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Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast, Limu Gameo.
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Chad Millman
Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
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Chad Millman
And.
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Chad Millman
Foreign.
Simon Hunter
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined live by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Chad how we doing my brother? We're we're coming on even though there's a game that's still ending that we need, that is the Cowboys. We need the Cowboys plus three and a half against the Eagles in our final five for the day and we were getting requests from the people in the waiting room and in the chat to see how we're managing this live because this game has really been a sweat with The Cowboys down 21 nothing when we were in this game. So we are going to keep track of this as it goes into the final seconds and what looks like it's going to be Brandon Aubrey coming out to kick and a game winning field goal attempt in our final five. We had Detroit minus 10 and a half, we lost. We had Cincinnati plus eight and a half. We won. We had Indy plus three and a half. We won. We had the cards plus two and a half, we lost. So we're two and two.
Chad Millman
We had Dallas plus three and a half. We Won. I think I'm a little ahead of you.
Simon Hunter
Oh you must be. We had Dallas plus three and a half and that's what we're waiting on or it's over.
Chad Millman
It's over brother.
Simon Hunter
3 and 2 blew it on the day. The Eagles have blown it. Wow. They gave up a 21 nothing lead. We're going to get into that on this show. Let me just get out of this here today. Wow. Crazy ending to the day. Good luck for us. Our last ones out were Pittsburgh plus two and a half so we made the right call there and New Orleans minus one and a half. We made the Right. Call there. Ultimately, the last one in was the Colts and we left the Colts in because they were at three and a half. We took Pittsburgh out because they were two and a half. So good for us for going the right way and going with the hook on the Colts and going against under three with the Steelers. We will get to our early leans for Week 13. Our entire review of how we did on all of our picks, your live comments from the chat. Other than seeing us sweat the very end of the Cowboys game. Simon was pretty excited there. Kind of, it's kind of scared me for a second. To me you were so ahead of me. I'm like, I know we have the, we have the Cowboys plus three and a half. I already said that. You ready to get into this thing, brother?
Chad Millman
Let's do it.
Simon Hunter
All right, look. Detroit minus ten and a half. Wow. This Lions team was super disappointing. Tough start with Jameis getting a pass back from the receiver and then going 39 yards to Wanda Robinson to start the game. And it was kind of a show from there the rest of the game for the Lions who won it. But boy did they look bad winning that game.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it was bad bet. I, I honestly I, I can't. I'm always going to bet that spot we talked about. There's a ton of trends I love there and they've been good to us bouncing back. My, my first thought would just be, you know, bad luck in a game like that where Jamis on a third and n or third and seven throws in a completion. They get an offsides penalty. They run that trick play the next play. So again, there should have been either a field goal or a punt. It turned into a seven and you know, a couple plays later. Right. The lines just aren't playing well. No, the ball back. Jameis keeps getting picking up big third down plays and yeah, like you said, the we high, we hold them to a very high standard this Lions team. And definitely the defense did not show up today.
Simon Hunter
Right.
Chad Millman
Winston had one of his better games. There weren't a wide open guys too. It wasn't like it was tight coverage. He did play. You did have a great game. But I mean they just, it looked like they're getting out schemed defensively and this is a team that, you know, it's, it's Rob, it's like Robinson, it's, it's like a random guy beating them defensively. I think Robinson had over like 130 yards something insane. So yeah, just a bad bet. Lines. You know, it's always tough we took it at ten, ten and a half. It closes at fourteen. Fourteen and a half. So you're like, okay, at least we got a great number. Even if it's a little bit of a close game, we'll cover this number. Hopefully it was the other way. It was like, man, you're lucky if you even get covers on our teasers or our Moneyline run Robin. Right. If you're five and a half or six and a half covers here, you feel really lucky. And everything broke your way to cover that number. Like, they had to get to overtime. Like we said, they just. The Giants played better. I think they scored two touchdowns on two different trick plays. Like, that's just insane when you look on those type of things. Yeah, just a day we. We went with one big favorite in this contest, and it burned us where, you know, we know the deal if you. If you take a favor like that, you need almost a perfect game. Yeah, they had. Far from that. They had a game where everything feel like a struggle, even when you have a guy like Gibson running for 200 yards. Whatever it was, it was just a very bizarre game for this Lions team.
Simon Hunter
Wanda Robinson was open just about every play, and he was the guy who was burning the Lions in the first half. 6 for 135. Two touchdowns in the first half for wand Robinson. Can you name what college he went to?
Chad Millman
Is it Indiana?
Simon Hunter
University of Kentucky? The football powerhouse in the sec? The University of Kentucky. Nobody on the Lions could cover Wanda Robinson or stop Jameis Winston today. And. And I think there's a bigger issue which we've now seen consistently, which a couple of. With a couple of teams. I want to talk about it with the Eagles, which is. Jared Goff looks off. He's not getting protection. He's getting sacked consistently on third downs where they used to be converting these plays, it seems like their offense is basically Jameer Gibbs, maybe a little bit. Amon Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, he wasn't in the scheme with Johnny Morton as the offensive coordinator. He's barely been used and utilized by Dan Campbell. David Montgomery is barely being utilized. We know Sam Laporte is out. Maybe that's having a bigger impact. But this offensive line is not gelling. This offense is not gelling. And unless they get miracles from Jameer Gibson, they kind of can't even move the ball. Like they're. They're not moving the ball. He's just running the ball for 85 yards of play. It's weird.
