The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square – NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS Part 2"

Date: March 19, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Overview

In this "Sharp or Square" episode, hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter dive into NFL season win totals for the 2026 season, focusing on all teams with totals below 10 wins. With part one having covered the obvious contenders, this episode is all about the value and pitfalls in the rest of the market, factoring in dramatic offseason moves—coaching hires, surprising trades, and major roster shakeups. The hosts scrutinize each division, share sharp betting insights, and debate where to find edge or avoid traps.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Offseason Headlines & Team Moves

[03:32 – 09:36]

• Blockbuster trades/cancellations:
  • Ravens’ Max Crosby trade debacle – considered both shocking and unprecedented.
  • Baltimore signs Trey Hendrickson after trade falls through.
  • Tua Tagovailoa relocates to Atlanta; Kyler Murray to Minnesota; Justin Fields moves to KC, possibly as a starter if Mahomes’ recovery falters; Jalen Waddle is sent to Denver.

"How do you not like the Vikings move, right? ... It's just, it's only upside." — Simon Hunter [05:54]

Analysis:

• Minnesota with Kyler is seen as a high-upside move, while the Ravens’ quick trade backtracking is called out as startling but shrewd.
• The NFC North evolves with dynamic quarterback changes: Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff.

2. Win Total Bets: Bottom Dwellers

[13:21 – 15:53] Chad and Simon rapid-fire through the lowest totals:

• Arizona (4.5): Under – Both agree: no motivation/incentive to win.
• Miami (4.5): Under – Consensus on tanking for top pick.
• Las Vegas (5.5): Under – Simon: "Yeah, it's an under." Potential for slight improvement, but not enough.
• Jets (5.5): Alt Under – Chad prefers even the alternate (3.5) under.

"There are so many ways the show affects our lives negatively. Like if we could just quit, that'd be fantastic." — Chad Millman, on podcasting woes [18:50]

3. Middle Tier Teams: Divisional Debates

[15:53 – 23:42]

Carolina (6.5): Over (cautiously), but Simon warns, "That's the fishiest of fishy lines. Why is it not 7.5?" [17:13]
Cleveland/Tennessee (6.5 each):

• Simon: Pros like over on Tennessee (coach bump), but under on Cleveland in a tough division.

Atlanta (7.5): Over. Tua's upside and offensive weapons make this tempting.
New Orleans (7.5): Over, but high-variance. Curious to see how Tyler Shough develops.

"I'm gonna take the over 8.5, over 9.5...and also the under 5.5, under 4.5 on New Orleans. High-variance team." — Simon Hunter [22:25]

Giants (7.5): Under – Chad points out it's a "Harbaugh bounce" line, but Simon thinks it's mispriced and loves the under.
Washington (7.5): Split – Chad leans over due to easier schedule and Daniels' return; Simon is under due to division strength and questions about improvement.

4. "Respect the Uniform" Teams: Are They Being Overrated?

[28:32 – 42:12]

Dallas Cowboys (8.5): Lean Over

• Chad: Sees promise in defensive moves; Simon: Market is pushing it up; would take under if line climbs.

"Shockingly smart move from Jerry there...CD Lamb, is he even a top-5 receiver?" — Simon Hunter [33:18 / 35:33]

Indy (8.5): Under —

• Daniel Jones’ health a huge question mark.

"That could easily drop to 6.5 or 7 by kickoff...Bizarre, bizarre line." — Simon Hunter [37:27]

Pittsburgh (8.5): Under —

• Culture shift, regressing defensive core, and QB uncertainty.

"This feels like a Respect the Uniform number." — Chad Millman [39:12]

Tampa Bay (8.5): Lean Under/PASS —

• Baker's health is a swing factor; doubts about running game and late-season collapse.

5. Contenders or Overvalued? The 9.5-Win Crowd

[42:12 – 53:56]

Chicago Bears (9.5):

• Chad: "My head is telling me the under, but how do I not want to root for the Bears?" [42:20]
• Simon: Cautions against overvaluing last year's cardiac wins; recommends patience.

