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- [03:06]
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- [03:11]
Chad Millman
to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Chad.
- [03:29]
Simon Hunter
How we doing my brother?
- [03:33]
Chad Millman
We're gonna talk a little NFL today because we're going to part two of our NFL win totals episode that we started a couple weeks ago with part one. Last time we did all the NFL win totals for teams that had totals of 10 or more in 2026 at Hard Rock Bets. Again, these were just released in the last few weeks, so that's why we're talking about them now. Today we're going to cover everybody else. So far we've talked about like in Buffalo over ten and a half. I also took Carolina over six and a half. I believe you called that quote a trap, unquote. And that was before they made any signings. We followed up on that a little bit with Barnwell. Some of the stories that have been driving the news for the NFL since we did part one. So we'll see if these change anything for us. Obviously the Max Crosby trade that was then canceled, Baltimore followed it up by signing Trey Hendrickson. TUA has gone to Atlanta. He will be the starter presumptively. Kyler to Minnesota. So we know we're going to want to talk about Minnesota. Like Kevin McCarthy has to be so excited about that. Pittsburgh added Michael Pittman and Rico Dowdle. Justin Fields is going to be backing up and maybe starting in Kansas City to start the year depending on the homes recovery from his acl, Christian Kirk and Mike Evans to San Francisco. You know I always love looking for an excuse to bet on the Niners. Dallas traded for Sean Gary from Green Bay at defense. Defensive end Dallas Goddard re signed with Philly. They also acquired Rick Woolen. They got rid of Reed Blankenship or at least he walked away. And then just this week on Tuesday Jalen Waddle traded from Miami to Denver. Before we get into anything Simon I just listed off a lot of movement which one of those when you heard about them and since you've heard about them most piques your interest is most exciting to you. Do you think was the smartest play?
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Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think we're aligned. How do you not like the Vikings move? Right.
- [05:55]
Chad Millman
That was it. That was it for me.
- [05:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. It's just, it's only upside. Like we all know what the the deal is with the kid. He has tons of talent. It's just that can he put the work in and this will be the first time in my mind that he'll have probably the best coaching of his career. So I and just someone that's gonna be super hard. I'm just gonna tell him like hey, your last team gave up on you. I think he's gonna tell him that every day. And being like you're not this untouchable guy now. Like you're here, your other team's paying for you to come play for us. That's how much they gave up on you. So yeah. Love that move for Minnesota. And you know we talked about the Ravens move. I, I, I mean they're, it's a bad look, it's embarrassing for the Ravens organization. But totally agree with the totally agree with the move. Like if you find something that tells you hey in two, three years this guy might need another surgery on this knee and this might be a problem going forward, you do, you fail the physical and you don't, you don't trade those picks away. So you know, if you're the Browns and you don't draft well anyway. Sure. Or I shouldn't say the Browns did draft well last year but you know all these teams aren't great at drafting. Sure. Trade away your first round picks. The Ravens feels like they're pretty good at drafting first round picks. So that was a bizarre movement. Now they get those picks backs and get Trey Hendrickson. It's. It feels like a great move for them. And as an Eagles fan that's still hearing all the rumors about A.J. brown, the A.J. brown to the Raiders for Max Crosby deal is now a real possibility. So that Max, crazy, I think, does not feel done yet. Like, I know that he went back in the next morning. I think it was like 8am he was in and rehabbing at the Raiders facility the next morning. Like, he's just, that's the kind of guy he is, right? He didn't miss a beat. So to me, if you're the Raiders, you know, you can, you can hold on to them. It's not that bad. But I think in the dead they want to move him for a piece that's going to help their franchise quarterback. So that was, I don't know you. That was by far the most shocking thing of the whole off season. Like that. That never happens. We're sending a trade like that to first round picks. Chad, I was truly shocked and I can't remember another time this has happened.
- [07:53]
Chad Millman
Well, look, that was the shocking move to begin with was getting rid of the first two picks because it was. It's just out of character for the Ravens, right? They have had a history of drafting really, really well in the first round and then rescinding the trade was even more out of character for the Ravens and for really just how the NFL operates. But going to get Trey Hendrickson, to me, I loved it because Max Crosby to me was a two to three year trade, right? He's 28, 29. We talked about this when, when we talked about should the Bears be giving up DJ Moore in a first round pick to go get Max Crosby. It's because you feel like you're in the window with the Bears where you're going to try to get maximum value for this team for the next two years tops. That's really what you're playing for. You want to win the super bowl in that window. And I think it's the same thing for the Ravens. So basically what they did was say, okay, we got a guy who's reaching his peak and might have two to three great years left in Max Crosby. We're going to walk away. Let's go get someone who might be one or two years in Trey Hendrickson, but it'll be enough with the rest of our team that it'll lay the foundation for something great with the new coach. I love the way they operate. They are. They're so good at this. You know what I mean? Like, they're just. Some people never get good at it. And some people are always good at it. And they are always good at it.
- [09:18]
Simon Hunter
Well, it's funny, the, the books, the books had moved them to 11 and then back down to 10 and a half. So that was interesting. Watching the Ravens line move that they gave him half a win. They got max and they didn't move it at all. Good. And Trey, so that was, that was great by the books.
