down success and the concussions and everything else he's getting paid 54 million by the dolphins no matter what. Now he's signing with the Falcons. Give us your take on this because I thought what you were saying in the column was spot on. How are you feeling about this?

[A]

I have to say from Tua's perspective, I mean, it feels pretty good as far as potential landing spots. I, I, when I looked at Tua's market, obviously it wasn't going to cost anything because like you said, the Dolphins are paying him $54 million. He gets that whether he makes $20 million with the other team, whether he makes a million dollars with another team. So no one's going to pay him more than the league minimum because it would just offset what the Dolphins pay. So he's getting $54 million. Really, his team is paying him one and a half million dollars or so. But there were a lot of teams who either have a quarterback or I think would say, I don't know if he's really for us or it might not be a great fit for Tua. I mean, a team like the Browns, for example, yes, they have an opening at quarterback to compete with the various guys they have in the building, but that's a cold we TUA has not played well in cold weather. It is an offense that has five new starting offensive linemen coming in 2026 potentially. Tua obviously needs a healthy offensive line to play his best football and a good offensive line to play his best football. I, I don't think you want to put too much on his shoulders. I think you want to have a really heavy play action game and look at the teams who could have signed Tua who don't play outdoors, who have a decent offensive line, who have a decent run game and who have an opening at quarterback. Falcons and Cardinals felt like the two best fits to be and the Falcons I think make a lot of sense. They have Michael Penix coming off Victorian acl, don't know what his status is going to be in 2026. The people who inexplicably signed Kirk Cousins and then drafted Michael Pennix in the top 10 are gone. So there's not the organizational sort of like commitment to Michael Penix. Maybe there would have been if those people were still in the building. Kevin Stefanski, you know, has not exactly had the, how can I say this nicely, the greatest crop of quarterbacks to work with over the course of his career. But I think he's typically done a good job with the guys he had. Deshaun Watson maybe a notable exception. I Don't know if anybody can fix how bad desean Watson has been since joining the Cleveland Browns, but you have an offense that I think is going to be heavy play action based a lot of booting to the left. Kevin Stefanski loves booting to the left. That's a Falcons team that stylistically was already playing to the left last year because Michael Penix was the quarterback for most of the season. So I think Tua fits in and it is a to me the best opportunity to win a job. I think even if he had gone elsewhere, you know, I floated him even going to the Chiefs as like the sort of like September Patrick Mahomes replacement. That would have been fine, but obviously no chance of him being the starter there in the long term. He has a shot at winning a starting job in Atlanta for an entire season, if not into the future after the Dolphins stopped paying his contract.

[B]

You know what's interesting, Simon? We rip on the NFC south all the time. Just a quartet of nondescript regional fan bases that have no real national prominence. Don't really make an impact. They're always the perennial are the team that the division with teams that are 8, 9, 9 and 8, you know, 10 and 7, they'll win the division. They'll get a good seed but only because of a lack of competition in their division. So between the Falcons and Stefanski, who I think we can agree is a good coach and kind of got job with a lack of talent at quarterback by the Browns, the Panthers signed Jalen Phillips. Bill, I know you love that signing Simon, before we came on the air you were skeptical. The Saints signed Travis etn. They've made some moves. You know, we'll see how we feel about shuck going into year two. Let's assess from each of your points of view how each team has moved in this division because it's it all of a sudden. It could be a fascinating division. Simon, you're up first and I'll say from the top.

[C]

Chad is the one has all those feelings for NFC South. I love the NFC South South. It's my money maker and I'll my favorite Dallas clown on Dallas Cowboys. The NFC south has gone to every team has gone to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys have not in the last 30 years. And that's. That's all you need to know about the Cowboys organization.

[B]

And for the record, don't forget Chad's choice last week in our season win totals. Part one was Carolina over six and a half and you said I was. I was. What did you said you said it was a trap.

[C]

Yeah, it's a big trap line. But yeah, I'll just start for the quarterback move for Tua. I, I agree with Bill. Like to me that was a great move because they have, they're gonna have two lost seasons here, right? If maybe they hit on Tua and that'll be great. But you draft a quarterback in the top 10 that's a miss, that's looking like a miss and you pay Kirk all that money that's going to set your organization back three, four years. There's still a window though. There's still a window because they have so much talent. So Tua can't come in there playing the offense be fixed. Great. If Panc's come back early and he is more comfortable now in this offense and it's year three for him, great. So to me, I love the move organizationally from Atlanta for the Carolina Panthers getting Phillips. I love the move chat, because it's not my money. So to me they overpaid for a player but they filled a void. They had a weakness. They went out and overpaid for a guy that has not proven to be worth that type of money in any way. But you see the upside as someone that is an Eagles fan that watched him this year, he was always a step late on getting the sack so his stats might not look amazing the outside but he did put a ton of pressure on, on QBs and he played very well for coming to a new system midway through the year. So to me, Carolina, that's a move they needed to make. They have an owner with a ton of money who's had some big misses. I like the move for them. So I, I, I, I agree with Bill that it's a good move for Carolina. I just don't know, I don't know if I'd want my to be paying that type of money for a guy like him though.

