The Herd with Colin Cowherd (Sharper Square) - NFL Week 15 Bets

Episode Date: December 10, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Episode Theme: Week 15 NFL Betting Analysis and Picks

Overview

Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down the entire NFL Week 15 betting slate, combining sharp insights, statistical trends, and genuine bettor angst. The episode features candid discussion about key matchups, market moves, team analytics, and buy-low/sell-high opportunities for betting. The duo opine on where the "wise guys" and the public are, make early leans, debate game theory, and reflect on notable storylines—both on-field and in the betting world.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Eagles Meltdown, Emotional Bettor Anguish

Timestamp: 02:56 – 05:18

• Simon consoles Chad after the Eagles’ excruciating loss, highlighting Jalen Hurts’ meltdown (4 INTs), missed opportunities, and a tough betting beat.
• Chad jokes: “It's not a safe space. This is what the people want. They love miserable Eagles fans. I know you sick bastards.” (03:22)
• Discussion of coin-flip losses, Lane Johnson's absence, and the Eagles' brutal fall from grace post-hard knocks.

2. Reviewing Last Week’s Picks / Contest Update

Timestamp: 06:11 – 06:35

• 3–2 week in contest picks; Saints, Rams, Colts were wins; Jets & Browns were losses.
• Overall contest record is 39–31 through 14 weeks.

3. Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs. Buccaneers

Timestamp: 06:35 – 09:38

• Falcons (+4) at Buccaneers: Wise guys inexplicably still backing Atlanta despite injuries (Drake London out) and one-dimensional offense.
• Simon: “Why does everyone keep betting the Falcons?” (07:27)
• Chad: “Anytime you win with Kirk, it feels like you've gotten away with one this year…so I’ll grab this Bucs side on Thursday.” (08:25)
• Consensus: Leaning Tampa Bay—better spot, more to play for, Atlanta too banged up.

4. Chargers vs. Chiefs: Can You Bet Either?

Timestamp: 09:38 – 17:02

• Both hosts torn: Chargers plucky but lucky, Chiefs unreliable ATS and injury-riddled.
• Simon: “Chiefs as a home divisional favorite with Mahomes: 47% ATS—and that was when they were good.” (11:40)
• Chad notes KC’s offensive issues, but sees value in public overreaction and cold weather hurting Herbert.
• Key quote: “The vibes could not be lower for this Chiefs team. Is this not rock bottom?” - Chad (15:41)
• Leans: Chad on Chiefs in a cold-weather bounceback, Simon hesitant but respects the logic.

5. Jets vs. Jaguars: Wait and See Approach

Timestamp: 17:10 – 21:45

• Jags favored by 11.5; QB situation in flux for the Jets complicates everything.
• Chad: “If it’s Fields, this is actually … a good number, right? For Fields against this Jags team.” (18:37)
• Simon details Jacoby Myers’ impact, praises Jags’ coaching upgrade (Liam Coen), but ultimately, both would wait for injury news to bet this confidently.

6. Bills vs. Patriots: One of the Most Split Games

Timestamp: 21:48 – 25:24

• Money and pros on NE despite “fraudulent” 10-game win streak; Buffalo seen as inconsistent but dangerous in cold, physical games.
• Chad: “Professionals believe in your team, which I…am truly shocked by.” (26:21)
• Both want to see if line moves to favor Buffalo as underdogs.

7. Cards at Texans: Buy Low, Sell High?

Timestamp: 27:21 – 30:43

• Texans up to -9.5/-10 after Chiefs win; Chad and Simon flag it as a classic spot to grab Arizona plus the big number, especially as Houston could be overvalued and Arizona gets healthier.
• Simon: “As soon as we get off this call, I’m going to go hammer that number.” (30:43)

8. Raiders at Eagles: Ref Rants & Betting Chaos

Timestamp: 43:12 – 50:42

• Extended rant on meaningless field goal covers, officiating chaos, and rumors of “rigged” games after Raiders blow the cover versus Broncos.
• Simon wishes for a broader instant replay/review menu from NFL headquarters, suggesting “just fix it in the moment.” (47:48)
• Game lean: Eagles, assuming Lane Johnson returns. If not, possibly a pass.

Betting Leans & Analysis by Game (w/ Timestamps)

