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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Chad Millman
Guaranteed Human the official language of football is trash talk, late night group chats, memes and unbelievable highlight clips. That's why Boost Mobile brings you our new global connection plan. The first plan ever made for WhatsApp. Get unlimited data, talk and text, international roaming and calls to over 100 countries for just $40 a month. $40 price includes $5 a month autopay discount.
- [00:28]
Simon Hunter
After 40 gigabytes of premium high speed
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Chad Millman
data speeds will be lowered. Cover everywhere. Visit store or boost mobile.com for details. Hi, it's Colin Coward from the Colin Coward Podcast. All right, you know what deserves more attention? The assists. Everybody talks about the goal. A big moment that gets replayed on the highlight reels. But too often we overlook all the contributions and collabs that happen along the way. That's true in soccer and honestly true in life. Halon is shining a light on the assists. An official partner of U.S. soccer, they got a whole lineup of brands ready to deliver for you. So here they are. Sensodyne Dentist Recommended Defense of your sensitive teeth Centrum Fueling your day with science backed nutrients. Advil of course. Powerful Inflammation Fighting pain relief. Voltaren Arthritis Gel helps penetrate deep, keeps the joints moving and Tums ready to counterattack with fast heartburn relief. These are brands that are ready to deliver your essential wellness. Assists as every goal starts with an assist, learn how Halion can assist your game day goals@helionassist.com con@ Edward Jones, we
- [01:32]
Simon Hunter
believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning.
- [01:39]
Chad Millman
That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets
- [01:42]
Simon Hunter
you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so
- [01:48]
Chad Millman
you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward.
- [01:52]
Simon Hunter
The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together.
- [01:57]
Chad Millman
Edward Jones Member SIPC welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as I am for every show by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional Better Simon Hunter Ellon Simon Chad as we
- [02:26]
Simon Hunter
turn this page, after our brutal World cup loss last night, thank God we're only, what, four weeks away from our first preseason game? I think Adam Schefter tweeted. So it did what it needed to do. It killed us a month of time and we only have to make another month work. Until we have some football.
- [02:41]
Chad Millman
Look, it's been amazing and, like, I really love the collective experience that everyone's been sharing with the World Cup. It's been so much fun to watch such a brutal loss last night. Bad, bad mistakes. You know what I love about it? I don't know if you can see this, Simon. I know you're wearing World cup paraphernalia. I right now am wearing a Tottenham Hotspur T shirt. And I'm going to tell you why I'm wearing that. Because I was with my family, my sister and her family, and my wife, and our two boys went away for a few days, and me and my two guys were hanging out and we were all talking about the. And, you know, my younger son is a huge sports fan. My other son has never been a sports fan, but he's gotten really into the World cup even before he was like, I feel like, I love soccer. I want to know more about the World Cup. So we've been talking about it for a while, and then we were all hanging out while we were away, and they were both like, I wish we had a way to engage with soccer like a soccer team to root for all year long. And we settled on, you know, epl, and we decided these were the criteria. You can tell me what you think of this. We decided we had to go with a team in London because if we visit London, we want to be able to go watch the game. We decided we didn't want to do like, you know, Arsenal or Chelsea because want to root for teams that like our bandwagon. Teams that's, like, written for the cowboys in the US we wanted a team that was a lot like rooting for the Cubs or the Bears. And so we settled on Tottenham Hotspur. And I've gone through the history. I love the history. I love that Hotspur is the name of a knight from Shakespeare. I love that it was started by schoolboys hanging out together. I love that they go up and down, up and down, but they're kind of hard luck losers. So I'm all in. We're all in. Go, spurs, go.
- [04:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would say that's a pretty American team, the Spurs. So I would say you're very on brand. Most Americans. Yeah, I know. It's. It's. It's kind of funny where Americans, for some reason, gravitate towards the Spurs. I don't know if it's for their jerseys or.
- [05:02]
Chad Millman
God, that's so interesting.
- [05:04]
Simon Hunter
For a second there, I think you're gonna say West Ham, which was gonna get me really Fired up. That's a true. No one knows underground great London club. But yeah, like, you can't go wrong. My, like we talked about it, this World cup honestly has been a dream. As a fan, I wanted Americans to be engaged. They're heavily engaged. I mean, seeing cowherd do 40 minutes on, it's insane. I don't know if how long feeling following Coward's career, but you would have told Coward 10 years ago he would spend 40 minutes breaking. Never, never, never, never. So this is what I want. This has been my dream and I talked about it. It's a culture thing, right? America, you just got, you just got the crappy smack daddy by Belgium. That was the worst game we could possibly play. I wouldn't be so upset. Overrated. It just, it happens, right? We're playing against a team that has players who played in these big games before. USA doesn't have that. That's part of the growing process, part of building a culture. But yeah, I always tell Americans, the biggest thing America is missing is we don't have our Messi yet, we don't have our Harry Kane. We need a striker at top that has this God given ability to score. And you've seen it. There's four or five guys in this World cup that when they have that ball, it just feels like they're gonna score. We've never experienced that as a country. So that's. I don't know if it's 20 years away now, if it's 10 years away. Maybe it's the next World Cup, Chad. But that's what we need as a country to move forward, right? This round of 16, Buffer, we're going to keep hitting. Even if we won this game against Belgium, who is our next round against Spain? So it's, it's a tough, it's tough right now, but as a fan, seeing American embrace it, see the country embrace the World cup, it's fun. As a gambler, it's fun to bet on. And yeah, it's it. Like you said, it was just such heartbreak. I'm still not over it. Like, even last night I could barely sleep where it's like, I thought we were gonna win. I really thought, honestly, we were gonna beat Belgium. So it's gonna take me a little bit. But like right now, Pulse, like Christian Pulse, like, I'm so bitter. I'm just really bitter. I don't want to say too much mean stuff because I'm trying to be positive about it, but they just laid down like a dead dog in that game. I. I'm so mad about how they played and how it all worked out, but thank God we have football to talk about, brother.
