The Herd with Colin Cowherd (Sharp or Square)

Episode: NFL WEEK 13 Bets: Packers-Lions, Chiefs-Cowboys, Bengals-Ravens, Bears-Eagles, Bills-Steelers and more
Date: November 26, 2025
Podcast Network: The Volume & iHeartPodcasts
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Theme & Purpose

This Thanksgiving-week episode of Sharp or Square, hosted by pro bettor Simon Hunter and sports media veteran Chad Millman, dives into NFL Week 13 with betting analysis, sharp-vs-square angles, data-driven trends, and their favorite picks. The episode is intended to help casual bettors make sharper decisions and to offer entertaining strategy debates for seasoned gamblers. Special focus is given to the Thanksgiving games, and they cover each meaningful matchup for the week.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Thanksgiving Week – The Bettor’s Holiday

• Sentiment: Thanksgiving is "the football fan’s holiday"—even if the games aren’t always good, the traditions of family, food, and football are deeply valued.
• Stat of the Day: Favorites do remarkably well on Thanksgiving: 51-9 straight up and 40-20 against the spread (ATS) since 2004; double-digit favorites are a perfect 10-0 ATS.
  • Simon: “The books give us gifts – they give us these favorites and unfortunately, only double-digit favorites, which is insane, are 10-0 ATS.” (09:27)
• Millman: “We talk about this ad nauseam but I’m gonna read a lot of stats today.”

Game-By-Game Betting Breakdown

Packers at Lions (DET -2.5)

[08:28–13:48]

• Money movers: Line moved from Lions -3 to -2.5, with sharp money on the Packers.
• Hosts’ skepticism: Neither team inspires trust; both have offensive issues.
• Trends: Dan Campbell’s bounce-back stat: 19-5 ATS after consecutive non-covers. Lafleur 1-6 ATS vs. Campbell & Goff (only win this year, week 1).
• Conclusion: Mild Lions lean at -2.5, but neither host is fully confident.
  • Simon: “At three I could’ve maybe been talked into the Packers, but now at two and a half... you’re giving me Goff at home? I just can’t back the Packers again.” (12:44)

Chiefs at Cowboys (KC -3)

[15:02–18:47]

• Line movement: From -4.5 down to -3; public takes favorites on Thanksgiving but line movement suggests Chiefs “number”.
• Overtime factor: Chiefs played a brutal, exhausting overtime game; history is bad for road teams after OT (5-22 ATS).
• Stat Oddity: Cowboys have not covered on Thanksgiving the same day as Lions since 2001.
• Simon: “If this gets to 2.5, that’s a Mahomes number.”
• Consensus: No bet at the current number; wait for better value.

Bengals at Ravens (BAL -7)

[19:31–24:15]

• QB watch: Betting hinges on Joe Burrow’s return; line moved from 7.5 to 7.
• History: Joe Burrow 17-3 ATS as a dog of 3+ points; but just 1-5 ATS vs. Lamar Jackson.
• Public dog warning: 70% of bets on Bengals—a rare spot as a public dog.
  • Simon: “It’s rare you get Joe as this big of a dog, which... should be alarms to us.” (22:19)
• Conclusion: Both lean Bengals if Burrow plays—monitor news and line movement.

Bears at Eagles (PHI -6.5)

[25:08–28:45]

• Simon’s "Simon Says" pick: Eagles -6.5
• Mismatch: Eagles’ defense is the best unit; Bears haven’t faced a D-line this tough. Eagles 10-0 ATS off divisional games since last year, covering by 10 PPG.
  • Simon: “This is a great matchup for them at home against this Bears team...” (25:17)
• Chad: “I’m looking for a reason to bet against the Bears, so I’m happy to go.”

Texans at Colts (IND -4)

[29:03–31:54]

• Sharp action: Number moved up from 3.5 to 4.5; pros like the Colts, especially with Texans’ recent ATS luck and CJ Stroud’s inconsistency.
• Simon: Favors Colts at home with the running game as the decisive edge.

49ers at Browns (CLE +5.5)

[38:19–44:30]

• Chad’s "Chad’s Choice": Browns +5.5.
• Matchup: Browns’ defense formidable; 49ers’ win over Panthers largely aided by turnovers, not dominance. Sanders starting at QB for Cleveland seen as a positive.
  • Chad: “It’s not about [Cleveland’s QB]; it’s about the Browns and at home as a dog with this defense...” (39:14)
• Simon: “This game should be closer to 4, 3.5... I don’t get why people are backing the 49ers here.”

Cardinals at Buccaneers (TB -2.5)

[44:30–47:51]

• QB status: Baker Mayfield injury watch—if he plays, line could shoot up; Teddy Bridgewater (if starting) is a historical ATS machine.
• Hosts: Both like Bucs at -2.5 regardless; urge listeners to grab this number before injury news.

Saints at Dolphins (MIA -5.5)

[48:06–48:56]

• No strong opinion: Lean Dolphins, especially at home and in teasers.
• Simon: “This is the type of Tua spot you back them.”

