The Herd with Colin Cowherd – “Sharp or Square”

Episode: NFL Week 10 Reactions – Bills-Dolphins, Ravens-Vikings, Jaguars-Texans, Rams-49ers, Bears-Giants & More
Date: November 10, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" is a deep dive into NFL Week 10, focusing on betting angles, sharp vs. square decisions, and key storylines from marquee matchups such as Bills-Dolphins, Ravens-Vikings, Jaguars-Texans, Rams-49ers, and others. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down what went right, what went sideways, where the sharp money moved, and how analytics and gut feelings differed. They also reflect candidly on their contest picks, standout plays, and coaching performances, blending honest self-assessment with classic betting banter.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Pick Recap & Early Takeaways

Record So Far & Contest Picks

• Entered Sunday at 2-2 on contest picks:
  • Wins: Ravens -3.5, Dolphins +9.5
  • Losses: Bucs -2.5, Cardinals +6.5
  • Remaining: Eagles +2.5 for MNF
• Notable favorites missed from contest: Jets, Texans ("We loved the Jets all week...didn’t put them in the final five...” – Chad @03:50)

Opening Games’ Chaos

• Early games dominated by lopsided scores (“At one point in the early part of the second quarter, the combined scores...was 78 to 3.” – Chad @03:50)

2. Deep Game Reviews & Betting Analysis

Ravens vs. Vikings

• Strategy: Faded JJ McCarthy due to inexperience
• Outcome: Ravens shaky early but pulled away as Lamar and Derrick Henry settled in.
  • “Lamar started making those key throws...it was over. Right. They steamrolled him.” – Simon @07:09
• Market Note: Late sharp money jumped line from -3.5 to -5

Vikings’ Flaws:

• 8 false starts (!) at home, defensive issues versus run, Van Ginkel lone defensive bright spot.
• Quote: “The Vikings cannot figure out how to capitalize on those is the problem.” – Chad @08:25

Buccaneers vs. Patriots

• Contest Loss: Bucs -2.5
• Patriots Coaching: “Vrabel almost outsmarted himself...but this really is a Josh McDaniels game.” – Simon @10:38
• Travion Henderson’s Breakaway Run: “Maybe we need to start taking this Patriots team a little more serious...right on the AFC, which is insane to say.” – Simon @13:25
• Coaching Impact: “Vrabel managed the game. Just brilliant. Brilliant guy. Love him.” – Chad @14:45

Bills vs. Dolphins

• Contest Win: Dolphins +9.5
• Simon’s Hammered Take: Insisted Dolphins were a sharp side all week due to Tua’s comfort as a home dog.
  • "That stat's crazy...he's up to 4-0 in this exact spot as a dog straight up and against the spread..." – Simon @16:43
• Devon Achan Breakout Game: 174 yards.
• Bills’ Woes: Allen off rhythm, turnovers galore.
• Sharps vs. Public: “This was never good...that much reverse line action, especially on a big dog like that.” – Simon @18:18

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

• Bad Beat: Cardinals got steamrolled out of the gate (down 21 in Q1).
• Self-critique: “Worst, right? When you back these dogs and they’re down 21 nothing in the first quarter...” – Simon @21:46
• Hopes for turnover-fueled comeback dashed.

Rams vs. 49ers

• Did Not Pick (last out): “I'm glad I got us to avoid it and take it out...I had a bad feeling.” – Simon @33:37
• Stafford’s Night: 24/36, 280 yds, 4 TDs. “Just killed us. Wouldn’t let us backdoor.”
• Niners Trend: “1-15 ATS after SU win since Christmas 2023.”
• Injury Woes: “Every year it feels like the Niners are trying to overcome some catastrophic injury.” – Chad @34:32

Bears vs. Giants

• Miracle Bears Win: Down 10 with 2:17, up 4 with 1:00 left.
• QB Play: “It was Caleb running it from 18 yards out for that go-ahead touchdown.”
• Resilience Theme: “This Bears team is magic...they just never give up.” – Simon @36:57
• Giant’s Misfortune: Jackson Dart’s fumble & concussion swung outcome.

