The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharp or Square – NFL WEEK 13 REACTIONS

Date: December 1, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Podcast Theme:
Dissecting the bets, razor-thin margins, coaching decisions, and lingering storylines from NFL Week 13, with an eye for what makes a bet “sharp” or “square.” Millman and Hunter analyze their picks, sweat the bad beats, and debate the offensive and defensive directions of the league's most intriguing teams.

1. Episode Overview

This episode focuses on betting and football analysis from NFL Week 13. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down emotional fan moments, close games, betting wins and losses, and the undercurrents shaping the playoff chase. They use sharp (professional/better-informed) vs. square (public/uninformed) language to evaluate games, often highlighting confounding coaching, aggressive defenses, and the agony/ecstasy of betting on ugly, low-scoring teams.

2. Key Discussion Points and Game Breakdowns

A. The Hosts’ Fan Agony & Ecstasy (03:33–06:28)

• Chad's Bears and Hoosiers Optimism: “The football teams that I love the most…the Chicago Bears and the Indiana Hoosiers, are two of the best teams in all of the land right now. …Did not see either of these scenarios happening as we head into December here.” (Chad Millman, 03:33)
• Importance of coaches connecting with their city and fans.

B. Bet Recap: The Agony and the Ecstasy (06:36–08:06)

• Week's contest picks:
  • Winners: Texans (+4.5), Jets (+2.5)
  • Losers: Browns (+5.5), Steelers (+3.5)
  • Giants (+7.5) to be decided next day.
• Emphasized swings of betting on low-offense teams, record game-winning finishes.

C. Game Breakdown Highlights

1. Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (08:08–12:23)

• Last-second betting switch due to Daniel Jones’ injury.
• Simon: Props Texans’ defensive turnaround; Colts only succeed when Jonathan Taylor scores.
• Millman critiques Texans’ play-calling—great defense, but “dreadful in the red zone. There’s no creativity, there's no misdirection.” (Chad Millman, 11:02)

2. Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers (12:23–18:24)

• Short field kills Browns: “Four of their five scoring drives started on the Browns’ 40, the Browns’ 18, the Browns’ 26 and the Browns’ 14.” (Chad Millman, 12:45)
• Special teams gaffes doomed Cleveland.
• Simon: “Sanders just totally laid an egg…should have known better than to back this Browns team after a huge road win.” (15:30)
• Sideline drama with Niners WR Jauan Jennings and Browns defenders led to trash talk and "divo" WR nostalgia.

3. Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (18:36–23:13)

• The ugliest win: “There’s no way to break it down…you just gotta trust these ugly dogs sometimes.” (Simon Hunter, 19:16)
• Wild swings, missed FGs, and questionable coaching/betting volatility defined this game.
• Discussion on coaching incentives (“He’s been told, I am sure, he needs to go for two in that exact scenario…He’s not listening to them.” Simon, 22:47).

4. Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (24:03–30:06)

• Chippy first half: multiple personal fouls set a nasty tone.
• Key turning point: “First play [after halftime]. He gets hit. Strip-sack. Bills score right away. No commercial break.” (Simon, 25:40)
• Bills win despite Josh Allen's limited passing—rushing for 250+ yards, the most allowed by the Steelers at home in 50 years: “This is not the football we are used to from the 2000s…” (Simon, 27:27)
• Notable stat: Josh Allen sets all-time rushing TD record for QBs, passing Cam Newton.

3. Extended Betting and League Discussion

On the Steelers (35:55–37:18):

• Viewer asks why they keep betting on a frustrating, underperforming Steelers squad.
• Simon: “If we can avoid them the rest of the year, I’d be very happy.”

AFC Playoff Picture (37:35–40:32):

• Excluding “old guard” (Baltimore, Buffalo, KC), excitement around Denver and New England for their defenses, with Texans noted for defense but hamstrung by poor red zone offense.
• Both struggle to trust Bo Nix and rookie QBs under playoff pressure.

