← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Bets: Bills-Broncos, Niners-Seahawks, Texans-Patriots, Rams-Bears
00:41:30
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
Guaranteed Human new year.
- [00:06]
Chad Millman
Same extra value meals at McDonald's. So now get two snack wraps plus.
- [00:11]
Simon Hunter
Fries and a medium soft drink for.
- [00:13]
Chad Millman
Just $8 for a limited time only. Prices and participation may vary.
- [00:17]
Simon Hunter
Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska and California.
- [00:19]
Chad Millman
And for delivery. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the show that makes Square sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [00:47]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing?
- [00:49]
Chad Millman
Listen, I feel like we ended the weekend the way we started the weekend. Being on the wrong side of a game that included missed fourth and goal opportunities, momentum swings. We had the Steelers plus three and a half. We fell to one and four in the contest for the opening weekend of the playoffs. I gotta tell you, Simon, things were going so badly for us this weekend that in the final 2 minutes and 35 seconds after the Texans score to that pick six to make it 30 to 6. And at this point I think they had scored something like 21 points or 14 points, whatever it was, off of defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The plus three and a half is out of reach. But you and I had both bet the under 39 and a half and the under 38 and a half. We've been telling people to take the under 38 and a half. I just assumed that at 36 points with two and a half minutes left, there was enough time that the Steelers were going to have to punt or go for it on fourth down. They had all three timeouts. The Texans were going to end up kicking a field goal and we were going to lose that total too. That's how I felt. We had been. Things have been going for us this weekend.
- [02:07]
Simon Hunter
We didn't get the job done. We came up short. Please don't talk to me about moral victories that'd be disrespectful to those guys in the room. Well, Chad, some professional advice. You just flush it, buddy. I'm sorry you just relived all that once again. But I don't care whether we go 4 and 1, 1 and 4. I sit here Tuesday with the exact same feeling. Can, can I win again this upcoming week or can I do better than the week before? So yeah, sucks. But just after just the same feeling, after winning week, you move on. That's. That's kind of the way, the way this business is. It's. What have you done for me lately? So, yeah, bad week. But keep it moving. It's. We're on to the vision around now, brother.
- [02:42]
Chad Millman
Last night you were in your feels and I felt like we were sort of connecting in our emotional distress. I feel the same way you do right now. I was only sharing my feelings last night. As soon as the game was over, I'm like, time to move on. I woke up feeling fresh. I did the peloton. I took my dog for a walk. I had some calls. Moving on. It's like I'm. I'm clean. I'm back to being as arrogant and confident as we can possibly be. For the season, we are now 52 and 43 thanks to our 1 and 4 week looking at the leaderboard in our Sharper Square pro football Bickham contest, a new solo leader has emerged. Last week's number one, Nikki Abs has fallen to second.
- [03:33]
Simon Hunter
Some guys have it all.
- [03:35]
Chad Millman
I know, right? Reynolds 311 stands alone at the top at 23 points with just three more slates to go. Good luck to everyone. Playing all right. As I said, tough wildcard round for us. But as Mike Tomlin would say, last.
- [03:52]
Simon Hunter
Week was last week, this week was this week. Next week will be next week.
- [03:57]
Chad Millman
I feel like that's. That's what you just said. It's time to move on. This is our Tuesday divisional round show where we'll view the entire slate. As a reminder, we'll have our normal Tuesday and Thursday show through the end of the week, through the end of the season for this week. We will do our pre kickoff episode on Saturday morning with our official context contest picks, a Sunday night review show after the Rams Bears game. You know, we assume that'll be around 10pm Eastern. I, of course will be in Florida prepping for the Indiana Hoosiers Miami Hurricanes national title game. Hoping I could stay awake for the 10pm Show. Don't forget you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video. While you're at it, you can also subscribe to Sharper Square Apple pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. I don't know, Simon. It's an interesting final grouping of teams. There's no one we can say is totally dominant offensively and defensively. Teams have dominant units, but the teams with the most dominant units say Seahawks defense, Broncos defense, Texans defense, have inconsistent player quarterback. Teams with the best quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, have inconsistent complimentary units on defense. Feels like it's wide open right now. Wide freaking open. Let's get into it. Buffalo 1 Point Road Favorite at Denver this is Saturday, January 17th. The first game 4:30pm Eastern. Total was 47.
- [05:37]
Simon Hunter
Back in it now big time.
