The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharp or Square: NFL Week 14 Bets Date: December 3, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: The Volume & iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

This episode of the "Sharp or Square" series is a deep-dive into Week 14’s NFL betting lines, featuring expert betting analysis, model-driven opinions, and gut-level reactions from professional bettor Simon Hunter and Action Network’s Chad Millman. The duo break down marquee matchups—including Cowboys-Lions, Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Steelers-Ravens, Bears-Packers, and more—while grappling with tricky spreads, shifting narratives, injury reports, and trend reversals.

The episode maintains the classic Sharp or Square tone: sports-nerd humor, betting war stories, and the hosts vacillating between sharp numbers and public narratives. They weave in their own betting contest and encourage audience participation, all while holding themselves accountable for last week’s results.

Segment Summaries, Key Points, and Quotes

1. NFL Betting Contest Announcement

Timestamps: 06:07 – 12:00

• A community betting contest is open at sharpor square.thevolume.com.
• Format: Select five games ATS (against the spread) each week with a tiebreaker.
• Lines: Dynamic with the market; always half-points to eliminate ties.
• Eligibility: US residents 21+, except RI and WA.
• Prize: Winner gets a trip to Florida with tickets to Grizzlies vs. Heat (Feb 21st).

Quote [08:29]:
"It couldn’t be easier. You just select five games against the spread each week along with one tiebreaker question... throughout the entire contest." — Matt Mitchell

2. Game Breakdowns & Picks

Cowboys at Lions

Timestamps: 12:25 – 18:21

• Line: Detroit -3, falling from -3.5
• Both see value in Dallas if following models/trends, but betting public’s love for Dallas and Lions’ injuries muddle the read.
• Simon is wary of backing the public side, despite recognizing that “the Cowboys line is off.”
• Chad details Detroit’s offensive line regression as a game-changer.
• Memorable Quote [14:39]: “Everything for Detroit's success in every single way starts with their offensive line. They do not have the same interior offensive line that they had last year... and that interior line is where everything starts." — Chad Millman

Commanders at Vikings

Timestamps: 18:22 – 22:14

• Market moving toward Washington as a trendy dog if Jaden Daniels returns from injury.
• “Simon Says” official play: Commanders +1.
• Quote [22:04]: “Commanders. If you can get the Commanders as an underdog, I think you have to get it.” — Simon Hunter

Colts at Jaguars

Timestamps: 22:14 – 28:47

• Chad leans Colts (bet early at -1.5), Simon's model and division trends say Jaguars are strong as a dog.
• Both reference Jags dominating Colts ATS for nearly a decade.
• Quote [26:46]: “This Colts organization, three and sixteen against the spread against the Jaguars.” — Simon Hunter

Saints at Buccaneers

Timestamps: 28:47 – 33:52

• Line: Bucs -9
• Simon’s model says spread is 2 points too high, with Saints historically strong as NFC South underdogs.
• Quote [31:04]: “They have not had a relevant quarterback since Drew Brees... they’ve just been a covering machine as an underdog in their division.” — Simon Hunter

Dolphins at Jets

Timestamps: 34:10 – 39:14

• Line: Jets +2.5
• Official “Chad’s Choice” pick: Jets +2.5 (preferably +3)
• Millman cites Tua's weather struggles; Taylor's career ATS record impresses.
• Quote [37:43]: “Tyrod Taylor is just consistently underrated by the market. He has been his whole career.” — Chad Millman

Titans at Browns

Timestamps: 44:51 – 50:04

• Line: Browns -3.5, sliding down from -4.5
• Both feel drawn to Browns’ dominant defense despite market money on Titans.
• Cam Ward’s risky tendencies vs. Browns’ pass rush is highlighted.
• Quote [48:32]: “This is just, just an insane spot for this Browns defense to be in against the Titans offense that has shown nothing all season.” — Simon Hunter

Seahawks at Falcons

Timestamps: 50:04 – 54:09

• Line: Seahawks -7 (was 7.5)
• Simon sides with Seattle due to coaching edge and defensive road performance.
• Quote [52:49]: “Seattle team... we got to put them in the same category as the Rams. They're an absolute juggernaut and probably the top three best team in the NFC.” — Simon Hunter

Steelers at Ravens

Timestamps: 54:27 – 62:17

• Line: Ravens -5.5 (down from 6.5)

• Lifelong trend: Dogs dominate this rivalry, but current Pittsburgh collapse has Simon going against the trend with Baltimore.