- [09:36]
Chad Millman
Well, maybe there's value there, Simon. Maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe. The other thing you just said, I thought that was so smart. Kevin McCarthy is going to say to Kyler every day, we are getting paid to take you. Like you think you're so great. You are a tremendous athlete. You are a two sport athlete. You could have gone to do anything. You think you're so great and your other team does not want you so badly. They're begging us to take you. They are giving us money to take you. That is a great motivator. It will be really interesting to test the McCarthy whisperer phenomenon on Kyler. Right, because Kirk Cousins, it worked. Daniel Jones, it worked. Sam Darnold, it worked. J.J. mcCarthy, it kind of hasn't worked. What is Kyler? Kyler is a better athlete than all of those guys, but he has your reputation of not being a guy who's committed to football. If Kevin McCarthy can do anything close to what he did with the other guys who have gone on to make tons and tons of money, that's going to be really interesting. Which means when we talk about the Minnesota Vikings who are at what, seven and a half? I think eight and a half. Eight and a half. All of a sudden with Kyler and the reputation of McCarthy, do we think, oh, that's interesting. Is that I don't hate it?
- [11:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm with you. I don't hate the. If you're taking the over because it's plus 110 at Hard Rock, eight and a half. So you did miss the value. Like Chad said, it was seven and a half. The Kyler moved. Give them what gave them a win. You've seen it with Kyler, like Kyler, his biggest issue is like what Chad's talked about. It's the commitment. Like Kyler in a contract year, what do you get? 11, 12 wins. That's what this is the said contract year for him now. Right. This is a one year proven deal. So if you're gonna back a Kyler Murray to be Motivated. This has to be the year. I mean, next year, if they give them whatever 150 million over three years next year in Minnesota, I think me and Chad will definitely back away from taking them next year. But you, you want to back Kyler in the year that he's motivated. So I'm with you on that's. That's a sneaky play, especially at plus 110. I think that that flips to minus 110 the closer we get to the start of the season. So, yeah, I like that overplay. Yeah.
- [12:02]
Chad Millman
It's like Kyler all of a sudden being in the NFC north, that division. Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff all of a sudden is sort of the least interesting quarterback. And that team, by the way, is looking more and more like an underplay. The Lions, with all the offensive line issues they're having, just think like two years ago, this team, they were freaking primed. They had the offensive line that was bulldozing people. Right? They had like Ben Johnson, like this team. That window just closed. I just, I feel terrible for them. I do.
- [12:44]
Simon Hunter
I know. That's why any team that has a standalone top five top ten quarterback, it's the ultimate cheat code for being a football fan. Because it doesn't matter if you lose a Ben Johnson, you got the quarterback. You'll figure it out. Again, I'm not trying to poo poo golf, but we all know the deal, right? It's like he needs it to be perfect to be a top 10 quarterback. And yeah, this division we've been talking about, it's. The Bears won it last year. It feels like the same type of deal this year. It's a really good going to be a toss up who can stay healthy is going to really be the deterrent for this, this division. It feels like there's just so much talent across all four teams.
- [13:22]
Chad Millman
All right. At the bottom of the pile right now. Arizona, four and a half. Miami four and a half. Las Vegas, New York jets, five and a half. I'm going to do a quick comment and then I want you to tell me, agree or disagree? Ready? Arizona four and a half. Under Agree. Miami four and a half. Under.
- [13:55]
Simon Hunter
Agree.
- [13:56]
Chad Millman
Las Vegas five and a half. Fernando. But I'm still taking the under.
- [14:08]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's an under.
- [14:09]
Chad Millman
New York jets, five and a half. I might take the alt under here. If there's a three and a half, I might just take that. And if there's an Aaron Glenn, first coach to be fired, I might probably the whole Thing.
- [14:24]
Simon Hunter
Agree. The Raiders, the only one, the only team that feels like are going to try to win. Out of all the teams, you just said everyone else, they want the top pick. Whether that be meaning we don't even know. Right. It's. You never know who's gonna be the number one pick this early. Like Fernando Mendoz, I believe was a thousand and one or not a thousand one plus a thousand to be the number one pick at this point last year. So.
- [14:43]
Chad Millman
And by the way, don't forget, what was it before the NFL season ended? one point on the show, you're like minus 150. Yeah. Fernando Menoza is minus 150. Like, go bet him right now.
- [14:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So that's. It's, it's, it's. It's a sad, sad state when it's like all these teams, we know they're going to tank because usually the NFL is not like that. You could kind of lie to yourself and say these teams are going to try. Like you get a team like the Cleveland Browns, that they're terrible. They still got the five wins. Like they were still trying. Like those guys on the defense were still trying. Some of these teams this year that Chad just mentioned, like Arizona, I don't know what, what's going to be the motivating factor there. Right. They're just going to get rid of all these players on this team that are just going to be paying all this dead money. They're not going to try to win. And same with the jets, like bringing back Aaron Glenn, such a strange, strange look and move.
- [15:34]
Chad Millman
So, by the way, bringing back Geno Smith.
- [15:39]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I know. So it's like Gino, you know, Aaron Glenn, they could win six games because they're idiots. Like that could happen with that team. So, yeah, the Jets, I don't know what to do with them, but they're another team. I just. It's hard to think of them getting over two or three wins.
- [15:54]
Chad Millman
I mean, that was an interesting move. Geno Smith, that's how bad it's gotten. The jets are signing him. It's a terrible combination for everybody. It can, you know, like, that's. Geno Smith looks good because Justin Fields was so bad. That's really what it is. This next batch, Carolina, six and a half. I felt like you started to come around to my side the other day when Barnwell was on because they made some good signings. The biggest issue I think you have is that they've got to play the harder schedule now because they came in first. But I Contend that their division. They could potentially get six wins in their division. No, their play.
- [16:47]
Simon Hunter
Jesus, you're out of your mind now with that comment. A good year with them getting four wins in their division.
- [16:53]
Verizon Advertiser
Division.
- [16:53]
Simon Hunter
That would be fine.
- [16:54]
Chad Millman
Four. Give. Give them four wins.
