The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square - NFL Week 11 Reactions

Air Date: November 17, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" with Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dives into NFL Week 11, unpacking key outcomes, sharp betting insights, and gut-wrenching turns from a wild football Sunday. It’s a comprehensive, real-time reaction show, offering honest breakdowns of both betting performance (2-2 on the day, with Philly pending) and the dramatic arcs of major games: Bucs-Bills, Chiefs-Broncos, Bears-Vikings, Packers-Giants, Seahawks-Rams, and more. As always, the banter is candid, energetic, and flavored with the perspective of two seasoned bettors dealing with both heartbreak and triumph.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recap of Contest Picks and Results

• Record so far: 2-2 (wins: Browns +8.5, Panthers +3.5; losses: Rams -3, Bengals +5.5; Eagles -2.5 pending)
• Early theme: This week was a rollercoaster of close covers and gut-punch backdoors.
  • Simon: “A wild, wacky, insane set of games… back doors that shouldn’t have been back doors…” [04:06]

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) vs. Steelers

• Ugly game—early scoring burst, then stagnation into the second half.
• Joe Flacco pick-six proved the undoing; Bengals riddled with penalties on a pivotal late first-half Steelers drive.
• Chad: “If the line’s too good to be true, just stay away. We should have stayed away from this one. This line stunk.” [07:14]
• Lesson: Don’t trust “too good to be true” numbers.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

• Big comeback: Panthers trailed 21-7, stormed back to win behind Bryce Young’s spectacular 448-yard, 3-TD day.
• Coaches’ decisions questioned, confusing 4th-down calls, but Young’s gutsy performance stole the spotlight.
• Simon: “He was valiant, he was courageous, he was glorious. He put the team on his back.” [12:50]
• Falcons’ struggles: 5th straight loss, Raheem Morris on the hot seat.
• Notable: Carolina outscored Atlanta 23-6 from late 2nd quarter onward.

LA Rams (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks

• “Brass Balls” pick gone wrong—Rams defense collected four Darnold INTs, couldn’t exploit them.
• Seahawks backdoor cover with a late touchdown.
• Lackluster Stafford, overly conservative McVay play-calling.
• Chad: “That’s one of those games that makes you kind of hate sports...You get done in by the hook.” [15:34]

Cleveland Browns (+8.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Browns defense led by a monstrous Myles Garrett (4 sacks), kept game within the number despite offensive struggles and QB switch to Shador Sanders.
• Browns covered, never threatened to lose the spread, but outright win eluded them.
• Simon: “Thank God for Miles Garrett.” [16:56]
• Chad: “That number was never in doubt... We got lucky in the contest created eight and a half.” [18:29]

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

• Texans D dominated until final minutes, then surrendered a 95-yard drive for a soul-crushing backdoor cover by Tennessee.
• Simon: “It was just gut-wrenching, sickening, sickening...” [27:03]
• Chad: “Cam Ward covers now, Chad, we kind of have a read on this kid. He’ll do nothing for three and a half quarters and then he’ll have one important drive for gamblers...” [28:11]

Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bills opened as 5.5-point favorites, closed at 6.5.
• Josh Allen delivered a historic performance: “throw for three touchdowns and rush for three touchdowns.” [33:10]
• The line was “fishy” all week—thankfully avoided.
• Simon: “The only person I was thinking about that whole time was Matt Mitchell…that was a brutal game.” [34:42]

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

• Classic Cardinals: Special teams miscues, untimely penalties, squandered chances.
• Jacoby Brissett: NFL-record 47 completions in a game.

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Broncos stun Chiefs, thanks to Bo Nix’s turnaround and a stellar defense.
• Chiefs looked mortal, Mahomes uncharacteristically error-prone.
• Chad: “Not that we’ve been waiting for Mahomes to be dethroned, but we’ve been waiting for him to trip up at least. Right? He’s just had this insane run…” [38:01]
• Denver now controls its destiny for the division.

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

• “Cardiac Calebs”—another wild finish, with Bears again involved in a one-possession thriller.
• J.J. McCarthy’s struggles—a sore spot for Vikings, signs of promise but high volatility.
• Chad: “It’s exciting to see the future of these two coaches...but I still think with both of these guys, they both did stuff in this game I really like...” [43:05]
• Bears positioned for a playoff run, potentially winning the division if the Lions lose.

