← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 13 BETS: Packers-Lions, Chiefs-Cowboys, Bengals-Ravens, Bears-Eagles, Bills-Steelers and more
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Simon Hunter
This is an iheart podcast guaranteed human.
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Simon Hunter
Day family and football and the feast you don't need much to be rich.
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Chad Millman
On thanksgiving day welcome to sharper square presented by hard rock bet we are part of the volume podcast network this is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention i am chad millman i am joined as always by my bff my companion my compadre my co host professional better simon hunter hello simon chad this.
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Simon Hunter
Week is truly the football fans holiday week it feels like if you're a die hard football fan you love food this is our week thanksgiving week it's the way all know right you're just sitting around your family watching three tend to be terrible games and it's the best stuff it's just a it's it's a very american classic thing now as i get older i start to appreciate more and more of just family football.
- [04:22]
Chad Millman
On a thursday well listen you know i don't like food but i do love the football and i do love my family especially because they have left the house and are now coming back which is pure pure joy i'll also get my dad his wife my mother in law it's going to be a full house here in the millman manch i'm excited i'm also excited because we got to do a show today and just a reminder to everybody we got the tuesday show so in the tuesday show we'll have the brass balls we'll have the chad's choice we'll have the simon says we won't have a show on thursday on sunday we will do our parlay bats and rock and hard place and sharp calls and your biggest bets this is kind of like our turducken show it's the turducken of betting shows it's full of our favorite bets.
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Simon Hunter
Love it again a happy thanksgiving we got a turducken right yeah this thing.
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Paypal Advertiser
Here is a deboned duck stuffed in a deboned chicken stuffed in a deboned turkey with stuffing now you're talking do.
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Chad Millman
You want to hear my turducken story.
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Simon Hunter
God do we have time for a story today we have to go through a lot of games chad we have.
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Chad Millman
Time you always say no to my stories i'll just tell you this when i wrote the book the odds which is my bestselling book about the world of sports betting that i wrote you know twenty five years ago a guy from baton rouge louisiana a lawyer in baton rouge louisiana named nathan fisher lawrence left me a message on my answering machine this is how long ago this was a message on my answering machine telling me how much he loved the book invited me down to baton rouge i went because why not hung out with nate fisher that led to that led to me doing a story about big baby glenn davis i remained friends with nathan fisher and every year nathan fisher for the holidays would send me a turducken there you go this one's for nathan fisher and the turducken we went three two last week in our five favorite picks from our sunday morning show we won with the bengals we won with the colts we won with the cowboys we lost with the cardinals and the lions for the year we are thirty four and twenty six through eleven weeks listen before we talk the thanksgiving games in case you missed it our free pick em contest officially returns next week what does that mean that means that we are all going to be picking games from the same exact lines in the same exact contest number one that is the thrill we again apologize if you did not hear we are super excited and it took a little while because we're in the betting space and there's a lot of regulations when you're going to do a contest and it just takes a long time to get things done we are super excited that it's coming back pick start week fourteen if you're worried you'll somehow forget and you want to pre register just visit sharp or square dot the volume dot com that sharper square dot thevolume dot com sign up for free we're all going to play from the same lines against each other we're going to play through the end of the playoffs we're going to have a full nine weeks to play a contest against each other producer matt mitchell is going to cover all the details in upcoming episodes for now just go to sharp or square dot thevolume dot com to sign up it's going to be a.
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Simon Hunter
Blast and the more of you that do sign up and you know help us out next year we get a better contest better prizes so even if you're just yeah it's so late in the season i don't want to do it dude free show please people join up this is this something that's really exciting we worked really hard behind the scenes matt mitchell tons of credit to.
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Chad Millman
Him all credit to matt mitchell play play along it's a free contest and the winner gets a trip to florida and goes to games and gets to stay in a casino and look up.
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Simon Hunter
The hotel it is sick i've been there before this is not i went non sponsored i went down there for some business and it's it's legit a really awesome spot down there hard rock.
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Chad Millman
They do it right yeah let's do some thanksgiving football because that's what we love green bay at detroit detroit minus two and a half look early money pulled this from three to two and a half money coming in on the packers they were the more dominant team on sunday if you look at it in their matchup with minnesota but that's not saying much considering jj mccarthy who we're going to dig into a little bit later the lions got beat up and down the field by the giants and needed a miracle from jamar from jameer gibbs at the end of the game to win it's a weird game for me i feel like i want to take the two and a half and then i feel like that's a little bit of a sucker bet because it's already moved against me and i'm taking a bite that i shouldn't take haven't played this one yet yeah it's.
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Simon Hunter
It'S unique we're just i think we're both in the same boat we've got burned by this lions team we don't really trust them right now but like i talked about last week that felt very flukey with that giants game like i said you just two trick play touchdowns that just doesn't happen one trick play in the game touchdown is is very rare i don't even think any other game had a play touch they had two against them this lions team so you know as much as i want to be up their defense they did have guys streaking wide open and james took advantage of it this packers team even watching that game against the vikings it felt like it was exactly what you said it felt like jj lost that game and gifted it to the packers yeah packers really beat them and played that great i mean respect the wilson the kid that came in to run the ball he played really well i still think there's something a little off with jordan love and there's just something i don't like and trust about him right now so i joke that thanksgiving it's a day of good food and a lot of crappy football and it's just because it is a chalk heavy day we've talked about this ad nauseam but i'm going to read a lot of stats today just to bring up about how unique thanksgiving is and just about what tends to happen on this exact day so we know the deal favorites on thanksgiving since two thousand four fifty one nine straight up chad okay that's pretty shocking the more shocking part is against the spread they're forty and twenty that's wild favorites going forty and twenty since two thousand four on thanksgiving so we joke all the time it's like the books give us gifts they give us these favorites and unfortunately only double digit favorites which is insane they're ten zero against the spread yeah thanksgiving but you know this is a unique spot and from the pros i've talked to that back this backwards like you just said the the three was available and it disappeared it's just about the overtime and all the stats that go against the lions because they played an overtime game but my pushback against that was their offense at two snaps in overtime like gibbs took that for a long touchdown the second carry i believe for a touchdown yeah i mean maybe you could say well their defense is on the field a ton and that is fair you know we talked earlier in the year it's it's a bad spot to be in overtime than playing a short week and it only happened once this year it was the raiders team we got burned by it they played the broncos if you think back to that game did the raiders really keep that came closer is that just bone knicks just terrible terrible game they barely won ten to seven like it was just very fluky to me where the raiders scored seven points they had two turnovers and they the denver couldn't really take advantage of it so you know looking at the stats chad it's not ideal when when teams are on you know short rest like this they're twenty four forty seven against the spread in this exact spot this lions team is in now i push back against it that we talk about campbell in his coaching career again it's been tough because this is all this is stats with ben johnson he's done really well in games where he loses or doesn't cover consistently so this exact spot so he's failed to cover in two straight games now he's nineteen and five against the spread in the spot so it's tough where it's like usually the lions and campbell bounce back here and they cover in these exact games and i've seen a tough little floor stats too about him being a dog before i believe he's eighteen and six against the spread as an underdog so i i get why there is so much packers love here i just i gotta trust this lions team the numbers move too much i just think they're the better team honestly than this packers team and i think this is a good matchup for them where i feel like campbell's going to treat that game as a loss that game against the giants because they were so embarrassed defensively with the packers they dominate i feel like they're feeling good coming to this game and the public is backing up that sentiment like like you said they're they're taking a ton of money right now and this numbers move so again i don't know if it's one of our contest picks like you said you're not too confident in it but i do really like it now that it's down to two and a half i i think that's that's a lions number at this point at three i could have maybe been talked into the packers but now that's two and a half i i just you're giving me golf at home where people are counting them out indoors i just i just can't back the packers again packers la flor one and six against campbell and golf in his career against the spread there just their only win and cover came this year in week one so i like this match with this lions team.