- [16:57]
Simon Hunter
That's best case.
- [16:58]
Chad Millman
They can find three wins the other 13 games.
- [17:02]
Simon Hunter
I know, but you think they're going to win their division? Who are they sweeping? They sweep in the Saints. The Saints are just as good as that. Like, don't. Don't put disrespect on Shuck's name.
- [17:09]
Chad Millman
Look, the Saints. The Saints have a higher win total than the Panthers right now.
- [17:13]
Simon Hunter
Right? So that's what I mean, it's like, dude, they got to play the Bears. They got to play the Eagles. Like that first place schedule, man. They got to play the Sea Auto Seahawks. It's tough. It is really tough. So that's. That's just why, like, I'm trying to ward you off. It's a fishy line. But your early bet, if you did make it was right, because I think it was minus 120. Now it's up to minus 150 at Hard Rock or minus 140. So, yeah, the. The money's coming on their total. I just, as soon as I saw that line, I'm like, my God, the public is going to hammer that Carolina Panthers line. And that is the fishes of fishy lines. Like, why is it not seven and a half? I don't get why they open at six and a half. They opened it that way because they want to take money to the over. So that's just why I was like, be careful here. But I told you, I'll support you. It's. We're a Carolina Panther show. I mean, I'll support it, but I just don't want the fans to be making one of their bigger bets. There's other safer bets to bet for win totals.
- [18:06]
Chad Millman
I can't believe the Carolina Panthers don't sponsor our show.
- [18:10]
Simon Hunter
They should.
- [18:11]
Chad Millman
Makes no sense. They don't have a. They don't get this much national attention from anybody.
- [18:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I mean, for good reason, though. It's like no one's turning in to hear the Panthers talk. Remember that Panthers podcast that folded?
- [18:24]
Chad Millman
No.
- [18:24]
Simon Hunter
Last year? No. So basically this Panthers podcast folded up because they were just like, they can't take it anymore. Both the guys said, like, it's like affecting their lives. And then all of a sudden, the Panthers won like a bunch of games in a row. So it became this whole thing where everyone was like you guys can never come back because now the Panthers are winning. It was just the whole thing. But that's how hard it is being a Panthers fan. They're making guys quit their hobby podcast because it's affecting their life that much negatively.
- [18:50]
Chad Millman
By the way, I didn't know we could just quit shows if it was affecting our lives. Because there are so many ways the show affects our lives negatively. Like if we could just quit, that'd be fantastic. Cleveland and Tennessee, both six and a half. Look, I think, I think six and a half feels a little bit high for Tennessee and Cleveland because I don't know, you're kind of on the Deshaun Watson bandwagon here. And I keep seeing this. I've seen this. I don't know if it's like becoming a media narrative if everyone is having the same conversation amongst themselves and you know, but why are people so excited that Deshaun Watson could all of a sudden be what he hasn't been in five years. Like everyone's saying DeSean Watson that he could come back. And I just. I'm not getting it.
- [19:44]
Simon Hunter
So if Chad asked me a question and I give a response to it now I'm in love with the team. You asked me my. Your favorite long shot. I said 131Cleveland Browns because DeSean Watson's coming back. And now I'm a big DeSean Watson guy. This is very big on brand for Chad the guy. I said the guys could be totally washed. It's a train wreck of the season. But the. The books are being very telling right now. Where Cleveland's plus 125 at Hard Rock over six and a half. Tennessee is minus 125.
- [20:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Right.
- [20:16]
Simon Hunter
And that is because of the divisions. Right. Like we don't know what the culture going to be. Daniel Jones coming back from a huge injury, who their quarterback's even going to be. Jaguars. It's fair to say they overachieved a little bit last year. Like it was pretty impressive how good you know they were last year and can they build on that or is that just a fluke Their first year offense and we still have a lot of questions about Trevor Lawrence especially. And yeah the Tennessee. I think maybe the pros are bending a check because the new coach bump. Right. You think solid comes in there, fixes that defense a little bit. But to me they have so many holes like you needed. You would need CJ take such a huge step to year two.
- [20:58]
Chad Millman
You mean camp.
- [20:59]
Simon Hunter
So I would take the over. I agree with the pros really bet on that one. I wouldn't take the under. And for Cleveland, as much as I'm propping up to Sean Watson, those odds at over, under six and a half in that division, I. I would agree with the pros. The under six and a half feels like the safer bet.
- [21:16]
Chad Millman
Atlanta, a quick one. Ready. Atlanta, seven and a half. I'm gonna go with the. I'm going with the over.
- [21:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's. That's what I mean. Like, this division, I'll probably be on every team's over. Honestly, like, I really looked at Dick in the under because Atlanta has enough talent, they could get to 10 wins. It's like, if Tua has good pass blocking, which he should have there, and he has good weapons, he could be great. If Pancakes comes back from his injury and he's all right, this could be a good offense. Like, there's a lot of upside. It's Atlanta team and, you know, at hard rock, they're plus 105 to the over seven and a half. So. Yeah, I'm not better right now. Like, there's no way I'm locking up money in Atlanta Falcons in the March, in March, but they are attempting line, especially at this number.
- [22:09]
Chad Millman
New Orleans, seven and a half. All right, I know you're taking the over.
- [22:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would.
- [22:14]
Chad Millman
I'm interested in New Orleans because I really want to see how well Tyler Schuck does next year.
- [22:20]
Simon Hunter
That's the exciting part. Year two of shock, right?
- [22:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's. It. Is. Are they building on that or they're getting four wins.