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon Hunter (on the emotional toll of NFL betting):
  • “I died a couple times today by the back door. And it was truly excruciating.” [16:56]
• Chad Millman (on Bryce Young’s performance):
  • “He was valiant, he was courageous, he was glorious. He put the team on his back.” [12:50]
• Chad (after a swingy Panthers win):
  • “I needed the Panthers. I needed Bryce Young to have a record setting day for himself.” [09:07]
• Simon (on Josh Allen):
  • “It’s rare you see a quarterback throw for three touchdowns and rush for three touchdowns. It’s just an all time game.” [33:10]
• Chad (on Bears-Vikings):
  • “I’m addicted to betting this Bears team. There’s nothing like it. Every week it’s super close and they just find a way to make it close when they shouldn’t be.” [43:05]

4. Shame and Hero of the Week

Shame

• Chad: David Canales (Panthers coach) for “coaching scared” and questionable fourth-down calls [50:13]
  • “There is no math that’s telling you that’s a good decision… he just almost cost us.”
• Simon: Houston Texans defense for allowing a 95-yard, game-tying drive to Tennessee [52:50]
  • “Shame on you, Houston Texans, for letting Cam Ward almost snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.”

Hero

• Chad: Bryce Young, for his record-setting and game-changing performance [54:33]
  • “You’re my hero. I just can’t believe it. We were deader than dead...”
• Simon: Myles Garrett, Browns’ DE, for a dominant four-sack, game-wrecking day [55:10]
  • “He’s the only reason we covered that game today... every single time it seemed like the Ravens had an opportunity...Myles Garrett was in Lamar Jackson’s grill.”

5. Early Leans & Line Angles for Week 12 (With Timestamps)

• San Francisco -7 vs. Carolina [58:43]
  • Both hosts lean toward Carolina; Niners defense looking vulnerable.
• Rams -6.5 vs. Bucs [59:49]
  • Both surprised by the large line; early interest in Bucs.
• Lions vs. Giants: Hypothetical matchup if Lions lose tonight, expect dominant run game vs. NYG [60:46]
• Seattle -12.5 vs. Tennessee [61:28]
  • Chad expects Seattle to “throttle bad teams.”
• Colts +3.5 vs. Chiefs [62:07]
  • Surprised by the hook, targeting Colts versus a struggling Chiefs run defense.
• Bears vs. Steelers [62:56]
  • Bears now favored; watch for potential starter confirmation (Mason Rudolph vs. Rogers).

6. Betting Recap & Contest Picks

| Bet | Result | |------------------------------|-------------| | Browns +8.5 (Chad’s Choice) | WIN | | Panthers +3.5 (Simon’s SVS) | WIN | | Rams -3 (Brass Balls) | LOSS | | Bengals +5.5 | LOSS | | Eagles -2.5 (pending SNF) | TBD |

Early Leans for Week 12:

• Carolina +7 @ 49ers
• Bucs +6.5 @ Rams
• Seattle -12.5 vs. Titans
• Colts +3.5 vs. Chiefs
• Steelers +3 vs. Bears

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [04:06] - Overview of betting swings & results
• [07:14] - The “line’s too good to be true” lesson (Bengals loss)
• [12:50] - Bryce Young’s heroics and Carolina’s comeback
• [15:34] - Rams’ “bad beat” and Seahawks’ backdoor drama
• [16:56] - Browns defense/Myles Garrett heroics
• [27:03] - Texans-Titans meltdown, “gut-wrenching” backdoor
• [33:10] - Josh Allen’s masterpiece (Bucs-Bills)
• [38:01] - Chiefs’ rare stumble, Broncos’ division surge
• [43:05] - Bears-Vikings thriller and rookie QB discourse
• [50:13] - Shame segment (Coaching decisions, Texans defense)
• [54:33] - Hero of the week (Bryce Young, Myles Garrett)
• [58:43] - Early line discussion for Week 12

Episode Tone & Language

Lighthearted, direct, occasionally exasperated—a blend of sports analysis, gambler catharsis, and insider betting banter.

• Chad: more measured, analytical, yet emotional when bets swing wildly.
• Simon: high energy, rides the week’s highs and lows, quick with shame and hero callouts; plenty of “backdoor” anguish.

Memorable Moments

• “We live and die by the back door all the time and this time we died by it.” – Simon [16:56]
• “I’m addicted to betting this Bears team. There’s nothing like it.” – Chad [43:05]
• “He was valiant, he was courageous, he was glorious. He put the team on his back.” – Simon (on Bryce Young) [12:50]

Conclusion

This edition of “Sharp or Square” captures the chaos and exhilaration of NFL Week 11 betting. From emotionally charged game recaps and candid lessons, to early sharp angles on next week’s lines, the show delivers both a mournful look at what could have been and tangible strategies for next week. Simon and Chad’s chemistry, raw as ever, brings both sharp perspective and relatability for seasoned bettors and fans new to the game.

For listeners:

If you're looking for honest, up-to-the-minute betting analysis with real insanity from NFL Sundays—plus which sides and numbers to watch entering Week 12—this episode is a must-listen.