Chad Millman
It is. It's just. We probably should downgrade them a little. They're not the juggernaut we make them out to be. But it's, it's also just a game where, like I said, a lot of stuff just didn't go their way. If you get. Your defense is giving up two touchdowns on two trick plays, it is, it is a bizarre, well, not your day kind of type of game. So the fact that they won this game outright is insane.
Simon Hunter
New England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati was an eight and a half point favorite. Everybody basically got it at seven and a half or seven. So do you remember what you said to me? I can't remember if you said it on air this morning. Do you remember what you said to me? Very specific. It was a very specific.
Chad Millman
It was all a blur, brother.
Simon Hunter
We're going to need Joe Flacco not to throw a pick six in this game to cover. And sure enough, midway through the second quarter, the Bengals are up 10, 7. Joe throws a pick six. That is so ugly. Flat footed, off balance, practically sidearm, directly into the chest of the Patriots defensive back who waltzes into the end zone to make it 1410. And I gotta tell you, after that, like this could get ugly. But the Cincinnati Bengals held tough. Their defense held tough. Simon. That to me was obviously the difference in the game.
Limu Emu
The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it was, it was an off day for Drake. Man, I think anyone watching that game that first half, he was, he couldn't even hit guys in the flat. They were wide open. He was overthrowing guys. His timing was just off. The defense, like you said, they did step up in certain aspects, right? They got turnovers and key stops. And that game though, man, that when he threw that pick six. I don't know about you, but like you just said, it's. It was so bad because he literally looked at the guy, pumped it, looked away and then came back to him a second or two later where it's like the defender is on top of the guy at this point, it throws it right to the defender. So I thought we were done. So especially when he got, he took a bad hit and he just looked like he was done. Flacco. And you know, I think they had like eight tries from the, the one or the two yard line. New England at one point and had to settle for a field goal. It just.
Simon Hunter
And a field goal and no points. The, the. They had two fourth and goal stands in the middle of the fourth, fourth quarter. The first one they stopped them and got called for a penalty which led to another four downs for the Pats the second one the Patriots got stuffed on the run by the Bengals. Huge plays. And then later in the quarter the, now this was in the middle of the third quarter. In the fourth quarter they had a goal line stop for the Patriots third and from the one foot line and they made him take a field goal. That's when they went up I think 26, 20 and so good for the Bengals defense which has been so maligned this season.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it was just, it was just huge, those fourth down stops and it felt like a lot of things were breaking our way and we still were not getting the COVID we needed. A miracle backdoor touchdown basically from Flacco and he delivered in a big way. So another game where Flacco struggled, you see why he's not the start already. Just swinging the ball for too long, taking bad hits, you know, 19 of 37 for 183 yards. Feels like we got a little lucky there. On the flip side, Drake may I said he struggled. He almost threw for 300 yards like he did produce in big moments where they really couldn't run the ball for some reason against Cincy's defense. Yeah, it was one of the citizens betters, better defense, defensive forms, performances of the year. And this number all week was between seven and a half, seven and six and a half. And I think at one point it touched six and five and a half just because we thought Joe Burrow was going to play. So it landed right on seven or six I should say was pretty crazy. The books are pretty spot on with this one and yeah, we just, we hated it because we knew the risk of playing Flacco and obviously that pick six took a year off my life. But it was really about trust the number. Just about how bad of a spot it was for this Patriots team. Just like it was a terrible spot for that Eagles team. It's like you win so many games in a row you're. You're eventually going to lay an egg. So that's what's been so oppressive with this Patriots team. They lay eggs, nameless B teams by double digits. It's, it's been pretty remarkable how good they are against these really bad teams.
Simon Hunter
Joe Flacco on that scoring drive when they cut it from 26 to 13 to 26, 20. He completed a pass, injured a finger. Yeah, Jake Browning came in, completed a 14 yard pass, went back out. Joe Flacco threw it to T. Higgins who got I think concussed on the play, but it was pass interference for 31 yards. And then Flacco hits Mitch Tinsley to make it 2320 with 430 left. I mean, man.
Chad Millman
Thank you.
Simon Hunter
We're going to have more about Joe Flacco later in the show because he was, he was truly heroic today. He did okay by us. He did all right by us. You know who else did okay by us? The Indianapolis Colts. Not because of the way they cratered in the fourth quarter, but because of the way they kept the game. They played so well for most of the game. Crazy game. Like the Colts picked off Mahomes inside the five yard line on their first series. They followed up with a touchdown. They got lucky with a phantom face Mac call on Juwan Taylor that took a Chiefs touchdown off the board. And like their second TG drive was just Daniel Jones, Dinkin and Duncan. Dinkin and Duncan. For a minute there, the Colts looked like a legit contender until they, until they got Mahomes.
Chad Millman
Yeah, they fell apart. That's fair. Really fun game type of game where you know, you bet this dog and you think okay, what is what type of Daniel Jones we're getting today? And he came out on fire. He literally couldn't stop missing guys. It felt like they were total in control of this game.
Simon Hunter
16 to 20 to start the game.
