The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square – NFL Offseason Mailbag – Free Agent QBs, NFL Future Bets and More"

Date: February 13, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Format: NFL Offseason Mailbag, Sports Betting Insight, Coaching Carousel Reactions

Episode Overview

This episode of Sharper Square takes a deep dive into the NFL offseason—covering team futures, new coaches, and the uncertain landscape of free agent quarterbacks. Hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter answer listener mailbag questions, openly muse about their favorite offseason bets, debate the most interesting (and worst) head coach moves, and forecast which teams are in dire straits heading into next year. Throughout, the show stays true to its sharp, opinionated, and conversational tone, blending astute betting angles with genuine NFL fandom.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL Futures: Super Bowl & Division Bets

Time: [03:24 – 12:44]

• Offseason Grind: Chad reflects on his hectic schedule post-Super Bowl and the unending nature of football coverage.

  “I don’t feel like it’s the offseason, Simon. I feel like it’s busier than ever.” ([00:47])

• Early Super Bowl Odds: Breakdown of top contenders:

  • Seahawks +800, Rams/Seahawks +900, Bills +1100, Ravens +1300, Packers/Eagles +1400.
  • Simon finds little value in clustered favorites, suggesting it's wiser to wait for midseason adjustments if teams stumble out of the gate.
  • Notable long shots mentioned: Chiefs (at 15-1), Saints (125-1), Panthers (110-1), Giants (70-1, but Simon would prefer 80 or 90-1 for health/coaching concerns).
  • Pros are reportedly nibbling at the Giants, less so the deeper shots.

• Millman on Second-Year Coaches:
  He likes teams showing upward trajectory in year one, notably Jaguars and Texans at 20-1, but expresses reluctance to trust teams like the Colts or Bears.

  “I like the second-year coaches who…I think had proven in that first year they understand how to build a system…” ([08:20])

• Simon’s Super Bowl Betting Theory:
  Pick teams with dominant O-line or D-line—it’s a consistent trend among champions.

  “If I’m making a Super Bowl future bet right now…you must pick a team that either has a dominant offensive line or a dominant…defensive line.” ([10:08])

2. Coaching Carousel: Who’s Up, Who’s Down?

Time: [12:44 – 21:50]

• Mailbag Question: Of 10 new head coaches, which do you love and which do you hate?

• Hires They Dislike the Most:

  • Simon: Arizona & Miami are “total teardown rebuilds”; “Nightmare, nightmare, nightmare. If I was an Arizona or Miami fan, I…just don’t see a future, especially in their division.” ([13:52])
  • Chad: John Harbaugh to NY Giants – Calls him “overrated” and notes his lethargic in-game decision-making & lackluster OC hires, despite his Super Bowl pedigree.

    "I'm not a John Harbaugh guy...I actually think Mike McCarthy to the Steelers is more interesting." ([14:37])

• Favorite Hires:

  • Chad: Clint Kubiak to Raiders – Highlights his dynamic playcalling and optimization of talent (e.g., Sam Darnold, expects synergy with rookie Fernando “Mendoza”), enthusiastic about offensive direction.
  • Simon: Jesse Minter to Ravens – Expects a return to dominant defense, rectifying the loss of Mike Macdonald.

    “Midterm might come in and totally change that, which is what they need.” ([17:15])

• Mike McCarthy to Steelers:
  Both uncertain—Chad sees some offensive upside, Simon thinks it’s a “bizarre hiring”; expects it will only temporarily stave off a coming regression, quipping “You might become the Browns now.” ([21:06])

3. Worst Offseason Team Situation

Time: [21:50 – 25:18]

• Contenders: Arizona Cardinals, NY Jets, Cleveland Browns.

• Chad’s Vote: Jets – “I think the New York Jets are poisonous. I think it’s one of the worst organizations in sports.” ([22:23])

• Simon’s Vote: Arizona – “I just can’t get over how good their division is in the coaches… I just feel the most hope is lost…just so bad.” ([23:33])

4. QB Market: Free Agents & Potential Moves

Time: [27:35 – 30:50]

• Uninspired Options: Free agent class (Daniel Jones, Malik Willis, Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Tua) underwhelms both.

  “Nothing here feels exciting to me…if my team got him…I guess is Malik Willis.” ([27:53], Chad)

• Sam Darnold’s Example:
  Simon calls him a lottery pick—elite or disastrous depending on the day. Success, he argues, is largely environment/coaching-driven.

  “On the right day, Sam Darnold can be a top-five guy. On the wrong day, he can be a bottom-25 guy.” ([29:45])

• Advice for QB-strapped teams:
  Vikings should trade for Mac Jones or Malik to challenge the incumbent (JJ).

5. Patriots’ Outlook & Super Bowl Hangover

Time: [30:50 – 32:55]

• A Prediction on Next Year:
  Simon expects “major regression” but notes cap space/pluses:

  “If Kraft’s not cheap and spends that money…they could easily win their division again. But…major regression.” ([31:36])

  • The line is expected to be set at 9.5; “If it opens at 10, hammer that under.” ([32:35])
  • Chad notes hype might inflate the win total opening line.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the NFL's Year-Round Nature:
  “The NFL now really is 365. It kind of never ends…even when you’re doing other stuff, you’re always thinking: am I missing something? Should I be betting some team’s futures right now?”
  — Simon Hunter ([01:54])

• On Mainstream Media’s Takeover:
  Chad ridicules how First Take runs hot NFL discourse even when it’s time to decompress:

  “…they look like they were going to throw down about who were the better quarterbacks than Sam Darnold in the NFC—Ryan Clark looked like he was about to cry…” ([04:06])

• On Philly Ownership:
  Chad shares a tidbit about the Cardinals' owners:

  “The Bidwells…how they made their money? Gambling. Owned racetracks in Chicago. They worked closely with Al Capone…” ([25:18])

• Movie Reference:

  “Bill Murray said in Stripes—‘You just never know.’” ([30:50], Chad)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• NFL Futures and Offseason Context: 00:42 – 12:44
• Coaching Carousel Reactions: 12:44 – 21:50
• Teams in the Worst Situation: 21:50 – 25:18
• Free Agent QB Class: 27:35 – 30:50
• Patriots, Super Bowl Regression: 30:50 – 32:55

Conclusion

Chad and Simon deliver a sharp-edged, high-energy mailbag episode—balancing insider betting tips, clear-eyed skepticism about overhyped teams, and honest reactions to the annual coaching shuffle. Whether it’s arguing over which franchise faces the darkest horizon, weighing in on the value of futures, or lamenting a thin QB market, this installment is full of off-the-cuff insight and rich detail for diehard NFL and sports betting fans alike.