- [05:40]
Chad Millman
It is Fandomonia reminder the playoff contest includes all totals for all games sides and totals for all games. Dude, this line's actually bouncing around. There were times when it's been Denver minus one. So what do you think?
- [05:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Jack, give me a Denver Bronco. Simon says plus one. Brother. I want to play a game. Simon says.
- [06:05]
Chad Millman
Simon says Denver Broncos plus one. Simon says. Presented by Hard Rock Bet the Denver Broncos plus one. Weird game. I want to hear your theories on this. I feel like this is the power of Josh Allen. He's a road favorite against the top seed in the conference. He has no proven number one wideouts against the best defense and one of the best corners in the NFL. And his defense is suspect and it's definitely a coaching disadvantage. Give me your take.
- [06:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and we talk all the time about you're always thinking what are they going to make these lines with Josh on? Because like we've talked about, he's the best. And I was honestly shocked to see them open this as a favorite. But you know the books, they know what they're doing right. They're trying to take money here on this, this Bills team. And I do think this line is going to flip to the Broncos being an overwhelming favorite. So I'll give it a stat. Now that's probably going to be useless in a couple, couple days if they do flip. But I just want to talk about historical this is for the Broncos. They're, they're a home dog as the 1 seed. I'm sure you remember the last time this happened, Philadelphia with the dog mask at home against Atlanta. Oh yes, obviously Eagles won that game outright. I think they're plus two and a half dog.
- [07:25]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [07:25]
Simon Hunter
Before that it was a 49ers. They were three and a half dog against New Orleans. The 49ers won that game outright and then before that in 96, 97 Panthers home dog of three and a half against Dallas Carolina won that game outright. So you know, I'm not the only one of those data points. This is a huge, huge, glaring trend flasher for a lot of professionals. So I do think this line will flip just off that. But matchup wise, you kind of nailed it. Chad. It's defensively, the Jaguars are a very talented team. What's their one thing you could say is lacking a pass rush. That is not something that's lacking at all for Denver, they get after the quarterback. And you know, Josh Allen, as great as he has been this year, you've seen some games that he has struggled is when he has a ton of pressure around him, right? He's not let it not even set into that. And the quick throws, which he, you know, dominated last week with, right? Shakir, I think he had 12 catches, 12 targets for like 80 yards.
- [08:23]
Chad Millman
I was gonna say for. I think he 12 catches for negative 75 yards.
- [08:28]
Simon Hunter
That's why I love Jo, because it's like he's taking exactly what the defense was giving him and he kept attacking a guy who's not a good tackler and he kept getting that 5, 6 yards, which we talked in the NFL. That's a huge deal. You saw last night, the Pittsburgh died because they were living in second and 12, third and twelves. Like, if you're just. If you're not in third and five, third and six against good defenses, you're dead. Especially teams can pin the ears back. So just the matchup wise too, it's hard for me to find reasons to. To think the Bills be able to stop this Broncos offense that, you know, they are streaky, but you just nailed it with talking about Sean Payton. Sean Payton on an extended time with extended prep. And, you know, the numbers back up my exact sentiment, which I looked it up and it's like, okay, that all makes sense. Sean Payton, his career 4, 0 straight up in the playoffs when he's extended prep time, that's since 2003. So he's never lost in this exact scenario of having more time to prep. Now he is 2 and 2 against the spread. So I guess that does matter in some aspect. But my only fear is right now is just like last week where every, every game I got the best of the number and I had zero to show for it, right? You got the 10 on the Rams dead. Got the Jags as a dog that flipped. That was dead. Got Green Bay as a dog that flipped. That was dead. So I am worried about this one because the public has just been crushing it. The Bills are going to be just like those other teams, like the Bears last week and the Bills last week. The public is going to hammer Josh Allen on the road here for good reason, right? All they look at is the quarterbacks. It's going against Bo Nicks, who in his career, he lost his first playoff game to this exact same team, and Josh Allen. So, yeah, for me, it's another one. I'm leaning into it, right? It's. I'm Taking the best of the number of the books given to me. I know the pros will come on the Broncos as well. And I get it. If you just want to bet loosely, just trust your gut. I totally understand the going the bill side, but it's, it's not a winner. It's not a long term winner. Like I said, you. You're getting a dog here that the public doesn't believe in and the professionals do. And that usually is a nice spot to be in so public coming off of five and one week, Chad, I think they're gonna get crushed this week. Denver Broncos.
