← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL Week 12 Bets: Bills-Texans, Giants-Lions, Bucs-Rams, Colts-Chiefs, Eagles-Cowboys, Jets-Ravens and more
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Is the story of the one as head of maintenance at a concert hall, he knows the show must always go on. That's why he works behind the scenes, ensuring every light is working, the H Vac is humming, and his facility shines with Grainger's supplies and solutions for every challenge he faces. Plus 24. 7 customer support. His venue never misses a beat. Call quitgranger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done. The show was ahead of its time to represent a Black family in ways that television hadn't shown before. Exactly. It's Thelma Hopkins, also known as Aunt Rachel, and I'm Kelly Williams or Laura Winslow.
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On our podcast welcome to the Family Withlma.
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We're rewatching every episode of Family Matters. We'll share behind the scenes stories about making the show. Yeah, we'll even bring in some special guests to spill some tea. Listen to welcome to the Family with Telma and Kelly on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Hey, I'm Kyle McLaughlin. You might know me as that guy from Twin Peaks, Sex and the City, or just the Internet Stand. I have a new podcast called what Are We Even Doing? Where I embark on a noble quest to understand the brilliant chaos of youth culture. Each week I invite someone fascinating to join me to talk about navigating this high speed rollercoaster we call reality. Join me and my delightful guests every.
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Thursday and let's get weird together in a good way.
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Listen to what Are We Even doing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A man with down syndrome tries the impossible, the grand slam in turkey hunting. 4:53 hits. We're legal, shooting light. And he gives us this one last.
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And he pitches off. And when he pitches off, he flies.
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Right into the Gun barrel. I said to the cameraman, do you have him?
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He said, shoot him. I said, justin, shoot.
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You can download this episode and others.
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From Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or.
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Wherever you get your podcast.
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Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
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Chad. How we doing, brother?
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Brother. I gotta be a little muted today cause I'm sitting in a hotel room. I'll be in a hotel room for our next two shows. If you could see, this is the beauty of podcasting in the modern age. My computer is balanced on the top of a turned over ice container and there is a light that is half hanging on to the edge of my computer. So if we get through this whole show and I'm on Hotel Wi Fi, if we get through this whole show and nothing collapses, that will be the miracle.
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B
No, I got good faith. We've had a good run with Hotel Wi Fi.
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We're also having a good run lately. We went 3 and 2 last week in our five favorite picks. We won with the Browns, we won with the Panthers, we won with the Eagles on Sunday night. Great call by you. We lost with the Bengals and we lost with the Rams for the year. Take a look at the graphic everyone can see. This is where they get the official updates on our progress. 3124 through 11 weeks of the season. Sometimes I wish I was only betting these five games and I didn't bet anything else because I feel like it's the other games that are completely screwing me up. Simon, this is our Tuesday show. We'll get through the entire slate. If you want to see what the final five are, you got to check out the show Sunday AM on Sharper Square YouTube page. Don't forget, subscribe to Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. All right. Thursday Night Football. Interesting game. Buffalo at Houston. Houston is a six point underdog at Hard Rock. Five and a halfs in a lot of other places. Look, I mean, who's playing qb? And I don't mean for the Texans. I mean is it Josh Allen who can be inconsistent and looks like he's pressing and is missing receivers? Or is it Josh Allen, the superhuman who had six touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in a game that I think Everyone is still getting over the hangover because it was so freaking wild from the opening drive.
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The Bills were unstoppable. It's definitely a game where right when you saw the numbers especially there's five and a half's out there, it's like how do you not want to just take the Bills after the game they've just had and what you just said, what we've seen from Davis Mills and we expect to trip his Texas team. So I, I don't know. I, I kind of want to take the Texans now that we're at 6, but I don't think CJ CJ is going to play and that's.
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I don't know if he is either.
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Concussions, it's like everyone's affected differently for them. So it's really tough to even try to predict it. And it's the type of thing where we don't know it's all in house. My biggest issue would definitely be Houston as a home team. I don't know, they just, it's not like they have that huge home field advantage. And yeah, even their primetime numbers of franchise just aren't good. It's pretty alarming. They're 18 and 31 straight up, 15 and 32 against the spread in night games. So it's just, it doesn't matter who the quarterback is. Historically it's not a good spot for them. So Makes sense the early money's coming in from the professionals and the public all lined up on the spills team with so much unknownless Texans team. So I guess I'll go Bills minus five and a half for now if you can find it but like we said, it's already minus six a hard rock. I could still I guess take the Bills but I know it's super publicly and it's going to be all public money but we've seen these Thursday games. It's just, it doesn't really matter if it's a bad matchup and it's a guy like Davis Mills playing, it's a shootout. I just don't think he can keep up. So these short week games are just tough. And you know, we expect Josh Allen to have a letdown game after putting up six touchdowns, but maybe he's on a roll so I'm not going to try to get in front of that. I don't know about you, John.
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No, no. Josh Allen with the epic, I guess backdoor, the rare backdoor favorite cover being down one with five minutes left and winning that game by 12 is what closed at a six and a half point favorite, Davis Mills. Look, it's a short week. CJ still on the protocol. He we don't know what's going to be happening. He hasn't been cleared yet. They got the Bills, Colts and Chiefs on the docket. The Texans are.500. You wonder, all right, do they sit him one more game, make sure that he's healthy for the division game where that might be in the standings for the playoffs. Potentially more important down the road, Davis Mills. I thought this was interesting. Again, I'm not advocating for betting the Texans in any way. Davis Mills had another last fourth quarter come from behind win on Sunday. That was his second in a row. The last time Davis Mills started a game before this season was the last game of 2023 when he led a come from behind win for the Texans when they were in position to have the number one overall pick. But that win knocked them out of the number one overall pick. The Texans might very well have Bryce Young right now instead of CJ Stroud if Davis Mills does not win that game for Lovey Smith, who immediately got fired for getting his team to win at the end of that 2023 season. My point in saying all that is who knows, Maybe Davis Mills is just really good in the fourth quarter at the only time that matters. And the rest of the game he's just torture to watch.
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Possible, yeah, but that's impossible. Consistent to now it is.
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The Bills also gave up 200 yards to the Tempe Buccaneers rushing on on Sunday, so we know that their defense has not gotten better. It's going to be Can Josh Allen do something against this Texans defense? That's really going to be the game. Seattle -13 versus Tennessee they're visiting the Tennessee Titans. We talked about this one on Sunday night. You pegged it immediate. I know. I bet Seattle on Sunday at 12 and a half. I'm assuming you did as well. Totally a big number. But the defense is as good as, let's say Houston's that just played the Titans and held them to 13 points and it took a miracle to get there. And its offense is so much better than Houston's or the Chargers for that matter, both of which were in position to cover big numbers late in the game. So I feel like the universe should write itself with this one.
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Yeah, and I said this is a spot I would never usually take. I just blindly would take home dog, especially this big. And a lot of the numbers do back it up. Playing dogs this this big at home. Just so people know why this is a rare spot for me to see alex. So since 2020 favorites of 11 points or more, 3 and 7 against the spread, which is pretty bad, they're actually 5 and 5 straight up in those games. So it's a weird thing where they. These teams that are big favorites, juggernauts, lose these games. But I don't think it's here. I think we just saw Tennessee's best shot that we could four in a divisional game.
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I agree.