[A]

Yeah, I mean it's a good player but, but to Simon's point, like he's never been a 30 million dollar a year player. He might have that potential. Simon's right in that he has great pressure numbers, just not great sack numbers. And the pressures matter, you know, creating pressures, what you want your pass rushers to do. But we're talking about a guy who retired in college because he had concussion concerns, who suffered a concussion last year with the Eagles, thankfully did not miss time because of it, who has a torn ACL, a torn Achilles in his first five NFL seasons. If you could promise me we were getting 17 games of Jalen Phillips, I would be thrilled. I'd say, okay, great, I'm in for $30 million a year. But that's a really big risk. And it's something for the Panthers where I think it makes evaluating them tougher because, like, yes, there's a scenario where the, the guys they have who are really good stay healthy, and that could be a really fun team. But I'm, I just have my concerns that even though they have some really significant investments up front on the defensive line, obviously I've invested a ton on their offensive line. I, I just don't know that I really have a lot of faith in those guys being consistent. And like, yes, they made the postseason. I think they're sort of like a. They get a little bonus bump in people's heads. But, but you have to remember the Falcons finished with the exact same record as the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers won the division. And so they seems like, oh, we're taking a step in the right direction. We, you know, we're gonna, we have the right people around. We're gonna spend more money. The Falcons fired everyone with the same exact record. So I, I just sort of feel like maybe we're. The difference between those two teams is being overstated by the fact that one made it to the postseason and another turned over pretty much their entire organization.

[B]

Well, look, the season win total for the Falcons is seven and a half. The season win total for the Saints is seven and a half. The season win total for the, for the Panthers is six and a half. What do we think, Simon? The market is telling us right now when the Saints have vaulted over the Panthers in their season win totals. What, what are we supposed to take from that?

[C]

Very easy. It's basically, you win your division, you play a first place schedule. So that's exactly what the Panthers are looking at. And it's a team that, I mean, villages nail it. They overachieved. They went above expectations last year. Not me and you, Chad. We believed in them last year. But we'd be the first to admit Bryce Young, some of the games he put together, you were never going to see coming. I mean, that the games against the Rams as well, those are some of his best games of his career. It was impressive how, how well he played against a. A really good Rams defense. So, you know, when I look at that team, like you just said that in that division, it's so fluky. I'm more inclined to take the under, especially the books. The books are telling themselves. Here they are getting 99 of the over money to the Carolina Panthers, right? It's people very early are taking that over because of what you just said. It just feels naturally they should improve on last year, especially the fact they've added free agency. But on the other way where it's like, I know they overachieved, I know they stole two games last year. Mathematically, if Atlanta a little better, if the Saints are a little better, if the Bucks don't lose eight straight games and they're a little better, that's gonna be really tough for them to get the seven wins. Chad, it's just a tough division, especially when you need Bryce Young to take another step.

[A]

And I would say the other thing for the Saints perspective here is timing matters, right? I mean this Saints team was 2 and 10 heading into December and then they win four straight games right at the end of the year. Easy for people I think to say, hey, they've got momentum moving forward, they have a quarterback who we believe in and Tyler Shook. And man, I'll tell you what, I thought Tyler Shook looked good last year. I thought Spencer Rattley looked good last year. Which tells me I think Kellen Moore is a pretty darn good NFL head coach and offensive play designer because he had two quarterbacks. I did not have high hopes for playing well last year. But go to that four game winning streak. I know a lot of people were not sitting around in the middle of December and saying, you know what I'm gonna watch today? I'm watching Saints Bucks, I'm watching Saints Panthers, I'm watching Saints jets. And I could tell you a lot of people were not watching Saints titans in week 17, nor should they have been. There's better things to do with your life than watching those games. I watch them because I am a sicko. But we're talking about four defenses that range from meh to really bad. Jets defense was actively revolting against Aaron Glenn late in the season. Tennessee's defense was bad all year in secondary. Tampa Bay did not have a good defense against the pass all year. Carolina's defense was okay, a couple good cornerbacks, but they to the point of signing Jalen Phillips not have a great pass rush from the edge a year ago. And so there are reasons to be optimistic about what the Saints have. But they are going to be losing a bunch of talent this year. They finally have a little bit of money to spend. Their cap situation's better than it's been before, which is great. But they have not had great drafts in recent years. They lost Alante Taylor who was their best quarterback to free agency. So I do think there's reasons to be optimistic. But at the same time, this was a five win team that played one of the easiest schedules in football. I think people are doing a lot of projecting about Tyler Schuck and that late game stretch being more meaningful than perhaps the earlier stretch where they were, like I said, 2 and 10 and not playing very good football.

[B]

So at the end of the day, it might be the same as it always is. Bucks, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, that we've given the NFCC south so much time. And at the end of the day it's going to be the same as it ever was. Bill, I can tell you right now, we watched every second of every Saints game because of the 200 to 1 Tyler shook bet that Simon gave out right when he was about to go into his run that ended up with him barely losing out on offensive Rookie of the Year. You just said something though that's interesting to me about you're kind of a sicko. And you had a great line in the column today about Jalen Phillips and his next gen stats chip rate and that what the Panthers are really paying for. And by the way, we're spending so much time on this because the two biggest winners in Bill's column were TUA and Jalen Phillips. So you talked about his next gen stats rate, the chip rate for next gen stats, and that's really what they're paying for. What I'm always curious about in your columns, are you going through 8 million stats across multiple deep analytics platforms, like, how are you figuring out which to go to so quickly? Because you're also turning these things around so quickly. It's an inside baseball story question. But I gotta know.

