← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 10 Bets: Rams-49ers, Ravens-Vikings, Packers-Eagles and NFL Trade Deadline Reactions
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
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- [00:35]
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- [01:06]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [01:32]
Simon Hunter
Chad. I woke a little sad today thinking we only have three months left of football. Brother. I can't believe it's flying by this fast.
- [01:39]
Chad Millman
When I started making notes for the show yesterday, you know, I titled all my notes columns like sharp week XX, Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday AM, Sunday PM. When I wrote week 10, it was shocking to me. Like the on ramp to joining the volume was so sudden. And then to now be 10 weeks into this thing and the season be more than halfway over is I'm already kind of sad. It always hits me when, you know, after the, after the clock changes and by the 4:30 games it's dark and I know when I take the garbage out later it's going to be cold and dark and it's going to be like that. And the only thing that makes me happy on a Sunday is the football. And that's like we're on the other side of it. That's no fun.
- [02:42]
Simon Hunter
I know I'm the other way though. As a guy who's overweight. This is overweight man season got it bundled up. I love Thanksgiving again. A big guy love Christmas like I love this time of year with football. It actually matters and the games matter. Like that Bills Chiefs game that felt like the first real playoff stone setter of the season. Like it's getting me right into the mood Of November, December, football. So I'm with you. I obviously I'm a flip flop guy. I love the warm weather, but this is the best. Like as a football fan, as a, as a cold weather fan, it doesn't get much better than right now.
- [03:16]
Chad Millman
How much weight will you actually gain during overweight season?
- [03:21]
Simon Hunter
I don't because I pack it on. Like I, I stress ate hardcore. September, we, we had a rough, we had a nervous September because we had to do well. Yeah, probably put 20 pounds on then I probably dropped 5 pounds since because, like, it's all good, right? Life's all good now. But yeah, September, that was a tough month for your boy. I was stress eating because I just couldn't sleep. Like that's the hardest part. If you can't sleep, you just eat and you knock out. You know, it is. If you have a full stomach, it just knocks you out. Like, I'll just eat a bowl of pasta and I'm out. Pasta is literally the worst thing you can possibly eat.
- [03:53]
Chad Millman
You're eating a bowl of pasta at like midnight or like 4 in the morning.
- [03:57]
Simon Hunter
Like, I've worked all night, I gotta go to bed because we have a show or whatever it is. 11, 12 in the morning, just gotta eat bowl of pasta puts me out. I know, again, I'm not doing it now. Now that like we're late in the season, I can sleep. But yeah, when I'm stressed out, I can't sleep. I mean, again, that's part of the gambling life. Like I can't stop looking at the numbers and think what I'm missing. So yeah, now it's all good.
- [04:19]
Chad Millman
Dude, I haven't eaten a bowl of pasta period, let alone pasta at 4 in the morning. Wow, that's crazy.
- [04:28]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I'm in an unfair spot. I have a guy who makes it by hand a block away from me in Haddonfield, like this amazing Italian restaurant. And it's like, it's the best pasta and sauce you can possibly have. I'm with you. I was not a late night pasta guy either until I met this man. I'm just addicted to it.
- [04:45]
Chad Millman
I'd like to meet him, see what he can do if he can turn me into a late night pasta guy. Listen, it's been about 40 hours since our worst week of the season. Talk about stress. It took me until yesterday afternoon to really feel like, okay, I can start looking at these numbers again. Unfortunately, a lot of these numbers were already moving from what we talked about on Sunday night in the direction we thought they would Go reminder. We went 1 and 4 last week in our five favorite picks. We won with the Atlanta Falcons. We lost with the Chargers, Texans, lions and Chiefs. 4 favorites did us in. Clearly we over corrected. What's making me feel worse. A lot of favorites that I like this week for the year. We are 25 and 20 through nine weeks with our five favorite picks. This is our Tuesday show. We will review the entire slate. It is our first Tuesday show of no Vember.
- [05:52]
Narrator/Poet
November can be cold and gray. November can be surly. With bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early. Do you fear the force of the wind, the slash of the rain? Go face them and fight them. Be savage again. The palms of your hands will thicken. The skin of your cheek will tan. You'll grow ragged and weary and wet. But you must do the best you can.
- [06:30]
Chad Millman
Make sure you check out the Sunday AM show if you want the games. That will be our official five after we've had a chance to review the latest line moves injuries this week that'll also include any impact from trades. Don't forget you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video. While you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. All right, we got a Thursday night game and I think you and I both have a strong opinion on this. Las Vegas at Denver the Denver Broncos currently eight and a half. The first note I made on this game, no hesitation, give me the Broncos. What say you?
- [07:13]
Simon Hunter
Shocker. Chad Simon says give me the Broncos -8 and a half.
- [07:18]
Chad Millman
Simon says Broncos might -8 and a half. Presented by Hard Rock Bet I want.
- [07:24]
Simon Hunter
To play a game.
- [07:26]
Chad Millman
Simon says it is a little shocking. I don't know if we've ever had a Thursday.
- [07:31]
Simon Hunter
Simon says I've done them but it's shocking. I would take this big of a favorite. Honestly in divisional game when we just talked about how we need to get back to our dog ways, it's really about the number on the spot and I'm excited to dive more into this game as week as long here see where this number does go. Like this Raiders team could be sellers right right now and that's why I want to get this number out early. People to grab this number early because it might just be the Brock Bauer show. Right? They already traded Jacoby Myers this morning for a pick, you know, to the Jaguars. Yeah, they're. They're sellers and they should be right. I talk to people all the time and within that organization. That game last week, not that it dictated if they're going to retain Pete Carroll, but it kind of did. Like P. Carroll put his neck out there, wanted to get Geno. He needed some wins here and it feels like they're a package deal. If they keep tanking to get a quarterback this year, they'll send Pete and Geno pack. And so I think that was a give it all game last week. They blew and we talk all the time situationally there's certain opportunities during the season. This feels like a rare opportunity. You have a Raiders team that played a really hard fought game and went into overtime and used up the full overtime clock like they played a ton of football and now they're on a short week on a Thursday night football. It's pretty easy numbers to find teams in this exact spot. 6 and 25 against the spread. So 19%. All right, let's check out what's it like for that team on the road. Even worse. 3 and 16 against the spread in this exact spot. So you know, could this be an outlier? Could this Raiders team pull off the upset? Sure. But this is the type of game where the Raiders team like last week I thought we had a good spot. We that was to me a good bet that we got unfortunately got got by the backup quarterback here. This is that game that Bo Nicks just blows out teams like it's a bad Raiders defense that's really bad against quarterbacks. Going to run the football.
- [09:32]
Chad Millman
Yep.
- [09:33]
Simon Hunter
On the flip side, defensively, I love this matchup for this Denver team in a get right spot against a quarterback I still don't trust. Even going back and re watching that Raiders game, it just felt like the Brock Bowers game like he had just had defenders bouncing off on him making plays. Nothing Gino did in that game give me more confidence. He's still thrown off his back foot, still happy feet still lock it in on his number one read and that's the only read he's gonna throw to. And lucky for him it's Brock Bowers who obviously is a game changer. So yeah, this number, I thought it'd be getting to 10. It's gone the other way. It's gone from nine and a half down to eight and a half right now. So pros are coming in on this Raiders team but I'm gonna go against them here. I think they're over reading on a short week. I like this spot a lot for this Broncos team and a team that typically Bo Nicks, he dominates in these exact spots.