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Now they're facing an absolute juggernaut. So I just said those trends just to give up. People couldn't believe when I was saying I like the Seahawks. And I said I usually blindly would bet Tennessee in the spot, but this late in the season, with a number this big, like I said, the books were going to be begging for Tennessee money. And they opened it too short. And I think it's still too short. Like, why is this not above 14 here? So Tennessee, we've seen it this year. We've been burned by it. These fluky, random points they get, like Chad said, those late touchdowns or field goals by Ward, they just, they've been a covering machine. But here it feels like it's a great spot for Seattle, who they are 8 and 2 against the spread this season. Seattle, so like they've been covering pretty well with these big numbers and it's really, if you go and look, it's them being up on bad teams. They do really well against bad teams. So I think it's just their defense is so, so well coached. They really don't give an inch. And then offensively, we just saw Sam Donald have his worst game of the year. It just feels like the exact spot he needs to get right. So with Jeffrey Simmons back, I don't really think Seattle. Seattle will have much of a run game option, but passing wise, they should torch this secondary. So, yeah, still like this number, as long as you're getting under 14.
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Look, the run game hasn't been that great anyways. That's been sort of the issue for Seattle. So I think this is a really good opportunity for Darnold to get right. And I think we did get a little bit of a lower number on Sunday. And even today because of the stink of what Darnold did and people thinking, oh, Sam Darnold, he's back. He's seeing ghosts again. I don't think that's the case. We've seen him have bad games. He had a bad game in the playoffs last year against the Rams and then came back and has been An MVP candidate for most of the year. So this is when you reassert yourself as an MVP candidate is against a very bad Tennessee Titans team.
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And I broke my rule last week. I, I just said, I, I will blindly bet Seattle as a, as a road team. They're just, they've just been so good to me and you know, under their head coach, they're 9 and 3 against the spread in the season, they're 5 and 1. So they're just covering machines on the road. They just get up on a McDonald's. So we, we gotta bet it. I don't know, it's just. I just, I'm trying not to let the numbers scare me off. It's an insane number, but I think Seattle's worthy of it. They're just a really talented team.
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You know what's weird? We talked about it on Sunday. I didn't hesitate, didn't feel like. Felt like a big number that Seattle should win this game 34 to 3. Lock it in. Clip that for Monday.
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That'd be nice.
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Pittsburgh at Chicago. Chicago is a three point favorite. This opened at two and a half after the Mason Rudolph, Aaron Rodgers. After Aaron Rodgers was injured in the game and it became clear, or at least people thought Mason Rudolph would be starting this next week. Aaron Rodgers has a fractured left wrist. Surgery not required. It's still not determined if he will be playing this Sunday, but this is a Mason Rudolph line today. Simon. According to Owen Millman via Larry Mayer on Twitter. This was texted to me right before we started recording by Owen. Today is Caleb Williams 24th birthday. He was born November 18, 2001. According to Larry Mayer and Owen Millman, he is the only player currently on the Bears roster who was born on a day that the Bears played a game. They beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2724 behind three touchdowns from Jim Miller. Not so Bears legend who turned into a Bears broadcasting legend. He threw three touchdowns to Marty Booker. Bears won 27 24. Tampa Bay needs to be first place.
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Chicago. Jim Miller to Marty Booker. Nailed by John lynch with Booker whole time.
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Touchdown. Welcome, Dano. Happy birthday to our favorite quarterback, Caleb Williams. Will you be betting again on Caleb Williams this weekend? Simon?
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I hate this game so much because it's like I feel like I have to go against the Bears. I feel like I'm blind.
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I do too. Yeah, it's too much. It's too shockingly much.
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It's not a Tomlins spot like we. We make it out to be. Evan had some really great stats on this game and the biggest one, one I took away from this one was just as a road underdog. What Tomlin's been doing lately, he's actually lost four straight, straight up and against the spread. And that's the first time it's happened for Pittsburgh since 2011. So it's kind of interesting. They've. He's actually struggled in this spot on the road as a dog as. As of late, but it's like, all right, well, what kind of Bear stats do I have to go against here? Because I just can't. We've talked about. The Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass now for five, six weeks. Like, it's just been incredible, the games they've pulled out and won where they're just. They're not playing their best, but they're just so well coached, and they just find a way. They just keep believing in themselves. And this is a unique spot. Bears, who won three straight games by five points or less in the last 20 years, teams in this exact spot, they went 12 and 23 against the spread in that six game. So historically, it usually catches up to them more. So the fact that they're a favorite now, is it because of Mason Rudolph? Like, we've bet. We've bet Pittsburgh with Mason Rudolph, Doug Hodges, We've. We've bet this before in the spot chat. So, like, the fact that the public hates Pittsburgh. The public's over the Bears as well. Finally, what feels like every week the public's kind of gone against the Bears here. It feels like it's the right spot to take the Steelers, but it's pain in me. I just. I don't want to go. But there's something magical about this Bears team. They're just so well coached, and I think they'll be able to run the ball against the Steelers team, but we've seen it. Tomlin flies away. And I just think this is just playing the number. It's. It's too. It's too big. A plus three.
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Yeah, I agree. As much as it pains me to bet against the Bears in this spot, all of it just feels. We saw that. We've seen this before, right? We've seen this with the Vikings a couple years ago. We saw this with the Giants and Brian Dabel's first year. We saw it with the Chiefs last year. There are teams that get on a roll and they go eight, nine, ten games where they win by one score, and you keep expecting it every week. Like, how do you. How do you figure out when the regression is going to come? That's what makes it so difficult, because at some point, you either gotta get off the train and try to time that perfectly. It's like timing the market. How do you time the freaking market? You know, who's everybody?
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Your team. Like, they're graded as the. One of the worst teams in NFL history in the last, like, 25 years. To be seven and three. Just like, all the underlining numbers and data.
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Totally.
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That's why I love football. It's like, it don't matter. You got to line up and play the game. They keep finding a way. So I. I get what people are saying, but at the end of the day, it doesn't matter.
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Meaning it doesn't matter. We're taking the Steelers.
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Still taking the Steelers. But I'm just saying, as a Bears fan, I wouldn't care. It's like, we know our team's not that good. We're seven and three. Who cares?
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Yeah. Oh, totally. But I did. I will tell you this. I will tell you this, as a Bears fan. You know, I watch all the videos. Ben Johnson in the locker room. He's amazing. You know, good, better, best. Never let it rest. All those kinds of things. I also thought to myself, oh, my God, there's still seven games left in the year. I can't. The way the Bears have played and the way they've won, They've won these games. I could easily see them losing their next seven games.
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Yeah, the magic number is three to me. If you can get three wins with. You guys have a brutal schedule on the season, you can get the.
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That's what I mean.
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You can get the 10 wins. That's why, like, it's tough for me here, where I know you how desperate they are. They need to win this one. But that doesn't matter in football. Like, it doesn't matter if you need to win this game. It's really about the number. And, yeah, I just think plus three on the Steelers is right.
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All right, Simon, talking about numbers, New York Giants visiting the Detroit Lions. This number has moved from 11 and a half to 10 and a half since the Lions got just beat up, hammered, bamboozled, by the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night. And look, the Giants. We talked about it last week with Jameis. We had to bet on Jameis just for a little taste, because of the roller coaster that is the full Jameis experience. And we got it with Jameis last week, where he had that team in contention to win the game, leading for much of it. Then they're down seven points with 44 seconds left. They're on the Packers 18 yard line. Jameis goes back to pass, throws it to the end zone. Jalen Hyatt picked off in the corner of the end zone. You can't blame Jameis for this one a he covered because the number was seven and a half. So God bless. But also Jalen Hyatt just gave up on the route and this was not a Jameis Winston tragedy. It was Jalen Hyatt not doing his job. I don't know that the Giants have the same dead cat bounce against a desperate, desperate. And that's what they are right now. Detroit Lions team.