- [10:39]
Chad Millman
Well, look, that's the trend, right? Like, it never stays that way for the public. So we'll see. We'll see how it goes. I'm just looking up right now. Let me see. You know, what do we got here? We got.
- [10:53]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I can hit you with a ton of stats if you want. Like, I know people like it because again, we gave it out. If you didn't listen to me and Chad last week, you blindly bet the stat, bet every dog in the wild card round and bet every under. Both went four and two.
- [11:05]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [11:06]
Simon Hunter
So it's. We make it very complicated for ourselves. But like I, that's why I give these stats out because it's like these people make tons of money just betting these stats that have held true for 26 years now. Like it's going back to 2000.
- [11:19]
Chad Millman
So, yeah, I was just gonna say somehow the only two teams that didn't cover his dogs were two of the teams we had in the contest, which is just a remarkable bit of. And if you would ask professional betters going in, they might have said the two teams that like the most as underdogs were the Chargers and the Steelers. No, what I was just checking was any betting percentages. I saw a slight lean on betting percentages on the, on the Broncos right now. What is your take on the total? 47 to me. This feels, to me. We've seen both teams give up a ton of points and we've seen both teams score an egregious amount of points in the second half. In these games, I tend to want to play unders, and we're going to talk about that in a second. But just, just like eyeballing, this feels like an over to me.
- [12:15]
Simon Hunter
That's fair. I'm not gonna have a play on until maybe Thursday, maybe Saturday morning. I'm just not gonna grab early lines here without knowing anything about what the weather is with the condition. Because if like you're saying if it's 30 degrees, clear skies. Yeah, I'm with you. Why would you not take me over here? But if it's in the teens, maybe some weather, some wind. Yeah, I, I immediately like that. Under. Both these teams are happy to lay into the run. We already know that. Right. And both these teams are happy to burn the clock. So I'm, I'm in no rush to play this one. But like you said, it opened at 47 and a half. 47. It's already back down to 46 and a half. So not. Not that shocking. See the professionals coming in there because we talk about playoffs, everyone gets tight. It's just the way it is. And that's why I think it. What was 20 to the overs to start on Saturday and then four straight unders. Because it's just. That's the normal way usually is. Right. Everyone's just so tight. So yeah, it's. It's a game where I can hit you with all the trends. It's. It's not that great of a spot technically for Denver if people are bullish on this bills team since 2003 divisional round, these fa. These favorites because they're going to be. They're going to flip to a. Be a favorite. I believe the Broncos basically at home in the divisional round. 33 and 44 against the spread, so 43%. That's 3 and 7 against the spread since 2020. That obviously fits Seattle as well if you want to make it. I mean, we're gonna get the Seattle game. It's even worse for Seattle if you're a 7 point favorite, as in the divisional round off a. By 17 and 26 against the spread, so 40%. So once again, another just a blind fade spot. So I know I'm asking a lot here with Denver, but it's, it's, it's. As a dog, I think that's a good number. Just because you're getting ahead of the movement.
- [13:59]
Chad Millman
Well, that's why it's. Simon says. You know what I mean? Listen, Simon. Anyone who listens to this show or watch the show knows I'm an Indiana University alumni. Who, Who? Who? Hoosiers. Go iu. Fight, fight. Fight. Everyone also knows that this Monday night, the Hoosiers, the unstoppable Indiana Hoosiers, are playing the Miami Hurricanes in the 2026 College Football Playoff national title game at the fabulous and famous Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The best place to stay, not too far from where the game is happening is at the unbelievably Cool. Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida. The guitar Hotel at the Hard Rock totally lives up the hype. I live up to the hype. I know this. I've stayed there, I've played there, I've eaten until I could eat no more there. I go all in on the good times and the good food at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino. And of course, they got the full casino. They got the incredible sportsbook. It's going to make you want to skip the Florida beaches. Thanks to our friends, our very good friends at Hard Rock, I'm going to be in town for the Indiana Miami national title game this weekend. I'm going to be roaming around the casino and the sportsbook, soaking it all in. If you see me, please say hello when I'm not there. If I happen to leave at any point, I'm going to be using the top rated Hard Rock bet app so I can hammer the Hoosiers because it is the only, only legal sports betting app available in the state of Florida. Tons of betting markets already live for the game. Get excited because on Thursday show we're going to have a very special guest is going to help us break down the college football title game. Dude, if you can't tell, I'm freaking out a little bit.