- [22:25]
Simon Hunter
Like, they're. They're a team. I'm gonna bend alternative over unders. Like, I'm gonna take the over eight and a half, over nine and a half. And I'm going to be taking the under five and a half under under four and a half. Like, this is it. Was it a flash in the paint or is this guy legit? Like, he's got bust written all over him. Shook. Like there's so much to go wrong for him after year one.
- [22:44]
Chad Millman
This is the perfect scenario for them because Shuck did well enough that they. He didn't put them in a position where they have to, like, be so high that they could potentially be scrambling and trying to figure out who their quarterback is going to be in a weak quarterback draft class other than Mendoza. Like, there's questions about everybody. Whereas if shock is great, they will have a full year to see and they will be a team that's on the rise because they got the quarterback that they needed at pretty, you know, sort of pretty low costs and if he's terrible, they will know. And all of a sudden they're in the archman incomes home race and let's see if they can get their hero to return. Right? So they're in a perfect position. They win either way next year.
- [23:43]
Simon Hunter
I'm just shocked. The books on the seven, a seven and a half on them, like, that feels very high for this team. It does talk about like a lot of question marks. And yeah, I'm, I, I wanted to hammer this under, but I, I think I'm too close to my love for shuck. So it's, it's, it's a tough line for me.
- [23:58]
Chad Millman
Giants seven and a half. That feels like a Harbaugh bounce, right? Like there's no other reason to be betting on the Giants at seven and a half if other than you think they are just going to completely revamp their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to bring to that team.
- [24:15]
Simon Hunter
This is like one of my favorite under bets and I know some pros, I've been hammering this over dart runs literally with his head down into guys like, all right, Harbaugh can coach out of him. Sure. I, I would not be betting on it. This guy has played one style his entire career and I don't know if you've seen him get interviewed. He's talked about not changing. He's like, that's who I am. That's the way I play. So maybe they can beat it into him. But if you don't have a quarterback and stay available and consistently get better dart flashes. We've seen the talent. He can't stay on the field and can say could be consistently, you know, getting reps. This is going to be a disaster for the Giants team because this, this is a hard division, like Dak Jalen, Jaden Daniels. This is a really hard division. So I was another line I think mispriced by the sports books. I had this at five and a half. So two, two wins off the books and that, that to me just shows how I'm viewing dart compared to the sports books. I am way lower on dart than the sports books, clearly. And yeah, I could not believe this one to open at seven and a half. So I don't give out too many favorite unders at this point of year. I like betting overs just because the line usually moves. This one, I, I do really like the under year. I think this one's going to drop down to six and a half, but
- [25:28]
Chad Millman
it's not just Dart, it's Cam Scatterbo and and who runs like a bulldozer. He's not going to change. He's coming back from an injury.
- [25:38]
Simon Hunter
His leg was facing the other way.
- [25:40]
Chad Millman
Yeah, like and and their defensive line, Abdul Carter was was disappointing this year. They're trying to get rid of Thibodeau. Like they weren't as good defensively up front as I think anyone expected them to be. They've got questions at receiver now because they've got players coming back from injury, their best receiver coming back from injury. So there people are investing a lot in Harbaugh. If they are taking the over right now because they think he's what rebuilt their special teams. Like there's just a lot of faith. Harbaugh bounce there. Washington seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule. Daniels is back for a full season and their defense can only get better and they know what the issues are. So I would like the over there.
- [26:34]
Simon Hunter
I'm taking the under. I get why you're taking the over though, but to me I think it's price right? Like I'm just taking the under just because once again, as, as, as much as I like Daniels, I don't know if the team has made the right moves to improve. I know they've tried to improve the offensive line. We'll see if that comes to fruition. But yeah, I still have a lot of questions about this Washington interest in such a tough division.
- [26:54]
Chad Millman
All right, before we get to the eight and a halfs and over, let's take a quick break from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock BET Florida Sportsbook. It's tourney time and my favorite thing to do this time of year is to fill out my brackets. So join me in the Volume bracket contest presented by Hard Rock bet. The grandpa has winner scores a two night stay at the Guitar Hotel Hotel at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and casino in Hollywood, Florida. Plus $1,000 in bonus bets to use on the Hard Rock Bet app. All you have to do is head to bracket.thevolume.com and fill out your bracket. That's bracket.thevolume.com to make your picks. Once your bracket is locked in, it's time to hit the hardwood on the Hard Rock BET app. All tournament long, Hard Rock BET is rolling out daily dance and boosts featuring a live profit boost and a parlay profit boost every single day. That's more ways to shoot your shot and cash in with boosted odds. Plus, Hard Rock Bet is giving out $25 bonus bets throughout the tournament if a team you bet to win or cover hits a buzzer beater. If you haven't joined Hard Rock Bet yet, now is the time to check in the game. New signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets, max 50 bucks. That means if you would have won a hundred dollars on your bet, now it's 200. That's how you start March hot. Don't sit on the bench. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and let's get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1833, playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it in Ohio, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [29:03]
Verizon Advertiser
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- [29:52]
Public Investing Advertiser
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public
- [30:38]
Public Investing Legal Disclaimer
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
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Public Investing Advertiser
Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures oh,
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Discover Advertiser Female
could this vintage store be any cuter?
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Discover Advertiser Male
Right?
- [30:56]
Discover Advertiser Female
And the best part? They accept Discover. Except Discover in a little place like this. I don't think so. Jennifer.
- [31:02]
Chad Millman
Oh yeah, huh?
- [31:03]
Discover Advertiser Female
Discover's accepted where I like to shop. Come on baby, get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback I think.