- [07:10]
Chad Millman
You mentioned Harry Kane, former Tottenham Hotspur legend. Legend Harry Kane, Hurricane. We do have football to talk about. We are going to talk about soccer next week. We're going to have Debundo back on to talk some soccer. We're also going to have Shawn Zarillo to talk about midseason baseball. But this week, today, we are talking about some really cool NFL early prediction markets we can lean into. I don't mean prediction markets. I mean markets that Hard Rock Bat has up right now. Especially some playoff markets that we're going to give out some of our favorites on today. We have no episode on Thursday. Everyone's taking a little bit of a break. Next week, like I mentioned, we have Zarillo, we have debundo after that, folks, all football, all the time.
- [08:02]
Simon Hunter
Beginning months of football.
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Chad Millman
Chad beginning July 21st, Ben Solak from ESPN. I love the guy, you guys. Last year I mentioned his stuff on the show all the time. So I'm excited that he's going to be coming on the 21st. Then it's our top 10 QBs episode. Then we'll go into our division by division preview episodes. Get freaking ready. Because the other football leaves and this football comes in. Like I said, Harder Rock has a ton of markets out right now. Super bowl, conference and division futures. Obviously they got win totals. You can bet on every team's stage of elimination. You can bet on divisional finishing positions, exact order, props, all that. So, Simon, we don't have to be that organized here. Why don't you kick it off? Before we jumped on the show, you had some ideas. So what are some things you're thinking about? I know you mentioned the Bears. Do you want to start with the Bears? I don't know if you were just trying to sort of, you know, speak to my passions or was the Bears a real thing or what do you want to start here?
- [09:19]
Simon Hunter
Well, let's start with the easiest exercise, which is every year we look at last year's playoff teams. That should always be your baseline, right? This is what the league is. There's a lot of turnover. There's a lot of who's out. Exactly. Who's in, who's out. It's very dumb. It sounds very basic, but we have the data. Every year, three to four teams from the previous year won't make it. If you would have told me and Chad last year, the Chiefs can be one of those three or Four teams. I would have been shocked. I think Chad would have been shocked. So that's the best part about doing this is like you really don't know. Like telling me the Chiefs, the Bills and the Ravens weren't going to win their divisions last year, I would have been pretty shocked. None of them won their division. So just going back last year, the one seeds, if you remember, the Broncos and the Seattle. I don't know about you. Do you think both of them are going to make. I think both of them are going to playoffs.
- [10:05]
Chad Millman
Right? I do. But I will tell you this. I don't have a great feeling about the Patriots. I would not be like, I'm a big believer in schedule and I'm a big believer in the challenges of a new schedule. It's why when we talk about the Bears, I'm not that high in the Bears going into this season. I think Minnesota is going to be better. I think Detroit is going to be better. I think Green Bay is going to be better. I think they've got a challenging schedule. I think the same thing about the Patriots, like, obviously they got to contend with the Bills, but they're going to have a much harder schedule this year. If we're talking right off the top, I would, I would like the Patriots. I got to find their odds here to miss playoffs. I would not be uncomfortable taking a little taste of the Patriots at plus 150.
- [10:56]
Simon Hunter
That's why we're doing this exercise, people. So, yeah, the Patriots a two seed from last year. So you have them out and just. Let's just finish the afc. The Steelers. I think we both agree if we're going to kick someone out, it's got to be the Steelers, right? Yes, they're. They're at the back end. Chargers, Jaguars. You want to kick either of them out, Chad, or. No. Right. A little tougher on those two. So we'll keep it moving, keep the space going. The NFC also felt tough. It felt like the Bears and the Panthers are the really two ones that jump out right away. Yeah, you could easily see him missing the playoffs. Now packers, you know, they could. Eagles, they could. Right. But just right away in the first two I looked at was Panthers and obviously, you know, we love the Bears here. That's what I want to start with you, Chad, with your bears. They're plus 105, which again, that's the book telling you this is one of the teams on the outside looking in because what you just talked about, they. Everything broke their way. They got the two seed where you at Chad plus 105 to make the playoffs.
- [11:57]
Chad Millman
I would be betting against the Bears to make the playoffs. I am not high on the Bears. And look, I was just in Chicago, unfortunately, a close friend, his father passed away. And so I was in Chicago. And this guy, everyone who listens to the show knows my buddy Matt. His father passed away and I grew up going to Bears games with Matt and his family because they had season tickets to the Bears for the entirety of my life. And so I went to every home game when I was growing up, all through high school with Matt and his mom and dad. And his dad was such a rabid Bears fan that it was a constant conversation. I know Matt and his dad and one of his three kids who was a massive Bears fan. They would text about the games all the time. And so I had a lot of Bears talk this weekend. At one point, when his. Matt's oldest kid was eulogizing his grandfather, he started talking about his love for the Bears. And at one point, the grandson who did a magnificent job, like everyone was just so charmed by his eulogy and how well he did, started talking about like, he goes, but, you know, I think we got a quarterback now. I think we're on the upswing. This could be the year. And it's almost like for a second he lost himself and started to give a bear scatter report in the middle of the eulogy for his grandfather. But that's how much passion there is for this team in this city right now. Everywhere I went, every event I was at over the weekend with family, all anyone could do is talk about the Bears. I hate to be the guy raining on the parade, but I'm worried. I'm worried about this team. I think there's too much competition. I think they had the exact right spot last year.