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It's shockingly going to be my Simon says.
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Check Simon says.
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Presented by Hard Rock Bet minus ten and a half. I want to play a game. Simon says. Wow, it's. It's a big favorite, but it's really about this lines and how we always just play this spot and it's just good to us. We always talk about giving out long term winners and this is the definition of 1. Tons of stats here. Why it's so good to back the Lions here. And it's a unique spot. Right? You're coming off a week where they didn't convert a single fourth down, where immediately as soon as that happened, it's good, I was like, all right, I got to find some stats. Hello, Detroit, you've won my heart. What is this Lions team like after they don't get a single fourth down the week before? Shockingly, they're nine and one straight up, which, you know, okay, they do bounce back after the struggle of the week, but they're 8 and 2 against the spread in games after they fail to convert a fourth down. So pretty apparent they bounce back in this game. And those games they've covered, they've covered by an average of 10 points per game in that spot. So that's just bringing in what it's like after they struggle on fourth down. Now let's get to all the golf stats. We know golf in these games. He's always big at bouncing back because lines have just been so good and we've Talked the last three years they've been 70% against the spread. So you're gonna have some really good stats with golf and Campbell as a combo. And also straight up loss, they're 22 and 8 against the spread. So they just tend to bounce back and the books don't account for it. So we always play that spot. And they're actually shockingly covered 13 in a row in this spot. So they haven't not covered after a loss since November 1st of 2022. Shout out to my guy Evan Abrams. That's an amazing stat where it's like they're just a machine after these type of losses and you go okay, well this is a big spread. What is their record when the spread's above 4? Golf and Campbell they're perfect. 80 against the spread when the spread is higher than 4 after a straight up loss. So feels like a really good bounce back spot. We talk all the time golf indoors after a loss 247 against the spread. So it's like again it just all points to it. And just look at the on field matchup wise. The getty the getting upfield can be neutered by the Giants with a good run game. We know what Detroit want to do. They want to run the ball. They just couldn't get it done against an Eagles team that just has a really different front. They argue great against the run because they have great linebackers which the Giants do not. That's the the Giants biggest weakness. So love the match of the Lions. Love all the trends for this Lions team. And yeah, I can't believe it. Making it over 10 point favorite. My favorite bet. But I've just been betting heavy into it so I figured I'd give it out.
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Can I support you? Because I want to support you Because I will support you. Which Lions team are we getting? Right? That's what people are going to ask. Are we getting the Lions in outdoors week one who scored six points against the Packers? Are we getting the Lions outdoors in Week 11 who scored nine points against the Eagles? Or are we getting the lions in Week 2 who beat the Bears at home indoors by 31? Are we getting the team that beat the Browns indoors at home by 24? Are we getting the team that beat the Bucks indoors at home by 15?
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It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been this excited about the Lions.
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Talk about receiving, scoring the roar.
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Listen to him.
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Who do we think the Giants are more like the Bears in Week two? The Browns Whenever. That's why I feel confident like everything you just said about a bounceback spot and Jared Goff and this team has shown us enough that they know how to manage when things aren't going well and they will have a, a a sort of mentality that does not accept this kind of performance. We've already seen it multiple times this year. I do believe we will see it again this week. You get the Giants betting against Jameis and the full Jameis experience does not scare me here. Simon, you're my bff. You're my compadre, you're my co host. I'm with you 100%, minus 10 and a half for this. I will ask that in return you support me later in the show.
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B
That's fair. And like I said, it's just a unique spot. The lines, that was the first time they haven't scored double digits in like 50 games. So, you know, they got embarrassed like we last week putting up nine points and you know, I just don't think the public would be on him here. So that's why I'm making it this. But I just don't think people are a little scared off by them right now and they might be sucked in on this Giants team of this number. I just, I want you to take the lines here. It's too low. This number should be closer to 13. But you're getting some points here because one team covered and looked pretty well, played pretty well where the Lions just got embarrassed and that's the last thing people remember.
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A
Look, we do have to ask, why do we think it moved from 11 and a half to 10 and a half on, you know, Sunday night and Monday? Because that wasn't the public betting into the 11 and a half.
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B
Yeah, well, I mean, the professionals have betting the Giants this year and it's been good for them. So it's probably what it is. They just, they like the Giants. It's profitable. But the Giants this year we don't.
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A
And we'll take all the sharp calls.
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B
Yeah, we really haven't.
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A
New York jets at Baltimore Ravens. Ravens are 13 and a half. This move down half a point. We're already on the Seahawks. We're already on the Lions. I feel no need to figure out a way to bet the Ravens and I can't find a way to bet the Jets.
- [26:07]
B
I don't know. I shockingly kind of like the Ravens. But I get what you're saying. I just. I can't get over how bad this jets team is and terrible. Like, my biggest issue is Lamar in this team. They're definitely not worthy of this number in any sense. They have not played well consistently at all this season. The hardest part for me is just going through all the numbers where it's like the Lamar, the Ravens, they own the jets every time they play. They just dominate this team historically and you know, at home, Ravens 6, 0, straight up 5 and 1 against the spread against the jets winning by 14 points per game historically. And I don't know if People know this. The Ravens only been around since like 99 or 2000. It's not like a long battle. They've just dominated in the last 25 years. Lamar is more of an 8 point favorite his career, he's 1611 against the spread. So if you are going to bet the Ravens, I get it. I think me and Chad have already talked about we're already enough favorites this week. I can avoid this, but I get it. Like I'm tempted here. I just think this jets team's atrocious and they could easily get rolled here in many different ways. So I, I, I, I got away with the last week of Cleveland, I guess this Ravens team. I'm not trying to go back to the, well, the jets. So I'll end up in my pickpools, probably end up on the Ravens. But I know people. I'm on three huge favorites this week. It's, it's a weird week.
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A
Well, look, that I was just going to say like the flip side is we just bet the Ravens to cover our bases to make sure if we're betting three, three big favorites, we got them all and we don't choose the two that lose and we leave out the one that wins the My buddy.
- [27:44]
B
Is a sucker who bets 10 point like teasers. He is loving this week and I'm like, my God, this is usually not.
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A
A good sign the first game. I agree with you about Lamar in the first game against Miami. To me he wasn't great but that was sort of an ease yourself in game. After the injury and last week we knew we didn't expect him to be great because it was against the Browns and it was a rock fight. This to me feels like when with the Ravens having now won four, four in a row, this is when Lamar sort of gets comfortable and unleashes knowing that he's not against division rival on the road and it's not his first game back when he's a little bit, still a little bit tentative. So I can't bet the Jets. So it's Ravens or nothing here. A word from our sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey, football. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're not sure what to place your first bet on, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hop. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie, and neither does the data in there. Here's one that stood out to me again. Green Bay's Josh Jacobs has now scored a touchdown in 14 straight games versus NFC opponents. Check out the Stats Hub now. Get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook anytime you're in Florida, and it's also live in Arizona, Ohio. News New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states, too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800-9, gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. This is the story of the One as a custodial supervisor at a high school, he knows that during cold and flu season, germs spread fast. It's why he partners with Grainger to stay fully stocked on the products and supplies he needs, from tissues to disinfectants to floor scrubbers, all so that he can help students, staff and teachers stay healthy and focused. Call 1-800-GRAINGER click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [31:07]
B
Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way.