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Pharmaceutical Advertiser
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- [31:17]
Simon Hunter
that that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
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- [32:23]
Chad Millman
All right, Simon. Dallas Cowboys eight and a half. I'll bite. I'm a sucker. I'll take the over. I saw a lot of promise. I'm excited about what that can do. They got rid of eber flutes. That defense can get better. We'll see what Rashawn Gary can do. Maybe be a better, more effective pass rusher than what they did when they got rid of Micah and didn't really have anything to stop it. I'm down on the Giants, I'm not crazy down on the commanders but I do think Dallas is going to be better. So I'll take the over eight and a half and the Cowboys.
- [33:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I don't hate it. It's. It's minus 135 right now at Hard Rock. So that obviously shows the pros have been hitting it and you know they looked over as well with you. It's the question is that defense and Dax health. I mean they wasted a fully healthy Daxy.
- [33:15]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [33:15]
Simon Hunter
And, and Dak was good man. Like a lot.
- [33:17]
Chad Millman
Really good.
- [33:18]
Simon Hunter
He kept them in it. Like he really. We talked about coming here. I, I couldn't give her how much I love the pick and signing where he fit perfectly. What Dak wants to do which is pushing the ball downfield and running curl routes. He's really good at it. Like those sideline catches. Pickens lived up to the hype and they handled that right to me. They didn't give him a long term deal. They signed him to a one year franchise tag deal. So once again he'll be on his best behaviors pick and so I, I like that move a lot from Jerry. Shockingly smart move from Jerry there. And you know CD just like last year, I know he had those horrible drops in that one game but overall he's what a top five receiver. So I think we don't really question the offense did these offseason moves they've made to attack the defense. Is this going to fix this defense? So that's, that's the question. The pros think it is. They're, they're hammering this over. I'll wait and see if this gets to nine and a half. I'm happy to take the under a -140 whatever that gets to rather than taking this over just because once again if, if Washington is a little bit better that's gonna be really tough for them this division because the Giants, you know as much as I think they're going to regress if Dart's healthier in the year, he could easily steal a win from this Cowboys team. I mean people forget Russell Wilson. What do you have 40 points against the Cowboys team last year and Dax stole it with Aubrey field goal in the last second from 65 yards. Like they almost lost the Giants last year. So I think we're in agreement. We obviously believe this Cowboys team but that that's probably one of the lower win Totals they've had. I think last year they opened at eight and a half. It might have dropped seven and a half by the start of the season. I think they'll land it right on eight. So the books, they've been pretty dialed in here on this Cowboys team. So. Yeah, pretty interesting line movement here. It's clearly going to nine.
- [35:04]
Chad Millman
Is CD Lamb a top five receiver? I guess I would go, yeah. It's Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Puka, Nakua. I think you got to do Jackson, Jackson, Smith and Jigba. And then, like, is it cd? Is he fifth? Is he, like, in no particular order, but is he the other one? Who are we missing? That could be a Monroe St. Brown.
- [35:33]
Simon Hunter
Like, I mean, I know everyone's different. Like, you, like Jamal. You put Chase right at one. I. I think CD Is better than Chase. So it's. It's. It's whatever you like your type. It's. Everyone's different. It's whatever you prefer.
- [35:45]
Chad Millman
I just prefer about CD Versus the other guy. I don't even know if I put Jamar Chase one. Like, I'm a. I might put JSN or Puka number one. I think they both get contested balls, especially Puka is much better at contested balls than Jamar Chase.
- [36:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, they're different style of receivers. Book is like six, five, built like a brick house.
- [36:05]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Freaking awesome.
- [36:07]
Simon Hunter
They're different. But, yeah, honestly, it comes down to me just how I've seen Chase perform when the season's lost and how I seen CD Perform the season as well. CD Feels like he never takes reps off. I see Chase take reps off plenty of times like he is. Especially in games where Tegans is going off, you see him being a little about it. Where Pickens is going off, you see CD Running over there picking them up. Like, CD to me just has the exact type of personality I want. And again, that's nothing against Chase, but we're splitting hairs here. Like, Chase is, like I said, a top five receiver in this league. Just so. It's not that big of a difference. I just. If I had to pick one for my. For the Eagles, I'd prefer CD over Chase.
- [36:49]
Chad Millman
Indy 8 1/2. I'm going under here.
- [36:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. What is this number?
- [36:55]
Chad Millman
It's too big.
- [36:57]
Simon Hunter
Number? Yeah.
- [36:57]
Chad Millman
We don't even know when Daniel Jones is going to be playing. So are we saying that?
- [37:03]
Simon Hunter
Do you remember what he did?
- [37:04]
Chad Millman
He tore his Achilles, right?
- [37:06]
Simon Hunter
He tore his Achilles.
- [37:07]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [37:07]
Simon Hunter
That's like eight and a half.
- [37:08]
Chad Millman
And he tore his Achilles midway through the year it's not like he tore his Achilles in September so that like we've seen great quarterbacks miss the full year for that in a division with
- [37:19]
Simon Hunter
Houston, Jacksonville on a Tennessee team we think is going to be better. So Chad, Chad's. I think we're in alignment. You're like the under, right?
- [37:25]
Chad Millman
Yes, as I said under.
- [37:27]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So to me like this and the Giants, these are two hundreds. I've been betting pretty heavily. I, I did not do not understand this open at all. Unfortunately the books are limited to it. Like I, I, I've had a couple of books only take a thousand. They don't let me re bet it either. Like they're holding firm on it because I think they know like there's too many unknowns here and they might have hung a bad line here because yes. If Daniel Jones is fully healthy coming to this year, year two of running the Styken offense, I'd love this over. Like we saw how good he can be running this offense with Jonathan Taylor and you know they're bringing, they brought back his number one receiver. But the fact that we've seen two quarterbacks, I know he's much younger than them, but we saw Kirk and Rogers take at least a year to come back from Achilles. Okay. Even if Daniel Jones is a little bit younger, he uses his legs way more than both those quarterbacks. Way more. Like that was the huge thing with Daniel Jones is using his legs, especially running outside the pocket. So I, I cannot believe they hung a number this high. I could easily see this drop into 6 1/2 7 by the season kicks off. We get worried Dino Jones won't be back till November. So bizarre, bizarre line.