- [16:18]
Simon Hunter
I'm really not thinking about the next game. I'm thinking about cracking open a beer.
- [16:23]
Chad Millman
Saturday, January 17th, 8:00pm Eastern San Francisco at Seattle. Seattle, you just noted seven and a half point favorite. The total is 45 and a half. Simon Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the under 45 and a half. Are you sure you want to do this?
- [16:45]
Simon Hunter
Are you willing to make a choice?
- [16:47]
Chad Millman
What choice? We can't run from who we are.
- [16:51]
Simon Hunter
Sharp dudes can just see it, you know what I mean?
- [16:57]
Chad Millman
We do have a very recent comp for this game they played two weeks ago. Seahawks dominated 113 to 3 to win the number one seed. And that was when the Niners had George Kittle at tight end. And how often have we seen Simon, like a good team loses one of its best players and for the rest of that game, they adjust. They're playing on energy, they're playing on adrenaline. The Niners pulled it out, but they had to use just about every bag in there, every trick in their bag to get past the Eagles. Seahawks.
- [17:30]
Simon Hunter
Look.
- [17:33]
Chad Millman
It'S arguable that them, the Texans, the Broncos are the most dominant defense left in the playoffs right now. We talk about sort of imbalanced units against Mike McDonald's defense. The Niners had a 38 success rate. 173 total yards, three points. It was the lowest of Kyle Shanahan's career. And I'm stealing this directly from Brandon Anderson, our buddy at Action Seattle currently ranks number one in defensive DVLA top two against both the run in the pass, top seven versus the middle of the field. Motion play action under center looks all core Kyle Shanahan strengths. And on flip side, it's not like Seattle's offense is a shooting star. So taking the under here, am I the only one who is resisting this pride?
- [18:28]
Simon Hunter
People of Seattle, listen to me. We are not barbarians. Don't hate it. I'll be there with you. For me though, I definitely feel more confident about taking the 49ers here on the spread. Just seven and a half feels like an egregious, egregious number. And yeah, I get it, they did dominate that last meeting. But I mean, come on, everything went wrong for the 49ers in that game. Like we talked about, just everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. And you know, I just have so many questions about Sam Darnold. He's not played well.
- [18:59]
Chad Millman
Totally.
- [19:00]
Simon Hunter
It feels like since week 11, week 10 and now it's the biggest stage, the most pressure and you know, I give, I have tons of stats. I mean Evan Amers had a really great stat. It was basically teams that didn't make the playoffs last year that make the divisional round and now they're their underdog. Which is exactly what this Niners team is. They're 2914 against the spread in this exact spot. So 67% which just shows like I talked last week, these certain teams get underrated by the public and this fits that description, right? A team that aren't they. Didn't they get lucky against the Eagles? I think a lot of people will be thinking that way. And I also could see the Seahawks being a huge moneyline teaser play. Right this is. I think that the 49ers can cover. I would honestly be shocked if they do win. I just. This defense is so impressive. The Seahawks team, I do think it's gonna be a lot to overcome, but seven and a half and a back door always being a possibility with this Niners offense. I like that especially where you go through it and you know, a Purdy against the Seahawks team, which I know people don't believe it, but in his career he's kind of owned this team in this matchup on the road. Brock purdy in his career 40 against the spread straight up against the Seattle team winning by almost 10 points per game in this exact spot. So he's kind of been the owner of that stadium, the Seattle team. Whether it's been Gino or McDonald coaching this team, right. He's done well against them on the road. And, you know, the more I look into it, it's more like, okay, if this comes down, that would make more sense than ever. Getting up to eight, eight and a half. So to me, this is another one where it's like you just got to grab the number. It's. This feels a game is going to close at seven, six and a half, right? It's just, I can't see this getting up to eight, eight and a half. There's just nothing about this Seahawks team I think is going to keep pushing this number up. And I just see the professionals and the public alike eventually coming on this niner side because it's just. It's too many points. It just is way too many points. The third time these teams have met, right? Divisional teams playing for the third time, we know it's going to be a close game. I mean, like, look, again, we just saw that Bears, Green Bay game. These teams divisionally just play these insane close games. That's what tends to happen. So I am shocked, honestly, the books open this much. And one more stat from our guy Evan that I loved. Divisional round, wild card round. Kyle Shanahan, his career is now 70 straight up, 6 and 1 against the spread in the divisional round is an underdog, a road dog. He is 30 straight up in his career, Shanahan. So I mean, if you want to sprinkle it on the Seahawks, I mean, the, the 49ers, I'm sure me and Chad will probably have done our money on Ron Robin, but this, this feels like it's going to break a lot of people's teasers and stuff like that. It's just, I think most people are counting out this 49ers team and that's what the spreads reflecting.