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Chad Millman
This lions team and the packers neither of them look right with offenses that are supposed to be amazing goff is thrown for a thousand fewer yards than he did at this time last year he's getting sacked more frequently the offensive line is not as good and it's injured jameer gibbs is kind of their dominant offensive weapon they're really a two dimensional team if you want to bring in a monroe st brown who's got seventy five catches jameson williams only has thirty catches this year sam laport is not on the field so we're betting a lions team i think based on past history and offensive performance i'm with you if i'm betting this game i'm betting the lions i haven't gotten there yet because i think there's other games i might want to just invest more in some other games than i want to bet into this lions game we're on the bus getting ready to broadcast.
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Simon Hunter
The traditional thanksgiving day game and john as you think about all the people around the country sitting down to enjoy thanksgiving with their friends and their families we indeed have a lot to be.
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Paypal Advertiser
Thankful for to me there's nothing better there's just certain things that go together you know the turkey the family the tradition football and we have it all.
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Chad Millman
Today one of those games that's getting really really interesting is kansas city is now a three point favorite at the cowboys but this line was four and a half and it's very similar to what we saw last week with the cowboys opening his four and a half point home underdogs against a perennial super bowl contender and now the line has been bet down to four to three and a half to three and like all of a sudden it's turning into a kansas city chiefs number yeah and.
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Simon Hunter
This was a game talked a little bit about it sunday night i just immediately grabbed the cowboys just because of that chiefs colts game that to me was the most physical game of the week you know as bad as you want to say the colts defense is they play really hard and you know they they were really physically offensively against that chief's defense and i just talked about it it's a unique spot the chiefs played an overtime game that wasn't like the lions game was not just two plays and a touchdown right they had to drive the field really grueling and it's a unique spot now the chiefs are on the road on a short week after playing an overtime game which once again the exact same spot that raiders team in and just like the raiders this is a bad spot when you look at all the data right and historically teams in this exact spot the chiefs on the road after playing an overtime game six and six and twenty one straight up five and twenty two against the spread and you know we we are always looking for advantages here i am shocked this number is moved because i just told you people like the favorites the public usually lines up and bets them pretty heavily and you know like we're talking about right now we know we're early in the week here but just seeing what you know the public wants to do with this one i am shocked i'm shocked the cowboys again it was an incredible win that comeback win but i thought the chiefs win was better like that they they they felt like they dominated that into the game and came back where the cowboys as good as they were they made the plays it felt like it was the eagles that just totally fumbled that game let them back in like just everything went wrong so really unique spot the fact that this number has been moved it's going to make it they're trying to make me take the the chiefs here chad because i'm on the cowboys they talk about i there's still three and a half out there at a very public book that you can get but it's a unique spot in the sense that we tend to fade the cowboys on thanksgiving because they get so much public love and usually it's not that great of a number like that's the honest truth about it i think dak in his career is two and five against the spread on thanksgiving so even in his career he usually gets too much love from the public and the number doesn't make sense so that's what i'm worried about here if this gets a two and a half that's we talk all the time that becomes a mahomes number it's yes three and above you want to fade my homes and it's a stupid stat but i do love this stat the lions and the cowboys haven't covered on the same day since two thousand one two thousand one these two teams have played every thanksgiving together so i'm not gonna lie if the the lions covered that early game i'm not going to be putting more money this cowboys team it sounds stupid and random but i always love those stats because it is bizarre and they both have not gone two zero straight up and against the spread on thanksgiving since nineteen ninety four so thirty years over thirty years these two teams we play every thanksgiving and again that that just says how bad the lines have been in our lifetime yeah it also just says since ninety four we've talked about this cowboys team how they've had a lull very bizarre their thinks thank you instead so i do love the cowboys but i was hoping it's gonna be three and a half unfortunately at hard.
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Chad Millman
Rock here it's three yeah it's the line has moved i think too much to really invest in the cowboys and because it's at three it's right in the line of where you want to invest in the chiefs at this number i don't think anyone should be betting it i think you got to wait until you get to one side or the other on this there's just no edge you know we're trying to find edge we're not just saying you got to bet every game that's not the point and we're not betting games because of random thirty year old stats when the lions have been a shitty team for twenty five of those years i'll.
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Paypal Advertiser
Tell you pat this stuff is looking good and smelling good and tasting good.
- [19:23]
Simon Hunter
We gotta dig in and start eating now it is good but you gotta.
- [19:26]
Paypal Advertiser
Hurry because it's getting close to game time and we just like to say.
- [19:30]
Simon Hunter
Happy thanksgiving to you guys back in.
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Chad Millman
The studio you know what isn't insane betting the cincinnati bengals as seven point underdogs against the baltimore ravens on thanksgiving day when joe burrow is coming back to play so let's do it we haven't gotten official word that joe burrow was bat but all indications are that joe burrow is is coming back and this line has moved from seven and a half down to seven plus jamar chase will be back plus chase brown who simon kudos to you all flowers early in the year you talked about how chase brown was a guy that you thought had a chance to really have an impact and potentially be a huge rushing number guy this year in the last five games he's proving it like the only time he's gone fewer than seventy yards in the past five games was it in that in that shootout with the bears that the bengals lost you know forty seven forty two to me seven is the number you give this game when the mar is at full strength and this ravens defense is at peak performance but if you even look at the game last week against the jets they won twenty three ten they covered some of the numbers but that was not a dominant performance they still look like they are struggling week after week after week give me the bengals plus seven yeah i love.
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Simon Hunter
The bengals but it's it's a bizarre number it's a game that i have major pause on because i just i don't get why they're still giving us the plus seven we know it's probably going to be joe burrow it's most likely going to be him and it.
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Chad Millman
Did come down it came down from seven and a half yeah but that's.
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Simon Hunter
That came out after it came out that you know lamar wasn't practicing he had a semi you know what was a toe injury or something like that or i'm not sure he had some type of injury in that that coach said it's not a big deal but like we've talked about none of us trust him right now we think lamar's looked off all season yeah playing through injuries all season so technically like i've talked about on thanksgiving this is a spot to back the ravens because it's you want to back the favorites like i'm not trying to throw chad on the bus here but chad likes the three dogs this week on thanksgiving that's a killer you don't want to be on green by the way i didn't.
- [21:44]
Chad Millman
When did hold on i have not once said i like the packers i have said the three i said they were bet at three i didn't say i liked them at three i said they moved okay i i said the whole time i said i like the lions at two and a half i just haven't bet it yet kansas city i like the kansas city chiefs at minus three i'm hoping it'll get to two and a half i have not bet that game yet i've bet one game on thanksgiving so far cincinnati plus seven at baltimore that's all i bet.
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Simon Hunter
Dogs on thanksgiving people you've already hear first he is on all the favorites.
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Chad Millman
Oh my god that's my whole point.
- [22:20]
Simon Hunter
Though you just don't want to i liked all the dogs coming in this you don't want to take all the dogs it's just historically a bad day to be backing dogs and that's why i got to be careful here about this number and the seven because then we both agree it feels like it's way too high and egregious and historically it's not a good spot to be fading lamar if it's basically this late in the season it's this cold out lamar dominates these games at home especially his big favorites he dominates the bengals in his career i mean let's go back the last six times they played joe burrow is one and five against the spread against lamar he's just struggled against him so to me what i'm really banking on here is that lamar is banged up he's not as good as perceives and you know as bad as this bengals defense is we talked about they showed us a little bit of something last week they had a bunch of big stops now yeah we're not banking on to happen two weeks in a row but we are banking on joe burrow as a big dog and you know it's it's rare you get joe as this big of a dog which again should be alarms to us that is this big of a number but as three points or more joe burrow seventeen three against the spread covering by almost five points per game in those matchups so it's it's a nice spot nice match for joe historically but i just have some pause here because it's it's a big dog on thanksgiving and historically those just do not cover so i i really before i put any more money into i need to know it's joe burrow honestly i haven't bet the seven we talked about it was seven and a half eight and a lot of books were opened i took that if it keeps going down that would make me feel a lot better because we talked about you want to be on the public side the more money your side's on like right now the cowboys are the public side normally i back off of that but because it's thanksgiving that's a good thing you want to be on the public side on thanksgiving so i i like this number right now it's every book you look at right now it's seventy of the bets and the money right now are on this bengals team so it's it's it's it's the public dog right it's it's a nice spot for the spangles team i think everyone just does not trust this ravens team.
