The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square – NFL Week 12 Bets

Date: November 19, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter (Part of The Volume Podcast Network)
Episode Focus: An in-depth betting analysis for every game on the NFL Week 12 slate, breaking down sharp (“wiseguy”) versus square (“public”) perspectives, key trends, matchups, and actionable insights.

Episode Theme

Main Purpose:
Chad and Simon tackle each NFL Week 12 matchup—game by game—debating whether each side is a “sharp” (professional) or “square” (public) bet. They weave in stats, coaching dynamics, historical angles, and sharp/square logic, aiming to help listeners understand how professional bettors approach the weekly slate, and to sharpen the “square” listeners.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Housekeeping & Recap ([03:24])

• Chad is podcasting from a hotel room, balancing his computer on an ice bucket—quintessential road-warrior vibes.
• The duo recaps the previous week:
  • 3–2 record on their five favorite picks (wins: Browns, Panthers, Eagles; losses: Bengals, Rams)
  • Season total: 31–24 ATS through 11 weeks.

Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Buffalo -6 at Houston
Sharp/Square Lean: Lean Bills at -5.5 or -6, but wary of heavy public action on Buffalo.

• Discussion:
  • QB uncertainty for the Texans (CJ Stroud in concussion protocol; Davis Mills possibly starting).
  • Houston’s historically poor primetime record: 15–32 ATS in night games.
  • Bills’ defense vulnerable vs. run (gave up 200+ rushing yards to Bucs).
• Quotes:
  • “It’s definitely a game where, right when you saw the numbers, especially there’s fives and a half out there, it’s like how do you not want to just take the Bills after the game they just had?” (Simon, [05:43])
  • “Thursday games… it doesn’t really matter if it’s a bad matchup—if it’s a guy like Davis Mills playing, it’s a shootout. I just don’t think he can keep up.” (Simon, [06:07])

Timestamps:

• Discussion start: [04:00]
• Stats on Houston primetime: [06:06]
• Final lean: [07:22]

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans

Seattle -13 at Tennessee
Sharp/Square Lean: Unusually high number, but sharp side is Seattle under -14.

• Rationale:
  • Titans play tough at home as big dogs but Seattle crushes bad teams (8–2 ATS this season).
  • Titans have “fluky” covers but seem overmatched here.
• Quotes:
  • “I just blindly would take home dog, especially this big… but I think we just saw Tennessee’s best shot.” (Simon, [10:15])
  • “Seattle should win this game 34–3. Lock it in. Clip that for Monday.” (Chad, [13:08])
• Timestamps:
  • Trends for big favorites: [10:15]
  • Final affirmation for Seahawks: [13:08]

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears

Chicago -3 vs. Pittsburgh
Sharp/Square Lean: Sharp on Pittsburgh +3 as a pure numbers play.

• Discussion:
  • Not a classic Tomlin-dog spot; in fact, Steelers have lost four straight as road dogs.
  • Bears have been winning close, unsustainable margins; regression expected.
  • Both hosts are emotionally torn (“As much as it pains me…”).
• Quote:
  • “At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter. We’re taking the Steelers.” (Chad, [17:59])
• Timestamps:
  • Bears’ “horseshoe luck” and coaching: [15:13]
  • Final decision: [17:59]

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

Detroit -10.5 at home
Sharp/Square Lean: Sharp on Lions -10.5 (Simon’s “Simon Says” pick).

• Rationale:
  • Lions bounce back after a failed 4th down: 8–2 ATS after such games, 13 straight covers off a loss.
  • Goff/Campbell combo is elite ATS after losses.
  • Market’s moved from 11.5 to 10.5 from sharp money on the Giants, but hosts don’t buy the Giants hype.
• Quotes:
  • “Shockingly, going to be my Simon Says presented by Hard Rock Bet: minus ten and a half… tons of stats here.” (Simon, [20:25])
  • “This Lions team has shown us enough… they know how to manage when things aren’t going well… I do believe we’ll see it again this week.” (Chad, [23:09])
• Timestamps:
  • Trends and stats: [20:25]
  • Bounce-back rationale: [23:09]

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore -13.5 at home
Sharp/Square Lean: Lean to Ravens (mostly for pool/teaser players); number is big but Jets are unbettable.

• Discussion:
  • Lamar and Ravens have owned the Jets (winning by avg. 14 points).
  • Ravens as big favorites: 16–11 ATS with Lamar.
• Quote:
  • “My biggest issue is Lamar and this team are definitely not worthy of this number in any sense…” (Simon, [26:06])
• Timestamps:
  • Historical dominance: [26:06]
  • Betting approach: [27:31]

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals -7.5 at home
Sharp/Square Lean: Bengals +7.5 (purely numbers and spot).