- [13:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I just. I couldn't believe when I saw the number because I think that's very telling by the books because that's. I feel like that's them saying, we'll take your sucker money because that's. They know how much money they're going to get from Bears fans. It's one of the biggest fan bases in the world. They're going to get a ton of it. I'm just shocked that they think the first year. Yes, I agree they overachieved, but to me, if Caleb keeps progressing in this offense, you guys are going to have a stacked offense. My question is your defense when it comes to the Bears, like Coast and Loveland, might be a top three tight end like we'll see where Luther can be at wide receiver position. But I, I am really excited about this Bears team if Caleb can take that next step. Because Caleb all the time in the world and you saw all those comebacks last year. Can he be consistent for those first three quarters? That's what was lacking. You guys were so inconsistent for the first three quarters of those games. I mean, think of all the rabbits you pulled out of his ass. I mean, all the games came back in the fourth quarter and that was your defense too. Insane amount of turnover. So Chad's right. Between the turnover, look, the overachievement, people expect them to miss it. I wouldn't touch this one. I'll be honest. I just, I don't. I don't like the number. It's. I wanted to bet on the yes, so I'm happy to hear you say no. So I'm happy to pass on. So my first, first one that I
- [14:59]
Chad Millman
jumped out, you wanted to bet on them. Yes, to make the playoffs from plus 105.
- [15:02]
Simon Hunter
Yes. Yeah. Yes. To make the playoffs. Okay, we already talked about the Rams to miss the playoffs.
- [15:08]
Chad Millman
Wait, wait, hold on, hold on. Because we highlighted the Patriots, we highlighted the Bears. Let's. Let's dip in for a second on the Panthers because you mentioned them. We've talked about them a lot on the show already and their season win totals, but it seems like you were hinting at. I just want to close the loop on this before we get to the Rams. You were hinting at the Panthers being a team that you could see not making the playoffs. I'm looking at their odds right now. No, to make the playoffs, they are minus 300. To not make the playoffs, they're a plus 230 to make the playoffs.
- [15:47]
Simon Hunter
This correlates with a bet I want to make. I was gonna go, I was gonna come back to pitch. There's a better a team I want to bet on making the playoffs and that's the Saints. So. Okay, everyone knows we love shuck here. If we expect this, the. This Panthers team are the number one. They won their division last year, so they're playing a first place schedule. It's. It's easy to think they will take regression and miss the playoffs because of that. Who knows, right? They've done well this offseason. Maybe Bryce Young does take the next step and they do make the playoffs. But just as a betting man, I don't like those odds. Like Chad just said, it's minus 300 to miss. I want to take whenever I'm Looking at betting these, I want a plus number if I'm locking my money up for six months. That's why I go to the Saints with Shuck. The Saints have a pretty good defense. I like that in the draft they went after the wide receiver position. You know, we, we've, we've talked a little bit about, you know, it's. Who knows if Shuck's the real deal. Right. Their, their schedule last year broke very favorable to him, but he didn't make big time throws. He did get more comfortable. Kellen Moore's offense this season went along at plus 200 for the fact that they're playing a weak division. The Bucs can still win the division. The chance could steal that seven seed. I don't hate those odds. So that's what I was going to tell the Panthers. I could see them being one of the teams that move out. The Bucks are a team, they just easily could move in. I think the Saints are a sneaky team that can move in as well. And the, the Bucks don't have that great of odds. So I prefer if I'm trying to placate in this division in the NFC South. I like that. I like that. Saint sides at plus 200. That's actually come down. A couple books are showing plus 240 hard rock now plus 200.
- [17:12]
Chad Millman
I like that. I like that a lot. Would you parlay Saint? Yes. Panthers. No.
- [17:21]
Simon Hunter
I don't hate that. That's fun. That is fun. I wouldn't. I. We'll talk about it. But Chad knows I like to do. I like the divisional chalk when I do these type of parlays.
- [17:33]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [17:34]
Simon Hunter
I got burned last year, but it was the first year in five years I got burned by the Chiefs. The Chiefs were basically a lock for me every year. I like say I liked the Saints to win their division. I put them in a two team or the Chiefs. The Chiefs were just my anchor just because every year the Chiefs was in the division. Obviously it's a little different now. Right. That's. That's kind of a toss up so we can close out with that, those type of bets. But yeah, I don't know if I had parlay. You are getting great odds. But yeah, just for a standalone, I'd
- [18:00]
Chad Millman
bet that Saints one you were gonna say about the Rams.
- [18:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the Rams one just jumped out. It's plus 350 to Mitt to. To not make the playoffs. Like that's if they're plus 500 to win the Super bowl or plus 350 to miss the playoffs. That's the better option to take every time is to miss the playoffs. The odds, all the things you need to break your way, I get the hype is so peak right now. They are a studded team. They're incredible. Are they really that much better than the Seahawks, the Eagles, you know, all a couple of the 49ers, these other teams, NFC, the gap is not that wide. And the, the sports were gonna make it out that be because it's all built on hype and try to get the public to bet into it. Right. Humans have a weird condition where if The Rams were 10 to 1, yes, people would be betting it. But because it's moved up so much more people are betting it, right? They're like, I don't want to miss it more because it's going to keep moving. So to me, the odds have totally shifted them. Missing the playoffs, that's where the, the best money is. And Chad was on it last year. Stafford as much hype and much love I give the guy, he's one bad hit away. His body has been through the ringer in Detroit. He's not. He's taking hits in the Rams as well. And he's had, you know, discs popped out of his back. He's had surgeries. He's not this young stud. He's like 37, 38 years old, which in football years, he's might as well be 50 with all the hits he's taken. So I know the hype. Aaron Donald's now coming back. Supposedly, like it's just building, building, building. If you don't want to bet it right now, Maybe it gets a plus 375 before the season starts, but I just think the pros are going to come in and bet this down. I just can't see this getting more. So if you do want to bet them to miss the playoffs, you want to parlay that with what Chad just talked about. The Bears or the Panthers or maybe the Patriots. Those are all fun bets you're getting now. Instead of having, you know, 3 to 1, you can make that a 10 to 1 bet, making it a parlay. So there's a lot of fun stuff you can do with this Rams and miss the playoffs bet.
