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Sharper Square – NFL Week 10 Bets: Rams-49ers, Ravens-Vikings, Packers-Eagles, and NFL Trade Deadline Reactions

Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This episode of Sharper Square dives into NFL Week 10 betting lines, analyzes sharp vs. square betting angles, discusses recent trade deadline moves, and covers every major game on the slate with actionable insights. Chad and Simon lament the rapid progression of the season, reflect on their rough Week 9 results, and emphasize the volatility of betting favorites—especially with big line moves and late-breaking roster news.

The show blends football analysis, sports betting theory, and a candid, bantering tone. Listeners get a comprehensive walk-through of each matchup, with both hosts sharing their leans, warnings, and the rationale behind each early-week betting angle.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Season Reflections and Betting Mindset

• Chad and Simon begin by reflecting on the quick passage of the season and recent betting woes (01:06–05:52).

  • Chad: “When I wrote Week 10, it was shocking to me…I'm already kind of sad. It always hits me when...by the 4:30 games it's dark and I know when I take the garbage out later it's going to be cold and dark and it’s going to be like that. And the only thing that makes me happy on a Sunday is football.” (01:38)
  • Simon: “This is overweight man season. Gotta get bundled up. I love Thanksgiving...the games matter.” (02:42)

• The duo processes a 1–4 record for their best bets last week (“4 favorites did us in”) and note a need to recalibrate after a favorites bloodbath (04:44–05:52).

2. Game-by-Game Previews and Betting Angles

A. Thursday Night: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-8.5)

• Heavy lean on Denver by both hosts due to Raiders' post-overtime fatigue and recent trades.
• Simon: “This is the type of game where...Bo Nix just blows out teams like it's a bad Raiders defense.” (09:03)
• Short week stats: “Teams in this exact spot—6 and 25 against the spread.” (08:24)
• Chad: “Home favorites of more than 9: 61% against the spread. Thank you Killer Sports.” (10:39)
• Both anticipate the Broncos in their contest picks this week.
  • Important Segment: 07:13–11:46

B. Falcons vs. Colts (in Berlin)

• Line moves from 6.5 to 5; pros are on Atlanta but hesitance as line drops.
• Simon: “I don't trust Bennett’s man. I cannot trust this kid. It's so inconsistent. But...just trust the number.” (12:58)
• Monitor for injury and further line shifts before taking a position.
  • Important Segment: 11:50–15:36

C. Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+9.5)

• Hosts agree Miami is a numbers play but both wary of Miami’s inconsistent form and possible roster sell-off.
• Simon: “Bills minus 9.5, they can't stop the run. They’re going against one of the best run blocking teams.” (16:50)
• Awaiting more trade news before betting.
  • Important Segment: 16:07–19:05

D. Giants at Bears (-3.5)

• Both lean Giants due to Bear defensive vulnerabilities.
• Simon: “You guys only beat horrible, terrible teams, right?...The Giants, to me...exact type of team you want to face if you’re the Bears. But...the line makes me want to take the Giants.” (21:35)
• Bears’ defense likely to struggle with mobile QBs.
  • Important Segment: 19:12–24:02

E. Saints at Panthers (-5)

• Cautious endorsement for Panthers but hesitation as line hints at a trap.
• Simon: “We so love the Saints...Are we clouded right now?” (25:45)
  • Discusses Carolina’s rushing edge vs. Saints’ weak run defense.
• Chad: “Bryce Young...he’s becoming a gamer...a quarterback you can lean into when they're underdogs.” (28:03)
  • Important Segment: 24:33–29:24

F. Browns at Jets (-1.5 to -2)

• Strong agreement on Jets due to Cleveland’s QB woes and line movement.
• Simon: “This is almost my Simon says...If you can find the one and a half, grab it.” (30:32)
  • Advise betting before a likely move to 3.
  • Important Segment: 29:44–34:57

G. Jaguars at Texans (+1 to -1)

• Debate struggles with Houston’s backup QB, sharp expectation of line move if Stroud is ruled out.
• Simon: “We like backing the backups in their first start, usually not the second start...be patient, see if we get a plus number here.” (35:32)
  • Important Segment: 34:57–36:44

H. Patriots at Buccaneers (-2.5)

• Chad’s Choice: Bucs, citing a ‘buy low’ spot and superior roster.
• Simon: “We're happy to be selling on the Patriots...I could see them steamroll this Patriots defense. So really interesting the books have held this at two and a half.” (39:21)
  • Important Segment (Notable quote): 37:33–41:40

I. Trade Deadline Live Reactions

• Breaking news: Colts trade two firsts to Jets for Sauce Gardner (41:40).
• Both discuss possible reasoning and on-field impact (“That’s an all in move”).
• Saints trade Rashid Shaheed to Seahawks.
  • Important Segment: 41:40–43:55

J. Ravens at Vikings (+3.5 to +4.5)

• Both agree the opener was way off—Ravens likely to be a heavy public favorite.
• Simon: “Raven...owns NFC teams...Do they have the linebackers to spy Lamar?” (45:33)
  • Moneyline at -210/-225 still playable.
  • Important Segment: 44:29–48:39