- [24:15]
Chad Millman
Right now nothing to trust they just haven't dominated even that game when when lamar came back against the dolphins in that first game they won twenty six it wasn't a dominant lamar performance he just hasn't gone full speed full rpm because of the variety of injuries between the hamstring the knee the toe he hasn't been practicing you're getting joe burrow back it's just a big number it's a big number chicago at philadelphia when black friday comes the eagles are challenged on offense they've got injuries on the offensive line they've got issues in the secondary this line is so high it makes me feel like somebody knows something and is making me nervous to bet the bears especially the fact that it moved from seven to six and a half there's just something off about this.
- [25:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah this is my simon says but give me give me the eagles minus six and a half at hard rock.
- [25:13]
Chad Millman
Simon says presented by hard rock that.
- [25:17]
Simon Hunter
I want to play a game simon says and shockingly i i'm going against my model my model has this game of five so it's it still thinks the bears are the right side i just i told you i i just think this bears team is bad and they've been playing against bad competition and winning games but the eagles might be bad as well i think they're twenty fifth now in offensive success rate like they're not that good of a team either i just think that but best unit by far on this field is going to be that eagles defense and this is a great matchup for them at home against this bears team that you know if you can't get the run game going you're putting on caleb williams that's that's disaster you do not want to be in that spot i think that's what the eagles are going to put him in here and you know it's a unique spot this bears team you look at the record like you just said you would never expect them to be a seven point dog when you know you could argue they're just as good as eagles team especially when you look how the season's played out but it's it's honestly a great spot for this eagles team that you know most teams play divisional games and that's really physical and they struggle the following game so you know since last year teams coming off a divisional game one hundred and thirty five one hundred and thirty against the spread so five game difference that's nothing right no the eagles they're ten zero against the spread in the spot covering by ten points per game how many years one two years is that is that too far back for you chad no that's perfect.
- [26:46]
Chad Millman
Okay yeah if it was like ten years going back to the nineteen fifties i'd be like i kind of don't buy it but two years is plenty.
- [26:53]
Simon Hunter
I know you hate history you would invade russia we know you lose the war in the winter we know we've gone over this but to me i just i i'm trying to take my phantom out of it how bad this eagles team looked and just look at straight numbers it's like okay matchup wise this is a great matchup with this eagles team against a defense chad knows you guys had no linebackers you have no your secondary is totally banged up they've lived off the turnovers that's been the saving grace of the spares team anytime they need a short field turnover the seagulls team that was the fluke of the fluke last week right they had these stupid fumbles these stupid turnovers that they usually don't make they're just a team that has not turned the ball over so you would expect to be a get right spot for this eagles team and it's really about how numbers move like i talked about if it was still seven seven and a half i probably would avoid it but now that it's coming it's down to six and a half here it could keep moving i'm not gonna lie people you don't have to rush to bet this one i'm just gonna grab it now in case professionals do come on the eagle side because i i love this spot and it's not shocking to see that you know this is the week everyone's just bearing the eagles i joked with you i couldn't wait to listen to wip on sunday night because i just knew all these eagles fans are gonna be losing their minds it's you know one of the worst losses they've ever suffered and you know i think it's the first time since the nineties the eagles have blown a twenty point lead in a game like that so it couldn't be a lower spot it feels like for this eagles team that i think the market's overreacting we've again we faded them last week the two weeks before that we were riding the eagles team because the market overreacting to this eagles team so it's it's kind of a fun seesaw spot and we talk a lot of time eagles are just a different team at home jalen hurts less thirty four games thirty thirty and four straight up at home you know this is going to be one of the more teased games this week so i i won't be shocked to see professionals coming in on this bear side but i i do love it now that it's at six and a half for the seagulls team listen.
- [28:46]
Chad Millman
I i'm looking for a reason to bet against the bears so i'm happy.
- [28:51]
Simon Hunter
To go i want to be on the bears we talked about they're just more fun to bet on but i just it feels like this numbers move too much like this probably should be seven and a half eight and now you're getting a six and a half i just can't believe it's moved this.
- [29:04]
Chad Millman
Much houston at indy indy is a four point favorite you tagged this one on sunday night as a game you were betting the colts immediately it was at three and a half and you expected a lot of fandom to come in on the texans because what they've done against the bills and that it would move because the pros would like the colts and that's kind of what happened we're seeing four there's also four and a halfs cj stroud is expected to play this weekend from your point of view this has to be a bet against cj stroud because daniel jones has definitely come back down to earth the past say three to four weeks and especially last week in that second half against the chiefs so the number that we're looking at at four where do we stand right now yeah i'm.
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Simon Hunter
Not going to be the one defending daniel jones too much because like you said it's we knew he's going to be inconsistent it is daniel jones in the day but he did you know these last three weeks were tough spots right he was at pittsburgh total meltdown game by him then went across the across the pond to go play atlanta came back to face the chiefs like it has not been the easiest road for him right after that bye week so you expect this to be the exact spot he gets right against a houston team that what have they won five straight it feels like six straight i mean they won three straight with davis mills came in it's it's been very bizarre how they turned it around and no they did lose a denver that's right because we were on that game i remember now where we should have won that game a thousand ways but cj got hurt and houston lost that game that's right but you know if if you're telling me who has the best unit we both agree it's the texans we know the deal texas defense they're the best but i just love this matchup for the colts team inside with you know a running attack that can just change the game so many different ways we've seen jonathan taylor indoors he's a different beast you get him on that turf that speed it's been crazy this season so yeah the number is shocking i honestly when i gave it out i was like okay the pros will come in on it i did not see him moving a point because like you said i mean hard rock's at four but it's four and a half a lot of books.
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Chad Millman
Yeah that was shocking to me yeah.
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Simon Hunter
It'S it's tempting they're begging us now to come on the texans but yeah i'm going to hold firm like this match for this colts team offensively and we saw a little bit last week i i talked about it i think the fact they got ward back defensively him and sauce now is their one or two corners that to me was a big deal like they did shut down that passing game for a long time in that chiefs game eventually mahomes he did the mahomes thing where he scrambles around in circles and eventually guys get open is cj going to be doing that his first game back after a concussion i don't know i see him playing a little timid here so i definitely like this number on this.
- [31:55]
Chad Millman
Colts team let's take a quick quick break from our friends at hard rock bet today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor hard rock bet there are three things to be thankful for this week family food and football and thanks to hard rock bet you can easily sneak in bets while your crazy uncle goes on his annual rant about the good old days sign up today and you could feast with dollar one hundred fifty in bonus bets just place a few five dollars bet if it hits you get not only your winnings but also one hundred and fifty dollars in extra bonus bets that's an offer you can't pass up even on a full stomach not sure where to place your first bet head over to hard rockbet stats hub and it'll help you out it's loaded with trends streaks and stats to help guide your picks numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there here's one that stood out to me when the packers are home favorites josh jacobs has scored a touchdown in ten straight games man we love josh jacobs touchdown bets plus this week on hard rock bet you get three fifty percent profit boost one for each thanksgiving day football game boost your same game parlier sgp max so your bets pay extra winnings there's new promos every day so if you're listening to this later just open the app and check out what you've got any day of the week download the hard rock bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets not a cash offer offered by the seminole tribe of florida in florida offered by seminole hard rock digital llc and all other states must be twenty one or over and physically present in arizona colorado florida illinois indiana new jersey ohio tennessee or virginia to play terms and conditions apply concerned about gambling in florida call one eight three three playwise in indiana if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help call one eight hundred nine with it gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler in arizona colorado illinois new jersey ohio tennessee and virginia.
- [33:58]
Lenovo Advertiser
If a lenovo computer for your business is on your holiday list don't shop around just go directly to the source lenovo dot com youm'll find exclusive deals on the pcs you want for your business like the thinkpad x nine hundred fourteen aura edition and yoga seven i two in one so avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source lenovo dot com where pcs are up to fifty percent off that's lenovo dot com lenovo.