- [19:55]
Chad Millman
Who do we think before we go to the break? I just want to, I want to run through all the playoff teams and make sure we're not missing anyone. You mentioned the Chargers. You mentioned the Jags. The Jags are, I think. Let me get my glasses here. They're minus 120 to make the playoffs. The Chargers are minus 180. Look, I love the coaches for both teams. I like the quarterback for the Chargers better than the Jags. I like the, the way the Chargers, I think their path to improving is a little bit easier because their offensive line will just naturally be better because they're getting players back. But their division is so hard. And the Jags, I think their division is going to be better and they found their way to victories last year and the path to success. But I am not a buyer on Trevor Lawrence. And like, let's say the Texans are much better. We know we think they'll be better than the Colts. We think that the Jags will be better than the Titans. But there's a path where they're not the best team in their division, which could leave them on the outside looking in since that is the weakest of the divisions.
- [21:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And people forget Texas started what 0 and 3 or 04 last.
- [21:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [21:22]
Simon Hunter
And that was an insane hole to dig themselves out of, which, yeah, helped them tremendously. The Colts fell apart, which helped the Jacks tremendously. They also have a great coach in Liam Comb. I think we both really like him.
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Chad Millman
I love him. That's, that's the thing, that, that's my only hesitancy is as well, can the Liam cone power be stronger than the Trevor Lawrence power?
- [21:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And just all the weapons there too. Like, you know, I think ETN might have left though. I think he went to the same.
- [21:52]
Chad Millman
He did.
- [21:52]
Simon Hunter
You know, Tutin is a good running back. Like, they have other guys that can step in there and fill that void. So, you know, I look at this team and I think they're really talented Chargers. I know we haven't talked a ton about it, but Mike McDaniels, probably one of the bigger hires of the off season. Like this guy, for all the weird, quirky stuff he says and does, he's a great offensive mind. He's one of the best run blocking schemes in all football. He knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks. And he's already doing something with, with Herbert. That was one of my biggest gripes, which is him holding on to the ball too much. Always looking for that big play. He wants it out of his hands fast. He wants to make the one or two reads and then get it out of his hand. Stop taking these unnecessary hits because, yes, he's missing offensive lineman. His office linemen were injured last year. Herbert's whole career has been that way. He's always tried to do too much. Now, that comes from his organ days. He's just a. He's a playmaker. It's who he is. It's built into him. McDaniels is trying to beat that out of him, which I think is huge for him to try to take that next step. So I'm with you. This is really hard to pick one of those two to miss the playoffs. That's why I didn't give it out. It's. I, I can see a path for both of them. One of them is going to get knocked out by the Chiefs. If the Chiefs are who we think they are.
- [22:55]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [22:56]
Simon Hunter
They're naturally going to bump one of them. So that's a great question, Chad. If I had to pick one, I'm with you. It probably would be the Jaguars. They just had so much brick their way last year. Chargers had so many things though, against them, you only could see more improvement. You know, Minter, we'll see about their defense for the Chargers. I think they can win their play their way out of it with the offense they have. But yeah, for us and the Jaguars, I think we have both of the same question about Trevor Lawrence.
- [23:20]
Chad Millman
Let's do a quick break from Hard Rock because then I want to talk about the Chiefs on the other side. Today's show was brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. The world's biggest soccer tournament is here. Everyone is watching. National pride is on the line. Superstars chasing immortality. And for the next month, every match feels like a final. If you haven't tried Hard Rock Bet yet, there's no better time to get in the game. Hard Rock Bet is the top rated sportsbook app built to viva la Copa. And if you're ever late to kickoff, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet lets you live Bet all match long, from the first minute to the final whistle. Plus, Hard Rock Bet has new promos daily. We're talking profit boosts, no sweat bets, bonus bets and more. And be sure to check out no goals, no problem. And Super Sub 2 promos designed to give your bets insurance all tournament long. Sign up with Hard Rock Bet today in place of $5 bet. If it wins, you also score $150 in bonus bets. A winning bet plus an extra $150 to bet with. Now that's how you get this summer's party started. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today. Roll with us. Go with us. Hard Rock Bet payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe. Of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC and all over. States must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1833, playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know is a gambling problem or wants help, call 1-809 with it in Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee.
- [25:20]
Simon Hunter
Get that Amex Gold Card ready. I'm way too tired to cook tonight.
- [25:24]
Chad Millman
You read my mind. With the Gold Card, we can get up to $120 a year in statement credits. Are you feeling the Cheesecake Factory?
- [25:32]
Simon Hunter
Five guys.
- [25:33]
Chad Millman
Either of those sound good? Yes. Which one? Both pay with the Gold Card to receive up to $10 a month in statement credits at Participating Partners. Uncover more ways to reward yourself@americanexpress.com explored-gold enrollment required terms apply. All right, we talked about the Chiefs just for a second before the break. We've mentioned him a few times in the conversation. Right now, I think they are -220 at Hard Rock to make the playoffs. Obviously, there's assumptions in here. There's been a lot of reports about Patrick Mahomes progress during the off season, getting back in the field relatively quickly from the knee injury. No matter what the expectations are, this is going to be a playoff team. Are you buying that expectation?
- [26:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm drinking as much Kool Aid as I can of it.