- [31:12]
A
Can we get a Thanksgiving first? I'm hungry. Hey y', all, it's Kadeen and Deval, the hosts of Ellis Ever after podcast. This holiday season, whether you're cooking for the family, out buying gifts for the kids, or crowded in holiday traffic, tune.
- [31:27]
B
Out the noise and tune in to Ellis Ever After.
- [31:30]
A
On Ellis Ever after, we get real with our crew about family. If you feeling like you feeling that's probably cause you a good parent friendship. Be careful what you put in your body. Move your body and love it the way you love them cars, that house, them clothes, them shoes, them brunches. Love yourself them brunches. Love and marriage. You know what's become attractive to me? And it's because I've self corrected and I guess I detoxified myself.
- [31:55]
B
Accountability.
- [31:56]
A
Oh yeah.
- [31:57]
B
Like it has become so attractive to.
- [32:00]
A
Me and everything else in between.
- [32:02]
B
I've told my most embarrassing moment on this podcast before, which was me taking a in a Ziploc bag.
- [32:07]
A
So listen to Ellis Ever after on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. You know the shade is always shadiest right here. Season six of the podcast Reasonably Shady. Gisele Bryan and Robyn Dixon is here dropping every Monday as two of the founding members of the Real Housewives Potomac. We're giving you all the laughs, drama and reality news you can handle. And you know, we don't hold back. So come be reasonable or shady with us each and every Monday, I was going through a walk in my neighborhood. Out of the blue, I see this huge sign next to to somebody's house.
- [32:49]
B
Okay.
- [32:50]
A
The sign says, my neighbor is a Karen.
- [32:58]
B
No way.
- [32:59]
A
I died laughing. I'm like, I have to know. You are lying. Humongous, y'. All. They had some time on their hands. Listen to Reasonably Shady from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [33:20]
B
It's okay not to be okay sometimes.
- [33:22]
A
And be able to build strength and love within each other. Thanksgiving isn't just about food. It's a day for us to show up for one another. I'm Eliot Khani, host of the podcast.
- [33:33]
B
Family Therapy, a series where real families.
- [33:35]
A
Come together to heal and find hope.
- [33:37]
B
What would be a clue that would be like?
- [33:39]
A
I've gotten lots of text messages from him.
- [33:40]
B
This one's from a little bit better.
- [33:42]
A
Of a version of him because he's feeding himself well. It's always a concern like, are you eating well? He's actually an amazing cook. There was this one time where we had neighbors and I saved their dog and I ended up inviting them over for food. And that was like, one of my proudest moments.
- [33:58]
B
This is family Therapy. Real families, real stories on a journey to heal together.
- [34:04]
A
Listen to season two of Family Therapy every Wednesday on the Black Effect Podcast Network, iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Danny Shapiro, host of the.
- [34:17]
B
Hit podcast Family Secrets we were in the car like a rolling stone came on and he said, there's a line in there about your mother. And I said, what?
- [34:26]
A
What I would do if I didn't.
- [34:28]
B
Feel like I was being accepted is choose an identity that other people can't have.
- [34:32]
A
I knew something had happened to me in the middle of the night, but I couldn't hold on to what had happened.
- [34:39]
B
These are just a few of the moving and important stories I'll be holding.
- [34:43]
A
Space for on my upcoming 13th season of Family Secrets.
- [34:49]
B
Whether you've been on this journey with me from season one or just joining.
- [34:53]
A
The Family Secrets family, we're so happy to have you with us.
- [34:57]
B
I'll dive deep into the incredible power.
- [35:00]
A
Of secrets, the ones that shape our identities, test our relationships, and ultimately reveal who we truly are. Listen to Family secrets on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Simon the New England Patriots are visiting the Cincinnati Bengals and the Bengals are seven and a half point favorites. Joe Flacco may still be banged up. Jamar Chase will not be in the game because he was spitting on Jalen Ramsey. Everything about this game with a Bengals secondary that is so suspect and so susceptible to big plays. Second most yards per pass, the most epa highest EPA per pass, the fourth lowest QB pressure rate. I don't think I need to go on yet. The fact that the hook is still out there baiting us is weird to me because it's clear the books are just hoping against hope, against hope. The professional betters are going to come in on the Bengals because they know how much money they're going to get on the Patriots.
- [36:23]
B
Yeah, easy bet, easy spot, long term winner, Bengals. If it's Joe Flacco, it's a no brainer. But if it's not, I am happy to not have zero dollars and not invest in this game and walk away from it. So I got money to burn. I can bet, I'll bet the Bengals here. People want to be patient and make sure it's Flacco. I. I can't fault you for it because I will not have any money invested in a Bengals quarterback not named Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow. So to me, if you're looking for why this is such a magical spot, it's it's the key thing we talk about all the time with football is how hard it is to win consistently. It is so hard to string together wins consistently. And that's what's been shocking about this Patriots team and they're in a unique spot. They've won eight straight games. This team that like again another team, the nerds are just beaten up because they're just not as good as their record perceives and how the public perceives them. They're just simply not. So it's a thing where I like, I love and respect for Abel and I think that's part of the record and how great May is played. Obviously MVP level. But again, eight straight games they've won. Now they're on the road. Teams in this exact spot since 2010, 14 and 34 against the spread nightmare. And like you just keep going back. You know, teams on eight win streak are 39, 60, 61 and two against the spread. So 39% since 2010, that's 11 and 20 and one against the spread since 2020. So like all these numbers I keep giving you people, it's just a really, really bad spot. It's just hard to play at a high level consistently and just not have things bounce against you. Like we say all the time, it's a really stupid game with a weird shad ball. It's just not going to bounce your way and eventually it's going to catch up to you. So we're simply playing the number here. There is 0, 0 information or data I could give you. Why to back this Bengals team on the field. They are terrible defensively. The Patriots especially scheme wise can out scheme them. Drake May is playing at such a high level, it's just simply playing a number on our overvalued Patriots team. Are. Are they better than the Bengals? Yeah. Are they seven and a half points better when it's Joe Flacco? No, that's. That's an egregious number where I think the Bengals can keep it close and this, this Patriots defense can be passed on. So it's just once again not going to be hammered because it's Chase is out. We don't yet know yet who's gonna be the quarterback, but historically it's just a bad spot for this Patriots team. But the books, the number reflects that. If this was six and a half, I could talk us into taking the Patriots right now. It was still under 7, but it's not. It's just moved too much in my opinion. I got to give out the seven and a half on the Bengals.
- [38:55]
A
Totally agree. This is a week where there's a lot of from a historical betting perspective and from the way professionals like to look at these games and we've got a Couple of them coming up, weird spots, numbers in which the advantage is to the team that just got blown out and it makes you uncomfortable. And one of those games is definitely the Cincinnati Bengals plus seven and a half. They are just begging you to take that seven and a half. I'm with you. I'll be curious to see, like on Thursday we're gonna have another conversation about this. We'll know more about the quarterback. But if that seven and a half is out there, I would not be uncomfortable playing it. Like the confidence I have today. I don't know if I can go through it again.
- [39:39]
B
That was just brutal last week, guy.
- [39:42]
A
We got so many games that are gonna be brutal for us this week. Indy at Kansas City. Kansas City is a three point favorite. This one has moved from three and a half down to three. It. It looks like it could move back to three and a half. The Juice is telling us it's going to move back to three and a half. I have an opinion. I think I know where you are. That's my opinion. I just want to make this. This. I want to. I want to sort of illuminate you. Ready?
- [40:10]
B
Yeah.
- [40:11]
A
What defense gave Mahomes the most trouble in the early part of this decade? Was it the Bills?