- [34:25]
Simon Hunter
Lenovo.
- [34:28]
Annabe Sofas Advertiser
Time for a sofa upgrade introducing anabe sofas where designer style meets budget friendly prices every anibe sofa is mostly modular allowing you to rearrange your space effortlessly perfect for both small and large spaces annabe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy liquids simply slide right off designed for custom comfort our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink in feel or a supportive memory foam blend plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years don't compromise quality for price visit washablesofas dot com to upgrade your living space today sofas start at just six hundred ninety nine dollars with no risk returns and a thirty day money back guarantee get early access to black friday now the biggest sale of the year can save you up to sixty percent off plus free shipping and free returns shop now at washablesofas dot com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply this.
- [35:29]
Paypal Advertiser
Podcast is sponsored by paypal all right let's talk holiday shopping from now through december eighth you can get twenty percent cash back when you pay in four with paypal no fees no interest this limited time offer is perfect for the black friday and cyber monday deals you've been eyeing save the offer in the app right now so whether it's a must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing paypal helps you make the most of your money this holiday expires december eighth see paypal dot com promoterms subject to approval learn more.
- [36:07]
Odoo Advertiser
At paypal dot com payin four paypal.
- [36:10]
Simon Hunter
Inc nmls nine one zero four five.
- [36:12]
Degree Cool Rush Advertiser
Seven today's episode is brought to you by a scent that's made a legendary comeback degree original cool rush the og is back and better than never cool rush isn't just a scent it's a movement fan favorite it's the kind of fragrance that guys remember ask for by name and rave about online it's bold fresh and delivers all day sweat protection with that cool crisp vibe that made it a legend whether you're heading to the gym the office or just trying to stay fresh on a long day cool rush has your back it's the go to for millions and for good reason so if you haven't tried it yet or if you've been waiting for a sign this is it head to your local walmart or target and grab degree cool rush the fan favorite scent from the world's number one antiperspirant brand.
- [36:54]
Odoo Advertiser
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- [37:54]
Chad Millman
Dot com guess what simon it is time for chad's choice presented by hard rock bet are you sure you want to do this are you willing to make a choice my choice we can't run from who we are sharp dudes.
- [38:15]
Simon Hunter
Can just see it you know what i mean.
- [38:20]
Chad Millman
I'M going with the cleveland browns plus five and a half at home against the san francisco forty nine ers i feel like i dodged a bullet last night i nearly pulled the trigger on the panthers at plus seven and a half like you and i we discussed it all week and like there was something we just couldn't quite get there on the panthers at least for purposes of the show and i was so tempted it was like i was still debating it up until about six thirty and then i spoke to a buddy of mine mike kearns actually who you know was at the chernin group recruited me to help help them all launch action and massive niners fan and he walked me back on the panthers didn't go exactly as sort of the blowout that i think we had convinced ourselves it would be san francisco played fine brock purdy know three picks the panthers are really the reason why they didn't cover that game the miss field goals the picks from bri bryce young but we now got the san francisco forty nine ers on the road this number has moved from six and a half so i'm i'm betting into a number that's moved but at the end of the day it's not about dylan gabriel being quarterback it's not about shador sanders being quarterback it's about the browns and at home as a dog with this defense that is going to be much more effective than anything they saw against the panthers we both like this on sunday night when the browns were six and a half that's when i bet it but i'm still betting into it at five and a half.
- [40:03]
Simon Hunter
Yeah unfortunately i did i did take the panthers last i knew i was going to but it was just as soon as i won that rams game and had all that money i was like well i can't just take this home with me i got to put some of this on the page panthers and like you said those picks by purdy felt pretty good but he did exactly what we worried about right it was the game after his historical best game of his career he just totally melt down and played terrible for this game i mean i can't believe people are back in the forty nine ers here i'm so happy to see this numbers come down chad because yes it had gone up to six and a half which i said it might we talked a little bit sunday night but i was like what pros are hammering this forty nine ers team on the road here like this is i don't feel like this is the right spot to be back in purdy in this game and you know as much as we want to fade sanders after his big win and my god like him him talking in front of a mic i get why this coach won't say his name in press conferences he must just hate how cocky and arrogant this kid is for you know doing the bare minimum in this yeah what do you have eleven eleven passes or eleven competitions in that game so you know i i love sanders i feel like the locker room loves them the fan base seems to love him so as much as negativity this coach has brought around it it feels like everything i've read the reports and seen stuff with the cleveland team they've really rallied around this kid and i believe they named the starter already for this game yeah they have they did so that that part should be part why then i'm removed as well just because maybe most people have them graded now higher than dylan gabriel because at least he does do one thing very well which you can't say for gabriel which is pushing the ball downfield he does have a pretty good arm so yeah this matchup we've talked about it we just don't we don't trust this forty nine ers defense we think they're suspect even against carolina carolina felt like they were moving the ball pretty well it was just the bryce young turnovers that kept killing them and you know canales all of a sudden the most aggressive coach in the world is now playing cautious what the i mean seriously like it just there's no rhyme or reason i've complained about this with a lot of these coaches this year it's like that one day they'll do one thing the next day they feel a different way it's like it doesn't feel like they're listening to any type of math or just going strictly off gut which is not the right way to be but yeah for this game chad nailed it like i i love this brown's team it's it's unfortunate still not six we talk all the time it's such a key number but you know this game should be closer to four three and a half free points here on a forty nine ers team that you know they finally did it they covered a game after they had won a game so now they're two and fifteen after it went against the spread i'm gonna keep going after that trend and i feels like another good spot where we've talked we thought the number would catch up to this browns team at home feels like the books still haven't caught up to it feels like we're still getting away with one here on this brown team at home just how different they do play and really diving into it the way this matchup is going to play out you know ken purdy beat us sure we know that that's going to work out but you already know they're going to scheme up to take away christian mccaffrey i'm excited to see what this offense can do without him because even that carolina game i feel like every time they needed a big play once again was mccaffrey getting that third down pickup once you put it on purdy i feel like he's going to struggle so i love this matchup with you as well in this browns team and yeah it's gonna be interesting what this number does morning will it will it keep dropping or will we get a pop back to six so people if you want to rush and take it now just to be safe you can i think there is a world we get some professional money on the forty nine ers we do maybe get back to the six here so you can be a little patient with your money it is tuesday i do think we get back to six but i would not be shocked if a ton of professional money came in and got this one down we just like we talked about we just love this match in this browns team and you know as much as you want to say they're not playing for anything that miles garrett going for that sack record that's something that can motivate this team i think carry them throughout this cold dark days of november december here so i think this is gonna be a highly motivated browns team unlike steve also.
- [43:59]
Chad Millman
You think shador sanders is in plan to keep them from drafting fernando mendoza or dante moore or anybody else who is streaming up the draft charts right now of course he is no even.
- [44:11]
Simon Hunter
Worse have you seen the whole thing about how the rams traded atlantis pick so the rams have potentially going to go to the super bowl this year and get a top five quarterback in this upcoming draft just next level of drafting and gm work by snead he's the best he is i mean he really is good how he had his moments but right now you got to say sneed's the best gm of football.
- [44:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah the way he he went all in traded the picks got the super bowl and now has rebuilt entirely off of draft picks it's impressive totally impressive all right we're on the browns good for us simon says with the eagles so we're narrowing things down top and bottom right there arizona tampa bay tampa bay is a two and a half point favorite majority of bets were coming in on arizona largely because of the baker news and then baker sort of there is news that he's potentially going to play and the news is better than they expected it to be on his injured left shoulder that knocked him out of the game against the rams on sunday night part of me feels a little bit better if it was teddy bridgewater did you know teddy bridgewater has been under five hundred in his career against the spread during just one season in which he was the primary quarterback that was six eight when he was the quarterback for the broncos for fourteen games in twenty twenty one that year as a starter he went five and nine even when he had a record of five and ten with the panthers he went eight and seven against the spread teddy bridgewater we used to call him teddy covers because of how often he would cover when he was a starting quarterback so you know if if everybody is going to be fading the bucks off of that bad loss off of a streak of bad losses off of a baker injury i'll go ahead and fade the public here and lean into the bucs but for some reason i don't want to do if.