- [26:28]
Chad Millman
It's really.
- [26:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's just a rare opportunity. It's when you come by loan the Chiefs, it's them coming off a horrible season. I mean, people are going to see it. This, this is the type of year where everyone's going to do their list, right? Top 10 teams or top 32 teams in the league. I will be shocked to see how many people have the Chiefs in their top 10. People are just leaving them for dead. And that's how we are in football. It's what did we see last happen? Like Chad just said he's not a big believer in the Patriots. I saw respected people who have thousands of listeners say the Patriots are their number five team heading into the season. It's just people can't help themselves. Everyone. It's recency bias. It's like it's just what we do. We want to move on to the new shiny toy. The Chiefs are not that at all. This is a team that we expect to take a step back right we're on the other way where it's like they just went through their season of hell. They've never been more motivated, more doubted. I really like this Chiefs team and how it's setting up for them. So, Bernie. Well, I have a bet for you the down the line. I'm not going to bet them for playoffs wise, but I have some really good odds on them right now that I've been taking advantage of for betting their futures.
- [27:31]
Chad Millman
Okay. I like that. One of the other teams that I know we've talked a lot about betting is the Cleveland Browns.
- [27:42]
Simon Hunter
What do you want to say about the Browns?
- [27:45]
Chad Millman
Like, do we want to bet the Browns at plus. What is it, 550 right now? Is that what it is? Yeah. Plus 550 to make the playoffs. We were, we. We've been comfortable betting the Browns at 200 1, at 200 to 1 to win the Super Bowl.
- [28:05]
Simon Hunter
I need. I need. I need this to be 8001 because we don't know the quarterback is. It could be Shador. And I just. I can't be putting my real money behind Shador. That bet I made a 201. That was a Desean Watson coming back and everything I've seen. Desean's looked well. But no, I. I wouldn't touch this, Chad. There's two other teams that are division I like a lot more head into the season. I like this Browns team.
- [28:25]
Chad Millman
Do you know who else is. Who else's number I like a lot? Dallas Cowboys plus 100 to make the playoffs. Why is that not minus money? Why are they not minus 120 like I was. I was fundamentally impressed with Brian Schottenheimer last year and his ability to coach that team. That the way he managed Dak Prescott, the way he managed it when CD Lamb was out, they had a terrible defense. I think they can make some of those changes and improvements. I think they. They started doing it by overhauling the staff. I just feel like that they're being a little bit undervalued at +100 to make the playoffs.
- [29:13]
Simon Hunter
It's fair and that's. That's a. That's a good price. But it's also the same thing goes back to the Bears. It's a little fishy of a line where they know the fan base. They know people are gonna be hammering that. Yes. To make the playoffs. And my first one would be in a year in which the division was totally weak. They didn't step up. And that all happened in the week one. Right. The CD drop pass against the Eagles that felt like a sliding doors kind of moment. Like they had the Eagles about Jalen Carter CD catches that ball. They win that week one could totally change their season, the outlook of their season. But they lost that game like you said it just could never get above 500 the rest of the year. And you know Shoddy did a great job as well. That defense is so bad. They have made improvements. They did go out and get guys and you know that partial straight as much crap as we gave them. It looks like it's that that was the best move for this team. That needed that a bunch of holes that needed filled. You could turn one player into three players. You're going to take that deal, right? So I don't hate the bet, Chad. I just. It's. It's because of the division where if Dart takes that next step, if Jaden Daniels comes back to play like he did his rookie year and the Eagles are still the Eagles. I don't know that's going to be as the greatest Dallas is. I could see them having another year of being 8, 9, 9 and 8. It's just hard to see them getting to a 10, 11 wins again. So that's my hesitation with Ben to make the playoffs.
- [30:28]
Chad Millman
I am so down on the New York Football Giants. I like, I don't like their team. I'm not a buyer Jackson Dart. I think that Harbaugh, John Harbaugh, unless he is a culture setting genius that we haven't observed in a way I'm not buying that there is a quick fix on this on this Giants team.
- [30:59]
Simon Hunter
I see it. I've had enough pros talk to me about it where I see where they're coming from because we talk about the time Chad, all these guys who are betting it's on the year two jump, that's everything, right? No one predicted Caleb Williams would make this number two seed. No one predicted that Drake May would be the two seed. Now you could say well we knew Patriots would be good because their schedule we can all agree on them, the head coach or anything like that. It's the same thing here with the Giants, right. They have an easier schedule even though they're in a tougher division. Like I just said, they have a new head coach. They have a, a quarterback that has had flashes of I know in the coming. Coming into it as an off career. He said he wanted to have his game revolve around the same type as Jalen Hurts. He has shown that he can run the ball, he can take hits. Eventually those hits caught up to him though, that's the issue where it's like, you can't play. Jalen hurts his style if you can't take the hits. So, you know, we've heard that he said he was going to make adjustments. He gets interviewed, whatever it was a month ago at some golf event. He says, yeah, I'm, I'm going to be smarter with the ball, but if I need to get that first down, I'm still going to get it. Which is like, again, I love to hear that, but it's not, it's not learning. He's not getting it. Where it's like, dude, you have to live not for that first down to live for the next snap. Like, I wish, you know, a guy like Eli Manic could just get in his ear about it where it's like you just take what's given to you. You don't always have to put your head down and take those hits from a linebacker that weighs 50 pounds more than you. It's just, I'm totally agreeing with you too about horrible. I just do not believe in them. I think the Ravens, one of the best organizations, all football, they draft so well. They had such a long run in his tenure of drafting so well. And you can point to, well, look how great he was as a playoff coach before Lamar. He's only struggling to playoffs. Lamar, okay, that's all fine and good. Lamar was like a two time mvp. That can't be overstated enough, right? He can show like hideaway of horribles.
