The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "Sharp or Square: NFL WEEK 12 REACTIONS"

Date: November 24, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Presented by: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" offers a lively, real-time walkthrough of the hosts’ experiences, insights, and reactions to NFL Week 12. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down the biggest matchups, sweating out live bets and providing sharp/square perspectives on the slate. The discussion zeroes in on how wiseguys and casual bettors fared, the frustrations and joys of their contest picks, and what these results could mean for bettors heading into Week 13. The episode is marked by candid, engaging banter, in-depth analysis of bet outcomes, and big-picture takeaways on teams like the Lions, Chiefs, Eagles, and more.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sweating Out the Picks: Contest Recap & Live Betting Drama

• [03:53] The episode kicks off mid-sweat, as the co-hosts experience the last moments of Cowboys-Eagles with real picks on the line. The high-energy, ASMR-betting moment sets the tone for an episode shaped by real-time emotion.
  • “We need the Cowboys plus three and a half against the Eagles in our final five for the day … What looks like is going to be a Brandon Aubrey coming out to kick … game-winning field goal attempt.” (Chad, [04:04])
  • Overall contest result: 3-2 on the day (wins: Dallas +3.5, Bengals +8.5, Colts +3.5; losses: Lions -10.5, Cardinals +2.5).

2. Game-by-Game Reaction

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants

• [06:34] Both hosts deconstructed the Lions’ underwhelming outing despite the win, chalking their cover loss up to defensive breakdowns and Giants trick plays.
  • “This Lions team, we hold them to a high standard … The defense did not show up today.” (Chad, [07:47])
  • “Wandale Robinson was open just about every play … 6 for 135, two touchdowns in the first half.” (Simon, [09:08])
• Notable point: The Lions’ offense is out of sync, relying too much on Jameer Gibbs and missing Sam LaPorta.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots

• [11:02] The Bengals, big favorites, survived after a shaky Joe Flacco outing. A pick-six nearly doomed their bet, but defense saved the day.
  • “We’re going to need Joe Flacco not to throw a pick six … and sure enough … Joe throws a pick six.” (Simon, [11:22])
  • “[Flacco] delivered in a big way … feels like we got a little lucky there.” (Chad, [14:02])
• Key swing: Patriots twice failed on crucial fourth-and-goal attempts in the second half.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• [16:12] This game showcased the dangers of betting against—or on—the Chiefs, who no longer look invincible. The Colts impressed early but made critical mistakes.
  • “Colts picked off Mahomes inside the five … for a minute there the Colts looked like a legit contender until they … got Mahomes.” (Chad, [16:11])
  • “This Chiefs team, ... they keep being overvalued by the books in the general public.” (Simon, [18:15])
  • Chiefs turned it on in crunch time, outgaining Indy 290-18 late, but still left doubts about their consistency.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals

• [23:14] A “disgusting” game in the hosts’ words. Jags survived four Trevor Lawrence turnovers, and the Cardinals lost despite dominating turnover margin.
  • “Usually when we bet a dog and we get four turnovers, we win those bets … still somehow [Lawrence] put up 27 points.” (Chad, [24:04])
  • Both agree: right side, wrong result—tough “bad beat”.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

• [26:38] The most dramatic bet of the day. Cowboys surged back from 21-0 down, capitalizing on an Eagles collapse to cover and win.
  • "I’m shocked we got the cover and the win ..." (Chad, [28:22])
  • “Eagles, despite being up 21 nothing, made zero halftime adjustments … just, it’s very bizarre the way the Eagles offense is running.” (Simon, [28:31])
  • Standout moment: George Pickens' performance for Dallas—a key to the comeback: “Pickens had some catches … out of this world. How talented this kid is. Nine targets, nine catches, 146 yards and a touchdown.” (Simon, [30:08])

Other Game Hits

• Seattle-Tennessee: Wiseguys and Simon both frustrated as Titans backdoored another cover with garbage time TDs. Seattle’s dominance did not translate to an easy win. “It’s as if Cam Ward has money on his own team … the defense plays the cover-2 drop back … killing us right now.” (Chad, [39:09])
• Pittsburgh-Chicago: Bears covered, but Caleb Williams had an up-and-down day. Chad praises coaching staff for managing Williams’ flaws.