- [38:33]
Chad Millman
But the sportsbook Minnesota we talked about. Pitt is at eight and a half, taking the under on Pittsburgh. I don't know who the quarterback's going to be. I feel like they're revamping their culture. They aren't leaning into players, they develop. They're bringing in new guys. Their defense with Watt and everybody else is. And Hayward is just a year older, not necessarily better. They haven't figured out what their defensive backfield issues are like. This feels like a Respect the uniform number. I'm taking the under.
- [39:12]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. It's. What are we going to do for our old Tomlin days? We'd always try to find reasons to bet the under.
- [39:20]
Chad Millman
We don't have to worry about that anymore.
- [39:21]
Simon Hunter
I know. And that's, that's, I love that they're hanging this line exactly on the Tomlin line where they're yes.
- [39:26]
Chad Millman
Isn't that weird?
- [39:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. The new era. Or are you going to say the voodoo is gone and this is a six win team now, especially with Aaron Rodgers coming back. But you know the way Pittsburgh's been attacking this offseason, they, they think they're a 9, 10 win team. So, you know, I, I, I'll, I'll pass on this one. I guess if I had to make a pick I would join Chad and take the under here just because I do think Tomlin's that big of a deal and this division is that tough. But yeah, I love the books. Hung this right at eight and a half and it's plus 125 to the over. If you do like Pittsburgh on the
- [39:57]
Chad Millman
over, the last eight and a half is Tampa Bay eight and a half minus 140 to the over. So money's coming in on that over there. Look. What do we believe? Do we believe in Baker? Do we believe this team can, can, can sort of return to what it was early in the year, return to what it was the year before? Or are they going to be a team that continues to sort of be in a perpetual state of middling mediocrity? Close enough, but can't quite get over the hump as they also they're going over some roster turnover. Mecca Buca was not as good in the second half of the year as he was in the first half of the year. What is going to happen to their running game where they had a lot of injuries last year with Bucky Irving? Like there's, there's issues there. I think they're getting the benefit of the doubt at eight and a half but that division is soft.
- [40:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's the reason because they're in the right division and any other if they were in your division chat if they're in the north, they would probably be seven and a half. Like they just, they're getting a free game here because you assume they'll be the best team in this division because they still have a ton of talent and you know Baker, they never, he never had surgery or at least I didn't say everything in the news or I didn't hear anything from my minions but I, I was positive he was hurt because he was a totally different quarterback the first half of the season, second half and you know the second half of the season, what they lose seven straight or whatever.
- [41:25]
Chad Millman
It was something like that.
- [41:27]
Simon Hunter
Something crazy like that. So to me they're another high variance team. I could easily send them getting the 10 wins like, if Baker is healthy and he's put it together, he's really good. I mean, it's crazy to think he was top three in MVP odds for totally first month and a half of last year's season. So, you know, we know they have a ton of talent, but we saw last year, like Chad said, they fell apart. And I think that is because they've lost so many smart offensive minds who become head coaches. Right. And there's only so many times you can overcome that. And, you know, they're a really fun team and once again, a really fun division. And I'm not going to say I'm hammering their under here, because, like I said, I could see the over being a possibility. I'll simply pass this one. But if I had to make a pick, I would lean towards the under.
- [42:12]
Chad Millman
Simon, we got six teams that are aligned at nine and a half. Are you ready?
- [42:20]
Simon Hunter
Let's do it.
- [42:21]
Chad Millman
Chicago Bears, nine and a half, plus 100 to the over, minus 120 to the under. And I know that my head is telling me the under is the right side here, but how do I not want to root in with every part of my being for the Bears to run the table and go to the Super Bowl?
- [42:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Like you said, the smart bet probably is the under. You expect the regression. Last year, they overachieved. I mean, what was it the first seven, eight weeks? They had five wins. True. Coin flips. Like, they won in the last minute, two minutes, like they had the record.
- [43:05]
Chad Millman
How about the end of the season? Every week was a cardiac arrest.
- [43:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I. I would say the playoffs really amplified that. Right. They should have lost. The Green Bay that came back had an incredible win in the Rams.
- [43:16]
Chad Millman
They never should have like that. That game never should have been extended.
- [43:19]
Simon Hunter
Right. So, you know, it's the type of team that it's hard to go against them and take their under because what we just talked about, they find ways to win. That's on the coach, and it's also obviously on the quarterback. And Caleb, we'll see how he handles this offseason. Right. Last year, he was at the lowest point probably in his football life. Right. He was embarrassed, being torn apart by the media. I feel like if he had another bad year last year with the Bears, they probably would have been open to moving on from this year. Literally, that's how bad it was last year. Now he is the golden goose. Like, the whole city's behind him. Everyone believes in him. They'll see the talent, and can he handle that? Right. Can he still be putting in the work this offseason? Because you know, we haven't, we haven't gotten it since yet. But Joe Burrow, I don't know if you've seen him. He's been out and about with a lot of beautiful women this off season, which is no problem. Like this dude, he's in his 20s, he's a millionaire. He's a star of coinfl quarterback. These other quarterbacks like Mahomes, I've seen him rehabbing and work at Slate. Josh Allen, I've seen multiple videos of him at the Bills facility working out. Not him out partying or doing anything. It's like that's, that's my whole thing here with people. It's like, okay, Caleb, I've seen him go and have fun during the off season. For the first two weeks it felt like the off season. These last year I've seen with him though, he's been in house, working out, being locked in. So if that holds true through the summer, I would take you over right now. I'm going to be. I'm going to handle patience with this line because I think it is price priced right by the sports books. I'm not rushing thick the over or the under.