[A]

It's my job. That's what I know.

[B]

Listen, I know it's your job. It's also why I tried to hire you 8 million times at Action Network. You're very, very good at it. But I need to know, like, how are you getting it done so quickly? How do you figure out where you're going to go? Like what the best thing is to look at so fast?

[A]

Well, I mean, I'm watching the games and so I have like, it's not like I'm sitting here saying, oh, is Jalen Phillips good at anything? Like what does he, Is he good at this? Like, I know from watching the games each week, watching all 22 each week, Jalen Phillips created a ton of pressures. Like I have that in my head already. And so I know, okay, who has the Pressure numbers I trust the most. That's next gen stats. Just because they are tracking not just all pressures, but specifically the pressures I really think are valuable are quick pressures. Those are usually two, two and a half seconds. Are you beating a guy quickly and getting right at the quarterback? That's a really valuable stat to me. So I know, okay, I know Jalen Phillips sack numbers aren't great because he didn't have double digit sacks this year or anywhere close. But if my instinct from watching all those games says he has a lot of pressures, let me go to the pressure source I trust most. Let me see where he ranks. Oh, he ranks pretty well. Great. We are good. I don't need to look for anything else. If I look for this account, the way I figure, I go back and say, okay, well maybe is the stat not accurately capturing what I saw? Did I not see enough of a sample? You know, I have not watched every single play, but I've watched every third down. I've watched every pressure, I've watched every, you know, pass attempt over the course of the season. So I've seen a lot of stuff. So sometimes the numbers don't agree with me and I say, okay, well maybe my opinion is wrong or maybe my evidence is wrong or maybe there's something in the data that I need to account for more, more accurately. I'll give you a good example. The packers traded for Rashan Gary yesterday and I was like, well, you know, okay, player like, like, you know, price tag a little higher than I would have hoped for, but like solid numbers against the pass rush. I've seen him make some plays this year. When I look, look back at his pressure numbers, they weren't very good. Like it's sort of like it made me lean down a bit versus where my expectations were when I looked at that trade to begin with. So you know, I think I'm, I'm trying to use numbers to have evidence and I'm not using the numbers to like distort what I'm trying to say. I'm not trying to just blow people's minds with crazy numbers. I think you have to put everything in context. But like the reality is I'm not a former player, I am not a former coach. If I'm going to say something, I have to have evidence for what I say. And so some of that evidence is anecdotal, it's big picture watching games and some of it is using data that I trust to reinforce that, okay, this thing I saw actually is real and accurate.

[B]

How often do you get calls from scouts, GMs, personnel people to either yell at you because they disagree or tell you like, yeah, you're totally nailing it.

[A]

I got one during our taping, so.

[B]

Just now?

[A]

Yeah, just about once every. Once every half hour or so during the, during the first few days of free agency, people have a little bit of free time and they, they read stuff and want to yell at me or. This one actually was more complimentary.

[B]

I was gonna say, give, give me the context. Did this person tell me what this person said? You don't have to tell me who it was.

[A]

I'm not gonna reveal what. I'll tell you off the air what the person said, but I, I'll just say it was very rarely. Once in a while I get something wrong and so I look at people saying, hey, like you didn't consider this or maybe you didn't realize this was the case and that's, that's meaningful and valuable. But usually it's more like if it's something they don't like, it's usually a thoughtful, hey, this is what we were thinking. This is why it made sense to us. Sometimes with some teams there's, there's just straight up anger, like, how could you even consider this? But usually it's complimentary. Usually it's like, yeah, glad you saw that. Yeah, that makes sense. Or someone's saying, oh, we didn't know why this team did this. And it actually made sense when you put it in context for, for me. So it really is more. It's not as like dramatic once I say once every year I get like a really angry executive calling me and that's usually a fun hour where I sit there and just sort of like talk them down from whatever they want to vent at me. But usually it's pretty positive. I will say people generally like people who seek me out, who have my number, who are trying to get in touch with me, usually are more like minded than you might think.

[C]

Well, I got to know. Are these teams reaching out to? My two favorite moves so far this year have been done by the Rams. I love what the Rams have done in this free agency.

[B]

I would love.

[C]

Are you getting texts from people asking you or commenting about what are the Chiefs doing? This is not the Chiefs. We're used to going out and paying our running back that is not worthy of that money, in my opinion. I know they have the same number as I do and it is the most desperate, bizarre move by a Chiefs organization that seems so smart, calculating all their moves are Teams around the league texting you, being, like, laughing about. Are they all saying, oh, this is a good move? What are teams saying about the Chiefs? Because I. In my circles, a lot of guys raising eyebrows. It's like, something's different about this Chiefs organization. They've been in the past.