- [10:20]
Chad Millman
Simon, this might have been. There's probably three games that I feel great about right now. It'll, it'll change over the course of the week. This was one of them. But everything about this to me screamed get right spot for the Broncos. A much better defense. A Raiders defense that gives up a 71% completion rate in the secondary. We saw, we saw how Trevor Lawrence did it against them, kept them going down the field. That second half was just a track meet. This is a much, much better defense. Don't forget in that Jacksonville game, Trayvon Walker left the game because he tried to close fist, closed fist, punch a guy in the face. He was ejected. That was a significant difference in the game. Like you could see they stopped getting any pass rush on Geno once he went out of the game. That's not going to be a problem for the Broncos and they are just too good defensively and too well coached offensively. Even Bo Nix can't get in the way of this Thursday night. Home favorites of more than 9 61% against the spread. Thank you Killer sports. I thought you would like that one because I know you like the trends but I like it too. In this case I think we're going to end up having Denver in our final five and as a contest play and it's going to be a Thursday, a rare Thursday play for us.
- [11:47]
Simon Hunter
That'll be interesting. Got definitely have a conversation on Thursday.
- [11:50]
Chad Millman
Atlanta versus Indy. This one's in Berlin, 9:30am Eastern. Indy's a five point favorite. Someone was impressed with the Falcons because this one after their loss to the Patriots and after the Colts lost to the Steelers this moved from six and a half to five and a half down to five at Hard Rock. Five and a half in a lot of other places. Listen, Colts were undone Sunday. Lot of turnovers specifically by the STE forced by the Steelers. Best playmakers are the best times. Pressure from Alex Highsmith, pressure from T.J. watt. The Colts gave up five sacks and the Falcons like one in 10. 1 of 10 of third downs played opportunistically but not well. They did exactly what they needed to do when they got the turnovers from Drake May fumbles, interceptions on Sunday we talked about the wise guys. I mean the Falcons and the wise guys have moved it in that direction. I think, I think I like the Falcons here.
- [12:58]
Simon Hunter
I, I don't know. I'm worried it's about to move too much. I like the Falcons. We talked about it six and a half Sunday night. That's where I wanted to be. You Just, I mean, you nailed it. They were 1 in 10 on third down. I don't trust Bennett's man. I cannot trust this kid. It's so inconsistent. It's so up and down. And we joked we really did steal that one. Like, that's why we always say you just trust the number you bet the. When you bet those games. And I had no idea how Atlanta was going to get there, but I knew they would find a way here. The way the number's been moving, it's like, are they going to find a way? Has the number moved too much against a Colts team that we talked about? Like, when it's going. They're an absolute juggernaut offensively. It took five insane turnovers by Daniel Jones for them to lose by seven last week. Like, can't be understated enough how good that offense is in a game like that. They can still put up 20 points. So I know it's tough. I, I want to be on the Falcons. There's still one plus six out there. If you're able to. If I have to make a pick right now, yeah, I'll go that side. But this gets below four. If this gets to four and a half four, I. I might have to take a position on the Colts. It's just international games always is going to lean towards the favorites.
- [14:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [14:11]
Simon Hunter
And I get what the pros are doing here. Like I said, that's such a key number betting the six down. But Hard Rock, they're showing us they've already been hit by the pros. They're the first book I've seen. Get the five. So yeah, it's. It's slowly becoming a cold slide. I'm not going to touch it yet until it crosses another. Another key number. If you obviously listen to the show Sunday night or you can get it right now. Get the six if you're still able to Atlanta that at that number feels right. But man, we, we joke. I, I went back and watched that Atlanta game again because it's just like, how did we get away with that one? That was like you. I saw that side. I didn't realize they were only 1 for 10 on third downs.
- [14:47]
Chad Millman
We got away with it because of Drake London. That was it. Just Drake London.
- [14:50]
Simon Hunter
Drake London.
- [14:51]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that was it. But it's also why we bet it. Like knowing he was going to be back is the reason why we wanted to bet that game. He's the best asset that Michael Penix has. I'm with you. Like, I don't want to other than Caleb Williams. I won't rush to judgment on any quarterbacks in their second year. And I always loved Michael Penix going back to his IU days, but he's way inconsistent and making bad decisions.
- [15:17]
Simon Hunter
He's a rookie. He's a rookie. Yeah, it's a second year rookie.
- [15:21]
Chad Millman
Kind of barely played last year, so.
- [15:23]
Simon Hunter
Right.
- [15:26]
Chad Millman
All right, we'll put a pin in that one because five is kind of a dead number. I don't, I don't like. That's why I was wishy washy. I couldn't really get a read at that number because.
- [15:37]
Simon Hunter
The pros hit it that hard. International game. So like you said, it's very clear what position the professionals are on.
- [15:44]
Chad Millman
Hard Rock. A sneaky sharp book.
- [15:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, they're always ahead of the line movement.
- [15:48]
Chad Millman
It's pretty wild, it's pretty interesting. Good indicator.
- [15:52]
Narrator/Poet
Super bowl dreams that glowed in the summer sunshine flicker and fade in the autumn shadows. And hopes that were high in the heat of September can wilt and die in the chill of November.
- [16:07]
Chad Millman
Buffalo at Miami. Miami is a nine and a half point dog at home. I don't know like you know what.
- [16:14]
Simon Hunter
You have to do.
- [16:15]
Chad Millman
I know it's, it's you gotta play Miami. I know, especially coming off of that game. But in my head it's Buffalo or nothing. Like, like I, like we'll throw. I know it's not.
- [16:28]
Simon Hunter
Then tease that down then if you're gonna do something like that, get him to two and a half. Like take him in a seven point teaser or something. But here's the flip side.
- [16:35]
Chad Millman
Hold on, let me interrupt you for one sec because here's the flip side. We got so burned by by favorites last week, it almost makes sense that we would have to lean into Miami here.
- [16:51]
Simon Hunter
Well, it's just, it's also a little bit of an inflated line in my opinion. It's like the Bills minus nine and a half, they can't stop the run. They're going against one of the best run blocking scheme teams in all of football. And I don't know, it's like, like I was talking the guy the other day. My dream scenario again, these trades never happen. Would be for a guy like A Chan to go to the Chiefs. Like they haven't had a Jamal Charles type in the Chiefs offense in a lifetime. That's like the perfect matchup. But I talked to people in my name and they're like, yeah, we're looking for a first and a second. It's like no one's going to trade you that for this guy. It's so. They highly value a chan and this feels like an hn game. And you know the, the Bills, the last time they played them, that was when it was all going really negative for that Miami team. And Miami backdoor covered it, whatever it was. But just looking at this line, you're right. Like we know we're supposed to bet Miami. I don't know if I'm going to force it in to be one of my favorite bets, but it's like a nine and a half. Some books, touch ten. I'll take Miami. But God it's. I, I just, it's hard to trust Miami. They're just so dysfunctional right now. It's all crashing down. So it was like last week against the Ravens. They had all these opportunities. They outplayed the Ravens in the first half and they just kept shooting themselves in the foot self inflicted wounds. And then the second half they just couldn't do a single thing. So I'm with you. It's hard to trust this Miami team. But I gotta expect off extended rest playing against a Bills team coming off a high emotional win this past Sunday, now going on the road to play Miami here just you know, a point or two inflated line. I'm once again not going to force it in, but I do have a model at seven and a half.