- [21:47]
Chad Millman
Look, I think what I'm thinking about for the total lines up with what you're thinking about for the spread. To me, this is a 24, 21 game, right? It's. It's not going to be up and down, you know, fast paced, high scoring it. And if there's a big total which you're getting over a touchdown, it is. That lends itself to a much closer game. So it would play into the theory that the Niners would cover in this game. So it could Be interesting. Simon. We couldn't make two of our picks offer the same game because we get. We get a chance at the, at the total in the spread. Interesting theory, though, on the Niners. It's interesting. Look, I would love nothing more if the Niners continue to advance and then lose to the Bears. But if I can't get the Bears in the Super Bowl, I'd really like the Niners because it's basically my only, my only future left after everyone else has been bounced out.
- [22:46]
Simon Hunter
So that's your dream scenario. If you could get. If you're a Bears fan, you can get the Niners at home in late and when it's one degree out. Yeah.
- [22:54]
Chad Millman
Although to be honest, I've seen that movie, you know, when the Bears had won the super bowl the next year. I think it was the next year, the year after we get the Niners in January in the NFC title game and we lost like 27, three. I was at that game. It was cold.
- [23:11]
Simon Hunter
That Joe Montana.
- [23:13]
Chad Millman
It must have been Montana. Yeah, it had to have been.
- [23:16]
Simon Hunter
There you go.
- [23:18]
Chad Millman
Can't beat him.
- [23:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [23:21]
Chad Millman
Down by the river down by the banks of the river. Sunday, January 18, 3pm Eastern. Houston is visiting the New England Patriots. The total is three or the. The spread is New England three, totals 41. It opened at two and a half. It's still a two and a half. A lot of books jumped up at Hard Rock at this point. Simon, how much are we coaching, handicapping, handicapping, coaching in the playoffs? Because right now no one is better at this than Mike Vrabel. Like just nobody. The guy just has this team locked in and understands exactly what they're great at and then how to get the most out of them. Hard team. Hard team to bet against right now.
- [24:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I hate this game because immediately it's like I feel like again, if we were coming off a hot streak, I would be hammering this game. But Texans plus three, a total of 40. I could not believe the total was that high or the Texas were plus three and a game. I'll be patient on because we were so early in the week here. I don't need to make a planet yet. But yeah, it's. I mean, we just talked about Drake May. That Chargers team was going to be the best defense he had faced this season. You saw him struggle. The Texans are a level way above that Chargers team. This is another level we're going up here with this Texas team team defensively. So as much as people are just crushing CJ Coming off that game, we talked about that's. That's the Pittsburgh voodoo, baby. That like that game was going just according to plan. A guy, I think they should have said he might have three fumbles in his career and he had two in a quarter. Like, that's just what happens when you get to Pittsburgh. I don't know if it's the same type of voodoo in the Patriots. And you know, if Christian Gonzalez is playing, if Nikos Collins is playing, okay, I guess they cancel each other out. They both might miss this game. Yeah, that's true. I think that favorites Houston, where you've seen Higgins, Christian Kirk, he can do it with these random receivers because the design of their play is they find these huge gaps and that's what CJ Strength is, right? Pushing the ball downfield to these guys, streaking wide open. And you know, the Patriots now lose the number one corner. I feel like that's a way bigger deal than them losing Nico Collins. I've just seen C.J. be able to make other guys be number ones where Pagers defense, we've talked about it. Gonzalez shuts down half a field. He is exactly what you look for in a number one corner. So big, big injury. Watch here for these. Both these teams. But yeah, the stats people know. I think we gave our last week Drake may New England as a favorite three points or more. Drake made his career 3110 straight up 9 and 2 against the spread. And like we said before, that's against we think poor competition. We don't really buy into that. And you know, we ate it last week. But that was really about Herbert not showing up. I mean, his defense held them to 16 points. Herbert gave us a nothing burger. I don't see CJ having two really bad games in a row. And my, my fear is that I gave you out those numbers last week. C.J. that was his first road win. I think I was Houston's first win on the road. Texans organizationally, right. That was the first time and I think seven tries Houston had been on the road and they lost every time. They finally broke through. And I know they were a sleepy pick for a lot of people on super bowl run because of the defense. I think it's another spot here where it's like, okay, the better defense with the better quarterback is a dog. I mean, coaching level. I know we have a lot of props of Rabel. I don't think it's that he's that big of a gap. The Miko Ryan is a genius to me, especially defensively. So, yeah, like I said, I'm not trying to fall into a trap here again because it's like I can't believe they're giving us plus three. I want to talk to other pros, see what they're senior. But my early condition, even I should say what I'm betting right now. I've already bet the plus three and I bet the under right away. But I. I will let you know on Thursday if I'm missing something here. If, you know, I'm walking right into it once again. But I could not believe it. I couldn't believe they opened Houston at this big of a dog. It's to me, one and a half, two. That made sense here. So that's why I'm just not going to put a ton into it because I'm worried that there's something I'm missing. It feels too easy. Chad.