K. Cardinals at Seahawks (-6.5)

• Both only interested if Brissett starts for Cardinals (prefer -6.5).
• Simon: “I am not betting Kyler Murray in his first start back after a big injury on the road.” (51:19)
  • Important Segment: 49:01–52:10

L. Lions at Commanders (+8.5)

• Rapid line movement (from 3). Hosts wary of betting big faves after Week 9, but see mismatch in Detroit’s favor.
• Simon: “I see this Detroit offense doing whatever they want. This, this, this Washington defense might be one of the worst in the league.” (53:00)
  • Important Segment: 52:10–54:53

M. Rams at 49ers (-3.5)

• Sharp divide: Rams’ defense is dominant, but line’s move suggests pro action on Niners; injury questions abound.
• Chad: “How are they going to stop Matthew Stafford and how is Christian McCaffrey going to gain any yards? I just...it's a tricky one.” (60:30)
• Simon: “I love our fans, especially like the ones who listen to us... Devonte Adams, eight touchdowns. So it's, it was just all about value and playing the scenario...” (61:13)
  • Important Segment: 54:53–61:44

N. Steelers at Chargers (-3)

• Severe OL injuries for LAC; number moving toward Steelers, but both wary backing either side below +3.
• Simon: “If you can get the plus three on Pittsburgh, that's probably the line to get right now. But I'm really not too favorable of either of these sides.” (65:03)
  • Important Segment: 61:44–65:03

O. Eagles at Packers (-2.5)

• Both see a “buy low” spot on Green Bay, but note substantial professional money on Eagles as a dog.
• Simon: “Doesn't this just feel like a stinky line? This should be a Green Bay spot. So I'm going to dive more into this one right now.” (66:27)
• Chad: “This has to be the buy low, sell high spot. The Eagles, they're like, they're looking like champions the last couple of weeks, so...” (65:13)
  • Important Segment: 65:07–68:10

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad on Bears fandom:
  “It said at the top is, it's so over, the bottom. That to the right is we're so back. To the bottom is it's over. And to the left is we're back. Like, that's the life cycle of a Bears fan. And we lived it all on Sunday.” (19:31)
• Simon on late night stress eating:
  “If you have a full stomach, it just knocks you out. Like, I'll just eat a bowl of pasta...Pasta is literally the worst thing you can possibly eat.” (03:21)
• Simon on the value of key numbers in betting:
  “This is almost my Simon says...If you can find the one and a half, grab it. I could easily see this getting a 2 1/2 3 by kickoff.” (30:32)
• Live trade deadline reaction:
  “We have breaking news. Simon. As we are discussing, Adam Schefter is reporting that the Indianapolis Colts have traded two first round picks to the New York Jets. For Sauce Gardner.” (41:40)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Start | End | |----------------------------------------------|---------|----------| | Reflections, Season Narratives | 01:06 | 05:52 | | Broncos-Raiders Analysis | 07:13 | 11:46 | | Falcons-Colts (Berlin) | 11:50 | 15:36 | | Bills-Dolphins | 16:07 | 19:05 | | Giants-Bears | 19:12 | 24:02 | | Saints-Panthers | 24:33 | 29:24 | | Browns-Jets | 29:44 | 34:57 | | Jags-Texans | 34:57 | 36:44 | | Pats-Bucs, Chad’s Choice | 37:20 | 41:40 | | Trade Deadline Reaction | 41:40 | 43:55 | | Ravens-Vikings | 44:29 | 48:39 | | Cardinals-Seahawks | 49:01 | 52:10 | | Lions-Commanders | 52:10 | 54:53 | | Rams-49ers | 54:53 | 61:44 | | Steelers-Chargers | 61:44 | 65:03 | | Eagles-Packers | 65:07 | 68:10 |

Contest Leans / Picks in Discussion

• Simon Says: Denver -8.5 (Thursday) (07:13, 09:31)
• Chad’s Choice: Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Patriots (37:33)
• Key sides both like but monitoring trade/injury news: Falcons (if +6), Jets (if < -3), Houston (if becomes a dog), Panthers (if line drops), Giants +3.5, Miami (numbers play), Detroit (big favorite, wariness from last week), San Francisco (only if +3.5), Baltimore (prefer moneyline if big favorite), Packers (ugly but value?).

Tone & Style

The hosts balance straight-shooting, joking banter with granular, analytical focus—frequent references to betting psychology, key numbers, professional vs. public action, and live reactions to line moves and breaking news. The language is relatable, sometimes self-deprecating, with recurring inside jokes about stress eating and fandom.

Conclusion

An episode loaded with game breakdowns, sharp/square line analysis, live trade deadline impact, and actionable betting advice for NFL Week 10. The hosts weigh the importance of not overreacting to last week’s favorites fail, advocate for patience amid major line moves and team news, and pull back the curtain on how seasoned bettors adjust early in the week. Essential listening for bettors, contest players, and NFL fans heading into a crucial week of the season.