Chad Millman
And to me it came down to right before half, it was a third and one play call and Shane Steichen tried to run it. So there's like two minutes left in that first first half. He tries to, instead of running on third and one, he tries to pass the ball. I don't know if he's trying to pass it downfield or wherever he was, but that's where Daniel Jones went with the ball. So instead of picking up that first down or at least making the Chiefs burn another their last time out with Taylor, after the two minute warning, they passed it, stopped the clock, had to punt the ball back to Mahomes and Mahomes almost scored a touchdown. Steady. Just got a field goal like again not that big of a deal. But it was in this type of game where they lost by three. So it feels like they gave away a free three points. And end that first half where if he just goes for that first down, the third and one, they pick it up, they can eat up the rest of that two minutes. They don't need to get Mahomes back the ball. So you know, in a game with my homes and you play really tight like this, it's just little mistakes like that that they burn you because every point is so, so important in these games. So just brutal first half could have been 14, 6, right? They get their two red zone opportunities, they score them both. Where my homes is settling for field goals because of bad penalties and stuff. It, it just felt like it was breaking our way. And like I said to you, it's, it's rare where you have a dog that's a good number and they cover for every second of a game. Even that goes into overtime. They've care and it's still like we said was an absolute sweat. But you know, just playing the number and not, not saying you have a blind spot right now, Chad, but you do a little. This Chiefs team, you don't want to take them. Last week at Denver, this week you fought it a little bit with this cold steam and it's just, I keep telling you, it's. They keep being overvalued by the books in the general public here. They're just not the team they were before. So even though they're probably the better side today, especially in that second half against that Colts team, it really never felt like they're really going to cover that number. It's just. There's just something missing. Like they're just so inconsistent now, especially offensively where sometimes they make it look so easy, other times it just looks so flustered. So yeah, great cover. But I just. This Chiefs team, it's really weird right now where it's like I know we're all going to be betting them come January if they make it, but the confidence level with them, it's just something's just off a little bit today. So a huge win for them. Obviously for a lot of us where, you know, we talked about their over 5 on 1 score games, they needed this, they desperately needed this type of game.
Simon Hunter
By the way, look, it's similar as the Lions. Like there's something that's just off about how they're operating right now and it's so inconsistent and there's enough sort of magic, confidence, execution ability at the end of the game that they can put it together in the exact moment they need to put it together, but they're putting themselves in a position to have to put it together at the end of these games because they're not executing for a full 60 minutes, you know that's going to be what, what is their undoing in the plebs for both of these teams. We see it every single year, you see. And we're going to see with the Eagles too, like the teams that they're Achilles heel and they're so good they can get by week to week, but when you get into a playoff situation, that Achilles heel is something that they can't overcome. I will say this, the Chiefs were able to turn it on in the fourth quarter. At the start of the fourth quarter through overtime, the Chiefs had 290 yards of offense to 18 for the Colts. After Daniel Jones started 16 of 20, he then went 3 of 11 to end the game. So their defense started to step up and there were some things that they were doing to make the Colts uncomfortable as well.
Chad Millman
No, they gave it to him like the Lions. The Lions at least have excuses, unlike the Chiefs. And the Lions lost an offensive genius to the Bears and replaced him with a guy that neither of us consider a genius anyway in Campbell calling their plays now. So, like that's built in this Chiefs team. I don't really get it. Because you got Rice back. Worthy is no. In his second year. Like, you feel like that offense should be flying. It's just not. So it's. It's really. It's. It's really weird right now with this team. It's this Chiefs team, though. Once I say that, I'm telling you, it doesn't really. This doesn't matter to me, like what Mahomes does now. I'm sure we want to see him play better, but in January when the games are really tight, he always shows up. That's what makes him, you know, why we consider one of the best quarterbacks ever play this game. It's like I joked this number, if it's minus three and a half Chiefs at home against this Colts team in the playoffs, I will hammer that Chiefs line. But it's just different the regular season. They're just playing these close, sloppy games. I just. You saw today they. They shoot themselves in the foot how many times with dump penalties and just different play calls. It's just. It's not like it's been the past. They're just not a smooth operation. So, yeah, great. Great cover. And thank God, because if we would have gone two and three with the Saints, we'd be killing ourselves right now, so.
Simon Hunter
Or the Steelers.
Chad Millman
Yeah, but we were closer. Not on the Steelers, but on the Saints. That was our last one out.
Simon Hunter
Is that what it. It really came down. I thought it came down to the Colts and the Steelers.
Chad Millman
No, you would think that it was the Saints because you're giving a little bit of hard time about that. You made some speech about how you did something last week picking one, and you're like, okay, I'll let you do it. It's like, what are you talking about?
Simon Hunter
No, no, no. It was the Colts and the Steelers because Matt Mitchell came on after and said I can't believe you guys didn't take the col. The. The Steelers.
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think that was him just saying that. I'm saying I don't think it was between the Colts and Sears, between the Colts and Saints. I said the cold. The Saints were our fifth one out.
Simon Hunter
Anyways, it was Colton Saints. Colton Saints. Anyways, we made the right call. Jacksonville.
Chad Millman
I love all the situations in Chad said. Chad, you're the best.
Simon Hunter
Jacksonville at Arizona plus two and a half. Oh my God, this game is disgusting. Like the Cardinals dominated this game. Trevor Lawrence had a good first drive and they scored a touchdown. He had a good second to last drive and they scored a touchdown. Between that he was a hot mess. Who Liam Cohn looked like if he could have pulled him and gone with the wildcat for the rest of the game, he would have done it. He threw multiple picks, including a pick directly to a guy in. In the Cardinals end zone. And somehow the Cardinals not only don't win this game, they don't cover this game. And I'm nauseous.