- [18:30]
Chad Millman
So I think what's interesting here that we got to be cognizant of for today at least is who's going to be a seller. We just talked about it with the Raiders. We saw the Miami has already traded Jalen Phillips to the Eagles. So who else are they going to get rid of? But by the end of the day, will Jaylen Waddle be on the Miami Dolphins? And if so, would that impact our thinking about betting the Dolphins as huge underdogs? I think you're right. The Dolphins are the right side here. They're the, they're the play. But I kind of want to wait until, until I know a little bit more about who's going to be playing.
- [19:06]
Simon Hunter
And we don't really don't want to do it again. There's tens out there, people. You can grab the tens if you want, but it's like, God, I don't.
- [19:13]
Chad Millman
Want to bet the Dolphins. Yeah, you know who else I don't want to bet? The Chicago Bears at minus three and a half against the New York Football Giants. Oh my God, I love Ben Johnson.
- [19:25]
Simon Hunter
I love it. Bet your bottom dollar, you lose the blues in Chicago.
- [19:31]
Chad Millman
Chicago the other day in the Chicago text chain There was a great sort of meme that I got sent. It said at the top is, it's so over the bottom. That to the right is we're so back. To the bottom is it's over. And to the left is we're back. Like, that's the life cycle of a Bears fan. And we lived it all on Sunday. Ben Johnson, to me, is the saving grace. Every time I watch a Ben Johnson video post Game Celebration, I'm just thrilled he'll drop in. He just drops in. We got some stuff to work on. We're going to talk about that tomorrow. Today we are going to celebrate our win because it's hard to win in the National Football League and this team believes in him. Whether or not Caleb can do it, get us to the super bowl, by the way, Simon, because that's how I think about it. Doesn't matter. I love Ben Johnson. Here's my problem. Let me take you through this game. This defense is so bad. Like, if not for the Bengals defense being so bad, the Bears do not win that game. And this is the kind of defense that Jackson Dart can get healthy against, right? He can scamper all over this defense. The secondary gives up a 70 or the team gives up a 71% completion rate, tied with the Raiders for the worst in the league. They're especially bad at underneath passes. Like, if you look back at the Bear schedule, they've basically spent most of the year making mediocre quarterbacks look really, really good. And their only wins by margin this year are the Cowboys. Big blowout. A lot of turnovers from the Cowboys and the Saints, which if the Saints weren't turning the ball over, that game is much, much closer. So kind of leading Giants in three and a half here.
- [21:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and that's. That's why again, I was just making funny a little bit for the super bowl talk because it's like you guys only beat horrible, terrible teams, right? And that's reflected this year. And that's why you should be excited by your head coach, because that's your coach being the difference. Because bad teams don't beat bad teams. Right? Like, at least you're above bad teams at this point where you're not dropping games you should be winning. So the Giants, to me, are a bad team and they're one of the worst run defenses in all football. This is the exact type of team you want to face if you're the Bears. But you're right, the line makes me want to take the Giants, who you don't have the defense to be catching three and a half. So it's another game you could easily get burned like just like the Dolphins. But it feels like got to get back to old ways. Supposed to bet the Bears here, I mean at the Giants now with the hook. If it was minus three, minus two and a half, I could have talked us into taking this bear side just because I think they'll be able to move the ball anytime they want against the Giants. But like you said, Dart's gonna have a ton of opportunities to push the ball downfield and use his legs against this really suspect Bears team that. Did you guys just lose another when you're another pass rusher?
- [22:44]
Chad Millman
Yeah, we did.
- [22:45]
Simon Hunter
So it's, it's just bad. You guys are just having bad luck. You're already a bad defense and you've been hit by a brutal injury bug. So yeah, it's. Anytime your defense gives up 42 points to Joe Flacco, it's. I know it's lazy talk to say, yeah they're a bad defense, we got to fade them here with Dart. But it's just to be, just to bring it back to the number. That's what we're trying to say here. It's, that's, that's the point. We're saying your defense is so bad. I don't know if you can carry a minus three and a half favorite right now. So yeah, plus three and a half. I guess I got to do the Giants but don't feel great about it. They just no scatter boo. All the injuries, it just, it's really catching up to that offense. In the last two weeks, they've just not looked the same.
- [23:23]
Chad Millman
No, but look, to me there's a similarity here to the commanders and how they played the Bears and their ability to use Jaden Daniels and have him split the defense and run up the middle. Sort of these, these design draws and also if the pass rush gets too far up field, he finds a hole through the middle. Like that's what Jackson Dart is really good at and he's been really, really accurate this year. So I think there's some so much room underneath for the Giants to find receivers that they basically just have possession receivers, you know. So I worry, I worry and that's why I want to be in the Giants.
- [24:03]
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- [24:34]
Chad Millman
New Orleans at the Carolina Panthers Panthers are -5 you mentioned the Panthers on Sunday night is a game you liked. We've all thankfully moved on from the Saints are competitive phase of the season we've entered. We love the Panthers phase of the season. We know the Panthers are going to want to run the ball with Rico Dowdell. It's how they have won big games on the road this year and we know they are better at home. Saints D bottom five in the league as a rush defense like across every metric. Right. So there is a clear advantage. I will say this number is flirting with a Saints line. I'm not saying it is but I do think it's flirting with it at five and a half. It definitely was which is why it's moved to five. That's what it was on Sunday, five and a half. But that's the one thing that makes me nervous is that we so love the Saints and we've been getting burned by favorites this past week. Are we clouded right now? Yeah.
- [25:45]
Simon Hunter
And it's a Carolina team that we already love coming off the biggest win they've had as a franchise and since Cam Newton. Is that fair to say? Like this is. This win put them to five wins, five and four in the NFC outside chance at a wild card. They're like the Bears. Like it's this two teams that need desperately to win these games and anytime you can steal a game like that as Carolina, like we said, Bryce young threw for 100 yards. I don't know if we're buying them at their peak. Like I think that they were a good team that stole that game last week. Like I saw some crazy stat that I didn't realize. I wish I had mentioned on Sunday. They did not punt Green Bay in that game. They didn't punt the entire game. That's so crazy. When you go back and rewatch it, it's like they had their opportunities. Carolina is just a good team and they're well coached. Shockingly so. Tyler Schuck is terrible. Like I watched a lot of that Rams game. There's no way he gives him a better chance than Spencer Rattler. And you know that's just a draft pick you make because he never played really in college and when he did play you saw a lot of big, big time arm talent. But I think he's like an old man at this point. He's already like 25 or 26, which is old in football years. And he's got happy feet. I just, I really, I just like you. I, I wanted to avoid this game because it's like I am I overvaluing this? My model has it at 7, so at least I'm getting a good number. That's what my computer thinks where I'm like, like you. The alarm bells are ringing here. Am I overvaluing this team? But I, I like this match for the Panthers and I just don't see how New Orleans Saints offense can keep up with this Panthers team where this is a get right game for them. Because like you said, the Saints struggle against the run. That just sets up Bryce Young to push the ball downfield once those safeties drop in. That's what he's been so great at this year, is finding those open windows downfield. I like this matchup a lot for the Panthers. So interesting line moving. A couple books popped -4 and a half on the Panthers. So like Chad's saying, professionals are coming on the Saints. Not going to, not going to rush in a take a minus five. It's not that big of a key number. So if it moves to four and a half, I'll grab it. If it goes back up to five and a half inch, trending towards six, I'll come in and grab the five and a half. So again, no bet for me yet on this game. Just watching the line move and see where it goes.