- [27:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I. I'm baffled by this line. I'm baffled by this game. It's a really hard one to figure out. What you just said about the Steelers. When C.J. was throwing that interception again in the red zone towards the goal line, I was thinking to myself, this is classic Steelers football. Muck it up, muck it up, muck it up. Whatever Tomlin does, he's so patient as a coach. I think Vrabel is a brilliant coach, too, but I don't know that the Patriots have the same defensive weapons across the board that the Steelers do. They were getting a really good pass rush on CJ that was screwing up a lot of what he was trying to do. Really tough game. I definitely like the under more than I like the side at this point. So I'm curious to see how the sharp calls go on Thursday and we'll get a better sense of what people are saying about this game. Let's get a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by.
- [28:29]
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
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- [28:41]
Chad Millman
Hard Rock Bet is giving you a.
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- [29:47]
Chad Millman
Payable and bonus bets.
- [29:49]
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [30:22]
Chad Millman
The main event the NFL knew, I knew when they were like teasing at the end of the game last night what the schedule was going to be. They could have just said whatever the schedule is, we know the Bears are going to be in the prime time Sunday spot because the country is enamored with Midwestern football right now. The country is enamored with the Chicago Bears.
- [30:47]
Simon Hunter
Chicago, Chicago that title in town. Chicago, Chicago. I will show you around. I love it.
- [31:00]
Chad Millman
The country is loving the accents from Chicago, the kitsch of Chicago, the characters of Chicago. The way this team is lighting a fire under the city and connecting with this with Whitney City right now is amazing. They're four point home underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams. The total is 50 and a half. Stafford is going into the cold with a sprained finger. He said it's fine. The line moved from four to three and a half back up to four. The betting percentage is heavy on the Bear so it's hard for me to know right now. Simon, is this wise guy money? Is it just the public coming in on the Bears? I feel like we've said this 13 times this season. Is it a sell high spot for the Bears?
- [31:52]
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
I don't know man.
- [31:55]
Chad Millman
I don't know. My My inclination is honestly the Rams because it just feels like when everything is zigging we have to zag. But then I don't want that to be the reason why I'm doing it.
- [32:10]
Simon Hunter
No. And I've had a couple people ask about should you, should I just throw my model in the playoffs? Because yeah, it's like Moneyball. Is it built for the regular season and try to explain to them, no, I'm not picking the worst players at the cheapest price and trying to make it work. It's nothing like Moneyball. It's. I should do well in the playoffs. That was a total outliner anomaly. This game scares the of me though. Just because like last week I had. The Rams is way big favorite. Same here. I have them at seven and a half point favorites here in the model. I'm like you, I don't feel that way at all. If this was seven and a half, I'd be hammering the Bears. Yeah, kidding me. And first glance at this number, it's like, well Bears, all their games are close. Whether they win or lose, they keep their games close. Like shouldn't I just be grabbing this one? And we talk all the time about playoffs. You're looking for unique spots and this defines as one my first unique spot of the day. Bears home underdog, wild card round, not divisional round. Do you remember the last time that happened, Chad?
- [33:09]
Chad Millman
No, I don't.
