The Herd with Colin Cowherd – “Sharp or Square: NFL Week 15 Reaction”

Date: December 15, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Guest appearance: Matt Mitchell
Main Theme:
An in-depth, candid, and often passionate recap of NFL Week 15 results, focusing on betting decisions, key matchups, dramatic comebacks, costly injuries, and playoff picture shifts. The conversation delivers sharp betting insights with an irreverent and highly engaged tone.

Episode Overview

Chad and Simon, together with occasional guest Matt Mitchell, break down their betting performance and the biggest narratives from NFL Week 15. From upsets and injuries (Mahomes, Parsons, Adams) to improbable comebacks (Bills), sharp vs. square debates, and their own wins and misses, the show explores how the day’s chaos reflects the volatility and drama of the NFL—and sports betting.

Key Discussion Points & Game Insights

1. Betting Recap & State of the Hosts’ Picks

• Millman and Hunter open despondent about another potential “two-and-two” week, reviewing their contest picks: Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Packers (pending: Vikings).
• Notable Winners: Rams, Bills (remarkable comeback).
• Notable Losers: Chiefs (implosion, Mahomes done for the year), Packers.
• Teams they left out (Commanders, Saints) both covered—and won.

2. Chiefs-Chargers: The Fall of a Dynasty

[06:42] – [10:55]

• Devastating news: Patrick Mahomes tears his ACL; Chiefs eliminated from playoffs.
• Simon on the Chiefs’ collapse:

  “Ding dong, the witch is dead. Off with his head… This is a choke artist of a Chiefs team. They just completely fell apart.” (06:42–07:13)

• Chiefs surrender lead; Chargers outplay them in 2H. Betting lines moved from KC -3.5 to -6.5 pregame.
• Mahomes’ woes: Two red-zone interceptions, offense implodes.
• The hosts lament their “horrible read,” but credit Chargers & Justin Herbert’s resilience:

  “They just, they lost it. They deconstructed. They imploded is the word I’m looking for.” – Chad (09:41)

3. Bills-Patriots: Comeback for the Ages

[11:10] – [19:25]

• Bills surmount a 21-0 first-half deficit to stun New England. Betting focus was on Bills -1.5.
• Matt Mitchell (Bills fan) shares his coping mantra:

  “I was not going to let a regular season Buffalo Bills game ruin my entire lovely Sunday with my family…” (12:18)

• Adorable anecdote: Mitchell’s daughter rewarded post-comeback with a “cookie in a bubble bath.”
• Early officiating set the misfortune for Buffalo. Patriots rookie Drake May dazzled initially, but was smothered by the Bills’ time-of-possession/ground attack in the 2H.
• Simon’s “live-betting” moment:

  “They showed Josh on the sideline…this is exactly the moment we’re always supposed to bet Josh Allen live.” (15:39)

• Second half: Bills dominate, outgain NE by 200+ yards; Allen leads five straight scoring drives.
• Officiating controversies and demand for instant review.
• Simon:

  "It’s football, right? Where every year it can totally flip and change...and now it just comes crashing and burning." (07:36)

• Chad:

  “We love Josh Allen. We’re so happy for him…Kryptonite’s gone, too! He doesn’t have to worry about the big bad wolf, the Chiefs.” (19:04)

4. Rams-Lions: Offense-Heavy, Second-Half Adjustments

[20:17] – [24:39]

• Rams (-5.5) overcome first-half explosion from Detroit (esp. via Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown) after Stafford’s pick.
• Simon: “Did not see Goff having that first half…came out firing, then didn’t adjust to the second half.”
• McVay’s halftime adjustments—punishing run game (159 yds), Puka Nacua explodes (career-best 181 yds).
• Rams’ depth, health, and balance on both sides separate them after halftime.

5. Packers-Broncos: Missed Opportunities & Bo Nix’s Arrival

[24:42] – [28:16]

• Packers settle for field goals; unable to contain Bo Nix, who posts 4 TDs/300 yds.
• Key stat: GB #1 red-zone team falters vs Denver’s elite red-zone defense.
• Simon:

  “Anytime we bet against Bo Nix, he throws for 300 yards and four touchdowns…We can no longer say the Packers are a good defense.” (26:06)

6. Massive Injury News—Changing of the Guard?

[27:40] – [28:16]

• Patrick Mahomes (ACL), Micah Parsons (believed torn ACL), Davante Adams (hamstring), Joe Burrow clarification.
• Chad: “A lot of bad news for the biggest and brightest names, and the teams that everybody counts on year after year…Changing of the guard happening.”