[A]

Yeah, it's a good question. I do find that certain teams get the benefit of the doubt. You know, like when the. When the Patriots were rolling with Belichick. I remember even publicly you'd hear about, you know, when the Patriots wouldn't, like, would suggest a rule change, people wouldn't want to vote for it because they were like, oh, Belichick knows something we don't. He's going to break something that we don't realize. I'm not voting for that. I'm not giving Belichick anything. Even if it was like, a totally innocuous rule change, the Chiefs don't have that sort of, like, hold over people. But there is an element of, like, people talk themselves into it when it comes to a lot of what the Chiefs do. Like, I'll give you an example. Trading Tyree Kill a couple years ago, there were definitely people who would have, you know, I think if it had been a different team, said, hey, what are they thinking? These are the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes, his top receiver is gone. He's in the prime of his career. We're in win now mode. You're trading him for draft picks like, you don't even know who's going to be catching the ball for you next year. And that worked out okay. I mean, there wasn't like, Tyree Kill was bad in Miami. He was a superstar for two years. But all things being equal, Chiefs won two Super Bowls after that trade. I think it worked. You know, they're. They're not perfect. They don't hit 100. I. I understand why they made this move for Kenneth Walker. To me, it's about explosive plays. They were just not generating anything explosive in their run game. And Kenneth Walker is someone who has his limitations. Not a great receiver, not a great pass blocker, but does create a lot of explosive plays. Chunk plays in the run game. I was going to see a lot of light boxes based on what Kansas City sees on defense. Could they have gotten that for less money by signing Kenny Gainwell or signing Rico Doddle? I do think so. But I guess the thing that I would base it on, my concern was that they were going to draft Jeremiah Love at 9, and Jeremiah is going to be a good player. But the opportunity cost of taking a running back at nine when you have other positions that are much harder to fill, that you're going to finally get a chance to address in the top 10 of the draft, whether that be edge rusher, whether that be tackle, whether that be wide receiver, whether it be cornerback, which they have a huge need for now with the Rams, like you mentioned, getting Kansas City's two best corners away via trade and via free agency, you have to take that shot on those guys. Then you just cannot afford to take a running back in the first round. We saw them do it. Clyde Edwards, a lair. And everyone loved it. I loved it. Scouts loved it. It was a great move. And then Jonathan Taylor was off the board in the second round and T. Higgins was the next player taken. And that would have been a much more valuable player for them over the ensuing five years, even though it didn't look like they needed a wide receiver at the time. And so all of this goes to say, people are generally respectful. There's like, there's a certain level of reverence for Andy Reid that I feel like would lead to if this were a different team, I think there'd be more criticism. But I think in the NFL, they, the Chiefs, generally get the benefit of the doubt.

[B]

Let's do a quick break from our friends at Hard Rock on the other side. I want to get Bill's take on desperate signings and teams that have improved themselves the most and the biggest losers. We'll be right back. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Florida's sportsbook march is here and that means college hoops take center stage. The stakes are rising, the shots are falling. And now is the time to hit the hardwood with Hard Rock Bet. Sign up today and double your winnings on your first 10 bets. Max $50. That's right. Your winnings are doubled on your first 10 bets. So you if you would have won 100 bucks on your bet, make that 200. That's how you start March hot. And the welcome offer is just the tip off all tournament long. Hard Rock BET is rolling out daily dance and boosts featuring a live profit boost and a parlay profit boost every single day. More ways to shoot your shot. More ways to cash in with boosted odds. So don't sit on the bet. You should download the Hard Rock BET app today. Let's get the party started. Offered by Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it in Ohio, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia.

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[B]

and ways to save all right Bill, did the person who text you, were they like this was a great take on a complimentary move or was this a great take on a bad move by a team?

[A]

It was neither of those. It was arguing that a thing I did not like was actually good.

[B]

Interesting, Interesting. Okay, why can't you tell us that? Oh, you don't want to name the team that you wrote about that's involved?

[C]

Yes.

[B]

Got it. I can respect that. But I hope you can respect my follow up as a Capital J journalist to try to get to the bottom of this truth. Give me your most improved teams because look, a lot of these season win totals haven't moved off of free agency in the first 24 hours. So Simon just mentioned the Rams. Who are your most improved teams right now, including the Chicago Bears?

[A]

I would throw the Rams out there. I love what they did. I mean it was attacking their biggest need outside of kicker. Kicker is their biggest need. But by the way, would you guys not be impressed if the Rams offered Harrison or not? Harrison, Butker, Brendan Aubrey. Excuse me. Very similar names in terms of length. If they offered Brendan Aubrey $10 million a year and dared the Cowboys to match, they give up a second round pick.

[B]

I would love it. By the way you talk about benefit of the doubt. You talk about benefit of doubt. Less need would get the benefit of the doubt. That that is a brilliant move, right? If, if the Browns did it, they'd be like God, the Browns idiots.