- [46:08]
Simon Hunter
It'S baker teddy two gloves yeah i i love this too i was honestly thinking about make the simon says but it feels like cheating because i feel like we no matter what people should be betting this bucks two and a half right now hard rock to me if it is baker you could see this number jump right back up to six six and a half like this number could be moving because that means they're getting baker back and bucky irving that would be a huge huge deal and i'm with you like i don't mind it being teddy but you know for them for themselves to protect baker probably would be the right move right hold him out of this game get that shorter right because i don't know if you watch how he injured it he heard it throwing the ball like he had already heard it he came back into the game yeah he it.
- [46:51]
Chad Millman
Looked like he heard it as he was throwing that long throw like he hurt the left shoulder when he was throwing with his right hand and that's.
- [46:58]
Simon Hunter
Like as someone that doesn't know anything about how to handle injuries or health wouldn't that be the most alarming thing that this guy is in so much grueling pain just throwing the ball is hurting his opposite shoulder the torque of his body is hurting that much so i don't think he plays this feels like a teddy number right they've moved it too much in my opinion like you just said teddy is a covering machine has he lost a step clearly i mean that game he looked totally lost and people are giving a hard time we've talked about it it's really tough coming into games ice cold and never taking reps of the one right you're not mentally you're not there and you haven't had the reps either so the fact that bucky should be back this week with godwin i mean we saw a little bit of god when last week but he didn't really do much in that game it was just everything went wrong for the bucks in that game so i feel like you're totally nailing this one chad like i said i was gonna make it simon says but i feel like it was a little bit of cheating but two and a half i really want people to grab that now i just cannot see it getting any lower than this.
- [47:52]
Chad Millman
No such thing as cheating that's just good betting simon it's true i would.
- [47:56]
Simon Hunter
Just feel terrible if we took it and also you know an hour from now baker's out and then lions up to six again it's like well that helped just me and chad no one.
- [48:04]
Odoo Advertiser
Else.
- [48:07]
Chad Millman
New orleans at miami big move from four and a half to six on this for the dolphins and now it's back down to five and a half i kind of just want this to come back down because i want to bet the dolphins i have done nothing in this game and don't have strong opinions on it yep i'll throw.
- [48:22]
Simon Hunter
Dolphins in a teaser i'll keep it moving well we don't have to waste people's time this one i there's a world where of course the saints can win this one we all know miami's a bad team but we talk all the time you have miami at home one pm in the sun i mean if they're wearing the whites the saints got to wear the blacks i mean they're going to be cooked by the fourth quarter so we always joke we we fade we fade to in the right spots this is the type of two a spot you back them so we're both in the same boat we don't we don't really trust it we don't want to bet too much into it but it does feel like it's it's a good number here five and a half anything under six i'll be.
- [48:57]
Chad Millman
On the dolphins los angeles rams at carolina panthers the carolina panthers are ten point home underdogs and this started going up after the rams dominant performance against the bucks even you know in that first half it was starting to move it's interesting it's the second week in a row where the bookmakers are showing us how much more they respect the nfc west than the nfc south right last week the bucs go into los angeles to play the rams six and a half seven point underdogs the panthers go go into california go into san francisco and they play the panthers seven seven and a half point underdogs now all of a sudden the panthers are ten point dogs to the rams in carolina so are the bookmakers telling us that the carolina panthers who are a five hundred team would be sixteen point underdogs to the rams in los angeles like this number is massive maybe like.
- [50:05]
Simon Hunter
A thirteen point dog is what they're saying but i i get where they're coming from like honestly i'm betting this this carolina team i mean we both are going to bet them like we love this number this feels like a great matchup in a spot for them to bounce back and as great as that rams team has looked you could attack that ram secondary that's that's really to me their biggest weakness defensively like there are guys in their secondary that are just young little green behind the ears and there's there's ways to attack it and coming off his worst performance it's not shocking like who is going to be backing this panther seem so i'm looking forward to hearing all the pros i talked to how they're feeling about this one if they're just avoiding it if they're you know like me really loving this panthers team because you know if this was ten and a half at hard rock this is another game where it's like i could have made this simon says like that felt like way too big of an overreaction this game my model has that seven so i'm getting three and a half points of value on this panthers team so really unique spot and yeah we've talked about this rams team it's different than teams of mcvay's past back in the day you know not even back in the day just a year or two ago mcveigh is no way covering this number he does not play that way he doesn't play to blow out teams right we've seen him a couple times a couple of times this year play against bad teams and just keep the foot on the gas i mean tennessee one really jumps out where he just really leveled them in the second half so you know the seahawks game he pulled back he really didn't do much that tampa game you feel like he pulled back a little bit once baker was out of the game that offense really didn't do much so i'm hoping maybe he get he's back to his old ways chad of taking the foot off the gas and even if we're down twenty four seven heading to the second half we have a ten or a ten and a half point spread here we we are a touchdown away from covering so i just feel like it's way too good of a number even you know he let us down last night but they panthers could have covered that number in so many different ways they had the opportunities so it feels like taking the panthers here is the right spot we need a lot of things to go against us a lot of things to be unlucky about for us not to cover this number so really really inflated number on this rams team which again they should be they're the odds on favorite right now yeah odds on favorite mvp favorite stafford totally get what the books are doing here because this will be in every teaser every parlay i mean the rams are going to be getting hammered here no one thinks panthers could pull off an upset i'm gonna have a little money on this panthers moneyline chad this feels like a nice spot to take this team here to bounce back.
- [52:25]
Chad Millman
Well look i'm not gonna lie to you i'm thinking about a carolina cleveland.
- [52:30]
Simon Hunter
Money line that's gross i love it yeah damn that's gonna be a scene odds i'll look that up for yeah.
- [52:38]
Chad Millman
But but when we were talking about the browns i was thinking this has money line written all over it yeah.
- [52:45]
Simon Hunter
And you know that browns game we've talked about a nauseum it's just we're simply betting on the defense there people we're here as much crap i want to get panthers defense i think they showed up last night we have a good team the panthers are not as bad as people keep making them out to be they are up and down i will give but this is like an egregious number so those two two lines together chad basically nineteen to one that's a nice payout the one thing.
- [53:12]
Chad Millman
That worries me about this panthers team is look jc horn left the game last night puking potential concussion one of their defensive backs had juwan jennings in the nuts who knows if he's going.
- [53:23]
Simon Hunter
To be suspended backs you're right i.
- [53:27]
Chad Millman
Didn'T think about that so there are some concerns here in the backfield that make me a little bit anxious against devonte adams and puka nukua and you know eight different tight ends you know running across the middle so there are some fears that's true if a lenovo.
- [53:44]
Lenovo Advertiser
Computer for your business is on your holiday list don't shop around just go directly to the source lenovo dot com you'll find exclusive deals on the pcs you want for your business like the thinkpad x nine hundred fourteen aura edition and yoga seven i two in one so avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source lenovo dot com where pcs are up to fifty percent off that's lenovo dot com lenovo lenovo.
- [54:14]
Annabe Sofas Advertiser
Time for a sofa upgrade introducing annabe sofas where designer style meets budget friendly prices every ana bay sofa is modular allowing you to rearrange your space effortlessly perfect for both small and large spaces annabe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy liquids simply slide right off designed for custom comfort our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink in feel or a supportive memory foam blend plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years don't compromise clean quality for price visit washablesofas dot com to upgrade your living space today sofas start at just six hundred and ninety nine dollars with no risk returns and a thirty day money back guarantee get early access to black friday now the biggest sale of the year can save you up to sixty percent off plus free shipping and free returns shop now at washablesofas dot com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply this podcast.