7. Games Left Out & Rapid-Fire Betting Debates

[34:55] – [40:35]

• Panthers-Saints: Carolina covers, nearly wins outright after late-game dramatics from Tyler Shough.
  • Simon gushes over Shough: “It’s crazy how good this kid is…totally flipped this team around.” (36:33)
• Giants-Commanders: Regret at omitting Washington. “Shame on us.” Commanders dominate, but rookie Dart can’t complete comeback.
• Key stat: Teams shut out previous week are now 5–0 ATS following week.

8. NFC Hierarchy & 49ers-Rams Debate

[40:46] – [42:43]

• Audience question: Are the 49ers the team to beat?
  • Chad: “I don’t know how we can say that right now with the Rams playing the way they’re playing…I just feel like the Rams have a better roster.”
• Simon points out 49ers’ “cupcake schedule,” injuries, and questions impact for upcoming tough games.

9. Shame/Blame & Hero of the Week

[42:43] – [47:59]

• Shame On:
  • Simon: Patriots fans “took the most insane victory lap” early, only to watch Josh Allen and the Bills storm back.
  • Chad: Chiefs’ front office—failure to build/develop depth around Mahomes, never fixing O-line or receiver issues.
• Hero Of The Week:
  • Simon: Tyler Shough (Saints) for late-game heroics, both passing and running.
  • Chad: Philip Rivers!!!!!

    “Philip Rivers came off the bench where he’s been sitting for five years and had his team in the lead with like late, late, late in the fourth quarter against one of the best defenses in the NFL…”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon: “Ding dong, the witch is dead. Off with his head. It’s over, Chiefs fans…You guys haven’t drafted well either. Shit, it might be dark, dark days ahead.” (06:42)
• Matt Mitchell: “If the Bills come back and win, I’ll get you…You can do anything you want. [My daughter] goes, I want to eat a cookie in a bubble bath…She had a great afternoon too.” (13:09)
• Simon: “I gotta shame on you to all these Patriots fans. Oh my God, were they loud and cocky…amateur hour, taking a victory lap in a divisional game against Josh Allen when you’re up 21 nothing.” (42:43)
• Chad: “How do you not shame the Chiefs? …they kind of didn’t have the talent to do what they needed to do. Shame on the Chiefs personnel team for not building a roster that could make Patrick Mahomes continue to be the hero.” (45:34)
• Simon: “He fat picked the entire game. Just could not…like, my buddy turned to me, he’s like, is he wearing like a flak jacket? I was like, no, that’s just his…You’re seeing a pork 45-year-old.” [On Rivers] (50:00)
• Chad: “Philip Rivers not just covered a double-digit number, he almost pulled off the upset. Five years since he last played. He became a grandfather since he last played.” (49:24)
• Simon: “Teams that get shut out the week before are now 5-0 ATS following week. It’s crazy. It’s on a crazy run.” (40:35)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [06:42] – Chiefs collapse and Mahomes injury
• [12:18] – Matt Mitchell’s family wisdom/advice for handling Bills heartbreak
• [15:39] – Live-betting Josh Allen and Bills-Patriots narrative
• [21:18] – Lions-Rams: Battle of adjustments, offensive showcase
• [24:42] – Packers-Broncos: Bo Nix’s coming-out party
• [27:40] – Injury roundup (Mahomes, Parsons, Adams)
• [34:55] – Panthers-Saints ending and analysis
• [40:46] – 49ers vs Rams in the NFC
• [42:43] – Shame on Patriots fans (Simon)/Chiefs front office (Chad)
• [46:36] – Hero of the week picks: Shough and Philip Rivers

Early Betting Leans & Next Week Looking Ahead

• Carolina +1.5 vs. Tampa Bay (home dog), “You know what we’re going to do there.”
• Bears +2.5 vs. Green Bay, with a strong run game vs injury-ravaged Packers.
• Chargers +1.5 vs. Dallas—Herbert as a dog continues to be money.
• Patriots +2.5 or +3 vs. Ravens: “Backing Vrabel and New England as a road dog.”

Tone & Takeaways

The episode is fast-paced, irreverent, and data-rich, matching the “wise guy” vs. “square” motif: acknowledging their mistakes, celebrating madness, and highlighting the edge of real sports betting. The hosts debate and banter in a conversational style, balancing sharp handicapping with fan excitement and pop-culture references. The focus is on learning from the past week to inform better bets for next week, while never taking themselves too seriously.

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