Chad Millman
Yeah, tough. Tough one as well. It's. This is life. They're betting ugly dogs and it's like I want to be upset about it. You know, usually when we bet a dog and we get four turnovers, we win those bets. And that's what sucks is like you gave out two and a half. On the show we said everywhere there was threes, there was threes everywhere. But today it was only two and a half. So if you bet this, you're suffering with us, right? You, you got the two and a half and you took a bad beat. So you know, Trevor Lawrence threw three picks. Trevor Lawrence got strip sacked. Like Guy had four, four turnovers personally and he still somehow put up 27 points and won this game. So we talked. Arizona's defense is just atrocious. I mean they get all those turnovers and doesn't matter. You know, offensively they can't run the ball consistently enough that, you know Brissette, like I'm looking at right now, he had to throw it 49 times again. So like in a game like that where you get that many turnovers, like again, it's. You got to put on the coaches. You can't have 20 rushes for 55 yards in a game where you have four turnovers. You have to lean on that defense and wear them out. So you know this Cardinals team we've talked about, they're just a bad team. They're poorly coached. So I have no regrets. I would have played the same number, same side. Everything we said was true, right? Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite, he struggles. But this is just crazy with this Jaguars team. They just keep finding a way. It's like your Bears team, they just keep finding a way to win these ugly, close games. And, you know, it doesn't matter if they're playing the Chiefs or they're playing Arizona. That's going to be a close three point, ugly game that, you know, they'll somehow steal at the end there. So just a brutal loss when it felt like they're either going to kick a. Kick a field goal there and tied it in the overtime or whatever. We just have so many point points to cover this two and a half. I never got there. So it's tough when we feel like we should have been four and one. This is. This one's hurting us being three and two.
Simon Hunter
Especially because we said on Tuesday, wait for the three, wait for the three, you're going to get the three. And we got the three. Like it was just two and a half in the contest. And that's where it landed after it got to three and that's where it landed. So, so frustrating.
Chad Millman
And if you guys are going to be mad at Chad about this being Chad's choice, feel just feel a little better. This was. Chad's choice was almost Vegas. So I feel like if we're really talking about how things were, I'll take this. All right. Cardinals. At least we were in it to the end. We had a chance. It was a bad loss. But don't, don't be too hard on us. This was. I feel like the right side just got.
Simon Hunter
This was the right side. It was 100 the right side. It got to three, but it just was terrible. It was a bad beat. It was just a bad beat. You know, it happens. By the way, it could have easily been the Colts, right? Like, they could have. The. The Chiefs could have scored a touchdown to end that game and won by four. Instead, they kicked the field goal and they end up winning by three. Like we were just on the wrong side of some unlucky plays and coaching decisions that multiplied and ended up going against us. The Colts had coaching decisions that should have cost them the game in a much bigger way. It just didn't happen. That's betting. Philadelphia at Dallas. Dallas plus three and a half. Cowboys were down 21 nothing.
Chad Millman
Wow.
Simon Hunter
Cowboys had a before the second TD drive for the, for the Eagles, this is how it was going for the Cowboys. They had a roughing the punter penalty on fourth and 10. So the Eagles got a first down. They had an offsides on third down. That was an incompletion. So the. The Eagles got to score again. They couldn't get off the field. The Eagles scored a touchdown. Next drive, the Cowboys fumble. The Eagles score. Next drive, Cowboys go to the 1 inch line. FALSE start pushes them back. Dak throws a pick. Aubrey misses a 51 yard field goal. Only the second time he's missed a field goal this year. And then in the second half, the Eagles collapsed all the ways in which the Cowboys had collapsed the first half. What a crazy freaking game.
Chad Millman
Yeah, honestly I, I'm shocked we got the COVID and the win with this Cowboys team when it was 21 nothing. It was just like, my God, I am.
Simon Hunter
There was so much time.
Chad Millman
Terrible. There was, but it's just like a terrible read where everything was going wrong for the Cowboys. You know, they, that fumble was insane. Dax, red zone interception was insane. They're getting like no call penalties, getting penalties called on them when there shouldn't been a penalty called like on that roughing the kicker penalty. And you know Hertz is throwing bombs for, for seven there and I just, I was like, my God, I put way, way too much way into a Dallas team that again, I like them coming to this week. I was not going to be all in on them until I saw that I respect the group was taking such a large position. It was like, okay, these guys must know something because I, I just couldn't believe someone was putting seven figures on this Cowboys team. Like all the times to put a million dollars onto a team. I just couldn't believe someone was putting Dallas in this exact spot. So I'm gonna came off very confident. That's why it was just like, all right, I like this number. It's a good number, it's a good spot. But if these guys are doing it, like there's something that play here when it was 21 nothing. I was like, these idiots. Why did I file these guys so heavy into this game? Because it Dallas looked like the five and or four and five and one team they were at the time. Now they're five and five. But at the time I was just like, this is why this team are losers. But yeah, you said it. The Eagles, despite being up 21 nothing, made zero halftime adjustments came out very flat. And we just keep talking. There's something there's a problem with their offense right now and it doesn't seem like they can fix it where it just doesn't make sense. Like I felt like anytime AJ went to win on his one on one battles in that first half, he won and I don't think he caught another pass until midway through the fourth quarter. So it's just, it's very bizarre the way the Eagles offense is running. We kept saying they were due to get caught in one of these games and my God did they get caught here. And you know we talk all the time. I'm gonna save my my hate for CD Lamp for my shame on you a little foresight, but Pickens saved our ass as well as Dak played. Dak did play really well. Pickens had some catches and plays that are just out of this world. How talented this kid is. Nine targets, nine catches, 146 yards and a touchdown. CD Lamb 11 targets, four catches. So again, that guy tried to burn us. Pickens really saved us. And you know, every time they needed a big play, I feel like Dak just threw him those 50, 50 balls and he came down with it. So you know, huge win, huge win for this Cowboys team that you know they have a chance now again that seven seed if it's a possibility. But it's, it's crazy the fact they came back and won this game. Like you said, 24 straight points unanswered. It's pretty impressive.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, CD Lamb, even in the win is going to deserve some serious, serious shame. We're going to talk about shame on you. We're going to talk about Heroes of the Week, some other games that almost made it in that didn't make it in your comments much more. Let's go to a break from Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. There are three things to be thankful for this week. Family, food and football. And thanks to Hard Rock Bet, you can easily sneak in bets while your crazy uncle goes on his annual rant about the good old days. Sign up today and you could feast with $150 in bonus bets. Just place a $5 bet. If it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also $150 in extra bonus bets. That's an offer you can't pass up, even on a full stomach. Not sure where to place your first bet? Head over to Hard Rock BET Stats Hub and it'll help you out. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there. Here's one that stood out to me when the packers are home Favorites Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in 10 straight games. Man, we love Josh Jacobs touchdown bets plus this week on Hard Rock Bet, you get three 50% profit boost one for each Thanksgiving Day football game. Boost your same game parlay or SGP Max so your bets pay extra winnings. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833-playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
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Chad Millman
Sure thing.