• Rationale:
  • Patriots have won eight straight—teams on such streaks are 39% ATS since 2010.
  • Both teams have serious flaws, especially if Flacco doesn’t play for the Bengals.
• Quotes:
  • “Easy bet, easy spot, long-term winner, Bengals… if it’s Joe Flacco, it’s a no-brainer.” (Simon, [36:23])
  • “There is zero information or data I could give you why to back this Bengals team on the field. They are terrible defensively… it’s just simply playing a number on our overvalued Patriots team.” (Simon, [38:54])
• Timestamps:
  • Trends and history: [38:54]
  • Final lean: [39:38]

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs -3 at home
Sharp/Square Lean: Sharp on Colts +3.5 if available (wait for the hook); pure numbers/bounce-back spot.

• Key Points:
  • Defensive scheme: Colts DC Lou Anarumo is Patrick Mahomes’ historical nemesis (last few years with Bengals).
  • Mahomes is just 1-2 SU/ATS vs. Colts.
  • Colts + fresh off a bye vs. rested/ugly Chiefs offense.
• Quotes:
  • “I really love the Colts. It’s stupid, but there’s certain teams players just struggle with, and Mahomes has always struggled against the Colts.” (Simon, [41:25])
  • “Shop around. Go find the 3.5, find the hook on the Colts, because we’ll need it!” (Simon, [44:34])
• Timestamps:
  • Mahomes struggles vs. Colts (schematically): [41:23]
  • Betting approach: [44:34]

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Packers -6.5 at home
Sharp/Square Lean: Pass—no strong edge; both sides flawed.

• Discussion:
  • Pros lean Vikes at 7, but hosts can't trust JJ McCarthy on the road.
• Quote:
  • “You would think this would be such a big moment, too big of a spot for him… I just can't get over how bad JJ is.” (Simon, [45:37])

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders -3 (moving to -3.5)
Sharp/Square Lean: Raiders -3; heavy lean, especially at the key number.

• Trends:
  • Browns QBs making their first start: 0–17 in last 17 (last winner: Eric Zeier, 1995).
  • Browns are 1–11 ATS in this road dog spot since 2022.
• Quotes:
  • “My biggest reason just want to take the Raiders here is just… Sanders possibly might have put up the worst quarterbacking we’ve ever seen…” (Simon, [48:21])
  • “I know there’s a lot of numbers we love for the Raiders, so… I’m going to be heavy on the money line of the Raiders.” (Simon, [49:53])
• Timestamps:
  • Quarterback trends and history: [48:52]
  • Betting approach: [49:53-51:06]

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals

Jaguars -2.5 at Arizona
Sharp/Square Lean: “Chad’s Choice”—Cardinals +2.5 (prefer +3); classic buy-low/sell-high spot.

• Rationale:
  • Jags blew out Chargers but didn’t rely on Trevor Lawrence; run-heavy, low trust in QB.
  • Cards hit “rock bottom” after back-to-back 40-point divisional collapses, expect a bounce-back effort.
  • Trends: since 2016, teams coming off a blowout/comeback are 0–7 ATS.
• Quotes:
  • “This is a team that started off playing very competitive and has been trending worse and worse and worse every single week. But I don’t think Trevor Lawrence is long for the Jacksonville Jaguars.” (Chad, [51:27])
  • “This Jaguars team, this is going to be a public darling. People are hammering them right now and they’re undervaluing a Cardinals team… I like the Cardinals here.” (Simon, [53:04])
• Timestamps:
  • Spotlight: [51:19]
  • Trend breakdown: [53:04]

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Saints -2 at home
Sharp/Square Lean: Pass—Kirk Cousins’ road/prime time stats atrocious; but teams are both fading.

• Stats:
  • Cousins: 0–6 ATS last six starts, 0–3 ATS in Superdome.
• Quote:
  • “He’s gotten worse, and the numbers back it up. He's consistently gotten worse… I can't back him here.” (Simon, [55:51])

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas +3 at home (down from PHI -4.5)
Sharp/Square Lean: Pros betting Cowboys at +3/+3.5; hosts think line’s an overcorrection for PHI offensive struggles and inflated Cowboys D.