- [33:12]
Simon Hunter
The Eagles, they beat, they beat Atlanta with Nick Foles and they beat the Vikings Case Keenum at home. I mean so that's, that's we're talking about historical here. Like these one sees these two seeds, they're just never home dogs in these rounds. And you know, I, I, if I was a Bears fan or a backer, it's like well good no one believes in us. Unfortunately for you guys. Chad just told you every, everybody's believing you all the more because we've all seen those numbers, the reports, right? It's supposed to be an arctic freeze. I mean Stafford like you just had on a bad finger and in the cold, hard to grip a ball already now with a bad finger. That has to be a big deal. So I am lost with this one. I will give you unfortunately another good Stafford stat. Stafford unique in the sense that he has never lost a playoff game as a favorite in his career. So he's 4, 0 in his career straight up as a favorite. That's going back to 2000. That's the best mark of any quarterback in the NFL. Like no one's been better in the Playoffs as a favorite than Stafford, which to me when I looked that up was shocking because it's like we just think of him wasting 10 years in Detroit and like those are all. That's all Rams numbers. So it just shows him and McVeigh as favorites. They've earned it, right? The books, they know what they do given that type of. That type of padding. Especially like last week, that was crazy looking back that they were a ten and a half point favorite. But it's a tough one to get a read on. So, you know, another game I'll be patient on the side in the total where, you know, if it is an arctic blast, if it is zero degrees and they're hanging a 50. I mean, if we want to combat the magic that is Caleb Williams, maybe we just go the first half under, right? I mean take 26. Get. Get away from what we know Caleb can do, which is light a team up in the second half. And we've seen this Rams team, they give up big plays just like we saw with Bryce Young.
- [35:01]
Chad Millman
Totally.
- [35:01]
Simon Hunter
I mean, even. Even against bad teams like Ariz. They had moments where they had wide open guys streaking out against them. They just. They are susceptible. They don't have a good number two corner.
- [35:11]
Chad Millman
So play with their food.
- [35:12]
Simon Hunter
They do. It's really a great number hung by the books because if they hung it too high, I think they would have been showing their hand here a little bit. I really think they hung up perfect number here. So Chad said, I think early, early money, public and professionals, they'll come in on the Bears. I think people like me that do want to take the Rams potentially, maybe I just see if I can get a three if the books are nice enough. But at the end of the day, if it just. If I can't do better than three and a half off the butt double. But I honestly want to be on the Bears, but I'm just fine. Give me a reason. Give me a reason, please. I gotta find it. I gotta talk to some pros and see if there's a. If there's smart, smart reason to be on this bearish team other than what we just talked about, which is all their games are close, but this is. At what point do they run into an actual legit contender, which is this what this Rams team is? So it is tough for me right here. And I've also had a couple of people what's it like back at teams off miracles through it. There's not a laugh like from my own personal experience, I just told you about that Vikings game. The Vikings. That was the digs against the city.
- [36:12]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [36:13]
Simon Hunter
I guess there's a letdown after the miracle game, but I don't think that's.
- [36:17]
Chad Millman
Applicable for this team because every game is a miracle.
- [36:21]
Simon Hunter
You can say that, Chad. You guys reacted like, holy, we just won the Super Bowl. I mean, let's be serious here. Come on. You got it.
- [36:29]
Chad Millman
Yeah, but we reacted the same way the other time we beat the packers and we've reacted the same way when we beat your coach Raiders.
- [36:35]
Simon Hunter
Taking a shirt off and falling over himself on the field the last time he beat the Packer.
- [36:40]
Chad Millman
Oh, he got knocked down.
- [36:42]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. He couldn't even.
- [36:42]
Chad Millman
He got back up again. Never gonna let you down.
- [36:47]
Simon Hunter
Like I said, I want to. I want to find a reason to buy, Buy this bearish team. But right now I am leaning heavy towards this Rams team.
- [36:53]
Chad Millman
Look, the. The total is ticked down from 52 to 50 and a half. I would grab that under. It's going to be.
- [37:00]
Simon Hunter
You think it's gonna be like Arctic blast, what they're predicting.
- [37:02]
Chad Millman
I just looked at the weather right now. It's predicted to be a high of 18 and a low of 9.
- [37:07]
Simon Hunter
That's cold.