| Game | Timestamp | Millman’s Lean (if any) | Hunter’s Lean (if any) | Notable Quotes/Notes | |-----------------------------------|---------------|---------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | Falcons at Buccaneers | 06:35–09:38 | Bucs (-4) | Bucs last-minute spot | “On a short week … couldn’t ask for a worse spot for Atlanta.” (08:25)| | Chargers at Chiefs | 09:38–17:02 | Lean Chiefs IF weather affects Herbert | Would pick Chargers if forced | “[Chargers] got away with it … but this has to be a spot you back the Chiefs.” (13:14)| | Jets at Jaguars | 17:10–21:45 | Wait-and-see, lean Jags if no Fields | Wait-and-see, maybe Jets Sunday | “I wanted to be on the Jets, but...” (18:37) | | Bills at Patriots | 21:48–26:45 | Wants Bills as underdog | Split; watching line movement | “Early money has been the Patriots. But I'm dug in—Josh Allen ain't dead yet.” (26:45)| | Cards at Texans | 27:21–30:43 | Cards (+10) if it gets to double digits | Cards (+10) at double digits | “It’s a tough, tough bet … As soon as we get off this call, I'm going to go hammer that number.” (30:43)| | Ravens at Bengals | 36:07–38:48 | Model says Bengals, but heart says Ravens | Knows he should be Bengals | “There’s just a lot of off-field drama … Raven statement, all bad in locker room.” (37:15)| | Browns at Bears | 38:53–41:58 | Browns if +7.5; would take Bears if -6.5 | Leans Browns at big number | “This Bears defense is suspect … This probably is the right time to jump off this Bears train.” (40:17)| | Raiders at Eagles | 43:03–50:42 | Only bets Eagles if Lane Johnson’s back | Wait for Lane Johnson status | “I think Lane Johnson will be back but this is a great spot...Geno Smith outdoors.” (49:22)| | Giants at Commanders | 50:42–52:11 | Would bet Commanders for pools | Pass on betting either | “There's so many good games this week. I will totally happily not have this on any TV.” (51:57)| | Lions at Rams | 52:11–56:08 | Rams (-5 or -5.5) - loves the matchup | Quiet confidence on Rams | “This is probably the best game of the week … I just love watching this Rams team so much.” (54:49)| | Panthers at Saints | 58:51–61:30 | Saints (+2.5) - “Simon Says” (Best Bet) | Loves Saints in this spot | “Not only is [Bryce Young] a road favorite for the first time—he's getting 87% of the bets...” (61:45)| | Packers at Broncos | 62:36–65:55 | Chad’s Choice - Packers (-2) | With Chad on Packers | “We got to go with the Packers. Chad’s choice.” (63:08) | | Titans at 49ers | 65:55–67:35 | Will not bet due to total unpredictability | Likes 49ers’ spot if forced | “If you’ve been following the trend, hammer Tennessee.” (67:35) | | Colts at Seahawks | 67:35–71:03 | Seattle if Phil Rivers doesn’t play; otherwise pass | Pass unless Rivers plays | “If it's not Riley Leonard and it’s the other backup … you can't make me take it.” (68:31)| | Vikings at Cowboys | 71:26–72:41 | Vikings at +6 or +6.5 | Likes Vikings at +6, hesitant | “I think six is a good number for Minnesota.” (72:41) | | Dolphins at Steelers (SNF) | 73:01–76:05 | Miami +3.5, but worried about the freeze | Leaning Pittsburgh (-3) | “Miami probably is the right side, but the freeze has scared me off.” (74:48)|

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On gambler misery:
  “It's not a safe space. This is what the people want. They love miserable Eagles fans. I know you sick bastards.” – Chad (03:22)

• On market moves:
  “Why does everyone keep betting the Falcons?” – Simon (07:27)

• On betting pain:
  “If you have been following the trend, hammer Tennessee.” – Simon (67:35)

• On officiating woes:
  “It would increase the quality of the game. It would eliminate so much of the conversation about how bad the refs are… Expand the menu.” – Simon (47:48)

• On Rams-Lions matchup:
  “This is probably the best game of the week… I just love watching this Rams team so much.” – Chad (54:49)

• On tracking picks:
  “I get a new [notebook] each year. Just fill it up with Sharper Square stuff.” – Simon (77:02)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Eagles post-mortem & Chad’s vent: 02:56 – 05:18
• Falcons-Bucs (Thursday outlook): 06:35 – 09:38
• Chargers-Chiefs conundrum: 09:38 – 17:02
• Bills-Patriots market battle: 21:48 – 26:45
• Rams-Lions (favorite play): 52:11 – 56:08
• Panthers-Saints “Simon Says”: 58:51 – 61:30
• Packers-Broncos “Chad’s Choice”: 62:36 – 65:55
• Island Games (primetime): 71:26 – 76:05

Betting Slate Summary

Best Bets Called Out:

• Saints +2.5 (“Simon Says” – 59:13)
• Rams -5 (“Quiet confidence” from both – 55:49)
• Packers -2 (“Chad’s Choice” – 64:28)
• Cards +10 (if available, sharp consensus spot – 30:43)

Games to Watch for Line Movement/Sunday Updates:

• Bills at Patriots (waiting for underdog value)
• Eagles injury status (Lane Johnson) before betting
• Jets QB situation for Jags matchup

Stay-aways / Watch-List:

• Commanders at Giants (“I will totally happily not have this on any TV.” – Chad, 51:57)
• Titans at 49ers (total unpredictability)
• Colts at Seahawks (wait for QB clarity)

Tone & Analysis Style

The discussion is fast, candid, and sometimes irreverent—hosts balance deep betting analysis with raw emotional reactions as fans and gamblers. They make their leans but acknowledge market fluidity and injury news, showing how the sharp process goes well beyond numbers to incorporate coaching, narratives, and even weather.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode…

• If you want sharp angles, big-picture context, and honest takes on where professionals and the public are on each Week 15 NFL game, this episode delivers.
• “Simon Says” and “Chad’s Choice” are their early favorite bets: Saints +2.5 and Packers -2, with Rams also strongly in play.
• The guys will finalize picks Sunday morning pending late-breaking line moves and injury news—watch on YouTube before kickoff.

Feedback is a Gift. Until next time, love you.
(77:34)