[A]

No question. But their two biggest weaknesses were in the kicking game, on special teams and at cornerback. When they lost games last year, they lost to the Eagles. They lost to the Carolina Panthers, who we mentioned earlier. They lost to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game. They could not stop bigger receivers. They were, they have a great defensive line, young, cheap, super talented. They have good safeties. They brought back cam curl which I like. They were just getting by all year at cornerback. It was one of those cases where people like me looked at the roster in September and said if they fail it's going to be because of this and not always right. But this was a case where it was because that was what cost them in the biggest games. And so I love what they did. They addressed cornerback, that trade, the late first round pick. We know Lested hates late first round picks. He loves other picks. I know that there's the famous

[B]

how

[A]

can I say this in a Disney friendly way to heck with those picks attitude towards from Les Steve. That's towards the guy. The bottom part, we're not Disney.

[B]

We, I am, we were there. But you're on, you're on a Colin Cowherd platform. He's, he's a wild card.

[A]

I, I, I am very reserved.

[B]

Yes, of course.

[A]

But, but you're talking about a Rams team that needed to get cornerback better immediately because unlike other teams where you hear about the Ravens being in win now mode when they trade for Max Crosby, the Rams actually are in win now mode. There is no solution at quarterback beyond Matthew Stafford. Who knows the Sean McVeigh is going to be there when Stafford retires. He's been rumored to go to the media for, I'm sure he has like a, you know, a 30 million dollar a year job lined up the moment he decides to retire and he's going to be very good at that. But they need to fix cornerback and so getting Trent McDuffie who's going to be the perfect fit for what they need playing inside and outside blitzing, playing to the line of scrimmage is a great fit. And then Jalen Watson given one touchdown over the last two years at cornerback in a again a very chief scheme that plays a lot of man, forces you to cover against exotic blitzes, that forces you to play in a lot of sub packages. That's what the Rams want to do. They play dimensions four times the league average rate. Last year they played dime more than anybody else in football and they would have played it more if they had defensive backs and quarterbacks specifically they felt good about. Now they can live in that world. They can play five, six defensive backs all the time the way the Seahawks did on their way to the Super Bowl. They can play coverage behind those great front four. They can run all the exotic blitzes and sim pressures they Want that feels like just the perfect fit for what the Rams needed. And then I'll give you another one. I will not go far from Los Angeles. I will go to Las Vegas where the Las Vegas Raiders did spend a lot of money. And like the economist in me, I'm not a trained economist, but the economist in me knows paying Tyler Linderbaum 50% more per year than any center in NFL history is too much money. But that's not my problem. I'm not paying the money. They don't have a significant opportunity cost because they have a ton of money to spend. They're going to have a quarterback, the first overall pick, presumably in Fernando Mendoza, who needs help. Their offensive line on the interior was a mess last year and you're bringing in a guy who is going to help you in all facets of the game. He's going to help your quarterback in protection. He's a pretty good, I think an underrated one on one pass blocker at center. Next gen stats on him is like one of the best one on one blockers and center in all of football last year and he's a great piece in the run game. Clint Kubiak plays, as we saw with Seattle, a very zone heavy moving the interior lineman, a lot of screens. You need mobile interior lineman for that offense, that scheme to work. And Linder Bob is a great fit there. On defense, they brought back Eric Stokes, who I think was really good last year behind a very bad pass rush. Clay Walker, Nakobe, Dean Moore much improves at a linebacker. Some guys who can blitz, who can play in coverage, there's still work to be done. I didn't love signing Jalen Naylor for more than $10 million, $11 million a year. They still need another wide receiver. I thought they might make a run at Mike Evans, who ended up going of course to the Niners. They still need pieces up front. They just lost Max Crosby, who's pretty darn good. But there's a, a much more realistic sense to what can we do to get better quickly, logically. And they have those two first round picks, which is going to go a long way.

[B]

Simon, the rams right now are plus 775 to win the Super Bowl. They have the shortest odds other than the Seahawks. The Raiders are 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Well, I'm not saying the Raiders are going to the super bowl, but I do love what the Raiders have done, not just in and also they get Colton Miller back, who was an excellent offensive lineman and when he went down that really changed the trajectory of their team. I think they're putting together a team that will support Fernando Mendoza, but also Clint Kubiak. Like, how often do we see these teams hire a coach and then not give them any pieces that are helpful to what they like to do? The jets never give their coaches help. Right. You got to admire a little bit of what the Raiders are doing here.

[C]

Love it. Organizationally, it just shows that, you know, they, they missed last year. Right. Pete Gino, huge swing, huge miss. They'll always have that weak one against the Patriots. That was, that was their, that was their Super Bowl. But to me, I love all these moves. I already knew, mean, you were probably going to be on their over five and a half at Hard Rock. But I, I look at all these lines and I just think to myself, okay, we have a quarterback we love, that's a winner. We have an offensive mind that seems like he's pretty smart, like caters to his guy's strengths, avoids the weaknesses. And then you see what they've done in the off season, attacking that offensive line, attacking the defense, which was to me a lost cause. It's like this, this defense is going to take three years to fix, not an off season. So that's still going to be a major weakness. But Fernando Mendoza, a winner with that team. I, I can talk myself into them getting a couple wins here in this division that everyone's so on. The Chargers, so on, the Chiefs, so on. You know what could possibly be another great year from Denver? No one's going to be thinking about this Vegas team. So I do think I like what Bill's take is like. It's a, they're a sneaky team where, yes, they've overpaid for guys, but like Bill said, it's like the guys you want to overpay with a center with a young quarterback. That's my dream scenario. Pay, Pay that man that money. I don't know if Bill agrees with that, but I, I just. The Jason Kelce, what he did for Herz, and you've heard all these other quarterbacks talk about how important the center is that can call what the, what they're going to do on the offensive line, it's just massive. So I love that take from Bill.