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Simon Hunter
-12 and a half At Tennessee we didn't understand it. We liked Seattle. The wise guys kept coming in on Tennessee and lo and behold, Tennessee found a way to sneak in the back door. For the third week in a row, they get a garbage time touchdown. This was an excruciating watch. The Titans basically played the entire fourth quarter inside the Seahawks half of the field and one time they went forth on fourth, did not convert. The Seahawks basically just ran it three times, gave the ball back, then The Titans went on a 15 play drive that included three fourth and five plus yard conversions before they eventually scored the touchdown. The second time they got the ball, Simon. It felt like an inevitability that the Seahawks were going to give up this back door. And it was excruciating. It was truly excruciating because it was happening while the Lions kept teasing us like getting close, getting close, getting close and then giving it away.
Chad Millman
Yes. I mean there's always a team we have a problem reading. It is two years now that we are so terrible at betting and managing this Titans team. It's truly incredible. We, we've lost a ton betting on them. Luckily stayed away from them for a while instead of fading them like the schmucks we are. And now this year we bet him when they had a horrible coach and we've tried to fade them since they got rid of that horrible coach and we've just gotten burned by it. So yeah, I, we joked, I said to you this morning a really sharp respected book was down to 11 on this Titans team. And I was just like I don't get it. I like they must really love this Titans team and bet banking on this back door. And I think this yucks are up to 30 to 10 and it's like this is what this game was gonna be. There's no, there's no world where Kane Ward moves this ball against him and you know they get that fluky punt return or kickoff return and kind of flip the game like it really did where it made it a spot where all you needed now was a touchdown from Cam Ward and he did what he does. Like I have, I was in the sports with a buddy and my buddy bumps me. He's like it's crazy. Watch this testing. It's as if Cam Ward has money on his own team. The way he backdoors it, I'm like yeah, it's called an NFL contract. That's, that's the money he has on this Titans team. Buddy. It's like I think he's playing hard all the time. It's just whatever it is, the defense plays the COVID 2 Drop Back Prevention defense and he just keeps driving the field. Either gets the three or the back door touchdown. He's just killing us right now. So I don't know what we do. I'm like scared of him now. He's like the boogeyman. I just want to avoid all Tennessee games.
Simon Hunter
Jackson, Smith and Jigba in the first half had 155 yards and two touchdowns receiving. The entire Titans team had 132 yards in total offense and zero touchdowns. Like we. They. They should have won that game 45 to 3. The fact that we're talking about another loss from betting against the Titans is as excruciating to me as that Cardinals game one game. I happily avoided Pittsburgh as an underdog at Chicago. The whole thing felt bad to me. I don't trust Mason Rudolph. The Bears tried to give it away. Caleb that holding the ball in the end zone like he's playing peewee football. And there's nobody who's on the Steelers defensive line who might be considered some of the greatest pass rushers ever who are coming after him. And then fumbling. Fortunately, like he still proved he was Caleb and gave us all Chicago fans the full Caleb experience. And the Bears won it. And the Bears generally covered the line was at two and a half most of the week. Got up to three and a half before the game when it officially became Mason Rudolph. But that was kind of never in play for us.
Chad Millman
No. And again, good read by you to stay for the two and a half. I liked Pittsburgh. I thought it was a good spot for Pittsburgh and it was kind of breaking that way. Like they. They honestly were dominating this game. They're getting a lot of the turnover luck. And you know, this. This Bears team, you know, I think they outscored him by. I think they scored 10 in the third quarter. Pittsburgh, big Pittsburgh scored zero and they got that late seven. You know, they match Pittsburgh, which Pittsburgh got a late touchdown. And it just. You know when you're scoring 17 the second half, the other team scoring seven at home for this Bears team that looked so terrible in a lot of ways in that first half. It's just really impressive what this coaching staff does with Caleb Williams because once again, it wasn't Caleb Williams. Best day.