- [44:54]
Chad Millman
Well, you just mentioned Cincinnati. Cincinnati is nine and a half. This feels so inflated to me. I don't understand it. It's clearly, it's clearly like the.
- [45:10]
Simon Hunter
The was your favorite Bengal sign in this offseason.
- [45:13]
Chad Millman
Chad can't say it.
- [45:15]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, exactly. No one can. Cheapest owners.
- [45:18]
Chad Millman
This is only about Joe Burrow is going to be playing a full season. So they think even though historically he never does. So A, you're banking on a healthy Joe Burrow and B, you're assuming that Joe Burrow is what everyone believes he to be. He is which is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm not even sure you believe that anymore.
- [45:43]
Simon Hunter
I still like again. I took a lot of heat last year because I had him at number six in my top 10 quarterbacks. I put at number five, Stafford over him and like that's reversing history. People like, I try not to over adjust the one season people were killing me because I had Stafford above me. Like, have you not seen staff for these last couple years? He's nowhere near as good as Joe Burn. It's like, dude, Stafford, if he's healthy consistently on the field, he is just as good or if not better quarterback than Joe Burrow. The hype had just reached too high because Joe Burrow won the national Championship with maybe the greatest scotch football team ever. And then his first full, healthy, second
- [46:15]
Chad Millman
best, second best college football team ever.
- [46:17]
Simon Hunter
His first wealthy NFL went to Super Bowl. So it's like I got. I understand why people love him so much, but my whole job is to keep evaluating year to year. And every year I feel like he's regressed a little bit. He just is not taking the next step and that's because the team's failing him. Right. Those shots, those hits have added up to him and he's not gotten better like I talked about. Joe Flacco came in, he took that line from being. I know this sounds crazy and you can say, well the offense line got better as well. I agree. They went from the 31st ranked offensive line when Joe Burrow went down to the 15th offensive line when he came back. And you could say, well, they got better throughout the season. No, Flacco didn't hold the ball so long. He's the reason their stats and look as terrible. He helped fix that offensive line. I know as crazy as that sounds, but I do put a lot of the sacks and these hits onto Joe Burrow. So bad. Bad win total. Like you just said, that's a, that's priced so inflated by just all pass weird. Yeah. So I hate to say this division, honestly I would. I could see myself taking the under on every team and just one team hits big. Like I could see the Ravens hitting big, right, getting 12 or 13 wins or Pittsburgh somehow Rogers getting the 1013 wins or some of the Bengals do figure it out, get the 10 or 13 wins. But all these, all these teams feel like you could easily see them all go under. Like it just feels like it could be a totally lost, lost division here in the NFC North. So yeah, over under nine and a half feels way too high for the Bengals.
- [47:41]
Verizon Advertiser
All right, two truths and a lie. Here we go. I went to college with college football coach Jim McElwaine. I began my broadcasting career doing play by play for the Las Vegas Stars. And I've been a Verizon customer for 15 years. Okay, I lied. All three are true. Verizon isn't as expensive as you think. In fact, if you bring in your ATT or T Mobile bill to a Verizon store, they'll give you a better deal. That's right, a better deal on the best network with the most ways to save on plans, streaming and phone deals. So take that AT and T or T Mobile to your local Verizon store today, get a better deal and start saving based on root metrics Best Overall Mobile Network Performance U.S. 2nd Half 2025 All Rights Reserve must provide recent Consumer Mobile bill in the name of the person redeeming the deal. Additional terms, conditions and restrictions apply.
- [48:30]
Public Investing Advertiser
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high flow free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transact for your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public
- [49:17]
Public Investing Legal Disclaimer
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [49:27]
Public Investing Advertiser
Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures oh,
- [49:31]
Discover Advertiser Female
could this vintage store be any cuter?
- [49:33]
Discover Advertiser Male
Right?
- [49:34]
Discover Advertiser Female
And the best part? They accept Discover. Except Discover in a little place like this? I don't think so. Jennifer oh yeah, huh? Discover's accepted where I like to shop. Come on baby, get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback I think.
- [49:53]
Pharmaceutical Advertiser
Discover is accepted at 99% of places
- [49:56]
Simon Hunter
that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [50:00]
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- [50:30]
Chad Millman
supplies last Denver nine and a half. I'll take the over we don't know what's going to be happening with Kansas City yet and when Patrick Mahomes is going to come back. The Chargers are, you know, could be 15 and 2. They could be 9 and 8. Right. You just, you never know with that team. I like what their defense is. They just added Jalen Waddle. We know Bo Nix will be back. I think that Sean Payton is a good enough Coach that a 10 and 7 team with this talent is not at all inconceivable to me. I'd rather be betting the over on this team than the under.
- [51:11]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And just like the Bills, this is one of my bigger, bigger bets I've made so far this offseason. I'm thinking they're over. I, I, oh, nice.
- [51:18]
Chad Millman
Over.
- [51:19]
Simon Hunter
And I do think you're being priced here at nine and a half because you know, first place schedule obviously and this, the division is so tough. Right. We think Raiders are gonna be a little bit better. We expect the Chargers to be healthier and better. And the, you know, the questions we have right now for the Chargers is Minter like he left, what is that defense going to be like?
- [51:36]
Chad Millman
Yep.