- [32:49]
Chad Millman
That's what that, that's my issue is that like every time it mattered, he had the best quarterback, the best athlete in professional football, maybe one of the best athletes to ever play the position of quarterback in the history of football. And he consistently made bad strategic decisions about how to use that quarterback. And he also made bad strategic decisions about who was going to be running the offense that this quarterback played in so often. It was infuriating. Absolutely infuriating. Especially for someone who, like you and I, we would often want to bet on the Ravens. We thought like they were so sound structurally and schematically, except they would always make the wrong decisions in the biggest moments. Strategically.
- [33:38]
Simon Hunter
Lamar had a rhythm to him too. Where me and you, our easiest bets are our lives and they tell lamar played an NFC team. I think he was like 24, 2 against NFC. It was easy money. Anytime he played Pittsburgh, we'd bet Pittsburgh. He just for some reason struggled against Pittsburgh. It was these weird rhythms of Lamar. You know, I, I look at this team now and yeah, it's. It goes back to my Jalen Hurts argument about all the talent Jalen Hurts has surrounded by him. Lamar Jackson was part of the third greatest DVOA team ever in recorded history. Now if you don't know DVOA is. It's basically how we can kind of judge these NFL teams. Non biased. Right. It's just pure data, pure numbers. Doesn't matter what you see in the field. It's just strictly numbers. So this computer doesn't know Lamar is one of the greatest athletes ever to live. Right. He doesn't know that. It's just taking the DVOA score of it. The third greatest team in the history of that record keeping lost at home to a Chiefs team that Chad probably remembers this. They were horrible. They were the four seed. They limped into it. Obviously they went on to win the super bowl that year. But it just shows the difference of like we agree Harbaugh, he used to be a great coach. Me and Chad just have major questions about him right now. And so I think we're on the same page about this Giants team. But they're -325 to miss the playoffs. Like that's, that's too high of odds. There's other ways I think we can attack that which we talked about the over under much simpler way to get a cheaper number at a better price.
- [34:55]
Chad Millman
I will say Jackson Dart did throw a dart from the top of that boat onto the dude riding the jet ski some wake somewhere where he then jumped off the boat which had to be 30 to 40ft high doing flips and dives. And he looked like a young guy just having a fucking ball.
- [35:12]
Simon Hunter
And I would love perfect name Dart in New York City. The whole thing. It would be a dream scenario for fans of the league, everyone if you worked out. It just, it's. It feels like coward. A lot of people are a little too early to the party. I think it's a year away or two maybe I just, I can't get there the Giants this year.
- [35:30]
Chad Millman
All right, let's. Let's do this. Let's do a quick break right now with a word from Zbiotics and then I want to talk some super bowl stuff. Matt, Summer's almost here. You know what that means? Beautiful weather, long days, cocktails on the patio. Also, we both know that after a few stiff drinks we don't bounce back like we used to. Sometimes we've had to choose between a great night or a great next day. But that was before Matt. We tried pre alcohol Zbiotics Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered Probiotic, invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this byproduct. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Matt, as long as we've been talking about Zbiotics and Pre Alcohol, you've been a big fan, isn't that right? That's right. I'm spending my own money on this product. It is lovely. Highly recommend it.
- [36:55]
Simon Hunter
Whether you live in the drink, in
- [36:57]
Chad Millman
the state, in the union, like Wisconsin, or anywhere else, highly recommend it.
- [37:02]
Simon Hunter
It's these little bottles. You knock them back, you feel your
- [37:05]
Chad Millman
best the next day. Couldn't recommend it more. All right, well, listen, go to zbiotics.com sharpersquare to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you when you use Sharper Square at checkout, Zebiotics is backed with 100% money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com sharp or square and use the code sharporsquare at checkout for 15% off.
- [37:39]
Simon Hunter
Get that AMEX Gold Card ready. I'm too tired to cook.
- [37:42]
Chad Millman
We feelin Five Guys or the Cheesecake Factory? Both earn up to $120 a year. Year and statement credits of participating partners up to $10 each month when you pay with the AMEX Gold Card. Learn more@american express.com Explore Gold enrollment required terms apply. All right, so look, one of the bets that we've talked about every year, that is an old stat from our friend Evan Abrams, is you take the teams that are, I think, 12 to 1 or lower to win the super bowl and you round robin them. And last year it didn't work. And I think three years ago it didn't work. But in, you know, I think 11 of the past 13 years, the super bowl teams have come from this bunch of teams that are 12 to 1 or less. What's interesting right now is at Hard Rock, there's only four teams that are 12 to 1 or less, and then there's one team that is 13 to 1. So the round robin options here are Rams plus 550. Ravens plus a thousand. Buffalo Bills plus a thousand. 10 to 1. 10 to 1. Seahawks plus 1100. 11 to 1. And then the Chiefs are 13 to 1 plus 1300. Here's the thing, Simon. Normally those teams, you feel really confident, like you could see it, it would make sense. I think they're all suspect in a way. The one I actually feel most confident about is the Chiefs at 13 to 1.
- [39:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Before all this hype went on with the Rams. If you look before, it was all really close. All these teams were like 8 to 1. The Ravens, the Rams, the Bills, they're all tied now. People know my position. I only bet teams who have won Super Bowls before. I know it's. It sounds stupid, people, I get it, but it's just. It's just the way the league is. It's all culture, it's all front off, it's all ownership. All that stuff matters so much. And just you've been there before and you've won it. The odds of you doing it again, I'll go up way high. You've been there before and you've lost. Your odds go way down. Just ask Vikings fans and Bills fans, right? They've, I think they both been to four Super Bowls, never won one. It's just whatever it is, if you haven't been invited to the party, it's hard to get there. And I. I love the Bills. I love the Bills prospects out for the season. I wouldn't put them in my round robin if I was you, Chad. Yeah, I just wouldn't do it.