- [28:03]
Chad Millman
Bryce Young consistently is becoming one of those players who you love to have when the Panthers are an underdog. He's a gamer and like his athleticism is shining through. We start to see it last year, it's carried over into this year. He's, he keeps his head up when he's running around the pocket. He's looking downfield, he's making accurate throws. Like when he is scrambling and challenged and has to be getting the ball downfield, that's when he's at his best. You saw it in the, in the final drive, right? He made some great passes, 100 yards, but I think he had like 20 of them in that final drive because he just, he's becoming a gamer. He's becoming a quarterback you can lean into when they're underdogs.
- [28:49]
Simon Hunter
Well, he just, he didn't have it honestly. Like he threw a terrible back of the end zone.
- [28:53]
Chad Millman
Terrible pick.
- [28:54]
Simon Hunter
That was.
- [28:55]
Chad Millman
That. That could have killed the game for them.
- [28:56]
Simon Hunter
It should have. Like I said, I can't believe we stole that game. He was 11 of 20 for 100 yards and a pick in the red zone. And that's just how dominant Rico do in this run running attack is right now. So that's what I really feel like both of us we think he'll bounce back here with Bryce Young in this game but it's just that that running attack I feel like will always keep us above board Carolina this year and like we keep saying they're a sneaky seven seed if they can get there they have the offense. We just. I think we both agree they do not have the defense right now to be a playoff team.
- [29:24]
Chad Millman
Is Tyler Schuck one season away from eating pasta alone in his house at 4am Just. Just stress eating if he's lucky enough.
- [29:36]
Simon Hunter
I don't mean some people call that living the dream. You call your nightmare dude that the.
- [29:42]
Chad Millman
Only thing I'm doing at 4am is peeing.
- [29:44]
Simon Hunter
That's it.
- [29:45]
Chad Millman
Cleveland at the New York Jets. The New York jets. This number's moved from one and a half to two. Simon. I know they're coming off a by either New York Jets a juggernaut. And look if if it's a big if they can be halfway competent. I like the jets here because I do think the Cleveland Browns offensively, they just cannot do anything. They. They do not have a professional quarterback in the room right now. If they did, they would be playing him. So to me this is really about the Jets. You had a lot of thoughts on this. We talked about this before we came on the air for a minute about this number. So share what you're thinking.
- [30:32]
Simon Hunter
I know. I hate it. I love it. People, this is almost my Simon says about. Like we said, Hard Rock's already moved. There's a couple one and a half's out there on the jets you can still get. I'll check real quick. But yeah, they're still. They're still out there. Two of their really big public books. So you can still get the one and a half if you can find it. But this is an. It's another game where it was just like our stupid rationale for taking them with Cincy. They're gonna steal games, they're gonna win games. This jets team, it's just. It's just the way football is. And you look at this matchup like we talked about. I agree it's terrifying to think of that front of this Bengals team playing against this jets team. But my hope, which again, I've been suckered into it before, is that Justin Fields in this offense found something against the Bengals to take into that bye week and use it in this type of matchup. Like you have a quarterback that can use his legs against Miles Garrett. That's the only kryptonite Miles Garrett has. If you just run away from him and he can't catch you, that's the only way you could stop him. There's no one on their team that can block Miles Garrett. There's nothing they can do blocking wise but scheme wise you can use your quarterback and outside the pocket and run away from with your running back That I like the way this jets team can attack the surrounds offense and we always talk about this Browns team is different away from home, off the grass. Like we always say it's a fast field. People forget medlife. I mean they don't forget. We all know because it takes people's Achilles and knees every week. It's a turf field. So it's a fast field which again benefits this jets team in a matchup where I just can't get over this kid Gabriel. Like I am shocked they didn't announce Sanders was going to be the starter this week. So everything is just so negative behind that Browns team behind closed doors and I mean I know they're coming off a bye week as well. I just can't. I can't see with this kid Gabriel, I know you're in the same boat as me. Like I've watch so much of him play now I forever feel so lucky. We did take that Miami spot where that Cleveland team was obviously the right choice there and he threw the ball five times like that's how they have to win. So could they get this against this jets team? Of course we know the jets. They're also a team that our sellers they couldn't move Breeze hall, which would be a big deal, right? He's been arguably their best offensive piece this season. Run the ball. So I'm not diving all in on jets here yet but I do want people to grab the one and a half if possible because I think that's the pros are going to keep coming in. I could easily see this getting a 2 1/2 3 by kickoff and if you don't take a position at that point, if it's three, sure you could take the Browns but at minus one one is one and a half. This is a Jets number. I'd grab it before it moved.
- [33:07]
Chad Millman
The other thing I would add one of the reasons why we like New England against the Browns a few weeks ago other than the fact it was a Browns defense on the road. The Browns secondary is susceptible to big plays. And the one thing that the jets have been able to do this year occasionally, and Justin Fields showed a little bit of this the other last week or two weeks ago, is throwing the ball deep and any kind of explosive play. So to me there is one little offensive advantage, a Creek sneak offensive advantage for the jets in this game. We talked about it more than I thought we would like. I thought I was going to want to be in the jets and you're going to be like, come on. Like let's not be silly here. But so I'm glad we're in agreement on that. The one thing that does scare me is I don't know who's like who are they going to get rid of, you know, by the end of today? Just don't know. Jacksonville or Houston? Houston is a one point favorite. The number has moved in favor of Jacksonville. I'm not surprised. I was actually surprised that the number was at one and a half on Sunday night and by yesterday night, by last night it still hadn't moved to one. It finally moved to one this morning. At least at Hard Rock like CJ Stroud is in the concussion protocol. The Jags D is not, the Broncos D that Houston just played to get and the Texans D. I don't know, it may literally make Trevor Lawrence's head spin. It might be more than he can handle. So it's tough to bet on the team that is playing with its backup quarterback as a favorite. If I could get Houston as an underdog at some point, I'd be more interested.
- [34:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I hate it because it's we know we're supposed to bet Houston. I think we're both just so burned by watching 3/4 of Davis Mills just do nothing. But that should be better.
- [35:09]
Chad Millman
So good. Like the Jags defense, I know they just made Geno Smith look like a hero. He scored 29 points against them like they scored God knows how many points in the second half. So it's not the same defense. And he's got a week to figure it out. He's not coming in cold at the end of the second quarter, middle of the second quarter.