3. Big Picture: NFL Parity & Playoff Betting

• The AFC is wide-open, and the hosts foresee perennial powers (Buffalo, Baltimore, KC) entering the playoffs as road favorites. “This is the best NFL season we’ve had in a while … totally flipped upside down. AFC, anybody can do it.” (Chad, [44:35])

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Lions’ Disarray:
  “Unless they get miracles from Jameer Gibson, they kind of can’t even move the ball.” – Simon ([09:28])

• On Chiefs’ Overvaluation:
  “They keep being overvalued by the books … even though they’re probably the better side today ... something’s missing.” – Simon ([18:15])

• On Betting Psychology:
  “It’s rare where you have a dog that’s a good number, and they cover for every second of a game. Even that goes into overtime … still was an absolute sweat.” – Simon ([17:30])

• On Eagles’ In-Game Adjustments:
  “Eagles, despite being up 21 nothing, made zero halftime adjustments … just, it’s very bizarre.” – Simon ([28:31])

Notable Segment Timestamps

• Contest Recap, Final Cowboys Kick: [03:53]–[05:17]
• Lions-Giants In-Depth Breakdown: [06:34]–[11:02]
• Bengals-Patriots/Flacco Drama: [11:02]–[16:12]
• Colts-Chiefs Back-and-Forth: [16:12]–[22:25]
• Eagles-Cowboys Live Betting Drama: [26:38]–[31:08]
• Seattle-Tennessee & Pittsburgh-Chicago Fast Hits: [37:12]–[43:16]
• AFC Playoff Picture Discussion: [43:16]–[46:50]

Listener Q&A Highlights

• Playoff Favorites:
  Will all AFC juggernauts (Buffalo, Baltimore, KC) be road favorites? "I think all three of those might be underdogs against Buffalo, Baltimore, or Kansas City." (Simon, [44:12])
• Eagles OC Firing?
  Not likely during the season, but fans are restless: “No, they're not going to fire him … until the end of the year.” (Simon, [46:09])

“Shame On You” & “Hero of the Week” Segments

Shame On You

• CD Lamb (Cowboys): Multiple drops, including a red zone drop, nearly cost the cover.
  • “This man tried to make it very difficult for us at every stop … top three wide receiver … you just do not expect him to have multiple games like this this season.” – Chad ([47:58])
  • “Including the drop in the end zone on fourth down …” – Simon ([49:06])
• Shane Steichen (Colts’ Head Coach): Conservative late-game decisions, especially punting on fourth and short, nearly cost Indy the game.
  • “Shame, shame, shame on Shane.” – Simon ([49:12])

Hero of the Week

• Jameer Gibbs (Lions): Despite losing the cover, he was a statistical monster and bailed out many teasers and parlays.
  • "Even though we didn’t cover, I’m going to give it to Gibbs of the Detroit Lions.” – Chad ([55:15])
• Lou Anarumo (Colts Defensive Coordinator): Drew up a Mahomes-stopping gameplan that kept the Colts in it.
  • "[He] devised a scheme that usually gave Patrick Mahomes trouble … And for that, Lou Anarumo deserves to be Sharper Square hero of the week.” – Simon ([56:32])

Early Leans for Week 13

([59:29])

• Lions -3 vs. Packers
• Cowboys +3.5 vs. Chiefs
• Bengals +8.5 vs. Ravens
• Chad & Simon Bowl (Bears-Eagles): Waiting for line movement (lean to Eagles <7, Bears >7.5)
• Browns +6 vs. 49ers
• Colts -3.5 vs. Texans (if CJ Stroud sits)

Final Review & Takeaways

Week 12 Picks Record:

• Wins: Cowboys +3.5, Bengals +8.5, Colts +3.5

• Losses: Lions -10.5, Cardinals +2.5

• Key Theme: The episode showcases the thin margins of NFL spreads—often coming down to one mistake, one trick play, or one comeback. The hosts emphasize the importance of sticking to processes, understanding that “bad beats” are part of the grind, and never getting too high or low on one outcome.

For fans seeking a candid, sharp, and entertaining sweep of the NFL betting world, this episode is a masterclass in both anguish and triumph, laced with betting wisdom and genuine fandom.

“Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you. One play at a time.” – Chad Millman ([62:09])