Cincinnati (9.5): Under —

• Simon: "Feels so inflated...It's only about Joe Burrow, who never plays a full season anymore."
• Burrow's regression and lack of roster upgrades highlighted.

Denver (9.5): Over —

• Both like the over, especially after Jalen Waddle addition and O-line strength.

"Very, very confident. Denver can get to 11, 12 wins." — Simon Hunter [53:19]

Houston (9.5): Lean Under —

• Defense can carry them, but high total for young core. Jacksonville (9.5): Lean Under —
• Skepticism about schedule and true improvement. New England (9.5): Lean Under —
• Chad: "I'm just seeing a team that is playing a first-place schedule..." [53:56]
• Vrabel's coaching could get them close; market moving to the over due to weak division.

6. Most Aligned Bets — Where the Co-Hosts Agree

[57:37 – 58:06]

• Colts: Under
• Giants: Under
• Bills: Over
• Broncos: Over
• Bengals: Under

"No. Like it. Nailed it, right? Yeah, I think we found mostly agreement. That makes me happy." — Chad Millman [58:06]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Minnesota's Kyler Murray gamble:

  "It's only upside...This will be the best coaching of his career." — Simon Hunter [05:56]

• On Ravens' trade drama:

  "It's embarrassing for the Ravens...But you don't trade those picks if there's a knee issue." — Simon Hunter [06:32]

• Wide receiver rankings:

  "Is CeeDee Lamb a top-five receiver?...I might put JSN or Puka number one." — Chad Millman [35:04–36:05]

• Cleveland QB skepticism:

  "Why are people so excited that Deshaun Watson could all of a sudden be what he hasn't been in five years?" — Chad Millman [19:33]

• On variance in New Orleans:

  "I'm gonna be taking the over 8.5, over 9.5 and...the under 5.5, under 4.5." — Simon Hunter [22:25]

• Denver optimism:

  "Very, very confident. I think they're another team that get to 11, 12 wins." — Simon Hunter [53:19]

• Bearish on Bengals:

  "This feels so inflated to me. I don't understand it...It's only about Joe Burrow." — Chad Millman [44:53]

Timestamps: Important Segments

• Key Trade/Signing Discussion: [03:32 – 09:36]
• Lowest Win Totals: [13:21 – 15:53]
• Division-by-Division Rundown: [15:53 – 23:58]
• Cowboys & Skill Player Debate: [33:01 – 36:48]
• Giants/Commanders Deep Dive: [23:58 – 26:53]
• Contender Totals (9.5 group): [42:12 – 53:56]
• Final Consensus & Best Bets: [57:37 – 58:06]

Takeaways

• The NFC North and AFC North are most volatile, with significant quarterback turnover and win totals reflecting both uncertainty and inflated expectations.
• Sharp under bets: Bengals, Colts, Giants, Steelers; Popular overs: Bills, Broncos, Cowboys (with skepticism if line rises).
• Big themes:
  • Overreacting to recent team success (or lack thereof).
  • "Respect the uniform" bias in win totals.
  • High variance in teams with young/unknown QBs.
• The hosts recommend caution early in the offseason, watching for line movements, roster news, and coaching hires before locking in bets.
• Memorable banter and humor throughout, laced with sharp betting angles:

  "That's the fishiest of fishy lines. Why is it not seven and a half?" — Simon Hunter on Carolina [17:13]
  "We were in agreement on the Bengals. That makes me sad, but it's sharp." — Chad Millman [53:56]

For Listeners Who Missed It

This episode is a masterclass in NFL futures betting strategy: funny, detailed, and loaded with actionable insights as Chad and Simon cut past the noise and conventional wisdom to identify market inefficiencies in season win totals across the league.

Hosts' Picks in a Nutshell:

• Best Unders: Colts, Giants, Bengals, Steelers
• Best Overs: Bills, Broncos, Cowboys (carefully)
• Teams to Avoid/Monitor: Carolina, Tampa Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, New England

For full betting advice and the sharpest takes, check out the full episode or follow the Sharper Square podcast feed.