- [35:32]
Simon Hunter
And that's the biggest deal is he hasn't prepared or practiced with the ones, you know, all year. Definitely wasn't probably diving in until midnight every night preparing in the playbook in case he started this past week, which again this is. He knows the deal. Like this is for his future, his livelihood. This is his Super Bowl. And we always talk about we like backing the backups in their first start. Usually not the second start. Usually the first start. And you're right. I probably just need to swallow and take this Houston team. But like you, I'll just be patient, see what the public and professionals do. If CJ is not cleared, maybe we do get a plus two and a half plus three bump and then we're in a really good spot. Right. We have this Houston defense as a dog at home against Trevor Lawrence as a road favorite once again and tried to warn you last week about it. You don't? I I just something about Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite will always scare me because he's always going to keep the other team in it. I feel like it's the same thing here. And you're both. We're both talking about a little bit here. It's like it's another bet on Houston's defense like we have been doing these past couple weeks. It's just such a great unit and especially turning teams over. So be patient. Let's see if we get a plus number here on this Texans team.
- [36:44]
Chad Millman
We have so much agreement this week. After last week, I think that actually bodes well. I think last week one of our problems might have been we couldn't find agreement and it turns out like all the games you liked were the right side, all the games I liked were the right side and the games that we could agree on were the wrong side. So I think this is trending well for us. New England at Tampa Bay Simon the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are two and a half point favorites. Hit it, hit it, hit it. 100% Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- [37:20]
Simon Hunter
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
- [37:24]
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- [37:28]
Simon Hunter
Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?
- [37:34]
Chad Millman
Buccaneers minus two and a half against the high flying Drake May mvp, New England Patriots and you dropped a little bit of a hint about this on Sunday night. I'm actually surprised it hasn't moved to three yet. And that's an indication to me of the respect that everybody is giving Drake maybe and Mike Vrabel. I kind of feel like because Baker and the Bucks got beat up so bad by the Lions and then went into the bye week, they forgotten that Baker Mayfield was Drake May before Drake May was Drake May in the MVP race. Meaning the surprise MVP that everybody is talking about who's cooking. No matter where he's playing or no matter who's on the field, the Pats have won six in a row since starting one and two. The last four Simon have included blowout wins over the Saints, the Browns, the Titans, and then a nail biter against the only, you could say, competitive team they played in, the Falcons. The Bucks are in every way in this game a step up in class for the New England Patriots. And the Patriots on the road, they've now after playing hurt for a few months, they're getting guys back. Luke Gicke, his practice window has opened after being on injured reserve. There's a chance he could play this week. Baker's had a couple weeks to heal a lot of his injuries and ailments. A confident Baker at home as a short road favorite against an upandcoming team. I think the coaching matchup is good. Like Mike Vrabel isn't going to out coach Todd Bowles. Give me the books.
- [39:22]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's crazy where I love this one too and it feels like I gave up five games I really liked on Sunday night and they all moved in great directions for me. Looks like I made a couple great bets. Except this one. This is not budged and of all of them, this felt like one of the easier picks, right? We're happy to be selling on the Patriots. Like you said on the road here in a really tough matchup for them, playing against the team that in every metric is just better. Like flat out we talk about a veteran team, a complete team that is going to be contending for Super Bowls. You think of this Bucks team. When you think of an overachieving, overachieving team that's fighting way above their weight right now, it's got to be the Patriots. Like everything is going their way. And you know, that's why I understand why pitcher fans are so excited. The Drake May stuff, it's crazy. I really can't get over you going back and watching that game. He's making really stupid mistakes. Still did enough to win that game after making really bad mistakes, which again, that's all you're looking for. If you're a Patriots fan, you're lying to yourself. You think you're gonna have playoff success this year. But there's little things you can see where it's like Drake May might be a guy, which is all you want to see at the end of the day. So this type of game, he goes in there and wins this, I'm happy to eat it. Talk to a couple pros. Hit me up yesterday after here, listen to our show and they, they like the Patriots here and they think we're overrating a Bucks team that, you know, they did get embarrassed by Detroit, but like you said, they bounced back the following week. Their defense really destroyed the Saints. Maybe something is wrong with Baker and they got good info and I'm missing on it and that he is hurt and even after the bike, he's still not right because he just hasn't looked right in their previous two games. So this feels like a good right spot for Baker. Christian Gonzalez didn't land right. He's. He's banged up for this Patriots team after a really tough game against Drake London last week. So I don't know, Chad, why is it not gone to three? I do not get why this one has not moved. So I'm with you. I'll grab it now. If it moves lower, I'm gonna be a sucker. I'll probably buy some more Bucks line here, but anything under three I feel like is a great Bucs line. They just feel like not only their field goal better, I feel like they're even better than that. Like they feel like if they got healthy, if guys are back this week for them, especially that offensive line, I could see them steamroll this Patriots defense. So really interesting. The books have held this at two and a half.
- [41:41]
Chad Millman
We have breaking news. Simon. As we are discussing, Adam Schefter is reporting that the Indianapolis Colts have traded two first round picks to the New York Jets.
- [41:57]
Simon Hunter
4.
- [41:59]
Chad Millman
Sauce Gardner. Sauce Gardener's sort of been struggling mightily.
- [42:08]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [42:09]
Chad Millman
With Aaron Glenn this year. So this is a guy who the.
- [42:13]
Simon Hunter
Jets have gotten rid of their number one and number two corner in the last two weeks because they traded.
- [42:17]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [42:18]
Simon Hunter
Carter to the Eagles. I think.
- [42:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So to me, is this just a breakup of a bad match between coach and player? Is it a player who after two stellar seasons has hit his ceiling and is falling off? Was it an attitude thing? I don't know the answers to any of these.
- [42:38]
Simon Hunter
They gave him 120 million.
- [42:41]
Chad Millman
They just gave him a ridiculous amount of money and now he's going to the Colts and who have had some issues on the edges defending against number one receivers. Huge upgrade for the Colts and shows. Shows that the Colts feel like they're going all in and that they're in a really good spot right now. I don't know that it makes a difference to me in the number. Like it's not like, you know, Jerry Jude now.
- [43:09]
Simon Hunter
But I don't know if Dylan Gabriel's going to take advantage of no Sauce Gardener.
- [43:13]
Chad Millman
That's what I mean.
- [43:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [43:14]
Chad Millman
Also, the Saints traded Rashid Shahid to the Seattle Seahawks.
- [43:23]
Simon Hunter
Interesting though. I like it. Colts win now. I'm all about it there. I I agree with that with the Colts team like they're again idiots like me. I'm never no, we're never going to believe them. I'm always going to take my homes, Lamar or Josh Allen over them in the playoffs. But there's a path. You just got to make it with that type of offense if Daniel Jones is clicking right. So their biggest weakness by far was that secondary cornerback position. So that's awesome. They're making moves. But yeah, I don't know if either of us agree. Two first round picks for a guy making that kind of money, that's heavy. That's questionable.
- [43:56]
Chad Millman
That's an all in move. Yeah, all in.
- [43:59]
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- [44:29]
Chad Millman
Baltimore and Minnesota Minnesota's a three and a half point underdog. Numbers moved up a little bit. Listen, I've been, I've been throughout this whole week I've been trying to find underdogs to fall in love with and not lean into the favorites after the bloodbath last week and I, I, I felt like the Vikings could possibly be it and I can't get there. I just can't get there. Like I have to believe the signs I've seen from the Broncos defense since they came out of the bye. Baltimore, I mean, I'm sorry, Baltimore's defense since they came out of the bye, plus Lamar Jackson being back is a greater indicator of the direction of this team than what we saw last week with JJ McCarthy who had some really nice throws and they got him out to the edges where they can take advantage of his athleticism. But LeBron Jackson is not Jared Goff. What the Vikings did against Jared Goff to make him ineffective in bringing the pressure is not going to be as effective as on Lamar Jackson. So I can't get to the Vikings here and I really want to no.
