The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 14 Reactions

Date: December 8, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Theme: Reactions and breakdowns of NFL Week 14, betting performances, biggest moments, and preview of Week 15 lines.

Episode Overview

This episode of Sharp or Square is a deep-dive reaction and betting recap of NFL Week 14's most notable matchups. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dissect their decisions and results in the weekly contest, discuss lessons from major games, identify heroes and goats, and offer early leans for Week 15 lines. True to the show’s theme, they scrutinize how “sharp” (wiseguy) and “square” (public) bettors did, highlight critical trends, and keep the tone candid and self-effacing.

Key Game Breakdowns & Reactions

1. Bears vs. Packers

• Bears lose after a strong showing from rookie Caleb:
  • Chad: “I want so much for Caleb... this was the best second half he's had as a Bear. He made brilliant throws, he made gutsy throws except for that last play which was devastating.” (03:51)
  • Simon: “Vegas strikes again. Six and a half line lands right on seven... doesn't matter how it gets there, it always gets there somehow.” (04:19)
  • Takeaway: Despite strong flashes from the Bears, the Packers' efficiency on key downs sealed the win. Both hosts highlight the Bears' grit but lament the missed opportunity and the cruel predictability of the lines.

2. Colts vs. Jaguars

• Jags dominate amidst injury drama:
  • Simon: “This Jags team, it's bizarro world. They just dominate this Colts team... doesn't matter if it's Minshew or Trevor Lawrence, they keep winning this matchup.” (06:29)
  • Chad: “Credit to Trevor Lawrence, credit to Liam Coen... this team has been different with Jacoby Myers.” (08:39)
  • Notable Sequence: Jonathan Taylor fumble leads to Travis Etienne touchdown. Jags roll early, game out of reach after Daniel Jones' injury.

3. Browns vs. Titans

• Cleveland's defense collapses, Titans bully their way to a win:
  • Simon (frustrated): “Your job is not to let me bet these damn Titans games... I'm banning us, legit. I'm gonna kill you if you let us play this Titans team again.” (11:07)
  • Chad: “It just cratered from there... even the Browns defense, which deserves a lot of the blame could not stop anything.” (13:18)
  • Stat: Shedor Sanders throws for 364 yards, Tony Pollard rushes for 164.
  • Lesson: Both hosts vow to avoid betting Titans games due to unpredictability.

4. Dolphins vs. Jets

• Miami cruises, Jets lost after Tyrod Taylor injury:
  • Simon: “Once Tyrod Taylor got knocked out, they bring in the backup, it's just totally dead. Miami... dominated.” (16:42)
  • Chad: “They were dropping passes everywhere... I took that one out of the multi view before it was over.” (18:11)
  • Moment: Isaiah Williams’ punt return TD for Jets is a rare highlight in a blowout.

5. Saints vs. Buccaneers

• Weather-impacted grind; Saints rise as underdogs:
  • Simon: “Just another game where it's hard to take much away for because of the weather... but anytime we need to make a play with his legs, Shuck made a play... that's what he gave us.” (19:56)
  • Trend Highlight: “This Saints team in division now 9–0 on the road as an underdog.” (21:42)
  • Chad: “Foreshadowing... he might be one of our heroes of the week.” (21:42)
  • Saints defense: Big stops in crucial moments, capitalizes on Baker Mayfield struggles.

6. Rams vs. Cardinals

• Comprehensive rout by the Rams:
  • Chad: “There was about five minutes where I was worried and then I wasn't worried anymore.” (24:37)
  • Simon: “It was just what we talked about, the perfect spot after a bad loss on the road. McVay owns the month of December.” (24:49)
  • Stat: Rams average 9.2 yards/play in the first half; Stafford finishes three TDs, pulled with 11 mins left.

Wild Game of the Week

Bills vs. Bengals – The “Belushi-esque” Game

• Snow, chaos, wild swings
  • Chad: “There are games that are drunk, and then there are games that are drunk... that's what this game was.” (34:10)
  • Simon: “You nailed it with the Bengals — the number is probably too big... just keeps hitting every week. Bills team, honestly, the game went the way I thought it was.” (35:05)
  • Key Sequence (mid-4th quarter):
    • Bills down 28-18.
    • Josh Allen: 50-yard TD run. (37:47)
    • Next Bengals pass: Pick-six, Bills take the lead.
    • Next Bengals pass: Another pick, Bills score again going for it on 4th down.
    • Bengals rapidly answer with a TD in 50 seconds for the backdoor cover.
  • Chad: “Bengals cover... truly a miracle of a game, so much fun in the snow...” (39:23)
  • Simon: “Anytime you win a contest line when the two doesn’t hit, honestly the best...” (36:33)

Other Key Discussions & Insights

Steelers vs. Ravens

• Steelers embody “Tomlin voodoo,” Ravens look lost:
  • Chad: “More like brass brains, Simon, because we got everything wrong about this one.” (39:50)
  • Simon: “Pittsburgh... You want to move on from Tomlin? I don’t know if that’s the move... all the voodoo Pittsburgh Tomlin voodoo... they are 7-6 on top of their division.” (43:23)
  • Context: Ravens' rumored locker room drama, Tomlin's job security debated, hosts regret fading the Steelers in this spot.