- [55:15]
Paypal Advertiser
Is sponsored by paypal all right let's talk holiday shopping from now through december eighth you can get twenty percent cash back when you pay in four with paypal no fees no interest this limited time offer is perfect for the black friday and cyber monday deals you've been eyeing save the offer in the app right now so whether it's a must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing paypal helps you make the most of your money this holiday expires december eighth see paypal dot com promoterms subject to approval learn more at.
- [55:52]
Odoo Advertiser
Paypal dot com payin four paypal inc.
- [55:55]
Simon Hunter
Nmls nine one zero four five seven.
- [55:58]
Degree Cool Rush Advertiser
Today'S episode is brought to you by a scent that's made a legendary comeback degree original cool rush the og is back and better than never cool rush isn't just a scent it's a movement fan favorite it's the kind of fragrance that guys remember ask for by name and rave about online it's bold fresh and delivers all day sweat protection with that cool crisp vibe that made it a legend whether you're heading to the gym the office or just trying to stay fresh on a long day cool rush has your back it's the go to for millions and for good reason so if you haven't tried it yet or if you've been waiting for a sign this is it head to your local walmart or target and grab degree cool rush the fan favorite scent from the world's number one antiperspirant brand running.
- [56:40]
Odoo Advertiser
A business is hard enough so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other one for sales another for inventory a separate one for accounting before you know it you are drowning in software instead of growing your business this is where odoo comes in odoo is the only business software you'll ever need it's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything crm accounting inventory e commerce hr and more no more app overload no more juggling logins just one seamless system makes work easier and the best part odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost it's built to grow with your business whether you are just starting out or already scaling up plus it's easy to use customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters running your business thousands of businesses have made the switch so why not you try odoo for free at odoo dot com that's o d o o dot.
- [57:40]
Chad Millman
Com you know where there aren't fears simon the atlanta falcons at the new york jets the new york jets are currently two and a half point underdogs and the new york jets will be our brass balls bet of the week.
- [57:58]
Simon Hunter
You know what it takes it takes.
- [58:00]
Degree Cool Rush Advertiser
Brass balls.
- [58:03]
Chad Millman
We agreed on this one from the get go the jets were just in a street fight with the ravens but if you look at that game they did hold their own like the the the the drive charts in that game is so they're so ugly punt punt punt downs punt downs punt fumble punt interception like this was a closer game than the score would indicate the public is going to come in on atlanta they're going to be all over kirk cousins because of what they did against the it was hard not to be i'm not going to say impressed with the jets against the ravens but they were competitive more total yards more passing yards more yards per yards per attempt the team is just different with tyrod taylor at quarterback who is much more comfortable throwing down field and much more accurate so i'm fine with the jets at two and a half my only disappointment i won't even say hesitation is i could see this number getting to three and we can't give it out at three because it's two and a half today and that's when we're doing the show and we don't.
- [59:16]
Simon Hunter
Go to overboard taylor he's a covering machine but he did only score ten points in that game so i mean justin fields taylor we don't really care honestly but i i think we're both in agreement this is really about kind of what we had last week where you know i was able to get us off of it because i just i respected the money coming out atlanta but it was just about the shock i could i just kept sitting there being like damn me and chad are back in shuck as a favorite here like am i are we lost in the woods here it did feel like that way as soon as that game started i don't know if they had a stupid fumble or something happened wasn't even chuck's fault but it was just like oh man this saints yeah this is one of those games everything's gonna go wrong for them and it really did and you know props to kirk kirk did play really well kirk is now a two and a half point favorite on the road that to me is right there should jump out to everybody this is a huge mistake to be backing this atlanta team where when you really break it down okay kirk might be able to get his and move the ball here the jets want to run the ball atlanta might have one of the worst run defenses in football honestly like they are so bad against the run they got lucky last week kamara got banged out got knocked out that game really early on and that kind of really moved the away from the run game of the saints right they were like trying to run taysom hill and do stuff like that it just was not clicking where you know breece hall he's been great all season and i love this matchup for him so it fields back if it's taylor i like both of them obviously my view of taylor is he's a covering machine you go through his data i think he's now covered six straight games he started and finished taylor so he's been great as a backup coming and covering games and the public continues to undervalue him so i do agree with you that part it probably is a better thing to have taylor he's just more consistent and safer but i also love the upside with with fields in the run game against this this atlanta team like their linebackers one on one with fields they will lose that battle every time same with breeze hall like they just do not have the guys with the wheels to stand up against those two type of athletes so yeah we we both love this one coming into it our only hesitation is well let's get the three like that was the only thing we worried about is we don't want to give out you guys a bad line here but i think the pros will be all over this one i could easily see this game getting down to one and a half pick by kickoff come sunday so i love this one i could easily see this being our contest come.
- [61:25]
Chad Millman
Sunday as well maybe we're doing a cleveland carolina jets moneyline parlay maybe that's maybe we're just all over the money lines my god this week let's just be gross let's get let's give thanks for the opportunity to bet tyrod taylor and shador sanders and bryce young you're not wrong about the saints last week like the falcons all the flowers for kirk right but but the saints had two missed field goals and turn the ball over on downs on the falcons one yard line so it's not like that game and it was ugly for us and it never felt like we were in it but we really weren't ever out of it until the very end when the falcons got that game securing touchdown and ended up winning you know twenty four six or whatever but like that's a that's a game that the public didn't really watch they just see kirk cous coming back and winning by eighteen points and all of a sudden they're two and a half point favorites on the road against the jets so that's a game we're definitely going to be betting for sure jacksonville tennessee tennessee is a six and a half point one hundred up let's do ourselves a favor let's skip it because we cannot get it right with this titans.
- [62:41]
Simon Hunter
Team no but like our hate for trevor lawrence goes further than that so we we'll be with i'm assuming you'll be on it with me i'll be on tennessee but like chad just said god happy to avoid it but yeah i i hate this tennessee team so much so we're backing on a tennessee team here with the back door but i also feel like it's a game tennessee could win i just can't get over how bad trevor lawrence is like i went back and re watched that cards game so bad we didn't cover it it's just so sickening to me he is horrible he is horrible and in this matchup you've seen those last couple weeks jeffrey simmons coming in the run defense has improved so much for tennessee since he's been back so yeah tennessee is terrible we hate him but ain't no way i'm betting jags and minus six and a half point favorite on the road so like you said i i just we'll avoid it we'll have to discuss it again thank god for the rest of the week but in my pick pools and everything like that i will be on tennessee tennessee.
- [63:38]
Chad Millman
Part of the moneyline parlay cam ward shador sanders bryce young tyrod taylor we're putting them all in a moneyline parlay and we're going to give thanks i can see all these quarterbacks i can by the way can't you i can.
- [63:52]
Simon Hunter
No it's it makes sense it totally.
- [63:55]
Chad Millman
Makes sense i actually don't know that i've had this much clarity on anything the entire season i'm so ready even.
- [64:04]
Simon Hunter
If we go two and two that's.
- [64:05]
Chad Millman
A great hit i love watching how angry liam cohn gets on the sideline watching trevor lawrence like i feel like i know exactly what is in his head and he's trying to manage his frustrations with a child who does not learn any of the lessons that you try to teach them every single day.
- [64:32]
Simon Hunter
He just doesn't learn from his mistakes it's so bizarre it's like the number one thing with humans the reason we've survived for two million years however long we've been here is we learn from our mistakes you make a mistake and you do your best not to keep making that same mistake his regression like we've talked about his regression has been alarming these last two three years it's just crazy and we we made excuses for him we did all of us did we're like well it's the injuries right it's the coaching around him all this stuff and it's like this year you could be like well his number one number two receivers are out that could be part of it dude these these these picks are egregious just horrible horrible reads and throws right to a defender's chest just no excuses so i like we've said i i don't want to keep going how much i am down on trevor lawrence everyone's down on them but i think they have like three or four years left of all guaranteed like forty million dollars per year type of deal with the jags just terrible terrible decision paying this man all.
- [65:27]
Chad Millman
That money listen everyone's down on him but i think we were down on him first i can guarantee like we started talking about that last year we.