- [51:37]
Simon Hunter
For, for the Chargers. And when I look at this Denver team, it really does come down to the O line and D line. Like I just think they're so good on the O line, the D line. And then you factor in the fact that on this Bonix deal they've been out, they've gone out now, they spent money, they've attacked these other positions where they're trying to build out the defense, they're trying to build out this offense. And you know, Sutton now on one side, Waddle on the other side. I love that move. Like they're another team. They were trying to get AJ and that would have been a huge upgrade for them. Waddle, obviously he's not AJ but he's, he's got a ton of talent, a ton of speed. We'll see how he does for this offense. But yeah, I, I think the only real question now right now for Denver is can they get a running back like that to me is the weakness of this team. They need a running back and they've been trying, I mean everything I've read from all the reports, they've been trying really hard to get a running back and you know, they've been outbid by Kansas City and different things just have not worked out for their favor trying to get a running back in there. So yeah, that, that went total, strictly to me based on their division and the first Place schedule like the books are just saying okay if Bonix comes back healthy and he is what he was last year, they'll usually get the 10 or 11 wins. Especially champagne is that coach if he takes a little bit of regression the book is out on him. If these teams start really know how to attack Bo Nix and this Champagne offense that he's running. Yeah they could easily go under under this right. There's just, there's a lot of unknowns right now how they're going to be in year three with bone Knicks. But yeah, I'm very, very confident. I think they're another team that get to 11, 12 wins. Like I just think they're going to be really competitive these next two, three years because they've drafted so well in the interior that Bo next contract it's just so cheap they could fill out the rest of the team with that.
- [53:20]
Chad Millman
I love when you and I agree. Let's see if we with these last three teams we're in agreement. Houston, before we go over them just give me a yes or no. Houston nine and a half over no. Jacksonville nine and a half under.
- [53:41]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [53:42]
Chad Millman
New England nine and a half under no. Okay, over three. So that makes me sad. Before I was like super high because we were nailing it on the Broncos.
- [53:56]
Simon Hunter
These are more that could change though brother.
- [53:58]
Chad Millman
And we, we were in agreement on the Bengals. Yeah, I guess my take is this. I believe more in the Texans defense than in the Jags defense. I think that is something that you know it will will improve over the next year and I have to believe that CJ will be better over the next year even though they haven't done tremendous work to improve their offensive line yet. He's got to be better. He's going into a contract year. This will be the time he proves that he's going to be worth the 50 to 60 million that they are going to have to pay him. That's a foregone conclusion. Jacksonville, I'm just, I feel like we saw them improve week to week last year but how much of that was schedule? How much of that was luck? How much of that was circumstances of who they were playing when they were playing them and the injuries that the other teams had. And New England, I'm just seeing a team that is playing a first place schedule and benefited from a really easy schedule the year before.
- [55:10]
Simon Hunter
Yeah I'll say like the Texans. I totally agree. Like their defense could easily get them to 10 wins in that division. Yeah, for me I'm just taking the under just because we're going to say right now just because it just feels like, you know, feels like a very high wind total like 9 and 8 feels more likely than them getting a 10 win honestly with this team. And you know the, the factor for me is going to be those Colts games, right? If it is no Daniel Jones and Houston does get them twice in September and then October. That's a big deal, right? That's two free wins against a subpar team that Jacksonville will not be lucky. Is that so? Yeah. This is another one. I'm not rushing to bet Jacksonville. Totally agree with your statement. First place schedule. I just, I can't get over how good their head coach is like the offense he ran, how much better Trevor Lawrence got the season. Man, we joke link. Oh and he hated Trevor. He would go berserk on him on the sideline being like this guy is a full on idiot. But Trevor's not an idiot, right? He is smart, football wise and he did improve as he's going along. And that's just the type of team that like okay, if I believe in the coach, if I believe in the quarterback, it's hard for me to take their unders, especially in such a bad division. New England, I was on the under. Honestly, coming to this, this off season, it's like, oh my God, they're gonna get smoked. Their schedule next year is absolutely brutal. The Miami jets factor though is a big deal. Like if that's four free wins, I mean Rabel, he can get us five and a half more wins. Ganny and as bad as their offenses, to me, like I don't think they made enough improvements to the offense. Their defense might be really good next year again. Like Rabel clearly went to the front office and said, okay, we can't make a big splash at the wide receiver position to get, get a guy, you know, to take Drake to another level. Let me attack the defense. Let's keep adding the defense. They've done that like this offseason. So you know, another team where I, I not made a bet on it yet. I really wanted to be on the under. Now I'm leaning more to the over because it's just, man, that division is going to be so bad. It's just them and the Bills truly is and we've now seen it a hard rock move to minus 125 to the over nine and a half. So I think we both can be patient, Chad. Maybe we'll get to 10 and a half and we both together can take the under here. That to me ten and a half. That's an automatic bet on the under here that they feel right at nine, nine, ten wins. So once it's ten and a half, that would become one of my bigger bets. Sticking there under.
- [57:37]
Chad Millman
All right, so here's where I summarize and feel like I we we found some agreement. Colts under for sure, Giants under for sure, the Bills over for sure, the Denver over for sure, and Cincinnati under for sure. Anyone I'm missing
- [58:06]
Simon Hunter
no. Like it.
- [58:07]
Chad Millman
Nailed it, right? Yeah, I think we found mostly agreement. That makes me happy. All right, that's our show coming up next week. We're going to talk Major League Baseball opening day. I don't know about you guys, Simon. I'm freaking loving the World Baseball Classic. I think it's amazing. There'll be more March Madness to discuss too. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [58:47]
Simon Hunter
Hello. You play to win the game, you
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that happen along the way.
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