Packers Playoff Potential

• Chad: “For a team that is dominating in the most important stats... I trust the Rams, I trust the Seahawks a lot more than the Packers right now.” (48:34)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Jags/Colts:

  “This Jags team, it’s bizarro world. They just dominate this Colts team.” – Simon Hunter (06:29)

• On Titans Betting:

  “Your job is not to let me bet these damn Titans games… I’m banning us, legit.” – Simon Hunter (11:07)

• On Bills-Bengals Snow Bowl:

  “There are games that are drunk... then there are games that are drunk that also dipped into the alley... that's what this game was.” – Chad Millman (34:10)

• On Saints Trend:

  “That crazy trend... this Saints team in division now 9–0 on the road as an underdog.” – Simon Hunter (21:42)

• On Pittsburgh Fandom:

  “Pittsburgh fans, take a breath… this is what Tomlin does.” – Simon Hunter (43:23)

“Shame On You / Hero” Segment (Timestamps: ~50:47–61:50)

Shame On You

• Simon blasts NFL Red Zone:

  “For something we’re paying for, they promised us one or two 30-second commercials… just shame, shame, shame on you Red Zone…” (50:57–52:19)

• Chad goes after Browns defense:

  “If you’re giving up 290 total yards in the game and 184 of those are on the ground… have some freakin’ pride, Cleveland Browns!” (55:55)

Hero of the Week

• Chad: Saints rookie QB Tyler Shough

  “He ran the ball 77 times for 55 yards, two TDs… he gave the Saints the upset moneyline win... you deserve your epsom salt bath tonight, old man.” (61:02)

• Simon: Vikings QB JJ McCarthy

  “Tons of respect for the kid… he’s become that type of meme… came out today and played within the system… he’s my hero of the week.” (61:50–63:59)

Early Week 15 Lines & Leans (Timestamps: 65:26–70:33)

• Saints (+2.5 vs. Panthers):
  Both hosts consider this sneaky and want to be patient for public line movement.
• Bucs (-4.5 vs. Falcons):
  Simon: “Anything under 7, I’m going to hammer against this Atlanta team… they’re just so bad.” (66:45)
• Rams (-4.5 vs. Lions):
  Simon prefers Rams, expects public to jump on Detroit off Goff trends.
• Vikings (+6 vs. Cowboys):
  Simon leans Vikings, citing Dallas’s vulnerable D and KOC’s schemes.
• Packers (-2.5 vs. Broncos):
  Both see Green Bay as a better team but acknowledge a tricky spot.

Other Segments & Memorable Notes

• Red Zone Commercials Mini-Rant:
  Simon details his frustration, shares that he even wrote a physical letter to the NFL’s office to complain. (53:33–55:19)

• Mike Tomlin's Value:
  Repeated consensus that firing Tomlin would be madness; Pittsburgh’s under-30 roster is a bigger issue than coaching. (45:53)

Contest Recap & Record (71:37)

• Winning picks: Rams -9.5, Jags +2.5, Saints +8.5
• Losing picks: Browns -3.5, Jets +2.5
• Week: 3–2 to start new contest

Final Takeaways

• The podcast was a blend of acute betting strategy, emotional fan/analyst reactions, and meta-angles (trends, public/sharp line movement, and how randomness always wins out).
• Major game stories were shaded through a betting lens, focusing on line movement, contest picks, and in-game swings.
• The hosts highlighted both their best calls (Saints, Rams) and “stupid” mistakes they vow not to repeat (Titans, fading Tomlin).
• Good-natured gripes about Red Zone and corporate over-commercialization rounded out the show.

Useful Timestamps

• Intro & opening ritual: 03:10
• Game recaps begin: 04:19 (Bears-Packers)
• Jags-Colts: 06:29
• Browns-Titans pain: 10:57
• Dolphins-Jets: 15:05
• Saints-Bucs: 19:09
• Rams-Cardinals: 24:05
• Bills-Bengals snowfest: 34:10
• Steelers-Ravens / Tomlin talk: 39:50
• Packers discussion: 48:34
• Shame/Hero segment: 50:47
• Early Week 15 bets: 65:26

The episode is essential for NFL bettors or fans who want to understand both the Xs and Os and the psychology behind sports wagering, all delivered in a tone that's both self-critical and entertaining.