Simon Hunter
No.
Chad Millman
Missed a lot of throws, made a lot of bad decisions. But you know that DJ Moore touchdown, he. That. That scheme like he was wide open up the season for that really easy touchdown. And you know, it's just the type of game the Bears needed to win. Because the Bears have this insanely brutal schedule coming up. A lot of divisional opponents and I thought they would have a letdown game. So really impressive they'd win this one and cover this two and a half.
Simon Hunter
I was too the. I thought some of those seam throws that Caleb made, he made a few of them. Those are throws he's been missing and he still had some. Some wild lead.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it puts too much air on It.
Simon Hunter
Aaron throws in the. Yeah, exactly. Especially on some of these sideline throws. But over the middle, he was much, much better today, I think, than he's been and didn't falter, didn't get flustered after that terrible turnover. Stayed with. Was kind of a fun game for if you're a Bears fan, especially knowing they.
Chad Millman
The Bears. I told you, I'm addicted to it. It's a drug. Every game is so much fun, whether you're on the Bears or against them. It's the best.
Simon Hunter
It's total. Totally true. Totally true. Questions from a couple of YouTube watchers right now. Is it possible that when we get to the playoffs, we'll have Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, all on the road and they'll all be road favorites? Let's think about who they could be playing. They could be playing, say. Well, let's say the Chiefs are going to get. Or the, the Patriots get the buy. So they'll get the Colts, the Broncos, and who else would they get?
Chad Millman
No, it's gonna be tough that the Patriots, you know, if they're the one seed, two seeds, Denver, those two teams, their first games could either be against the Chiefs, Houston, Buffalo. Like, that's, that's gonna be really tough.
Simon Hunter
For these unpro Houston Jaguars. Like, I gotta say, if it's, let's say it's Denver, the Colts and then Houston or Jacksonville that are the other playoff team, I think all three of those might be underdogs against Buffalo, Baltimore or Kansas City.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's. Again, it's hard to say because I just don't know where the general public's minds are going to be at. Right. Depends how these teams finish up. But like, like you just said, in what world is Mahomes a bigger underdog than a point or point and a half at New England? Right. Like, I just, if anything, I could never see him being a field goal underdog or if he is, that would be an alarming sound because, you know, the public could be all over him at a field. Gold Dog. So, yeah, it's this, like, again, people have complained about the season. Like, to me, this is the best NFL season we've had in a while. Like, this is totally flipped upside down. Afc, anybody can do it. NFC is pretty much the same feeling, right? It's like, yeah, say the Eagles, the Rams are still viewed as two of the best teams. Nfc, they still have their weaknesses. You still can lie to yourself and say, well, you can beat these teams. There's our ways to beat them. So I, I am, I'm loving this, like this afc, even the Ravens, even though they've won all these games in a row, you still have questions about them and you're still not going to be comfortable betting Lamar in the playoffs. Even if it's like we see before Lamar say he is, you know, the four seed and he's hosting Josh Allen, who's the five seed at home. That's going to be crazy. If they make Josh Allen a three point dog again, we'll probably be taking Josh down that spot. So I really love all these matchups.
Simon Hunter
That was From Joe C. T.R. one wants to know if this is the week the Eagles fire Kevin Patulo, the offensive coordinator. No, they're not going to fire him. I don't think he's getting fired until the end of the year. I don't think they're making a change in the middle of the season.
Chad Millman
We'll see. I, I don't know. It's. That's what I love about my owner is he, he, he will step in if he feels like he needs to because I, I think we've talked about, I don't think how he can because this is type of deal where like I feel like he made the deal with the devil. Right? You have a coach who won a Super Bowl. He let him pick his OC for this season. So you know the head coach, his best friend is the oc. It's just who's going to be the one to step up? It has to be the owner. So I'm hoping the owner steps in even if they don't fire him just to give someone else play calling duties. Even though I don't really love Sirianna calling the plays at this point, I would rather take him over this guy. It just. You make no second half adjustments against the Cowboys and you get shut out. That's. That's embarrassing.
Simon Hunter
Someone else wants to know where we stand in our unnamed off the books contest. I hope you're able to look it up.
Chad Millman
I got it pulled up right now. So it's skewed because as people don't realize we have to take a week off and everyone's done it in this contest except us.
Simon Hunter
Oh wow.
Chad Millman
So that's as if you go five and oh. Basically like it's going to skew our numbers a little bit. So we'll catch up to people. So we were in the top 100 then we had that 104 week which really killed us. We are at 57 for the season against the spread. Unfortunately that's that Only gets us in the 300th place. So it's really including today. Yeah. Again, that's. You have to understand though, check is people already have their 50 bye week that we haven't taken yet.
Simon Hunter
I see.
Chad Millman
So, like, say we take that, we could be back in the top 100. It depends what that's going to do for us. But you know, we know the deal. We need to get above 60. So we need a 5.04in one week. And once we do that, we'll be up to 60 again, which is what we need.
Simon Hunter
All right, Simon, let's do some. Shame on you. Would you like to go first?
Chad Millman
I'll go first.
Simon Hunter
Give me your. Shame on you.