- [37:08]
Chad Millman
So I would. I would grab the under. That's the highest total we're seeing of the weekend so far. It's going to be a night game in Chicago. It is going to be bitter, bitter, ice cold. I would not be surprised. Definitely like the under in the first.
- [37:22]
Simon Hunter
Half, like, yeah, that's only been on.
- [37:25]
Chad Millman
When we get off this call being conservative for sure. So, yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna grab that one, too. But yeah, I don't. I don't know that we have a consensus on this one.
- [37:34]
Simon Hunter
I like, again, these are good lines. Both those last two games are really, really tough lines. Chicago, Chicago, Chicago, Chicago. That's my hometown.
- [37:54]
Chad Millman
All right, so right now, just to recap a little bit, Simon says, was Denver plus one, grab it because it's going to flip to Denver minus one. Chad is on the Panthers. I mean, not the Panthers, on the Seahawks and the Niners under 45 and a half. Simon also likes San Francisco plus seven and a half. I think we're most tempted by unders right now in these games. We're going to need more conversation about Houston as an underdog and the Bears as an underdog.
- [38:23]
Simon Hunter
Find any trends if that. If that holds true. I know wild card round. The trend is obviously the unders. I don't know about divisional round. I'll try to Find out more info on that as well.
- [38:30]
Chad Millman
We're tempted by the.
- [38:32]
Simon Hunter
We love the Unders, right? We're like 40 to the unders this week.
- [38:35]
Chad Millman
We like the Unders and we like the Under. First half in the Bears ramp. So go grab that when you're done listening. Before we go, any initial bets on Indiana and Miami? The line opened seven and a half. It's now up to nine. Indiana minus nine in the national title game. Anything you're hearing, anything you like. Ooh, Kurt Zignetti. Signetti.
- [38:58]
Simon Hunter
Nothing gets people excited like winning. It's pretty simple. I win.
- [39:03]
Chad Millman
Google me. Now you're messing with them.
- [39:11]
Simon Hunter
I mean, you know, I'm a sucker for history. So I. I would say the pros obviously hammered the 7 when it opened. Not a shocker. The Hoosiers, like you said, it's now moved almost two points. A couple books. It's popping nine. I'm gonna take the adjusted line. Like, I've already bet the -13 and a half on the Hoosiers. Just feels like if they're gonna win this game, it's just what they've been doing. They're gonna roll and blow out this team. And I'm sorry to say, Chad, I'm definitely throwing a bet on the the Hurricanes money line. Like this is David and Goliath and. Which is crazy to think, but you guys are going for. Is it 170 or 16 0?
- [39:44]
Chad Millman
16 0.
- [39:45]
Simon Hunter
Never been done. So they are going after history with a quarterback that, you know playing at the highest level you can imagine. I know the comp for him is Sam Bradford. He's Sam Bradford with 25 pounds of muscle and much wider shoulders. Like every. I just. I'm falling in love with Mendoza kid. So it's tough for me to say this Hurricane. The Hurricane things, but I figure the same way, we've all seen this movie before, right? So.
- [40:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [40:12]
Simon Hunter
Can they have a moment against the best D line they're going to face all season? Yeah. I'm excited for our Thursday show here. What the pros are saying. But from the pros, I've heard they're. They're the guys who have hammered the Hoosiers team. They've been on it all. Playoff run. They've been on this team and they love them. And there's other pros who are just laying in the grass waiting. Give us the 10 on the hurricanes. That's. They're all saying. They said let the. Let the public keep betting this up. Let all the parlays and the teasers from Sunday and Saturday tie in with the Hoosiers. Money line. Get this up to 10. So every, every pro I know the likes of Hurricanes are being super patient and they're like me. It's like, at what point do you have to go the other side? But like I said, if the Hoosiers win this game, it feels like they roll and they blow out. They're just not a team that plays with their food. Like we've talked about. Other teams, they, they roll you, they dominate you, and they put their full weight on you. So great. Great number.
- [40:58]
Chad Millman
By the books every time they have the ball at 00. Every single.
- [41:02]
Simon Hunter
So true.
- [41:03]
Chad Millman
That's the signetti way.
- [41:04]
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
All right.
- [41:05]
Chad Millman
This has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with more of the size, more of the totals that we're finally zeroing in on. We'll do our head to head battle brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [41:33]
Simon Hunter
The road to the super bowl. Filled with unexpected twists and turns, detours and shattering collisions. But the final prize makes the trip worthwhile. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.