- [40:09]
Chad Millman
I don't feel comfortable with it at all. All these teams, to me, like the Rams, feel overhyped. The Ravens have a new head coach, the Bills have a new head coach, and something feels a little bit off. I'm not going to do the Seahawks because I don't think they're going to repeat. I don't like any of these teams in my round robin, except for Kansas City.
- [40:26]
Simon Hunter
Well, wait, then I'll give you my exactos later. You'll like that better.
- [40:29]
Chad Millman
We'll go to your exactus then. Because by the way, after. After Kansas City, it's the Niners, the Lions, the Chargers, the Eagles. You know what I would do right now? Here's what I would do. I would do Eagles, Chiefs. That's what I would do. A Super bowl matchup of Eagles, Chiefs. I want you to tell me about what you think of that when we get to your exactus and all that kind of stuff.
- [40:54]
Simon Hunter
You're locked in. Chad. That's one of the plays.
- [40:56]
Chad Millman
Is it really?
- [40:57]
Simon Hunter
Oh yeah, of course.
- [40:59]
Chad Millman
My God. All right. I'm writing that. I'm making some notes right now as we speak. All right, Eagles chief Super bowl matchup. Number one seed in each conference. Let's start with the NFC. The Rams plus 300. The Seahawks looks like it's plus. Gotta put my glasses on. 575 plus 575. Lions plus 700. Eagles plus 800. Packers plus 850. Dude, Howie is just. It's like the whole. It's like he's playing possum. Not only does it set these odds, but the dudes playing possum. If there's a team primed to bounce back right now, is it not the Eagles?
- [41:45]
Simon Hunter
Just especially when you look at all the different divisions, right? Like you think about the NFC west, brutal. You think of NFC north, brutal. Yes, the, the Eagles east might improve, but there's not a single defense that entire division that scares you. Like the Cowboys now have a defense. Giants don't have a great defense. Watch doesn't have a great defense. Even if the Eagles do take a step back with AJ I think there's so much BS last year and they still were almost the 2 seed. The 1 seed will be in grass. Like Chad's saying it's at plus 800. That's. That's a really good value. I'd much rather make that bet. That touch Seattle or the Rams, like that's just. I know last year obviously they were both fighting for the one seed. These teams tend to cannibalize themselves, right. And you've seen that time at the end like in your own division. The Bears, they, they, they basically won that second seed one year division on like the last day of the year. Like they just all these things had to break right for them to get that division. So just looking at. On paper, I agree with you. It's just the, the AFC is the same exact thing here we're going to talk about. But I wouldn't top the touch ones. Just like Seattle last year. I think Seattle at this point last year were 151 to be the 1 seed. Take the long shots, people. Don't take the chalk, everyone. We're too focused on what happened last year other than what might be happening.
- [42:54]
Chad Millman
Always.
- [42:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [42:58]
Chad Millman
So you like the Eagles? There's anyone else in there that you think is worth any value?
- [43:04]
Simon Hunter
I only have one. I just thought the Eagles, out of everyone that jumped out, to me they're the best odds. Like you could do the Bucks at 25 to 1. Like that's crazy odds. But it's just, we've seen it. Baker, he takes hits. I can't see him playing a full season that you need to play a full season to get the one seed.
- [43:19]
Chad Millman
All right, let's talk about the AFC then. What are you looking at?
- [43:23]
Simon Hunter
I mean, right away top it's business usual. It's Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, which I thought was really funny by the sportsbooks just because, you know, I think the Chargers still favorites to win the division. But the Chiefs are better odds to be the ones who just shows like professional money how it dictates these markets and where they think the value is at. And you know, for me, those top guys have no value. Now you can look at Houston, their next one up at 10 to 1.
- [43:49]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [43:49]
Simon Hunter
Still wouldn't do it because right away it jumped out to me was Cincinnati. Cincinnati is 11:1.
- [43:56]
Chad Millman
So. Interesting.
- [43:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I know I'm not the biggest Zach Taylor guy, but I look at that team where they, they've improved defensively. Like that's all I really asked for is them to go and breathe defensively. I think the general public's starting to see the nerds are starting to see what I saw last year, which is those sacks blindly baiting, blaming that Bengals offensive line was foolish. It was. They were not this bad offensive line. That's. Oh, this is why dribble does Joe bro to succeed. No Joe bro succeed because he holds on the ball too long. He takes unnecessary hits and it's been following him his whole career because he has that bad offensive lines. He had to do try to do too much. But I think coming in this year, when someone goes and say, hey, you had the number one most time in PAT and when we were when you dropped back to pass in the pocket in the league, like that's not made up metric. That's a real metric between you and Joe Flacco. You need to figure it out because Joe Flacco didn't get hurt. Joe Flacco is your 10 year senior. He took some hits, but he was obviously would throw the ball at the dirt. He didn't take those unnecessary hits constantly, which Joe needs to work on. But them and the Ravens, they're not that much different. And the fact that the Ravens are the number one favorite to be the number one seed and the Bengals are down here 11 to 1. My model has them literally neck and neck. So just going based off values. I have them both at plus 600. That means I'm getting a free plus 500 right now in this Bengals team. So, like, again, I'm not the biggest Bengals believer. My model jumps out to that. It's like I have to take notice and say, okay, I might be a little too hard on Joe Burrow and Zach Taylor. This is good. This is a good number. This is something I need to bet. So I did bet it at 12 to 1. I bet it 11 to 1. I would keep taking it until it drops down to below 10 to 1. I think it's a good value right now on this Bengals team.
