The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square" – NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Bets
Air Date: January 14, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Theme: Deep-dive breakdown of the NFL Divisional Round playoff betting lines, sides, totals, sharp & square perspectives, key data, and early leans from two seasoned bettors.
Episode Overview
This episode of "Sharp or Square" centers on the upcoming NFL Playoffs Divisional Round, dissecting betting angles, sharp-vs-square trends, and key insights for all four games: Bills-Broncos, Niners-Seahawks, Texans-Patriots, and Rams-Bears. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter combine professional betting experience and data-driven analysis to recommend sides and totals, discuss weather, injury factors, and historical trends, and debate whether lines are influenced more by sharp action or public money.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Recapping Wild Card Weekend & Contest Standings
- The hosts lament a rough Wild Card contest record (1-4), with missed opportunities and "bad beats."
- Memorable quote:
“Please don’t talk to me about moral victories, that’d be disrespectful to those guys in the room. …You flush it, buddy… It’s what have you done for me lately."
– Simon Hunter (02:07)
- Memorable quote:
- Chad describes rebounding with classic sports-better resilience:
"As soon as the game was over, I'm like, time to move on. I woke up feeling fresh. I did the Peloton. I took my dog for a walk."
(02:42)
2. Big Picture: This Year’s Playoff Parity (03:33–05:37)
- No dominant, all-around team; most have glaring weaknesses.
- Defensive juggernauts (Seahawks, Broncos, Texans) lack reliable QB play; top QBs (Allen, Stafford) lack defensive support.
- “Feels like it’s wide open right now. Wide freaking open.”
– Chad Millman (05:24)
3. Betting Breakdowns by Game
A. Buffalo Bills (-1) at Denver Broncos
Saturday, Jan 17, 4:30pm ET | Total: 47
- Simon says: Denver +1 (06:04)
- Simon is emphatic: "Give me a Denver Bronco. Simon says plus one, brother." (05:57)
- Market Analysis:
- Line has flipped back and forth (“there were times when it's been Denver minus one” – 05:39).
- Books seem to want Bills money due to Josh Allen’s popularity. Historically, 1-seed home dogs have performed well.
- Notable trend: “Last time this happened, Philadelphia with the dog mask at home against Atlanta... the Eagles won that game outright.” (07:12)
- Matchup Analysis:
- Bills have a clear coaching disadvantage, questionable D against a Broncos team that pressures well.
- Both hosts see Allen’s quick throws mitigating pressure, but Denver’s defense as the better matchup.
- Sean Payton’s record post-bye: “4-0 straight up in the playoffs with extended prep time. Since 2003.” (08:22)
- Betting Resistance:
- Simon cautious about too much public Bills money: “I am worried about this one because the public has just been crushing it. ...the Bills are going to be just like ...the Bears last week. The public is going to hammer Josh Allen.” (09:40)
- Chad notes a “slight lean” on Broncos betting percentages but senses a tight market. (11:19)
- Totals Talk:
- Lean toward under only if weather is harsh.
“If it’s 30 degrees, clear skies…why would you not take the over? But if it’s in the teens…immediately like that under.” (12:14) - Pro bettors “blindly bet every dog in wild card round and every under… both went 4-2.” (11:05)
- Divisional round home favorites trend poorly: “33-44 against the spread…3-7 ATS since 2020.” (13:47)
- Lean toward under only if weather is harsh.
- Summary:
- Grab Denver +1 before market flips. Wait on total for weather.
B. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Saturday, Jan 17, 8:00pm ET | Total: 45.5
- Chad’s Choice: Under 45.5 (16:45)
- “Seahawks dominated 13-3 two weeks ago… Seahawks… top two against both the run and pass, top seven versus the middle of the field, motion, play action, under center… all core Shanahan strengths.” (17:30)
- “Seattle currently ranks number one in defensive DVOA.” (17:33)
- Spread View:
- Simon leans heavily Seahawks +7.5: “Just seven and a half feels like an egregious, egregious number.” (18:27)
- History favors underdogs: “Teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year but made divisional round—underdogs are 29-14 ATS in this spot.” (18:59)
- Brock Purdy’s dominance vs. Seattle: “On the road, Brock Purdy in his career 4-0 against the spread straight up against Seattle, winning by almost 10 points per game in this exact spot.” (19:48)
- Shanahan as road dog: “3-0 straight up in his career, Shanahan.” (20:59)
- Game Flow & Totals:
- Chad sees a low-scoring grind: “To me, this is a 24-21 game. It’s not going to be up and down, fast-paced, high scoring.” (21:47)
- Both agree under and dog are valuable leans, possibly both for contest picks.
C. Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)
Sunday, Jan 18, 3:00pm ET | Total: 41
- Spread: Houston +3 is Simon's early take but with “caution.”
- Coaching Edge:
- Mike Vrabel’s remarkable post-season coaching: “Nobody better than Mike Vrabel. The guy just has this team locked in.” (24:09)
- Matchup/Market Analysis:
- Simon baffled by the line: “I could not believe the total was that high or the Texans were plus three” (24:09)
- Both teams potentially missing key players (Gonzalez for Pats, Collins for Texans—a wash).