• Key Questions:
  • Is the Cowboys defense truly improved?
  • How much does Lane Johnson’s absence matter for Eagles' offense?
  • Trends: Eagles 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in Kelly Greens since ‘23.
• Quotes:
  • “Shocking to me. The Eagles are so, so much better than this Cowboys team, in every aspect.” (Simon, [58:29])
  • “The Eagles offense is so bad right now. It's so dysfunctional it has to catch up to them…” (Simon, [58:59])
  • “I’ve just been hoping this number keeps dropping so I can play the Eagles.” (Chad, [61:30])
• Timestamps:
  • Worry over Eagles O-line injuries: [57:30]
  • Analysis of market move and public lean: [58:29]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday Night Football)

Rams -6.5 at home
Sharp/Square Lean: Slight lean to Rams, but no strong confidence.

• Points:
  • McVay after divisional games: 30-17-4 ATS.
  • Baker’s terrible prime time record: 2-11 SU, 4-9 ATS at night, 0-8 as >FG dog in these spots.
• Quote:
  • “I hate going against Baker, but he just struggles in this spot.” (Simon, [70:11])
• Timestamps:
  • Baker’s night-game struggles: [69:56]

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (Monday Night Football)

49ers -7 at home
Sharp/Square Lean: Panthers +7 — public and sharp money align.

• Trends:
  • Panthers are 5–16 ATS after a 30+ point game.
  • 49ers just 8–15 ATS at home since 2023, 1–15 ATS after a win+cover on the road.
• Quotes:
  • “I am too. I just do not get this number. It’s another game… I could not believe we were getting the Panthers plus seven.” (Simon, [71:39])
• Timestamps:
  • Home undervaluing of 49ers: [72:47]
  • Panthers bounce back, public/pro alignment: [74:28]

Notable Quotes & Moments

On Regression, Bears Magic, and Numbers

“We’ve talked about—Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass now for five, six weeks. It’s just been incredible, the games they’ve pulled out and won where they’re just… not playing their best, but just so well coached.” (Simon, [15:13])

On Betting Against the Trend

“There are teams that get on a roll and they go eight, nine, ten games where they win by one score, and you keep expecting it every week. Like, how do you figure out when the regression is going to come? That’s what makes it so difficult… it’s like timing the market. How do you time the freaking market?” (Chad, [16:50])

On Knowing When to Pass

“You would think this would be such a big moment, too big of a spot for him… I just can't get over how bad JJ is.” (Simon, [45:37])

On Overreaction & Market Moves

“Can we not talk about Atlanta at New Orleans? …It’s icy hot bowl two after the Flacco-Rogers game.” (Chad, [55:14])

On Professional vs. Public Money

“It's a unique spot. The lines, that was the first time they haven't scored double digits in like 50 games… I just don't think the public would be on them here. So that's why I'm making it this. But I just don't think people are a little scared off by them right now and they might be sucked in on this Giants team…” (Simon, [24:48])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Bills-Texans debate: [04:00] – [09:13]
• Seahawks-Titans: [09:13] – [13:25]
• Steelers-Bears: [13:25] – [19:01]
• Lions-Giants: [19:01] – [25:45]
• Jets-Ravens: [25:45] – [27:31]
• Patriots-Bengals: [36:23] – [39:38]
• Colts-Chiefs: [40:10] – [44:34]
• Vikings-Packers: [44:34] – [46:52]
• Browns-Raiders: [46:52] – [51:06]
• Jaguars-Cardinals: [51:06] – [55:14]
• Eagles-Cowboys Deep Dive: [57:30] – [62:11]
• Bucs-Rams (SNF): [67:07] – [70:11]
• Panthers-49ers (MNF): [70:11] – [74:28]

Original Tone & Style

• Signature blend of stats, sarcasm, and camaraderie, with running inside jokes and exclamation over betting gripes and “magical teams.”
• Deeply opinionated, but open to changing positions as more info (injuries, line moves, public money) emerges.

Quick Reference: Hosts' Favorite Bets (“Lock It In”)

• Simon Says: Lions -10.5 (bounce-back, historical trends)
• Chad’s Choice: Cardinals +2.5 or +3 (home dog, public overreaction)
• Bengals +7.5: Purely numbers/schedule spot.
• Raiders -3: Fade Browns rookie QB, road splits, historical futility.
• Colts +3.5: Defensive scheme, Mahomes struggles, historical bye/week spot.

Summary Takeaway

This dense, stats- and trend-rich episode of "Sharp or Square" delivers foundational lessons in sharp NFL betting. Chad and Simon walk listeners through a methodical process for evaluating not just matchups, but underlying market psychology, historical patterns, and—perhaps most importantly—when to ride with the “ugly” side others overlook.

Whether you’re a square looking to become sharper, or a wiseguy looking to join the conversation, this episode offers actionable picks and the reasoning behind them—majoring in the art of long-term, value-driven NFL betting.

To hear how their final five shake out, check Thursday’s follow-up or watch on the Sharper Square YouTube channel!