- [40:21]
B
No. You struggle with no, no, no, no, no.
- [40:23]
A
Just say yes or no. Yes or no?
- [40:25]
B
No.
- [40:25]
A
Was it the Bills? Go with me on my gimmick here. Was it the Ravens?
- [40:30]
B
No.
- [40:31]
A
Cincinnati Bengals. Who was the team that consistently beat. Who was the team that said they owned Patrick Mahomes? Remember all the fights between the mayors of Cincinnati and Kansas City? Who was the defensive coordinator for that Bengals team? Who is now the defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts? Lou Annarumo. I looked at the stats 2021 when the Bengals went to the super bowl and beat the Chiefs in the playoffs and 2025 with the Colts. Defensively, the stats are almost exactly the same. Running, I would say 80% of the same scheme. If this Colts defense is healthy, can they get into Mahomes Lanes the way those Bengals teams that gave him the most trouble used to do?
- [41:23]
B
Yeah.
- [41:24]
A
Why are you laughing at me?
- [41:25]
B
It's just, you just. I just love how long you go with some of these things. I don't know. It felt like we were going to take. I'm going to take the Colts no matter what. I. I wanted to get back to three and a half, so I'm not going to force it into this show. But this was going to be my assignment. Says if it was three and a half. Still at Hard Rock. I. I really love the Colts. It's stupid but there's certain teams players just struggle with and Mahomes has always struggled against the Colts. Doesn't matter who the quarterback has been. I mean he literally lost in his career. He has one and two straight up and against the spread against the Colts, his two losses, one was Matt Ryan, the other one was Jacoby Brissette. So Matt Ryan in 2022. Jacoby Brissette and I don't even know 2018 or 2019. He's just struggled against him for whatever reason that is. And it's a unique spot. It's a Colts team off a bye week which you know, bad teams. I don't think bye weeks are that big of a deal. But really well coached teams. I think it is a big deal and the Colts to me are a really well coached team. Even how bad their defense is. They've been really competitive in every game they've been this year. And you know, it all go back. It goes back to this Mahomes team. It's not the same Mahomes. And we've said it this year there is something a little different and it's starting to show up. What the difference is. They're 05 and one score games.
- [42:43]
A
It's like we talked about.
- [42:45]
B
Yeah. Like at the end of the day that's the biggest thing. Right. It's just not winning close games. And this doesn't feel like a game they blow out. Right. I don't know about you. I don't think they blow up the Colts. It can happen. Right. It's Daniel Jones. We know we're Ben into. He could totally pumpkin throw three, four picks and that. That's how it goes. But just matchup wise it's. It's really a two. This number should be. Most people have this model of two one and a half. The Chiefs are getting the bump from what they've done before. And the same thing I talked about that Broncos number, I just. They weren't a 3 1/2 point better team. I didn't think they'd win outright. But you know that's. That's the year it's been for this Chiefs team. So a lot of unique stats to back here with this Colts team. It's a rare spot.
- [43:27]
A
Right.
- [43:27]
B
It's a Colts here coming off a buy facing against a Mahomes team and Chiefs team teams in this exact spot against Mahomes. They're six and three against the spread covering by five points in those matchups. So mom struggled when those teams are underdogs against Mahomes in this spot to offer bye week playing Mahomes they are 6 and 1 against the spread. The only loss 49ers in that super bowl against the Chiefs. So historically this is a good spot. Think about what needed to go right in that super bowl from homes not only to cover but win that game. I don't people remember it's like everything broke their way in that fourth quarter. So it feels like we have a lot of things working our favor here with this Colts team. It's really about the line. I'm not going to make people bat a bad line like Hard Rock. We say they're a sharp book. The pros have hit the Colts they bet this down shop around. Go find the three and a half find the hook on the Colts because we'll need it. This game easily could be the Chiefs winning by three. We know Mahomes is due to have a type of game but it's just about the number for me. I just. I think we're getting an inflated line in a Colts well rested Colts team that going to be able to move a ball against this Chiefs defense.
- [44:35]
A
Minnesota at Green Bay. Green Bay is a six and a half point favorite at home right now. Josh Jacobs is questionable. It's possible we're going to have to make a call on this game without knowing his availability. At the end of the day I'm not sure that matters because the Vikings defense continues to be suspect against the run giving up 140 yards to the Bears. What we do know is that JJ McCarthy is very good in the first 15 and very good when his team is down. And in the fourth quarter and in between he looks like a rookie who's overthinking, not thinking, inaccurate when he's not pressured. If this were seven, do we bet the number and bet the Vikings? Assuming cardiac JJ will kick open the back door at six and a half. I'm not really into this game.
- [45:37]
B
Yeah, I think we're both on the same page. I just. We don't trust either quarterback or either team right now. Green Bay or the Vikings. This feels like a Vikings number. I. I am shocked they've kept it under 7. Maybe I'm underrated all the injuries the packers have suffered but how can you trust J.J. on the road? He's just so inconsistent. He's so bad. You would think this would be such a big moment, too big of a spot for him to show up in. But my God, they're just getting pounded by packers and Money and this is touch7 a couple times and come right back down. So tell you the pros are on the Vikings, they're backing them here and yeah, it's a, it's a unique spot, right. The packers, for some reason the floor struggle against KoC, like historically they're in a weird spot too where they've lost three straight or they've lost two straight, I should say against the spread and straight up against the Vikings which hasn't happened then since 2005 for the Packers. So whatever it is these last couple years it's been I guess going towards the Vikings. But I still think some of those stats, it's like I just, I can't get over how bad JJ is. So yeah, I think we're in the same boat. I'll. I'll pass this one. I probably should be on the packers but I just, I can't trust them right now as big favorites agree.
- [46:52]
A
I don't know if we're going to agree on this next one but I asked you for support and this is going to be one of those games. Cleveland at Las Vegas. Las Vegas right now is a three point favorite. It's moving higher most books that are three and a half which makes me sort of not want to offer it. And it's almost Chad's choice. The Las Vegas Raiders -3 look last night was ugly. And when George Pickens starts looking like he's Darnell Washington, the 300 pound tight end for the Steelers and he's running over people, he's running through people, he's stiff arming people. Plus he's making guys look like they're not even trying to tackle them. That is a bad look for Raiders. For the Raiders defense it's a bad look for people betting on the Raiders. It's a bad look for people rooting for the Raiders. Geno did his part getting the team into or just outside the red zone throwing picks, taking sacks, not getting them touchdowns. However, team coming off a blowout at home against a team that just had its max effort in the prior week, a Browns team we know gives up 10 more points per game on the road than it does at home. This feels like a light em up Geno moment. Prove you're a professional. I'm on the Raiders at minus three.
- [48:22]
B
Let's have a conversation of a minus three and a half because that's where I think we're going to have to make a real decision because I agree with you and everything you've said. My biggest reason just want to take The Raiders here is just. Sanders possibly might have put up the worst quarterbacking we've ever seen, just data wise, which is shocking if you go through how horrible some quarterbacks have played. I mean, I'm blanking his name. I just had. I just lost him. I remember we had a guy who started against the Chargers. I think he threw like five or six picks in his first start.
- [48:53]
A
Oh, I know you're talking about. He played for the Bills for a while too, I think.
- [48:56]
B
And that's the fifth interception today thrown by Peterman. We've just had a run of just horrible quarterbacks and even that Sanders somehow did worse in his performance. So I'll support it. It's a unique spot too, where it's. It's a Browns quarterback making their first start, which we've joked but we've been playing it. We automatically play the other side and take the money line because it's. It's got proof to it the. They're owing 17 their last 17 quarters. For Sanders, the last time a quarterback has won making his first start for The Browns was 1995. Do you remember the name of the quarterback?