[A]

Yeah, I, I will say that when, when you see teams make a significant leap, the two things that almost always change are upgraded quarterback upgrade, a head coach. The Raiders could make that case. The only problem is I was sitting here a year ago and saying, yeah, I think the Raiders are going to be better because they upgraded the quarterback and upgraded the head coach and it turned out they did not upgrade a quarterback or upgraded head coach who are.

[B]

And by the way, Bill, your breakdown in the column today about the, the salaries for centers and the decision matrix that the Ravens went through for Linderbaum when his option came up and how the market has just exploded was great, but I'm, I'm surprised they didn't, I'm surprised they didn't do it last year when it's become so clear how important the center is. Like, as a Bears fan, I'm freaking out that Drew Dahlman retired. Right. And like, I know that's not on anyone's radar and it was a one day blip of a story. But I can tell you right now, the text chain that is going on between me and my kid about Drew Dahlman is intense because the centers because of Jason Kelsey have been elevated in importance.

[A]

Yeah, I mean it is a legitimately important hoarding position and it just, it's just making your young quarterback's life easier. I, I just think about Mahomes, who had, has had centers his entire career, most recently Creed Humphrey, who's the highest paid center in football.

[B]

Like you said, not anymore.

[A]

Kelsey, not anymore. But he was for a long pickup, was for a couple years. It's just like, and you think about some guys who have struggled, who have not had great centers. JJ Stroud has not ever really developed beyond what he was as a rookie, even though I think he's an old awesome player because they have had different centers and not very good centers each season for him in Houston. It really is a, I think it's something that has been underrated when it comes to evaluating players. I think it's not for true for every team. Like, I think it's nice for Tom Brady to have a good center, but like Tom Brady was able to set his own protections, reset them, get the ball out quick, read defenses like, not that young quarterbacks can't do that. It's just tougher. And so I do believe this is a position that was probably underpaid for a while and we'll see. Other teams might say, hey, this is a contract that we're not going to match, but I think a lot of guys are going to get paid based off of what Linderbaum just got from the Raiders.

[C]

Yeah, I totally agree with this. I mean it's, you don't overpay for a center if you have Matthew Stafford.

[A]

Right.

[C]

You overpay him if you got a young Quarterback. That's. That to me is nail on the head. And, you know, I don't want to be the, the negative guy, but we do need to get the teams that didn't make any moves who, who was least improved. And, you know, me and Chad joked about going back five years. I wanted what my Eagles team just did. They didn't make a single move. That's the dream. That means you've drafted really well, you're paying in house. That's where you want to be in life. But we saw last year, New England, biggest spender out of every team. The off season, they made it to Super Bowl. So now people are a little torn because it's like, okay, the cap has moved so much. Nowadays you do want to spend the off season, but there's a balance, right? If you're not paying your own homegrown guys, you are missing out. So am I. Am I overthinking? Are the Eagles missing out right now because they've made zero moves and they, they do need pieces, right? They need a tight end. They need to do something. But how? He's being very patient.

[A]

I, I would give them an incomplete. I mean, when I used to do grades for ESPN when it came to free agency and the first day grades, I'm not gonna lie, always a little more negative than people thought because those moves typically do not work out. I mean, it's just a really low hit rate for moves on the first day, the first sort of 36 hours of free agency. So it's incomplete. Because if we're sitting here a month from now and they have not done anything, that to me is a problem. They have pieces they need to add. They could add another outside cornerback. They're gonna have you had Campbell take over for Nicobe Dean. But that defensive line was not as deep last year as it was in years past. Now they've lost Jalen Phillips, they've lost Brandon Graham to retirement. They're going to have to rebuild a little bit of their depth along the defensive line. Maybe they'll sign Trey Hendrickson, be sitting here saying, well, Eagles made a big splash and just waited a day to do it. But I do think they're in a good spot. I mean, like you said, Jordan Davis, they signed to an extension. They're going to have Jalen Carter coming due for an extension. We don't know what's going to happen with A.J. brown. Obviously, that could stretch all the way until the summer. I still think he's going to stay in the big picture. So that to Me is an incomplete grade. I would say a team that I think has negatively harmed themselves is the Baltimore Ravens, where I know they traded for Max Crosby. Max Crosby is an awesome football player. But they trade two first round picks to get Max Crosby as he approaches his age 29th season, he's still going to be a good player. But you're not like the Rams, trading for guys as they're entering their peak or for a quarterback. We just haven't seen teams give up that much for guys at this point of their careers in a very long time. That is just not a trade we have seen. The Ravens needed edge. Rusher helped. They struck out on some of their guys. They traded it off Iowa, who signed elsewhere in free agency after he got traded to the Chargers. But that team now is missing two first round picks. They lost a bunch of valuable pieces yesterday. They lost Isaiah Likely, Draymond Jones, who was starting on the edge for them, Aloha Gilman, who really helped them after he came over at safety. And you just don't have as many pieces to resolve those missing holes in the roster. And I think, I look at that team and I think, okay, they draft really well usually. But now you're missing your two top picks. You can't trade down out of the first round. You're not getting those Kyle Hamilton caliber pieces in the first round who are going to be your incredible surplus value options. They're going to have to hit on all of those second, third, fourth, fifth round picks or a lot of them, you can do that. But when you have a quarterback making as much as Lamar Jackson's going to make on his new deal, as much as Max Crosby is making as Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith, Rodney Stanley's making, they have a really expensive top four, top five, top six on that roster and a lot of guys who unfortunately have significant injury histories over the last few years. And so it feels very tenuous to me. It feels like they're going to be very top heavy and that's just not a good place to be. You really have to get everything right to win with that formula. And I don't know if that's going to happen for the Baltimore Ravens.