Minnesota Vikings & JJ McCarthy QB Situation (41:21–45:03):

• Discussion around McCarthy, rookie Max Brosmer’s struggles, and the challenge of gambling when betting on a complete unknown at quarterback.
• “You got a total zero from the unknown at the quarterback position…” (Simon Hunter, 44:19)

4. Rapid-Fire Game Reactions

Carolina Panthers vs. LA Rams (46:03–50:36):

• Panthers’ comeback. Praise for Bryce Young’s “clutch gene”—most comeback wins to start a career.
• Millman self-flagellates for backing off Panthers despite their dog pedigree: “Shame on me. Shame on Chad Millman.”

5. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On trusting “ugly dogs”:
  “These stupid games, you just gotta trust these ugly dogs sometimes.”
  — Simon Hunter (19:16)

• Millman on Texans’ red zone woes:
  “Their defense is great…but their offensive play-calling…is going to be the death knell for them as they get into the postseason.”
  — Chad Millman (11:02)

• Simon, on the emotionally crushing Browns-49ers game:
  “Special teams, you know, they give up that punt, I think they got down to the 15…defensively, they're doing their part, they're holding up.”
  — Simon Hunter (13:36)

• On the Steelers’ constant temptation as a betting pick:
  “There’s certain spots where it just feels like they’re going to be undervalued and we'll eventually have to jump on them. But yeah, for contest wise, if we can avoid…I'm with the guy.”
  — Simon Hunter (36:33)

• On why not to trust Lamar Jackson in playoffs:
  “I just still, I'd rather take Drake May or Bo over Lamar because I've just seen Lamar choke so many times in the playoffs.”
  — Simon Hunter (41:21)

6. Hero/Shame Segment (48:35–54:45)

Shame:

• Chad: For not backing Panthers as big home dogs after years of doing so, overvaluing injury news.
• Simon: NFL referees, for Thanksgiving miscues—"People are losing their minds. ...They have to let either call down the New York thing or let these coaches have one challenge."

Hero:

• Chad: Tyrod Taylor – “He was the reason we bet the game. ...You are the reason we are two and two right now.” (53:46)
• Simon: Themselves, for not chasing cold picks into Thanksgiving’s betting slate.

7. Early Leans & Week 14 Betting Discussion (58:36–62:26)

• Simon:

  • Likes Jets +3 early in case the line drops due to weather.
  • Considers Chiefs -4 against Houston, expecting public to fade KC.
  • Colts -1.5 vs. possibly-injured Daniel Jones’ team.

• Chad:

  • Noted Jets +3 at open; observes line movement to +2.5.
  • Highlights Cowboys-Detroit line shift; mentions Commanders favored if Mario plays well, advises acting early.

8. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bears & Hoosiers fan rant: 03:33–06:28
• Bets of the week recap: 06:36–08:06
• Texans vs. Colts: 08:08–12:23
• Browns vs. 49ers: 12:23–18:24
• Falcons vs. Jets: 18:36–23:13
• Bills vs. Steelers: 24:03–30:06
• Steelers betting debate: 35:55–37:18
• AFC playoff landscape: 37:35–40:32
• Vikings QB/matchup expose: 41:21–45:03
• Panthers vs. Rams, betting regrets: 46:03–50:36
• Hero/Shame segment: 48:35–54:45
• Early week 14 leans: 58:36–62:26

9. Episode Tone and Final Thought

• The hosts, especially Chad, bring a self-deprecating, wry humor, with Simon blending sharper professional analysis with a gambler’s fatalism. They riff back and forth, sharing fan anxiety, sharp betting wisdom, and the camaraderie of contest suffering.
• The podcast ends with encouragement to join their free contest, reminders of the unrelenting grind of NFL betting, and a little gallows humor:
  “This is NFL, which stands for not for long when you make them calls.”
  — Simon Hunter (64:38)

For listeners who missed the episode:
This was a hard-hitting, sometimes irreverent conversation about the paradoxes and pain points of NFL Week 13—from the red zone futility of contenders, to the dark pleasures of betting on hopeless teams, and the kaleidoscopic chaos of a season where the only guarantee is total unpredictability.