- [49:37]
A
It wasn't Tim Couch, was it?
- [49:39]
B
His first name was Eric.
- [49:41]
A
I don't. Eric Kramer. I don't know.
- [49:42]
B
His last name is spelled Z E.
- [49:44]
A
I E R. Yeah, he played quarterback for Georgia. I think his number.
- [49:49]
B
I've never heard of him, so. Yeah, so you remember him from back in the day. Okay.
- [49:52]
A
Yeah, I remember from back in the day.
- [49:54]
B
So that's the last time a Browns quarterback has started and won his first.
- [49:57]
A
Eric Zier, I think was his name.
- [49:59]
B
Yeah. 1995. Chad.
- [50:00]
A
Yeah. Yeah.
- [50:01]
B
So that's why like I want to be against you and be like this is. We're backing Geno Smith, which, you know, anyone can look up the numbers. Geno Smith, I think he's 11 and 20 against the spread as a favorite. He just. You hate him as a dog. You don't want to bet him as a favorite. He's even worse as a favorite. He's terrible as favorite but too late. Yeah, it feels like a unique spot. Are we going to take Raiders on minus three and a half? That's. That's the choice here. And once again it's. There's a bunch of spots. Numbers that are just bad against the Browns. Ivan Sanders here, the Browns since 2022 when they're playing a team with a. With percentage below 40% on the road, they are 2 and 9 straight up 1 and 11 against the spread. They've lost seven in a row in this spot. And we've talked about. They're just a different team. They're terrible in the road, this brown scene. Their defense just simply doesn't travel. So. I hate this one. I was hoping we could avoid it, not bet it. But I know there's a lot of numbers we love for the Raiders, so I'll. I'll be up front, people. I'm going to be heavy on the money line of the Raiders. I don't know how much I'm going to touch. Minus three and a half. I just. I can't get over it. Gino minus three and a half favorite, but I. I have a feeling Chad might get me there come Sunday morning.
- [51:07]
A
Well, listen, if we're not going to do Geno, then let's do something else. That's really gross. And this one is going to be Chad's choice. Presented by Hard Rock Bat. I am going with the Arizona Cardinals plus two and a half against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- [51:20]
B
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
- [51:24]
A
What choice? We can't run from who we are.
- [51:27]
B
Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?
- [51:33]
A
I know. I know. I just bet the Cardinals plus three against the Niners didn't work out for us. I know. Jacoby Brissette just sent a. Just set a record 47 completions going 47:57 in the game against the Niners. This is a team that started off playing very competitive and has been trending worse and worse and worse and worse every single week. But I don't think Trevor Lawrence is long for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let me give you some stats because the Jags just beat the Chargers 35. 6. Liam Cohn basically took the ball out of Trevor Lawrence's hands in that game. On the first TD drive of the game in the first quarter, he threw two short passes. There was a long DPI and then it was all runs. On the third drive of the game, he threw a pick. Overall, he was 14 of 22 for 153 yards. They ran it 47 times for 192 yards. My point is I got a team at home as a dog off a blowout against a team that just blew somebody out. And if you're just looking at the score, you think that it's a really powerhouse team and they're not. I'm just not going to be a buyer of the Jags. I'd much rather invest in the Cardinals. It's moving to three, so, like, I wish I could have Waited and made it Chad's choice at plus three. It just hasn't gotten there yet.
- [53:05]
B
Yeah. And to back up a little bit, you're talking about, about it being a blowout. Since 1990, we've had teams blow a 14 point lead entering the fourth quarter a couple times and they tend to bounce back right the following game. So when they do bounce back the game after that game, they are 7 and 24 straight up 9 and 20 against the spread. And even more so since 2016, teams in this exact position that this Jaguars team is in, they are 07 against the spread. It's just a bad spot. The win the game after the comeback. Like so basically I blown out or not, I shouldn't say blown out. They get a team come back by down by 14 to fourth quarter, they win the next game like they did, big, big win, they tend to lose the following game. Right. There's a let down there. And just that's what I like about these trends, historical data, because it just shows it doesn't matter if it's different teams and the people changed. It's. It's human. Like these guys have a letdown. It's just only natural. On the flip side, this has to be rock bottom. Buying the Cardinals, they did something that I've never seen. I'm not, I'm looking to it if it's real. But in my life I cannot remember again going back 25 years now following football, a team gave up 40 points to a divisional opponent and then gave up another 40 the following week to a divisional opponent. You just don't see it like they gave up 44 points in Seattle, then 41 to the 49ers. So you would think their coach, who's a defensive guy would get it right and this would be a spot they would bounce back against Trevor Lawrence and this Jags team, like, it's just, it feels like a really nice lined up spot for this Cardinals team to get a win and bounce back where they've struggled. Right. They had that huge Monday night game against Dallas and they've not handled it well. They got, like I just said, they got blown out two games in a row against divisional opponents. You expect them to bounce back. Get right here. And like Chad said, this is really about the number like this Jaguars team, this is going to be a public darling. People are hammering right now and they're undervaluing a colonel's team that yeah, they've looked bad, they've been embarrassed, but they're not three points worse than this Jaguars team and Trevor Lawrence. So I'm with you Chad. I like the Cardinals here.
- [55:14]
A
Can we not talk about Atlanta at New Orleans? New Orleans is a two point favorite at home. That's astonishing to me. Like terrible teams. Falcons went from three and two to three and sevens three and seven. Phoenix is is likely out for the year. Tyler Schock versus Kirk Cousins. I mean it's icy hot bowl two after the Flacco Rogers game between how old these guys are. So let's pass.
- [55:52]
B
We can. I mean I, I, I'm like you. I wanted to be on, I wanted to be on Atlanta. Maybe that should be a sign to me. I should be on the Saints though because like you said, you shouldn't have a real opinion on this game. I will give some stats just we all know how terrible Kirk is but I really want people to hear these numbers just about how atrocious Kirk Cousins has been. They are one in five straight up zero and six against the spread in Kirk's last six starts dating back the last season and Kirk's career which again he was pretty good. The guy made a ton of money. He is is eight games against the Saints. He's 4 and 4 straight up 3 and 5 against the spread against the Saints. Even more glaring in his last four games against the Saints he is 0 and 4 against the spread. In the Superdome he is 03 against the spread. He's just, he's gotten worse and we the numbers back up. He's consistently got worse and it's hard not to overrate him because it's like we're seeing it right now. I, I almost got sucked in. I'm getting Kirk at some books a plus two against the Saints. They almost got me, Chad. They almost got me. Even before the show I talked about it's like man, I kind of like the Falcons here but the more you look into the numbers, he's just been atrocious. It's just I can't back him here. So I really wanted to fade the Saints like again they came off a huge win, then had a bye week. You expect them to just to totally falter here in this spot. But maybe the Falcons are what they are just one of the worst teams in football. Losers of five or six straight games. Now Kirk Cousins in there who's just been deader than dead. Like I just read those stats. He's just been atrocious. So yeah, I guess people can pass on it. For my pick pools and other stuff, I'll probably end up betting the scene especially at Minus one and a half.