Jaguars vs. Texans

• Favorite ‘No Contest’ Pick: Texans, not in final contest picks, but performed as expected.
• Wild Line Move: Texans from +1.5 to -1, wild fourth quarter (Jags outscored 26–0).
• Quote: “Total miracle by Davis Mills and the Texans. Kudos. Thank you.” – Chad @42:18

Jets vs. Browns

• Lean Win: Jets +2
• Analysis: “Not a bet on the Jets, it was a bet against Dylan Gabriel.”
• Special Teams Dominance: “Got a special teams touchdown, kick return followed by a punt return...” – Simon @42:56
• QB Play: Fields' stat: 6/11, 54 yards, but “did enough to win this game. And the defense shockingly got stops.”
• Coaching Credit: “Kudos to Aaron Glenn keeping that unit unified.” – Simon @44:09

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Devon Achan’s Breakout Performance

“The other guy who did his thing, who you said would do his thing, was Devon A. Chan, who I mentioned earlier had 174 yards rushing, multiple big gains, multiple touchdowns. It looked like he was playing against a Pee Wee league team out there. They just could not tackle him.”
— Chad Millman [@53:14]

On Matthew Stafford’s Elite Form

“Stafford, hero of the week. ...24 of 36, 280 yards, four touchdowns, no picks. Just. He's out of this world right now. Got to be. If we wake up tomorrow, he's got to be the favorite for mvp. It’s just incredible what he's doing.”
— Simon Hunter [@54:00]

On Betting Process & Regret

"We loved the Jets all week. We didn't put them in the final five..."
— Chad Millman [@03:50]

On Ravens’ Red Zone Play and Vikings’ Issues

“Eight false starts. So at home. At home.”
— Simon Hunter [@09:36]

On the Bears Comeback

“This Bears team is magic. Like you always joke, even if you limp into the playoffs, who cares? You just get Caleb into the dance, let him get a little taste of the speed and how different it is and something to build on heading into the offseason.”
— Simon Hunter [@37:35]

4. Sharp Betting Angles & Market Notes

• Late Line Moves: Heavy late money on Ravens, Dolphins narrowing before kickoff (“number jumped to five at a lot of books before kickoff” – Simon @07:09, “by kickoff...plus seven and a half” – Simon @18:18)
• Contest Selection Philosophy: Only both hosts’ consensus picks make the cut, especially for early/Thursday games.
• Tracking Coaching Edges: Multiple compliments for coaching difference-makers (Vrabel, McDaniels), failures (Bowles/Bucs).

5. Weekly "Shame" & "Hero" Segments

Shame

• Arizona OL: “...when you have an immobile veteran second string quarterback...the one thing you have to do is try to keep that immobile veteran second string quarterback upright or at least give him more than 0.7 seconds to get the ball out.” — Chad Millman [@45:19]
• Todd Bowles/Bucs D: “They got beat by the run game. In a game once again the Drake May struggled. ...Scheme wise they just let that go.” — Simon Hunter [@47:09]

Hero

• Simon for Dolphin’s pick: “When you start, like, talking about a game early in the week, like the Dolphins, and you keep bringing it up and keep bringing it up ... I know enough to make that bet, so I made the bet and I know enough to put the game in the contest.” — Chad Millman [@52:46]
• Devon Achan and Matthew Stafford: Both named for heroic plays and game-changing performances (see above).

6. Early Leans for Next Week

Dogs Stand Out:

• Commanders +2 (vs. Miami in Madrid)
• Jaguars +1.5 (home vs. Chargers)
• Browns +8.5 (vs. Ravens— “It could be like Miami. I hope. Like, I got a couple tens on Miami. That’s how high that number got.” — Simon @59:50)
• Broncos +4 (home vs. Chiefs — “only pros are going to be taking Cleveland here” re: Browns-Ravens line @59:55)

Other Leans:

• Detroit vs. Eagles (wait for line move)
• Arizona +3 vs. 49ers (“I like the dogs this upcoming week. There’s some juicy numbers.” — Simon @61:12)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Opening & Contest Recap: 03:21–06:53
• Ravens-Vikings: 05:55–09:36
• Bucs-Patriots: 09:36–14:45
• Bills-Dolphins: 15:21–19:51
• Seahawks-Cardinals: 21:05–22:52
• Rams-49ers: 31:46–35:42
• Bears-Giants: 35:47–38:20
• Jags-Texans: 38:20–42:18
• Jets-Browns: 42:56–44:50
• Weekly Shame: 45:19–48:53
• Weekly Hero: 52:39–56:41
• Early Leans: 57:49–61:18
• Closing Recap: 61:18–62:05

Tone & Style

• Blunt, direct, and self-critical
• Candid about betting regrets, misses, and sharpest moments
• Bantering camaraderie between hosts
• Analytical but accessible, with sharp-vs-square logic throughout

Summary

This “Sharp or Square” episode is a masterclass for listeners interested in the real-time thinking of pro bettors. Simon and Chad dissect Week 10 with precision, highlighting sharp market moves, contest pick lessons, coach-driven game outcomes, and the perpetual agony-ecstasy swirl of NFL wagering. Memorable stories (Henderson’s breakaway, Stafford’s aging brilliance, the Bears’ wild comeback) and candid logic (both wins and regrets) make this an essential breakdown for those who want deep insights into football betting—whether you played along in the contest or are trying to learn the sharp way.