[B]

You, Simon, before actually you mentioned CJ Stroud and you also noted in the column in terms of teams that did not do them any favor, do themselves any favors, the Houston Texans are one of them. Explain yourself.

[A]

Yeah, I, I don't know if you guys watched the, the Postseason game where C.J. stroud got the, the heck beat out of him by The Patriots in the snow. The Texans saw that and we're like, yeah, we're good back pretty much with these dudes. Felt like we were in the good spot. I mean, they, they trade away Titus Howard, who had bounced around, played some right tackle, played left guard, was expensive. I think he wants to play right tackle and I don't think Houston wants to play him at right tackle. But you're down one lineman. You trade you Scruggs, who has not worked out as a second round pick. Okay, you're down another offensive lineman. You bring back Ed Ingram, who was a okay run blocker last year, not a good pass blocker. One thing to bring him back and pay him a couple million dollars the way they did last year. In the final year of his deal, they give him $13 million a year or so on a contract. They signed Trent Brown, who was a good player when he's healthy, but he's missed significant time pretty much every single year since he won the super bowl with the Patriots. And he's getting up to $7 million. The money's not a big concern. We're just, they're putting him in and saying, okay, you're going to be our right tackle, we're going to count on you. I know they have the draft still to come, but they trade a fourth round pick for David Montgomery, who's going from one of the best situations for a running back in football to one of the worst situations in football. It just feels like they're, they're shopping in the wrong order. They're getting the running back first when you should be getting the running back last and fixing the line first. And so it just feels like there's. Last year they decided to fix the offensive line by shaking everything up, trading away Laramie, Tunsil, moving everybody around, drafting a bunch of guys, acquiring a bunch of guys. Nothing wrong with that. I could see the logic in doing most of that now it feels like that didn't work. So our new solution is just to keep everything pretty much back in place and just kind of get a year continuity. It just feels like they're like min. Maxing these strategies. Doesn't feel like there's any real like long term vision to how to build the infrastructure around CJ Stroud. And now CJ Stroud is going to get expensive. CJ Stroud is eligible for a new deal and I would bet his agent's going to be asking, even though he played poorly last year, for a contract that starts with a six for $60 million plus a season or Will Anderson, who is awesome, one of the best players in football, is going to get a new deal. He's going to be the highest paid edge rusher, highest paid defender in football. When he signs his new contract, that's going to be $45 million a year or more. So now, if you can't win or can't build a great team, when C.J. stroud and Will Anderson are making $15 million a year, how are you going to do that when they're making $105 million a year or which is where they're going to be as early as 2026? All right, two truths and a lie.

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Along these lines, not. Not that we like to be negative because I'm irrationally optimistic, but what's signing to you has been the most desperate signing.

[A]

I'll go Tennessee. Where I like Tennessee this year. I think Cam Ward was sort of like year one. Drake May ish in a lot of ways. Where you watch the tape and you're like, man, this dude is getting no help. But there is so much fun stuff. He's hitting, throws, he's making plays. I think he's really good. But they needed to add help for Cam Ward this off season. And Brian Dable was like, guys, I know exactly the place to go. The New York Giants, we're gonna run it back. We're going to go to Tennessee. A lot of people move from New York to the south as they get older. They want to be in warmer weather. I understand. Nothing wrong with that. But Wendell Robinson is like kind of a gadget player. Jamari DK was a gadget player for Tennessee last year. It's kind of marginalizing one of your more exciting young players from last year's roster, which they did not have very many of, unfortunately. They signed Daniel Bellinger. Okay. You did a blocking tight end. He's okay. Tied to one of the worst run games in football. When he was there, they pay him $8 million a year. I mean, you really needed to get a day one blocking tight end just because he knew Brian Dables. He couldn't have waited for one of the 84 other blocking tight ends who are going to make a million or $2 million a couple weeks from now to get that deal done. It just felt very. It felt like they knew we needed to add something, but they added pieces that good teams developed where they find a gadget guy in the. On day three of the draft, the way that DK might have been. They find blocking tight ends in the draft or infrequency for a couple million dollars. Tennessee paid a premium to add those guys, and I don't think they've really solved anything. They still need a receiving tight end. They still need a running back who they trust in pass protection. They still need a number one wide receiver. And maybe they get Jeremiah Love. Maybe that solves one of their problems. I hope it does, but they just. It feels like they didn't really solve anything and spent $25 million a year in the process.