- [57:31]
A
Philadelphia, Dallas. Dallas is now at hard Rock, a three point underdog. When this game opened, it was Philadelphia - four and a half. So it's come down quite a bit. It's a three and a half in a lot of places, but three at Hard Rock, so a point and a half to a point. I think it's one of the hardest games on the board to handicap this week because are we buying the Cowboys improved defense? You know, with Quinn and Williams and all those guys who came back and they, they got to look good against a bad Raiders team. Like, are we worried about the Eagles offense still now with Lane Johnson being injured? Fred Johnson is playing in his place. I think that's kind of a big deal. We've seen how ineffective this offense can be without Lane Johnson, and it's more ineffective than when they're playing with Lane Johnson. So I'm having a hard time with this one.
- [58:30]
B
Well, we'll say this as an Eagles fan from the top. The Eagles are wearing their kelly greens, which they are five and oh, straight up four and one against the spread since 2023. But no, the, the professionals are showing their hands here. They just, they've taken this number down from four and a half to three. Shocking to me. Shocking to me. The Eagles are such, so, so much better than this Cowboys team in every aspect. The only, the only spot you feel confident more obviously is the Cowboys is the fact that they have a passing offense that seems like it travels and it plays pretty well. But this is going to be the hardest defense the Cowboys have faced, obviously this year. So at minus three, I'm tempted to give up the Eagles here, but I've put my money behind the Cowboys at a plus number. It's just the Eagles offense is so bad right now. It's so dysfunctional. It has to catch up to them. Like the, they can't keep getting away. Keep getting away from. They need a coming to God or coming to Jesus moment here. They just, they gotta fire the oc like it's, it's egregious at this point. And this, like I talked about coming to the season, my biggest fear was Siri won his super bowl and now they're letting him pick his OC and he picked his friend Kevin Patelo, who up to this point, it's just been egregious. The offense is just so bad. It's gotten to zero imagination and you only get defended so much. They've had such a tough schedule. It's like, well, here is an opportunity they're playing against one of the worst defenses in football, where I get. They got guys back. I still think it should not make a difference. Like, Gino was the one that blew that game. They should have had a 143 lead to start that game. He had them settling for field goals. I just. We've seen the Eagles team, if they get moving, if they get into the red zone, they tend to score unless they turn the ball over. So. Yeah, I, I cannot believe Hard Rock set this at 3. It's really tempting me to give out the Eagles here, but unfortunately I've already bet the Cowboys, so I think it comes back up and it's a Cowboys number. Three and a half, but minus three if you haven't made a bet. I think that's a good cow. I think that's a good Eagles number. It's just at this point you're betting the Cowboys to win because that's. I don't know. I, I just can't see it. I cannot see this number staying at three for this Eagles team. If it stays at three, I might need to load up on this Cowboy side because that's, that's a tell by the books. If they hold at that number because it's going to be. Eagles will be one of the more public sides of the week. If they hold it three.
- [60:59]
A
Yeah, I'm going to want to talk about this game again on, on Thursday. Even if we don't think we're going to have it in the final five. I think there's so much more to unpack with it and we need another two days to see how the numbers.
- [61:12]
B
Cowboys on a short week too. It's just, I. I can't believe the pros are loading up on the Cowboys. Really interesting here. Given a win or else situation in the closing moments, no team was ever back. You gotta love them. I mean, you gotta love the Cowboys. They're the most exciting team in the NFL. They can pull it out.
- [61:31]
A
It's astonishing to me and I just wonder, like, I feel like they're discounting the Eagles offense to too much and inflating the Cowboys defense too much. To me, this feels like a bet on the Cowboys defense and that it improved and as much as anything else, and we don't know that yet, all we know is that they did well against a Raiders team in Geno Smith, who, despite the fact we're going to back him this week against the Browns, has generally been a terrible, terrible quarterback this year. So I can't. I can't get there with the Cowboys. And I've sort of just been hoping this number keeps dropping so I can, I can play the Eagles. So let's, let's put a pin in that one. We're definitely going to talk about it.
- [62:11]
B
We're definitely playing with fire. Like, we literally. We've gone three and two two straight weeks. Both times. Eagles have been our third win, so we've been riding them here for three straight weeks. But like we keep saying, the public keeps undervaluing them. And it might be happening again. Chad, like you said, if it goes at two and a half, how could you avoid that number?
- [62:27]
A
But that's a telltale sign, right? The public loves offense.
- [62:31]
B
That's true.
- [62:32]
A
It's wise.
- [62:33]
B
And they've been on prime time just laying an egg.
- [62:34]
A
Every week they're laying an egg. And meanwhile, look what the Cowboys just did. Dak threw four touchdown passes. He's setting records on Monday Night Football. That's when you want to fade a team. This is the story of the 1. As head of maintenance at a concert hall, he knows the show must always go on. That's why he works behind the scenes, ensuring every light is working, the H Vac is humming, and his spacious facility shines with Granger's supplies and solutions for every challenge he faces. Plus 24. 7 customer support. His venue never misses a beat. Call quickgranger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [63:14]
B
It's okay not to be okay sometimes.
- [63:16]
A
And be able to build strength and love within each other. Thanksgiving isn't just about food. It's a day for us to show up for one another.
- [63:25]
B
I'm Elliot Connie, host of the podcast Family Therapy, a series where real families come together to heal and find hope. What would be a clue that would be like?
- [63:33]
A
I've gotten lots of text messages from him.
- [63:34]
B
This one's from a little bit better.
- [63:36]
A
Of a version of him because he's feeding himself well. It's always a concern, like, are you eating well? He's actually an amazing cook. There was this one time where we had neighbors and I saved their dog.
- [63:48]
B
And I ended up inviting them over for food.
- [63:50]
A
And that was like, one of my proudest moments.
- [63:52]
B
This is family Therapy. Real families, real stories on a journey to heal together.
- [63:58]
A
Listen to season two of Family Therapy every Wednesday on the Black Effect Podcast Network, iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You know the shade is always shadiest right here. Season six of the podcast, Reasonably Shady with Gisele Bryant and Robyn Dixon is here dropping every Monday as two of the founding members of the Real Housewives Potomac. We're giving you all the laughs, drama and reality news you can handle. And you know, we don't hold back, so come be reasonable or shady with us each and every Monday, I was going through a walk in my neighborhood. Out of the blue, I see this huge sign next to somebody's house. Okay. The sign says, my neighbor is a Karen. No way. I died laughing. I'm like, I have to know you are lying. Humongous, y'. All. They had some time on their hands. Listen to Reasonably Shady from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Jonathan Goldstein and on the new season of Heavyweight, I help a centenarian mend a broken heart. How can a hundred and one year old woman fall in love again? And I help a man atone for.
- [65:29]
B
An armed robbery he committed at 14 years old. And so I pointed the gun at.
- [65:35]
A
Him and said, this isn't a joke. And he got down.
- [65:38]
B
And I remember feeling kind of a.
- [65:39]
A
Surge of like, okay, this is power. Plus, my old friend Gregor and his brother try to solve my problems through hypnotism. We could give you a whole brand new thing where you're like super charming all the time, being more able to.
- [65:52]
B
Look people in the eye, not always.
- [65:53]
A
Hide behind a microphone.
- [65:56]
B
Listen to Heavyweight on the I Heart Race radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever.
- [66:01]
A
You get your podcasts.
- [66:07]
B
Jingle bells, jingle bells Jingle all the way.
- [66:11]
A
Yo, yo, can we get a Thanksgiving first? I'm hungry.
- [66:15]
B
Hey, y', all.
- [66:16]
A
It's Kadeen and Deval, the hosts of Ellis Ever after podcast. This holiday season, whether you're cooking for the family, out buying gifts for the kids, or crowded in holiday traffic, tune.
- [66:27]
B
Out the noise and tune in to Ellis Ever After.