- [45:33]
Simon Hunter
And it feels like the books hung a bad line. We talked Sunday. Opening this 3 minus 120 on the Ravens was egregious. Hard Rock I'm looking at alive here in Jersey. They've just moved to minus four they were the last book hanging on the minus three and a half for this Ravens team. It's gone. Every book now is minus four, minus four and a half. I think I'll keep growing like you said. Maybe we'll get there on Sunday with this Vikings team because it will be probably the biggest need for all the sports books. I'm. I'm somebody that I am as well have just been hammering this Ravens money line. I don't. I don't get the number. Raven Lamar just himself owns NFC teams and you look at this matchup. We talked a little bit Sunday night. The worst run defense. The Vikings, yes, they did look good against that Detroit team. Tons of credit to Flores. Are they going to do it really? Two games in a row like this is. You move Lamar off his spot, he's going to burn you for 20 yards with his legs. Do they have the linebackers of spy Lamar? Like, there's a lot of stuff I like here for this Ravens team between Derek Henry's running style and Lamar's running style against a Vikings team that does struggle against the run. So really interesting number. The book opened it. Like I said, it's up to minus four and a half now. In most books it's minus four at Hard Rock. I still a little tempted to take the Ravens. But if we can get to the number that should be six, six and a half. And this is the biggest need of the sports book. No chance. I let us touch this one for contest or betting wise. But as we sit here right now, if. If you can get. I don't think you can. If you can get the minus three and a half. I'd still take on the Ravens. But I think you're the best you're gonna get now is the four and.
- [47:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Only fours.
- [47:16]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So I'm just. I'm gonna wait and be patient this one now and see. See what the professionals do with it. But just a terrible opening line by the books and hopefully people listen Sunday night and took advantage of that number because it was just egregious.
- [47:28]
Chad Millman
You just mentioned the money line though. My money line I think is minus 225.
- [47:33]
Simon Hunter
So did I see that right?
- [47:35]
Chad Millman
Did I. Did I see the right number?
- [47:36]
Simon Hunter
I'll check. Hard rock is minus 210.
- [47:39]
Chad Millman
210.
- [47:39]
Simon Hunter
Okay. So it's about red that's moving though. Like. So I'm. I have hit that when it was minus 180. Minus 190, minus 200. If you can still get the minus 210, I would like Chad's saying, I think it's going to settle a -225,230. So I, again, I, I'm not here telling people to go all in on this with the money line, but this is the exact type of games Lamar does win and cover. He just beats up on defenses that can't stop the run. And we talked about this is a very desperate, desperate Ravens team playing a Vikings team coming off a huge win with a young quarterback. And how does he handle that success? I just, I can't get over how bad of a spot this is for this Vikings team. On the flip side, how great of a spot is for this Ravens team. So, yeah, it's, it's not shocking to see this number getting pounded up to four and a half right now.
- [48:27]
Chad Millman
Lamar Jackson's been as good against the blitz as any quarterback in the NFL the last couple of years. Not counting this year, obviously hasn't played as much. But last year especially Outstanding, outstanding.
- [48:39]
Simon Hunter
I think he's like leading the league in QBR right now too. Like, he's just, he's awesome. Yeah. The thing holding them back this year has been their defense. And they look like they figured stuff out like they did last year. Remember that second half of last year. And it's all about Kyle Hamilton making the adjustments with him, him coming down in the box, playing more free. You see, it just affects that defense in so many ways with him and Rokon Smith.
- [49:02]
Chad Millman
Arizona at Seattle. Seattle's a 6 1/2 point favorite at home. The line has dropped from 7. Here's the problem with this game. Seahawks are peak, peak, peak, peak, peak, peak value right now. Sam Darnold is everybody's favorite MVP candidate even though he's still 20 to 1 to win the MVP. He's behind Josh Allen, he's behind Patrick Mahomes. He's behind Drake May still, who all have significantly shorter odds. And this defense has been unstoppable, especially coming off last week seeing what they did to the Commanders. Cardinals have lost close games with Kyler Murray. They finally won one with Jacoby Brissette in an offense that basically with him has just looked much, much better than it is with Kyler. And this is without its first and second string running backs. Jonathan Gannon has said Kyler Murray is the starting quarterback, but could they just sort of keep shadow benching Kyler Murray? Like, I would much rather bet on this game if it was Jacoby Brissette than if it was Kyler Murray.
- [50:12]
Simon Hunter
Totally agree. And I know it's been Very lazy and boring to people. I've just been pound table all year about it. Seahawks on the road has to become an auto bet. They're just the defense travels. I said the last week against Commanders, I couldn't get over how underrated the public keys being on the Seahawks defense traveling, and little did I know Sam Darnold was going to be perfect in that first half. You just didn't matter so much about what the defense was going to do. Sam Darnold, a night like that, you're not going to beat him. So I just, I'm gonna keep doing it. I'm gonna keep fading. The Seahawks team when they're at home against good offenses because I just, they like their defense plays differently at home. I mean, just going back to the two losses this year, week one I talked about, that was a fluke. I like the Seahawks. They lost 17 to 13 in the last drive by Purdy in a game which Sam Darnold just wasn't comfortable yet. And that Seahawks offense, the other loss against the Bucks, the defense gave up 38 points at home against. You know what? We expect to be a really potent offense right now in that Bucks team. But I feel the same about this Cardinals team when it's Jacoby Bursette. So I'm like Chad, I, I bet into this I won't invest a penny more until I know exactly who the starting quarterback is. I am not betting Kyler Murray in his first start back after a big injury on the road. Even though, like I always say, Kyler is a dog is a great bet. I just feel like that's too much ask of the guy coming back Rusty in this exact spot. It's. It's too much. So I'll be patient. I'm not going to force it in there. But I, man, I love this. At plus six and a half for this, Jacoby Brissette just feels like a game. They're going to be competitive in it the whole time. Like we always say, this division, it's one of the best right now in football. The Seahawks, Rams and 49ers, they're, they're, they're the teams. But like I keep saying about Arizona, they play teams close. They played the Colts close, they played Green Bay close. They play up to their competition level. So I, I like this a lot if it's Brissette, but yeah, I think we're both in agreement. I'm not going to force in if it's Keller Murray.
- [52:11]
Chad Millman
Detroit at Washington. The numbers eight and a half. It was three On Sunday night when we talked about liking Detroit, basically what we're being told is that Jaden Daniels is worth five and a half points. Do you think he's worth five and.
- [52:24]
Simon Hunter
A half points this year with all the stuff that gets going on? Like, no Terry McLaren, that feels fair because he's not, he's not been healthy all year. He's been playing through injuries all season. And yeah, no one, no one wants the victory lap saying Washington was going to be bad this year in regress after a quarterback gets hurt. But everything we worried about has come true for Washington. And how do you not feel bad for their fan base where it's like it's all there, right? Your team is invested to win now for this season, you're like the oldest team of football. Every move you made, it looks like a dud. And it looks like it's gonna be a two, three year rebuild now. Like when you're really looking at their team on paper, well, their defense is.