• Memorable Trend [57:25]: “Since 2005, the underdog in this series, 29, 12, and 3 against the spread. So just if you blindly have just bet the dog in this series since 2005, you are hitting a 71% clip.” — Simon Hunter

• Turn Point [60:32]: "Half of the battle when you're betting is to figure out when the trend is no longer the right side. ... Something is off." — Simon Hunter

Bengals at Bills

Timestamps: 62:18 – 66:03

• Line: Bills -5.5
• Public money on Bengals, but their run defense is a liability vs. a surging Buffalo ground attack.
• Chad recites ugly Bills pass defense stats; Simon notes Burrow's historical success as a dog.
• Quote [64:24]: “When [Burrow’s] an underdog of three points or more, now he's eighteen and three... it is profitable.” — Chad Millman

Broncos at Raiders

Timestamps: 66:20 – 68:21

• Line: Broncos -7.5
• Pure pass; both hosts have zero conviction or excitement.

Bears at Packers

Timestamps: 71:47 – 78:35

• Line: Packers -6.5

• Chad juxtaposes Chicago euphoria for new coach Ben Johnson with years of Green Bay dominance.

• Public betting hard on Bears; history sharply favors Pack.

• Quote [74:44]: "Bears are 1 and 11 straight up against the Packers... they're 10 and 2 against the spread in that run." — Simon Hunter

• Bet split: Chad dreams of Chicago glory; Simon leans Packers out of spite for excessive local hype.

Rams at Cardinals

Timestamps: 78:35 – 83:45

• Line: Rams -8 (was 8.5)
• Rams coach Sean McVay’s late-season & divisional stats are exceptional (“McVay is the Cardinals’ daddy”).
• Quote [81:14]: “It is December. It is Sean McVay’s month... 25 and 11 against the spread in December.” — Chad Millman

3. Primetime Games

Texans at Chiefs

Timestamps: 83:45 – 87:37

• Line: Chiefs -3 (from -4.5)
• Sharp money on Houston, but Chad and Simon agree the number is finally short enough to prefer KC.
• Quote [85:25]: “I’m going to hold on to the Chiefs with my fingernails and I feel like right now at three the numbers moved too much.” — Chad Millman

Eagles at Chargers (Monday Night)

Timestamps: 87:37 – 90:58

• Line: Eagles -2.5 (was -3)
• Herbert’s injured non-throwing hand clouds betting landscape.
• Simons: “I’ve taken a piece of this Eagles team, especially now it’s at two and a half…”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Commanders-Vikings Line Move:
  "If you can get the Commanders as an underdog, I think you have to get it.” — Simon Hunter, [22:04]

• On Tyrod Taylor:
  "Tyrod Taylor is just consistently underrated by the market. He has been his whole career." — Chad Millman, [37:43]

• On Bears’ New Coach Worship:
  “This is Ben Johnson’s town. This is Benjamin Dick—like euphoria.” — Chad Millman, [76:44]

• On Divisional Dog Trends (Steelers-Ravens):
  “If you blindly have just bet the dog in this series since 2005, you are hitting a 71% clip, which is... the dream.” — Simon Hunter, [57:25]

• On Knowing When Trends Break:
  “Half the battle when you're betting is to figure out when the trend is no longer the right side.” — Simon Hunter, [60:32]

Betting Philosophy Recap & Reflections

• Recognize when trends (Steelers as dogs, Bears futility, Rams > Cardinals in December) start to break down due to injuries, personnel shifts, or franchise “vibes.”
• Weigh advanced modeling and sharp trends against narrative-driven market overreactions.
• Acknowledge the pain and paradox of betting “public sides” versus staying sharp.
• Dynamic, collaborative handicapping is key—“We will revisit after Thursday” and as more injury news develops.

Final Sharp/Square Lean Summary

Sharps for Week 14 (early leans):

• Commanders +1 (“Simon Says”)
• Jaguars as divisional dog
• Saints +9 (historical division dog trend)
• Jets +2.5 or +3 (“Chad’s Choice”)
• Browns -3.5 (against public dog Titans)
• Seahawks -7 (coaching/def swagger)
• Ravens -5.5 (breaking historical dog trend)
• Bills -5.5 (fade public Cincy hype)
• Rams -8 (McVay December narrative)
• Chiefs -3 (buying back faded KC value)
• Eagles -2.5, depending on Herbert news

This episode delivers exactly what Sharp or Square fans expect: detailed, humor-laced breakdowns, sharp-vs-public introspection, live model updates, and a deeply honest approach to sports betting decision-making.

Listen for: The sharp contest chat, candid banter about moments of self-doubt, and memorable trend breakdowns—plus the phrase “Ben Johnson’s town,” which captures the Bears’ current feeling perfectly.