Chad Millman
Shame on you, CD Lamb. And what was going to be an easy game, an easy cover. This man tried to make it very difficult for us at every stop, Chad, and it was huge. Plays like third down plays. He's dropping it wide open just really bad. And you try not to make too big of a deal of it. But when you have the week before the fact that he was apparently out till 5 in the morning puking his brains out before their game in Vegas on Monday and then he follows up with this performance where he had 11 targets and only caught four of them, you can't say that's on deck. Where everyone else, like I said, Pickens nine for nine and a couple of those are 50, 50 balls. So I, I really was upset with CD Lamb. I thought we were going to lose this game. It was going to be because of him. It's just the Cowboys were making a lot of mistakes, shoot themselves in the floor. But CD Lamb was by far the most egregious player in this game. So a guy at his level, a top three wide receiver in this league, you just do not expect him to have multiple games like this this season. So it's, it's alarming how bad he was in this game. And he almost burned his butt. Luckily he didn't.
Simon Hunter
Including the drop in the end zone on fourth down when they could have gone up by a touchdown with just a few minutes left.
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah.
Simon Hunter
Went right through his hands. Hit him in the breadbasket for me. Shame, shame, shame. Shane Steich. Interesting that we both choose shameful performances on teams that covered for us and got us wins. You mentioned Shane Steichen's play calling earlier in the show. And when they had a third and one and could have run out the clock if they had gone for, if they had run the ball and gained the first down and instead they passed it incomplete, fourth and four with about, you know, two minutes left in the game. If they go for it from midfield there, they win the game, it's over, and Shane Steichen decides to punt the ball. All of the analytics of which everybody is following and of which Shane Steichen is a disciple say you go for it in that situation, if you go for it, ESPN gave them a 65% chance of making it. Obviously, if they go for it, the percentage of winning the game increases enormously because it's going to be very hard for the Chiefs to get the ball back. And if they do, they're getting it back in a deep, deep, deep part of their field. Much deeper than even where they started. So I don't understand the call, to be honest, unless he's just thinking the defense was totally gassed in that game. But you gave the ball back to Patrick Mahomes with a lot of time left and clearly it didn't work out because you went on to lose the game. So shame, shame, shame on Shane.
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Limu Emu and Doug Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us. Cut the camera. They see us. Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Ferry Unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates Excludes Massachusetts Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder? With a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other one for sales another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that work easier. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business whether you are just starting out or already scaling up. Plus, it's easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's o d o o.com this podcast is sponsored by PayPal. All right, let's talk holiday shopping. From now through December 8th, you can get 20% cash back when you pay in four with PayPal. No fees, no interest. This limited time offer is perfect for the Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals you've been eyeing. Save the offer in the app right now, so whether it's a must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money. This holiday. Expires December 8th. See paypal.com promoterms subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457 this.
Chad Millman
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See website for details. Simon who's your hero of the week?
Chad Millman
Even though we didn't cover I'm going to give it to Gibbs of Detroit Lions. I yeah, I just. I had an obscene amount of money on The Lions minus five and a half. And that number felt deader than dead. And because golf just was off today, he just was not having his day. But Gibbs, 15 carries, 219 yards, averaged 14.6 yards per carry for two touchdowns. It's just, it's incredible how good he is. And like we said, they have a lot of problems right now this, this team and the lines and you know, Campbell is just heavily focused on the stars right now. Right. It feels like a lot of plays are schemed up from for Aman St. Brown or Gibbs. Like, Gibbs, he had 11. He had 12 targets, 11 catches as well. Like, you know, yeah, their offense between him and I'm on St. Brown, they had 25 targets between the two of them. Like, it's just, it's very star power heavy. So for me, Gibbs, he saved me today on this, on this Tricky. Some. A lot of people are feeling the same way if they took our favorite moneyline, Ron Robbins. So I really appreciate Gibbs and you know that that bet should have been better than dead. And he, in that overtime took two carries and it took it 70 yards for that touchdown. I start the overtime. It's just incredible level he's playing at right now.
Simon Hunter
I was going to go for my Sharper Square Hero of the week with Joe Flacco, who, if you're a Bengals fan, this might be his last game of the year. He did us proud. We won two games with him against the spread. His only two wins against spread as a Bengal. But I'm actually going with Lou Annarumo from the Indianapolis Colts. You laugh, but we talked about on Tuesday that Lou Annarumo, when he was the defensive coordinator for the Bengals, was the one guy who gave Patrick Mahomes the most fits. And he was the guy who actually was able to keep Patrick Mahomes from going to the super bowl back in 2021. And that window where Joe Burrow really had the advantage and the Bengals had the advantage was also because of Luanne Romu's defense. He was showing film of those Bengals teams to the Colts all week. We talked about how he devised a scheme that usually gave Patrick Mahomes trouble. And look, he did it again today. They got gassed and they got beat, but he kept that game close enough for us to get the COVID today. And for that, Luana Rumo deserves to be Sharper Square hero of the week. Simon says was Detroit minus ten and a half. Chad's choice was Arizona plus two and a half. Brass balls was New Orleans minus one and a half. Rock and a hard place. New England plus seven and a half. Sharp versus Square. You had Dallas plus three and a half. I had the Raiders minus three and a half favorites. Parlay Rams. We'll see tonight. Ravens. We had Green Bay. We had Philadelphia. And then I think we had. Did we have Detroit -5 and a half. Is that who we had?
Chad Millman
Yeah, I. I didn't let. I let us put Philly in there. I was almost positive. I didn't let us put Philly.
Simon Hunter
I don't. I wonder if I recorded it wrong.
Chad Millman
Yeah, because I said, just stay away from Philly. Hey, folks. Yes. Famous.
Simon Hunter
Probably was.