- [65:36]
Simon Hunter
Were both swarm off yes you you drank a little bit of kool a i will say you took them to win this division i think i did a fair fact of you trusted the coach not trevor though so that's where i'll give you the grace of like well your read's not terrible you trusted the coach no one's trusting trevor lawrence he is just a train wreck total.
- [65:55]
Chad Millman
Train wreck it's going to be fun to see how they figure out what to do with him speaking of quarterbacking train wrecks simon minnesota at seattle seattle is a ten point favorite the cumulative stats this week and the piling on about jj mccarthy and how poorly he's playing has really become kind of mean spirited right the the they're just piling up one stat i saw noted that he would have had a better qb rating this past week against the packers if he had downed the ball on purpose every single time instead of what he actually did in the game he is last in the league in just about every category there are some stats going around about his historically bad start being putting him as sort of the worst quarterback start in a decade and then he mysteriously popped up in the concussion protocol on monday which means that max brosmer an undrafted free agent from minnesota by way of new hampshire is going to be getting first team reps i want to see if i can convince you at some point this week to bet on the minnesota vikings minnesota vikings at plus ten plus ten and a half against this seattle team because this vikings defense is exactly what gives sam darnold the biggest problems yeah you're.
- [67:23]
Simon Hunter
Probably right i'm probably missing on this game i'm just i i honestly don't want to invest in this game either side if i'm being honest i might end up having some money on seattle maybe i'll get there eventually but this vikings team could improve with this kid coming as a quarterback but from everything i've seen and read i don't know if it's gonna be that much better buddy honestly like they just they put themselves in such a horrible embarrassment they really have you know you let daniel jones you let sam darnold walk out that door last year and i i think me and you're on the same page where you know you you more so you respect koc way more than i do i love him that you do where i am still like this guy is good but he is not this mcveigh shanahan type that people make him out to be i still put them a ring below i put him in the sirianni level where i have questions about this guy and some of the things he does this to me is on him you know for a fact yes coach of the year last year the ownership came to him and said who do you want to pay sam or do you believe in jj he said i believe in nine nine and this guy i mean we had it we had a guy on our show he's a man mitchell guy i don't know if his name was thor or something he's a twitter personality yeah yeah he's great he is he's someone who's been all in on jj and i just every time this guy does something terrible i think of him and where it's like this is the hardest part about being a fan where you have blind love and you know hope for your quarterback of the future and i would love to know if even he has given up yet because to me you like again most times i'm going to give a guy a year or two to figure it out jj like chad says been so historically bad to me he is deader than dead he if you look at his numbers compared to jamarcus russell yes the biggest bust in all football history he is worse per play than jamarcus russell a guy who did not watch tape didn't watch tape that jj's worse than him so you know pros got sucked into it before the year professionals talked about like you know coming to the season how much they love jj this vikings team was a sleeper team to them you know i think i even made a bet on jj to win mvp like eighty one because i had some pros in my ears telling me i didn't know how good this kid's gonna be and how to i gotta trust koc just an absolute trainer here chad so i get what you're doing here you're bank you're not betting on the offense you're betting on the vikings defense that practice sam darnold they know sam darnold's tennessee they should have an advantage here i just i i think your read is right you're buying low as well in this vikings team i just can't get there i mean my god that if you can't convert a third and five how are you going to stay competitive in a game so i don't know if i can trust a kid to convert third and fives against a seattle defense that they're really good they got they didn't cover last week because they played you know a really shell defense cover too to end that fourth quarter and anytime cam ward needed to pick up a first down he used his legs that was to me the reason that game switched so if this vikings get that's coming in can use his legs and pick up first downs that way there is a way for you to cover this number so i don't hate the idea chad i just all the unknowns here i can't back the vikings with you here but i i do get your read and i like where you're coming from listen.
- [70:36]
Chad Millman
I don't know anything about max brosmer except what i read on wikipedia that he went to new hampshire and then went to minnesota i can't tell you all i can tell you is that sam darnold when he's getting pressure and we've seen it with the rams specifically once against the vikings and once against the seahawks that's when he struggles the most and they have been prone to turnovers this year and their running game hasn't been as good as they would like it to be so it's very likely that the game could be put in sam darnold's hands and i'm not saying he isn't a worthy quarterback who can win games for you and is going to put this team in a position to be a super bowl contender again this year like he did with the vikings last year but that's just a huge huge number against a quarterback who nobody has seen can they score fourteen freaky points in the first quarter can it get hard for the vikings to for the seahawks to get to twenty eight after that like it could be a competitive game and this vikings defense is good like it's not a bad defense so yeah like again we.
- [71:51]
Simon Hunter
We forget it because it was more than three weeks ago but jj went to detroit and won twenty seven to twenty four like this vikings team can right that's the win games with despite having nothing at quarterback but man it is you need a lot of things.
- [72:04]
Chad Millman
To go your way it is weird for jj i don't know how he comes back from all this you know and who knows if he's in the concussion protocol because they're like we got to find a way to get this guy off the field like he's struggling right now and he might not be able to come back from this i started having visions of oh my god is this a trey lance brock purdy situation like if max brosmer comes in and he's amazing for the next two weeks all of a sudden is jj mccarthy on the outs this ends it's.
- [72:36]
Simon Hunter
Going to be jj versus our guy mac jones next august in camp oh yeah they're gonna bring in they're gonna bring in someone like exactly like that and see if jj can't beat him out give that guy the job i just i mean we're we're upset about i can't imagine the front office in koc right now just staring in the mirror being like we had we had the guy we let him go for.
- [72:57]
Chad Millman
This like yeah train wreck interesting max mac jones that's interesting las vegas at the los angeles charges the chargers are nine and a half point favorites chip kelly he is out doesn't make a difference i don't know do i want to bet this game no thanks yeah.
- [73:18]
Simon Hunter
Same i like i i want to be on the i want to be on the raiders but i'm not going to force it and there's tens out there if you want to grab it but yeah this is not going to be even close to one of my top ten bets this week it's just happy to avoid this one and just not watch a second of it buffalo.
- [73:33]
Chad Millman
At pittsburgh pittsburgh is a three and a half point underdog right now i'm just trying to figure out what the steelers are good at their defense is kind of suspect their passing game is inconsistent there are people in pittsburgh who are losing it about mike tomlin right now wondering if he has passed his prime both teams need this game desperately for any kind of playoff positioning.
- [74:03]
Simon Hunter
I.
- [74:03]
Chad Millman
Want to bet the steelers because they're home dogs of more than a field goal and this is kind of when you got to do it but i don't want to bet the steelers.