Rams at Panthers (CAR +10)

[48:56–53:44]

• Big number alert: Panthers seen as competitive, especially with defense improving; Rams unlikely to maintain blowouts under McVay.
• Leans: Both like Panthers; Simon’s model says +7 is fair value—so 10 is a gift.
  • Simon: “This feels like a great matchup in a spot for them to bounce back.”

Falcons at Jets (NYJ +2.5)

[57:39–61:24]

• Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Both lock in the Jets as home underdogs with Tyrod Taylor.
  • Chad: “The Jets were just in a street fight with the Ravens, but if you look at that game, they did hold their own.” (58:03)
  • Simon: “This is a huge mistake to be backing this Atlanta team... I love this matchup for them.”
• Tyrod Taylor RE: Covering machine; Jets’ run game advantage noted.

Bills at Steelers (PIT +3.5)

[73:32–78:04]

• Classic spot: Steelers as home dogs of more than a field goal = mandatory bet, even with their flaws.
• Simon: “It’s not a game I’m banging the table...[but] feels like we’re just backing the number here and Tomlin.”

Giants at Patriots (NYG +7.5, Monday Night Football)

[79:24–82:38]

• Offensive line/scheme mismatch: Patriots likely to be without both left tackle and left guard; Giants’ D-line can exploit this.
• QB watch: If Jackson Dart cleared to play, number could fall further.
• QB edge for Giants: Dart’s running ability > Winston’s as a difference-maker for NY.
  • Simon: “This is a terrible match for them... two different guys on the defensive line for the Giants can use athleticism against them.” (80:33)
• Hosts: Both love Giants at anything +7 or better.

Quick Hits & Passes

• Titans at Jaguars: Pass, though both lean Titans due to Lawerence struggles. “A game Tennessee could win.”
• Vikings at Seahawks (SEA -10): Chad tries to sell Vikings, Simon cannot stomach it with a mystery QB (“deader than dead” on JJ McCarthy).
• Raiders at Chargers: Lean Raiders at 10+, but not a priority.
• Broncos at Commanders: Simon would back Washington if Jaden Daniels plays.
• Teasers: Dolphins and other favorites mentioned as teasers throughout.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Thanksgiving Football: “It’s just a very American classic thing.” (Simon, 03:59)
• On Joe Burrow as a Big Dog: “It’s rare you get Joe as this big of a dog, which... should be alarms to us.” (Simon, 22:19)
• On Betting Big Numbers: “This feels like a great matchup in a spot for them [Panthers] to bounce back... my model has it 7 so I’m getting three and a half.” (Simon, 50:04)
• On Trepidation Betting Trevor Lawrence: “I can’t get over how bad Trevor Lawrence is... he is horrible.” (Simon, 62:41)
• On Tyrod Taylor: “He’s a covering machine. You go through his data, I think he’s now covered six straight games he’s started and finished Taylor.” (Simon, 59:15)
• On Steelers/Bills: “It’s a game that we have to bet, Chad. You just said it though, you’re getting an undervalued Steelers team against a Bills team that's still to me being overvalued by the public.” (Simon, 74:14)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------|---------------------| | Episode intro/family & betting | 03:24–05:22 | | Packers at Lions | 08:28–13:48 | | Chiefs at Cowboys | 15:02–18:47 | | Bengals at Ravens | 19:31–24:15 | | Bears at Eagles (Simon Says) | 25:08–28:45 | | Texans at Colts | 29:03–31:54 | | 49ers at Browns (Chad’s Choice) | 38:19–44:30 | | Cardinals at Buccaneers | 44:30–47:51 | | Saints at Dolphins | 48:06–48:56 | | Rams at Panthers | 48:56–53:44 | | Falcons at Jets (Brass Balls) | 57:39–61:24 | | Titans at Jaguars | 62:41–65:54 | | Vikings at Seahawks | 65:54–72:03 | | Giants at Patriots (MNF) | 79:24–82:38 | | Steel City: Bills at Steelers | 73:32–78:04 |

Week’s Core Betting Leans (Sharp/Square Sides)

(Contest conversation picks, not official, watch for updates on X/Twitter)

• Eagles -6.5 (Simon Says)
• Browns +5.5 (Chad’s Choice)
• Buccaneers -2.5 (early grab, injury dependent)
• Jets +2.5 (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)
• Panthers +10 (“Inflated number”)
• Lions -2.5 (lean, wait for more info)
• Colts -4 (sharp move, pro money)
• Giants +7.5 (urgency: number dropping fast)
• Steelers +3.5 (reluctant, but value on home dog)

Summary & Tone

Colin Cowherd’s Sharp or Square—hosted this week by the witty and stats-savvy duo of Chad Millman and Simon Hunter—offers an engaging and data-loaded Thanksgiving week betting preview. The hosts balance sharp market analysis, fun traditions, and a running theme: trust the numbers and trends, but always be ready to fade the hype and beware of public underdogs, especially on Turkey Day. For listeners, this episode is rich with insights, actionable leans, memorable betting banter, and sharp warnings against chasing line movement or forcing action for action’s sake.

“I think this week, we just have to be gross. Let’s give thanks for the opportunity to bet Tyrod Taylor and Shador Sanders and Bryce Young. You’re not wrong about the [Jets].” — Chad Millman (61:24)

For additional picks or changes as injury news emerges, the hosts promise to post timely updates on social media.