- [52:59]
Chad Millman
Just so bad, atrocious.
- [53:00]
Simon Hunter
And their coach, I said it last week, I think he might be an idiot. Like some of the stuff he did with Mariota, treating him as if he was Jayden Daniels. And now fast forward to this week having your star quarterback who's playing banged up still in that game that you have zero chance of coming back and then getting hurt. I just, I can't get over how bad Dan Quinn might be as a quarter, as a head coach. So I don't know. I know we're probably supposed to take Washington here because the lines move so much, but this feels like a game Detroit's going to win 40 to 9. Just all their frustration from the week before. Campbell just pours it on. I mean I. Is it. Did I see that right? The lavu is suspended linebacker? Yeah, yeah. So I think he got suspended for hip drop tackle. Keeps doing and they're like, dude, we're already finding enough. Maybe it was a third or fourth offense. He's their best, in my opinion, their best defender. Like he is really, really great linebacker. So you take him out. Now you have a 37 year old linebacker trying to cover the tight ends in the middle of the field against this Lions team. Just disaster in every way. So I don't know if it's gone high enough yet. I saw a couple books at nine and a half and it's come back down to eight and a half. So there is professional money holding us back here maybe. I just, I'm so bitter at Detroit because they burned us so bad last week. But this is when we're supposed to take Detroit. So I'm trying to try not to overreact because we got sobered last week by these favorites, that there are some favorites we just might have to take here in the lines. It might be one of them. It's like, okay, Mario and I might get his against the suspect lines defense at some point, but overall, I just see this Detroit offense doing whatever they want. This, this, this watching defense might be one of the worst in the league.
- [54:44]
Chad Millman
It's a tricky one because we're just.
- [54:47]
Simon Hunter
Scared off by the big number again. We just got burned by the science team. It's.
- [54:50]
Chad Millman
We just got burned by a lot of teams on the big number. And it's.
- [54:52]
Simon Hunter
I know.
- [54:53]
Chad Millman
And it's, it's going back into the well on the same exact theory that Detroit can't be bad again. Right?
- [55:01]
Simon Hunter
That wasn't our theory last week. That was a good matchup. I just. Again, we got golf got by Florida.
- [55:07]
Chad Millman
Yeah, exactly.
- [55:07]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [55:08]
Chad Millman
Patience, patience. Composure, communication. All right, before we move on, here's a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bat. This is the golden time of year when it's not just pro football, NBA, college football, football, college hoops and hockey all share the stage. There's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're looking for an edge before you lock in, check out the Hard Rock Bet stats hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie, and neither does the data in there. Check out the Stats Hub now and get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida. And it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states, too. And Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by the Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC. In all other states must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 8-3-3 play wise in Indiana, few or some, you know has a gambling problem that wants help, call 1-809 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800- Gambler Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, so another game. We were just talking about Seattle and Arizona and how good the NFC west is. The Rams go into San Francisco and look, I really want to love San Francisco here. The line is three and a half. I don't know how they're going to play defense in this game. They lost another edge defender in Mikel Williams, their first round draft pick. I know you love Mack and maybe he'll be playing quarterback, but the Rams, Rushdie is elite. There is no hole in this defensive unit. They're like top five across every advanced metric, including fifth and EPA Perush. So, like, they're. The Niners are empty at D line. They're empty at linebacker. It's a tricky one. The line has moved from three to three and a half. I know you want to play the Niners here, but it's, it's ugly if.
- [58:05]
Simon Hunter
You'Re going to San Francisco. Yeah, it's. It's definitely a weird world right now. I'm a lover of Mac Jones, a guy who. I just notoriously shut him for years.
- [58:20]
Chad Millman
And I, And I'm all over the Rams. Like when I used to love betting Kyle Shanahan as a home dog in a. In a game where they're, they should.
- [58:28]
Simon Hunter
I mean, it feels like you're, you're, you're overthinking. It's like, aren't. Aren't we supposed to take. Not think about this one. Take four, nine. Shockingly enough with Purdy again, if he was fully healthy, I have this line at minus or plus two for the 49ers, so they'd still be a dog. Mac Jones is one point difference once again. That's why I keep trying to say the Mac Jones thing. I think it's closer than you realize. They're not that different playing in the Shanahan system. And, and last week, I mean, Mac Jones, I think he was perfect. He was like 15 to 15 to start the game. So we've seen it. He can push the ball downfield. And like you said, that's the nervous part here, is we're back in the 49ers, team that just has nothing left defensively. By far. The best offense they've played since they've lost Fred like that Atlanta totally no showed. They haven't really had a test. Right. It went Atlanta, Houston and the Giants. That's not three juggernaut offenses. So you're right for your skepticism. I just. This feels like the type of games of the Rams just lay an egg on. Especially the fact that this is going to be one of the bigger public sides of the week. People are quick to forget this Rams team lost to this 49ers team on a short week at home as an eight point favorite by three. So it's a tough thing here. Is the line move too much like the 49ers have only gotten worse and lost more players since then. The Rams have only looked better and you know, played better since then. So I, I think the books are trying to tell us something here, Chad. So like I, I said Sunday night I would take the Rams a minus three because I just saw it moving this way. But I said I, I feel like I'm have to end up on this 49er side and I am going to have to be on the side. So I know it's, it's gross, but I got to hold, I got to hold it here and say we got to take 49ers at plus 3.
- [60:13]
Chad Millman
Now what's so funny about this game is on Sunday night I was all over the Niners.
- [60:20]
Simon Hunter
Were you?
- [60:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah, during the show. As soon as I saw it, I'm like, I feel like I got to take the Niners at three.
- [60:27]
Simon Hunter
You're supposed to. We know that much. You were supposed to take the Niners here.
- [60:30]
Chad Millman
And like all the work I did yesterday just made me think how are they going to stop Matthew Stafford and how is Christian McCaffrey going to gain any yards? I just like forgetting about the number. Just looking at the schemes. It's a tricky one. We'll talk about it on Thursday a little bit more.
- [60:54]
Simon Hunter
And I'll say this. I love our fans, especially like the ones who listen to us and are doing our off season show this summer. I said I was not investing any money into Puka Nakua and I was investing in Devonte Adams. I feel like that was the value in fantasy football. Puka started out incredibly, but he's been banged up a lot.
- [61:12]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [61:13]
Simon Hunter
In receiving touchdowns. Chad. Here we are through nine weeks.
- [61:16]
Chad Millman
Devonte Adams.
- [61:17]
Simon Hunter
Devonte Adams, eight touchdowns. So it's, it was just all about value and playing the scenario and I just love that matchup with him and Stafford. It's like I Knew Stafford was going to love having a guy like him who's so smooth and precise at running routes. And yeah, I'm not going to lie, it is scary betting against this Rams team right now, but this feels like such a spot, such a spot to go against them. So, yeah, I'm interested what the professionals do. This line. Early money obviously has come in pretty heavy on this Rams team.