- [74:15]
Simon Hunter
No it's a game that we have to bet chad you just said it though it's you're getting an undervalued steelers team against a billstream that's still to me being overvalued by the public like that that defense they have some weeks where they do show up like that chiefs game i felt like they showed up and they were playing fast and hard and they were good against the run and then you see a game like they had last week where it's like they can't stop anybody and josh allen struggling as well like they made houston and davis mills look like a legit contender like they were looked like they were the better team in this bills team so i honestly wanted to be on the bills i was like okay this will be a nice bounce back spot maybe we'll get the bill as minus one and a half minus two and a half favorite they opened it like three and a half four to a lot of books so you know pretty shocking they opened the number where they did it's a ton of respect to just how great josh allen is but he's just been all inconsistent all year and losing games he shouldn't lose all year and it's like it's just like the chiefs and we talk about that's why this year has been so fun it's not the same old teams we're used to because we talk all the time if you don't draft well it eventually catches up this bills team they've organizationally not that they've wasted josh john's career but they've never addressed the defense they never went out and got him the number one i mean coleman you know we took a ton of because i was talking about steven stephen stephen smith said he wasn't a starting receiver in this league you know this is what two weeks they've sat him now because he's so immature and they can't trust him to block and do things they need him to do consistently downfield and i like i said i want to be on the spills team but something just feels off they had that horrible loss to atlanta you know they had the bye week they bounced back right they dominated the panthers they beat the chiefs huge win but then they dropped that embarrassing game to the miami and then they come back and have a huge dominant win again against tampa that we talked about tampa if they didn't go three and out probably should have covered kept that game on much closer just josh allen hit that next level in the fourth quarter the week the following week josh allen couldn't do what he'd done the week before right he couldn't be that hero in the fourth quarter so this feels like another number where the books are saying he's going to cover you he's going to get that late cover and the public is drinking it they're coming in so heavy on the spills team this is the exact spot we do back tomlin and the steelers team and like you said we don't trust them their defense seems off i do think josh allen could get his but i think offensively with gainwell and hopefully dk is healthy in this matchup i think they'll be able to move the ball a steelers team even if it is mason rudolph who you know can't throw the ball more than twenty yards downfield or doesn't have the confidence to do it he still moved the ball semi against that bears team in different ways where they schemed it up to get guys open so it's it's not a game i'm banging on the table right now maybe come sunday morning i'll be more confident just because i know it's rodgers and not mason rudolph but it feels like we're just back in the number here in tomlin we're trusting a spot with tomlin here at three and a half and fading a bills team that just doesn't feel like to me they deserve to have a three and a half hook they just they're so bad they've just been so bad defensive this year and they're just asking josh allen to do so much with no name receivers i mean i i just can't get over the fact they failed him like this like how do you not go get him a number one it's just it's malpractice it really is like you're just wasting years of what we keep every year we talk about he's a top two top three number one quarterback in this league and it just feels that they're wasting it they're just wasting it so i'm people can hear my voice i don't want to be on the steelers team but it feels like i have to i have to take this number here and fade the public and all their love on the spills team it's just way too much number and i'm looking now chad there were fours when we started the show they've all come down there's there's one four out there still in my area but most books are moving back to three and a half so some early professional money here on the steelers side.
- [78:05]
Chad Millman
All right wouldn't have been great if miles garrett and josh allen could have been on the same team the all wasted talent team with josh allen and miles garrett we should have figured that one out let's talk about the prime time games our prime time spotlight we all know people are going to figure out a way to bet them first one up denver six and a half point favorite at the washington commanders tricky one to really handicap on a tuesday of thanksgiving week five six days before the game because we just don't know about jaden daniels and there's rumors that he might be able to play he's inching back being a little bit more healthy we don't know for sure hard to have honestly it's just hard to have an opinion on this game right.
- [78:49]
Simon Hunter
Now that's fair i'll be on washington but it is hard to have an opinion on it obviously washington's biggest weaknesses by far their defense they're just terrible you think sean payton but just have a field day here like this is such a dream match for him scheme wise so many ways to attack this defense if he chooses to and you know if it's daniels that's why i'm bending now if it is daniels i could see it move another two or three points it could come down a little bit more so i'll i'll back watching early here but like chad said i'm in no rush to bet this one the crowd is psyched cause all my ratty friends are back for monday.
- [79:22]
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- [79:25]
Chad Millman
The new york giants resurgent competitive for two weeks in a row with jameis winston new york giants took the packers down to the wire took the lions into overtime lost both games dramatically now they're visiting the new england patriots they are seven and a half point underdogs monday night football we don't know at this point if it's going to be jameis or jackson dart my feeling is it's going to be jackson dart he did practice last week he traveled with the team that indicates to me that he's probably going to be ready to go i think the real issue here simon is who's playing on the left side of the offensive line for the new england patriots because they had players just being carted off on sunday in that game that they barely covered against the bengals so i know where i'm going to lean in this game do you want to say it do you want me to say it do we want to be disgusting together do you want to say it on the count of three one two three giants.
- [80:27]
Simon Hunter
Giants giants giants giants you weren't with.
- [80:30]
Chad Millman
Me on that we weren't coordinated well.
- [80:33]
Simon Hunter
Zoom it sinks us out i thought if we say at the same time but yeah i love the giants as well we talked before the show we almost i almost made in my assignment says you almost made a chad's choice it's really about this defensive line for the giants against what we are presuming now is going to be their backup left tackle and their backup left guard which is a huge deal that was honestly their biggest strength it felt like when i was really looking at the run scheme board a lot of their big runs and gains are to that side and pass blocking wise same thing it's a side where they can leave one on one matchups where they usually chip to the right side either with a tight end or the running back now what are they going to do right they're going to do are they going to do more twelve personnel to try to protect remain because this is a terrible match for them right they have two different guys on the defense line of the giants that make and use athleticism against them right burns will be able to catch him carter will be able to catch them like they're they're just as just as fast as him so this nine at hard rock in jersey is already down to seven so since we started the show this line has moved a couple other sevens popping up people if you hear this go grab it go grab this giants team i i think this will keep coming down if dark gets cleared i could see this going below six like that's how big of an upgrade he is offensively as much as we love winston the running aspect with dart is a game changer right the way they can use his legs you see with kafka give him tons of credit he's really schemed up a great offense here these last couple weeks since he's taken over right like they just feel like they're always kind of keeping teams on their toes and throwing them off and so you know as much as i want to be scared off on this one because like we're buying high on jamis it's really not appearing that way like a money is from the public coming in on this patriots team they're still believing this patriots team where i think me and you are in agreeance they're overlooking how big of a deal it is losing two key starters offensive line with a young quarterback here so you know really fun game i could see us end up getting it as one of our five especially come sunday if we know it's dart and we do get a seven half in contest i just love this number so much so yeah hopefully people hear this to the bill's public books i know hard rock's gone but two very public books still have seven and a half's out there so i hope people can get.
- [82:38]
Chad Millman
That before it goes away right now we are looking at philadelphia minus six and a half for sunday morning conversation don't forget simon says is philadelphia i think i think i should say from.
- [82:52]
Simon Hunter
The top channel i'm gonna cut you off we'll tweet out if anything on thursday if wednesday tomorrow chad reaches out to me or i reach out to him we we say we really like line and we will put in the contest maybe since he gets in there because if it is joe burrow and lamar's in practice all week and we're getting seven and a half or six and a half i don't know about you chad i'll be very tempted to take cincy and same goes to cowboys cowboys three and a half i'll be very tempted to take that as well so i will i promise post anything no shady business we will let people know hopefully twenty four hours for ahead of time if we do settle on.
- [83:24]
Chad Millman
A thursday game we are a transparent literate podcast that's what we do we talked about indie minus four i don't know if we'll get there on that too much cleveland plus five and a half was chad's choice i think we love it we're going to play that on the money line as well bucks minus two and a half is definitely going to be in the conversation carolina plus ten it's going to be hard not to have that in the conversation the new york jets plus two and a half that is brass balls that will one hundred percent be in the conversation pittsburgh plus three and a half maybe and the new york football giants plus seven and a half go and grab it we know we'll want to have that in the conversation don't forget we will be back on sunday not thursday sunday when we'll go over the moneyline parlays we're doing for favorites and dogs we'll do our rocking a hard place bet of the week we'll do the biggest bets we'll do an abbreviated sharp calls just so we can get it all out of our system also we will be bringing the contest back it's going to start week fourteen if you want to sign up right now go do it it's going to be a free pick them contest that will run until the end of the football season including the playoffs we're going to get nine weeks five bets a week against the spread as we get into the playoffs we'll adjust and figure out what the other bets are going to be we're all going to be betting from the same lines you're going to compete against me and simon for fantastic prizes from our sponsors at hard rock bet we're super excited to bring it back sharp or square dot the volume is the website we'll have all the details as well on next tuesday's show watch or listen to us on youtube at sharpersquare like the video subscribe to the channel download us from spotify apple pods wherever you get your pods rate review subscribe leave us five stars say whatever you want feedback as a gift until next time love you it's nice.
- [85:35]
Simon Hunter
To get together with the families but in a time when it seems fashionable to be critical of those things we don't have and to be angry at everything it might be nice to step back and look at the things that we do have the good things we share in life and to be thankful.
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Simon Hunter
Said.
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Simon Hunter
Lenovo lenovo.
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App ends twelve thirty one see paypal dot com promoter points can be redeemed for cash and more paying for subject to terms and approval paypal inc and mls nine one zero four five seven.
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Enjoy a.
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