- Chad: “I’m baffled by this line, I’m baffled by this game. It’s really hard to figure out.” (27:27)
- Millman leans under more than side.
- Stat of Note:
- Patriots as ≥3-point favorites with rookie Drake Maye: 9-2 ATS. But Texans defense is a major test for Maye.
- Simon bets Texans +3 and the under early, but wants to “talk to other pros”—he fears “it feels too easy.” (26:12)
D. Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 18, 7:00pm ET | Total: 50.5
- Chicago Mania:
- Hosts revel in how Bears are the country’s “prime-time darling” (30:21)
- Spread Analysis:
- Simon’s model makes Rams -7.5, but gut says line is right; can’t pull trigger on LA yet.
- “If this was 7.5, I’d be hammering the Bears… First glance, it’s like, well, Bears— all their games are close.” (32:09)
- Chad: “Is it a sell high spot for the Bears?” (31:52)
- Angle of Uniqueness:
- Home dogs in divisional round are historical rarities.
- Stafford is 4-0 straight up as a playoff favorite. (35:01)
- Weather looming large: “Supposed to be an arctic freeze. Stafford with a bad finger in the cold has to be a big deal.” (33:09)
- Betting splits skew toward Bears, but could be pros and public alike.
- Totals:
- Under worth a look, especially first half: “If it is an arctic blast… I would grab that under. That’s the highest total we’re seeing of the weekend…” (36:52)
- No Consensus Yet:
- Both will wait on weather, injury updates, and more pro input.
4. College Football National Title Game: Indiana vs. Miami Preview (38:34–40:57)
- Chad expresses extreme excitement for his Indiana Hoosiers, who are -9 over Miami.
- Simon: “I’m a sucker for history…I’ve already bet the -13.5 on the Hoosiers… but I’m definitely throwing a bet on the Hurricanes moneyline. This is David and Goliath.” (39:10)
- Pros hammered Indiana at -7; some waiting to bet Miami at +10 if number rises.
- Both agree: Indiana is not a team that “plays with their food”—if they win, it’ll be comfortably.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “It’s what have you done for me lately... bad week, but keep it moving. We're on to the divisional round now, brother.” – Simon Hunter (02:07)
- “You’re getting a dog here that the public doesn’t believe in and the professionals do. …That usually is a nice spot to be in.” – Simon Hunter on Broncos-Bills (10:12)
- “Seattle currently ranks number one in defensive DVOA, top two against both the run and the pass, top seven versus the middle of the field, motion, play action, under center— all core Kyle Shanahan strengths.” – Chad Millman (17:33)
- “If you see me [at Hard Rock], please say hello. …I'm going to be using the top rated Hard Rock Bet app so I can hammer the Hoosiers.” – Chad Millman (15:05)
- “If it is an arctic blast... I would grab that under. …That’s the highest total we’re seeing of the weekend so far. It’s going to be a night game in Chicago, it is going to be bitter, bitter, ice cold.” – Chad Millman (36:52)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:48 – Wild Card contest recap; emotional aftermath
- 05:24 – Playoff field: No dominant teams
- 05:39 – Bills-Broncos line movement analysis
- 06:37 – Historical angle: Home 1-seed underdogs (and outcomes)
- 10:12 – Why sharp money leans Denver
- 12:14 – Buffalo-Denver total talk; weather impact
- 16:45 – Niners-Seahawks: Chad’s under pick
- 18:27 – Simon’s strong Seahawks lean at +7.5
- 20:59 – Shanahan as road dog in playoffs
- 24:09 – Texans-Patriots: Coaching, line, and total analysis
- 31:52 – Rams-Bears: Is it a sell-high spot for Bears?
- 33:09 – Home dog rarity/historical comp, Stafford playoff stat
- 36:52 – Bears-Rams: Weather, totals, and first half under focus
- 38:34 – College Football National Title Game betting preview
- 39:10 – Simon gives out both sides on the title game
Summary Table: Hosts’ Early Leans
| Game | Spread/Total | Lean/Advocate | |-----------------------|--------------------------|----------------------| | Bills at Broncos | DEN +1 | Simon (strong) | | | O/U: 47 | Wait for weather | | Niners at Seahawks | SEA -7.5, O/U: 45.5 | Chad: Under; Simon: 49ers +7.5, Under| | Texans at Patriots | HOU +3, O/U: 41 | Simon: Lean HOU +3, Under; Chad: Leans Under, wait for sharp action| | Rams at Bears | LAR -4, O/U: 50.5 | Waiting on info, leans Under, esp. 1st half; could end up on either side|
Final Thoughts
- The show ends with both hosts acknowledging the unusual parity in the field and the need for patience on late-week developments (injuries, weather, sharp moves) before finalizing bets.
- The only “bet now” recommendation is to grab Broncos +1 before the line flips. Most other bets merit waiting for updated information.
- Unders are a recurring theme—especially in cold-weather games.
For those looking to make sharp, data-backed wagers or just to stay in the loop on divisional round betting narratives, this episode is packed with actionable insights, historical context, and humor rooted in real sports betting pain and experience.