- [66:30]
A
On Ellis Ever after, we get real with our crew about family. If you feeling like you feeling that's probably cause you a good parent.
- [66:37]
B
Friendship.
- [66:38]
A
Be careful what you put in your body. Move your body and love it the way you love them cars that house, them clothes, them shoes, them brunches. Love yourself, them brunches. Love and marriage. You know what's become attractive to me? And it's because I've self corrected and I guess I detoxified myself.
- [66:55]
B
Accountability like it has become mad attractive.
- [66:59]
A
So attractive to me and everything else in between.
- [67:02]
B
I've told my most embarrassing moment on this podcast before, which was me taking a in a ziploc bag.
- [67:07]
A
So listen to Ellis Ever after on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. Let's get to the primetime spotlight. We got a Sunday night game. We got a Monday night game. We know people like to bet these standalone games. Tampa Bay is visiting Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are six and a half point favorites. Another week where it's a relatively big number for Baker and the Bucs. News from yesterday, Bucky Irving may may play this week. Last week Todd Bowles was pretty adamant he wasn't going to play in week 11. He was limited in practice three sessions last week. Yesterday Todd Bowles was a little bit more optimistic that he could play. I tend to think a big reason why this Bucs team has been struggling. You noted Baker scrambling, which I agree. I also think there's a dynamic with Bucky Irving that we're just not seeing from this offense that changes it for them. That started to become more and more clear the last few weeks when they've been struggling. Like the problem with the Bucks this past week wasn't their offense, it was their defense and Josh Allen. So isn't this number too big for the Rams?
- [68:21]
B
Yeah, and once again it's just I think I'm too close to where like I think I should be on the Bucks like it was last week. But everything's telling me my instinct wise to be on the Rams here. And the more I dove into the numbers, the more it kind of played out that way that this is technically a Ram spot and the Rams actually to play really well here, you know, McVeigh shockingly after he plays divisional opponents, gets his guys up for the following game. He's 34 and 17 straight up 30 and 17 and four against the spread in this exact spot after he plays divisional game where Baker on the flip side, he's not great in these nighttime games which I always thought was true. And like when I look when I went back and looked at it's like, okay, how bad is Baker? Just especially I want to dive into him as a dog because that's what he is here. So as a field goal more underdog at night. Baker 18 straight up.08 since he's joined the Tampa this Bucks team him and Todd Bowles at night together they're two and eight straight up. So Bowles obviously doesn't great and that games either. Pretty shocking though that, you know, Baker's had 13 games he's played at prime time that night he's 2 and 11 straight up 49 against the spread in those games. So whatever it is, like Baker, we talk, we love him as a dog. I was like, okay, there are numbers that back up that he struggles this game because I just can't believe how big this number is. Once again, it took a miracle for that Bills team to cover that number. Like Baker put up his best fight. He put up a ton of points. Now, we both agree Rams defense is much better than the Bills defenses. Right. They have not had anywhere near as bad as injury luck.
- [69:57]
A
Yeah.
- [69:57]
B
That Bill's defense has had. So yeah, it's six and a half. I get why the pros are betting this Rams team. I get why this numbers move. So I, I'll go with the pros or I'll bet with the Rams. But I hate, I hate going against Baker, but hate it. He just seems like he struggles in the spot.
- [70:11]
A
Hate it. Here's what's interesting. Here's what's interesting. The boxer playing Sunday night across the country. They could lose to the Rams the next night across the country in Northern California, Carolina Panthers are visiting the San Francisco 49ers. They're seven point underdogs. Get ready.
- [70:36]
B
Are you ready for some football?
- [70:39]
A
A Monday night party. If the Bucs lose and the Panthers pull out another miracle, which tends to be their movie, all of a sudden the Panthers could be in first place in the NFC South. And I cannot get to the Niners -7 in this game because I think there are so many problems with their defensive backfield right now. And we're seeing it week after week after week. Brock Purdy coming back is great. That rushed offense, when Purdy is there, kittle is there. McCaffrey has more opportunities. He does call the game differently, like he sees the defense differently. He puts players different position once they go into checks and audibles and things like that. But then I'm talking about then Mac Jones. I think the real difference here is Bryce Young scrambling, stepping up in the pocket, being accurate against the depleted Niners secondary. I'm going to have to be on the Panthers at plus seven.
- [71:40]
B
I am too. I just do not get this number. It's another game I'm about to dive into more because we talked about it Sunday night. I couldn't believe it. I could not believe we were getting the Panthers plus seven. I mean, Hard Rock here has moved to the six and a half, which feels like it's the red line movement. You know, how, how do the Panthers and Bryce Young handle him throwing for 450 yards and three touchdowns a week before? Right. It's. It's Got to historically be a bad spot the following game. It's just you can't duplicate that. And it's, it's a weird spot for this team where, you know, since 2018, this Panthers team, when they're coming off a game where they scored 30 plus points, they're 5 and 16 against the spread. I mean, just a disaster. They're 2 and 13 straight up against the spread in their last 15 times in this exact spot. So we're basically betting like we did last week. We need Bryce Young to be the difference. We need him to be the superhero. Because the trends are just terrible for this Panthers team.
- [72:40]
A
They just, we always need that. Their defense is terrible. They're not going to be terrible. Christian McCaffrey could run for a thousand yards in this game.
- [72:48]
B
He could. And what I keep going back to is just fading. This 49ers team, there's tons of trends we've been going on this year about fade them after their wins and just how bad they've been at home as well like this, you know, this year we've talked about a little bit, but you can go back to 20, 23. They're 8 and 15 at home against the spread. 8 and 15. Like they've just struggled and been overvalued by the market consistently. So it's, it's a. Not much to take away from other than the fact that they keep getting overvalued. Shanahan is a six point favorite, usually wins those games. I think he's nine and four straight up in this exact spot as a big favorite. But against the spread since 20, 23, I think it's since Christmas or right before it. He's 3 and 9 against the spread, including 03 in this spot where they were coming home as a favorite after a win. So, so we keep talking about that stat since Christmas. Basically they win, they lose, they win, they lose. It's one in 15 now against the spread after a straight up win and a cover on the road. So I don't know, Chad. It feels like it's too easy. The public and the pros are with us on this one. All the money, all of it is pouring in right now at almost every book on this Panthers team. So I am happy to see the number moved. If it didn't budge, I would have told us we got to avoid it. But the fact that it's moved has given me some faith that we're on the right side. I just, I think the books aren't a value of Bryce Young and how well he's played and they keep under undervaluing him this year. So we've been on the side with Bryce Reese, laid eggs. We've been burned by him a couple times this year. But like you just said, defensively this feels like a great match for the Panthers. I don't know if they can stop the run. They sure as hell can't stop the pass. So if Bryce Young brings his A game, Chad, I think we got a really great number here with Panthers.
- [74:28]
A
I agree, I agree. It's going to be interesting. We got, I think we got about eight or nine games that we're, we're feeling pretty good about or at least like somewhat some from, from good to very, very, very good. Cincinnati, good. Seattle, very good. Detroit, very good. Pittsburgh, good. Arizona, most excellent. Las Vegas, muy muy caliente. Philadelphia, I don't know. I don't know. Rams, Carolina, good. So we got some work to do between now and Thursday to get a little more intel. We'll hear more about practices, injuries, things like that. This has been sharp or square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we we are zeroing in on plus our head to head battle. Brass balls. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video while you're watching, subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [75:47]
B
Right now it's time to take a step forward. We gotta put something together.
- [75:50]
A
Back to back. Let's go. This is an I heart podcast.