- [61:44]
Chad Millman
All right, time for the prime time spotlights. Chicken. Taking a look at our island games, Pittsburgh is visiting the Chargers. The line has moved from three and a half down to three. Another stinky line. Not stinky, but just another bad line that the bookmakers posted on Sunday night. Forget about it being a rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. How are the Chargers going to protect Justin Herbert? We see it every single week. They're now out, Joe out. Joe Alt is now out for the season. Bobby Hart, who was supposed to be an off the street sort of backup, turned into one of their better offensive linemen. He pulled his groin. Status unknown for this weekend. The Steelers did do things defensively against the Colts that I think were new. And they were the reasons why we were sometimes afraid to bet them. They stopped playing so much, man. With Jalen Ramsey. They moved him to safety. They got Kyle Duggar from the. From, I think, the Patriots. Right. And they played him a lot in the game. So now they put all this stuff on film so people can see that they were playing zone. And it's not going to be confusing to anybody. But the bigger issue is just the Chargers cannot protect Justin herbert. And if T.J. watt, Alex Highsmith can do anything against this chief, this Chargers offensive line, he's just going to be running for his life the entire game.
- [63:06]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I hate this game so much. I'm not going to lie. It's your early read on Sunday was so right. It's a. It was a Pittsburgh number. Three and a half. Now if you want three and a half, it's like minus 130. That's just totally gone. Hard Rock here in Jersey has already moved to two and a half. Minus two and a half now.
- [63:23]
Chad Millman
Wow.
- [63:25]
Simon Hunter
So it's kind of becoming a Chargers line. Shockingly, my model had this at a pick. So like a ton of value to the Steelers team. I think it's what you're saying. It's like maybe I'm underestimating the value of Joe Alt and this offensive line, how important it is to success. Not only Herbert, but that running attack, which if you can't get that going against this Pittsburgh team, they make you one dimensional. Yeah. There are ways Pittsburgh can defensively play really well. Right. When they know you have to pass. You got guys like Watt up front. That's going to be a huge deal. Right. And he can spin his ears back. But I just, I'm having a hard time getting there on Pittsburgh at two and a half. At three I can, I can get there. Three and a half, I'm, I'm all the way there. But at two and a half I'm slowly starting to be like, isn't this a Chargers line? At what point does this become a Chargers line? Because to me they are still the better team. And I just, even last week it took five turnovers and a ton of things go their way for Pittsburgh to kind of win that game. Yeah, I don't know, it feels like we have a pattern here with Pittsburgh this year. Right. The games they win, they have tons of turnover luck because it's just, you know, it's a dysfunctional defense. Like we said, teams can get theirs against them. They're going to give up yards. Can they win the turnover battle? That's how they're going to steal games. So Herbert, it should be a great Herbert game and spot for Herbert. But like you said, if he has a third stringer going up against Watt, I don't care how much you're chipping with the tight end or the running back, someone's getting a one on one against a really bad suspect backup on that offensive line, they're going to win. So I'm with you. If you can get the plus three on Pittsburgh, that's probably the line to get right now. But I'm really not too favorable of either of these sides right now.
- [65:03]
Chad Millman
Last game on the board. Get ready.
- [65:08]
Simon Hunter
Are you ready for some football?
- [65:13]
Chad Millman
Philadelphia at Green Bay. Green bay is a 2 1/2 point favorite. It's gotta be Green Bay. This has to be the buy low, sell high spot. I know the Eagles have traded for ha, done half the trades, you know, Howie go and Howie before the trade deadline. They've added Jalen Phillips from the Dolphins. They added Jared Alexander, the cornerback who had been buried on the Ravens benchmark. I don't know if that's going to be the solution to their, you know, second cornerback need on the edge. But we've just seen the packers lose to the Panthers at home in which the Panthers defense was great. But like you pointed out, the packers did not punt in that game. That was self inflicted entirely by the Packers. Meanwhile, the Eagles, they're like, they're looking like champions the last couple of weeks, so. And they got the buy. So I'm a little surprised that this is under two and a half because it feels like such a Packers line. I'm actually surprised it hasn't moved to three.
- [66:21]
Simon Hunter
And we always said hard rock sharp book here in Jersey. They just had two, so.
- [66:27]
Chad Millman
Really?
- [66:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So some. Some professional money obviously is coming on the Eagles, and that's. I knew. We saw it Sunday night. I knew this would be the most public dog of the week. And, you know, public dogs do hit. Like the Bills were the number one public dog last week. They came through no problem. So this Eagles team, everything you said is so true. They could be getting into form here. I'm walking into it. I just. I like to think that this Green Bay team is better than what we've seen. And when they play against certain competition, they're another team that plays the level of that competition. I mean, how many times we've seen this year they play well against really good teams and then lay total eggs against suspect teams. Like that Browns game. That was a really suspect loss. And that was once again on Jordan Love. He gave that game away. How do you not blame Jordan Love for that Carolina loss? He gave that game away. He just made so many bad mistakes. So. I know. I love this one. Sunday, I'm kind of flipping towards the Eagles, unfortunately. I'm getting kind of getting pushed into it. I. I want to hold firm, hear what the professionals are saying here. I'll see what other guys are saying. But as right now, a couple pros I talked to, they do like the Eagles here. They like the number, especially with the hook at two and a half. But doesn't this just feel like a stinky line? This should be a Green Bay spot. So I'm gonna dive more into this one right now. Again, can't. Can't get much from the model that my model has. This one in minus one Green Bay. So technically is Eagles line. But I just think something's real trappy about this game. And yeah, this Eagles team as championship form like you said they've looked, this is gonna be a true test. This is a really good Green Bay team on the road after an embarrassing loss. You expect LaFleur to get these guys to bounce back?
- [68:10]
Chad Millman
Yep, that's exactly it. All right. I mean, we're gonna have a lot to talk about on Thursday because we got a lot a. The trade deadline I think is impacting some of this. We want to see where players end up, obviously, even while we were talking about this. We were considering the jets and then they trade Sauce Gardner. Denver minus eight and a half. As Simon says, we're thinking about Miami plus nine and a half. The Giants plus three and a half against the Bears on the road. Carolina, we'd like it to wait to four and a half. We hope it gets there. Jets minus one and a half. We talked about we were hoping to get Houston. We were hoping to get it at one and a half. Who Tampa Bay minus two and a half. That is Chad's choice. Would you say Baltimore at four is still a playable number?
- [68:57]
Simon Hunter
I don't hate it. I'm just again, I think we have PTSD from last week where it's like we're. We're betting a super public favorite on the road. But that's why I'm trying to tell people if you can get I'm more comfortable in the money line. I know it's not great because it's 2 to 1 on your money, but I just, I don't know if I bet 200 to win 100. What I feel is a pretty safe bet. I usually take that position.
- [69:18]
Chad Millman
We'd like Houston to get to plus one.
- [69:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Let's see if they get to a dog.
- [69:23]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Detroit minus eight and a half. We'll see San Francisco plus three and a half. Icky. And then Green Bay minus two and a half. We're going to keep an eye on so still a lot to discuss on Thursday. There's too much movement right now to outside of our Chad's choice and Simon says to get firm. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the gains we are zeroing in on plus our head to head sharp versus Square battle brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [70:05]
Simon Hunter
Hey, let's be careful.
- [70:22]
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- [70:52]
Simon Hunter
This is an Iheart podcast.