- [45:32]
Chad Millman
I like it. I like it a lot. I was going to ask you about the Bengals in their playoffs, and I didn't like the numbers. I think, like, to make it, they're minus 225 or something like that, which just feels to me too bloated. But I like this opportunity on the Bengals at 11 to 1, because I agree with you. I think we did see that the issues for Joe Burrow last year were him holding the ball too long. And I think that started to become a message, too. That became sort of a narrative. Oh, wait a second. Maybe it's not all on their. Their offensive line. And I do think also they focused on defense and improved their defense a little bit. So they're sneaky, they're quiet. They're not getting a lot of conversation. Like, all the conversation is about, you know, the Ravens and a new coach or Patrick Mahomes coming back or, you know, the trade of Miles Garrett to the Rams and will Aaron Donald come back. Not a ton of conversation right now about the Cincinnati Bengals. We've reached the point in the show where I do. You've teased this a couple times. You got some exotic NFL playoff bets.
- [46:37]
Simon Hunter
This one will be my first one will be my Simon says. So right off the top. Gotta go back to Chad. Chad already knew it. Chad read me like a book. Eagles to beat the Chiefs 101 Super Bowl.
- [46:50]
Chad Millman
Wow.
- [46:52]
Simon Hunter
So if you're new here, people, that means if I bet a grand, I can win 100k on that bet, which you're like, that will never happen, Chad. Chad knows. We know two years ago, your buddy Simon here put it around 10 to 15k, a bunch. A bunch of different matchups. And the. The biggest one I lean into was Eagles versus Chiefs matchup. And I basically bet it was like 5k to win 300k, people. So I know it sounds crazy. You're like, this will never happen.
- [47:19]
Chad Millman
Now.
- [47:20]
Simon Hunter
I'm giving them better odds. Now I only need to bet $3,000 to win 300k. So I just, it just shows where two year, two, three years ago, the Eagles and Chiefs were just so much more hyped. They're getting even better odds now. I'm telling you, these teams from those two three years ago, no different my model, these are just as good a teams. It's all about health. That's all football is. That's why we want to bet these crazy odds. Because we need a lot of luck to obviously get there. We need health. Both these teams stay healthy. I think they're both top two, top three teams in their respected conferences. So right there jumped out. If you want to do the flip side. The Chiefs to beat the Eagles, same thing at Hard Rock 100, 101. We just talked about the Bengals. I like, people know I like betting repeat Super Bowls and it happens. It just, I mean it sounds crazy but every year it happens. Patriots, Seahawks, repeat Super bowl matchup. Like these things that the NFL is so cyclical. It's so repeatable. Since I Bengals to beat the Rams 100 to 1. I just again, I'm looking at 101 bets the Rams, you really can't find good odds on them. But to fade them to have them losing super and get some pretty good odds. So that was 120 to 1. It's now dropped down 101. Bengals over the Rams and Super Bowl. So those are exact, those, you know, if you want to do three or four of them, put you know, five bucks on each. They're just really fun bets to come back to in the playoffs where it's easy to hedge. Right. If you, if you want to hedge the NFC championship, you want to hedge the AFC championship game, you're gonna have such crazy odds. You're gonna have a lot of opportunity to do that. So that's why I like making these type of bets.
- [48:50]
Chad Millman
Listen, I owe you a chad's choice and I was going to do the Bears to miss the playoffs and like I can't do that. Like at the end of the day I can't have one of my season long bets be against the team that I am going to be living and dying with all season long. Like I can't emotionally hedge a season long. But I think you really got me on the Saints. So my chad's choice is going to be the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200. I like the situation with the South. I like a little bit of regression from the Panthers and their schedule. I think we liked what we saw from Kellen Moore and Tyler Schuck last year. So I'm going with the Saints as Chad's Choice +200 to make the playoffs. What do you think of that? I always like feedback.
- [49:47]
Simon Hunter
I love it and I say the only, only one I really disagreed was of any of the points you even gave was your Patriots take where I was all aboard fading the Patriots but just that everyone I talked to in the Miami organization and the jets organization is that four free wins and if they split with the Bills that means they have five wins potentially just in their division. So that's what's so terrifying with them, the Bills where I can see either of them winning that division and obviously being a top seed just because they have potentially four free games this year. Like it just seems all purposes the jets really don't want to win this year and Miami is right on board with that. Like they know this next upcoming class of quarterbacks. It's insane. It's one, it might be one of the best classes I've ever seen coming out. We'll see how that happens. A regular season right with college football. But as we sit here right now, the Jets, Miami, they are truly trying to tank and they're being open about it. So I was right there with you. I was full blown ready to fade this Patriots team but the fact that you're bringing in A.J. brown who we'll see about his health but if he's healthy with that defense with Drake may hopefully taking that next step. If you're a Patriots fan, I don't know how they don't get the 10 wins and 10 wins we've seen the past. That's good enough to get the seventh seed in the afc. So I, I get where you're coming from. I wanted to be on the fade the Patriots bandwagon as well. Chad, just at that price. I, I can't do it for them to miss the playoffs.
- [51:06]
Chad Millman
All right. So our Simon says presented by Hard Rock bets Eagles to beat the Chiefs in the Super bowl at 100 to 1. Our Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock bet New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200. That is our show Reminder, no show on Thursday. Simon and I are back on Tuesday. MLB mid season betting with Sean Zarillo. This has been sharp or square part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube or watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us on Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. When you look at Kelvin Benjamin, guys, he's 6 5, he's 245 pounds, he's
- [52:02]
Simon Hunter
probably a Popeyes biscuit away from being a tight end. And he has trouble getting separation. This is an iHeart podcast.
- [52:11]
Chad Millman
Guaranteed Human.