[C]

I'll go with.

[B]

Oh, yeah, go ahead.

[C]

I'll go with Pittsburgh. I don't really get. I just. I don't know who they are anymore, Chad. It's. It's like you've been in love for 10 years with a woman, and then you wake up one day, you just don't know who she is anymore. And that's how I feel about Pittsburgh. They are not who they used to be. They used to pay guys in house. Now they're going out and signing a second receiver. The whole thing is so bizarre. Maybe they know they're getting Rogers back, but I didn't understand that signing like, you know, they're paying a linebacker they didn't really need. You know, it's. I had a lot of questions about Pittsburgh and the Colts. I'm totally lost with them. And they. They put themselves in a corner now where Daniel Jones is asking for real money, even though he's not a real quarterback yet. He had eight good games and he's looking for 50 million a year. Where if I am them, if they had a real owner, they would step in and they would say, we're gonna have Kyler 1.5 million and roll the dice. I would much rather that than committing three years, 50 million per year to Daniel Jones. I. I could not believe Daniel Jones's agency is asking for that type of money. I feel bad for the Colts. They're totally stuck. And I'll give you one sleeper team. I actually loved that. No one's giving any love out there. I need to Give a little love to them because Chad knows I basically went scorch earth on this organization. Arizona Cardinals, I, I basically said they should fold up and they shouldn't finish that last year after that embarrassment loss of Tennessee, the owner listened to me and all the fans. He is burning it all down. That's what they need to do. They need to burn it all down. I know people are like, well they signed Minshew, I think, and they're going to roll Berset at the quarterback again. Yes, that is exactly what you want in that division. You are five years behind every team in your division. You were in the hardest division in football. You need to do what Arizona did. So I am so happy Arizona is going this route because you know, if Manning is that guy, Manning has a great year and he's going to be the number one pick. Arizona set themselves right up for that. Them and the jets are trying to set themselves up for that. Banning whoever's gonna be the number one pick. And I think Arizona right now is the lead start because I think the jets are just a very still, I'm scared of stuff called Jetson organization. I know what they're really doing. Arizona, I know exactly what they're doing right now. They are all in on getting that number one pick and restarting this. So yeah, I'll give a little bit of love. There's no not taking the over four and a half. That's definitely an under look. But yeah, that, that to me is a team that no one's talking about them because they didn't do much. But I, I love the full on tank by them.

[A]

Yeah, I like what the Cardinals did. I think they're in a good spot. Like you said, for many of the reasons that you suggested, the Steelers just feels like they have a very diluted idea of where they stand and what they need to be. The way I described them a couple weeks ago was incurious about making it past the opening round of the playoffs. No, everyone else is trying to win a Super bowl or I guess the Cardinals are trying to get Arch Manning. The Steelers are trying to make it to the postseason and don't care about anything else once they get there. And so when you look at their moves from that lens, it makes sense. You trade for Michael Pittman who's basically a salary dump for the Colts when they signed Alec Pierce. Well, Michael Pittman's average like 10 yards of reception over the last few years, that is perfect for the Steelers. That's exactly what Aaron Rodgers wants to do. Get the ball out, quick, throw screens, throw slants, don't get hit, move on, have a nice day. They signed to Meldeen good player. Not a question about adding a good player, but they have signed veteran cornerback after veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson, Jalen Ramsey in years past and those moves typically have not been great for the Pittsburgh still has to move those guys to safety by the end.

[C]

Like Bill do you think Joey Porter Jr. Is a number one corner in this league?

[A]

He's really good. But I, I just to your point, like I think about, I actually wrote about this when Tomlin left, I went back and looked at all of those great Steelers teams who made it to the Super Bowl. Under Tomlin, under cower 21, 22 of their most used players were guys who were drafted by the Steelers or undrafted free agents who the Steelers brought in and developed. They were not trading for DK Metcalf, they were not trading for Michael Pittman. They were not importing half of their roster from outside the building. And that feels like they just have lost what makes the Steelers the Steelers, they have really talented young players. Joey Porter is good. Kendall Benton is good. Mason McCormick is good. Troy Fotano is good. Zach Frazier is good. If they just leaned into that, I think they would be fine. But leaning into that means you're going to have a two or three year window where you stink. And the Steelers would rather go 9 and 8 year after year after year and have no hope of winning a Super bowl than take that step backwards in the hopes of actually taking a bigger step forward if they can find a young quarterback and build around him.

[B]

Bill Barnwell, you get the last word. Unsharp or square this month. As a reminder, we'll still have new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday. This Thursday, one of my favorite episodes of the year. We're talking Academy Awards with our good friend Hollywood insider Michael Lasker, who knows everything about the Oscars. Then next week we got March Madness, Part two of our NFL Win Totals episode, which is rapidly changing given the free agency dynamics. This has been sharp Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. I want to thank Bill Barnwell. Go listen to the Bill Barnwell show from our friends at ESPN watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever we get your pods Rate Review. Subscribe. Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

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