Chad Millman
Raiders, Saints, Casey. This must be the wrong one.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it was, right? Yeah. Raiders, Saints, Casey, Seattle minus five and a half. Greenback.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's weird. I just transcribed it wrong. And then the underdog parlay. Thank you. Matt Mitchell was Cincinnati, Dallas and Arizona. Thank you, Cowboys. Listen, week 13 is Thanksgiving week, so we do not have a Thursday episode, but any early liens that we're looking at for week 13 right now. I'll be honest, I haven't given it a whole lot of looking yet.
Chad Millman
I grabbed. I did a lot of stuff, but I want to ruin it too much because we obviously are doing one big show on Tuesday. But your highlights just for Thursday, again, I. I'm a generator. I bet all this stuff early. I took the lines, they're minus three right now against Green Bay at home, threw a little on Dallas third plus three and a half against the Chiefs at home, and I threw a little on the Bengals plus eight and a half on Thursday night against the Ravens for Friday.
Simon Hunter
Tasty.
Chad Millman
The Chad and Simon Bowl. I didn't take a position yet because I want to be on the Eagles, but still it's seven, so I'm just gonna be patient and wait. But yeah, it's. If it gets seven and a half, I'd be tempted to take the Bears. But seven, I'm kind of indifferent. I want to. I want it to move off. If it's six and a half, I like the Eagles seven and a half. I probably could end up on the Bears. I. I just. Again, this is way too early, grabbing these lines, but it's just ones that jumped out to me. The. The Browns are plus six at home against the 49ers. I'm not rushing to bet it because I'm interested to see if that line does move a little bit, but anything above 6, plus 6 or above, I think it's a good number for this Browns team in this matchup and I, I can't believe it, but Colts minus three and a half at home against the Houston Texans. I know they're saying CJ's gonna be back. I just, I think the love for Houston's gonna be at its peak right now. People are just really loving this team. That's why they're kind of sucking with this hook here. So I'm gonna take the early numbers in case CJ is out again. It is Davis Mills. I know he's 30 and people are loving it, but I don't know if this is a great spot. Davis Mills on the road, indoors, in this type of crowd environment. So that was another early line I grabbed.
Simon Hunter
All right, before we do our final review and I remind everybody what we took, we can officially, officially announce that the Sharper Square NFL pick' em contest is actually officially coming back. It's a longer than we wanted it to. There's a lot of regulations you gotta jump through to do these kinds of things in the world that we live in, of official sports betting, regulated sports betting. Because there's a weird holiday schedule, we're going to kick it off for the games of week 14. Give people a minute to sign up. We're going to go through the Super Bowl. Think of this as your second chance pick' em contest. If you're way out of the picture in your pick' em contest, if you've already lost your Survivor contest, this is what you get the chance to play in. And the good news is there'll be no more stale contest lines. Standard five picks per week. A Week 14 launch means picks will be available the night of December 1st for nine contest weeks. The grand prize from Hard Rock will be a free trip for two to sunny South Florida with a two night stay at the beautiful Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, plus some NBA tickets. It'll be awesome. Thank you, thank you, thank you for your patience. Thanks for our awesome sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. We're so glad we can get this second chance pool off the ground for all of you. All right, we won with the Cowboys plus three and a half, the Bengals plus eight and a half. And I already forgot who else we won with today. Simon. We won the Colts plus three and a half. We lost with the Lions minus ten and a half and the Cardinals plus two and a half. Men. Long day. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back with our next Sherper Square on Tuesday to go over the entire NFL slate. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pod Wherever you get your Pod rate Review subscribe leave us 5 stars say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you One play at a time.
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Date: November 24, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Presented by: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
This episode of "Sharp or Square" offers a lively, real-time walkthrough of the hosts’ experiences, insights, and reactions to NFL Week 12. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down the biggest matchups, sweating out live bets and providing sharp/square perspectives on the slate. The discussion zeroes in on how wiseguys and casual bettors fared, the frustrations and joys of their contest picks, and what these results could mean for bettors heading into Week 13. The episode is marked by candid, engaging banter, in-depth analysis of bet outcomes, and big-picture takeaways on teams like the Lions, Chiefs, Eagles, and more.
On Lions’ Disarray:
“Unless they get miracles from Jameer Gibson, they kind of can’t even move the ball.” – Simon ([09:28])
On Chiefs’ Overvaluation:
“They keep being overvalued by the books … even though they’re probably the better side today ... something’s missing.” – Simon ([18:15])
On Betting Psychology:
“It’s rare where you have a dog that’s a good number, and they cover for every second of a game. Even that goes into overtime … still was an absolute sweat.” – Simon ([17:30])
On Eagles’ In-Game Adjustments:
“Eagles, despite being up 21 nothing, made zero halftime adjustments … just, it’s very bizarre.” – Simon ([28:31])
([59:29])
Week 12 Picks Record:
Wins: Cowboys +3.5, Bengals +8.5, Colts +3.5
Losses: Lions -10.5, Cardinals +2.5
Key Theme: The episode showcases the thin margins of NFL spreads—often coming down to one mistake, one trick play, or one comeback. The hosts emphasize the importance of sticking to processes, understanding that “bad beats” are part of the grind, and never getting too high or low on one outcome.
For fans seeking a candid, sharp, and entertaining sweep of the NFL betting world, this episode is a masterclass in both anguish and triumph, laced with betting wisdom and genuine fandom.
“Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you. One play at a time.” – Chad Millman ([62:09])